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Increased forest resistance to extreme
atmospheric dryness: a case study of
two characteristics Swiss forests
Ankit Shekhar1, Lukas Hortnagl1, Nina Buchmann1, Mana Gharun1,2
1 Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
2 Faculty of Geosciences, University of Münster, 48149 Münster, Germany
9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 1
Day to day weather – Air temperature
9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 2
∆T ≈ 8°C
∆T ≈ -7°C
Day to day weather – VPD
9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 3
Day to day: Daytime NEP
9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 4
NEP = Net ecosystem productivity
CO2 release
CO2 uptake
Forest productivity & functioning
 Forest productivity ≈ f(Biotic factors, Weather, non-weather abiotic…)
 Tree physiology (leaf-level gas exchange processes) adjusts with
environmental fluctuations -> A process of physiological acclimatization.
 Sudden or abrupt changes might affect the process of physiological
acclimatization -> change in forest NEP
Objective & Hypothesis
 Assess the impact of abrupt dryness incident on forest NEP.
 Hypothesis - Forest’s NEP is affected more by abrupt changes in
dryness than by progressive changes in dryness.
9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 5
 CH-Lae:
- Montane Mixed Forest.
- Elevation of 689 m a.s.l.
- Site dominated by European Beech.
- EC based flux measurement from 2004
- 2020
 CH-Dav:
- Sub-alpine Coniferous Forest (Norway
Spruce)
- Elevation of 1639 m a.s.l.
- EC based flux measurement from
1997-2020
Two characteristic forest sites
9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 6
Zweifel et al., 2021
Normal weather condition
9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022
7
Retrospective LOWESS - Local weighted regression based on only
past days.
(VPDnw)
Abrupt and progressive dryness incidents
9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 8
Abrupt dryness:
∆VPD > 95th percentile
∆VPD = VPD - VPDnw
Progressive dryness:
VPDi – VPDi-1 < 1𝛔
Progressive dryness incident –> days with progressive increase
in VPD within its normal day to day variability.
Occurrences of Abrupt dryness
9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 9
Site/days Dav Lae
Abrupt Dryness 308 171
Progressive dryness 296 186
Forest experience abrupt
dryness up to 9% of its CUP
Hypothesis testing
 Forest’s NEP is affected more by abrupt changes in dryness than by
progressive changes in dryness
∆NEPabrupt > ∆NEPprogressive
∆NEPabrupt = NEPobs,abrupt – NEPnon-abrupt
∆NEPabrupt = NEPobs,progressive – NEPnon-abrupt
NEPobs,abrupt & NEPobs,progressive is observed NEP on days with abrupt
and progressive dryness.
NEPnon-abrupt is expected NEP (modelled) under normal conditions.
9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 10
Expected NEPnon-abrupt
 Use of Random Forest regression to estimate NEPnon-abrupt
 Train: Days excluding abrupt or progressive incidents (normal
days).
9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 11
NEP ~ RFR{DOY, Tair, VPD,
Rg, Precipitation}normal days
NEPnon-abrupt = RFR{DOY, Tair,
VPD, Rg, Precipitation}
R2 = 0.86
Lae
R2 = 0.91
Dav
Impact of Abrupt Dryness
9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 12
∆𝑁𝐸𝑃 = NEPobs – NEPnon−abrupt
Hypothesis is true
Abrupt dryness results in about 9-10% decrease in NEP
Dav Lae
Resistance to Abrupt dryness
9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 13
 Resistance – Impact of abrupt dryness in comparison to normal weather
dryness
𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 =
𝑁𝐸𝑃𝑜𝑏𝑠,𝑎𝑏𝑟𝑢𝑝𝑡 𝑉𝑃𝐷 − 𝑁𝐸𝑃𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙,𝑤𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑉𝑃𝐷
𝑉𝑃𝐷𝑎𝑏𝑟𝑢𝑝𝑡 − 𝑉𝑃𝐷𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑤𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟
𝑁𝐸𝑃𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙,𝑤𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑉𝑃𝐷
NEP at:
VPD = mean weather VPD
Tair = temperature at normal
VPD with RH at abrupt VPD
Resistance to Abrupt dryness
9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 14
𝑁𝐸𝑃𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙,𝑤𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑉𝑃𝐷 - Takes into account the impact of abrupt VPD also
on temperature change.
 Resistance: Dav > Lae
 Increasing trend in
Resistance at Lae
Europe-wide analysis 1970-2020
Discussion & Remarks
 Forest NEP decreased by ~10% due to abrupt dryness incidents.
 Occurrence of abrupt weather ≈ Variance in day-to-day weather.
9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 15
 The occurrences of sudden
weather days has increased
over last 50 years in Europe.
 Relevance of abrupt changes in
weather conditions for identifying
physiological extremes.

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Shekhar, Ankit: Increased forest resistance to extreme atmospheric dryness: a case study of two characteristic Swiss forests

  • 1. Increased forest resistance to extreme atmospheric dryness: a case study of two characteristics Swiss forests Ankit Shekhar1, Lukas Hortnagl1, Nina Buchmann1, Mana Gharun1,2 1 Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland 2 Faculty of Geosciences, University of Münster, 48149 Münster, Germany 9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 1
  • 2. Day to day weather – Air temperature 9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 2 ∆T ≈ 8°C ∆T ≈ -7°C
  • 3. Day to day weather – VPD 9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 3
  • 4. Day to day: Daytime NEP 9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 4 NEP = Net ecosystem productivity CO2 release CO2 uptake
  • 5. Forest productivity & functioning  Forest productivity ≈ f(Biotic factors, Weather, non-weather abiotic…)  Tree physiology (leaf-level gas exchange processes) adjusts with environmental fluctuations -> A process of physiological acclimatization.  Sudden or abrupt changes might affect the process of physiological acclimatization -> change in forest NEP Objective & Hypothesis  Assess the impact of abrupt dryness incident on forest NEP.  Hypothesis - Forest’s NEP is affected more by abrupt changes in dryness than by progressive changes in dryness. 9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 5
  • 6.  CH-Lae: - Montane Mixed Forest. - Elevation of 689 m a.s.l. - Site dominated by European Beech. - EC based flux measurement from 2004 - 2020  CH-Dav: - Sub-alpine Coniferous Forest (Norway Spruce) - Elevation of 1639 m a.s.l. - EC based flux measurement from 1997-2020 Two characteristic forest sites 9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 6 Zweifel et al., 2021
  • 7. Normal weather condition 9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 7 Retrospective LOWESS - Local weighted regression based on only past days. (VPDnw)
  • 8. Abrupt and progressive dryness incidents 9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 8 Abrupt dryness: ∆VPD > 95th percentile ∆VPD = VPD - VPDnw Progressive dryness: VPDi – VPDi-1 < 1𝛔 Progressive dryness incident –> days with progressive increase in VPD within its normal day to day variability.
  • 9. Occurrences of Abrupt dryness 9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 9 Site/days Dav Lae Abrupt Dryness 308 171 Progressive dryness 296 186 Forest experience abrupt dryness up to 9% of its CUP
  • 10. Hypothesis testing  Forest’s NEP is affected more by abrupt changes in dryness than by progressive changes in dryness ∆NEPabrupt > ∆NEPprogressive ∆NEPabrupt = NEPobs,abrupt – NEPnon-abrupt ∆NEPabrupt = NEPobs,progressive – NEPnon-abrupt NEPobs,abrupt & NEPobs,progressive is observed NEP on days with abrupt and progressive dryness. NEPnon-abrupt is expected NEP (modelled) under normal conditions. 9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 10
  • 11. Expected NEPnon-abrupt  Use of Random Forest regression to estimate NEPnon-abrupt  Train: Days excluding abrupt or progressive incidents (normal days). 9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 11 NEP ~ RFR{DOY, Tair, VPD, Rg, Precipitation}normal days NEPnon-abrupt = RFR{DOY, Tair, VPD, Rg, Precipitation} R2 = 0.86 Lae R2 = 0.91 Dav
  • 12. Impact of Abrupt Dryness 9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 12 ∆𝑁𝐸𝑃 = NEPobs – NEPnon−abrupt Hypothesis is true Abrupt dryness results in about 9-10% decrease in NEP Dav Lae
  • 13. Resistance to Abrupt dryness 9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 13  Resistance – Impact of abrupt dryness in comparison to normal weather dryness 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 = 𝑁𝐸𝑃𝑜𝑏𝑠,𝑎𝑏𝑟𝑢𝑝𝑡 𝑉𝑃𝐷 − 𝑁𝐸𝑃𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙,𝑤𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑉𝑃𝐷 𝑉𝑃𝐷𝑎𝑏𝑟𝑢𝑝𝑡 − 𝑉𝑃𝐷𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑤𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑁𝐸𝑃𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙,𝑤𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑉𝑃𝐷 NEP at: VPD = mean weather VPD Tair = temperature at normal VPD with RH at abrupt VPD
  • 14. Resistance to Abrupt dryness 9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 14 𝑁𝐸𝑃𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙,𝑤𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑉𝑃𝐷 - Takes into account the impact of abrupt VPD also on temperature change.  Resistance: Dav > Lae  Increasing trend in Resistance at Lae
  • 15. Europe-wide analysis 1970-2020 Discussion & Remarks  Forest NEP decreased by ~10% due to abrupt dryness incidents.  Occurrence of abrupt weather ≈ Variance in day-to-day weather. 9/15/22 ICOS Science Conference 2022 15  The occurrences of sudden weather days has increased over last 50 years in Europe.  Relevance of abrupt changes in weather conditions for identifying physiological extremes.