This document provides an overview of key environmental trends and projections to 2050 according to the OECD Environmental Outlook. It finds that global population and GDP will continue growing significantly by 2050, increasing pressure on natural resources and the environment. Greenhouse gas emissions are projected to rise substantially by 2050 under a business as usual scenario, threatening the goal of limiting global warming to 2°C. Water demand is also expected to increase sharply, exacerbating water stress in many regions. The document examines policy scenarios that could help put the world on a more sustainable path through actions like pricing pollution and improving resource efficiency.
This paper is a compilation of 10 innovation predictions for the world in 2025, based on research done by Thomson Reuters analysts. The aim of this project was to identify 10 technologies of tomorrow that will be in use in 2025 based on research and development currently identifiable in the literature of today - both scientific literature and published patents.
This paper is a compilation of 10 innovation predictions for the world in 2025, based on research done by Thomson Reuters analysts. The aim of this project was to identify 10 technologies of tomorrow that will be in use in 2025 based on research and development currently identifiable in the literature of today - both scientific literature and published patents.
This presentation contains what is environment, why should we save the environment How can you save the environment 7 golden methods, some facts, recently happened activity, 3 R's and the conclusion and some of the important dates and posters.
Smart city India , What is a Smart City?
Government Of India (GOI) Smart City Mission
Strategies for Smart Cities Success
SMART Solutions & A Unified Command & Control Center
The Smart City Services Platform (SCSP)
This presentation forecasts how urban planning and technology is shaping our cities through smart city initiatives. Ultimate objective is to make people happy and provide impactful experiences for people living in cities and solving cities challenges. Technology is only an enabler but people come first. These initiatives should be driven by outcomes and what cities want to achieve and become.
Elizabeth Kellar, president and CEO of the Center for State and Local Government and deputy executive director for ICMA, spoke on the topic of smart cities during the 2016 Global City Teams Challenge Tech Jam. These were the slides that accompanied her speech.
We are alive! Now what? by Kārlis CērbulisRoberts Zīle
Brilliant and professional look at the current economical situation of Latvia. Kārlis Cērbulis is one of the bright economical minds in Latvia and collegue of mine in the economist association "EA2010" Enjoy!
This presentation contains what is environment, why should we save the environment How can you save the environment 7 golden methods, some facts, recently happened activity, 3 R's and the conclusion and some of the important dates and posters.
Smart city India , What is a Smart City?
Government Of India (GOI) Smart City Mission
Strategies for Smart Cities Success
SMART Solutions & A Unified Command & Control Center
The Smart City Services Platform (SCSP)
This presentation forecasts how urban planning and technology is shaping our cities through smart city initiatives. Ultimate objective is to make people happy and provide impactful experiences for people living in cities and solving cities challenges. Technology is only an enabler but people come first. These initiatives should be driven by outcomes and what cities want to achieve and become.
Elizabeth Kellar, president and CEO of the Center for State and Local Government and deputy executive director for ICMA, spoke on the topic of smart cities during the 2016 Global City Teams Challenge Tech Jam. These were the slides that accompanied her speech.
We are alive! Now what? by Kārlis CērbulisRoberts Zīle
Brilliant and professional look at the current economical situation of Latvia. Kārlis Cērbulis is one of the bright economical minds in Latvia and collegue of mine in the economist association "EA2010" Enjoy!
Presentation by Mr Kārlis Cerbulis, economics expert, Senior Vice President, NCH Advisors Inc. Baltic States at EP ECR group meeting in Riga, Latvia on September, 2010.
Sustainable Organisations: Can businesses solve social and environmental issu...London Business School
London Business School Assistant Professor of Strategy and Entrepreneurship, Ioannis Ioannou, presents his insights on how organisations can take a greener approach to the way they do business and succeed.
This was presented on 20 Nobvember 2012, at a London Business School Meeting. Watch the video footage at http://bit.ly/UrtfYc.
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Jay Blazek Crossley, with Houston Tomorrow, gave a presentation on the relationship between transportation and carbon emissions in the Houston region, at a training for teachers and facilitators for Green Week Houston's No Impact Man Curriculum and Challenge that will be in October 2010.
Pascal Hartmann is a German sociologist and an experienced strategy executive and theory designer. He is also the Director of the R & D Department at Logon Architecture. With an eye to the future, his work embraces the architectural heritage of the city in a sustainable fashion.
Martin Barden – The audience centre stage | congres podiumkunsten 2012Promotie Podiumkunsten
Until recently, Martin Barden was dealing with memberships and loyalty programs at the Tate in London. In the past 10 years he has successfully developed various membership programs. At the congress he will tell us about the steps to a successful way to bind our audiences as theater company or orchestra. To be successful in developing an art membership program, you need to slow down and listen. Most important of all, you have to focus on the individual, not the institution, says Martin Barden. www.congrespodiumkunsten.nl
Jenny Deakin from the EPA Catchments Unit gave a Teagasc Signpost Seminar on April 20 2021. The seminar covered water quality, focused on the agricultural sector, and the solutions needed to improve water quality, and new tools to target the right measure in the right place. This includes upgraded Pollution Impact Potential Maps for Nitrogen and Phosphorus, together with overland flow and focused delivery points.
On 25 November 2020 the EPA published Ireland’s Environment - An Integrated Assessment 2020 which provides an assessment of the overall quality of Ireland's environment, the pressures being placed on it and the societal responses to current and emerging environmental issues.
This plain English fact sheet outlines the work done by the EPA in monitoring Ireland’s rivers.
Ireland has more than 73,000 km of river channels. If placed end-to-end, they could encircle the Earth almost twice. Three-quarters of these channels are very small streams that typically flow into larger rivers.
Biological monitoring has been carried out in Irish rivers since 1971. The current national river monitoring programme covers more than 13,000 km of river channel.
The national monitoring programme is run by the EPA and focuses on the main river channels rather than the smaller streams. The programme includes more than 2,800 sites sampled for biology, with almost half of these being sampled for physical and chemical parameters.
This plain English fact sheet outlines the work done by the EPA in monitoring phytoplankton in Ireland's marine environment.
The EPA and the Marine Institute sample phytoplankton in estuaries and coastal waters around Ireland. They carry out sampling three times during the summer and once during winter. At each location, they take water samples just below the surface and above the seabed. They use the samples to assess how much phytoplankton is in the water and what species are present.
Phytoplankton are tiny, free-floating plants found suspended in the world’s oceans. Their name comes from Greek and means ‘plant drifter’. They are carried along by ocean currents and are usually found floating near the surface of the water. Like all plants they need sunlight to grow.
The main sources of nutrients around Ireland’s coast are discharges from wastewater treatment plants and run off from agricultural land. Phytoplankton in the estuaries and coastal waters around Ireland are monitored by the EnvironmentalProtection Agency (EPA) and the Marine Institute. They monitor phytoplankton to assess the quality (status) of our marine environment. They must do this as part of the requirements of the European Water Framework Directive.
This plain English fact sheet outlines the work done by the EPA in monitoring Ireland’s marine environment.
Ecologically healthy marine waters are a valuable natural resource. They support a rich and diverse range of ecosystems, habitats and species, and they are also a source of food – from wild fisheries and aquaculture. They are also important for recreational activities and tourism.
Transitional and coastal waters are assessed under the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). Having coordinated frameworks for water quality for all the water bodies in Ireland, and across Europe, allows us to compare our results with other countries. It allows us to see what works to help us make sure all our water bodies achieve at least ‘good’ status, and no deterioration occurs.
This plain English fact sheet outlines the work done by the EPA in monitoring Ireland’s lakes.
A total of 225 lakes are currently included as part of the national surface waters monitoring programme run by the EPA, this covers around 80% of the surface area of all lakes in Ireland.
This includes:
• all lakes greater than 50 hectares
• lakes that are used for supplying drinking water
• lakes that are of regional, local or scientific interest
This Plain English fact sheet outlines the work done by the EPA in monitoring aquatic plants in Irish lakes.
Aquatic plants are good at showing if the quality of the water is good or bad and play an important role in lake ecology by providing food and a habitat for many smaller plants, animals and birds.
They also:
• provide shelter for young fish
• help to improve the clarity of the water
• help stabilise lake shore banks
• reduce the amount of sediment being suspended in the water
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) monitors these aquatic plants at more than 10,000 sites in over 200 lakes once every three years.
On 17 and 18 June 2020 the EPA held its National Water Event as an online conference.
This year's theme was 'Restoring our waters'.
This years event was free to attend. It was the EPA's largest water event ever, with over 1250 attending.
To everyone who joined us: thanks for attending; thanks for your probing questions; thanks for your passion; thanks for caring about our waters. We can achieve more working together.
Special thanks to all our presenters and the team who worked behind the scenes to make sure this years conference happened.
For science and stories about water quality in Ireland, check out www.catchments.ie
On 17 and 18 June 2020 the EPA held its National Water Event as an online conference.
This year's theme was 'Restoring our waters'.
This years event was free to attend. It was the EPA's largest water event ever, with over 1250 attending.
To everyone who joined us: thanks for attending; thanks for your probing questions; thanks for your passion; thanks for caring about our waters. We can achieve more working together.
Special thanks to all our presenters and the team who worked behind the scenes to make sure this years conference happened.
For science and stories about water quality in Ireland, check out www.catchments.ie
On 17 and 18 June 2020 the EPA held its National Water Event as an online conference.
This year's theme was 'Restoring our waters'.
This years event was free to attend. It was the EPA's largest water event ever, with over 1250 attending.
To everyone who joined us: thanks for attending; thanks for your probing questions; thanks for your passion; thanks for caring about our waters. We can achieve more working together.
Special thanks to all our presenters and the team who worked behind the scenes to make sure this years conference happened.
For science and stories about water quality in Ireland, check out www.catchments.ie
On 17 and 18 June 2020 the EPA held its National Water Event as an online conference.
This presentation was by Con McLaughlin, Donegal County Council and Andy Griggs, Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon District Council.
This year's theme was 'Restoring our waters'.
This years event was free to attend. It was the EPA's largest water event ever, with over 1250 attending.
To everyone who joined us: thanks for attending; thanks for your probing questions; thanks for your passion; thanks for caring about our waters. We can achieve more working together.
Special thanks to all our presenters and the team who worked behind the scenes to make sure this years conference happened.
For science and stories about water quality in Ireland, check out www.catchments.ie
On 17 and 18 June 2020 the EPA held its National Water Event as an online conference.
This year's theme was 'Restoring our waters'.
This years event was free to attend. It was the EPA's largest water event ever, with over 1250 attending.
To everyone who joined us: thanks for attending; thanks for your probing questions; thanks for your passion; thanks for caring about our waters. We can achieve more working together.
Special thanks to all our presenters and the team who worked behind the scenes to make sure this years conference happened.
For science and stories about water quality in Ireland, check out www.catchments.ie
More from Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland (20)
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI supportAlan Dix
Paper presented at SYNERGY workshop at AVI 2024, Genoa, Italy. 3rd June 2024
https://alandix.com/academic/papers/synergy2024-epistemic/
As machine learning integrates deeper into human-computer interactions, the concept of epistemic interaction emerges, aiming to refine these interactions to enhance system adaptability. This approach encourages minor, intentional adjustments in user behaviour to enrich the data available for system learning. This paper introduces epistemic interaction within the context of human-system communication, illustrating how deliberate interaction design can improve system understanding and adaptation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate the potential of epistemic interaction to significantly advance human-computer interaction by leveraging intuitive human communication strategies to inform system design and functionality, offering a novel pathway for enriching user-system engagements.
In his public lecture, Christian Timmerer provides insights into the fascinating history of video streaming, starting from its humble beginnings before YouTube to the groundbreaking technologies that now dominate platforms like Netflix and ORF ON. Timmerer also presents provocative contributions of his own that have significantly influenced the industry. He concludes by looking at future challenges and invites the audience to join in a discussion.
GraphSummit Singapore | The Future of Agility: Supercharging Digital Transfor...Neo4j
Leonard Jayamohan, Partner & Generative AI Lead, Deloitte
This keynote will reveal how Deloitte leverages Neo4j’s graph power for groundbreaking digital twin solutions, achieving a staggering 100x performance boost. Discover the essential role knowledge graphs play in successful generative AI implementations. Plus, get an exclusive look at an innovative Neo4j + Generative AI solution Deloitte is developing in-house.
Communications Mining Series - Zero to Hero - Session 1DianaGray10
This session provides introduction to UiPath Communication Mining, importance and platform overview. You will acquire a good understand of the phases in Communication Mining as we go over the platform with you. Topics covered:
• Communication Mining Overview
• Why is it important?
• How can it help today’s business and the benefits
• Phases in Communication Mining
• Demo on Platform overview
• Q/A
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 6DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 6. In this session, we will cover Test Automation with generative AI and Open AI.
UiPath Test Automation with generative AI and Open AI webinar offers an in-depth exploration of leveraging cutting-edge technologies for test automation within the UiPath platform. Attendees will delve into the integration of generative AI, a test automation solution, with Open AI advanced natural language processing capabilities.
Throughout the session, participants will discover how this synergy empowers testers to automate repetitive tasks, enhance testing accuracy, and expedite the software testing life cycle. Topics covered include the seamless integration process, practical use cases, and the benefits of harnessing AI-driven automation for UiPath testing initiatives. By attending this webinar, testers, and automation professionals can gain valuable insights into harnessing the power of AI to optimize their test automation workflows within the UiPath ecosystem, ultimately driving efficiency and quality in software development processes.
What will you get from this session?
1. Insights into integrating generative AI.
2. Understanding how this integration enhances test automation within the UiPath platform
3. Practical demonstrations
4. Exploration of real-world use cases illustrating the benefits of AI-driven test automation for UiPath
Topics covered:
What is generative AI
Test Automation with generative AI and Open AI.
UiPath integration with generative AI
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Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 5DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 5. In this session, we will cover CI/CD with devops.
Topics covered:
CI/CD with in UiPath
End-to-end overview of CI/CD pipeline with Azure devops
Speaker:
Lyndsey Byblow, Test Suite Sales Engineer @ UiPath, Inc.
Essentials of Automations: The Art of Triggers and Actions in FMESafe Software
In this second installment of our Essentials of Automations webinar series, we’ll explore the landscape of triggers and actions, guiding you through the nuances of authoring and adapting workspaces for seamless automations. Gain an understanding of the full spectrum of triggers and actions available in FME, empowering you to enhance your workspaces for efficient automation.
We’ll kick things off by showcasing the most commonly used event-based triggers, introducing you to various automation workflows like manual triggers, schedules, directory watchers, and more. Plus, see how these elements play out in real scenarios.
Whether you’re tweaking your current setup or building from the ground up, this session will arm you with the tools and insights needed to transform your FME usage into a powerhouse of productivity. Join us to discover effective strategies that simplify complex processes, enhancing your productivity and transforming your data management practices with FME. Let’s turn complexity into clarity and make your workspaces work wonders!
Climate Impact of Software Testing at Nordic Testing DaysKari Kakkonen
My slides at Nordic Testing Days 6.6.2024
Climate impact / sustainability of software testing discussed on the talk. ICT and testing must carry their part of global responsibility to help with the climat warming. We can minimize the carbon footprint but we can also have a carbon handprint, a positive impact on the climate. Quality characteristics can be added with sustainability, and then measured continuously. Test environments can be used less, and in smaller scale and on demand. Test techniques can be used in optimizing or minimizing number of tests. Test automation can be used to speed up testing.
LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...DanBrown980551
Do you want to learn how to model and simulate an electrical network from scratch in under an hour?
Then welcome to this PowSyBl workshop, hosted by Rte, the French Transmission System Operator (TSO)!
During the webinar, you will discover the PowSyBl ecosystem as well as handle and study an electrical network through an interactive Python notebook.
PowSyBl is an open source project hosted by LF Energy, which offers a comprehensive set of features for electrical grid modelling and simulation. Among other advanced features, PowSyBl provides:
- A fully editable and extendable library for grid component modelling;
- Visualization tools to display your network;
- Grid simulation tools, such as power flows, security analyses (with or without remedial actions) and sensitivity analyses;
The framework is mostly written in Java, with a Python binding so that Python developers can access PowSyBl functionalities as well.
What you will learn during the webinar:
- For beginners: discover PowSyBl's functionalities through a quick general presentation and the notebook, without needing any expert coding skills;
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Observability Concepts EVERY Developer Should Know -- DeveloperWeek Europe.pdfPaige Cruz
Monitoring and observability aren’t traditionally found in software curriculums and many of us cobble this knowledge together from whatever vendor or ecosystem we were first introduced to and whatever is a part of your current company’s observability stack.
While the dev and ops silo continues to crumble….many organizations still relegate monitoring & observability as the purview of ops, infra and SRE teams. This is a mistake - achieving a highly observable system requires collaboration up and down the stack.
I, a former op, would like to extend an invitation to all application developers to join the observability party will share these foundational concepts to build on:
Alt. GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using ...James Anderson
Effective Application Security in Software Delivery lifecycle using Deployment Firewall and DBOM
The modern software delivery process (or the CI/CD process) includes many tools, distributed teams, open-source code, and cloud platforms. Constant focus on speed to release software to market, along with the traditional slow and manual security checks has caused gaps in continuous security as an important piece in the software supply chain. Today organizations feel more susceptible to external and internal cyber threats due to the vast attack surface in their applications supply chain and the lack of end-to-end governance and risk management.
The software team must secure its software delivery process to avoid vulnerability and security breaches. This needs to be achieved with existing tool chains and without extensive rework of the delivery processes. This talk will present strategies and techniques for providing visibility into the true risk of the existing vulnerabilities, preventing the introduction of security issues in the software, resolving vulnerabilities in production environments quickly, and capturing the deployment bill of materials (DBOM).
Speakers:
Bob Boule
Robert Boule is a technology enthusiast with PASSION for technology and making things work along with a knack for helping others understand how things work. He comes with around 20 years of solution engineering experience in application security, software continuous delivery, and SaaS platforms. He is known for his dynamic presentations in CI/CD and application security integrated in software delivery lifecycle.
Gopinath Rebala
Gopinath Rebala is the CTO of OpsMx, where he has overall responsibility for the machine learning and data processing architectures for Secure Software Delivery. Gopi also has a strong connection with our customers, leading design and architecture for strategic implementations. Gopi is a frequent speaker and well-known leader in continuous delivery and integrating security into software delivery.
Mind map of terminologies used in context of Generative AI
What the World Environment Might Look Like in 2050 and What We Can do About It
1. Environmental Outlook to 2050
Dublin, Ireland
27th June 2012
Simon Upton
Director
OECD Environment Directorate
For more information, see
www.oecd.org/greengrowth
2. GDP per capita ('000 USD)
70
GDP +124%
60
50
40
GDP +478%
OECD
30 GDP +295%
20
GDP +458%
WORLD
10
BRIICS
RoW
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
OECD WORLD Population (billions)
RoW BRIICS
Population (billions)
Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection using ENV-Linkages model
3. Population and urbanisation
80% 10,000,000
Percentage of Urban %
Total Population
Population 9.2 Bn
Rural % (thousands) 9,000,000
70%
Total population 70%
8,000,000
60% Urban Population
7,000,000
50% 6.4 Bn
6,000,000
40% 5,000,000
4,000,000
30% 30%
3,000,000
20%
2,000,000
10%
1,000,000
0% 0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Source: Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social
3
Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006
Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision,
4. The emergence of 3 billion middle-class consumers
will fuel future demand
4.88
Global middle class1
Billions of people
3.25
3 billion
1.85 0.03
ROW
Latin America 3.23
North America
Europe 1.74
Asia-Pacific 0.53
2009 2020 2030
1 Based on daily consumption per capita ranging from $10 to $100 (in purchasing power parity 4
terms) SOURCE: OECD (2011), Perspectives on Global Development: Social Cohesion in
a Shifting World
5. Growth – not just a developing country concern
Demographics
Debt
Jobs
Percent of GDP
3.0 20.0
Per cent of GDP To return to 2007
Millions
7.0
16 employment levels
Changes in age related public spending to 2025 15.0
2.0
6.0
14
Deficit improvement to achieve 60%
12 debt to GDP by 2025 10.0
5.0 Pensions
1.0
10 Employment growth 5.0
Long term care
4.0
8 (%) Health
0.0 (Left hand axis) 0.0
3.0
6
2.04 -5.0
-1.0
2 Additional
1.0 unemployed since -10.0
0
-2.0 2007
0.0 (Right hand axis) -15.0
-1.0
-3.0 -20.0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
6. Linking economy and environment
Population & demographics Capital supply Natural resources
Fuel prices Economic growth
efficiency
efficiency
Energy
Yield
Energy use Bioenergy Land use
Local air GHG emissions Deforestation
pollution
(under
construction)
Health & Climate Water stress Biodiversity
environment change & water
quality
6
7. Environmental Outlook to 2050: Climate Change
GHG emissions by region: Baseline, 2010-2050
OECD AI Russia & rest of AI Rest of BRIICS ROW
90
GtCO2e
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from ENV-Linkages. 7
8. Environmental State and Pressures
1 000 CO2 concentrations
900
3 - 6 C by 2100
CO2 concentration (ppm)
800
700
600
500 450 ppm
400
300
200
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline
projection using IMAGE model suite
8
9. GHG emissions intensity and GDP
Emissions intensity
(kg CO2e / 2010 USD PPP)
1.0 RoW GHG
RoW
emissions
0.9 13 GtCO2e
BRIICS GHG
BRIICS 0.8 emissions
19 GtCO2e
0.7 World GHG
emissions
WORLD 48 GtCO2e
0.6
0.5 OECD GHG
emissions
OECD 0.4 16 GtCO2e RoW GHG BRIICS GHG
World GHG
emissions emissions
emissions
0.3 22 GtCO2e 39 GtCO2e
81 GtCO2e
OECD GHG
0.2 emissions
19 GtCO2e
0.1
0.0
0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000
RoW OECD WORLD
BRIICS
GDP (billions 2010 USD PPP)
Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection
using ENV-Linkages model
10. Scenarios for the future to 2100
The 450ppm core scenario, based on least cost timing of action
A « delayed action » scenario based on Copenhagen pledges
An « accelerated action » scenario, implying reduced reliance on new technologies
A 550ppm « surrender « scenario
GtCO2e Outlook Baseline 450 ppm Core
130
120 450 ppm Delayed Action 450 ppm Accelerated Action
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to
2050, Baseline projection using ENV-Linkages model 10
11. Zooming in to 2050
The 450ppm core scenario, based on least cost timing of action
A « delayed action » scenario based on Copenhagen pledges
An « accelerated action » scenario, implying reduced reliance on new technologies
A 550ppm « surrender « scenario
UNEP (2010) range Outlook Baseline
GtCO2e 450 ppm Core 450 ppm Delayed Action
450 ppm Accelerated Action 550 ppm Core
60 Baseline GHG
emissions in 2050
= 81 GtCO2e
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
0- 20
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline
projection using ENV-Linkages model 11
12. The cost of action is still affordable…for now
The average GDP growth rate would slow by 0.2 percentage point between 2010 and 2050,
from 3.5% to 3.3% in a context of quadrupling of world GDP.
Benefits of action are not included in GDP projection
Index 2010=100
450
400
Baseline GDP -5.5%
350
450 ppm core scenario
300
GDP
250
200
150 GHG emissions
100 GHG emissions -69.5%
50
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection using
ENV-Linkages model
12
13. Environmental Outlook to 2050: Biodiversity
Effects of different pressures on terrestrial MSA: Baseline, 2010 to 2050
100%
Infr+Encr+Frag
90%
Climate Change
Nitrogen
Former Land-Use
80%
MSA
Forestry
Pasture
70% Bioenergy
Food Crop
60%
Remaining MSA
0- 50%
2010 2030 2050
13
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
14. Environmental Outlook to 2050: Water
Global water demand: Baseline scenario, 2000 and 2050
6 000
irrigation domestic livestock manufacturing electricity
Km3
5 000 +140%
4 000
+400%
3 000
+130%
2 000
1 000
0
2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050
14
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
15. Water use reduction (per household)
Water Use Reduction Strategy: North American Household (Temperate
Region)
350
300
Water Consumption (L/cap./day)
250
200 Leak detection & repair
Water efficiency
150 Rain water capture
Grey water harvesting
100
50
0
Conventional Low Water
Source: Based on Toronto data; OECD 15
16. Environmental Outlook to 2050: Water
Nitrogen effluents from wastewater: Baseline, 2000 and 2050
OECD India China Africa Rest of the world
Millions of tonnes of N / year
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000 2050
16
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
17. Environmental Outlook to 2050: Water
17
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
18. Environmental Outlook to 2050: Health & Env.
Global premature deaths from particulate matter
and ground-level ozone
4.0
2010 2030 2050
Deaths (millions of people)
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Ground-level ozone Particulate Matter
18
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
20. Environmental Outlook to 2050: What policies do we need?
• Make pollution more costly
20
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
21. Fuel taxes, pre-tax fuel prices and energy use in the transport sector, per unit
of GDP
90
90
United States 1.0
United States
Tonnes oil equivalent per million USD GDP unit
80 1.0
80
Petrol use per GDP unit use per GDP unit
Petrol
70 Diesel use per GDP unit use per GDP unit
70 Diesel
Other use per GDP unit use per GDP unit
Other 0.8
Petrol tax rate, € Petrol tax rate, €
0.8
60
60 Diesel tax rate, €
Rotterdam spot price, 98 octane unleaded petrol
50 0.6
50 0.6
€ per litre
40
40
0.4
0.4
30
30
20
20
0.2
0.2
10
10
0
0 0.0
0.0
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Source: IEA’s energy balances
22. Fuel taxes, pre-tax fuel prices and energy use in the transport sector, per unit
of GDP
90 Petrol use per GDP unit
Diesel use per GDP unit Turkey
United States 1.0
1.0
Tonnes oil equivalent per million USD GDP unit
80
Other use per GDP unit
70 Petrol use per GDP unit
Petrol tax rate, € Diesel use per GDP unit
Other use per GDP unit 0.8
0.8
60
60 Diesel tax rate, € Petrol tax rate, €
Diesel tax rate, €
Rotterdam spot price, 98 octane Rotterdam spot price, 98 octane unleaded petrol
50
50 unleaded petrol 0.6
0.6
€ per litre
40
40
0.4
0.4
30
30
20
20 0.2
0.2
10
10
0 0.0
0 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 0.0
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Source: IEA’s energy balances.
23. % of GDP
-1.0
-0.5
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Mexico
United States
Chile
Canada *
New Zealand
Other
Japan
* 2009 figure
Spain
Australia
France
Poland
Hungary
Slovak Republic *
Switzerland
Belgium
Iceland
Motor vehicles
Germany
Luxembourg
Norway
Austria
Portugal
Energy
Ireland
United Kingdom
Greece
Italy
Sweden
Korea
Finland
Czech Republic
Estonia
Slovenia
Israel
Netherlands
Turkey
Denmark
& raise revenues (Revenues in % of GDP, 2010)
Weighted average
Brazil
China
Source: OECD/EEA database on instruments for environmental policy; www.oecd.org/env/policies/database.
Colombia
Environmentally related taxes: benefit the environment, innovation
Costa Rica *
South Africa
24. Environmental Outlook to 2050: What policies do we need?
• Make pollution more costly
• Value and price the natural assets and
ecosystem services
24
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
25. Mismeasurement and mismanagement
% of GNI Forests & protected areas
Subsoil Assets
Pasture Land
Crop
28% of
Sub-Saharan Africa Natural Capital wealth
Education
Net Produced Capital
saving +3.3%
Net Foreign Assets
7.6% Resource
depletion Intangible Capital
-16.1%
-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
Pollution
-1.0% USD 2005, per
capita
-6.2%
Adjusted net
savings
Source: World Bank Wealth of Nations
26. Better measurement and better management
Norway
Savings rate Wealth
Natural Capital Produced Capital
Education
Net Foreign Assets Intangible Capital
Net +6.0%
saving 1,000,000
Resource
26.2% depletion
800,000
-16.1% USD 280,000
Pollution per capita
-0.1% 600,000
400,000
16.2%
Adjusted 200,000
net
savings
0
OECD average, 6.8%
Norway OECD
-200,000
USD 2005, per capita
% of GNI
Source: World Bank Wealth of Nations
27. Environmental Outlook to 2050: What policies do we need?
• Make pollution more costly
• Value and price the natural assets and
ecosystem services
• Remove environmentally harmful subsidies
27
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
28. Why make CO2 cheaper if you’re trying to make it scarcer?
$45-75
USD $409 billion billion
2010 , developing $ 44
2010, in fossil
country fossil fuel billion, 201
fuel support
consumption 0, global
in OECD countries renewable
subsidies
electricity
subsidies
5 Income gains from unilateral removal of fossil fuel consumer subsidies in emerging and
developing countries (% change in HH income vs BAU)
4
3 6% less emissions
globally from removal
2 of these fossil fuel
subsidies
1
0
-1
-2
Oil-exporting India China Russia Rest of the World Non-EU Eastern
countries European
Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection Countries
using ENV-Linkages model based on IEA data; OECD and IEA analysis see website:
www.oecd.org/iea-oecd-ffs 28
29. Environmental Outlook to 2050: What policies do we need?
• Make pollution more costly
• Value and price the natural assets and
ecosystem services
• Remove environmentally harmful subsidies
• Devise effective regulations and standards
• Encourage green innovation
29
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
30. Israeli freshwater use (2009)a
Abstraction per capita per capita
Abstraction Intensity ofIntensity of use
use
el 220
Israel 220 Israel Israel 86.4
ny 390
Germany 390 Germany Germany 27.6 27.6
y Turkey 560 560 Turkey 17.8
Turkey 17.8
ia Australia 640 640 Australia 3.6
Australia 3.6
n Spain 710 710 Spain Spain 29.2 29.2
es
United States 1 630 1 630 United States 19.6
United States 19.6
0 400 800 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400
0 1200 1600 2000 2400 0 20 0 40 20 60 40 80 60 100 8
m3/ capita m3/ capita abstraction as %
abstraction as %
of internal resources resource
of internal
available year.
a) Or latest available year.
CD, Environment Environment Directorate.
Source: OECD, Directorate.
a) Or latest available year 30
Source: OECD, Environment Directorate.
31. Israeli economic efficiency of agricultural water use, 1986-2008
Indice 1986=100
140
120
100
80
60
40
Valor de la producción agrícola por m3 de agua utilizada para irrigación
20 Precio real del agua dulce para agricultura (deflactado con el índice de
precios al consumidor)
0
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: OECD (2010), OECD Review of Agricultural Policies: Israel, 2010 . 31
32. General environmental management
Israeli Patents in selected environment & climate-related
technologies, 1995-2008
technologies
Número de of
number
patents
patentes
100
90 Total patents de patentes
Número total
80
Reducción de la
Water pollution abatement
70
contaminación del agua
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
El número de patentes está basado en la fecha de prioridad, el país de residencia del inventor y utiliza 32
contabilización fraccionada de las solicitudes PCT en fase internacional (denominaciones de EPO).
Fuente: OECD (2011), OECD Patent Statistics Database; OECD, Environment Directorate.
34. A framework for green growth indicators
1 Indicators monitoring environmental and resource productivity
2 Indicators monitoring the natural asset base
3 Indicators monitoring the environmental quality of life
4 Indicators monitoring economic opportunities and policy responses
The socio-economic context and characteristics of growth
35. Proposed headline indicators
Environmental and resource productivity
1 CO2 productivity Carbon productivity
2 Non-energy material productivity Resource productivity
3 Multifactor productivity (incl. environmental services) Multifactor productivity
The natural asset base
Renewable and non-
4 Sustainability index for natural resources
renewable stocks
5 Land use and cover Biodiversity and ecosystems
Environmental quality of life
Environmental health and
6 Air pollution: population exposure to PM2.5
risks
Economic opportunities and policy responses
Placeholder – no indicator specified
36. Word analysis of Rio+20 Outcome
"Future We Want" word occurrences
160
140
120
Number of occurrences
100
80
60
40
20
0
Source:OECD analysis based on UNCSD Rio+20 Outcome Text: 36
“The Future We Want”
37. What you don’t know can hurt you
www.oecd.org/environment/outlookto2050
38. Rise of the mega-cities
50
Population (Millions) 29 mega-cities in 2025
45
Delhi
40
21 mega-cities in 2012 Tokyo
35
Mumbai
Mexico City
30
25 Sao Paolo
9 mega-cities in 1985 NYC
20 Beijing
15 NYC only mega-city in 1950 Rio
London
10 Mega-city =
Largest cities in the world 7000 BC until 1800 10M
5 Rome Baghdad Kaifeng
(900k) (1M) Beijing
Uruk Mari (1.2M) Constantinople
Jericho (500k) Ur Babylon
(200k )
(400k)
(100k) (100k)
(600k) (1M)
0
(- = BC) -7000 -3500 -2500 -2100 -700 200 600 900 1200 1500 1800 1825 1900 1950 2007 2020 2025
Source: http://geography.about.com/library/weekly/aa011201a.htm, citing
38
Chandler, T. (1987) Four Thousand Years of Urban Growth: An Historical
Census, Edwin Mellen Press.
Editor's Notes
% increase of GDP, 2010-2050 (right-top of the blocks)
In the baseline there is already a relative decoupling between economic activity and emissions: GDP is projected to grow much more rapidly than emissions (this is the result of a mixture of effects, including e.g. energy policies)A huge reduction of emissions is possible at a cost of 0.2 %-point of GDP; this results in GDP being 5.5% below the Baseline in 2050.To avoid excessive costs, an overshoot of the targeted concentration level (450 ppm) has now become inevitableA significant carbon price is needed to induce mitigation action and stimulate technological change. The 450 Core scenario assumes a global carbon price gradually increasing rapidly to USD 325/tCO2e in 2050.Ambitious mitigation action will not eliminate all climate impacts, but substantially lowers the risk of catastrophic climate change. These costs of action do NOT reflect the reduced damages or other benefits from action, such as improved health from reduced local air pollution or possible biodiversity benefits. Stern estimated that these costs of inaction could amount to more than 14% of per capita consumption. Given the huge scale of the problem, keeping costs as low as possible is essential to achieve the ambitious goal of limiting temperature increases to 2 degrees. Not relying on market-based instruments or on actions in all sectors, gases and regions will increase these costs and thereby make the target more difficult to achieve.
Note that land use change and management continues to be a key pressure driving biodiversity loss to 2050 (food crop, bioenergy. pasture) Looking at the relative contributions over time, climate change is the fastest growing pressure on biodiversity loss between 2010 and 2050.
Technologies are there to do it, these have a cost and pricing is one of the ways, there are other mechanismsRainwater capacity is the one to flagIn water scarce environment
NB: The energy use only refers to the transport sector – but the GDP is for the whole economy.
NB: The energy use only refers to the transport sector – but the GDP is for the whole economy.
A megacity is usually defined as a metropolitan area with a total population in excess of 10 million people.As of 2012, there are 21 megacities in existence– with conurbations such as Mumbai, Tokyo, Seoul, New York City, and Mexico City having populations in excess of 20 million inhabitants each.By 2025, seven of the world's top ten megacities will be in Asia.