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Challenging the Tradition
China in the midst of Urbanization and Globalization




                                          SHI, Nan
                                          2 0 11 -1 2- 08


               Moscow Urban Forum
Guilin, Courtesy of Yu Huai
Northam’s Curve
                                                            E
                                       D



                                   C

                         B
          A




                         Point A                        Point E                                  Point B                      Point D
                                                                            Average
                                                                             Speed
              GDP/Capita($)    R of U (%)   GDP/Capita($)       R of U(%)             GDP/Capita($)   R of Ub(%)   GDP/Capita($)     R of U (%)

Average           696              25.8        24750              74.2       0.136       1480              31.3       11635              68.6

China             696              16.8        24750              65.2       0.136       1480              22.3       11635              59.6




  Urbanization Process in China in Last 6 Decades                                                                  Source: China National Statistics
Number & Size of Cites in China in Last 3 Decades




                                     Arable Land(10,000 ha)
13200

13000

12800

12600

12400

12200

12000

11800

11600
        1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004    2005    2006    2007      2008      2010
                                                                                       Source: Based on China National Statistics
Development Zones in China




                                     National &
                                     Provisional DZs:
                                     1568 (9949KM2)
                                     1049 counties with at
                                     least 1 DZs




DZs   KM2




                              Source: NDRC
Environmental Factors of Urbanization
                                        Source: China National Statistics
100,0%
            GDP and Consumption of Industrial Goods (China/World %, 2010)
                                                               8,50%
 90,0%                                                                                                     86,0%

 80,0%                               52,0%
                                                             45,0%
 70,0%

 60,0%
                                                 43,0%
 50,0%                                                                                  45,0%
                           GDP            Coal       Steel           Cement
           40,0%
 40,0%

 30,0%                 25,0%                                  26,0%

 20,0%

                                   8,0%                                   9,7%
 10,0%
                                                 4,1%
  0,0%
         Arable Land   Water        Oil           Gas         Copper    Aluminium          Iron             Coal

                               Resources Per Capita(China/World,%)
                                                                                    Source: Based on China National Statistics
China’s Oil Import (Mtoe)                                           GDP Growth Rate (%)
                                                                                                                               Electricity Consumption
                                                                                                                                    Increase Rate (%)




                                                                                                                   Energy Consumption Increase Rate (%)
                                                Source: NEB, 2010
                                                                                                                                    Based on Survey of 287 Cities in 2006




              World Energy Consumption (Mtoe)                                   World Energy Consumption Per Capita




                                                                                      Source: Based on BP, IMF, 2010




                                                                                                  Source: based on China Statistics, etc
Source: UNDP
Global economic recession
              Economic Restructure
           Agricultural Modernization
              Bridge the regional gap
                                        Streamlined Regional
                                             Guidelines

                    Demands for
                    Urbanization
Challenges for
 Urbanization                                                  Enhance global competitiveness
                                           Spatial             Promote regional cooperation
  Migration                               Strategy             Promote social coherence
 Tendencies                                                    Encourage sustainable economy
                     Supporting
                     Conditions

                                            Multi-level
                                         Diversified Urban
                                              System
                 Physical Conditions
                  Land Resources
              Water, Energy Condition
              Environmental Capacity
National Territories                      Demands

  Categories       Categories
                                 Primary Outputs   Secondary Outputs
  by Function     By Land Use




Development                      Industrial        Agricultural &
Optimized Area    Urbanized
                                 Products and      Ecological
                  Region
                                 Services          Products
Development
                                                   Ecological
Priority Area     Agricultural
                                 Agricultural      Products, Services
                  Production                       and Industrial
                                 Products
Development       Region                           Products
Restricted Area
                  Key                              Agricultural,
                                 Ecological
                  Ecological                       Services &
Development                      Goods             Industrial Products
                  Region
Prohibited Area
National Spatial Strategy for Urbanization




                                             Source: NDRC   13
Strategy: Development Restricted Areas




  25 National Eco-districts



                Source: NDRC
Strategy: Agricultural Production
Strategy: Ecological Security




                                Source: NDRC
Strategy: Development Prohibited Areas




                                         Source: NDRC
Regional Policy:
Coastal East

Quality instead of speed of
urbanization
• Global competitiveness: Beijing-Tianjin-
  Hebei, Yangtze Delta, Pear River Delta
  agglomeration
• Inclusive growth for migrants
Urban network instead of urban
hierarchy
• Dissemination of industries to medium
  and small cities
• Upgrading and regeneration of big cities
Livable city instead of
manufacturing base
• Regional ecological rehabilitation
• Low carbon technology in urban
  development
• Affordable urban life
                                             Source: Mohurd
Regional Policy:
Central China

Capacity building to enhance the
location strength

• Provincial capitals and city clusters
• Regional centers, county seats and rural
  towns
• Balanced migration
Promote the agricultural
productivity for the national food
security
• Arable land preservation
• Green industries


Infrastructure improvements

• Regional communications
• Water conservancy
                                             Source: Mohurd
Regional Policy:
Western China
Concentrated Polarization
Strategy
• Central city-region
• County seat town, industrial city

Prioritized Strategy

• New energy town
• Frontier city
• Revitalization of mine city etc.
Redistribution of Industries
and Rural Population
• Density of settlements
• Ecological conservation
• Resilient city                      Source: Mohurd
Regional Policy:
North-Eastern Region
Regeneration the Old
Industrial Cities
• Upgrading the infrastructures and
  services
• Economic restructuring

Frontier Cities Growth
• Cross Boarder Communications
• Regional urban system

Small City and Town
Development
• Rural centers
• Ecological rehabilitation
• Regional facilities
                                      Source: Mohurd
China’s
                        Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei




World
City          Beijing & Environs
              Modern International City by 2020
Initiatives   World City by 2050




                                                                         Yangtze Delta



                                                                         Shanghai & Yangtze Delta
                                                                         International Financial,
                                                                         Trade, Manufacturing and
                                                                         Shipping Center




                                                                    Hong Kong & Pearl Delta
                                                                    International Financial, Trade
                                                                    and Manufacturing Center
                                                Pearl River Delta
Conclusions
Spatial strategic planning at national and regional levels has been prove a
big success during the “compressed” urbanization in China.

For a country like China with vast territory, huge population and fast
economic growth, it is essential to emphasize on the development of
major urban centers/agglomerations to build up the national
competitiveness in globalization.
Maintaining a rational urban growth rate is important, even more
important is to bridge the gaps between different sectors, regions and
social groups.

Bottom-up initiatives are of particular importance while the top-down
systematic innovation has always played special role in the process of
industrialization, urbanization and marketization in China.
• Thanks




   Shi Nan            中国城市规划学会
   shinan@china.com   Urban Planning Society of China
   +86-10-5832-3851   www.planning.org.cn
   +86-13801125011    Fax: +86-10-5832-3850

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Shi Nan. Challenging the Tradition

  • 1. Challenging the Tradition China in the midst of Urbanization and Globalization SHI, Nan 2 0 11 -1 2- 08 Moscow Urban Forum
  • 3.
  • 4. Northam’s Curve E D C B A Point A Point E Point B Point D Average Speed GDP/Capita($) R of U (%) GDP/Capita($) R of U(%) GDP/Capita($) R of Ub(%) GDP/Capita($) R of U (%) Average 696 25.8 24750 74.2 0.136 1480 31.3 11635 68.6 China 696 16.8 24750 65.2 0.136 1480 22.3 11635 59.6 Urbanization Process in China in Last 6 Decades Source: China National Statistics
  • 5. Number & Size of Cites in China in Last 3 Decades Arable Land(10,000 ha) 13200 13000 12800 12600 12400 12200 12000 11800 11600 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 Source: Based on China National Statistics
  • 6. Development Zones in China National & Provisional DZs: 1568 (9949KM2) 1049 counties with at least 1 DZs DZs KM2 Source: NDRC
  • 7. Environmental Factors of Urbanization Source: China National Statistics
  • 8. 100,0% GDP and Consumption of Industrial Goods (China/World %, 2010) 8,50% 90,0% 86,0% 80,0% 52,0% 45,0% 70,0% 60,0% 43,0% 50,0% 45,0% GDP Coal Steel Cement 40,0% 40,0% 30,0% 25,0% 26,0% 20,0% 8,0% 9,7% 10,0% 4,1% 0,0% Arable Land Water Oil Gas Copper Aluminium Iron Coal Resources Per Capita(China/World,%) Source: Based on China National Statistics
  • 9. China’s Oil Import (Mtoe) GDP Growth Rate (%) Electricity Consumption Increase Rate (%) Energy Consumption Increase Rate (%) Source: NEB, 2010 Based on Survey of 287 Cities in 2006 World Energy Consumption (Mtoe) World Energy Consumption Per Capita Source: Based on BP, IMF, 2010 Source: based on China Statistics, etc
  • 11. Global economic recession Economic Restructure Agricultural Modernization Bridge the regional gap Streamlined Regional Guidelines Demands for Urbanization Challenges for Urbanization Enhance global competitiveness Spatial Promote regional cooperation Migration Strategy Promote social coherence Tendencies Encourage sustainable economy Supporting Conditions Multi-level Diversified Urban System Physical Conditions Land Resources Water, Energy Condition Environmental Capacity
  • 12. National Territories Demands Categories Categories Primary Outputs Secondary Outputs by Function By Land Use Development Industrial Agricultural & Optimized Area Urbanized Products and Ecological Region Services Products Development Ecological Priority Area Agricultural Agricultural Products, Services Production and Industrial Products Development Region Products Restricted Area Key Agricultural, Ecological Ecological Services & Development Goods Industrial Products Region Prohibited Area
  • 13. National Spatial Strategy for Urbanization Source: NDRC 13
  • 14. Strategy: Development Restricted Areas 25 National Eco-districts Source: NDRC
  • 17. Strategy: Development Prohibited Areas Source: NDRC
  • 18. Regional Policy: Coastal East Quality instead of speed of urbanization • Global competitiveness: Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei, Yangtze Delta, Pear River Delta agglomeration • Inclusive growth for migrants Urban network instead of urban hierarchy • Dissemination of industries to medium and small cities • Upgrading and regeneration of big cities Livable city instead of manufacturing base • Regional ecological rehabilitation • Low carbon technology in urban development • Affordable urban life Source: Mohurd
  • 19. Regional Policy: Central China Capacity building to enhance the location strength • Provincial capitals and city clusters • Regional centers, county seats and rural towns • Balanced migration Promote the agricultural productivity for the national food security • Arable land preservation • Green industries Infrastructure improvements • Regional communications • Water conservancy Source: Mohurd
  • 20. Regional Policy: Western China Concentrated Polarization Strategy • Central city-region • County seat town, industrial city Prioritized Strategy • New energy town • Frontier city • Revitalization of mine city etc. Redistribution of Industries and Rural Population • Density of settlements • Ecological conservation • Resilient city Source: Mohurd
  • 21. Regional Policy: North-Eastern Region Regeneration the Old Industrial Cities • Upgrading the infrastructures and services • Economic restructuring Frontier Cities Growth • Cross Boarder Communications • Regional urban system Small City and Town Development • Rural centers • Ecological rehabilitation • Regional facilities Source: Mohurd
  • 22. China’s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei World City Beijing & Environs Modern International City by 2020 Initiatives World City by 2050 Yangtze Delta Shanghai & Yangtze Delta International Financial, Trade, Manufacturing and Shipping Center Hong Kong & Pearl Delta International Financial, Trade and Manufacturing Center Pearl River Delta
  • 23. Conclusions Spatial strategic planning at national and regional levels has been prove a big success during the “compressed” urbanization in China. For a country like China with vast territory, huge population and fast economic growth, it is essential to emphasize on the development of major urban centers/agglomerations to build up the national competitiveness in globalization. Maintaining a rational urban growth rate is important, even more important is to bridge the gaps between different sectors, regions and social groups. Bottom-up initiatives are of particular importance while the top-down systematic innovation has always played special role in the process of industrialization, urbanization and marketization in China.
  • 24. • Thanks Shi Nan 中国城市规划学会 shinan@china.com Urban Planning Society of China +86-10-5832-3851 www.planning.org.cn +86-13801125011 Fax: +86-10-5832-3850