This document examines the relationship between stock market indices and macroeconomic variables in India during the post-globalization period. It provides background on studies that have explored this relationship in other countries and contexts. The study uses secondary data on macroeconomic indicators and the BSE Sensex index from 1992-2011. Growth trends for the Sensex and variables like GDP, capital formation, savings, and others are analyzed using linear, exponential, and quadratic functions. Preliminary results suggest that some variables like GDP, capital formation, and savings exhibited high growth and acceleration over this period, while others like gold prices and interest rates saw slower or decelerating growth. The analysis aims to better understand the direction and nature of the relationship between the Sensex
Stock market volatility and macroeconomic variables volatility in nigeria an ...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examines the relationship between stock market volatility and macroeconomic variable volatility in Nigeria from 1986 to 2010. The study uses an EGARCH model to estimate volatility and a LA-VAR Granger causality test to analyze the nexus between stock market volatility and macroeconomic variables. The results found evidence of a bi-causal relationship between stock market volatility and real GDP volatility, and no causal relationship between stock market volatility and interest rate or inflation rate volatility.
This document discusses a study on the impact of macroeconomic variables on India's stock market. It begins with an abstract noting that stock market performance reflects a country's economic conditions. It then reviews literature showing contradictory findings on which specific economic factors influence stock prices and the degree of influence. The study aims to examine the relationship between sectoral stock indices and respective sectoral GDP in India using monthly data from 2005 to 2012. It hypothesizes that movement in the BSE indices may be caused by selected macroeconomic variables or vice versa.
This document summarizes a study that examines the causal relationships between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Turkey from March 2001 to June 2010. The study uses the Granger causality test to analyze the relationships between the ISE-100 stock index and five macroeconomic variables: foreign exchange rate, gold price, money supply, industrial production index, and consumer price index. The results suggest there is unidirectional long-run causality from stock prices to the macroeconomic variables. This implies that stock prices can serve as a leading indicator for future movements in exchange rates, gold prices, money supply, industrial production, and inflation in Turkey.
An empirical study of macroeconomic factors and stock market an indian persp...Saurabh Yadav
This document presents an empirical study analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the Indian stock market from 1990 to 2011. The study uses various econometric tools like unit root tests, cointegration tests, vector autoregression models, impulse response analysis, and Granger causality tests to analyze the impact of macroeconomic indicators like industrial production, money supply, inflation on the BSE Sensex index. It aims to contribute new insights on how regulatory changes in the Indian economy over this period impacted asset prices and whether domestic or global factors had a larger influence on the Indian stock market.
Economic indicators and stock market performance an empirical case of indiaIAEME Publication
This document summarizes the proceedings from the 2nd International Conference on Current Trends in Engineering and Management held in Mysore, India in July 2014. It examines the relationship between various economic indicators (GDP, inflation, exchange rates, etc.) and stock market performance in India from 1998-2014. Using correlation and regression analysis, it finds that stock market performance as measured by the BSE Sensex is positively correlated with GDP, gross domestic savings, and gross capital formation. The regression model shows that these economic indicators explain about 77% of the variability in stock market performance.
6.[43 53]stock market volatility and macroeconomic variables volatility in ni...Alexander Decker
This study examines the relationship between stock market volatility and macroeconomic variable volatility in Nigeria from 1986 to 2010. It uses AR(k)-EGARCH(p,q) models to estimate volatility in the stock market and macroeconomic variables. It then uses LA-VAR Granger causality tests to analyze the connection between stock market volatility and macroeconomic variable volatility. The results show a bi-directional relationship between stock market volatility and real GDP volatility, but no causal relationship between stock market volatility and interest rate or inflation volatility. The study recommends government take a proactive role in developing the stock market to reduce volatility.
This document reviews the literature on the relationship between monetary policy and economic growth. It begins with an overview of the evolution of theories from classical quantity theory to modern New Keynesian and New Consensus models. While theories differ in their assumptions around price flexibility and market clearing, most support some short-run effect of monetary policy on output. Empirically, studies find mixed results, with some supporting and others finding no relationship, depending on factors like country development and institutional quality. Overall, the literature suggests monetary policy can impact growth in developed markets with independent central banks, while the relationship is weaker in developing economies.
Macroeconomic effects on the stock marketWINGFEI CHAN
This document presents a group project investigating the effects of macroeconomic factors on stock market returns using the S&P 500 index. The project uses monthly data from 2007 to 2011 to test the model developed by Chen, Roll and Ross (1986) which identified seven economic variables that could impact stock prices. The paper reviews previous literature on the topic, describes the data collection and processing methodology, and outlines the ordinary least squares regression analysis and diagnostic tests to be performed. Key macroeconomic variables examined include industrial production, inflation, risk premium, term structure, oil prices and consumption expenditure. The results of the statistical analyses are presented and conclusions are drawn regarding the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and stock market returns.
Stock market volatility and macroeconomic variables volatility in nigeria an ...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examines the relationship between stock market volatility and macroeconomic variable volatility in Nigeria from 1986 to 2010. The study uses an EGARCH model to estimate volatility and a LA-VAR Granger causality test to analyze the nexus between stock market volatility and macroeconomic variables. The results found evidence of a bi-causal relationship between stock market volatility and real GDP volatility, and no causal relationship between stock market volatility and interest rate or inflation rate volatility.
This document discusses a study on the impact of macroeconomic variables on India's stock market. It begins with an abstract noting that stock market performance reflects a country's economic conditions. It then reviews literature showing contradictory findings on which specific economic factors influence stock prices and the degree of influence. The study aims to examine the relationship between sectoral stock indices and respective sectoral GDP in India using monthly data from 2005 to 2012. It hypothesizes that movement in the BSE indices may be caused by selected macroeconomic variables or vice versa.
This document summarizes a study that examines the causal relationships between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Turkey from March 2001 to June 2010. The study uses the Granger causality test to analyze the relationships between the ISE-100 stock index and five macroeconomic variables: foreign exchange rate, gold price, money supply, industrial production index, and consumer price index. The results suggest there is unidirectional long-run causality from stock prices to the macroeconomic variables. This implies that stock prices can serve as a leading indicator for future movements in exchange rates, gold prices, money supply, industrial production, and inflation in Turkey.
An empirical study of macroeconomic factors and stock market an indian persp...Saurabh Yadav
This document presents an empirical study analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the Indian stock market from 1990 to 2011. The study uses various econometric tools like unit root tests, cointegration tests, vector autoregression models, impulse response analysis, and Granger causality tests to analyze the impact of macroeconomic indicators like industrial production, money supply, inflation on the BSE Sensex index. It aims to contribute new insights on how regulatory changes in the Indian economy over this period impacted asset prices and whether domestic or global factors had a larger influence on the Indian stock market.
Economic indicators and stock market performance an empirical case of indiaIAEME Publication
This document summarizes the proceedings from the 2nd International Conference on Current Trends in Engineering and Management held in Mysore, India in July 2014. It examines the relationship between various economic indicators (GDP, inflation, exchange rates, etc.) and stock market performance in India from 1998-2014. Using correlation and regression analysis, it finds that stock market performance as measured by the BSE Sensex is positively correlated with GDP, gross domestic savings, and gross capital formation. The regression model shows that these economic indicators explain about 77% of the variability in stock market performance.
6.[43 53]stock market volatility and macroeconomic variables volatility in ni...Alexander Decker
This study examines the relationship between stock market volatility and macroeconomic variable volatility in Nigeria from 1986 to 2010. It uses AR(k)-EGARCH(p,q) models to estimate volatility in the stock market and macroeconomic variables. It then uses LA-VAR Granger causality tests to analyze the connection between stock market volatility and macroeconomic variable volatility. The results show a bi-directional relationship between stock market volatility and real GDP volatility, but no causal relationship between stock market volatility and interest rate or inflation volatility. The study recommends government take a proactive role in developing the stock market to reduce volatility.
This document reviews the literature on the relationship between monetary policy and economic growth. It begins with an overview of the evolution of theories from classical quantity theory to modern New Keynesian and New Consensus models. While theories differ in their assumptions around price flexibility and market clearing, most support some short-run effect of monetary policy on output. Empirically, studies find mixed results, with some supporting and others finding no relationship, depending on factors like country development and institutional quality. Overall, the literature suggests monetary policy can impact growth in developed markets with independent central banks, while the relationship is weaker in developing economies.
Macroeconomic effects on the stock marketWINGFEI CHAN
This document presents a group project investigating the effects of macroeconomic factors on stock market returns using the S&P 500 index. The project uses monthly data from 2007 to 2011 to test the model developed by Chen, Roll and Ross (1986) which identified seven economic variables that could impact stock prices. The paper reviews previous literature on the topic, describes the data collection and processing methodology, and outlines the ordinary least squares regression analysis and diagnostic tests to be performed. Key macroeconomic variables examined include industrial production, inflation, risk premium, term structure, oil prices and consumption expenditure. The results of the statistical analyses are presented and conclusions are drawn regarding the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and stock market returns.
This study examines the relationship between inflation, monetary policy, and economic growth in Pakistan from 1989-2020. It uses inflation as the dependent variable and GDP, interest rate, money supply, and exchange rate as independent variables. Auto Regressive Distributive Lag techniques are employed. The findings show an inverse relationship between inflation and GDP, meaning inflation decreases as GDP increases. There is also a negative relationship between inflation and interest rate, but positive relationships between inflation and both money supply and exchange rate. Overall, the study aims to analyze how monetary policy tools like interest rates and money supply impact inflation and economic growth in Pakistan.
This document analyzes the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on economic growth in Vietnam from 2004 to 2013 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results show there is cointegration between macroeconomic policies and economic growth. Variance decomposition and impulse response functions from the VECM model indicate fiscal and monetary policies have a limited impact on economic growth, with monetary policy having a slightly greater effect than fiscal policy. The document recommends improving the effectiveness of implementing these policies in Vietnam.
This article seeks to examine the impact of the Bangladesh’s stock market development on its economic growth from the period of 1989-2012. We have used Johansen Cointegration test to estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables and the Granger causality test was conducted in order to establish causal relationship, while the model was estimated using the error correction model (ECM). Johansen co-integration test results show that the Bangladesh’s stock market development and economic growth are co-integrated. This indicates that a long run relationship exists between stock market development and economic growth in Bangladesh. The causality test results suggest a unidirectional causality from stock market development to the economic growth. On the other hand, there is no “reverse causation” from economic growth to stock market development. The evidence from this study reveals that the activities in the stock market tend to impact positively on the economy. It is recommended therefore that stock market regulatory authority should therefore address policy issues that are capable of boosting the investors’ confidence through improved policy formulation and creation of awareness.
This document reviews the literature on the impact of monetary policy on growth and employment in developing countries. It finds that monetary policy has limited impact on growth as money plays a small role in developing economies and much of inflation is imported. While monetary policy aims to control inflation, there is little evidence it directly impacts investment, technological change, or employment. The document argues growth does not guarantee development and examines whether growth improves living standards, creates formal jobs, or moves workers from low- to high-productivity sectors.
This study analyzed the relationship between asset prices and economic growth in India. The researchers used data from India's major stock markets (BSE and NSE) to represent asset prices, and the Index of Industrial Production to represent economic growth. A rolling correlation analysis found the relationship between asset prices and growth varied over time and occasionally showed negative correlation. Regression analysis indicated a generally positive relationship, though shocks can cause variation. Periods of high volatility in the stock markets coincided with higher positive correlation between asset prices and economic growth.
This document summarizes a working paper on monetary policy effectiveness in Pakistan. The paper estimates various VAR models and compares results to DSGE models. Key findings are:
1) VAR models using a conventional identification scheme find insignificant effects of monetary policy shocks on output and inflation in Pakistan.
2) A DSGE model that incorporates financial market frictions still shows significant monetary policy effects, contradicting the VAR results.
3) Simulating data from the DSGE model and estimating a VAR reveals that the recursive identification scheme may misidentify monetary policy shocks and underestimate their true effects on output and inflation.
Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Interactions: The Indian ExperienceIOSR Journals
To examine the effect of macroeconomic variables on the stock price movement in Indian Stock Market. Six variables of macro-economy (inflation, exchange rate, Industrial production, MoneySupply, Goldprice, interest rate) are used as independent variables. Sensex, Nifty and BSE 100are indicated as dependent variable. The monthly time series data are gathered from RBI handbook over the period of April 2008 to June 2012. Multiple regression analysis is applied in this paper to construct a quantitative model showing the relationship between macroeconomics and stock price. The result of this paper indicates that significant relationship is occurred between macroeconomics variable’s and stock price in India.
Impact on select macro economic variables on the movement of bse sensexMAMPIYACHANDRA
The document reviews previous literature on the relationship between stock markets and macroeconomic variables. Several studies found:
1) There is generally a long-run relationship and cointegration between macroeconomic variables like exchange rates, interest rates, inflation, and stock market indices.
2) In the short-run, factors like inflation, exchange rates, and money supply can impact stock prices and returns.
3) For India specifically, studies found exchange rates, foreign investment, industrial production, and money supply to be significant determinants of the BSE Sensex.
4) However, most prior studies had limitations like examining only a few macroeconomic variables or a limited time period. This study aims to help fill those
11.exchange rate and macroeconomic aggregates in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the impact of exchange rates on macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria from 1970 to 2009. It uses simultaneous equation models and vector-autoregressive models to examine the relationship between real exchange rates and GDP growth. The results show no strong direct relationship between exchange rate changes and GDP growth. Rather, Nigeria's economic growth has been directly affected by fiscal and monetary policies and exports. Exchange rate overvaluation has been unfavorable for growth. The conclusion is that exchange rate management improvements are necessary but not sufficient to revive the Nigerian economy and broader economic reforms are required.
Exchange rate and macroeconomic aggregates in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the impact of exchange rates on macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria from 1970 to 2009. Using simultaneous equation models and vector-autoregressive models, the study finds no strong direct relationship between exchange rate changes and GDP growth in Nigeria. Rather, economic growth has been directly affected by fiscal and monetary policies and exports, which have sustained an overvalued exchange rate that has been unfavorable for growth. The conclusion is that improving exchange rate management is necessary but not sufficient to revive the Nigerian economy, and a broader program of economic reforms is required, including complementary restrictive monetary policy.
Developing economies are different than developed economies in many aspects, i.e., in terms of institutional framework and political situation etc. Thus, the monetary policy needed in developing countries is also different than developed countries. The goal of this study is to investigate exchange rate channel of monetary transmission mechanism in a developing country’s setup. The variables included in our analysis are interest rate, exchange rate, exports, consumer price index and gross domestic product. Johansen cointegration technique is applied to analyze the long run relationship among variables while multivariate VECM granger causality test is used to explore the direction of causality among the set of our variables. We use annual data ranging from 1980 to 2015 while taking account of the limitations of time series data. Our findings suggest that output has a negative long run relationship with exchange rate and interest rate, positive relationship with exports and no statistically significant relationship with inflation. Interest rate granger causes all four of our variables thus showing the power of this policy tool. Exchange rate causes exports, consumer price index and output which means exchange rate is the second most powerful variable in our analysis. Output is granger caused by interest rate, exports and exchange rate which confirms the sensitivity of output to these variables. Consumer price index is granger caused by all four of our variables and came out to be the most sensitive variable in our analysis.
11.exchange rate volatility and stock market behaviour the nigerian experienceAlexander Decker
The study examines the relationship between exchange rates and stock market performance in Nigeria from 1985 to 2009 using cointegration and causality tests. The results show:
1) Exchange rates and stock market performance are cointegrated, indicating a long-run equilibrium relationship.
2) The long-run relationship between exchange rates and stock market performance is negative - exchange rate fluctuations negatively impact stock market performance.
3) Granger causality tests show exchange rates cause stock market performance in Nigeria, implying exchange rate volatility explains variations in the stock market.
48 variable macroeconomics on stock return 25 ags 2019Aminullah Assagaf
This study examines the effect of macroeconomic variables (inflation, interest rates, money supply, exchange rates) on stock returns of companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from November 2016 to June 2018. Using multiple linear regression analysis on monthly data, the study found that macroeconomic variables have a significant effect on stock returns. Specifically, changes in inflation rates, interest rates, money supply, and the Rupiah exchange rate influence the overall stock price index and company stock returns in Indonesia. The results indicate macroeconomic conditions impact stock market performance.
Empirical literature on money demand is mainly based on the estimation of a long run relation by means of time-invariant cointergration approach. Taiwan has experienced the economic and financial regime change since 1979. The purpose of this paper is to test structural breaks in Taiwan long run money demand equation. We examine six of the most influential specifications proposed in the literature. The classical set of explanatory variables (e.g. income and interest rates) is extended on the base of a number underlying economic reasons related to financial, labor and international portfolio characteristics. The results suggest that international financial market variables and the classical specifications are the key determinants of structural instability observed in Taiwan broad money.
11.monetary policy, exchange rate and inflation rate in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes research on the relationship between monetary policy, exchange rates, and inflation rates in Nigeria from 1986 to 2010. It finds that there is a cointegrating relationship between the variables using a vector error correction model. Specifically, it finds unidirectional causation from exchange rates and inflation to interest rates (the monetary policy measure), and bidirectional causation between inflation and exchange rates. No causation was found from interest rates to exchange rates or inflation. This provides evidence that changes in exchange rates and inflation cause changes in monetary policy rather than the other way around. The study recommends appropriate management and control of exchange rates and inflation.
This document discusses reverse logistics, which refers to the movement of goods from consumers back to producers. It covers key aspects of reverse logistics like performance measurement, strategies, and how it varies over a product's lifecycle. Specifically, it discusses:
1) The need for performance measurement in reverse logistics to improve operations and gain benefits. It proposes strategic measures from customer, internal process, innovation, and financial perspectives.
2) How reverse logistics activities and return volumes vary over a product's introduction, growth, maturity, decline, and obsolete phases.
3) Important reverse logistics strategies companies use related to customer satisfaction, new technologies, environmental sustainability, alliances, knowledge management, and value recovery
Ug 205-image-retrieval-using-re-ranking-algorithm-11Ijcem Journal
This document summarizes a research paper on improving image search results through re-ranking algorithms. It discusses limitations of current keyword-based image search engines, such as irrelevant results and duplicate images. The paper proposes re-ranking images to reduce user effort and generate more accurate results for a specified object class. It describes extracting color features from images and using histograms to re-rank images retrieved from a web search based on the object identifier. The paper outlines implementing k-means and hierarchical clustering algorithms to cluster and re-rank images based on color similarity. It presents experimental results clustering 100 images into 4 groups and discusses applications and opportunities for future work.
Role of-financial-inclusion-in-restraining-entrepreneurial-breakdown-in-india1Ijcem Journal
This document discusses the role of financial inclusion in limiting entrepreneurial failure in India. It states that small and marginalized enterprises in the informal sector often do not have access to formal financial institutions due to a lack of proper documentation and property rights. As a result, millions of potential entrepreneurs are trapped in a cycle of exclusion and unable to benefit from opportunities. The document argues that increasing access to financial services like credit and insurance for these enterprises can empower entrepreneurs and help create an environment that fosters new business growth. It aims to explore how linkages between the formal and informal economies through financial inclusion tools can help plug leaks in the informal system and help entrepreneurs sustain their initiatives despite liquidity constraints.
This document summarizes a research paper on improving security in position-based routing protocols for vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs). It begins with background on VANETs and discusses challenges like attacks and security issues. It then proposes a new enhanced position-based routing protocol that can detect and defend against malicious nodes dropping packets, like in a black hole attack. This is achieved using digital signatures for authentication and estimating nodes' reliability based on their packet forwarding rates. The protocol is evaluated through network simulation and shows effectiveness in improving security.
This study examines the relationship between inflation, monetary policy, and economic growth in Pakistan from 1989-2020. It uses inflation as the dependent variable and GDP, interest rate, money supply, and exchange rate as independent variables. Auto Regressive Distributive Lag techniques are employed. The findings show an inverse relationship between inflation and GDP, meaning inflation decreases as GDP increases. There is also a negative relationship between inflation and interest rate, but positive relationships between inflation and both money supply and exchange rate. Overall, the study aims to analyze how monetary policy tools like interest rates and money supply impact inflation and economic growth in Pakistan.
This document analyzes the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on economic growth in Vietnam from 2004 to 2013 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results show there is cointegration between macroeconomic policies and economic growth. Variance decomposition and impulse response functions from the VECM model indicate fiscal and monetary policies have a limited impact on economic growth, with monetary policy having a slightly greater effect than fiscal policy. The document recommends improving the effectiveness of implementing these policies in Vietnam.
This article seeks to examine the impact of the Bangladesh’s stock market development on its economic growth from the period of 1989-2012. We have used Johansen Cointegration test to estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables and the Granger causality test was conducted in order to establish causal relationship, while the model was estimated using the error correction model (ECM). Johansen co-integration test results show that the Bangladesh’s stock market development and economic growth are co-integrated. This indicates that a long run relationship exists between stock market development and economic growth in Bangladesh. The causality test results suggest a unidirectional causality from stock market development to the economic growth. On the other hand, there is no “reverse causation” from economic growth to stock market development. The evidence from this study reveals that the activities in the stock market tend to impact positively on the economy. It is recommended therefore that stock market regulatory authority should therefore address policy issues that are capable of boosting the investors’ confidence through improved policy formulation and creation of awareness.
This document reviews the literature on the impact of monetary policy on growth and employment in developing countries. It finds that monetary policy has limited impact on growth as money plays a small role in developing economies and much of inflation is imported. While monetary policy aims to control inflation, there is little evidence it directly impacts investment, technological change, or employment. The document argues growth does not guarantee development and examines whether growth improves living standards, creates formal jobs, or moves workers from low- to high-productivity sectors.
This study analyzed the relationship between asset prices and economic growth in India. The researchers used data from India's major stock markets (BSE and NSE) to represent asset prices, and the Index of Industrial Production to represent economic growth. A rolling correlation analysis found the relationship between asset prices and growth varied over time and occasionally showed negative correlation. Regression analysis indicated a generally positive relationship, though shocks can cause variation. Periods of high volatility in the stock markets coincided with higher positive correlation between asset prices and economic growth.
This document summarizes a working paper on monetary policy effectiveness in Pakistan. The paper estimates various VAR models and compares results to DSGE models. Key findings are:
1) VAR models using a conventional identification scheme find insignificant effects of monetary policy shocks on output and inflation in Pakistan.
2) A DSGE model that incorporates financial market frictions still shows significant monetary policy effects, contradicting the VAR results.
3) Simulating data from the DSGE model and estimating a VAR reveals that the recursive identification scheme may misidentify monetary policy shocks and underestimate their true effects on output and inflation.
Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Interactions: The Indian ExperienceIOSR Journals
To examine the effect of macroeconomic variables on the stock price movement in Indian Stock Market. Six variables of macro-economy (inflation, exchange rate, Industrial production, MoneySupply, Goldprice, interest rate) are used as independent variables. Sensex, Nifty and BSE 100are indicated as dependent variable. The monthly time series data are gathered from RBI handbook over the period of April 2008 to June 2012. Multiple regression analysis is applied in this paper to construct a quantitative model showing the relationship between macroeconomics and stock price. The result of this paper indicates that significant relationship is occurred between macroeconomics variable’s and stock price in India.
Impact on select macro economic variables on the movement of bse sensexMAMPIYACHANDRA
The document reviews previous literature on the relationship between stock markets and macroeconomic variables. Several studies found:
1) There is generally a long-run relationship and cointegration between macroeconomic variables like exchange rates, interest rates, inflation, and stock market indices.
2) In the short-run, factors like inflation, exchange rates, and money supply can impact stock prices and returns.
3) For India specifically, studies found exchange rates, foreign investment, industrial production, and money supply to be significant determinants of the BSE Sensex.
4) However, most prior studies had limitations like examining only a few macroeconomic variables or a limited time period. This study aims to help fill those
11.exchange rate and macroeconomic aggregates in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the impact of exchange rates on macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria from 1970 to 2009. It uses simultaneous equation models and vector-autoregressive models to examine the relationship between real exchange rates and GDP growth. The results show no strong direct relationship between exchange rate changes and GDP growth. Rather, Nigeria's economic growth has been directly affected by fiscal and monetary policies and exports. Exchange rate overvaluation has been unfavorable for growth. The conclusion is that exchange rate management improvements are necessary but not sufficient to revive the Nigerian economy and broader economic reforms are required.
Exchange rate and macroeconomic aggregates in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the impact of exchange rates on macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria from 1970 to 2009. Using simultaneous equation models and vector-autoregressive models, the study finds no strong direct relationship between exchange rate changes and GDP growth in Nigeria. Rather, economic growth has been directly affected by fiscal and monetary policies and exports, which have sustained an overvalued exchange rate that has been unfavorable for growth. The conclusion is that improving exchange rate management is necessary but not sufficient to revive the Nigerian economy, and a broader program of economic reforms is required, including complementary restrictive monetary policy.
Developing economies are different than developed economies in many aspects, i.e., in terms of institutional framework and political situation etc. Thus, the monetary policy needed in developing countries is also different than developed countries. The goal of this study is to investigate exchange rate channel of monetary transmission mechanism in a developing country’s setup. The variables included in our analysis are interest rate, exchange rate, exports, consumer price index and gross domestic product. Johansen cointegration technique is applied to analyze the long run relationship among variables while multivariate VECM granger causality test is used to explore the direction of causality among the set of our variables. We use annual data ranging from 1980 to 2015 while taking account of the limitations of time series data. Our findings suggest that output has a negative long run relationship with exchange rate and interest rate, positive relationship with exports and no statistically significant relationship with inflation. Interest rate granger causes all four of our variables thus showing the power of this policy tool. Exchange rate causes exports, consumer price index and output which means exchange rate is the second most powerful variable in our analysis. Output is granger caused by interest rate, exports and exchange rate which confirms the sensitivity of output to these variables. Consumer price index is granger caused by all four of our variables and came out to be the most sensitive variable in our analysis.
11.exchange rate volatility and stock market behaviour the nigerian experienceAlexander Decker
The study examines the relationship between exchange rates and stock market performance in Nigeria from 1985 to 2009 using cointegration and causality tests. The results show:
1) Exchange rates and stock market performance are cointegrated, indicating a long-run equilibrium relationship.
2) The long-run relationship between exchange rates and stock market performance is negative - exchange rate fluctuations negatively impact stock market performance.
3) Granger causality tests show exchange rates cause stock market performance in Nigeria, implying exchange rate volatility explains variations in the stock market.
48 variable macroeconomics on stock return 25 ags 2019Aminullah Assagaf
This study examines the effect of macroeconomic variables (inflation, interest rates, money supply, exchange rates) on stock returns of companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from November 2016 to June 2018. Using multiple linear regression analysis on monthly data, the study found that macroeconomic variables have a significant effect on stock returns. Specifically, changes in inflation rates, interest rates, money supply, and the Rupiah exchange rate influence the overall stock price index and company stock returns in Indonesia. The results indicate macroeconomic conditions impact stock market performance.
Empirical literature on money demand is mainly based on the estimation of a long run relation by means of time-invariant cointergration approach. Taiwan has experienced the economic and financial regime change since 1979. The purpose of this paper is to test structural breaks in Taiwan long run money demand equation. We examine six of the most influential specifications proposed in the literature. The classical set of explanatory variables (e.g. income and interest rates) is extended on the base of a number underlying economic reasons related to financial, labor and international portfolio characteristics. The results suggest that international financial market variables and the classical specifications are the key determinants of structural instability observed in Taiwan broad money.
11.monetary policy, exchange rate and inflation rate in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes research on the relationship between monetary policy, exchange rates, and inflation rates in Nigeria from 1986 to 2010. It finds that there is a cointegrating relationship between the variables using a vector error correction model. Specifically, it finds unidirectional causation from exchange rates and inflation to interest rates (the monetary policy measure), and bidirectional causation between inflation and exchange rates. No causation was found from interest rates to exchange rates or inflation. This provides evidence that changes in exchange rates and inflation cause changes in monetary policy rather than the other way around. The study recommends appropriate management and control of exchange rates and inflation.
This document discusses reverse logistics, which refers to the movement of goods from consumers back to producers. It covers key aspects of reverse logistics like performance measurement, strategies, and how it varies over a product's lifecycle. Specifically, it discusses:
1) The need for performance measurement in reverse logistics to improve operations and gain benefits. It proposes strategic measures from customer, internal process, innovation, and financial perspectives.
2) How reverse logistics activities and return volumes vary over a product's introduction, growth, maturity, decline, and obsolete phases.
3) Important reverse logistics strategies companies use related to customer satisfaction, new technologies, environmental sustainability, alliances, knowledge management, and value recovery
Ug 205-image-retrieval-using-re-ranking-algorithm-11Ijcem Journal
This document summarizes a research paper on improving image search results through re-ranking algorithms. It discusses limitations of current keyword-based image search engines, such as irrelevant results and duplicate images. The paper proposes re-ranking images to reduce user effort and generate more accurate results for a specified object class. It describes extracting color features from images and using histograms to re-rank images retrieved from a web search based on the object identifier. The paper outlines implementing k-means and hierarchical clustering algorithms to cluster and re-rank images based on color similarity. It presents experimental results clustering 100 images into 4 groups and discusses applications and opportunities for future work.
Role of-financial-inclusion-in-restraining-entrepreneurial-breakdown-in-india1Ijcem Journal
This document discusses the role of financial inclusion in limiting entrepreneurial failure in India. It states that small and marginalized enterprises in the informal sector often do not have access to formal financial institutions due to a lack of proper documentation and property rights. As a result, millions of potential entrepreneurs are trapped in a cycle of exclusion and unable to benefit from opportunities. The document argues that increasing access to financial services like credit and insurance for these enterprises can empower entrepreneurs and help create an environment that fosters new business growth. It aims to explore how linkages between the formal and informal economies through financial inclusion tools can help plug leaks in the informal system and help entrepreneurs sustain their initiatives despite liquidity constraints.
This document summarizes a research paper on improving security in position-based routing protocols for vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs). It begins with background on VANETs and discusses challenges like attacks and security issues. It then proposes a new enhanced position-based routing protocol that can detect and defend against malicious nodes dropping packets, like in a black hole attack. This is achieved using digital signatures for authentication and estimating nodes' reliability based on their packet forwarding rates. The protocol is evaluated through network simulation and shows effectiveness in improving security.
This document examines the relationship between stock market indices and macroeconomic variables in India during the post-globalization period. It provides background on studies that have explored this relationship in other countries and contexts. The study uses secondary data on macroeconomic indicators and the BSE Sensex index from 1992-2011. Growth trends are analyzed using linear, exponential, and quadratic functions to understand how variables have moved over time. Preliminary results suggest several macro variables like GDP, capital formation, savings, and money supply have grown significantly and accelerated over the period, while others like industrial output and gold prices have had slower or decelerating growth. The analysis aims to better understand the direction and nature of the relationship between the Sensex and macroeconomic factors
This document summarizes a study on supplier selection at Lucas-TVS using multi-criteria decision making. The study aims to develop a systematic supplier selection procedure considering criteria like cost, quality, time of delivery and service. It will use the TOPSIS and AHP methods on existing supplier ratings and records collected from Lucas-TVS to select the best supplier for the company's needs while addressing limitations of using secondary data and potentially arbitrary scorings.
GROUP FUZZY TOPSIS METHODOLOGY IN COMPUTER SECURITY SOFTWARE SELECTIONijfls
This document presents a group fuzzy TOPSIS methodology for selecting antivirus software. It discusses the risks of malware and importance of antivirus software. It then reviews fuzzy sets, fuzzy numbers, TOPSIS, and group fuzzy TOPSIS decision making approaches. The document applies these techniques to evaluate 7 popular antivirus alternatives based on 7 criteria from expert opinions. Sensitivity analysis is conducted on the results to provide insights for different user needs.
This document summarizes several papers related to fuzzy logic and its applications. It discusses fuzzy sets and their use in domains with incomplete or imprecise information. It also summarizes papers on specific applications of fuzzy logic, including controlling an industrial plant, optimizing efficiency in adjustable speed drive systems, and developing a fuzzy logic controller for a hybrid vehicle.
Experience Mazda Zoom Zoom Lifestyle and Culture by Visiting and joining the Official Mazda Community at http://www.MazdaCommunity.org for additional insight into the Zoom Zoom Lifestyle and special offers for Mazda Community Members. If you live in Arizona, check out CardinaleWay Mazda's eCommerce website at http://www.Cardinale-Way-Mazda.com
TOPSIS - A multi-criteria decision making approachPresi
This document discusses the TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method for multi-criteria decision making (MCDM). It defines key terms like alternatives, criteria, weights, and decision matrices. It then outlines the steps in the TOPSIS method, which include standardizing the decision matrix, determining the ideal and negative ideal solutions, calculating the separation from each alternative to the ideal and negative ideal solutions, and selecting the alternative with the shortest distance from the ideal and farthest from the negative ideal solution.
Economic indicators and stock market performance an empirical case of indiaIAEME Publication
This document summarizes a study that examines the relationship between various economic indicators and stock market performance in India from 1998 to 2014. It finds that GDP growth, gross domestic savings, and gross capital formation have a positive influence on the BSE Sensex, while inflation, exchange rates, interest rates, unemployment, and FDI do not. A regression model is developed that explains 77.2% of the variability in stock market performance based on these economic factors. The study thus provides evidence that certain macroeconomic variables influence long-term stock prices in the Indian market.
This document summarizes a research article that examines the co-movement and integration of 10 stock markets over the period from January 1998 to January 2020. The markets studied are India (BSE Sensex), Germany (DAX), Indonesia (JKSE), Mexico (MXX), US (IXIC), France (FCHI), Eurozone (EURO), Japan (HIS), and South Korea (KOSPI). The researchers used statistical methods like correlation analysis, Granger causality tests, cointegration tests, and variance decomposition to analyze the short-term and long-term relationships between the various stock indices. The results provide insights into how integrated the markets are and how shocks to one market influence others. This has implications
Does Economic Growth Affect Capital Market Development In Nigeria? 1985 – 2016AJHSSR Journal
The goal of this paper is to assess the impact of economic growth affects capital market
development in Nigeria using annualised data from 1986-2016. We employed that Johansen cointegration
technique to determine if our variables are cointegrated. The error correction model (ECM) was employed to
estimate our dynamic short and long-run model. Various diagnostic tests were also conducted to confirm the
validity of our results. The results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between economic growth and
capital market development. The baseline estimator further showed that economic growth has significant
positive influence on capital market development. We also found that inflation has significant negative impact
on the capital market while money supply was found to have insignificant effect on the dependent variable. The
error correction term showed evidence of slow speed of adjustment toward long-run equilibrium, with deviation
from equilibrium corrected at the speed of 2.3 percent on annual basis. We conclude that economic growth
indeed drives capital market development in Nigeria. And were recommend that policies aimed at facilitating
economic activities should be pursued by the monetary authorities, the government and policymakers to further
enhance the development of Nigerian capital market
American Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development is indexed, refereed and peer-reviewed journal, which is designed to publish research articles.
American Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development is indexed, refereed and peer-reviewed journal, which is designed to publish research articles.
6.[43 53]stock market volatility and macroeconomic variables volatility in ni...Alexander Decker
This document examines the relationship between stock market volatility and macroeconomic volatility in Nigeria from 1986 to 2010. It employs the AR(k)-EGARCH(p,q) technique to analyze volatility and the LA-VAR Granger Causality test to analyze the nexus. The results found a bi-causal relationship between stock market volatility and real GDP volatility, but no causal relationship between stock market volatility and interest rate or inflation volatility. The study recommends government take a proactive role in developing the stock market to reduce volatility.
This paper examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on firm level equity premium. Following
the concept of macro-based risk factor model, we consider macroeconomic variable set of equity premium
determinant. The macroeconomic variables include interest rate, money supply, industrial production, inflation
and foreign direct investment. The macroeconomic variables are not in control of the firm's management. These
are the external factors which affect the company as well as the overall market returns. The Macro-based
Multifactor Model is estimated for the whole sample. It is found that the market premium and the selected five
macroeconomic factors significantly affect the firm level equity premium of non-financial firms. Increase in
market premium, money supply, foreign direct investment and industrial production positively affect the firm
level equity premium while increase in interest rate and inflation negatively affects the firm level equity
premium. These findings are beneficial for the common shareholders, institutional investors and policy makers
to find more specific insight about the relationship between macroeconomic variables and equity premium of
non-financial sectors.
This document examines the effect of macroeconomic variables (exchange rate, treasury bill rate, and inflation rate) on sectoral share price indices in Sri Lanka from 2008 to 2012. Multiple regression analysis found that the macroeconomic variables explained over 50% of the variation in share prices for all sectors except telecom. Exchange rate and inflation rate generally had a significant negative and positive effect respectively on share prices, while treasury bill rate had a mostly negative but weaker effect. Inflation rate tended to be the most influential macroeconomic variable for most sectors.
1.[1 12]stock prices and microeconomic variablesAlexander Decker
This research examines the long-run relationship and causal direction between stock prices on the Dhaka Stock Exchange and four microeconomic variables: market dividend yield, market price-earnings multiples, monthly average market capitalization, and monthly average trading volume. Using monthly data from 2000 to 2010, the study finds a long-run equilibrium among the variables. However, stock prices do not Granger cause dividend yields. Stock prices have a bi-directional causal relationship with price-earnings multiples and trading volume, and a uni-directional causal relationship from stock prices to market capitalization.
Inter Linkage between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Indices Using Granger...ijtsrd
As exchange rate and GDP are the important factors which influence the behavior of stock market. In this study we have examined the Co integration between macroeconomic variables and Indian stock market and causality between exchange rate and GDP with stock return. We have applied 42years data on yearly basis for GDP, exchange rate and stock return and applied ADF test for checking Stationarity, Correlogram for serial correlation, Johansen Co integration for association and Granger causality test for examine multiple causal relation by controlling the effects of other variables, then Impulse Response Function used for checking the responsiveness of a time series to unexpected shocks in other time series. The study found that exchange rate significantly granger causes the stock return Indian stock market and long run co integration found to be significant in amongst the selected variables. Dr. Amit Manglani | Mr. Suraj Patel "Inter-Linkage between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Indices: Using Granger Causality & Co-Integration Approach" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-6 | Issue-6 , October 2022, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd51868.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/humanities-and-the-arts/other/51868/interlinkage-between-macroeconomic-variables-and-stock-indices-using-granger-causality-and-cointegration-approach/dr-amit-manglani
Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Capital Market Performance in...Fakir Tajul Islam
This paper examines the institutional and macroeconomic
determinants of stock market performance using data in the last 20 years starting from 1995 to 2015. In this
paper, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), inflation rate and Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI) inflows were used as the proxy of macroeconomic determinants, whereas market capitalization, total
issued capital and market turnover of Dhaka Stock Exchange were the proxy of institutional determinants of
capital market performance.
Examine the long run relationship between financial development and economic ...Alexander Decker
This study examines the long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth in India using monthly data from January 1994 to December 2011. The empirical results found two cointegrating equations between the variables. The vector error correction model shows that in the long run, stock market development negatively impacts economic growth, while increases in bank credit positively affect the economy. Money supply was also found to negatively impact economic growth in the long run, while trade openness had no impact. The study suggests that financial sector liberalization and openness policies can promote economic growth by improving market size and maintaining macroeconomic stability.
Foreign exchange reserve and its impact on stock market capitalizationAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that examines the relationship between India's foreign exchange reserves and stock market capitalization on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) from 1990-1991 to 2010-2011. Using regression analysis, unit root tests, and Granger causality tests, the research finds that foreign exchange reserves have a positive impact on BSE market capitalization. The Granger causality test also shows there is unidirectional causality running from foreign exchange reserves to stock market capitalization, but not vice versa. A brief literature review discusses several other studies that have examined relationships between macroeconomic variables like exchange rates, foreign reserves, and stock market prices.
11.foreign exchange reserve and its impact on stock market capitalizationAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that examines the relationship between India's foreign exchange reserves and stock market capitalization on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) from 1990-1991 to 2010-2011. Using regression analysis, unit root tests, and Granger causality tests, the research finds that foreign exchange reserves have a positive impact on BSE market capitalization. The Granger causality test indicates causality runs unidirectionally from foreign exchange reserves to stock market capitalization, not vice versa. The study aims to provide information to help stock brokers, investors, and policymakers understand how trends in foreign exchange reserves may impact India's stock markets, particularly the BSE.
The relationship between amman stock exchange (ase) market and real gross dom...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that investigated the relationship between Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) market development and Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Jordan from 1999-2012. Statistical analyses including correlation, regression, and time series techniques were used. The results showed:
1) The industrial sector showed a strong positive relationship with GDP, while other ASE sectors did not correlate significantly with GDP.
2) Simple regression showed ASE market indicators did not affect GDP individually, but multiple regression showed ASE sectors together affected GDP.
3) Stepwise regression identified the industrial sector as having a strong positive effect on GDP, while the insurance sector had a negative effect.
4) Only the industrial sector significantly affected
This document examines the relationship between macroeconomic variables (interest rate, inflation, exchange rate, and GDP) and share prices on the Nairobi Securities Exchange from 2008 to 2014. It finds that GDP and exchange rates had a positive relationship with share prices, while interest rates had a negative relationship and inflation a significant negative relationship. Overall, the four macroeconomic variables combined had a strong positive and significant relationship with share prices, accounting for 86.97% of changes in share prices. The study concludes that maintaining macroeconomic stability in Kenya is important for optimal stock market performance.
Forecasting real economic growth by using the information contents of financial asset prices is one of the main themes in financial studies in recent years. Based on the micro-level stock data from Shenzhen Stock Exchange Market, the paper constructs a cross-section volatility measure using sample stocks, investigates the impact of stock price volatility on economic growth, and forecasts economic growth with stock prices volatility of different firm size. The empirical results indicate that stock price volatility is a good indicator for forecasting economic growth. The results also show that volatility of both large and small firms can be useful in forecasting economic growth. In addition, volatility of small firms can better predict economic growth.
This document discusses security protocols for position-based routing in vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs). It first provides background on VANETs and the need for secure routing protocols. It then reviews several existing security protocols for VANET routing, including those using digital signatures, anonymous keys, and group signatures. The document proposes an enhanced secure position-based protocol (SPBR) to address attacks like black hole attacks. It also discusses two specific security methods - hybrid signatures and an efficient scheme using HMAC and digital signatures. The document evaluates the performance of these methods through network simulation.
This document summarizes a study analyzing the electrical power transmission system of goliath cranes used in a transmission tower manufacturing company. The existing system uses cable trolleys to supply power, which frequently break down due to cable damage. This causes production losses. The study proposes implementing a bus-bar system instead to supply power to crane motors. A payback analysis finds that the investment in a bus-bar system would pay for itself within 1.5 years due to reduced breakdowns and increased production. Reliability-centered maintenance is also discussed as an approach to further improve crane system availability and reduce costs.
This document discusses the balanced scorecard (BSC) approach to measuring organizational performance. It provides background on BSC, noting that it integrates financial and non-financial metrics to help organizations translate strategy into tangible objectives. The document then outlines the typical phases of BSC implementation, including strategy synthesis, measure synthesis, technical implementation, organizational integration, technical integration, and ongoing operation. It also discusses linking department-level BSCs to the overall organizational BSC and strategy. Finally, the document reviews prior literature on BSC and performance measurement.
New prepaid-energy-meter-for-billing-system-using-recharge-card-and-ldr-2-1-2-11Ijcem Journal
This document describes a prepaid energy meter system using microcontrollers. The system uses an AT89S52 microcontroller and AT24C02 microcontroller to manage energy usage and recharges from a prepaid card. An LDR circuit counts energy consumption and displays the remaining amount on an LCD. When credit is depleted, a relay disconnects power. The system aims to provide a more efficient prepaid billing approach compared to traditional systems by automating processes and reducing human errors and theft. It was tested over 120 seconds with a 100W light bulb to validate functionality.
This document proposes an algorithm to analyze website logs to determine pages on a website that are located in places different from where visitors expect to find them. The algorithm is based on the idea that visitors will backtrack in the website if they do not find a page where they expect it. By analyzing patterns of backtracking in website logs, the algorithm can determine the expected locations of pages. The expected locations identified can then be presented to the website administrator to help improve navigation on the site. The document also discusses challenges with accounting for browser caching and differentiating between visitors browsing multiple pages versus searching for a single page. An experiment applying the algorithm to a university website log is also described.
This document compares two protocols - NEMA and AAPM - for measuring the dead time of a scintillation camera system. Dead time was measured using both extrinsic and intrinsic methods. For extrinsic dead time, results using AAPM were within specifications, while NEMA provided more accurate measurements. For intrinsic dead time, AAPM results were slightly higher than specifications, while NEMA measurements had smaller standard deviations. The maximum count rate that can be detected with 20% dead time loss was higher when calculated using NEMA protocol measurements. In summary, AAPM is suitable for extrinsic dead time, while NEMA provides more precise intrinsic dead time measurements.
This document discusses the implementation of a hybrid cryptography algorithm combining DES and IDEA. It begins by providing background on encryption, key escrow schemes, and the need for stronger algorithms. It then separately describes DES and IDEA, including their structure, performance analysis, and types of cryptanalysis attacks they are susceptible to. The document proposes a new hybrid algorithm combining DES and IDEA to improve security and integrity.
This document discusses face detection and recognition techniques using MATLAB. It begins with an abstract describing face detection as determining the location and size of faces in images and ignoring other objects. It then discusses implementing an algorithm to recognize faces from images in near real-time by calculating the difference between an input face and the average of faces in a training set. The document then provides details on various face recognition methods, the 5 step process of facial recognition, benefits and applications, and concludes that recent algorithms are much more accurate than older ones.
Heavy metal-contamination-in-solid-aerosols-and-top-soils-of-faisalabad-envio...Ijcem Journal
This document summarizes a study analyzing heavy metal contamination in solid aerosols and top soils in Faisalabad, Pakistan. Atomic absorption spectrometry was used to analyze samples of solid aerosols and soils from 50 sites for levels of cadmium, copper, zinc and lead. The study found elevated levels of cadmium and lead in solid aerosols, and all four metals in soils, with concentrations highest in industrial and commercial areas. Statistical analysis showed significant variability between sites. The authors conclude that various industries are contributing heavy metals to the local environment and negatively impacting human health.
This document provides a framework for developing a knowledge management strategy system. It defines knowledge management and discusses the importance of both explicit and tacit knowledge. It also outlines key elements of an effective knowledge management system strategy, including assessing the current culture and systems, setting goals for improvement, and establishing processes and technologies to help achieve those goals. The strategy cycle involves setting goals, implementing measures, initiating change processes, and conducting periodic reviews.
This document analyzes foreign direct investment (FDI) in India. It begins with definitions of FDI and discusses India's changing approach to foreign investment over time. The document then outlines the study's objectives, hypotheses, methodology, and analytical tools. The objectives are to analyze trends, determinants, and impacts of FDI in India. The hypotheses are that FDI flows have increased over 2007-2011 and FDI positively impacts economic growth. Secondary data is used and statistical tools like trend and growth rate analysis are employed. A review of relevant literature on FDI determinants and impacts is also provided. In conclusion, the study aims to provide an understanding of FDI inflows to India from 2007-2011.
This document discusses ethics and leadership in corporate settings. It defines different types of leaders, including managerial leaders, charismatic leaders, transformational leaders, and ethical leaders. It emphasizes that ethical leadership is important and discusses challenges leaders face in balancing responsibilities to stockholders and stakeholders, especially during difficult economic times when decisions can negatively impact jobs and communities. Leaders must make decisions with integrity while considering impacts on all parties.
This document discusses enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems and their importance in modern corporate environments. It begins with an introduction to increasing global competition and the need for businesses to gain competitive advantages. The next sections discuss how ERP systems can help integrate key business functions and manage resources and information flow. As an example, the document analyzes financial data from an Indian graphite company to compare metrics like expenses and production over quarters, demonstrating how ERP data analysis can inform business strategies. Finally, it concludes that effective ERP systems are crucial for companies to adapt, grow, and handle challenges like economic recessions in today's business world.
1) The document discusses renewable energy as an option for sustainable rural development in India, as rural areas often lack access to the power grid.
2) It notes that renewable sources like solar, wind and biomass could play a key role in powering rural villages through off-grid solutions. However, there are also limitations to renewable technologies based on local conditions and weather dependence.
3) The author argues that India needs a national policy for rural electrification that takes a decentralized approach, considers local resource availability, and promotes small-scale renewable manufacturing to enable self-sufficient village energy systems. A generic policy framework and more research is needed to overcome challenges in implementation.
This document discusses the advantages and disadvantages of implementing e-marketing strategies in emerging countries. It begins by defining e-marketing and how it differs from traditional marketing by having fewer geographical boundaries and costs. While e-marketing provides extensive customization possibilities and global reach, it also increases competition and relies heavily on internet infrastructure and technology. The document concludes that e-marketing can be an effective lower-cost alternative to traditional marketing in emerging markets, but cultural differences must be considered to ensure marketing strategies are successfully adapted.
This document discusses the advantages and disadvantages of implementing e-marketing strategies in emerging countries. It begins by defining e-marketing and how it differs from traditional marketing by having fewer geographical boundaries and costs. While e-marketing provides extensive customization possibilities and global reach, it also increases competition and relies heavily on internet technology infrastructure, which is still developing in many emerging markets. The document concludes that a balanced approach combining e-marketing and traditional marketing techniques may be most effective given the opportunities and challenges of marketing in emerging country contexts.
Diverse distribution-study-of-c-14-through-out-the-major-crops-of-punjab-paki...Ijcem Journal
This study measured the distribution of carbon-14 (C-14) in wheat and maize plants that were treated with C-14 labeled malathion pesticide. Greater C-14 content was found in the roots of wheat and leaves of maize. Maize showed a higher absorption of pesticides than wheat, possibly due to its larger fat content and higher transpiration rate. Some C-14 remained in the soil after planting. The study demonstrates how labeled pesticides translocate and accumulate in different plant tissues and soil over time.
A study-of-vertex-edge-coloring-techniques-with-applicationIjcem Journal
This document discusses applications of graph coloring techniques. It begins with an overview of vertex coloring and edge coloring of graphs, including definitions of key terms like chromatic number and edge chromatic number. It then provides several examples of applications of graph coloring, including scheduling problems like job scheduling, aircraft scheduling, and timetabling problems. It describes how these problems can be modeled as graph coloring problems and solved using techniques like precoloring, list coloring, and minimum sum coloring. The document concludes with additional examples of applying graph coloring, such as map coloring for cellular networks.
1) The Koshi River is the largest river in Nepal and originates from Tibet, flowing through Nepal and into India and Bangladesh. It has significant cultural and religious importance for communities along its basin.
2) The document discusses the origins and branches of the Koshi River in detail and describes several important religious sites along the river in Nepal and India that are cultural centers.
3) The culture of the Kirati people and other ethnic groups who have long inhabited the Koshi river basin is closely tied to the river, which many religious texts refer to as the goddess Kausiki Mata.
A review-effect-of-geo-grid-reinforcement-on-soilIjcem Journal
This document reviews research on using geo-grid reinforcement to improve weak soils for construction purposes. It first discusses how expansive soils like black cotton soil undergo failure due to moisture changes, making them poor for construction. Researchers have studied stabilizing such soils using additives or replacing the soil. Geo-grids are another option, as they can improve soil engineering properties through frictional interaction. The document then reviews several studies that found geo-grid reinforcement can increase soil bearing capacity and reduce pavement damage on expansive soils by preventing rutting and lateral movement.
KuberTENes Birthday Bash Guadalajara - K8sGPT first impressionsVictor Morales
K8sGPT is a tool that analyzes and diagnoses Kubernetes clusters. This presentation was used to share the requirements and dependencies to deploy K8sGPT in a local environment.
Introduction- e - waste – definition - sources of e-waste– hazardous substances in e-waste - effects of e-waste on environment and human health- need for e-waste management– e-waste handling rules - waste minimization techniques for managing e-waste – recycling of e-waste - disposal treatment methods of e- waste – mechanism of extraction of precious metal from leaching solution-global Scenario of E-waste – E-waste in India- case studies.
Using recycled concrete aggregates (RCA) for pavements is crucial to achieving sustainability. Implementing RCA for new pavement can minimize carbon footprint, conserve natural resources, reduce harmful emissions, and lower life cycle costs. Compared to natural aggregate (NA), RCA pavement has fewer comprehensive studies and sustainability assessments.
ACEP Magazine edition 4th launched on 05.06.2024Rahul
This document provides information about the third edition of the magazine "Sthapatya" published by the Association of Civil Engineers (Practicing) Aurangabad. It includes messages from current and past presidents of ACEP, memories and photos from past ACEP events, information on life time achievement awards given by ACEP, and a technical article on concrete maintenance, repairs and strengthening. The document highlights activities of ACEP and provides a technical educational article for members.
International Conference on NLP, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning an...gerogepatton
International Conference on NLP, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning and Applications (NLAIM 2024) offers a premier global platform for exchanging insights and findings in the theory, methodology, and applications of NLP, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and their applications. The conference seeks substantial contributions across all key domains of NLP, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and their practical applications, aiming to foster both theoretical advancements and real-world implementations. With a focus on facilitating collaboration between researchers and practitioners from academia and industry, the conference serves as a nexus for sharing the latest developments in the field.
CHINA’S GEO-ECONOMIC OUTREACH IN CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES AND FUTURE PROSPECTjpsjournal1
The rivalry between prominent international actors for dominance over Central Asia's hydrocarbon
reserves and the ancient silk trade route, along with China's diplomatic endeavours in the area, has been
referred to as the "New Great Game." This research centres on the power struggle, considering
geopolitical, geostrategic, and geoeconomic variables. Topics including trade, political hegemony, oil
politics, and conventional and nontraditional security are all explored and explained by the researcher.
Using Mackinder's Heartland, Spykman Rimland, and Hegemonic Stability theories, examines China's role
in Central Asia. This study adheres to the empirical epistemological method and has taken care of
objectivity. This study analyze primary and secondary research documents critically to elaborate role of
china’s geo economic outreach in central Asian countries and its future prospect. China is thriving in trade,
pipeline politics, and winning states, according to this study, thanks to important instruments like the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Belt and Road Economic Initiative. According to this study,
China is seeing significant success in commerce, pipeline politics, and gaining influence on other
governments. This success may be attributed to the effective utilisation of key tools such as the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation and the Belt and Road Economic Initiative.
Harnessing WebAssembly for Real-time Stateless Streaming PipelinesChristina Lin
Traditionally, dealing with real-time data pipelines has involved significant overhead, even for straightforward tasks like data transformation or masking. However, in this talk, we’ll venture into the dynamic realm of WebAssembly (WASM) and discover how it can revolutionize the creation of stateless streaming pipelines within a Kafka (Redpanda) broker. These pipelines are adept at managing low-latency, high-data-volume scenarios.
A SYSTEMATIC RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH FOR SECURING THE SMART IRRIGATION SYSTEMSIJNSA Journal
The smart irrigation system represents an innovative approach to optimize water usage in agricultural and landscaping practices. The integration of cutting-edge technologies, including sensors, actuators, and data analysis, empowers this system to provide accurate monitoring and control of irrigation processes by leveraging real-time environmental conditions. The main objective of a smart irrigation system is to optimize water efficiency, minimize expenses, and foster the adoption of sustainable water management methods. This paper conducts a systematic risk assessment by exploring the key components/assets and their functionalities in the smart irrigation system. The crucial role of sensors in gathering data on soil moisture, weather patterns, and plant well-being is emphasized in this system. These sensors enable intelligent decision-making in irrigation scheduling and water distribution, leading to enhanced water efficiency and sustainable water management practices. Actuators enable automated control of irrigation devices, ensuring precise and targeted water delivery to plants. Additionally, the paper addresses the potential threat and vulnerabilities associated with smart irrigation systems. It discusses limitations of the system, such as power constraints and computational capabilities, and calculates the potential security risks. The paper suggests possible risk treatment methods for effective secure system operation. In conclusion, the paper emphasizes the significant benefits of implementing smart irrigation systems, including improved water conservation, increased crop yield, and reduced environmental impact. Additionally, based on the security analysis conducted, the paper recommends the implementation of countermeasures and security approaches to address vulnerabilities and ensure the integrity and reliability of the system. By incorporating these measures, smart irrigation technology can revolutionize water management practices in agriculture, promoting sustainability, resource efficiency, and safeguarding against potential security threats.
Optimizing Gradle Builds - Gradle DPE Tour Berlin 2024Sinan KOZAK
Sinan from the Delivery Hero mobile infrastructure engineering team shares a deep dive into performance acceleration with Gradle build cache optimizations. Sinan shares their journey into solving complex build-cache problems that affect Gradle builds. By understanding the challenges and solutions found in our journey, we aim to demonstrate the possibilities for faster builds. The case study reveals how overlapping outputs and cache misconfigurations led to significant increases in build times, especially as the project scaled up with numerous modules using Paparazzi tests. The journey from diagnosing to defeating cache issues offers invaluable lessons on maintaining cache integrity without sacrificing functionality.
A review on techniques and modelling methodologies used for checking electrom...nooriasukmaningtyas
The proper function of the integrated circuit (IC) in an inhibiting electromagnetic environment has always been a serious concern throughout the decades of revolution in the world of electronics, from disjunct devices to today’s integrated circuit technology, where billions of transistors are combined on a single chip. The automotive industry and smart vehicles in particular, are confronting design issues such as being prone to electromagnetic interference (EMI). Electronic control devices calculate incorrect outputs because of EMI and sensors give misleading values which can prove fatal in case of automotives. In this paper, the authors have non exhaustively tried to review research work concerned with the investigation of EMI in ICs and prediction of this EMI using various modelling methodologies and measurement setups.
1. ISSN: 2348 9510
International Journal Of Core Engineering & Management(IJCEM)
Volume 1, Issue 3, June 2014
79
Relationship between Stock Index and Macroeconomic Determinants:
A Study of Post Globalization Era
Sangeeta Jauhari
Assistant Professor, AISECT University, Bhopal .
sangeeta.jauhari@gmail.com
H.S. Yadav
Professor, Department of Regional planning & economic growth
Barktullah University, Bhopal
Hanumansinghyadav@gmail.com
Kavita Indrapurkar
Professor, AMITY University
Abstract
The Indian economy with low level of industrialization and surplus money caused by
underdevelopment conditions, the stock market had no footage and could not acquire the
significant position. Economic reforms initiated during 1980’s brought recognizable state to the
stock market by public issues and incentives to private capital, which under the condition of
globalization reached to a stage and provided direction to the macroeconomic variables and vice
versa. The macroeconomic policy opened the capital market for domestic and transnational
capital has not only changed the structure but also the behavior of investors.
The present study is based on secondary data on macroeconomic variables and indices of
stock market. The time series data are transformed to comparative units and correlation
coefficients are applied to measure the degree of relationship.Further to test the causality in the
relationship between sensex and the other macroeconomic determinants the granger causality test
have been applied. The post globalization period demonstrate clear concurrence between the
Sensex indices and the growth in capital formation, GDP, per capita income, investment by FII’s
and other macroeconomic variables considered in the study.
2. ISSN: 2348 9510
International Journal Of Core Engineering & Management(IJCEM)
Volume 1, Issue 3, June 2014
80
INTRODUCTION:
Globalization and financial sector reforms in India have ushered significant structural change in
the financial sector in general and stock market in particular. Until the 1980s, with the focus on
self reliance and import substitution domestic and foreign investment in the portfolio was
limited, but initiation of reform process in early 1990s, under the WTO regime, have allowed the
free play of monopoly capital in the name of competitiveness for industrial licensing, foreign
trade, foreign direct investment, exchange rate and the financial sector of the country. In order to
promote Industrial development in the country through efficient resource mobilization by the
way of corporate securities the concept of stock exchange (a part of capital market), the capital
was allowed to penetrate in the economy in a large number of ways in almost all sectors.
The questions of FDI and industrial development have different facets. One may ask what the
course of FDI flow is and how far it has helped to the industrial production to generate income
and employment in the hands of common masses. A large number of economists designate the
process of globalization as globalization of finance. The question is, does the macroeconomic
variable show any bearing as the major proportion of FDI has come as portfolio investment
through FIIs. A stock market is intricately interwoven currently in the fabric of nation’s
economic life. With the development of the stock market in India in the post reform period
indicating growing participation of institutional investors both foreign and domestic along with
the retail investor. As a result analysis of stock market has come to the force as it is assumed that
through this segment of market the country gets exposed to the outer world. It has been observed
that with the development of capitalistic mode of production in India, the process has widened up
the platform for stock market. The underdeveloped nations also participate in the process and the
result is that there is a considerable increase of participants who has made this market more
popular.The subject matter has acquired importance during recent past and a large number of
studies have been carried out on the investment pattern and behavior of the indices related to the
stock market. Similarly a good number of scholars have also addressed the phenomena and
3. ISSN: 2348 9510
International Journal Of Core Engineering & Management(IJCEM)
Volume 1, Issue 3, June 2014
81
found that there is a concurrence between macroeconomic variable and the sensex indices along
with the general impact of stock market behavior on the economy & vice versa.
Theoretically the relation between stock market and economy in general has two
diversion perspectives. The market is understood to be as speculative market where no
commodity is produced and exchanged therefore it becomes difficult to find any relationship
except that the performance of individual industry leads to the change of the index of the stock
market. But in case of industrial advancement the economic parameters influenced and get
influenced by the market. An equal no. of scholars are of the view that the amount of capital can
be made available to the firms through the domestic and foreign investors for expansion which
indirectly have the impact on economy and therefore, there can be a direct, indirect relation of
stock market indices to the macroeconomic variables. A significant amount of literature exists
that examines the relationship between stock market with macroeconomic and financial variables
for different stock markets. The literature reveals divergent conclusions where several studies
found no relation between them and opposed to this an equal number of studies suggest that there
is bearing and macroeconomic variables determine the movement of indices.
The US stock (Poterba and Summer 1988, and Famma and French 1989) and UK stock
(Macdonald and Power 1991) are partly predictable because they have a market return
tendencies. Similarly, these market also hold the efficient market hypothesis to show strong
linkages between stock market and real economic variables such as GDP, industrial production,
inflation and employment (Famma1981, Famma and Gibbons1982, Summers 1986 and Chen
1991) .Mukherjee and Naka (1995) have founded that there exist relationship between exchange
rate, inflation, money supply, real economic activity, government bond rate and call money rate
in the Japanese stock market. Studies on Taiwan and other Asian countries (Fang and Lee 1990
sand 1995) have suggested that the response of the market is mixed. They conclude that the stock
return volatility respond to information on trade. Chaudhuri and Koo (2001) investigated the
volatility of stock returns in some Asian emerging markets in terms of the volatility of domestic
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and external factors; found that both domestic macroeconomic variables and international
variables have significant impact on stock return volatility. Their empirical results suggest the
presence of a significant contagion effect and integration of capital market in this region. The
results also suggested the role of government in terms of fiscal and monetary policy in smooth
functioning of the stock market is crucial in this region. In Indian context, Bhattacharya and
Mukherjee (2002) studied the nature of the causal relationship between stock prices and macro
aggregates in India by using the methodology proposed by Toda and Yamamoto for the period of
1992-93 to 2000-2001. Their results show that there is no causal relationship between stock price
and macroeconomic variables like money supply, national income and interest rate but there
exists two way causation between stock price and rate of inflation. According to them index of
industrial production lead the stock price. The behavior of stock prices (BSE) in relation to some
key macro economic variables in India during the scam period 1992 was studied by Bhattacharya
and Chakravarty (1994). Their dynamic forecast indicate the behavior of stock prices is unrelated
to key macro variables. Krishna Reddy Chittedi (2007) have done a study on the validity and
growth path of Sensex as well as the quantum of contribution of FII’s in enhancing the validity
of Sensex. The study has described the various milestone achieved by Sensex after the post
globalization period, and also highlighted the reason for the same. In the study it has been
mentioned that as such there is no correlation between FII’s investment and the movement of
Sensex. Dharmendra Singh (2010) has derived a relation especially the causal relation between
stock market index i.e. BSE Sensex and three key macroeconomic variables of India Economy
by using correlation unit root test and Granger Causality test or monthly data from April 1995 to
March 2001. The result have indicated that index of industrial production is the only variable
having bilateral causal relationship with BSE Sensex where as WPI .
The above stated studies carried on establishing relationship between the macroeconomic
variables of the economy and the stock market indices provide the general conclusions that the
studies on developed economies have supported the thesis that there is strong bearing of the
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macro variables on the stock market indices. Contrary to this the stock market in the developing
countries the said relationship has not been undoubtedly confirmed rather the two studies cited
with reference to India has found to be unrelated.
In absence of general disagreement on the relationship of two it seems to be convincing
that in the pre reforms period the macroeconomic variables of the economy were tuned to
planned development and hence the stock market indices not having bearing does not come to be
a surprise. But the post globalization period has tuned the economy domestically to the market
and secondly the Indian economy and financial market has been exposed to the global
economies. Hence the relationship between these two is expected.
Therefore, the present study is an attempt to explore the direction and nature of
relationship between macroeconomic variables like GDP, FII’s investment on year basis, gold
prices, capital formation, manufacturing industrial output, exchange rate, WPI, Turnover of cash
segment, Intrest Rate, savings and Average Sensex (BSE index) movements during post
globalization period .The study is expected to fill the existing gap and to answer the basic
question.
The broad objectives of the study are to:
1) Establish and analyze the relationship between the macro variables and sensex
movements.
2) To understand the Causality between different variables and average sensex.
Data and Methodology:
The study is based on secondary data on macroeconomic variables and indices of stock
market.. The secondary data for economic variables such as GDP,savings, capital formation, FII
investment, gold price bank interest rate ,industrial production and exchange rates are collected
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from various published and semi published sources of RBI, CSO and other agencies for a period
of 1992-2011. The simple and relevant statistics is used to determine the required results. First,
the interval data is converted to the comparative units and then the bivariate correlation has been
used to measure the degree of relationship and the level of explanation to the stock indices. The
test of Granger Causality has been applied to check the directionality.
Hypothesis:
The process of globalization and structural reforms has provided the free hand to the
domestic and transnational capital in the name of attraction to FDI and competitiveness. The new
economic policies have given boost to the monopoly capital both domestic and foreign and
sensex in turn is directly linked with the growth of big industrial houses. The growth of
monopoly capital and GDP show the movements hand in hand. Secondly the earlier studies
carried out on India fail to establish relation between stock market and macroeconomic variables
other that inflation. Therefore the present study under the changed economic policy and structure
put forward the hypothesis that the post globalization period has a strong positive relation
between the macroeconomic variables and the movement of sensex. Secondly, the structural
change in the economic policy is pushing forward the growth of private capital and has created
an environment of stability to the movement of sensex.
Results and Analysis:
Growth of Sensex and Macroeconomic variables:
Growth of the economy and its close association with the BSE index over a period of 1992-2011
further provides the insight into their concurrence as how they have differed in their growth over
time. Linear and exponential growth rates are calculated to examine and compare so as to
identify which of the variables have grown linearly and the other with geometric progression.
The two trends also helped in identifying that what trends fit the best and explain the growth
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pattern. The coefficient of determination (r Square) provides this explanation such that
whichever has higher (r square) proves better fit to the trend. Further the quadratic function is
applied to examine whether the variables over time have shown acceleration or deceleration in
their growths . The negative sign of b2 indicates that the growth has slowed down and the
positive sign shows the progression in the growth with the increasing time.
The growth of sensex shows that there is a positive growth over time and it was more near to
linear growth of 186 points every year with a higher Rsquare =.572.The F value of both linear
and exponential b1 are lower but statistically significant at 5 % levels. The general level of index
also confirms the trend that the indices were lower for quite some time which picked up showing
acceleration in the recent past. The growth rates of GDP at current price, capital formation and
savings show quite similar trends. The b1 values are not only high with linear trend and
exponential functions but are statistically also significant at 1 5 level of significance with ‘f’
value being high. The growth trends and the quadratic functions confirm the understanding that
the three major macroeconomic variables are not only have increased level after the globalization
but shown acceleration during the last twenty years. The quadratic function coefficient b2 are
positive and high show that growth has accelerated.
The prices of gold have been slow in general and have not shown significant growth the b
coefficients are not significant statistically and the quadratic function also o reveal that the lower
growth rates has decelerated during the study period. The b2 coefficient of quadratic function is -
46.57. The growth rate of investment by FII’s shows more trend fitting of linear nature as the b1
is statistically significant and the r square is higher to the level of .894 compared to the
exponential function r square = .55. The linear function expands about 90 % of the variance. This
means the period of post globalization era the foreign investment in the portfolio segment has
increased linearly but the quadratic function shows that it has slowed down over time as the b2
coefficient is negative and high. Trends of bank interest have been reduced during this period but
the reduction in the interest rate is quite marginal. The negative coefficient are not statistically
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significant that shows that there is no significant change in the interest rate but even the marginal
change in the interest rate becomes important for the withdrawal of savings from back and to be
diverted to other forms. WPI has a positive trend means that the consumer goods have become
costlier with increase of prices.
Industrial growth is important to the economy as it constitutes the backbone of sustained growth
in terms not only for domestic consumption but also for exports. The growth rate of Industry
sector has been slow in terms of percent as it has been between 2-4.5. The absolute values of the
industrial output show high positive growth such that the annual linear growth of production has
been to the tune of 3200 crores per year which is also significant statistically at 1 % level of
significance. Despite of the fact that the growth rate of industrial output is positive and
statistically significant the quadratic function clearly indicates that the industrial growth has
decelerated means that the growth has slowed down during study period.
The money supply and BSE stock exchange turnover has shown more linear trends of growth
rather than the geometric one. The linear growth of the two variables is also significant at 1 %
level of significance. The two variables have the acceleration also in the growth rates as revealed
by the quadratic function. Similarly the exchange rate of rupees to dollar has been increasing
showing that the value of rupee has gradually declined and the exchange rate has increased. The
dollar has been costlier 2 rupees per year and this trend has been continued through the period of
the study. The acceleration rate of exchange has not been very high as the b2 coefficient of
quadratic function equals to only .0293.
The growth trends of the sensex and the macroeconomic variables have shown that they have
significant growth over time after the globalization and structural reforms in the economy. The
variables such as GDP,Capital formation ,savings ,turnover of BSE and money supply have
shown high level of acceleration in growth ,whereas other variable are either have the low level
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of acceleration or have decelerated during this period. The below stated table will support the
explanation given for the growth `of sensex and other macroeconomic variables:
Table No. 1
Dependent Mth Rsq. d.f. F Significance B0 B1 B2
Sensex LIN
QUA
EXP
.572
.576
.543
4
3
4
5.34
2.04
4.76
.082
.276
.095
2741.15
2852.36
2785.54
186.517
124.337
.0520
6.0664
GDP LIN
QUA
EXP
.996
.999
.989
4
3
4
926.30
1760.76
351.56
.000
.000
.000
492316
562411
641933
163981
124791
.1303
3823.37
Capital
Formation
LIN
QUA
EXP
.988
.994
.979
4
3
4
337.39
242.10
184.12
.000
.000
.000
78223.1
103661
127819
46697.1
32474.8
.1594
1387.55
Savings LIN
QUA
EXP
.988
.996
.983
4
3
4
324.68
350.74
235.64
.000
.000
.000
74265.5
103187
122106
44492.9
28323.4
.1586
1577.52
Gold Price LIN
QUA
EXP
.079
.980
.085
4
3
4
.35
72.81
.37
.588
.003
.574
4494.44
3640.56
4479.15
34.9188
512.312
.0079
-46.575
FII LIN
QUA
EXP
.894
.944
.550
4
3
4
33.70
25.32
4.90
.004
.013
.091
3718.27
-1853.9
4307.52
3238.10
6353.47
.2681
-303.94
WPI LIN
QUA
EXP
.987
.997
.962
4
3
4
302.62
430.90
101.42
.000
.000
.001
86.5667
80.9054
90.0140
7.9125
11.0777
.0645
-.3088
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Interest LIN
QUA
EXP
.025
.567
.030
4
3
4
.10
1.96
.12
.765
.285
.744
11.2000
9.5094
11.1900
.0500
.8952
.0050
-.0922
Industrial Output LIN
QUA
EXP
.992
.996
.950
4
3
4
502.66
340.02
76.75
.000
.000
.001
110756
96956.0
135546
31975.6
39691.2
.1270
-752.73
Exchange Rate LIN
QUA
EXP
.961
.962
.943
4
3
4
98.68
38.11
66.56
.001
.007
.001
24.7857
25.3228
25.8320
2.1977
1.8975
.0621
.0293
Turnover LIN
QUA
EXP
.786
.990
.833
4
3
4
14.67
141.49
19.89
.019
.001
.011
-
246333
192891
24676.7
118761
-
126805
.3701
23957.7
Money Supply LIN
QUA
EXP
.965
1.00
1.00
4
3
4
110.88
3122.37
11451.3
.000
.000
.000
161531
314075
293259
111345
26058.8
.1586
8320.57
The Relationship between Index and Macroeconomic variables: -
The Pearson coefficient of correlation of product moment was calculated to share the degree and
direction of relationship among the BSE indices and the Macro economic variables of India. It is
expected from the study that the correlation coefficient of BSE index is supposed to be positive
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encase the index has bearing on its behavior over time. The macroeconomics variables influence
the variability of the BSE Sensex index directly because it only the soundness of macroeconomic
variables provide the base at which the individuals and institutions participate in the trading and
increase in these economic indices leads to the growth of the stock market in terms of growth in
the index of the shares.
The zero order correlation coefficient given in the further stated in Table no –Correlation Matrix
Shows that, the SENSEX of BSE has a very high correlation coefficient almost with all the
macro economics indicators. The average SENSEX shows the highest correlation coefficient
with GDP (r=0.95), capital formation (r=0.97), Savings (r=0.97) and industrial output (r=0.95).
All the correlation coefficients are significant at 1 percent level of significance. This high
relationship signifies that the higher level of growth of GDP reflect higher level of capital
formation and saving and is greatly related by industrial growth, show the soundness of the
economy. Once the general economic indicators are strong they lead to the phenomena that the
SENSEX behaves positively. The strong industrial base always gets reflected in the share prices
in the industries particularly those which are included in the determination SENSEX indices of
country. In the present case they show a complete bearing an the SENSEX. The growth of FII’s
investment also has the positive impact on the SENSEX as the coefficient is 0.91 which is also
significant at 1 percent level of significance. The gold price and the bank interest are the two
indicators which compete with the savings with the share market. The lowering of gold prices
and bank interest must provide the increasing trend for the savings in the share market. The
negative and significant correlation at 5 percent level of significance clearly indicates that the
SENSEX has inverse relation with bank interest rate (-) 0.22 but the relationship with gold price
is showing a positive and significant correlation at 1 percent level of significance. This is
because the gold price has also increased slowly along with the SENSEX of BSE.
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Money
supply
.94
1.00
.99 .99 .97 .92 .97 -.47 .99 .60 .96 1.00
** 1% level of significance
*5% level of significance
The correlation coefficient among the macro economics variables themselves is very high and
significant for all the variables. This high correlation coefficient is the indication that all the
parameters of the economics are integrated with each other and the growth of one variable is
closely associated with other variables. The GDP and other variables such as capital for nation,
industrial output and saving have strengthened serving this period and almost all the variables
have grown very fast having very close association with each other. This high and strong
relationship has indicates that the post globalization period particularly after the structural
reforms and policies towards foreign direct investment have provided the multiplier effect to the
overall development of the economy resulting into the soundness of the macro economics
variables. A large number of economist see that the growing macro economics parameters of the
economy will trick down to the other areas and lower income group and will benefit the country
as a whole and the wellbeing of the massed or the other hand it is also been argued that although
the economy at the macro level has been growing but this is resulting into the growing regional
and interpersonal disparities and the problems of inflation poverty and unemployment are not
addressed as much they deserve. The economy has grown a balanced manner taking care of the
other entire sector than only that of gross domestic product.
Table No.3 – Results of Causality by Granger Causality Test
Null Hypothesis No. of Lags F statistics P value
GDP does not granger
cause Average Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
GDP
2
2
2.19
.00
.15
.99
GDP does not granger
cause Average Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
GDP
4
4
4.47**
.30
.04
.86
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GDP does not granger
cause Average Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
GDP
5
5
37.05*
1.73
.00
.30
Null Hypothesis No. of Lags F statistics P value
Capital Formation
does not granger
cause average Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
capital formation
2
2
11.07*
1.49
.00
.26
Capital Formation
does not granger
cause average Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
capital formation
4
4
11.10*
.48
.00
.74
Capital Formation
does not granger
cause average Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
capital formation
5
5
9.12**
.25
.04
.91
Null Hypothesis No. of Lags F statistics P value
Savings does not
granger cause average
Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
2
2
9.01*
3.95
.00
.35
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Savings
Savings does not
granger cause average
Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
Savings
4
4
10.65*
.16
.00
.94
Savings does not
granger cause average
Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
Savings
5
5
6.42***
.04
.07
.99
Null Hypothesis No. of Lags F statistics P value
Gold Price does not
granger cause average
Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
Gold Price
2
2
13.05*
1.13
.00
.35
Gold Price does not
granger cause average
Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
Gold Price
4
4
11.60*
.48
.00
.74
Gold Price does not
granger cause average
Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
Gold Price
5
5
7.29
1.05
.06
.5
Null Hypothesis No. of Lags F statistics P value
FII does not granger 2 1.35 .29
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cause average Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause FII
2 .16 .85
FII does not granger
cause average Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause FII
4
4
29.24*
3.80**
.00
.05
FII does not granger
cause average Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause FII
5
5
20.1*
3.16
.00
.14
Null Hypothesis No. of Lags F statistics P value
WPI does not granger
cause average Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
WPI
2
2
1.88
.82
.19
.45
WPI does not granger
cause average Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
WPI
4
4
1.83
18.2*
.22
.00
WPI does not granger
cause average Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
WPI
5
5
1.53
2.68
.35
.17
Null Hypothesis No. of Lags F statistics P value
Intrest Rate does not
granger cause average
Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
Intrest rate
2
2
3.07***
.19
.08
.82
Intrest Rate does not
granger cause average
4 3.14*** .08
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Sensex 4 .30 .86
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
Intrest rate
5
5
2.72
.29
.17
.89
Null Hypothesis No. of Lags F statistics P value
Industrial output does
not granger cause
average Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
Industrial output
2
2
5.26**
1.16
.02
.34
Industrial output does
not granger cause
average Sensex
4
4
2.19
2.66
.18
.13
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
Industrial output
5
5
3.09
6.44***
.19
.07
Null Hypothesis No. of Lags F statistics P value
Exchange Rate does
not granger cause
average Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
exchange Rate
2
2
2.94***
3.99**
.08
.04
Exchange Rate does
not granger cause
average Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
exchange Rate
4
4
4.23**
10.11*
.04
.00
Exchange Rate does
not granger cause
average Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
5
5
7.51**
8.38**
.03
.03
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exchange Rate
Null Hypothesis No. of Lags F statistics P value
Turnover of Cash
segment does not
granger cause average
Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
turnover of Cash
Segment
2
2
7.19*
.59
.00
.56
Turnover of Cash
segment does not
granger cause average
Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
turnover of Cash
Segment
4
4
1.21
.15
.42
.94
Turnover of Cash
segment does not
granger cause average
Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
turnover of Cash
Segment
5
5
3.08
24.8
.40
.15
Null Hypothesis No. of Lags F statistics P value
Money Supply does
not granger cause
average Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
Money Supply
2
2
4.35**
6.36***
.03
.01
Money Supply does
not granger cause
average Sensex
4
4
2.91
3.26***
.11
.09
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Average Sensex does
not granger cause
Money Supply
Money Supply does
not granger cause
average Sensex
Average Sensex does
not granger cause
Money Supply
5
5
2.10
1.90
.28
.31
*1 %,**5% *** 10%
After applying the relevant test for checking the causality between average sensex value and
other macroeconomic variables, the results have been drawn. The results stated in the above
mentioned tables clearly depicts that the null hypothesis of Granger Causality can’t be reject
even at the level of 5 lags from average sensex to GDP,capital formation ,savings, gold price
,interest rate ,Industrial output ,turnover of cash segment whereas it can be rejected from GDP to
Average sensex at 5 %level of significance, capital formation to Average sensex at 5 % level of
significance ,savings to average sensex at 1% level of significance ,gold price to Average sensex
at 1 % level of significance ,Interest rate to average sensex at 10 % level of significance and
industrial output to average sensex at 5 % level of significance. It is evident from the results that
the causality between average sensex and the variables like GDP, capital formation, savings,
gold price, Intrest rate, and Industrial output is unidirectional. The rationale behind these findings
is that all these variables are the indicators of economic movements in the country. Any change
in the policy framework in production levels has a direct bearing on the composition of these
variables. The sensex is a comprehensive index of the share prices of the major thirty companies
out of the listed companies in the Bombay stock exchange on the basis of their capitalization.
This index is considered as a benchmark to reflect the market the market movements on a whole
term basis. A fluctuation or alteration in the macroeconomic determinants produce a
considerable effect on the business environment across the corporate society and which leads to
make the alteration in the capital structure composition on long term basis. The fluctuations in
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the variables under study have a drive force to make the alteration in the movement of index as
these are the predictors to foresee the changes in the business environment. Any increase or
decrease in the level of GDP level will certainly have a direct bearing on capital levels and
saving levels among the society which in turn will have a significant bearing on the movement of
index (average sensex). The changes in the global economy alter the interest rate levels in the
country which again leads to produce changes in the composition of average sensex. Apart from
this some variables like FII, Exchange rate and money supply have a bidirectional relationship
with average sensex …….. levels of significance.FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investor) are mainly
recognized as portfolio investors. The main aim of these institutions is to invest money in the
market to get the immediate returns in the most profitable way. These are considered as one of
the major driving force of the Indian stock market. These institutions produce a considerable
fluctuation in the composition of the index. On the other hand the fluctuation in the sensex
movements has also a considerable bearing on the psychology of these institutional investors.
The trends in the movement of the index give a base point to these institutions to frame their
decisions regarding the investment. Both the variables can be taken as predictors of each other to
foresee the changes. As the money invested I the Indian stock market is at the global level the
fluctuations in the values of currency against the foreign currency will certainly have a strong
bearing on the fluctuations in the index. The influence of the index is although very minute on
the movements in the exchange rate ,but it can be taken as a predictor to foresee the fluctuations
in the exchange rate levels of the currency as it is indirectly leads to the flow of money in the
market. To regulate the liquidity in the market the money supply is being regulated by the apex
body of our country i.e. RBI. The stock market is the most liquid market. Policies have been
framed to regulate the money supply in the economy which in turn regulates the liquidity in the
market and thus it affects the trends of the sensex movements. On the other side the investment
patterns, level of capital composition in the market have a drive on the flow of money in the
market
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Conclusion:
The behavior of the Indian stock market has been studied by large number of scholars
and found that the macroeconomic variables are not having Strong bearing except that of
inflation .The present study based on correlation reveals that the macroeconomic variables like
GDP, savings, capital formation, Gold price, industrial output, Money supply,FII,Exchange rate
,WPI turnover of cash segment ,interest rate have concurrence with the variability of the sensex
index during post globalization period. Further it is also clear that the causation in this
relationship is one way with the maximum variables but with certain variables like money
supply, exchange rate and FIIs shows the bidirectional relationship with the sensex.
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