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Sibling competition lengthens while
hazardous environments shorten
optimal human birth spacing

Matthew G Thomas†1, Daryl P Shanley†2,
Thomas B L Kirkwood2 and Ruth Mace1
1

Human Evolutionary Ecology Group, University College London, UK

2

Institute for Ageing and Health, Newcastle University, UK
Birth intervals increase with age…
… and range 3-5 years in natural fertility
populations
Younger children can increase their siblings’ risk
of dying
Question: How do birth intervals adapt to
ecology and sibling competition?
We developed a state-dependent optimality
model
Optimises reproductive decisions,
given female’s state

Females have a state:
Her age and the ages of her children
How do birth intervals adapt to ecology?
Probability of death

High mortality environment
(Tsimane foragers)

1
0.8
0.6

Low mortality environment
(1960s Sweden)

0.4
0.2
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

Age (years)

60

70

80

90
Sibling competition increases mortality
Weight on siblings’ mortality
1
High intensity
competition

0.8

Low intensity
competition

0.6
0.4

Medium intensity
competition

0.2

No competition

0
0
-0.2

2

4

6

8

Child age (years)

10

12

14
Results
High mortality environments shorten birth
spacing
4

Birth interval
(years)

Low mortality environment
(1960s Sweden)

3

2

High mortality environment
(Tsimane)

1

Age (years)

0
15

30

45

60

75

90
Sibling competition lengthens birth intervals
5

Birth interval
(years)

High competition
Medium competition

4

3

2

Low competition
No competition

1

Low mortality environment
(Modern Sweden)

0
15

40

65

90
15
Age (years)

High mortality environment
(Tsimane)
40

65

90
We have shown plausible mechanisms for how
reproductive schedules adapt to mortality risks
But no menopause
Our state-dependent framework can also
- examine juvenile help
- test ‘mother effect’
Collaborators:
Daryl Shanley (joint first author)
Tom Kirkwood; Ruth Mace

Thanks:
Human Evolutionary Ecology Group (UCL)

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Sibling competition lengthens while hazardous environments shorten optimal human birth spacing

  • 1. Sibling competition lengthens while hazardous environments shorten optimal human birth spacing Matthew G Thomas†1, Daryl P Shanley†2, Thomas B L Kirkwood2 and Ruth Mace1 1 Human Evolutionary Ecology Group, University College London, UK 2 Institute for Ageing and Health, Newcastle University, UK
  • 2. Birth intervals increase with age… … and range 3-5 years in natural fertility populations Younger children can increase their siblings’ risk of dying
  • 3. Question: How do birth intervals adapt to ecology and sibling competition? We developed a state-dependent optimality model Optimises reproductive decisions, given female’s state Females have a state: Her age and the ages of her children
  • 4. How do birth intervals adapt to ecology? Probability of death High mortality environment (Tsimane foragers) 1 0.8 0.6 Low mortality environment (1960s Sweden) 0.4 0.2 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Age (years) 60 70 80 90
  • 5. Sibling competition increases mortality Weight on siblings’ mortality 1 High intensity competition 0.8 Low intensity competition 0.6 0.4 Medium intensity competition 0.2 No competition 0 0 -0.2 2 4 6 8 Child age (years) 10 12 14
  • 7. High mortality environments shorten birth spacing 4 Birth interval (years) Low mortality environment (1960s Sweden) 3 2 High mortality environment (Tsimane) 1 Age (years) 0 15 30 45 60 75 90
  • 8. Sibling competition lengthens birth intervals 5 Birth interval (years) High competition Medium competition 4 3 2 Low competition No competition 1 Low mortality environment (Modern Sweden) 0 15 40 65 90 15 Age (years) High mortality environment (Tsimane) 40 65 90
  • 9. We have shown plausible mechanisms for how reproductive schedules adapt to mortality risks But no menopause Our state-dependent framework can also - examine juvenile help - test ‘mother effect’
  • 10. Collaborators: Daryl Shanley (joint first author) Tom Kirkwood; Ruth Mace Thanks: Human Evolutionary Ecology Group (UCL)