المؤتمر الاول لإدارة الازمات و الكوارث و الحد م اخطارها نحو فعالية افضل للحد من اخطار الكوارث Thursday, April 23, 2009 http://www.eip.gov.eg/crisisCD/Main.htm

1. Climate change and
agriculture
Mahmoud Medany
Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate
rumedany@yahoo.com

4. Bulgaria, 2005
www.bnt.bg

5. Tschierva

7. Extreme events

8. Coastal defences, Giao Thuy District

9. Collective action for water management

10. Claims of insured farmers, Austria 2006

15. Sidi-salim 2100
Damitta 2100
Mtobas Hamul
Kafrsaad
Alex. Portsaid
Kafr addawar
Impact of climate change on SLR in relation to land loss in the
Nile Delta on 2100 using A1 scenario (low aerosol level ).
2100
2100
Impact of climate change and land subsidence on SLR in
relation to land loss in the Nile Delta on 2100 using A1 scenario
More than 200 m. (low aerosol level ).
200 – 100
Land Loss
Elevations
100 – 50
50 – 20
20-10
10-0 300 150 0 300
Km.
Less than 0

16. ‫ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺎت دﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﺳﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺎخ اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل: ﺷﻬﺮ ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ ﺑﻨﻤﻮذج 3‪ CCM‬اﻟﻴﺎﺑﺎﻧﻲ‬

17. Al Gore
Understanding
Earth system

18. Al Gore
What might
seen

19. Insects

20. • TAR
• AR4
• SRES
• SPM
• TP water
• Impacts
• Vulnerability
• Adaptation
• Mitigation
• GHG
• GHG inventories
• SLR
• UNFCCC
• IPCC
• WMO
• NC
• NIR
• COP13

21. Global Environment Facility
(GEF)
• Established 1991 to forge international
cooperation and finance actions to address
critical threats to global environment
• Projects and addresses global environment
within the frame work of country priorities
• GEF provided approximately US$ 1.8 billion
in grants from GEF grants to climate change
activities.
• An additional US$ 9 billion from bi-lateral
and national resources

22. Cooperation Mechanisms
• Special Climate Change Fund
• Least Developed Countries Fund
• Global Environment Facility (GEF) Trust
Fund
• Clean Development Mechanism

23. GEF Implementing Agencies
UNDP
UNDP UNEP
UNEP World Bank
World Bank
UNDP UNEP World
technical global/ Bank
assistance / regional investment
capacity and trans- projects
building boundary
projects projects,
support
STAP

24. GEF Thematic Areas
• Biodiversity
• Climate Change
• International Waters
• Ozone Depletion
• Land Degradation
• Persistent Organic Pollutants – POPs

25. A Short History of the Framework
Convention on Climate Change
• 1979 First World Climate Conference
• 1987 Montreal Protocol signed in Montreal
• 1988 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
established
• 1990 Second World Climate Conference
• 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) signed at
the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio
• 1995 The First Session of the Conference of the Parties to the
FCCC (ratifying States) in Berlin [Berlin Mandate established [
• 1996 The Second Session of the Conference of Parties (COP2) in
Geneva
• 1997 Meetings of the Ad hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate (AGBM )
• 1997 The Third Session of the Conference of Parties (COP3) in
Kyoto.

26. About IPCC
Established by WMO and UNEP 1988:
• Assess scientific, technical and socio-
economic information on climate change,
impacts and options for adaptation and
mitigation
• Publication of reports
• No research, no monitoring, no
recommendations
• Policy relevant but not policy prescriptive
• Extensive review processes of its reports
• Support to UNFCCC

27. About IPCC: organisation
WMO/UNEP
IPCC
IPCC Chair
IPCC Bureau
Working group I Working Group II Working Group III Task Force on
Science Impact and Adaptation Mitigation National GHG inventories
Technical Support Unit Technical Support Unit Technical Support Unit Technical Support Unit
UK USA Netherlands Japan

28. OUTLINE FOR WORKING GROUP II : IPCC FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY
Summary for Policymakers + Technical Summary
Introduction
I. ASSESSMENT OF OBSERVED CHANGES
1. Assessment of Observed Changes in Natural and Managed Systems
II. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: SECTORS AND SYSTEMS
2. New Methods and Scenarios of the Future
3. Fresh Water Resources and their Management
4. Ecosystems and their Services
5. Food, Fibre, Forestry, and Fisheries
6. Coasts and Low-lying Areas
7. Industry, Settlement, and Society
8. Human Health
III. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION:REGIONS
9: Africa, 10: Asia, 11: Australia and New Zealand, 12: Europe, 13: Latin America
14: North America, 15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic), 16: Small Islands
IV. ASSESSMENT OF RESPONSES TO IMPACTS
17. Assessment of Adaptation Options, Capacity and Practice
18. Assessment of Inter-relationships between Adaptation and Mitigation
19. Assessing key vulnerabilities
20. Perspectives on Climate Change and Sustainability

29. Main greenhouse gases
CO2 Carbon dioxide
CH4 Methane
N2O Nitrous oxide
PFCs Perfluorocarbons
HFCs Hydrofluorocarbons
SF6 Sulphur hexafluoride
Indirect greenhouse gases
CO Carbon monoxide
NOX Nitrogen oxides
NMVOCs Non-methane volatile organic compounds
SOX Sulphur oxides

30. Contributions to radiative forcing
in the late 1990s (TAR)

31. Although the GWPs have been updated
by the IPCC, estimates of emissions
and removals reported under the
UNFCC should continue to use the
GWPs from the Second Assessment
Report (SAR .(
The guidelines under which
inventories are developed, the
Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for
National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories (IPCC/UNEP/OECD/IEA
1997) and the UNFCCC Reporting
Guidelines for national inventories
were developed prior to the
publication of the TAR .
Therefore, to comply with
international reporting
standards under the UNFCCC,
official emission estimates are
to be reported by Parties using Figure .. Importance of GWP
SAR GWP values.

32. Sectorial Emissions in Egypt (1990/1991)
% Total Emissions
% CH4 Emissions
% N2O Emissions

33. Sources of GHG from Agriculture
Enteric Fermentation
Manure Management
Agricultural Soils
Rice Cultivation
Field burning of Agricultural Residues

34. Emissions from Agriculture (1990/1991 GWPs)
Sector Gas Emissio GWPs CO2 Egu.
ns (Gg) (Gg)
Agriculture CO2 1
CH4 543 21 11403
N2O 21 310 6510
Total 17913
Grand Total 116608
(of all sectors)

36. Alternative Scenario Formulations
Quantitative
Models
Scenarios
Story lines
Qualitative
Source: IPCC SRES, 2000

37. Figure 1: Scenario developed by the US Pentagon for the period
2010-2020 following a hypothetical thermohaline circulation
shutdown in 2010 (Schwartz and Randall, 2003).

38. The scenario dimensions

40. Anomalies of temperature in the Northern hemisphere
during the last 2000 years

41. Anomalies of air temperature in the Northern hemisphere
during the instrumental measurements

42. Annual temperature trends during different periods
in the 20th century

43. Annual precipitation trends
1901-1995

44. Previous developed and used
scenarios by IPCC
1992 1995 1996 2000 2001 2004 ????
SixIS92scenarios
EvaluationScenarios TAR StartwritingAR5
Paneldecision StartwritingAR4
newscenarios
Special Report
EmissionScenarios(SRES)
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

45. Possible direct
consequences of
climate change

46. Agriculture sensitivity to climate
• Effect on crops
Incoming solar radiation regulates
photosynthesis processes
Air temperature controls the duration of
General Constraints
the growing period and other Incoming solar radiation
processes linked with the accumulation Temperature
of dry matter (i.e. leaf area expansion, Water and nutrient availability
respiration)
Rainfall and soil water availability
Local Constraints
affects the duration of growth (i.e leaf Late spring and early autumn
area duration and photosynthetic frosts
efficiency) Heat stresses
• Effect on animals Hails and storms
metabolic processes (direct effect)
forage quality and quantity (indirect
effect)
ACACIA, 1999

47. Direct consequences of CC on agro-ecosystems
Yields of grains and other crops could decrease
substantially across the Mediterranean region
due to increased frequency of drought, even if
potential production should raise thanks to
increased CO2 concentrations. Some crops
(e.g. maize) could be forced out of production.
Livestock production would suffer due to a
deterioration in the quality of rangeland
associated with higher concentrations of
atmospheric carbon dioxide and to changes in
areas of rangeland (increase of unproductive
shrubland and desert).

48. Influence on crop production
Main evidences
Current differences in crop productivity between northern
and southern countries will increase under climate change
Inter-annual variability of crop yields will increase,
especially in regions, such southern Europe, where crop production is
affected by water shortages
Adaptive strategies (changing variety and altering sowing date)
may alleviate yield losses by reducing the risk of low yields in most
situations
Future research will have to quantify the uncertainties within
climate change impacts assessments to produce confidence intervals
for each result

49. Influence on livestock systems
Main evidences
Changes in availability and prices of grains for feeding
(cereals, pulses and other feed grains)
Changes in productivity of pastures and forage crops
Change in distribution of livestock diseases
Changes in animal health, growth, and reproduction
(direct effects of weather and extreme events)
Change in the turn-over and losses of nutrients from
animal manure, both in houses, storages and in the field
manure
influencing the availability of manure in organic farms

50. Possible indirect
consequences of
climate change

51. Indirect consequences
• Crop production would be further threatened by
increases in competition for water from other
sectors.
• World prices for many key commodities such as
wheat, maize, soybean meal and poultry could
rise significantly as a result of global climate
changes and macroeconomic factors.
• Not only might Mediterranean countries loose in
economic terms, but the combination of
population growth, higher prices and yield losses
would lead to a deterioration in levels of food
security in particularly in southern countries.

52. Competition for water resources
• In relatively water-abundant and developed
communities, competition is between consumptive
and non-consumptive uses, in water-scarce ones
uses
competition still primarily results from the
difficulty of satisfying the increasing demands for
‘traditional’ consumptive water uses.
• In the Mediterranean basin both forms of
competition can be observed, but countries on the
southern shores are experiencing a continuous
decrease in their ability to satisfy ‘basic needs’

53. A first conclusion
• Climate change tends to exacerbate existing
environmental and socioeconomic problems
(desertification, food security, etc.), rather
than creating new ones, but the concurrent
macroeconomic trends could lead to
amplified negative interactions between
environmental and economic variable and
amplified social impacts. Water resources
are the main source of concern.

54. Drought in Egypt – 1979 -1987

55. Wind Khamaseen in Egypt
desert road in Egypt

56. Effects of rising temperature of the water Cycle
More extreme weather
High Increase the Drought
temperature speed of the Storms
water cycle Floods
Increase intensity
of drought
Increase the flood

57. Causes of desertification
Human activities:
• Global climate change
• Extinction of biodiversity
• Contamination and pollution
of air ,water, and land
• Enrichment of the resources
with persistent organic
pollutants
• Removal of biomass for fuel
• Over cultivation
• Overgrazing
• Mismanagement of water
resources
• Land mining
Climate variations

58. Salinity
About 2 million fed. suffer
from Stalinization
problems.
60% of the cultivated lands of
Northern
Delta region are salt affected.
Due to:
• The misuse of irrigation
water .
• Improper field drainage
systems .
( 4 million acres of 7.4 million have
been provided with field drainage
systems).

59. Urbanization
•Urban encroachment and soil scarping.
•Losses was estimated by about 20,000
Fed. / year).
Urbanization is expected to rise in a
“business-as –usual “ scenario

60. Loss Of
Productive land

61. Seawater Intrusion
Efforts to
prevent
Salinization
of the
productive
agricultural
soils and
to conserve
the sea
shore-line
from sea
water
intrusion

62. Water logging
Med. Sea
Marsa matroh
Water Erosion

63. Soil Erosion
Sand Dune
encroachment

64. Conservation of land Resources from
pollution
Cause :
The extensive use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides
and agrochemicals amendments .
led to :
Excessive leaching of nitrates to the water table and further to the
groundwater resources causing health and environmental hazards .
Approached by :
Research and extension activities.
Public awareness efforts.
Introduction of Integrated Pest Management practices.
Restrictive rules for importing and using pesticides.
Rational use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides.

65. Frost
High temperature will affect the thermal requirements and cooling
requirements of the Securities fallen fruit, which may affect the spread of
the cultivation of some crops such as apples, peaches, pears.

66. Potato

67. Assessment of the impact of climate change
and adaptation on potato production
Single effect of different planting dates (Second cultivation), irrigation
requirements level on simulated potato production with climate change
Scenarios (A1, A2, B1, and B2) for the years 2025s, 2050s, 2075s and 2100s.
Tuber fresh yield (kg/ha)
2005 2025s 2050s 2075s 2100s
Difference difference difference Difference
Treatments Current Estimated % Estimated % Estimated % Estimated %
80% 24730 23591 -4.7 24157 -2.4 24715 -1.2 24943 1.4
100% 25980 25033 -3.7 25863 -0.5 26137 1.5 26313 0.5
Irrigation 120% 25397 24458 -3.6 25060 -1.3 25428 0.1 25487 0.4
January 1st 25703 27102 5.6 28223 9.9 29068 13.2 29531 15
January 15th 25750 23048 -10.5 23887 -7.2 24234 -5.9 24467 -4.9
Planting
dates January 30th 24653 22931 -7.1 22970 -6.9 22977 -6.9 22744 -7.8
A1 25369 24402 -3.8 25147 -0.9 25547 0.6 25486 0.4
A2 25369 24423 -3.8 25147 -0.9 25697 1.2 25941 2.1
Climate B1 25369 24308 -4.2 24782 -2.4 25171 -0.8 25416 0.1
change
scenarios B2 25369 24308 -4.2 25031 -1.4 25291 -0.4 25480 0.4
Mean 25369 24360 -3.98 25027 -1.41 25426 0.16 25581 0.75

68. Single effect of different planting dates (first cultivation ), irrigation
requirements level on simulated potato production with climate change
Scenarios (A1, A2, B1, and B2) for the years 2025s, 2050s, 2075s and 2100s.
Tuber fresh yield (kg/ha)
2005 2025s 2050s 2075s 2100s
Treatments Current Estimated difference % Estimated difference % Estimated difference % Estimated difference %
80% 24587 30834 25.4 32843 40.8 35772 48.4 33418 51.8
100% 26110 31143 19.3 34591 28 35762 37.9 36642 31.8
Irrigation 120% 21957 27098 23.4 30043 38.8 31848 47.3 33063 52.9
30-Sep 32133 38078 18.5 40924 27.4 42528 32.4 40698 27.3
15-Oct 21777 27923 28.2 30454 40.8 32890 51.9 33554 55.0
Planting dates 30-Oct 18743 23075 23.1 26098 39.4 27964 49.3 28870 54.2
A1 25369 30087 18.6 33078 30.4 35236 38.9 35200 47.5
A2 25369 29696 17.1 33078 30.4 35828 41.2 37928 42.8
B1 25369 29318 15.6 31449 24 33131 30.6 33908 46.9
Climate change
scenario B2 25369 29667 16.9 32364 27.6 33648 32.6 30461 44.6
Mean 25369 29692 17 32492 35.9 34461 44.6 34374 45.5

69. Faba bean

70. Single effect of different planting dates and cultivars on simulated faba bean
production with climate change Scenarios.
2001 2025s 2050s 2075s 2100s
Treatments Current Estimated difference % Estimated difference % Estimated difference % Estimated difference %
Oct. 15th 3870 2925 -32.3 3236 -19.6 3505 -10.4 3763 -2.9
Nov. 1st 4041 3660 -10.4 4509 10.4 4983 18.9 5097 20.7
Planting
dates Nov. 15 th 3416 2484 -37.5 2974 -14.9 3317 -3.0 3578 4.5
Giza 717 3568 2793 -27.8 3303 -8.0 3633 1.8 3876 7.9
Giza 461 3809 3082 -23.6 3652 -4.3 4088 6.8 4416 13.7
Giza 643 4113 3381 -21.7 3903 -5.4 4211 2.3 4414 6.8
Cultivars Giza 3 3612 2836 -27.3 3434 -5.2 3807 5.1 3878 6.9
A1 3776 3095 -22.0 3593 -5.1 3963 4.7 4185 9.8
A2 3776 3007 -25.6 3609 -4.6 3957 4.6 4177 9.6
Climate B1 3776 2923 -29.2 3525 -7.1 3903 3.3 4022 6.1
change
scenario B2 3776 3067 -23.1 3564 -5.9 3916 3.6 4200 10.1
Mean 3776 3023 -25 3573 -6 3935 3 4146 8
Co2 330 413 495 578 660 ppm
Oct. 15th 3870 2572 -50.5 2523 -53.4 2531 -52.9 2565 -50.9
Nov. 1st 4041 3319 -21.7 3450 -17.1 3577 -13.0 3599 -12.3
Planting
dates Nov. 15th 3416 2103 -62.4 2148 -59.0 2168 -57.6 2166 -57.7
Giza 717 3568 2463 -44.8 2494 -43.1 2517 -41.7 2536 -40.7
Giza 461 3809 2652 -43.6 2730 -39.5 2833 -34.4 2903 -31.2
Giza 643 4113 3011 -36.6 3046 -35.0 3063 -34.3 3037 -35.5
Cultivars Giza 3 3612 2531 -42.7 2559 -41.2 2621 -37.8 2631 -37.3
A1 3776 2627 -43.7 2714 -39.1 2790 -35.3 2782 -35.7
A2 3776 2686 -40.6 2735 -38.0 2787 -35.5 2783 -35.6
Climate B1 3776 2736 -38.0 2675 -41.1 2722 -38.7 2755 -37.1
change
scenario B2 3776 2609 -44.7 2704 -39.6 2736 -38.0 2786 -35.5
Mean 3776 2664 -43 2707 -41 2759 -38 2777 -37
Co2 = 330 ppm

71. ‫اﻟﺘﺮﺑﺔ ‪Soil‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﺮﺑﺔ ﻓﻰ آﺜﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﺳﺘﻜﻮن اآﺜﺮ ﺟﻔﺎﻓﺎ‬
‫ً‬
‫درﺟﺎت اﻟﺤﺮارة اﻻﻋﻠﻰ ، وﻓﻲ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺤﺎﻻت اﻟﻤﻄﺮ اﻻﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻴﺴﺮع ﻣﻦ اﻧﺨﻔﺎض اﻟﻤﺎدة‬
‫اﻟﻌﻀﻮﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺮﺑﺔ .‬
‫اﻧﺨﻔﺎض اﻟﻤﺎدة اﻟﻌﻀﻮﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺮﺑﺔ ﺳﻴﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺪرة اﻟﺮﻳﺎح ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺎآﻞ اﻟﺘﺮﺑﺔ‬
‫اﻧﺨﻔﺎض ﺧﺼﻮﺑﺔ اﻟﺘﺮﺑﺔ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ اﻧﺨﻔﺎض رﻃﻮﺑﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫زﻳﺎدة ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎت ﺛﺎﻧﻲ اآﺴﻴﺪ اﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮن ﺳﻮف ﺗﺰﻳﺪ اﻟﺘﻤﺜﻴﻞ اﻟﻀﻮﺋﻲ ﺑﺪاﺧﻞ اﻟﻨﺒﺎت‬
‫ﻟﻠﻨﻴﺘﺮوﺟﻴﻦ اﻟﺬي ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺜﺒﻴﺘﺔ ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ اﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ اﻟﻨﺒﺎﺗﺎت‬

72. ‫ﺟﻮدة اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺤﺎﺻﻼت‬
‫‪Changes in Crop Quality‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎت اﻟﻤﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ 2‪ CO‬ﺳﻮف ﺗﺆدي اﻟﻰ ارﺗﻔﺎع ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮن ﻓﻰ‬
‫اﻟﺒﺬور وﺟﺬوع واﻻوراق ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﺎب اﻟﺒﺮوﺗﻴﻦ.‬
‫ارﺗﻔﺎع ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻟﺴﻜﺮ ﻓﻰ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎت اﻟﻐﺬاﺋﻴﺔ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻇﺮوف ﺗﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﻨﺎخ‬

73. ‫اﻻﻓﺎت واﻻﻣﺮاض واﻟﺤﺸﺮات‬
‫اﻟﺤﺸﺎﺋﺶ واﻻﻣﺮاض واﻟﺤﺸﺮات ﺳﻮف ﺗﻨﺘﺸﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻻدﻓﺄ اﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻻﺑﺮد‬
‫اﻟﺸﺘﺎء اﻻدﻓﺄ ﺳﻮف ﻳﺴﻤﺢ ﻟﻠﻴﺮﻗﺎت ﻟﻠﺘﺤﺮك اﻟﻰ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺟﺪﻳﺪة ﻟﻢ ﺗﻜﻦ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ‬
‫زﻳﺎدة ﻋﺪد اﺟﻴﺎل اﻟﺤﺸﺮات وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ زﻳﺎدة ﺗﻌﺪداهﺎ ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺤﻮﻟﻬﺎ ااﻟﻲ ﺷﻜﻞ وﺑﺎﺋﻲ‬
‫زﻳﺎدة ﺳﺮﻋﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﺎح ﺳﻮف ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻧﺘﺸﺎر اﻟﺤﺸﺮات واﻟﺠﺮاﺋﻴﻢ‬
‫هﻨﺎك ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮات ﻣﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺸﺮات اﻟﻤﺎﺷﻴﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻨﺒﺎﺗﺎت ﺳﻮف ﺗﻜﻮن اآﺜﺮ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﺻﺎﺑﺔ واﻟﺘﻰ ﺳﻮف ﺗﻜﻮن ﻓﻰ اﻟﻐﺎﻟﺐ ﻓﻰ ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺒﺒﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻤﺮﺿﻴﺔ واﻟﺘﻰ ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ اﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻓﻰ اﻟﺤﺮارة واﻟﺮﻃﻮﺑﺔ.‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﻨﺎخ ﺳﻮف ﻳﻜﻮن ﻟﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮات ﺳﻠﺒﻴﻪ واﻳﺠﺎﺑﻴﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺪل واﻧﺘﺸﺎر اﻷﻣﺮاض.‬
‫زﻳﺎدة اﻟﺤﺎﺟﺔ اﻟﻰ‬
‫اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻤﺒﻴﺪات‬

74. Forecasting of severity of leaf and stripe rust diseases of wheat, under
climate change in Egypt, during growing season 2050 using estimated
diseases severity in 2006 season , at different governorates
Leaf rust % Stripe rust %
Governorate
2006 2050 2006 2050
Ismailia 62.3 64.6 44.5 41.8
Sharkia 60.2 64.6 38.3 41.8
Bohaira 61.4 63.8 49.9 39.6
Gharbia 58.6 59.2 36.9 35.2
Kaf El-Sheikh 61.5 62.3 44.5 40.03
Dakahlia 61.8 63.8 41.6 38.5
Fayoum 11.2 12.03 11.3 8.27
Beni- Swief 9.27 10.27 5.7 4.5
-: ‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ان ﻣﺮض ﺻﺪأ اﻷوراق ﺳﻮف ﻳﺰداد ﻓﻰ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﻤﺮض اﻟﺼﺪأ اﻷﺻﻔﺮ ﺣﻴﺚ‬
.( %80-70 ‫1- ﻣﺮض ﺻﺪأ اﻷوراق ﻳﺤﺘﺎج درﺟﺎت ﺣﺮارة ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ )81-22 م5 ورﻃﻮﺑﺔ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﻪ‬
.(%70-60 ‫2- ﻣﺮض اﻟﺼﺪأ اﻷﺻﻔﺮ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ درﺟﺎت ﺣﺮارة ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ )01-81م5 ورﻃﻮﺑﺔ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬
Abolmaaty,S. M., 2006. Assessment of the impact of climate change on some rust diseases for wheat crops under Egyptian environmental conditions.
Ph.D. Thesis, Faculty of Agriculture, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt.
Al-

75. ‫اﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻓﻰ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺴﻤﺎد‬
Fertilizer Use Will Change
‫زﻳﺎدة اﻟﻤﻘﻨﻦ اﻟﻤﺎﺋﻲ اﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﺳﻮف ﻳﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ زﻳﺎدة ﻓﻰ ﻣﻌﺪل اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺴﻤﺎد ﻧﺤﻮ‬
‫اﻟﺰﻳﺎدة ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﺘﺮوﺟﻴﻦ‬
Table (4) Nitrogen, Phosphorus and potassium requirements for maize
under current and future climate change (2050) conditions.
Fertilization requirements (kg/fed.)
Current Climate % Current Climate % Current Climate %
Location
condition change Difference condition change Difference condition change Difference
Nitrogen Phosphorus Potassium
Wadi El-
Natron 108 114 5.6 % 36 38 5.6 % 54 57 5.6 %
Kafr
Elshiekh 95 101 6.3 % 32 33 3.1 % 48 52 7.3 %
Menia 114 121 6.1 % 39 42 7.7 5 57 61 7.0 %
Nekhel 100 105 5.0 % 32 34 6.3 % 52 56 7.7 %
Kharga 126 132 4.4 % 43 45 4.5 5 63 66 4.8 %
Abo Elkizan 104 107 3.2 % 35 36 3.1 % 52 54 3.8 %
Toshka 118 125 5.9 % 39 41 4.9 % 59 62 5.1 %
Mean 109 115 5.2 % 37 38 5.0 % 55 58 5.8 %

76. ‫اﻟﺘﺎﺛﻴﺮات ﻋﻠﻲ اﻻﺳﻤﺎك‬
‫‪Potential Impacts on Fish‬‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﻮﻟﺔ اﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﻤﺎك‬
‫زﻳﺎدة ﻃﻮل ﻓﺘﺮة اﻟﺼﻴﻒ‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﺮ ﻓﻰ ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ اﻻﺳﻤﺎك واﻣﺎآﻦ اﻟﺘﻜﺎﺛﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻈﺮوف اﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ اﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﺰﻳﺎدة‬
‫ﻧﻮع ﻣﻦ اﻻﺳﻤﺎك ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﺎب اﻻﺧﺮ‬
‫‪Livestock‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺎﺷﻴﺔ‬
‫ارﺗﻔﺎع درﺟﺔ اﻟﺤﺮارة ﻳﻘﻠﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮل اﻟﻠﺒﻦ‬
‫اﻧﺨﻔﺎض آﻔﺎءة اﻻﻧﺘﺎج اﻟﺤﻴﻮاﻧﻲ وارﺗﻔﺎع‬
‫ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ اﻧﺘﺎﺟﺔ ﻣﻊ ﻗﻠﺔ اﻻﻋﻼف اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻓﺮة‬

77. ‫اﻟﺘﻨﻮع اﻟﺒﻴﻮﻟﻮﺟﻲ واﻟﻨﻈﻢ اﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‬
‫‪Biological diversity and ecosystem‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﺮآﻴﺐ واﻟﺘﻨﻮع اﻟﺠﻐﺮاﻓﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﻢ اﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺳﻮف ﻳﺘﻐﻴﺮ آﺄﻧﻮاع ﻓﺮدﻳﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺠﻴﺐ ﻟﻈﺮوف ﺟﺪﻳﺪة ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺔ‬
‫ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ ﺗﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﻨﺎخ.‬
‫اﻟﻤﻮاﻃﻦ رﺑﻤﺎ ﺗﺘﺤﻄﻢ وﺗﺘﺠﺰأ ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﻠﻀﻐﻮط اﻟﺒﺸﺮﻳﺔ اﻷﺧﺮى.‬
‫اﻷﻧﻮاع اﻟﺘﻲ ﻻ ﺗﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﻴﻒ ﺑﺴﺮﻋﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ آﺎف رﺑﻤﺎ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﻣﻨﻘﺮﺿﺔ.‬
‫اﻷﻧﻮاع واﻟﻨﻈﻢ اﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻞ ﺑﺪأت ﺗﺴﺘﺠﻴﺐ ﻟﻠﺪفء اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ . وﻻﺣﻆ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﺎء ﺗﻐﻴﺮات ﻣﻨﺎﺧﻴﺔ ﻣﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫024 ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﺎﺋﻴﺔ وأﻧﻮاع ﺑﻴﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺔ وﻣﺠﺘﻤﻌﺎت . وﺗﺸﻤﻞ اﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮات هﺠﺮة اﻟﻄﻴﻮر اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺼﻞ ﻣﺒﻜﺮة‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ وﺗﻐﺎدر ﻣﺘﺄﺧﺮة ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﺮﻳﻒ ،‬
‫اﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﻞ ﺣﻮاﻟﻲ 8.01 ﻳﻮم ﻓﻲ ﻣﻮﺳﻢ اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻷوروﺑﻲ ﻟﺤﺪاﺋﻖ اﻷﻧﻮاع اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ‬
‫9591 إﻟﻰ 3991‬
‫اﻟﺘﻜﺎﺛﺮ اﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ اﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﻟﻄﻴﻮر ﻋﺪﻳﺪة وﺑﺮﻣﺎﺋﻴﺎت واﻟﺨﻨﺎﻓﺲ واﻟﻔﺮاﺷﺎت اﻟﺤﺴﺎﺳﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﺮودة .‬

78. ‫ﻣــﻮارد اﻟﻤـﻴـﺎﻩ‬
‫‪Water resources‬‬
‫ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻌﺪﻻت اﻻﻣﻄﺎر اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻇﺮوف ﺗﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﻨﺎخ ﺑﻤﻌﺪل 3-51 % اﻻ ان هﺬة اﻟﺰﻳﺎدة ﺳﺘﻜﻮن‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻧﺼﻴﺐ اﻟﻨﻄﺎﻗﺎت اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺧﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﻠﻴﺎ ﻓﻰ اﻻﺗﺠﺎة ﺷﻤﺎﻻ وﺟﻨﻮﺑﺎ ﻻﻗﻄﺎب اﻟﻜﺮة اﻻرﺿﻴﺔ ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺗﺘﻨﺎﻗﺺ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪﻻت ﺳﻘﻮط اﻻﻣﻄﺎر ﺑﺎﺗﺠﺎة ﺧﻂ اﻻﺳﺘﻮاء.‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﺮ ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ اﻻﻣﻄﺎر زﻳﺎدة ﻓﻰ ﻣﻌﺪﻻت ﺣﺪوث ﻣﻮﺟﺎت اﻟﻔﻴﻀﺎﻧﺎت واﻟﺠﻔﺎف.‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ اﻧﺨﻔﺎض آﻤﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﻴﺎة اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻓﻰ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺑﺎﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ وﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺠﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻤﺠﺎورة ﻟﻠﺒﺤﺮ‬
‫اﻻﺑﻴﺾ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ.‬
‫آﻞ ﻧﻤﺎذج ﺗﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﻨﺎخ ﺗﻮﺿﺢ رﻃﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﺘﺰاﻳﺪة ﻟﻠﺘﺮﺑﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﺘﺎء ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺮوض اﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﻠﻴﺎ ، واﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﺑﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ إﻧﺘﺎج اﻟﺤﺒﻮب اﻟﻬﺎﻣﺔ.‬
‫زﻳﺎدة درﺟﺔ اﻟﺤﺮارة ﺑﻨﺤﻮ 2 درﺟﺔ ﻣﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﺳﻮف ﻳﺆدي اﻟﻲ اﻧﺘﻘﺎل اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺧﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﺴﺎﻓﺔ ﺗﻘﺮب‬
‫ﻣﻦ 002 آﻴﻠﻮﻣﺘﺮ ﺑﺎﺗﺠﺎﻩ اﻟﻘﻄﺒﻴﻦ، وهﻮ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﻠﺺ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺠﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ.‬
‫ﺗﻜﺜﻴﻒ اﻟﺪورة ذات اﻟﺼﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ )ﻣﻌﺪل دوران ﺳﺮﻳﻊ ﻟﻠﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﻮ: زﻳﺎدة ﻣﻌﺪﻻت اﻟﻨﺘﺢ واﻟﺒﺨﺮ‬
‫ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ارﺗﻔﺎع درﺟﺎت اﻟﺤﺮارة، وﺗﺮآﻴﺰ اﻷﻣﻄﺎر ﻓﻲ ﻋﺪد أﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﻤﻄﻴﺮة(.‬

79. Increased water availability in some water-scarce
regions, and decreased water availability in many
water scarce regions

80. ‫اﻟﺮي ‪Irrigation‬‬
‫آﻔﺎءة اﺳﺘﺨﺪام وﺣﺪة اﻟﻤﻴﺎة ﺳﻮف ﻳﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ اﻧﺨﻔﺎض اﻟﻤﺎدة اﻟﺠﺎﻓﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺼﻮل ﻟﻜﻞ وﺣﺪة‬
‫ﻣﻴﺎة‬
‫اﻟﻨﺒﺎﺗﺎت رﺑﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮن 4‪ C‬اﻋﻠﻲ ﻓﻰ آﻔﺎءة اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﻋﻦ ال3‪C‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺎء ﺳﻮف ﺗﺰداد ﺑﻴﻦ ﺑﻴﻦ اﻻﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻻت اﻻدﻣﻴﺔ واﻟﺰراﻋﻴﺔ.‬
‫اﻷﻣﺎآﻦ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻴﻬﺎ اﻟﺮي ﺑﺼﻮرة ﻣﻜﺜﻔﺔ، ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﺼﺮ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﻠﻮﺣﺔ أﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ آﺒﺮى. وﻓﻲ هﺬﻩ‬
‫اﻟﺤﺎﻻت اﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺸﺄ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺗﺪهﻮر اﻷراﺿﻲ ﺑﺼﻮرة رﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ اﻟﺮي اﻟﺰاﺋﺪ ﻋﻦ اﻟﺤﺪ‬
‫زﻳﺎدة اﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎت اﻟﻤﺎﺋﻴﺔ اﻟﻼزﻣﺔ ﻟﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺻﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ آﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﻻرﺗﻔﺎع درﺟﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺤﺮارة‬
‫ارﺗﻔﺎع اﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎت اﻟﻤﺎﺋﻴﺔ واﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼك اﻟﻤﺎﺋﻰ ﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺻﻴﻞ ﺧﺎﺻﺎ اﻟﺼﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺣﻴﺚ‬
‫ً‬
‫ﺗﺘﺮاوح ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻻرﺗﻔﺎع ﻣﺎ ﺑﻴﻦ 8% اﻟﻰ 61% )ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﺬرة اﻟﺸﺎﻣﻴﺔ واﻻرز(‬

81. Impact of cc on evapotranspiration
Change in evapotranspiration (ET m 3/ fad) of major crops
due to climate change
14 %
5700
Evapotranspiration (ET m3/ fad)
5000
4300
7%
3600 9% 9%
4%
2900 -2%
2200 -2%
1500
800
100
Wheat Maize Cotton Sorghum Barley Rice Soybean
Base ET 1660 2615 2700 2140 1430 4540 2840
ET in 2050 1643 2824 2970 2311 1401 5266 3266
Crop
Base ET ET in 2050

82. Table (3) Water requirement for maize under current and future
conditions (2050) under drip and flood irrigation systems.
Water requirements m3/Fed.
Drip irrigation Flood irrigation
Location
Current Climate % Current Climate
condition change Difference condition change % Difference
Wadi El-Natron 3063 3227 5.4% 5105 5661 10.9%
Kafr Elshiekh 2701 2844 5.3% 4502 4989 10.8%
Menia 3708 3909 5.4% 6180 6858 11.0%
Nekhel 2695 2838 5.3% 4492 4979 10.8%
Kharga 3974 4165 4.8% 6623 7307 10.3%
Abo Elkizan 2922 3007 2.9% 4870 5275 8.3%
Toshka 4134 4361 5.5% 6890 7651 11.0%
Mean 3313 3478 4.9% 5523 6103 10.5%

83. ‫ﺗﻐﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﺮﻳﻄﺔ اﻟﺰراﻋﻴﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ درﺟﺔ اﻟﺤﺮرة وارﺗﻔﺎع ﻣﺴﺘﻮي ﺳﻄﺢ اﻟﺒﺤﺮ ﺳﻮف ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ اﻟﺤﺎﺻﻼت‬
‫ﻗﺪ ﻳﺆدي إﻟﻰ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ اﻟﺘﻮازن اﻟﺠﻐﺮاﻓﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﺻﻴﻞ‬
‫ﺣﺪوث ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ إﻳﺠﺎﺑﻲ ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻹﻧﺘﺎج ﻓﻲ اﻟﺒﻠﺪان اﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﻤﻌﺘﺪﻟﺔ‬
‫وﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺳﻠﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺒﻠﺪان اﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﻤﺪارﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻘﺪان اﻟﺘﻨﻮع اﻟﺒﻴﻮﻟﻮﺟﻲ‬
‫هﺠﺮة اﻷﺻﻨﺎف واﻟﻨﻈﻢ اﻹﻳﻜﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎﺻﻴﻞ واﻟﺤﻴﻮاﻧﺎت إﻟﻰ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺟﺪﻳﺪة؛‬
‫إدﺧﺎل ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻼت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻼت واﻟﺘﻮازن ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﻴﻦ اﻷﺻﻨﺎف، ﺑﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ذﻟﻚ اﻵﻓﺎت‬
‫واﻷﻣﺮاض.‬