This document proposes a School Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) toolkit to help quantify disaster risk for schools. It aims to measure the degree of threat/risk to schools over time using a "Risk Index" scale. The toolkit would identify hazards, define vulnerability and capacity indicators, assign weights, and calculate hazard-specific and multi-hazard risk indexes. It could help prioritize high-risk schools for intervention and track changes from DRR activities. While useful, it is noted that human observation may better analyze qualitative risk factors than an algorithm alone.

1. Quantifying Disaster Risk
…………… A school DRR toolkit
for Comprehensive School Safety Programme
Ranjan Praharaj,
Development Professional,
Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
Praharaj.ranjan@gmail.com
Cell: +91 9439862467

2. The Situation
 Children are most vulnerable to disasters than others in the community
 As per the disaster history, be it India or aboard, children are most
sufferers in any disaster
 They spend a major portion of time in a day in schools (to school, in school
& back to home)
While,
 Schools in India are located in seismic zones between II – V or, they are
located in different flooding, cyclone and civil unrest zones
 Epidemics, explosions, accident, building distress etc. also poses treat to
several schools
 Fire triggering as well as fire enhancing materials are present in most of the
schools.
Cont……

3. The Situation
 The number and composition of student and staff of each school varies as
per age group, gender and presence of differently able population.
 The financial value of material resources varies from school to school and
so also its exposure to hazards, depending upon the structural and non-
structural setups and place where the materials are located..
 Some have safe havens/safe shelters and some do not
 Some have communication systems and some do not
 Some have better linkages with service providers and some do not
 Some have stockpiles and some do not
 Some have better WASH facilities and some do not
 Some have buildings as per building code and some do not
 Some have Disaster Preparedness skills and practices and some do not
???……..We need safe schools. Safety is the right of every child

4. The Need
 In the prevailing disaster scenario of India, many Schools are
“at Risk” from a single or from multiple hazards.
 All of them need assistance in one or other forms.
 The “degree of risk” varies from school to school based on,
 its geographical location, geological setup of the
location,
 vulnerable elements (human as well as material) in
the school, and
 the existing capacity of the school to cope with the
adverse effect of the probable disasters.
 With scarce resource and time limit most of the times the aid
agencies, humanitarian organizations and Government as well
need answer to the question “where and how to start with?”.
Cont……

5. The Need
 Aid agencies, Humanitarian organizations and govt. as well have
already implemented school DRR programme in some of the
schools.
But, there is no clear answer to the questions;
What was the need, how did we intervene?
What changes we brought/What is the result?
Whether the intervention brought equal changes in all
the schools where we intervene? If no, why.
What was our objective and where are we now?
Every one need answer to the question, “how to track the changes”?
Cont……

6. The Need
 Sometimes, school management is not ready to be convinced that
their school is exposed to risk.
 School community need a short, simple and easy tool with first hand
information to understand their vulnerability and lacks and gaps in
capacity.
 School community need guidance/suggestions at each step and on
regular basis to increase their capacity and keep up some practice
on regular basis.
 There is a need to develop a competitive mentality among school
management to justify that their school is much safer.

7. About the School DRR Toolkit
 The toolkit is an algorithmic model, which can measure and present
the degree of threat/risk to a school at different point of time in
numerical value (technically referred to as the “Risk Index”) with a
predefined scale of measurement.
 Can measure degree of risk to human as well as material elements
in a school, be it hazard specific or of combination of different
hazards (natural as well as human-made).
 Can be used at different point of time of a project cycle by the
implementing agency for initial risk assessment, decision making,
programme planning, monitoring and evaluation.
 Can guide individual schools to keep track on the degree of risk on
regular basis and provide suggestion to take appropriate measures
to reduce the risk.
 Can be used as a tool for monitoring school DRR programme and
safety audit of the schools both of line and on line by implementing
agency(GO/NGO).

8. Steps Followed
Auto Calculation of
Risk Index
Data Feeding
Data Collection
Finalization of
Survey Format
Algorithm
Development
Weight Assignment
Grouping & Ranking
Indicator Selection
Hazard
Identification

9. The Approach
 Identify the common hazards posing a threat to the schools.
 Define indicators to measure hazard, vulnerability and required
capacity for each of the identified hazards.
 In case of multiple variables for a single indicator, form groups
and assign ranks.
 Assign weights to indicators according to importance
 Determine an Algorithm
 Gather data and feed into the toolkit.
 Calculate Risk Index(hazard specific or of multi hazard)
For disaster managers - Use the finding for planning , decision
making, monitoring and evaluation.
For individual school – Get the suggestions to minimize the risk
(hazard specific as well as multi hazard).

10. Criteria for Selection of Indicators
 Support concept
 Verifiable
 Data availability and quality
 Simplicity
 Quantitativeness
 Recognition

11. Equation for Calculation of Risk Index
Rt = ∑ Hi p(Hi) (ν c)
Where,
Rt = Total Risk
Hi = Hazard Intensity
p(H) = Probability of Hazard
v = Vulnerability
c = Capacity

12. The Risk Index Algorithm
MHRI
NHRI HMHRI
MRI-NH1 HRI-HMH1 MRI-HMH1
HRI-NH1
HRI-NH2 NHHRI NHMRI MRI-NH2 HRI-HMH2 HMHHRI HMHMRI MRI-HMH2
HRI-HMHn MRI-HMHn
HRI-NHn MRI-NHn
NB:
MHRI: Multi Hazard Risk Index, NHRI: Natural Hazard Risk Index, HMHRI: Human Made Hazard Risk Index,
NHHRI: Natural Hazard Human Risk Index, NHMRI: Natural Hazard Material Risk Index, HMHHRI: Human Made
Hazard Human Risk Index, HMHMRI: Human Made Hazard Material Risk Index, HRI: Human Risk Index, MRI:
Material Risk Index, NH: Natural Hazard, HMH: Human Made Hazard.

13. Use of School DRR Tool Kit (for individual school)
The safer school virtuous circle
Suggestions for
Risk Reduction
Risk Index DRR Program
Calculation Customization
Enhanced Capacity
More Safer School
Reduced Risk
Data DRR Activities
Feeding Implementation
Data
Collection

14. Use of School DRR Tool Kit
(for DRR Managers, Implementing Agencies, Aid Agencies)
 Selection of highest at/high risk schools for intervention (as per available
budget, time and manpower availability)
 Hazard Specific Selection of High Risk Schools (if mandate is to concentrate
for specific hazard/s)
 Geographical area specific selection of High Risk Schools (if mandate is to
concentrate in specific geographical location/s)
 Identification of lack and gap in capacity of high risk schools to respond to
disasters
 Derive suggestion (pre loaded) for minimizing risk index
 Develop appropriate school safety programme
Customize school specific interventions based on identified lacks and gaps in
capacity
 Track on the progress of implementation
 Make regular assessment / evaluation by updating (on line/off line) school
specific information and identify gaps in implementation
 Make a better comparison of the pre and post project risk index.

15. Example
Complete Package of the Tool Kit & its User’s
Manual An Example
is under Preparation

16. Comments
 Human observation is better to make a detailed risk analysis (if
number of schools is less) than any algorithmic model.
 Lack of scope for the qualitative indicators like;
 Sense of the school community.
 Core beliefs and values.
 Feelings and attachment of the school community etc.
 Behavioral and attitudinal aspects