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The Green Economy:
           An Irish Perspective

                   John FitzGerald
The Economic and Social research Institute
                             www.esri.ie
Introduction

   Environmental economics research
       EPA supported
   Irish environmental priorities
       Water, Other Pollutants, etc.
   Climate Change
       Decarbonising? Agriculture?
   Green Economy
       Value for money
Water
   Priorities since 1990?
       Urban waste water directive etc.
   Delivering a clean supply of water efficiently
       Water utility – to cut costs
       Water utility – to deliver investment
       Water utility – to improve state’s balance sheet
       Water utility – to manage funding
Environmental Priorities
   Many objectives
       Managing priorities
   Sustainable living
       Commuting and spatial patterns
       STRIVE research
   Sulphur dioxide etc.
       A success
       Health implications?
Commuting
 Household Car
 Emissions CO2

 Source: Census -
 POWCARS




                    Car CO2           0.09 - 0.12

                    Commuting         0.13 - 0.42
                        0.00 - 0.05   0.43 - 13.87
                        0.06 - 0.08

ESRI: ISUS model
SO2 emissions, historical and projected
             200                                                              200

                                                                                    Residential
             180                                                              180
                                                                                    Transport
                                                                                    Services
             160                                                              160   Construction
                                                                                    Fuel, power, water
             140                                                              140   Other manufacturing
                                                                                    Tranport equipment

             120                                                              120   Electrical goods
                                                                                    Office equipment
 000 t SO2




                                                                                    Machinery
             100                                                              100
                                                                                    Metal production
                                                                                    Mineral production
             80                                                               80    Rubber & plastic
                                                                                    Chemicals
             60                                                               60    Pulp & paper
                                                         Target                     Wood
             40                                                               40    Textiles
                                                                                    Food
                                                                                    Mining
             20                                                               20
                                                                                    Agriculture

              0                                                                0
               1990   1995   2000   2005   2010   2015       2020   2025   2030
ESRI: ISUS model
Climate Change
   Europe is burdened by debt
       Successful policy needs competitive solutions
       Uncertainty for investors if policy not credible
       Problems with uncoordinated national policies
   Global solutions needed
       Ireland decarbonising by shift to services in output
       Ireland decarbonising by importing dirty
        consumption
   Problem of agriculture
Low carbon in what sense?

                  Attribution of CO2 emissions by demand, plus imports
                80
                        Imports
                        Inventories
                70      Investment
                        Government
                60      Charity
                        Households
                50      Exports


                40
     mln tCO2




                30

                20

                10

                 0

                -10
                      1990            1995        2000           2005
                -20
                                                                             8
   Source: ESRI/EPA ISus model; Hertwich & Peters, 2009 (43) Env Sci Tech.
CH4 2009




                   CH4                  0.06 - 0.08

                   2009                 0.09 - 0.10
                          0.00          0.11 - 0.13
                          0.01 - 0.05   0.14 - 0.90

ESRI: ISUS model
Green Jobs?
   Environmental policy: how to meet our
    environmental objectives at minimum cost
   Energy policy is about ensuring secure and
    sustainable energy supply at minimum cost
       If it produces jobs, so much the better
       Paying too high a price for energy / environment
        will kill many more jobs than it creates
       Problem – jobs killed by uncompetitive policy not
        so visible
Environmental Policy
   Get Prices right
       E.g. Sustainable living
   Regulation
       E.g. Pollution of rivers
   Technical change needed
       R&D Incentivised by prices.
       Credibility of policy – ETS: uncertain price & windfall gains
   Non-ETS
       EU uses A model to allocate burden
       If wrong: Potential huge costs and transfers
   Major Problem for Ireland AND EU - agriculture

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The Green Economy, An Irish Perspective

  • 1. The Green Economy: An Irish Perspective John FitzGerald The Economic and Social research Institute www.esri.ie
  • 2. Introduction  Environmental economics research  EPA supported  Irish environmental priorities  Water, Other Pollutants, etc.  Climate Change  Decarbonising? Agriculture?  Green Economy  Value for money
  • 3. Water  Priorities since 1990?  Urban waste water directive etc.  Delivering a clean supply of water efficiently  Water utility – to cut costs  Water utility – to deliver investment  Water utility – to improve state’s balance sheet  Water utility – to manage funding
  • 4. Environmental Priorities  Many objectives  Managing priorities  Sustainable living  Commuting and spatial patterns  STRIVE research  Sulphur dioxide etc.  A success  Health implications?
  • 5. Commuting Household Car Emissions CO2 Source: Census - POWCARS Car CO2 0.09 - 0.12 Commuting 0.13 - 0.42 0.00 - 0.05 0.43 - 13.87 0.06 - 0.08 ESRI: ISUS model
  • 6. SO2 emissions, historical and projected 200 200 Residential 180 180 Transport Services 160 160 Construction Fuel, power, water 140 140 Other manufacturing Tranport equipment 120 120 Electrical goods Office equipment 000 t SO2 Machinery 100 100 Metal production Mineral production 80 80 Rubber & plastic Chemicals 60 60 Pulp & paper Target Wood 40 40 Textiles Food Mining 20 20 Agriculture 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 ESRI: ISUS model
  • 7. Climate Change  Europe is burdened by debt  Successful policy needs competitive solutions  Uncertainty for investors if policy not credible  Problems with uncoordinated national policies  Global solutions needed  Ireland decarbonising by shift to services in output  Ireland decarbonising by importing dirty consumption  Problem of agriculture
  • 8. Low carbon in what sense? Attribution of CO2 emissions by demand, plus imports 80 Imports Inventories 70 Investment Government 60 Charity Households 50 Exports 40 mln tCO2 30 20 10 0 -10 1990 1995 2000 2005 -20 8 Source: ESRI/EPA ISus model; Hertwich & Peters, 2009 (43) Env Sci Tech.
  • 9. CH4 2009 CH4 0.06 - 0.08 2009 0.09 - 0.10 0.00 0.11 - 0.13 0.01 - 0.05 0.14 - 0.90 ESRI: ISUS model
  • 10. Green Jobs?  Environmental policy: how to meet our environmental objectives at minimum cost  Energy policy is about ensuring secure and sustainable energy supply at minimum cost  If it produces jobs, so much the better  Paying too high a price for energy / environment will kill many more jobs than it creates  Problem – jobs killed by uncompetitive policy not so visible
  • 11. Environmental Policy  Get Prices right  E.g. Sustainable living  Regulation  E.g. Pollution of rivers  Technical change needed  R&D Incentivised by prices.  Credibility of policy – ETS: uncertain price & windfall gains  Non-ETS  EU uses A model to allocate burden  If wrong: Potential huge costs and transfers  Major Problem for Ireland AND EU - agriculture