This document summarizes research from the Institute for Transport Studies on whether government policy underestimates the public's willingness to change their travel behaviors. It presents data showing that when normal travel patterns are disrupted, such as during the Olympics, people do change their behaviors, with up to 16% showing high flexibility. However, there is a lack of clear policy direction and accountability across levels of government to effectively encourage changes. While the ability to change exists, governments have not made a serious coordinated effort to tap into it through legitimate policies that participate with the public.

1. Institute for Transport Studies
FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT
Is the public’s willingness to change
underestimated by policy makers?
Professor Greg Marsden
Director, Institute for Transport Studies

2. The Government
Overestimates Demand
Source: Phil Goodwin

3. And lots of change is beyond
Government

4. And lots of change is beyond
government
Worked 0 Days
1 Day
2 Days
3 Days
4 Days
5 Days
6+ days
Before
2%
2.5%
2%
8%
16%
70%
0.5%
After
1.5%
2.5%
4.5%
16.5%
27.5%
48%
0.5%
Impacts of an office consolidation on number of days in the office

5. And lots of change is beyond
Government
“Although the stimulus
for change varied, in
each case drivers
needed to decide what to
do when their normal
travel patterns were
disrupted, and there
were useful insights from
all the examples as to
how they reacted.”
Cairns, S., Atkins, S. and Goodwin, P.G. (2002) Disappearing Traffic?
The story so far, Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers:
Municipal Engineer 151 (1), 13-22

6. Preparedness and Actual change - Olympics
80% of those making no change are in pre-contemplation
Numbers in pre-contemplation decrease as number of changes made
increases
With thanks to Transport for London and Stephen Parkes

7. Pre Olympics Variation
With thanks to Transport for London and Stephen Parkes

8. Range of potential to change
Least
flexibility
=16.4%
Highest
flexibility
=6.4%
With thanks to Jillian Anable and Tom Budd – Disruption Project

9. Question
So – if there is a lot of change going on – is the government
underestimating the willingness of the public to change?

10. Shovel ready logic
“In our local transport plan we’ve three main objectives; one is
promoting economic growth, the second is reducing carbon
and transport emissions and the third is improving people’s
quality of live..... Erm politicians in the, for the first three years
of this plan… they decided that because of the financial
constraints that we were under this year, and beyond during
this comprehensive spending review period, that they wanted
to focus primarily on promoting growth and the economy”
(Local Government Official)

11. Lack of Imperative for Change
Climate Change Policy
Interviewer – ‘You seem to be suggesting that the lines of
accountability and responsibility across the various levels of
government and to a degree organisations and agencies
such as yourself are not particularly good’.
Response – ‘Well, they’re non-existent, I think, at the
moment.’
Findings Launched today: www.its.leeds.ac.uk/transport-carbon/publications

12. A world of inconsistency
c
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in
k
?
es
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si d
b
su
do
m
es
ti c
en
er
gy
Runw
ay Ca
pacity
ta
rif
s
re
en
G
Vehicle Scrappage Initiative
Supported bus services???
on
Source: Transport Statistics Great Britain 2013

13. Conclusion
• There is not a great untapped willingness to change
• There is an untapped ability to change
• But this requires a serious effort to be legitimate
• Participate www.disruptionproject.net
• @disruptionproj and @drgregmarsden
• E-mail: g.r.marsden@its.leeds.ac.uk