Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Estonia and European Debt Crisis

529 views

Published on

kaido's presentation @ MI Finland Consultants Meeting

Published in: Business
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Estonia and European Debt Crisis

  1. 1. Estonia and the European Debt Crisis kaido vestberg MI Finland Consultants Meeting June 26th, 2015 Tallink SPA Conference Hotel Tallinn
  2. 2. Economical crises tend to have Wshape - CHW 1998
  3. 3. Real GDP Growth Rate – Volume / Eurostat -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Estonia Finland EU (28) Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the economic activity, defined as the value of all goods and services produced less the value of any goods or services used in their creation. The calculation of the annual growth rate of GDP volume is intended to allow comparisons of the dynamics of economic development both over time and between economies of different sizes. For measuring the growth rate of GDP in terms of volumes, the GDP at current prices are valued in the prices of the previous year and the thus computed volume changes are imposed on the level of a reference year; this is called a chain-linked series. Accordingly, price movements will not inflate the growth rate.
  4. 4. Real GDP Growth Rate – Volume / Eurostat -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Estonia Finland EU (28) Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the economic activity, defined as the value of all goods and services produced less the value of any goods or services used in their creation. The calculation of the annual growth rate of GDP volume is intended to allow comparisons of the dynamics of economic development both over time and between economies of different sizes. For measuring the growth rate of GDP in terms of volumes, the GDP at current prices are valued in the prices of the previous year and the thus computed volume changes are imposed on the level of a reference year; this is called a chain-linked series. Accordingly, price movements will not inflate the growth rate.
  5. 5. We had clear objectives to reach 
  6. 6. New York Times columnist / the Nobel-winning economist Paul Krugman: „poster child for austerity defenders“ Estonian president hammers Paul Krugman on Twitter, Washington Post June 7, 2012 Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves: „smug, overbearing & patronizing“
  7. 7. John Maynard Keynes 1883 - 1946 Milton Friedman 1912 - 2006
  8. 8. Austerity or not?
  9. 9. Keynesian Finland? http://www.tradingeconomics.com/finland/government-budget
  10. 10. General government debt, 2013 and 2014 (¹) (general government consolidated gross debt, % of GDP)
  11. 11. Estonia had the EU's worst year for unemployment, which rose from 3.9% in May 2008 to 15.6% in May 2009.
  12. 12. The same liberal democratic party Reformierakond in the government last 15 years
  13. 13. We are close to the top 2007 year, but economy is different today • Less investments (30%-98%), today reached 60% level • Household has decreased 22%, today 11% • Governmnet expenditure decreased only 6% • During the crises import has decreased 40% and export 20%, now export is 30% and import 10% higher compared to year 2007 https://mlauri.wordpress.com/2013/09/18/kuidas-kriis-majandust-muutis/
  14. 14. During last 10 years export has grown more than 4 times
  15. 15. Structural changes Decreased sectors • Construction – 20% • Trading and logistics – 22% • Finance – 30% Increased sectors • Industry +9% • ICT +12.5% • Real estate • Public sector https://mlauri.wordpress.com/2013/09/18/kuidas-kriis-majandust-muutis/
  16. 16. „Estonia only managed to overcome the serious 2007-2009 crisis thanks to well-timed funds from the EU“
  17. 17. EU net budget transfers – paid and received 2004-2012 (bn EUR) http://www.lza.lv/images/Baltic/Varblane.pdf
  18. 18. What got us here won’t take us there We need paradigm shift

×