This is a resume of my master’s degree thesis where I made a Na-tech which one of the purposes was found the best technique to use in the new generation hydrogen pipelines to face an earthquake.
For further information and contributions don’t hesitate to contact me.
2. Introduction
The Hydrogen transport by pipelines is more reliable
and efficient than transport in pressure tanks.
As we can see from the graph hydrogen has low
energy per volume unit, instead of the energy per
mass unit which, has highs values, which means that
if we choose the batch method, we transport less
energy.
V!!,#$ ≈ 38 𝑙𝑡 per 1 kg!!
@ 300 𝑏𝑎𝑟
3. Introduction
Pure H2 Transport: Newly Built Pipeline
Materials Criticality
Steel(C<0,2) Hydrogen Embrittlement
HDPE P Operating
Transport of H2 mixed with Natural Gas
Existing Natural Gas Pipeline
Concentration Limits by weight of H2 in the gas mixture
4. Work’s Objectives
Construction of fragility curves and estimation of the probability of damage caused by earthquakes in
hydrogen pipelines.
Component under
analysis
Material Seismic data Place
Hydrogen Pipeline Steel and HDPE Hazard curves in PGA
and PGV
Bavaria, Sicily and
Maastricht
Combined analysis betwen Seismic Geology Industrial Engineering
PSHA data collection and subsequent application to Na-tech Risk in the specific case of hydrogen
pipelines.
Approach:
5. Design and construction
Models Input Example
Mathematical Models of Optimization Production Sites
Storage Sites
Transport
Economic aspects
MILP/MINLP
Space GIS
Based on transition scenarios GAMS
Methods for Network Design
TECHNIQUES FOR THE INSTALLATION OF HYDROGEN PIPELINES
BURIED ON THE SURFACE
-Used in rural or uninhabited areas
-Requires the use of pipe supports
-Requirements for the surface of the soil
hollow opening NO-DIG methods
6. Na-tech seismic risk
Dynamic geotechnical effects
The seismic performance of the pipeline
depends on the form of deformation of the
soil, it can be transient or permanent.
Deformation types Seismic parameters
Strong Ground Shaking
(SGS)
Peak Ground Velocity
(PGV)
Ground Failure
(GF)
Peak Ground Acceleration
(PGA)
Seismic fragility
Probability to have damage if the
earthquake demand D in terms of IM is
greater than the capacity of the element.
It's a cumulative distribution function.
Fragility = f [D ⩾ C| IM]
Empirical
correlations
Repair
Rate
RR = a × IMb [n° repairs/km]
Fragility
(HAZUS)
𝑃 𝑁 = 𝑛 = 𝑒!""∗$
∗
(""∗$)!
'!
Pf= 1 − 𝑃 𝑁 = 0 =
1 − 𝑒!""∗$
a and b are parameters defined on the basis of a regressive analysis of the damage
data on the available underground pipelines.
7. State Hazard Consequence (Structural Damage)
DS0 Low Negligible damage; pipe bending
DS1
Significa
nt
Longitudinal and circumferential ruptures;
joints compression.
DS2
High Breaks for CPs; Loss of joints in pipelines.
Stato Hazard Patterns (loss of containment)
RS0 Null No loss
RS1
Low Very limited losses:
Toxic (D < 1 mm/m)
-Inflammable (D < 10 mm/m)
RS2 High Not negligible losses
Risk Status (RS):
Seismic vulnerability models of hydrogen pipelines
Damage Status (DS)
It is related to the
release of dangerous
content.
Pipelines Material Joints Mode of
damage
Continuo
(CP)
Steel(C<0,2)
Polyethylene
(HDPE)
Welded;
Mechanical;
Special.
Tension cracks;
Compression
cracks
Local buckling;
Beam buckling.
Segmented
(SP)
PVC, Vitrified,
Sand, Cast Iron
Mechanical,
Welded
Torsion or
breaking
Structural Aspects of H2 Pipelines
8. Seismic parameter and Probability of damage
Types of Installation of the
Pipeline
IM to use Motivation
Buried Peak Ground Velocity(PGV)
Related to the longitudinal tension of
the soil.
Above ground Peak Ground Acceleration(PGA)
Related to the inertial response of
the pipe.
Probability of damage
Is the cumulative Probability of damage or loss of
the content given by the combination of the
function of vulnerability (fragility) and the danger
function seismic h(IM) in a specific pipeline.
𝑃 𝑅𝑆 ≥ 𝑅𝑆! 𝐼𝑀 = ∫
"#
𝑃 𝑅𝑆 ≥ 𝑅𝑆! 𝐼𝑀 . ℎ(𝐼𝑀)𝑑𝐼𝑀
The Fragility Curves express the fragility of each
component compared to the seismic intensity
parameter
Fragility
𝑃 𝐷𝑆 ≥ 𝐷𝑆! 𝑜𝑟 𝑅𝑆 ≥ 𝑅𝑆! =
1
2
1 + 𝑒𝑟𝑓
ln 𝐼𝑀 − ln 𝜇
𝛽 2
9. The Repair Rate is an indicator of pipeline performance that derives from a fetting of post-earthquake data present in
the literature.
Fragility curve in RR
Relation Reference Validity
RR=K1(0,00187).PGV
ALA(2001)
K1=0,6 Acciaio
K1=0,5 HDPE
RR=(PGV/50)2,67
O’Rourke and Ayala
(1993)
HDPE e Ghisa
RR=2,88x10-6
x(PGA-
100)1,97
Isoyama et al. (2000) Tubature fatte in
Ghisa
Empirical Relationships of Fragility
Hazard curves and calculation procedure
1,00E-05
1,00E-04
1,00E-03
1,00E-02
1,00E-01
1,00E+00
0,00E+00 2,00E+01 4,00E+01 6,00E+01 8,00E+01 1,00E+02 1,20E+02
RR/km
di
distanza
PGV(cm/s)
Repair rate
HDPE buried Steel buried
10. Hazard curves and calculation procedure
0,00E+00
5,00E-02
1,00E-01
1,50E-01
2,00E-01
2,50E-01
3,00E-01
0,0E+002,0E+014,0E+016,0E+018,0E+011,0E+02
Probabilità
PGV(cm/s)
Hazard curves express the probability or
frequency of Excess (EP) of a given
seismic intensity value in a period of time
Y.
2- Fragility curve
1-Hazard curve
The probability of damage is given by the
combination of the function of fragility
with the Seismic Hazard Function h(IM)
3-Probability of damage
Lanzano et al. (2013)
Seismic Risk Analysis is a combination of three factors which are: seismic risk, exposure to seismic risk and
fragility.
Structural
aspects
Class Fragility
Risk state, RS μ (cm/s) β
CP ≥ RS1 37,21 0.29
CP = RS2 63,25 0,12
11. Case study 1: Bavaria (Germany)
0,00E+00
5,00E-02
1,00E-01
1,50E-01
2,00E-01
2,50E-01
3,00E-01
0,0E+00
2,0E+01
4,0E+01
6,0E+01
8,0E+01
1,0E+02
Probabilità
PGV(cm/s)
Prob. of damage
PP buried RS=RS2
4,00E-02
4,00E-01
1,00E-02 1,00E-01 1,00E+00 1,00E+01 1,00E+02
Probability
of
exceedance(1/y)
PGV(cm/s)
HAZARD CURVE
0,00E+00
2,00E-06
4,00E-06
6,00E-06
8,00E-06
1,00E-05
1,20E-05
1,40E-05
1,60E-05
6,00E+00
2,60E+01
4,60E+01
6,60E+01
8,60E+01
1,06E+02
Probabilità
PGV(cm/s)
Prob. of damage
PP buried RS>=RS1
Probability of damage
12. Probability of damage
Case study 1: Bavaria (Germany)
1,00E-06
1,00E-05
1,00E-04
1,00E-03
1,00E-02
1,00E-01
1,00E+00
0,0009
0,001
0,002
0,003
0,004
0,005
0,007
0,0098
0,0137
0,0192
0,0269
0,0376
0,0527
0,0738
0,103
0,145
0,203
0,284
0,397
0,556
0,778
Exceedance
Probability
1
y
PGA(cm/s^2)
Hazard curve
0,00E+00
2,00E-05
4,00E-05
6,00E-05
8,00E-05
1,00E-04
1,20E-04
1,40E-04
0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5
Probabilità
PGA(m/s^2)
Probability of Damage Above Ground
Steel Pipeline(WS, SGS, CP)
RS>=RS1
RS=RS2
13. Case study 2: Maastricht (Netherlands)
0,0001
0,001
0,01
0,1
1
0,001 0,01 0,1 1 10
Exceedance
Probability
(1y)
g
Hazard Curve
0,0001
0,0006
0,0011
0,0016
0,0021
0,0026
0,0031
0,0036
0,0041
0 1 2 3 4
Probabilità
PGA(m/s^2)
Probability of Damage Above Ground
Steel Pipeline(WS, GF, CP)
RS>=RS1
RS=RS2
Maximum probability for a g of 0.556 cm/s2 for a frequency of 0.003 events/year (1 event every thousand years)
14. Case study 3: Milazzo (sicily)
0,000001
0,00001
0,0001
0,001
0,01
0,1
1
0,001 0,01 0,1 1 10
Exceedance
Probability(1
y)
g
Hazard curve
0,00E+00
2,00E-03
4,00E-03
6,00E-03
8,00E-03
1,00E-02
1,20E-02
1,40E-02
1,60E-02
0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4
Probabilità
PGA(cm/s^2)
Probability of Damage Above Ground
Steel Pipeline(WS, GF, CP)
RS>=RS1
RS=rs2
There is a maximum probability at a g of 0.556c cm/s2 corresponding to a frequency of 0.014 events/year (1 event per
100 years) in RS2.
15. Conclusions
The use of the latest generation HDPE materials resistant to hydrogen embrittlement and capable to
operate at high pressures provides considerable savings in the construction and assembly of new hydrogen
pipeline lines.
In the design of the new lines, greater attention must be paid to the type of joints, in order to maintain
a continuity of performance necessary to consider the pipeline as a CP pipeline.
The seismic vulnerability of the old hydrogen pipelines types and those of the new generation were
analyzed. Regards the new generation pipelines, an analysis of historical data of their performance at
earthquakes is required, in order to obtain data for a more accurated evaluation. A greater amount of data is
also required for the D<150 mm pipelines in order to have consistent data for the construction of fragilities in
RS1.
From the three locations analyzed with different assembly conditions and techniques, the best
performances are recorded for the buried steel hydrogen pipelines with welded joints in the presence of SGS. It
is also verified that, for surface pipelines the greatest probability of damage occurs in sicily, this in accordance
with the fact that the seismic risk is higher than in places such as bavaria (germany) and maastricht
(netherlands).