- Early mist and fog will clear to leave a dry day with sunny spells across Perth, Angus, Aberdeen and Moray Firth. It will become cloudy with patchy rain in the Western Isles, NW and Central Highlands, and Argyll. Shetland, Orkney and NE Caithness will see a mix of cloud and sunny spells. - Overnight, cloud will build in western areas bringing patchy rain to the northwest. It will stay dry elsewhere with clear spells. - Low pressure will move southwards bringing showery rain that will clear eastwards through the day, leaving generally settled weather. However, uncertainty remains around the exact track of heaviest showers.

1. General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
Any early rain in the far north-east will clear to leave sunny spells and scattered showers throughout the day. Some of the showers could be locally heavy in the west with a small risk of lightning. Feeling cooler than recently. It will become dry overnight with plenty of clear
spells. Winds will be light so widespread mist and fog is expected.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
It will be a cooler day with showers or longer spells of rain, some heavy with the risk of thunder. There will be a small chance that the lightning could become locally frequent in western parts of Argyll and West Highlands. The showery rain will clear southwards in the evening
to leave it dry for much of the night with clear spells. Mist and fog patches will develop during the early hours.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
Apart from the odd shower, it will be largely dry with a fair amount of cloud over Shetland but sunny spells elsewhere. Staying mainly dry overnight but an isolated shower cannot be ruled out.
Synoptic Discussion and Confidence
Low pressure across western Scotland will move southwards through the day. A cold front across north-eastern areas bringing showery rain will clear eastwards this morning. Meanwhile a wrap around occlusion will move into western Scotland with some heavy showery rain
and the risk of thunder. This showery rain is expected to ease as it spreads southwards through the day into northern England, Northern Ireland and Wales towards evening. Generally high confidence but the exact track of the heaviest showers and speed of the showery rain
spreading southwards is still slightly uncertain.
Upland Forecast
No significant differences to lowland forecast.
Scheduled Utilities Forecast - SHEPD (North) - Sunday 27 Jul 2014
Day 1 of 5 (0600 Sunday 27th July to 0600 Monday 28th July)

2. Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust
10 NE 20 10 SE 15 15 SW 25 10 SW 25 10 NE 25 10 SW 25 10 N 20 5 E 10 10 NE 10
10 NE 20 10 E 15 10 SE 25 10 N 20 10 N 20 10 NE 20 10 N 20 5 N 15 10 N 10
5 W 15 5 NW 15 10 N 15 5 N 15 10 W 15 5 N 15 5 NW 15 10 NW 10 10 N 10
5 NW 10 10 NW 15 10 N 10 5 NE 10 10 NW 10 5 N 10 5 NW 10 10 W 10 10 N 10
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
Area Perth & Angus Aberdeenshire Moray Firth Argyll & West Highland NW Highland & Skye Central Highlands Western Isles Orkney & NE Caithness Shetland Area
Risk (RAG) Green Green Green Amber Green Green Green Green Green Risk (RAG)
Temp
(Max/Min)
19 11 19 12 18 13 19 9 18 10 19 9 18 14 16 13 18 12
Temp
(Max/Min)
Wind Wind
06h-12h 06h-12h
12h-18h 12h-18h
18h-00h 18h-00h
00h-06h 00h-06h
Rain (mm) Rain (mm)
06h-18h 2.0 - 4.1 2.1 - 4.7 0.9 - 1.9 4.0 - 9.0 0.7 - 2.7 2.8 - 7.0 0.8 - 2.3 0.4 - 1.1 0.1 - 1.8 06h-18h
18h-06h 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0.6 - 1.5 1.1 - 3.1 18h-06h
Snow/Line
Icing
Snow/Line
Icing
06h-18h 06h-18h
18h-06h 18h-06h
Lightning Lightning
06h-18h 3 3 2C 2B 2C 2C 3 3 3 06h-18h
18h-06h 3 3 2C 2C 2C 2C 4 3 3 18h-06h

3. General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
Early mist and fog will clear to leave a dry day with sunny spells. Staying dry overnight with clear spells.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
It will be a largely dry day, once early mist and fog lifts with sunny spells and variable cloud. Cloud will build from the west overnight bringing patchy rain to the north-west.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
Dry with a good deal of cloud at times, but some sunny spells, especially over Orkney and NE Caithness. Staying dry but turning increasingly cloudy.
Synoptic Discussion and Confidence
There will be a ridge of high pressure pushing in leading to a mainly dry and settled day. However, a weak occluded front will try to move into north-western areas overnight bringing some patchy rain. Relatively high confidence.
Upland Forecast
No significant differences to lowland forecast.
Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust
5 W 10 10 NW 20 10 S 15 10 W 15 10 NW 15 5 W 10 10 W 15 10 W 15 5 NE 10
10 W 15 5 E 20 10 SW 20 10 W 20 10 SW 20 10 W 20 10 SW 15 10 W 15 5 S 5
5 SW 15 5 S 10 10 W 15 10 W 15 10 SW 20 5 SW 15 10 W 20 10 SW 15 10 SW 10
15 W 15 10 W 10 15 W 15 10 W 15 15 W 25 10 W 15 15 W 25 15 W 15 15 SW 15
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
Area Perth & Angus Aberdeenshire Moray Firth Argyll & West Highland NW Highland & Skye Central Highlands Western Isles Orkney & NE Caithness Shetland Area
Risk (RAG) Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Risk (RAG)
Temp
(Max/Min)
23 13 20 13 20 13 22 12 19 12 22 12 18 14 17 12 17 12
Temp
(Max/Min)
Wind Wind
06h-12h 06h-12h
12h-18h 12h-18h
18h-00h 18h-00h
00h-06h 00h-06h
Rain (mm) Rain (mm)
06h-18h 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 06h-18h
18h-06h 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0.3 - 1.8 0.8 - 1.9 0 - 0 1.2 - 2.4 0 - 0 0 - 0 18h-06h
Snow/Line
Icing
Snow/Line
Icing
06h-18h 06h-18h
18h-06h 18h-06h
Lightning Lightning
06h-18h 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 06h-18h
18h-06h 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 4 4 18h-06h
Day 2 of 5 (0600 Monday 28th July to 0600 Tuesday 29th July)

4. General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
It will turn rather cloudy with a little patchy rain or drizzle, but it will become drier later
in the afternoon. Mainly dry over with clear spells for a time but cloud will build in the
west.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
A fair amount of cloud with patchy rain. Staying mostly cloudy overnight with more
persistent rain moving from the west later in the night.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
Rather cloudy with some patchy rain, but drier with sunny spells later. Variable cloud
overnight but staying mainly dry.
General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
Rather cloudy at first but sunny spells developing with a few scattered showers. Most
of the showers will ease away to leave a dry night with variable cloud.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
A good deal of cloud at times with scattered showers, some locally heavy in the west.
There will continue to be showers around overnight but they will become lighter and
confined to the west.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
Variable amounts of cloud with scattered showers. The showers will become lighter
and less frequent overnight.
General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
Largely dry with variable cloud, but there will be the risk of showery rain overnight,
some locally heavy.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
There will be a few scattered showers around during the day, but more persistent rain
is expected overnight.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
Sunny spells and a few scattered showers. It will become drier overnight, but showery
rain may move into Orkney and NE Caithness later in the night.
Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust
20 W 30 25 W 40 20 W 30 25 W 40 25 W 40 25 W 35 20 SE 30 15 E 25 20 NW 30
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
Day 3 of 5 (0600 Tuesday 29th July to 0600 Wednesday 30th July) Day 4 of 5 (0600 Wednesday 30th July to 0600 Thursday 31st July) Day 5 of 5 (0600 Thursday 31st July to 0600 Friday 1st August)
Area
Day Three Day Four Day Five
Perth, Angus, Aberdeen,
Moray Firth
Western Isles, NW & Cent
Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Shetland, Orkney, NE
Caithness
Perth, Angus, Aberdeen,
Moray Firth
Western Isles, NW & Cent
Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Shetland, Orkney, NE
Caithness
Perth, Angus, Aberdeen,
Moray Firth
Western Isles, NW & Cent
Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Shetland, Orkney, NE
Caithness
Risk
(RAG)
Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green
Temp
(Max/Min)
21 12 20 11 18 12 20 12 20 10 17 11 18 10 18 9 16 11
Wind
24 hours
Rain (mm) 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total
24 hours 0 - 2 0 - 4 0 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 5 0 - 2 0 - 3 0 - 3 0 - 1
Snow/Line
Icing
24 hours
Lightning
24 hours 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Days 6 to 10 (0600 Friday 1st August to 0600 Wednesday 6th August)
Outlook
It looks set to become more unsettled through the rest of the week and weekend with low pressure near western parts of the UK. There will be widespread showers or longer spells of rain, some heavy and thundery. This may continue into next week but it depends on the
position of the low pressure system which is uncertain at this stage.

5. Overall risk of disruption
Severe risk Red
Significant risk Amber
No risk Green
The above reflects the worst case of any of the following
Wind Gusts (mph) - 1st November - 31st March
S, SW, W & NW
Islands 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
West Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
East Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
N, NE, E & SE
Islands 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
West Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
East Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Wind Gusts (mph) - 1st April - 31st October
S, SW, W & NW
Islands 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
West Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
East Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
N, NE, E & SE
Islands 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
West Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
East Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Rainfall (mm)
12 hr (days 1 and 2) 24 hr (days 3 to 5)
>75 >100
>50 >50
<=50 <=50
Snowfall (cm)
12 hr (days 1 and 2) 24 hr (days 3 to 5)
if 24hr total >=10 >=5 >=10
>1 >=5
<=1 <5
if 24hr total >=5 >1
<=1
if 24hr total <5 any amount
Line icing
12 hr (days 1 and 2) 24 hr (days 3 to 5)
Severe Severe
other 12hr > Nil Moderate Moderate
other 12hr = Nil Moderate Slight
Slight Nil
Nil
Lightning risk and disruption colour code matrix

6. Islands Shetland; Orkney & NE Caithness; Western Isles; Cent. Highlands
West Mainland NW Highlands & Skye; Argyll & West
East Mainland Moray Firth; Aberdeenshire; Perth & Angus
Risk level 1 A B C D
Risk level 2 A B C D
Risk level 3 A B C D
Risk level 4 A B C D
Lightning Risk Categories
1 - Lightning will almost certainly occur across the region, or is occurring
2 - Lightning is likely across the region
3 - Lightning is unlikely across the region, although convective activity or an active front is forecast
4 - Lightning is not expected to occur across the region
Lightning Intensity Index
A - Very frequent lightning strikes
B - Frequent lightning strikes
C - Infrequent lightning strikes
D - Very infrequent lightning strikes
All Temperatures in °C
All Wind speeds in MPH