Day 1 of 5 (0600 Monday 28th July to 0600 Tuesday 29th July)

1. General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
It should be dry through the day with some sunny spells. However, there is a slight chance of an isolated shower or two developing. It will should remain dry overnight with variable, but often large amounts of cloud. There may be a few showery outbreaks of rain after midnight.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
There may be some sunny intervals over the mainland, but the Western Isles are expected to have a fairly cloudy day. Some outbreaks of drizzle or light rain are possible during the day. Cloud will become more extensive overnight and outbreaks of light rain will affect some
areas.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
Becoming rather cloudy at times during the day but it should remain dry. Generally cloudy overnight with some outbreaks of rain, particularly across NE Caithness and Orkney after midnight.
Synoptic Discussion and Confidence
A ridge of high pressure will bring generally dry weather to most areas through the day. Overnight, a front will arrive from the west bringing outbreaks of rain to western and central areas, perhaps reaching eastern parts by dawn. High confidence.
Upland Forecast
Rainfall totals may be a little higher on high ground in the west overnight.
Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust
10 W 15 5 S 10 10 S 10 10 W 15 10 W 15 10 W 15 10 W 15 10 W 15 10 W 10
10 W 15 5 S 15 10 SW 20 10 W 20 10 SW 20 10 W 20 10 SW 20 10 W 15 10 SW 15
10 SW 15 5 NW 10 10 W 15 10 S 15 10 SW 20 10 SW 15 10 W 25 10 S 15 10 SW 10
15 W 20 10 W 10 15 W 15 10 W 25 15 SW 25 10 W 20 15 W 25 15 W 15 15 SW 20
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
Area Perth & Angus Aberdeenshire Moray Firth Argyll & West Highland NW Highland & Skye Central Highlands Western Isles Orkney & NE Caithness Shetland Area
Risk (RAG) Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Risk (RAG)
Temp
(Max/Min)
23 12 21 13 22 14 21 12 21 12 22 12 18 14 18 13 18 13
Temp
(Max/Min)
Wind Wind
06h-12h 06h-12h
12h-18h 12h-18h
18h-00h 18h-00h
00h-06h 00h-06h
Rain (mm) Rain (mm)
06h-18h 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 06h-18h
18h-06h 0 - 1.0 0 - 1.0 0 - 1.0 0.5 - 1.3 0.6 - 1.7 0 - 0 0.8 - 1.9 0.2 - 1.6 0 - 0.9 18h-06h
Snow/Line
Icing
Snow/Line
Icing
06h-18h 06h-18h
18h-06h 18h-06h
Lightning Lightning
06h-18h 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 06h-18h
18h-06h 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 18h-06h
Scheduled Utilities Forecast - SHEPD (North) - Monday 28 Jul 2014
Day 1 of 5 (0600 Monday 28th July to 0600 Tuesday 29th July)

2. General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
The should be some sunny spells during the day, but it will become cloudy at times with the chance of a few fairly weel scattered showers. Mainly dry overnight with variable cloud cover.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Rather cloudy at first with some outbreaks of drizzle and light rain. Sunny spells developing through the day but with the chance of a few showers. Further showers are possible overnight. Winds will increase through the day with gusts of 40-45mph possible across the Western
Isles and the far northwest of Scotland during the afternoon and evening. Winds should ease after midnight.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
A rather cloudy start to the day with the chance of some rain in places. Some sunny spells developing during the day but there will also be the chance of showers. Further showers likely overnight with winds increasing, especially after midnight.
Synoptic Discussion and Confidence
A low pressure system will run eastwards across the Faeroe Islands on Tuesday. This system will bring brisk winds to the northwest of Scotland during the afternoon and evening and to the Northern Isles overnight. Fronts associated with the low pressure system will bring
outbreaks of rain to many places. Medium to high confidence.
Upland Forecast
Rainfall totals will be a little higher over high ground in western and northwestern Scotland. Winds are also likely to be a bit stronger, perhaps gusting to around 45mph.
Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust
15 W 30 10 W 20 15 W 30 15 W 30 15 W 35 15 W 30 15 W 35 20 W 25 20 SW 25
15 SW 30 10 W 20 15 W 30 15 W 30 15 SW 35 15 SW 30 15 W 40 20 SW 30 20 SW 30
10 SW 30 5 SW 20 15 SW 25 10 SW 30 15 SW 40 10 SW 30 15 W 35 25 SW 30 20 SW 30
15 W 30 15 W 15 20 W 25 10 W 25 20 W 40 15 W 30 15 W 30 25 W 35 25 SW 40
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
Area Perth & Angus Aberdeenshire Moray Firth Argyll & West Highland NW Highland & Skye Central Highlands Western Isles Orkney & NE Caithness Shetland Area
Risk (RAG) Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Risk (RAG)
Temp
(Max/Min)
21 11 21 11 18 13 17 11 17 12 21 10 17 13 18 13 17 12
Temp
(Max/Min)
Wind Wind
06h-12h 06h-12h
12h-18h 12h-18h
18h-00h 18h-00h
00h-06h 00h-06h
Rain (mm) Rain (mm)
06h-18h 0 - 0.6 0 - 1.4 0 - 0.7 0.2 - 1.3 1.1 - 2.2 0.1 - 1.1 1.1 - 2.4 0.4 - 1.1 0 - 1.1 06h-18h
18h-06h 0 - 0 0 - 0.1 0 - 0 1.6 - 4.4 3.4 - 7.0 1.1 - 3.7 1.7 - 3.7 0.7 - 2.2 1.2 - 3.5 18h-06h
Snow/Line
Icing
Snow/Line
Icing
06h-18h 06h-18h
18h-06h 18h-06h
Lightning Lightning
06h-18h 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 06h-18h
18h-06h 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 18h-06h
Day 2 of 5 (0600 Tuesday 29th July to 0600 Wednesday 30th July)

3. General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
A breezy day of sunny spells and scattered showers. Dry overnight with lighter winds
and clear periods.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Some sunny intervals during the day, but with showers expected to feed in from the
west for much of the day. Showers should become more isolated during the evening
but some showers are likely overnight. Breezy at first but winds easing through the
course of the day.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
Variable cloud cover and scattered showers through the day. Showers should mostly
clear overnight with some clear intervals developing. Windy at first but winds easing
during the day and overnight.
General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
Mainly dry at first but scattered showers developing during the day. Some of these
showers will be heavy and there will be a risk of infrequent lightning strikes. The
showers should ease later but some of them will continue into the night.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Showers will be isolated at first but will become more widespread through the day.
Some heavy showers are likely and there will be the risk of infrequent lightning
strikes. Showers may continue overnight.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
Mainly dry at first but there will be the chance of showers across NE Caithness and
Orkney during the day. Some of these showers could be heavy with a risk of very
infrequent lightning strikes. Chance of further showers overnight. Shetland should
remain largely dry throughout.
General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
There will be the chance of showers during the day, some of these potentially heavy
with the risk of very infrequent lightning strikes. Further showers possible overnight.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Showers are possible throughout the day and these may be slow moving, giving
heavy rain in places. There will also be a risk of very infrequent lightning strikes.
Scattered showers are also possible overnight.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
There will be the risk of showers through much of the day, some of these potentially
heavy with the risk of very infrequent lightning strikes. Showers may continue
overnight.
Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust
25 SW 35 25 W 40 25 W 40 20 SW 30 20 SW 30 20 NE 25 15 S 25 20 NE 35 20 NE 35
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
Day 3 of 5 (0600 Wednesday 30th July to 0600 Thursday 31st July) Day 4 of 5 (0600 Thursday 31st July to 0600 Friday 1st August) Day 5 of 5 (0600 Friday 1st August to 0600 Saturday 2nd August)
Area
Day Three Day Four Day Five
Perth, Angus, Aberdeen,
Moray Firth
Western Isles, NW & Cent
Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Shetland, Orkney, NE
Caithness
Perth, Angus, Aberdeen,
Moray Firth
Western Isles, NW & Cent
Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Shetland, Orkney, NE
Caithness
Perth, Angus, Aberdeen,
Moray Firth
Western Isles, NW & Cent
Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Shetland, Orkney, NE
Caithness
Risk
(RAG)
Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green
Temp
(Max/Min)
21 11 21 10 17 11 19 11 19 10 17 10 18 10 18 9 16 11
Wind
24 hours
Rain (mm) 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total
24 hours 0 - 2.5 0 - 8 0 - 2 2 - 12 3 - 11 2 - 8 2 - 7 4 - 14 2 - 10
Snow/Line
Icing
24 hours
Lightning
24 hours 3 3 3 2C 2C 2D 2D 2D 2D
Days 6 to 10 (0600 Saturday 2nd August to 0600 Thursday 7th August)
Outlook
The unsettled weather is expected to continue through the weekend and into the start of next week. Further showers or longer spells of rain are possible, although there should be some drier and sunnier/clearer periods too. There are some indications of less unsettled weather
for the second half of next week.

4. Overall risk of disruption
Severe risk Red
Significant risk Amber
No risk Green
The above reflects the worst case of any of the following
Wind Gusts (mph) - 1st November - 31st March
S, SW, W & NW
Islands 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
West Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
East Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
N, NE, E & SE
Islands 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
West Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
East Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Wind Gusts (mph) - 1st April - 31st October
S, SW, W & NW
Islands 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
West Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
East Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
N, NE, E & SE
Islands 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
West Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
East Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Rainfall (mm)
12 hr (days 1 and 2) 24 hr (days 3 to 5)
>75 >100
>50 >50
<=50 <=50
Snowfall (cm)
12 hr (days 1 and 2) 24 hr (days 3 to 5)
if 24hr total >=10 >=5 >=10
>1 >=5
<=1 <5
if 24hr total >=5 >1
<=1
if 24hr total <5 any amount
Line icing
12 hr (days 1 and 2) 24 hr (days 3 to 5)
Severe Severe
other 12hr > Nil Moderate Moderate
other 12hr = Nil Moderate Slight
Slight Nil
Nil
Lightning risk and disruption colour code matrix

5. Islands Shetland; Orkney & NE Caithness; Western Isles; Cent. Highlands
West Mainland NW Highlands & Skye; Argyll & West
East Mainland Moray Firth; Aberdeenshire; Perth & Angus
Risk level 1 A B C D
Risk level 2 A B C D
Risk level 3 A B C D
Risk level 4 A B C D
Lightning Risk Categories
1 - Lightning will almost certainly occur across the region, or is occurring
2 - Lightning is likely across the region
3 - Lightning is unlikely across the region, although convective activity or an active front is forecast
4 - Lightning is not expected to occur across the region
Lightning Intensity Index
A - Very frequent lightning strikes
B - Frequent lightning strikes
C - Infrequent lightning strikes
D - Very infrequent lightning strikes
All Temperatures in °C
All Wind speeds in MPH