Statistics and the state. History and the future

1. Statistics and the state
History and the future
Nordic Statistical Meeting
Bergen 14 August 2013
Ari Tyrkkö / Statistics Finland

2. Contents
 Statistics and the state – history and future
 1. Founding of the Statistical Office
National awakening – the first 50 years
 2. Birth of the state and independency
The Wars and time between – the next 30 years
Between the War and the EU – the 50 years
EU and Monetary Union – the last 20 years
 3. Future
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3. Concepts
 State, nation, public administration
 Statistics, Statistical Office, Statistical Service
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4. Founding of the Statistical Office
 Russian period 1809 - 1918
 Autonomous Grand Duchy: national laws, national
administration (Swedish and Finnish language)
 National awakening
 National currency – Finnish Mark 1860
 Official status for the Finnish language 1863
 National epic – Kalevala 1835
 Statistical Office 1865
 (Denmark 1850, Sweden 1858, Norway 1878, Island
1944)
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5. Statistical Office during the Russian period
1865 - 1908
 Development of the Statistical Office and the statistical
service was based on national (= Finnish) policy needs
 Main fields of statistics:
Population statistics Number of population
Morals, civilization
Agriculture Production
Industrialisation and Industrial production
Traffic Channels, railroads
Foreign trade Exports, customs
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6. Statistical Office during the Russian period
1865 - 1908
 Methodology
 Main source for the statistics were administrative
records
 Forerunners of national statistics were also forerunners of
national policies
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7. Independency – The wars and the time between
1917 -1945
 Declaration of independency (1917) did not bring any major
changes to the Statistical Office
 Changing policy needs
 Wounds of the civil war
 Depression and employment
 War time economy and social policy
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8. Independency – The wars and the time between
1917 -1945
Major needs of policy
 Social policy:
 Living conditions of employees
 Prohibition
 Organised crime
 Language policy
 Economic policy
 Depression
 Unemployment
 High rate of inflation
 Controlled economy
Statistics
 Living Condition Surveys
 Statistics on Crime and Justice
 Regular statistics on income and
wealth (taxpayers)
 Short term economic statistics
 Wage statistics
 Price statistics and indexes
 Public finances
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9. Independency – Between the war and the EU
1945 -1995
 The first decade
 Controlled economy: Imports, wages, prices, pensions
 420 000 evacuated people (12 % of population)
 War reparations to the Soviet Union (300 mill. US$,
2 – 5 % of the GDP)
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10. Independency – Between the war and the EU
1945 - 1995
The first decade
Major needs of policy
 Social policy:
 Inhabitation
 Economic policy
 Controlled economy
 War reparations
Statistics
 Demographic statistics
(Population Register)
 Population and Housing Census
 Living Conditions Index
 Household Budget Surveys
 National Accounts
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11. Independency – Between the war and the EU
1945 -1995
 The next four decades
 Development of the welfare state
 Development of public administration planning and
budgeting – Register Society
 New fields of policies: environment, gender
 Changing society: consumption, free time, services,
migration, education, immaterial items
 International co-operation, benchmarking, harmonisation,
initiatives for new statistics
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12. Independency – Between the war and the EU
1945 - 1995
The next four decades
Major policy needs
• Development of the Welfare State
• New fields of policies
• Changing society
Statistics
 Income Distribution Statistics
 Living Condition Surveys
 Time use, culture
 Health
 Environmental Statistics
 Gender Statistics
 Statistics on services
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13. Independency – EU an Monetary Union
1995 -
 Joining the European Union
 Regulation at the EU-level
 Closer link with the administration and the statistics
 Initiatives from abroad
 Joining the Monetary Union
 Common monetary policy
 Excessive Deficit Procedure
 Direct link with statistical indicators and policy goals:
public sector depth and deficit, rate of inflation
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14. Independency – EU and the Monetary Union
1995 -
Major policy needs
• EU budget, structural funds, transfers
• Common Markets
• Common Monetary Policy
• Excessive deficit procedure
• Comparisons with other major
economic areas
• Changes due to the financial crisis
Statistics
 National Accounts
 Statistics on Agriculture
 Intrastat, Extrastat
 Harmonised CPI
 Statistics on money, banking and
finance
 Public finance
 Principal European Economic
Indicators
 Sector Accounts
 MIP
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15. Future
 Challenges at the national level:
 Budget cuts, earmarking, closer link to the strategic goals
of the government
 Challenges at the EU-level:
 Enlarged regulation, enhanced governance, tighter links
with statistical indicators and policy goals, new modes of
co-operation and partnership, quality and trust, political
stress, etc
 Challenges at the global level:
 Globalisation, Big Data, new initiatives: Stiglitz, growing
activity of international organisations, etc, etc
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16. Future
Major policy needs
 Local level
 EU-level
 Global level
Statistics
 Development tied to political goals
 Organisation of statistical service
 Municipal Statistics
 Micro-simulation model
 Regulation, governance, indicators
 ESS-VIP, Centres of Excellence
 Open data, exchange of micro level data
 Simstat
 Globalisation
 Global value chains, migration, labour
markets, financial markets, trade
 Big Data
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17. Future
 The Question:
Are we able to meet our future challenges with the
principles and methods that were developed for the past
or
Are we bound to take a completely new direction to our
work?
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