This document discusses predictions about the future of social media and how businesses can plan for an uncertain future using social media. It references a 1994 prediction about immersive virtual learning environments and notes that some predictions have come true through technologies like wearable computing, virtual worlds, and mobile devices. The document advocates using social media to develop multiple scenarios for how the future may unfold and make business strategies more collaborative. Crowdsourcing predictions through tools like Google's prediction market is also presented as a way to help plan for an uncertain future.

1. SOCIAL MEDIA: A LOAD OF
CRYSTAL BALLS?
Paul Squires

2. ABOUT PERERA
“Content and commerce” agency
Content: publishing, social media, Intranets, content
Commerce: e-commerce, paywalls, business models
Part of Perini media group
www.pereramedia.com
Twitter @pereramedia

3. WHAT DOES THE FUTURE
LOOK LIKE?

4. WHAT DOES THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE?
Timothy Leary
Quoted in Cyberia, Douglas Rushkoff, 1994
By the year 2000, the IC (Inner City) kid will slip on the EyePhone, don a
form-fitting computer suit, and start inhabiting electronic environments either
self-designed or pulled up from menus.
At 9.00am she and her friend in Tokyo will meet in an electronic virtualisation
in Malibu Beach for a flirtatious moment. At 9.30am she will meet her biology
teacher in an electronic simulation of the heart for a hands-on “you are
there” tutorial trip down the circulatory system. At 10am she'll be walking
around medieval Verona with members of her English literature seminar to
act out a scene from Romeo and Juliet. At 11am she'll walk onto an
electronic tennis court for a couple of sets with her pal in Managua. At noon,
she'll take off her cyberwear and enjoy a sensual, tasty lunch with her family
in their nonelectronic kitchen.
4 © 2010 Perini Networks Europe Ltd

5. WHAT DOES THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE?
Timothy Leary Microsoft Surface
Wearable iPhone
Quoted in Cyberia,
computing Douglas Rushkoff, 1994
Second Life
By the year 2000, the IC (Inner City) kid will slip on the EyePhone, don a
form-fitting computer suit, and start inhabiting electronic environments either
self-designed or pulled up from menus.
At 9.00am she and her friend in Tokyo will meet in an electronic virtualisation
in Malibu Beach for a flirtatious moment. At 9.30am she will meet her biology
Serious
teacher in an electronic simulation of the heart for a hands-on “you are games
there” tutorial trip down the circulatory system. At 10am she'll be walking
around medieval Verona with members of her English literature seminar to
act out a scene from Romeo and Juliet. At 11am she'll walk onto an
electronic tennis court for a couple of sets with her pal in Managua. At noon,
she'll take off her cyberwear and enjoy a sensual, tasty lunch with her family
in their nonelectronic kitchen.
5 © 2010 Perini Networks Europe Ltd

6. PLANNING WITH SOCIAL
MEDIA

7. PLANNING WITH SOCIAL MEDIA
1. Scenario prediction
David Holmgren: Four energy futures
At this point, which outcome
is most likely?
7 © 2010 Perini Networks Europe Ltd

8. PLANNING WITH SOCIAL MEDIA
2. Channel distribution
“The future is
futu
tur
already here. It's
ady
just not very evenly
distributed”
stri
William Gibson
Gib
8 © 2010 Perini Networks Europe Ltd

9. PLANNING WITH SOCIAL MEDIA
2. Channel distribution
Google's crowdsourced predictive market system
Googlers from across the
company contribute
knowledge and opinions
which are aggregated
into a forecast by the
market.
Sometimes, just feeling
lucky isn't enough, and
these tools can help.
http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html
9 © 2010 Perini Networks Europe Ltd

10. PLANNING WITH SOCIAL MEDIA
3. Context and signifiers
10 © 2010 Perini Networks Europe Ltd

11. PLANNING WITH SOCIAL MEDIA
You can't predict the future,
but you can prepare for it.
University of North London advertising campaign
Uni of rth ndo ad erti
1993
1993
11 © 2010 Perini Networks Europe Ltd

12. PLANNING WITH SOCIAL MEDIA
Develop 3 scenarios for your
you
business.
How can social media help to
develop / refine these scenarios?
How can your business strategy
you
be more collaborative?
ore oll
12 © 2010 Perini Networks Europe Ltd

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