SEA Europe: Overview of the world shipbuilding capacity situation
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This document provides an overview of the current state of the global shipbuilding capacity situation. It discusses trends in the global macroeconomic situation and energy outlook that impact seaborne trade and fleet requirements. It then analyzes new building requirements for different vessel types like cargo carriers, offshore vessels, and passenger ships. It finds that nearly all shipbuilding segments face a threat of overcapacity. Global yard utilization is low and currently active yards have significant spare capacity.
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Current situation in the shipbuilding industry
- The shipbuilding industry has experienced periods of high and low volume over the past 50 years, recently suffering due to the 2008 financial crisis.
- Current challenges for creating value in shipbuilding include developing engineering capabilities, adapting to new technologies, and ensuring regulations are implemented in a way that enables new technologies.
- The SAJ2015 forecast models future seaborne trade and ship replacement needs to estimate newbuilding requirements through 2035. It assumes moderate global GDP growth and forecasts growing demand for gas carriers and container ships.
- The forecast estimates an average newbuilding requirement of 63.4 million gross tons between 2014-2035, with about half derived from replacing older ships and half from growth in seaborne trade.
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2. Characteristics of the concentrated and cyclical shipbuilding market that contribute to imbalances, such as structural overcapacity and the influence of shipping market cycles.
3. Potential policy measures to address imbalances, like temporary capacity reductions, but imbalances are expected to persist without strong actions or positive economic developments.
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Global shipbuilding
The global shipbuilding industry has grown significantly over the past few years, with output increasing at an annual rate of 8.3% between 2000-2005. Demand is high and order books are full for shipyards for the next 3 years. The industry is dominated by conventional vessels like tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships. Major players are located in Japan, South Korea, and China, which together account for over 70% of the world's shipbuilding output. The Indian shipbuilding industry is also growing and expected to reach $1.3 billion by 2015, though it still only accounts for 1% of the global industry currently.
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- The shipbuilding industry has experienced periods of high and low volume over the past 50 years, recently suffering due to the 2008 financial crisis.
- Current challenges for creating value in shipbuilding include developing engineering capabilities, adapting to new technologies, and ensuring regulations are implemented in a way that enables new technologies.
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2. Characteristics of the concentrated and cyclical shipbuilding market that contribute to imbalances, such as structural overcapacity and the influence of shipping market cycles.
3. Potential policy measures to address imbalances, like temporary capacity reductions, but imbalances are expected to persist without strong actions or positive economic developments.
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- 1. Overview of the world shipbuilding capacity situation by Jenny N. Braat, Chairman, SEA Europe Working Group on Market & Forecast & Managing Director at Danish Maritime
- 2. 1. Methodology 2. Global Macroeconomic Situation 3. Global Energy Outlook 4. Global Seaborne Trade 5. Fleet Requirement and Deletions 6. New-building Requirement: Cargo Carriers (container ships, general cargo, bulkers, tankers) Offshore Passenger Ships Other Non-Cargo Vessels: tugs, dredgers, fishing vessels, icebreakers, research vessels Global Yard Utilisation Developments Currently Active Yards: capacity to spare
- 4. World Real GDP Growth 2. Global Macroeconomic Situation
- 5. 3. Global Energy Outlook World energy consumption will grow 1.5% pa between 2014 and 2035. Non-OECD countries lead the demand driven by strong and sharp long-term growth. Energy use in non OECD countries increases about 2.5% per year between 2013 and 2035, while in OECD countries, the increase is nearly 0.5%.
- 6. 4. Global Seaborne Trade
- 7. 5. Fleet Requirements and Deletions 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 0.0 500.0 1,000.0 1,500.0 2,000.0 2,500.0 21.0 19.5 18.7 16.7 15.7 13.1 12.8 13 14.0 15.0 16.0 18.0 NCCVinmill.Gt Cargocarryingvesselsinmill.dwt. Total cargo carrying fleet Total NCCV fleet
- 8. Analysis of Newbuilding Requirements by Vessel Types & Sizes 1. Cargo Carriers: • Tankers • Containerships and General Cargo • Bulkers • LNG/LPG 2. Passenger Ships 3. Offshore Vessels 4. Specialized Vessels: • Tugs • Dredgers • Fishing • Icebreakers • Research • … 6. New-building Requirement
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- 11. Global Yard Utilisation Developments Sources: Clarkson’s / IHS Fairplay end Q1 2015 / Danish Ship Finance, Shipping Market Review - May 2015
- 12. Currently Active Yards: capacity to spare Source: Danish Ship Finance, Shipping Market Review - May 2015
- 13. Thank you!