This presentation looks at different aspects of the Canadian economy as part of helping business and people understand the pressures Canada is facing both domestically as well as internationally. The presentation will look at retail sales, housing starts, income, employment, government spending, key industry metrics and exports.

1. Economic Scorecard – Canada – 3Q16
PaulYoung | PaulYoung CPA, CGA
Date: November 25, 2016

2. Presentation Description
This presentation will look at the 3Q16 economic trends for Canada

3. Agenda
 GDP Forecast
 Key Industry Indicators
 Employment
 Wages
 Housing Market
 Retail Sales
 Canadian Manufacturing Sales
 Canada Exports

4. GDP Forecast
Source – Scotiabank

5. Key Indicators (base on volume, counts)
Source – BMO,Association of Equipment Manufacturers, World Steel Institute and Baker Hughes

6. Canada Employment
Comments:
• There 64K less goods producing jobs as compare to December 2015. Low commodity prices have impacted oil/gas as well as the mining sector
• Service sector jobs lead the way which bulk of the hiring in areas like healthcare and public administration
• Part-time jobs are leading the way in terms of new jobs.
• Liberal comments “At a recent meeting of Liberal Party insiders, the finance minister said government must do a better job of adapting to the
changing workplace. Morneau suggested precarious work is here to stay, and that Canadians and their governments better get used to it. source -
http://spon.ca/bill-morneau-is-half-right-about-precarious-labour/2016/10/30/

7. Canada Employment
Comments:
• Wage growth has been very sluggish in 2016
• Cut backs to healthcare have impacted wages
• Many governments have hiring freezes and/or wage freezes
• Liberal comment - Wages are based on market conditions. If government impose carbon taxation and/or CPP hikes then that will influence what
business can afford to pay to their employees Source - http://www.rcinet.ca/en/2016/03/09/guaranteed-income-coming-to-canada/

8. Housing Market
Comments:
• Housing prices are growing at a 6-
8% growth rate as compare to GDP
(1.2%) or Inflation (1.9% or wage
growth (0.4%) – How are housing
prices sustainable?
• Liberals imposed new rules to
mortgages -
http://www.bnn.ca/mortgage-
lenders-swamped-as-homebuyers-
race-to-beat-new-stress-test-rules-
1.585079
• There are systemic issues with
housing -
http://www.slideshare.net/paulyou
ngcga/real-estate-trends-and-
analysis-canada-october-2016

9. Retail Sales
Stats Canada
Commentary:
• The liberals family tax benefit and tax cuts
to middle class have not help retail sales
• New carbon taxation rules for Ontario and
Alberta will impact retail sales. It could
carbon tax could cost the family
household $2,500 year
• Automotive has led the retail sales for
2016.
• Household debt continues to rise -
http://business.financialpost.com/news/ec
onomy/canadas-household-debt-is-now-
bigger-than-its-gdp-for-the-first-time

10. Canada Manufacturing Sales
Stats Canada
Commentary:
• Transportation sales are close $11B higher
than 2015.
• Forestry sales are up. However, the
softwood lumber dispute has not been
resolved -
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/softwood
-lumber-dispute-investigation-commerce-
dept-1.3866975
• Food manufacturing has also had a good
year
• Energy related products have rebounded
the past two months. However, low
commodity prices are still a drag on oil and
gas sector

11. Canada Exports
Stats Canada
Commentary:
• Oil exports have rebounded in 3Q16
• There has been a drop $3B in exports
related to consumer goods.
• Capital equipment spending has been flat
in 2016.
• Canada has been running trade
imbalances throughout 2016.

12. Liberal Spending – ForeignAid
 Funding to Hamas restored ($25M) - http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/unrwa-funding-palestinian-restored-1.3852779
 Funding to Haiti ($54M) - http://ipolitics.ca/2016/11/18/trudeau-government-unveils-54-million-aid-package-for-haiti/
 Funding to Liberia ($12.5M) - http://en.cijnews.com/?p=61273
 While attending the XVI Summit of La Francophonie in Madagascar, Prime Minister JustinTrudeau announced on Sunday, November 27, 2016 that the
Canada will provide $112.8 million for international aid projects that will benefit several African countries and Haiti. According to the official statement,
this funding will:
 “contribute to projects that aim to fight climate change, empower women, and protect their rights”
 “will be used to stimulate economic growth, which will create job opportunities for young people and women, and to counter terrorism and prevent
radicalization.”
 Source - http://en.cijnews.com/?p=62874
 Overseas funding ($3B) - https://www.libertarian.ca/wastewatch
 Re-settlement of Syrians ($245M) - http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-to-spend-245-million-to-resettle-government-assisted-
syrian-refugees/article29351512/
 Summary
 Money is spent over a period of time.

13. Liberal Party of Canada – Annual Report 2015-2016
 IndigenousAffairs - http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/liberals-left-900-million-
unspent-last-year-at-indigenous-affairs
 Feds spent $296.4-billion last year, left more than $12-billion unspent, ... it means there may be objectives
the government had that have not been met. ...TheTreasury Board tabled the 2015-16 public accounts,
which detail all federal finances, late last month. ...All you need to know about marijuana legalization
in Canada. - https://www.hilltimes.com/2016/11/07/public-accounts-reflect-296-4-billion-spending-higher-
projected-lapse/86553
 Summary
 Lapsing funds are used by government as part of their fiscal management cycle
 Liberal Comment “We are in deficit right now, Mr. Harper has put us into deficit this year,”Trudeau said Monday. “As for last year’s numbers,
we know, and we saw Mr. Harper under-spending and making cuts toVeterans Affairs, Aboriginal Affairs, to seniors, in the billions of dollars so
that he could balance the books in time for his election.” source - http://globalnews.ca/news/2222185/reality-check-trudeaus-claim-harper-
slashes-funding-to-balance-budget-falls-flat/
 Harper has $1.9 surplus when he left office - http://www.fin.gc.ca/n15/15-078-eng.asp

14. Appendix
 Contact
 Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com