Rui Benfica, Xinshen Diao, Mia Ellis, Karl Pauw, and James Thurlow International Food Policy Research Institute

1. Mozambique’s Agrifood System
Structure and Drivers of Transformation
Rui Benfica, Xinshen Diao, Mia Ellis, Karl Pauw, and James Thurlow
International Food Policy Research Institute
This diagnostic analysis was conducted by IFPRI with financial support from USAID.
July 2023

2. Four Parts to the Diagnostics
• Current structure
What does Mozambique’s food system look like today?
• Decomposing value chains
How are different products contributing to the broader agrifood system?
• Growth and market structure
How is Mozambique’s agrifood system growing and transforming?
• Future drivers of inclusive agricultural transformation
Which value chains could be most effective?
2019
2009-2019
2019+

3. Summary
Mozambique’s agrifood system (AFS) diagnostic results
Mozambique’s AFS has been transforming
• Off-farm AFS GDP grew more rapidly than primary agriculture GDP
• However, in value terms, the share of agricultural GDP in the AFS GDP is still double that of the off-farm components
AFS growth has been driven by value chains oriented toward both the domestic market and for export
• Exportable value chains had the highest growth rate, contributing the most to AFS growth
• Less-traded value chains had a large contribution to AFS growth due to their large size in AFS
Looking forward, the structure of AFS growth will be crucial in driving development outcomes…
(e.g., poverty, dietary improvement, employment creation, and growth)
…but no single value chain is the most effective at driving all these development outcomes
• Maize and fish are most effective at reducing poverty; horticulture is best for improving diet quality; livestock has strong
employment effects; and maize has large growth multiplier effects
 Jointly promoting maize, fish, livestock, and horticulture would offer an effective way to achieve multiple development
outcomes c

4. Framework | Agrifood Systems (AFS)
Primary agriculture
Agroprocessing
Trade and transport
Food services
Trade and transport
Input supply Demand
Consumption of own-
produced goods
Purchase of primary
agricultural goods
Purchase of processed
agrifood goods
Purchase of ready-made
foods outside of home
Imports
A
C
B
D
E
Includes agriculture, plus all upstream/downstream sectors
• Five major components (A to E)
• Same format as standard economywide datasets (e.g., national accounts)
• Allows us to measure AFS structure and performance using actual data
Agrifood System GDP (AgGDP+)
Total value added generated by all agricultural
value chains (in constant dollars)
Agrifood System Employment (AgEMP+)
Total number of workers who are primarily
employed in an agricultural value chain

5. Structure2019 | Mozambique’s Agrifood System Today
GDP and employment in Mozambique’s agrifood system (2019)
• Part 1 focuses on the current size and
structure of the national agrifood system
• Latest AgGDP+ and AgEMP+ estimates
• Decomposed into five AFS components
• Situates AFS within the broader economy
• Uses official data sources
• GDP from national accounts
• Employment from various sources (i.e., population
census, labor force surveys, ILO, etc.)
• Mozambique estimates indicate that
• AFS makes up 40% of GDP
($5.4 billion AgGDP+) …
• … and more than three-quarters of total
employment
(9.9 million AgEMP+)
• Primary agriculture (A) is large, but off-farm
components (B–E) are also important
(one-third of AgGDP+, one-tenth of AgEMP+)
GDP
($ billions)
Employment
(millions of workers)
Total economy 13.7 100% 12.8 100%
Agrifood system 5.4 39.4% 9.9 77.6%
Primary agric. (A) 3.7 27.2% 9.0 70.2%
Off-farm AFS 1.7 12.2% 0.9 7.4%
Processing (B) 0.5 3.4% 0.3 2.2%
Trade & transport (C) 0.8 5.7% 0.6 4.5%
Food services (D) 0.2 1.8% 0.1 0.5%
Input supply (E) 0.2 1.3% 0.0 0.3%
Rest of economy 8.3 60.6% 2.9 22.4%

6. Structure2019 | Comparing to Other Countries
• Importance and structure of the AFS varies at different stages of development
Mozambique is a low-income country (LIC)
• A: Mozambique’s AgGDP+ share of total GDP is close to the LIC average
• B: Mozambique’s primary agriculture component in AFS GDP is larger than the LIC average
• C: Mozambique’s agro-processing is smaller than expected, while trade and transport is larger
Share of total GDP (%) Share of AFS GDP (%) Share of off-farm AFS GDP (%)
LIC = low-income countries | LMIC = lower-middle income | UMIC = upper-middle-income | HIC = high-income Source: IFPRI Agri-Food System Database
A B C
4.2
26.4
16.9
7.1
1.2
27.2
8.2
13.4
11.9
10.6
6.6
12.2
All LIC LMIC UMIC HIC Mozambique
Primary agriculture Off-farm AFS
34.0
66.2
58.6
40.2
15.6
69.1
66.0
33.8
41.4
59.8
84.4
30.9
All LIC LMIC UMIC HIC Mozambique
Primary agriculture Off-farm AFS
33.7 37.8 38.4
46.9
26.1 28.0
31.7
42.8 38.6 21.4
35.9
46.9
23.1
13.7
11.2
18.2 27.8
14.7
11.4 5.8 11.8 13.5 10.3 10.3
All LIC LMIC UMIC HIC Mozambique
Processing Trade and transport Food services Input supply

7. Structure2019 | Supply vs. Demand Sides of the Agrifood System
Agrifood GDP vs. consumption
Primary, processed, and other product shares (%)
• AgGDP+ defines the AFS on the supply side
• Household demand and trade (imports) capture AFS structure on the demand side
• Agrifood processing is more important on the demand side than the supply side in the AFS
AgGDP+ Household demand
Agrifood exports vs. imports
Primary and processed product shares (%)
Exports ($1.08 bil.) Imports ($0.71 bil.)
69.1%
8.7%
22.2%
$0.43 bil.
40.1%
$0.65 bil.
59.9%
Primary agriculture
Agrifood processing
$0.54 bil.
75.5%
$0.17 bil.
24.5%
64.6%
28.7%
6.7%
Primary agriculture
Agroprocessing
Other off-farm

8. Value Chains2019 | Contributions & Trade Orientation
• Part 2 decomposes the AFS across broad value
chain groupings
• Classify value chains based on trade orientation
• Exportable value chains have above-average export-output
ratios ( > 11.6%)
• Importable value chains have above-average import-
demand ratios (> 7.9%)
• Less-traded value chains make up the rest
• Strong comparative advantage in exports – six
exportable value chains; similar on-farm and off-
farm shares of GDP (45.2% and 43.2% of total
respectively)
• Five less-trade value chains dominate primary
agriculture (52.8%); they have large share of AFS
GDP (48.9%) and relatively small off-farm share
(37.1%), with livestock an exception
Promoting exportable value chains and livestock
(less-traded) could be effective in driving agricultural
transformation by boosting value added and
employment in off-farm AFS
Share of total GDP (%) Exports /
output
(%)
Imports /
demand
(%)
Total
AFS
Primary
agric.
Off-farm
AFS
Total 100 100 100 11.6 7.9
Exportable 43.8 43.2 45.2 24.4 5.6
Pulses 7.1 9.3 2.1 13.3 0.6
Oilseeds 5.6 4.8 7.3 34.5 3.2
Fruits & nuts 6.2 7.5 3.2 34.5 4.7
Tobacco 8.0 9.3 5.1 26.6
Other crops 9.3 7.3 13.6 19.4 11.3
Forestry 7.7 4.9 13.9 23.6 5.4
Importable 4.2 4.0 4.6 40.0
Other cereals 4.2 4.0 4.6 40.0
Less traded 47.9 52.8 37.1 1.1 2.7
Maize 10.4 11.3 8.4 3.3
Root crops 10.3 11.6 7.3 1.7
Vegetables 13.4 17.1 5.2 0.6 1.8
Livestock 8.1 7.0 10.6 0.1 5.4
Fish 5.7 5.8 5.6 6.9 0.6
Breakdown of Mozambique’s agrifood system (2019)

9. Growth2009-2019 | Agrifood System Performance
Mozambique’s AFS has been transforming
• Agricultural share of total GDP fell between 2009 and 2019 (31.3% to 27.2%)
• Off-farm grew more rapidly than primary agriculture GDP and its share of AFS GDP rose over time
Agricultural employment share fell modestly (77% to 70%)
• Agriculture is still the largest sector for employment
Agricultural GDP, agrifood system GDP, and employment shares (2009–2019)
• Part 3 analyzes structural change in the AFS and the contribution of different value chains to AFS growth
31.3
42.7
26.7
77.1
27.2
39.4
30.9
70.2
Agricultural GDP share AgGDP+ share Off-farm share of AgGDP+ Agricultural employment
share
Share
(%)
2009 2019

10. Growth2009-2019 | Value Chain Performance
• Modest AgGDP+ growth (3.8% p.a.) during 2009–
2019 compared with national GDP growth of
5.3%
• Most value chains with fast AgGDP+ growth rates
(*) ( > 5%) are in exportable group
• Exportable value chains grew fastest (4.9%),
accounting for more than half of total AFS growth
• Less-traded value chains made an important
contribution to AFS growth because of their large
size; their total growth was below AFS average
(3%)
• AgGDP+ growth driven by strong growth in off-
farm AFS (5.4%), including processing (7.2%)
• Most value chains, not only fast-growing ones,
experienced faster off-farm growth
Indicative of increased market orientation of the
AFS; associated with increased demand for trade,
transport, and processing
Value chain growth in Mozambique (2009-2019)
Average annual GDP growth rate (%)
Total
AFS
Primary
agric.
Off-farm
AFS
Process-
ing
Total AFS 3.8 3.2 5.4 7.2
Exportable 4.9 4.3 6.2 8.8
Oilseeds* 5.9 5.0 7.4 6.4
Pulses 3.2 3.1 4.0
Fruits and nuts* 5.3 4.9 7.4 1.0
Tobacco* 7.6 7.7 7.1 6.1
Other crops 3.9 2.1 6.6 10.5
Forestry 4.3 3.4 5.0 9.3
Importable 2.3 1.1 5.1 2.1
Other cereals 2.3 1.1 5.1 2.1
Less traded 3.0 2.6 4.1 4.1
Maize 1.9 1.5 3.1 3.0
Root crops 1.1 1.0 1.6 -2.6
Vegetables 3.3 3.2 4.8 6.2
Livestock 4.3 3.4 5.7 6.1
Fish* 6.9 7.2 6.2 5.5

11. Future Drivers2019+ | Modeling Faster Growth
• IFPRI’s RIAPA model is used to analyze different sources of agricultural growth
• Expand production in different value chains
• Increase on-farm productivity growth rates in targeted value chains
• Achieve same overall growth in agriculture GDP (e.g., 1.0%)
• Track linkage effect within value chain and spillover effects to other value chains
• Assess outcomes
• Poverty – Poverty-growth elasticity in percentage points based on $2.15-a-day
• Hunger – Hunger-growth elasticity in percentage points based on prevalence of undernourishment
• Diet – Diet quality to growth elasticity in % derived from Reference Diet Deprivation index (REDD)
• Jobs – Employment multiplier in thousand employed persons associated with US$1 million growth in targeted value chain
• GDP – GDP growth multiplier in US$ millions associated with US$1 million growth in targeted value chain
• Average across outcomes
• The value of outcome indicators (elasticity or multiplier) is expected to differ across value chain growth; not all value chains are
equally effective at achieving all outcomes
• Normalizing the individual outcome scores
• The values of each outcome indicator are scaled so that the most effective value chain is given a score of one and the leasteffective is given a
score of zero. A value chain with adverse impact is also given a score of zero.
• An average score with equal weights is used to measure the total impacts across all value chains

12. Individual outcomes
(per unit change in agriculture GDP, ordered by poverty outcome)
Future Drivers2019+ | Prioritizing Agricultural Growth
Poverty
(change in %-point)
Hunger
(change in %-point)
Jobs
(change in 1,000)
Diet quality
(change in %)
Average across outcomes
(averaged normalized scores, reordered)
GDP
(change in mil. $)
3.99
1.74
0.55
0.25
1.62
1.13
-0.38
1.99
0.49
1.99
Maize
Fish
Fruits & nuts
Tobacco
Vegetables
Pulses
Oilseeds
Root crops
Sugar
Livestock
7.43
-0.04
0.74
1.73
2.87
1.59
0.10
2.12
1.92
9.99
Maize
Fish
Fruits & nuts
Tobacco
Vegetables
Pulses
Oilseeds
Root crops
Sugar
Livestock
0.05
0.57
0.61
-0.02
0.58
0.19
-0.06
-0.09
-0.04
0.37
Maize
Fish
Fruits & nuts
Tobacco
Vegetables
Pulses
Oilseeds
Root crops
Sugar
Livestock
-1.41
-0.27
-0.07
-0.04
0.00
-0.23
0.01
-0.18
-0.05
0.11
-0.85
-0.79
-0.25
-0.15
-0.08
-0.07
-0.05
-0.01
0.01
0.02
Maize
Fish
Fruits & nuts
Tobacco
Vegetables
Pulses
Oilseeds
Root crops
Sugar
Livestock
0.74
0.59
0.55
0.46
0.35
0.25
0.20
0.09
0.05
0.02
Maize
Fish
Livestock
Vegetables
Fruits & nuts
Pulses
Root crops
Tobacco
Sugar
Oilseeds
Total
Maize
Fish
Livestock
Vegetables
Fruits & nuts
Pulses
Root crops
Tobacco
Sugar
Oilseeds
Poverty Growth Jobs Diets

13. Future Drivers2019+ | Key Messages
AFS growth is pro-poor
• Growth led by most value chains reduces poverty, but maize and fisheries are most effective
AFS growth is effective in improving food security (hunger) and diet quality
• Most value chains reduce hunger; maize and fisheries are most effective
• Most value chains improve diet quality; horticulture and fisheries are most effective
Agricultural growth creates jobs but not necessarily on-farm
• All value chains are associated with an increase in total employment, but most AFS jobs are created off-farm
• Livestock is the most effective value chain in creating jobs in the overall economy
Agricultural growth has a strong growth multiplier effect generating income beyond agriculture
• Maize, root crops, livestock, and fisheries have stronger growth multiplier effects for AFS income or total GDP
In conclusion, promoting multiple value chains can achieve broad impact
• No single value chain group is the most effective in achieving all the development outcomes we consider
• Maize, livestock, fishery, and vegetable value chains rank highly in the combined outcome scores for poverty, diet, jobs, and
growth
• Livestock and fisheries are currently small value chains but with high potential for growth. Promoting them together with
horticulture and maize would offer an effective way to achieve broad-based outcomes

14. Note: Value Chain Groups and Agricultural Sectors in Individual
VC Groups
Value chain group and their share
of AgGDP+
Individual products and their share of group’s agriculture GDP
Maize (10.4%) Maize 100%
Other cereals (4.2%) Sorghum & millet 43.2% | Rice 54.2% | Wheat & barley 2.6%
Oilseeds (5.6%) Groundnuts 63.0% | Other oilseeds 37.0%
Pulses (7.1%) Pulses 100%
Roots (10.3%) Cassava 69.7% | Irish potatoes 12.3% | Sweet potatoes 16.5% | Other roots 1.4%
Vegetables (13.4%) Vegetables 100%
Fruits and nuts (6.2%) Nuts 30.9%| Bananas 18.3% | Other fruits 50.8%
Tobacco (8.0%) Tobacco 100%
Other crops (9.3%) Sugarcane 81.5% | Cotton & fibers 18.3% | Tea 0.2%
Livestock (8.1%)
Cattle meat 28.5% | Raw milk 3.5% | Poultry meat 30.2% | Eggs 5.7% | Small ruminants
1.5% | Other livestock 20.5%
Fish (5.7%) Aquaculture 0.6% | Capture fisheries 99.4%
Forestry (7.7%) Forestry 100%