Day 1 of 5 (0600 Thursday 24th July to 0600 Friday 25th July)

1. General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
Low cloud and fog in places at first will soon burn back to the coast leaving all inland areas dry, mostly sunny and very warm. Dry overnight with clear periods, but still cloudy and foggy in some coastal regions.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Mostly dry, sunny and very warm, although an isolated shower cannot be ruled out cross the NW Highlands. Mostly clear skies overnight.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
Dry but with a good deal of low cloud and coastal fog in places. Some sunshine is likely to develop in places during the day. Overnight, dry with variable cloud.
Synoptic Discussion and Confidence
High pressure to the north-east of the UK will continue to give dry, settled and very warm weather for much of Scotland. However, a gentle easterly airflow will continue to feed low cloud and fog onto some eastern coasts. High confidence.
Upland Forecast
As lowland forecast
Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust
10 N 15 10 SE 15 10 E 20 10 E 20 10 SE 15 10 E 20 10 SW 20 15 SE 15 10 SE 15
10 SE 20 5 SE 15 10 E 20 10 E 20 10 SE 15 10 E 20 5 NE 20 10 SE 15 10 SE 15
5 N 10 5 N 10 5 NE 15 5 NE 15 5 SE 10 5 NE 15 5 N 10 10 SE 10 5 E 10
5 NE 5 10 N 10 5 E 10 5 E 10 5 SE 10 5 E 10 5 NE 10 10 E 10 5 E 10
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
Area Perth & Angus Aberdeenshire Moray Firth Argyll & West Highland NW Highland & Skye Central Highlands Western Isles Orkney & NE Caithness Shetland Area
Risk (RAG) Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Risk (RAG)
Temp
(Max/Min)
26 12 26 11 25 12 26 11 27 11 27 10 21 14 19 11 19 11
Temp
(Max/Min)
Wind Wind
06h-12h 06h-12h
12h-18h 12h-18h
18h-00h 18h-00h
00h-06h 00h-06h
Rain (mm) Rain (mm)
06h-18h 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 2.0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 06h-18h
18h-06h 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 18h-06h
Snow/Line
Icing
Snow/Line
Icing
06h-18h 06h-18h
18h-06h 18h-06h
Lightning Lightning
06h-18h 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 06h-18h
18h-06h 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 18h-06h
Scheduled Utilities Forecast - SHEPD (North) - Thursday 24 Jul 2014
Day 1 of 5 (0600 Thursday 24th July to 0600 Friday 25th July)

2. General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
Some low cloud and fog still possible in coastal areas, but otherwise it will be another fine and warm day with sunny periods. Clear periods overnight, but coastal fog still possible.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Very warm again with sunny periods, but there is the chance of a few potentially heavy showers developing during the day. Mostly dry overnight with clear periods, but cloud and patchy rain may affect westernmost areas later.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
Fairly cloudy once again with coastal fog possible, but staying dry with some sunny intervals likely to develop. Overnight, dry but mainly cloudy.
Synoptic Discussion and Confidence
High pressure to the north-est of the UK is expected to gradually decline, but high pressure to the west of the UK will begin to intensify. Mainly dry and settled weather continuing for Scotland. High confidence.
Upland Forecast
As lowland forecast
Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust
10 NE 15 5 NE 15 10 E 10 5 SW 10 10 E 15 5 S 10 5 W 15 10 E 15 10 NE 10
5 NE 15 5 SE 15 10 E 15 5 NW 15 5 SE 15 5 W 15 5 NW 15 10 E 15 10 E 10
5 SW 10 10 S 10 5 NE 10 5 SE 15 5 S 10 5 SW 10 5 W 10 10 SE 15 15 SE 15
5 S 10 10 SE 10 5 S 5 10 SW 10 5 SE 10 5 S 10 5 NE 10 10 SE 10 15 S 15
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
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(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
Area Perth & Angus Aberdeenshire Moray Firth Argyll & West Highland NW Highland & Skye Central Highlands Western Isles Orkney & NE Caithness Shetland Area
Risk (RAG) Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Risk (RAG)
Temp
(Max/Min)
26 12 23 12 23 12 26 12 26 12 26 12 21 14 17 12 18 12
Temp
(Max/Min)
Wind Wind
06h-12h 06h-12h
12h-18h 12h-18h
18h-00h 18h-00h
00h-06h 00h-06h
Rain (mm) Rain (mm)
06h-18h 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 2.0 0 - 2.0 0 - 2.0 0 - 0 0 - 0 06h-18h
18h-06h 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 1.0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0.5 - 1.2 0 - 0 0 - 0 18h-06h
Snow/Line
Icing
Snow/Line
Icing
06h-18h 06h-18h
18h-06h 18h-06h
Lightning Lightning
06h-18h 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 06h-18h
18h-06h 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 18h-06h
Day 2 of 5 (0600 Friday 25th July to 0600 Saturday 26th July)

3. General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
A mostly dry and fine morning. Turning cloudy from the west with some showery rain
later in the afternoon. Some of the rain will be heavy during the evening and overnight
with a risk of occasional lightning.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Cloud and showery rain will spread from the west, some of the rain heavy with
lightning possible later. Further rain overnight, although it will tend to ease and being
to clear eastwards. Becoming breezy in the west.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
Fairely cloudy but dry for much of the day. Showery rain will move eastwards during
the evening and overnight, some heavy with lightning possible later.
General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
Further rain likely during the day, some heavy with a small risk of lightning. Breezy.
Drier overnight.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
A breezy day with patchy rain during the morning, this mainly in eastern areas. The
rain will tend to ease later. Dry overnight with clear spells.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
Outbreaks of rain likely during the day, some possibly heavy. It should become drier
overnight. Brisk winds.
General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
Largely dry with some sunny spells. Cloudier overnight but it should stay dry.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
A mainly dry day with some sunshine. Patchy rain likely overnight.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
A dry day with sunny spells. More cloud overnight with rain possible later.
Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust
20 NW 25 20 W 40 20 NW 30 25 N 40 25 N 40 30 NW 45 25 NW 40 20 SW 30 20 NW 25
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
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(m)
Snow
(cm)
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Icing
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(m)
Snow
(cm)
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Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
Day 3 of 5 (0600 Saturday 26th July to 0600 Sunday 27th July) Day 4 of 5 (0600 Sunday 27th July to 0600 Monday 28th July) Day 5 of 5 (0600 Monday 28th July to 0600 Tuesday 29th July)
Area
Day Three Day Four Day Five
Perth, Angus, Aberdeen,
Moray Firth
Western Isles, NW & Cent
Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Shetland, Orkney, NE
Caithness
Perth, Angus, Aberdeen,
Moray Firth
Western Isles, NW & Cent
Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Shetland, Orkney, NE
Caithness
Perth, Angus, Aberdeen,
Moray Firth
Western Isles, NW & Cent
Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Shetland, Orkney, NE
Caithness
Risk
(RAG)
Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green
Temp
(Max/Min)
23 13 23 12 19 12 20 12 18 11 17 12 20 13 20 12 17 11
Wind
24 hours
Rain (mm) 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total
24 hours 6 - 15 3 - 12 1 - 13 5 - 12 2 - 8 4 - 12 0 - 0 0 - 3 0 - 1
Snow/Line
Icing
24 hours
Lightning
24 hours 2C 2C 2C 2D 3 3 4 3 3
Days 6 to 10 (0600 Tuesday 29th July to 0600 Sunday 3rd August)
Outlook
A westerly airflow could bring some rain at times during the early part of next week, but high pressure looks likely to re-establish itself, leading to drier and more settled conditions.

4. Overall risk of disruption
Severe risk Red
Significant risk Amber
No risk Green
The above reflects the worst case of any of the following
Wind Gusts (mph) - 1st November - 31st March
S, SW, W & NW
Islands 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
West Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
East Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
N, NE, E & SE
Islands 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
West Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
East Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Wind Gusts (mph) - 1st April - 31st October
S, SW, W & NW
Islands 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
West Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
East Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
N, NE, E & SE
Islands 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
West Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
East Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Rainfall (mm)
12 hr (days 1 and 2) 24 hr (days 3 to 5)
>75 >100
>50 >50
<=50 <=50
Snowfall (cm)
12 hr (days 1 and 2) 24 hr (days 3 to 5)
if 24hr total >=10 >=5 >=10
>1 >=5
<=1 <5
if 24hr total >=5 >1
<=1
if 24hr total <5 any amount
Line icing
12 hr (days 1 and 2) 24 hr (days 3 to 5)
Severe Severe
other 12hr > Nil Moderate Moderate
other 12hr = Nil Moderate Slight
Slight Nil
Nil
Lightning risk and disruption colour code matrix

5. Islands Shetland; Orkney & NE Caithness; Western Isles; Cent. Highlands
West Mainland NW Highlands & Skye; Argyll & West
East Mainland Moray Firth; Aberdeenshire; Perth & Angus
Risk level 1 A B C D
Risk level 2 A B C D
Risk level 3 A B C D
Risk level 4 A B C D
Lightning Risk Categories
1 - Lightning will almost certainly occur across the region, or is occurring
2 - Lightning is likely across the region
3 - Lightning is unlikely across the region, although convective activity or an active front is forecast
4 - Lightning is not expected to occur across the region
Lightning Intensity Index
A - Very frequent lightning strikes
B - Frequent lightning strikes
C - Infrequent lightning strikes
D - Very infrequent lightning strikes
All Temperatures in °C
All Wind speeds in MPH