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Arthur CHARPENTIER - Unifying copula families and tail dependence




 Unifying standard multivariate copulas families
        (with tail dependence properties)

                                          Arthur Charpentier
                                        charpentier.arthur@uqam.ca

                                http ://freakonometrics.hypotheses.org/

                     inspired by some joint work (and discussion) with
                A.-L. Fougères, C. Genest, J. Nešlehová, J. Segers




                               January 2013, H.E.C. Lausanne

                                                                          1
Arthur CHARPENTIER - Unifying copula families and tail dependence




                                                        Agenda
•    Standard copula families
◦    Elliptical distributions (and copulas)
◦    Archimedean copulas
◦    Extreme value distributions (and copulas)
•    Tail dependence
◦    Tail indexes
◦    Limiting distributions
◦    Other properties of tail behavior




                                                                        2
Arthur CHARPENTIER - Unifying copula families and tail dependence




                                                     Copulas
Definition 1
A copula in dimension d is a c.d.f on [0, 1]d , with margins U([0, 1]).
Theorem 1 1. If C is a copula, and F1 , ..., Fd are univariate c.d.f., then

                      F (x1 , ..., xn ) = C(F1 (x1 ), ..., Fd (xd )) ∀(x1 , ..., xd ) ∈ Rd     (1)

    is a multivariate c.d.f. with F ∈ F(F1 , ..., Fd ).
 2. Conversely, if F ∈ F(F1 , ..., Fd ), there exists a copula C satisfying (1). This copula
    is usually not unique, but it is if F1 , ..., Fd are absolutely continuous, and then,
                                       −1             −1
                C(u1 , ..., ud ) = F (F1 (u1 ), ..., Fd (ud )), ∀(u1 , , ..., ud ) ∈ [0, 1]d   (2)
                              −1        −1
    where quantile functions F1 , ..., Fn are generalized inverse (left cont.) of Fi ’s.
If X ∼ F , then U = (F1 (X1 ), · · · , Fd (Xd )) ∼ C.


                                                                                               3
Arthur CHARPENTIER - Unifying copula families and tail dependence




                                  Survival (or dual) copulas
Theorem 2 1. If C is a copula, and F 1 , ..., F d are univariate s.d.f., then

                     F (x1 , ..., xn ) = C (F 1 (x1 ), ..., F d (xd )) ∀(x1 , ..., xd ) ∈ Rd     (3)

    is a multivariate s.d.f. with F ∈ F(F1 , ..., Fd ).
 2. Conversely, if F ∈ F(F1 , ..., Fd ), there exists a copula C satisfying (3). This
    copula is usually not unique, but it is if F1 , ..., Fd are absolutely continuous, and
    then,
                                               −1                    −1
               C (u1 , ..., ud ) = F (F 1 (u1 ), ..., F d (ud )), ∀(u1 , , ..., ud ) ∈ [0, 1]d   (4)
                              −1        −1
    where quantile functions F1 , ..., Fn are generalized inverse (left cont.) of Fi ’s.
If X ∼ F , then U = (F1 (X1 ), · · · , Fd (Xd )) ∼ C and 1 − U ∼ C .



                                                                                                 4
Arthur CHARPENTIER - Unifying copula families and tail dependence




                                         Benchmark copulas
Definition 2
The independent copula C ⊥ is defined as
                                                                          d
                               C ⊥ (u1 , ..., un ) = u1 × · · · × ud =         ui .
                                                                         i=1


Definition 3
The comonotonic copula C + (the Fréchet-Hoeffding upper bound of the set of copulas)
is the copuladefined as C + (u1 , ..., ud ) = min{u1 , ..., ud }.




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Arthur CHARPENTIER - Unifying copula families and tail dependence




                                     Spherical distributions
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Definition 4
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Random vector X as a spherical distribution if
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where R is a positive random variable and U is uniformly dis-
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Those distribution can be non-symmetric, see Hartman & Wintner (AJM, 1940)
or Cambanis, Huang & Simons (JMVA, 1979))

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    6
Arthur CHARPENTIER - Unifying copula families and tail dependence




                                      Elliptical distributions

Definition 5




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                             X =µ+R·A·U
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where R is a positive random variable and U is uniformly dis-
tributed on the unit sphere of Rd , with R ⊥ U . , and where A
                                           ⊥




                                                                     2
satisfies AA = Σ.                                                                                                                                                            q
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E.g. X ∼ N (µ, Σ).
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                                                                     −2
                                                                                           −2                                                      −1                                                     0                                                    1                                                 2




Elliptical distribution are popular in finance, see e.g. Jondeau, Poon & Rockinger
(FMPM, 2008)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      7
Arthur CHARPENTIER - Unifying copula families and tail dependence




                                        Archimedean copula
Definition 6
If d ≥ 2, an Archimedean generator is a function φ : [0, 1] → [0, ∞) such that φ−1 is
d-completely monotone (i.e. ψ is d-completely monotone if ψ is continuous and
∀k = 0, 1, ..., d, (−1)k dk ψ(t)/dtk ≥ 0).
Definition 7
Copula C is an Archimedean copula is, for some generator φ,

                C(u1 , ..., ud ) = φ−1 (φ(u1 ) + ... + φ(ud )), ∀u1 , ..., ud ∈ [0, 1].

Exemple1
φ(t) = − log(t) yields the independent copula C ⊥ .




                                                                                          8
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Slides lausanne-2013-v2

  • 1. Arthur CHARPENTIER - Unifying copula families and tail dependence Unifying standard multivariate copulas families (with tail dependence properties) Arthur Charpentier charpentier.arthur@uqam.ca http ://freakonometrics.hypotheses.org/ inspired by some joint work (and discussion) with A.-L. Fougères, C. Genest, J. Nešlehová, J. Segers January 2013, H.E.C. Lausanne 1
  • 2. Arthur CHARPENTIER - Unifying copula families and tail dependence Agenda • Standard copula families ◦ Elliptical distributions (and copulas) ◦ Archimedean copulas ◦ Extreme value distributions (and copulas) • Tail dependence ◦ Tail indexes ◦ Limiting distributions ◦ Other properties of tail behavior 2
  • 3. Arthur CHARPENTIER - Unifying copula families and tail dependence Copulas Definition 1 A copula in dimension d is a c.d.f on [0, 1]d , with margins U([0, 1]). Theorem 1 1. If C is a copula, and F1 , ..., Fd are univariate c.d.f., then F (x1 , ..., xn ) = C(F1 (x1 ), ..., Fd (xd )) ∀(x1 , ..., xd ) ∈ Rd (1) is a multivariate c.d.f. with F ∈ F(F1 , ..., Fd ). 2. Conversely, if F ∈ F(F1 , ..., Fd ), there exists a copula C satisfying (1). This copula is usually not unique, but it is if F1 , ..., Fd are absolutely continuous, and then, −1 −1 C(u1 , ..., ud ) = F (F1 (u1 ), ..., Fd (ud )), ∀(u1 , , ..., ud ) ∈ [0, 1]d (2) −1 −1 where quantile functions F1 , ..., Fn are generalized inverse (left cont.) of Fi ’s. If X ∼ F , then U = (F1 (X1 ), · · · , Fd (Xd )) ∼ C. 3
  • 4. Arthur CHARPENTIER - Unifying copula families and tail dependence Survival (or dual) copulas Theorem 2 1. If C is a copula, and F 1 , ..., F d are univariate s.d.f., then F (x1 , ..., xn ) = C (F 1 (x1 ), ..., F d (xd )) ∀(x1 , ..., xd ) ∈ Rd (3) is a multivariate s.d.f. with F ∈ F(F1 , ..., Fd ). 2. Conversely, if F ∈ F(F1 , ..., Fd ), there exists a copula C satisfying (3). This copula is usually not unique, but it is if F1 , ..., Fd are absolutely continuous, and then, −1 −1 C (u1 , ..., ud ) = F (F 1 (u1 ), ..., F d (ud )), ∀(u1 , , ..., ud ) ∈ [0, 1]d (4) −1 −1 where quantile functions F1 , ..., Fn are generalized inverse (left cont.) of Fi ’s. If X ∼ F , then U = (F1 (X1 ), · · · , Fd (Xd )) ∼ C and 1 − U ∼ C . 4
  • 5. Arthur CHARPENTIER - Unifying copula families and tail dependence Benchmark copulas Definition 2 The independent copula C ⊥ is defined as d C ⊥ (u1 , ..., un ) = u1 × · · · × ud = ui . i=1 Definition 3 The comonotonic copula C + (the Fréchet-Hoeffding upper bound of the set of copulas) is the copuladefined as C + (u1 , ..., ud ) = min{u1 , ..., ud }. 5
  • 6. Arthur CHARPENTIER - Unifying copula families and tail dependence Spherical distributions q q q 2 q q q q q Definition 4 q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q 1 q q q qq qq q qq q q q qq q q q q q qq qq qq qq qq q q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q q q q qq q qq qqq q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q qq q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q qq q q Random vector X as a spherical distribution if q qq q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq 0 q q q q qq q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q qq q q q qq q q q q qqqq q qq q q q qq qq −1 qq q q q q q q q q qq qqq qqq qq q qq q q qq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q X =R·U q q q −2 q q q q q −2 −1 0 1 2 where R is a positive random variable and U is uniformly dis- tributed on the unit sphere of Rd , with R ⊥ U . ⊥ q q q 0.02 2 q q q q 0.04 q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q 0.08 q q q q q 1 q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q 0.14 q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q 0 q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q 0.12 q q q qq q q q q qq q q q −1 q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q E.g. X ∼ N (0, I). q q q q q q 0.06 q q q q q q q q −2 q q q q q −2 −1 0 1 2 Those distribution can be non-symmetric, see Hartman & Wintner (AJM, 1940) or Cambanis, Huang & Simons (JMVA, 1979)) 6
  • 7. Arthur CHARPENTIER - Unifying copula families and tail dependence Elliptical distributions Definition 5 2 q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q 1 q q q q q q q q Random vector X as a elliptical distribution if q q q q qq q qq q qqq q q qq qq q qq q qq q q qq q q q q q qqq q q q qq qq q qqq q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q qq q q qq q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q q qq qq q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q qq q q q q q q q 0 q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qq q q q qq q q q q qq q qq q q qq q q q qq q q q q q q q q qq qq q qq qq qq q q q qq qqq q q q q qq q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q qq qq q q qq q qqq q q qq q q q q q q −1 q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q X =µ+R·A·U q q q q q q q q q −2 −2 −1 0 1 2 where R is a positive random variable and U is uniformly dis- tributed on the unit sphere of Rd , with R ⊥ U . , and where A ⊥ 2 satisfies AA = Σ. q q q q q q 0.06 q 0.04 qq 0.02 q q q q q q q q q 1 q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q 0.12 q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q qq q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q 0 q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q 0.14 qq qqq q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q −1 q q q q q q q q q q 0.08q q q q q q q q q q q q q E.g. X ∼ N (µ, Σ). q −2 −2 −1 0 1 2 Elliptical distribution are popular in finance, see e.g. Jondeau, Poon & Rockinger (FMPM, 2008) 7
  • 8. Arthur CHARPENTIER - Unifying copula families and tail dependence Archimedean copula Definition 6 If d ≥ 2, an Archimedean generator is a function φ : [0, 1] → [0, ∞) such that φ−1 is d-completely monotone (i.e. ψ is d-completely monotone if ψ is continuous and ∀k = 0, 1, ..., d, (−1)k dk ψ(t)/dtk ≥ 0). Definition 7 Copula C is an Archimedean copula is, for some generator φ, C(u1 , ..., ud ) = φ−1 (φ(u1 ) + ... + φ(ud )), ∀u1 , ..., ud ∈ [0, 1]. Exemple1 φ(t) = − log(t) yields the independent copula C ⊥ . 8