Niger's agrifood system grew rapidly from 2009-2019 but lacked transformation. While GDP grew at 6.2% annually, the off-farm sector did not expand fast enough and its share of total agrifood GDP barely changed. Value chains oriented toward the domestic market drove most growth. Looking ahead, no single value chain can drive all development outcomes effectively, but jointly promoting millet, root crops, small ruminants, fisheries, and horticulture offers an approach to achieve multiple goals like reducing poverty and improving diets.

1. Niger’s Agrifood System
Structure and Drivers of Transformation
Xinshen Diao, Mia Ellis, Karl Pauw, Josee Randriamamonjy, James Thurlow, and John Ulimwengu
International Food Policy Research Institute
This diagnostic analysis was conducted by IFPRI with financial support from USAID.
July 2023

2. Four Parts to the Diagnostics
• Current structure
Where does Niger’s food system stand with respect to the implementation of the CAADP/Malabo
declaration?
• Decomposing value chains
How are different products contributing to the broader agrifood system?
• Growth and market structure
How is Niger’s agrifood system growing and transforming?
• Future drivers of inclusive agricultural transformation
Which value chains could be most effective?
2019
2009-2019
2019+

3. Summary
Niger’s agrifood system (AFS) diagnostic results
Niger’s AFS grew rapidly but lacked transformation during 2009–2019
• Off-farm components did not grow fast enough, and their share of AgDP+ barely changed over time
• AFS continues to be dominated by primary agriculture
AFS growth has been mainly driven by domestic-market-oriented value chains
• Domestic consumption patterns (and changing diets) are therefore important drivers of agricultural transformation
Looking forward, the structure of AFS growth will be crucial in driving development outcomes…
(e.g., poverty, dietary improvement, employment creation, and growth)
…but no single value chain is the most effective at driving all these development outcomes
• Root crops and millet are most effective at reducing poverty; horticulture and small ruminants are best for improving
diet quality; millet and sorghum have strong employment effects; and fisheries and millet have large growth
multiplier effects
Jointly promoting millet, root crops, small ruminants, fisheries, and horticulture would offer an effective way
to achieve multiple development outcomes

4. Framework | Agrifood Systems (AFS)
Primary agriculture
Agroprocessing
Trade and transport
Food services
Trade and transport
Input supply Demand
Consumption of own-
produced goods
Purchase of primary
agricultural goods
Purchase of processed
agrifood goods
Purchase of ready-made
foods outside of home
Imports
A
C
B
D
E
Includes agriculture, plus all upstream/downstream sectors
• Five major components (A to E)
• Same format as standard economywide datasets (e.g., national accounts)
• Allows us to measure AFS structure and performance using actual data
Agrifood System GDP (AgGDP+)
Total value added generated by all agricultural
value chains (in constant dollars)
Agrifood System Employment (AgEMP+)
Total number of workers who are primarily
employed in an agricultural value chain

5. Structure2019 | Niger’s Agrifood System Today
GDP and employment in Niger’s agrifood system (2019)
• Part 1 focuses on the current size and
structure of the national agrifood system
• Latest AgGDP+ and AgEMP+ estimates
• Decomposed into five AFS components
• Situates AFS within the broader economy
• Uses official data sources
• GDP from national accounts
• Employment from various sources (i.e., population
census, labor force surveys, ILO, etc.)
• Niger estimates indicate that
• AFS makes up more than half of GDP
($6.2 billion AgGDP+) …
• … and close to 80% of total employment
(6.7 million AgEMP+)
• Primary agriculture (A) is large, and off-farm
components (B–E) are small
(one-fifth of AgGDP+, only 10% of AgEMP+)
GDP
($ billions)
Employment
(millions of workers)
Total economy 12.0 100% 8.4 100%
Agri-food system 6.2 51.4% 6.7 79.5%
Primary agric. (A) 4.8 39.7% 6.1 72.5%
Off-farm AFS 1.4 11.7% 0.6 6.9%
Processing (B) 0.5 3.9% 0.2 2.3%
Trade & transport (C) 0.7 5.8% 0.3 3.5%
Food services (D) 0.2 1.3% 0.1 0.8%
Input supply (E) 0.1 0.7% 0.03 0.3%
Rest of economy 5.8 48.6% 1.7 20.5%

6. Structure2019 | Comparing to Other Countries
• Importance and structure of the AFS varies at different stages of development
Niger is a low-income country (LIC)
• A: Niger’s AgGDP+ share of total GDP is higher than the LIC average
• B: Niger’s primary agriculture component in AFS is 15 percentage points above the LIC average
• C: Niger’s off-farm structure of AFS is similar to the LIC average
Share of total GDP (%) Share of AFS GDP (%) Share of off-farm AFS GDP (%)
LIC = low-income countries | LMIC = lower-middle income | UMIC = upper-middle-income | HIC = high-income Source: IFPRI Agri-Food System Database
A B C
4.2
26.4
16.9
7.1
1.2
39.7
8.2
13.4
11.9
10.6
6.6
11.7
All LIC LMIC UMIC HIC Niger
Primary agriculture Off-farm AFS
34.0
66.2
58.6
40.2
15.6
77.3
66.0
33.8
41.4
59.8
84.4
22.7
All LIC LMIC UMIC HIC Niger
Primary agriculture Off-farm AFS
33.7 37.8 38.4
46.9
26.1
33.1
31.7
42.8 38.6 21.4
35.9
49.7
23.1
13.7
11.2
18.2 27.8
10.7
11.4 5.8 11.8 13.5 10.3 6.4
All LIC LMIC UMIC HIC Niger
Processing Trade and transport
Food services Input supply

7. Structure2019 | Supply vs. Demand Sides of the Agrifood System
Agrifood GDP vs. consumption
Primary, processed, and other product shares (%)
• AgGDP+ defines the AFS on the supply side
• Household demand and trade (imports) capture AFS structure on the demand side
• Agrifood processing is more important on the demand side than the supply side in the AFS
AgGDP+ Household demand
Agrifood exports vs. imports
Primary and processed product shares (%)
Exports ($0.37 bil.) Imports ($2.37 bil.)
77.3%
7.5%
15.2%
$0.32 bil.
85.8%
$0.05 bil.
14.2%
Primary agriculture
Agrifood processing
$0.41 bil.
90.1%
$0.05 bil.
9.9%
72.1%
18.7%
9.2%
Primary agriculture
Agroprocessing
Other off-farm

8. Value Chains2019 | Contributions & Trade Orientation
• Part 2 decomposes the AFS across broad value
chain groupings
• Classify value chains based on trade orientation
• Exportable value chains have above-average export-output
ratios (> 3.9%)
• Importable value chains have above-average import-demand
ratios (> 5.1%)
• Less-traded value chains make up the rest
• Domestic market dominates AgGDP+ (79.7%) – nine less-
traded value chains; relatively smaller off-farm share
(66.5%) and larger on-farm (primary) share (83.6% of
total), with horticulture and cattle being exceptions
• Two exportable value chain groups account for a relatively
small share of AgGDP+ (11.5%)
• Two importable value chains account for a
disproportionate share of off-farm AFS (21%); these value
chains compete with processed agrifood imports
Promoting some importable value chains, horticulture,
and cattle & dairy (less traded) could be effective in
driving agricultural transformation by boosting value
added and employment in off-farm AFS
Share of total GDP (%) Exports /
output
(%)
Imports /
demand
(%)
Total
AFS
Primary
agric.
Off-farm
AFS
Total 100 100 100 3.9 5.1
Exportable 11.5 13.7 3.8 29.0 9.4
Pulses 4.6 5.8 0.5 10.0 0.5
Oilseed crops 6.8 7.9 3.2 39.3 16.6
Importable 6.8 2.7 21.0 1.4 22.7
Other cereals 3.1 1.0 10.2 0.0 31.5
Other crops 3.7 1.7 10.7 2.7 14.7
Less traded 79.7 83.6 66.5 0.9 1.7
Sorghum 13.9 15.5 8.4 0.1 0.9
Millet 17.8 19.7 11.1 0.0 0.5
Root crops 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
Horticulture 3.7 1.7 10.7 2.7 14.7
Cattle 8.4 7.6 11.4 3.6 4.5
Dairy 4.2 3.8 5.5 0.0 1.9
Other livestock 8.2 9.4 4.2 0.5
Fish 3.2 3.0 3.8 0.1 2.5
Forestry 10.3 9.0 14.5
Breakdown of Niger’s agrifood system (2019)

9. Growth2009-2019 | Agrifood System Performance
• Niger’s AFS grew rapidly but lacked transformation during 2009–2019
• Shares of AFS and agriculture in total GDP barely changed
• Off-farm share of AgGDP+ remained low
• Share of agricultural employment fell modestly (75.5% to 72.5%)
• An indication of lack of structural change in the broad economy and less improvement in agricultural labor
productivity
Agricultural GDP, agrifood system GDP, and employment shares (2009–2019)
• Part 3 analyzes structural change in the AFS and the contribution of different value chains to AFS growth
40.1
50.8
21.2
75.5
39.7
51.4
22.7
72.5
Agricultural GDP share AgGDP+ share Off-farm share of AgGDP+ Agricultural employment share
Share
(%)
2009 2019

10. Growth2009-2019 | Value Chain Performance
• AgGDP+ grew rapidly during 2009–2019 (6.2%
p.a.)
• Less-traded value chains dominate AFS growth
with their large size and close to average growth
(6%), contributing near 80% of AFS growth
• Exportable value chains made an important
contribution to AFS growth with fastest total
growth (8.2%)
• Value chains with above-average AgGDP+
growth rates (*) ( > 6.2%)
• Oilseeds – exportable
• Other crops – importable
• Root crops, horticulture – less traded
• Off-farm growth was faster for fast-growing
value chains
• Processing grew faster than total off-farm components
Indicative of increased market orientation of the
AFS; associated with increased demand for
trade, transport, and processing
Value chain growth in Niger (2009-2019)
Average annual GDP growth rate (%)
Total
AFS
Primary
agric.
Off-farm
AFS
Process-
ing
Total AFS 6.2 6.0 7.0 8.0
Exportable 8.2 8.1 9.6 5.3
Oilseed crops* 10.5 10.5 10.5 5.3
Pulses 5.6 5.6 5.1
Importable 6.5 4.4 7.5 8.4
Other cereals 5.8 3.5 6.7 7.3
Other crops* 7.0 5.0 8.3 9.4
Less traded 6.0 5.8 6.9 8.3
Sorghum 5.1 5.2 4.3 3.3
Millet 5.2 5.0 6.6 2.1
Root crops* 7.3 7.6 8.3
Horticulture* 9.3 9.5 8.4 7.3
Cattle 4.5 4.0 5.8 4.6
Dairy 4.5 3.1 9.1 10.7
Other livestock 4.3 4.3 4.3
Fish 5.5 4.5 8.6 13.5

11. Future Drivers2019+ | Modeling Faster Growth
• IFPRI’s RIAPA model is used to analyze different sources of agricultural growth
• Expand production in different value chains
• Increase on-farm productivity growth rates in targeted value chains
• Achieve same overall growth in agriculture GDP (e.g., 1.0%)
• Track linkage effect within value chain and spillover effects to other value chains
• Assess outcomes
• Poverty – Poverty-growth elasticity in percentage points based on $2.15-a-day
• Hunger – Hunger-growth elasticity in percentage points based on prevalence of undernourishment
• Diet – Diet quality to growth elasticity in % derived from Reference Diet Deprivation index (REDD)
• Jobs – Employment multiplier in thousand employed persons associated with US$1 million growth in targeted value chain
• GDP – GDP growth multiplier in US$ millions associated with US$! million growth in targeted value chain
• Average across outcomes
• The value of outcome indicators (elasticity or multiplier) is expected to differ across value chain growth; not all value chains are
equally effective at achieving all outcomes
• Normalizing the individual outcome scores
• The values of each outcome indicator are scaled so that the most effective value chain is given a score of one and the leasteffective is given a
score of zero. A value chain with adverse impact is also given a score of zero.
• An average score with equal weights is used to measure the total impacts across all value chains

12. Individual outcomes
(given unit change in agricultural GDP, ordered by poverty)
Future Drivers2019+ | Outcomes of Agricultural Growth
Average across outcomes
(average from the normalized scores, reordered)
1.30
1.45
1.37
1.14
1.31
1.71
1.05
1.15
1.07
0.96
1.19
-0.44
1.65
0.36
0.19
-0.13
-0.13
-0.01
0.31
0.00
0.28
-0.22
-0.13
-0.10
-0.08
0.85
0.87
0.63
0.59
0.07
0.43
0.10
-0.07
-0.30
-0.15
-0.23
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.00
-0.09
0.00
-0.11
-0.05
-1.77
-1.12
-0.63
-0.56
-0.46
-0.42
-0.41
-0.39
-0.37
-0.30
-0.16
Root crops
Millet
Sorghum
Small ruminants
Horticulture
Fish
Dairy
Pulses
Poultry
Oilseeds
Cattle
Poverty
(change in %-point)
Hunger
(change in %-point)
Diet quality
(change in %)
Jobs
(change in mil.)
GDP
(change in bil. $)
0.56
0.48
0.44
0.41
0.36
0.31
0.25
0.24
0.21
0.17
0.08
Millet
Fish
Small ruminants
Horticulture
Root crops
Sorghum
Dairy
Pulses
Poultry
Oilseeds
Cattle
Total
Millet
Fish
Small ruminants
Horticulture
Root crops
Sorghum
Dairy
Pulses
Poultry
Oilseeds
Cattle
Poverty Growth Jobs Diets

13. Future Drivers2019+ | Key Messages
AFS growth is pro-poor
• Growth led by all value chains reduces poverty, but root crops and millet are most effective
AFS growth is effective in improving food security (hunger) and diet quality
• Most value chains reduce hunger; root crops, sorghum, and millet are most effective
• Most value chains improve diet quality; horticulture, small ruminants, fish, and dairy are more effective
Agricultural growth creates jobs but not necessarily on-farm
• All value chains are associated with an increase in total employment, but most AFS jobs are created off-farm
• Millet, sorghum, oilseeds, and pluses are the most effective value chains in creating jobs in the overall economy and within the
AFS
Agricultural growth has strong growth multiplier effects that generate income beyond agriculture
• Fish, millet, sorghum, and horticulture value chains have stronger multiplier effects for both AFS income and total GDP growth
In conclusion, promoting multiple value chains can achieve broad impact
• No single value chain group is most effective in achieving all the development outcomes we consider
• Millet, fish, small ruminants, and horticulture value chains rank highly in the combined outcome scores for poverty, diet, jobs,
and GDP
• Promoting these value chains would offer an effective way to achieve broad-based outcomes

14. Note: Value Chain Groups and Agricultural Sectors in Individual
VC Groups
Value chain group and their
share of AgGDP+
Individual products and their share of group’s agriculture GDP
Sorghum (13.9%) Sorghum 100%
Millet (17.9%) Millet 100%
Other cereals (3.1%) Maize 31.4% | Rice 68.6%
Oilseeds (6.8%) Groundnuts 61.1% | Sesame and other oilseeds 38.9%
Pulses (4.6%) Pulses 100%
Roots (0.9%) Cassava 34.2% | Irish potatoes 56.6% | Sweet potatoes 9.2%
Horticulture (12.8%) Leafy green vegetables 27.6% | Other vegetables 44.2% | Fruits 28.2%
Other crops (3.7%) Sugarcane 45.7% | Cotton 17.5% | Other crops 36.8%
Cattle (8.4%) Cattle meat 100%
Dairy (4.2%) Raw milk 100%
Other livestock (8.2%) Poultry meat 18% | Eggs 1.8% | Small ruminants 61.3% | Other livestock 18.8%
Fish (3.2%) Capture fish 100%
Forestry (10.3%) Forestry 100%