Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles in 2050: Assessing Short- and Long-Term Opportunities and Obstacles by Gemma Adams & Louise Armstrong

1. This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme
for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 613194
EU-InnovatE: Sustainable Lifestyles & Green
Economy in Europe to 2050
SCENARIOS FOR SUSTAINABLE LIFESTYLES IN 2050: ASSESSING SHORT-
AND LONG-TERM OPPORTUNITIES AND OBSTACLES
25 OCTOBER 2016

2. Agenda
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15:00 Webinar opens
15:05 Introduction & context
Simon Pickard, Director General, ABIS
15:10 Presentation of emerging evidence & findings
Gemma Adams & Louise Armstrong, Forum for the Future
15:35 Questions and comments
15:55 Summary & forthcoming events
16:00 Webinar closes

3. Context: Sustainable Lifestyles at EU Level
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Strategic policy objectives:
1. Promoting smart, sustainable and inclusive growth in the
single market
2. Managing an ageing population while reducing current
levels of energy, transport and resource use
3. Rethinking consumption / production systems as part of a
transition to low-carbon economy by 2050
Ref: SPREAD 2050
(www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu)

4. EU Policy Research Questions
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i. Links between economic, ecological, human and technological
systems and their influence on consumers' values and behaviour
ii. Short and long-term obstacles and opportunities associated with the
transition to European sustainable lifestyles and green economy
iii. New ways and new business models to manage natural resources
while reducing consumption and improving quality of life
iv. Prospects for sustainable lifestyles and the green economy
(i.e. trends up to 2050)

5. EU-InnovatE Consortium

6. Key Idea
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“ ... investigate
the creative, innovative and
entrepreneurial roles of users
in developing novel sustainable
products, services and systems
(Sustainable Lifestyles 2.0).”

7. Towards User Innovation
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8. Sustainable lifestyles and the rise of the citizen
as ‘innovator’

9. Main messages
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10. Glimpse into the findings
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11. Four Scenarios: Sustainable Lifestyles in 2050
Scenario boundaries
8000 kg material footprint per person (current European average is 27,000 to 40,000 per person)
Key global environmental boundaries are upheld, relating to (e.g. climate change, biodiversity loss,
freshwater use).
Minimum requirements for socially sustainable development recognised worldwide
(e.g. inequality, life expectancy, education).
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Inventing consumerism (1850-1913)
Contested Consumerism (1914-1950)
Technocratic Consumerism (1950-1989)
Participative Consumerism (1989-present)

12. Four Scenarios: Sustainable Lifestyles in 2050
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Health | Wealth | Citizenship | Economy | Environment
pathways | user roles on pathways | personas | future artifacts

13. Co-developed Scenarios
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Research and workshops with users,
entrepreneurs, citizens and communities who
are innovating aspects of lifestyles today
‘Future Shapers’: a network of citizens innovating in Europe

14. Four Scenarios: Sustainable Lifestyles in 2050
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What is the transition path to these radically
different futures? What distinguishes them
from our society in 2016?
What can we learn from these (possible) future
shifts, to inform our approach to change today?
Exploring the radical shifts needed, to expand our horizons

15. Four Scenarios: Sustainable Lifestyles in 2050
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How does change happen?
What contribution could ‘User Innovators’ make
to the transition, and how significant is it?
How might we support ‘User Innovators’ to
accelerate or deepen the change they can create?
FuturePast Today
“ ... investigate
the creative, innovative and
entrepreneurial roles of users
in developing novel sustainable
products, services and systems
(Sustainable Lifestyles 2.0).”

16. Innovation in the past: users incidentally innovating products
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xBox | users hacking & innovating
Mountain bikes | new market created by
users tinkering with bikes
Ford car | early customers making
modifications

17. (User?) Innovation today: dedicated spaces & subcultures
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Growth of maker &
coworking spaces |
proliferation of shared work
and make spaces all over the
world, cultivating a culture of
entrepreneurship, often
technology and community
led

18. Innovation today: organisations supporting others to innovate
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BoKlok |
Skanska,Ikea and
communities
co-designing and
building new homes
Unilever Foundry | supporting sustainable
ventures & entrepreneurs
Marks and Sparks |
M&S providing
resources to
community groups

19. Innovation today: into the realm of governance
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Dutch Citizens | Winning a lawsuit against
the government to act on climate change

20. Innovation in the future: impacting all aspects of our lives
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21. Users/ citizens/ communities innovating everything
2032 | Clara | Poland
Clara is a ‘Trust Architect’ in fashion. She knows she will develop a severe
health condition so is using her professional skills to galvanise people that
share her genetic anomaly to work together to fill gaps in research and to
co-design the care services they need; using virtual networks and citizen
science and funding platforms.
2019 | Sebastien | Spain
Sebastien’s fabrication business is failing because regulation to protect
intellectual property and data privacy aren’t keeping up with the pace of
technological change. As traditional lobbying is pointless, he has
teamed up with other businesses around the world, to develop a digital
‘self-surveillance’ system that can detect, track and reclaim lost income.
In 2026, this gives rise to
‘Commons Policing’ in
which carbon emissions
are openly tracked and
regulated around the
world, in real-time.

22. Users/ citizens/ communities innovating everything
2032 | Clara | Poland
Clara is a ‘Trust Architect’ in fashion. She knows she will develop a severe
health condition so is using her professional skills to galvanise people that
share her genetic anomaly to work together to fill gaps in research and to
co-design the care services they need; using virtual networks and citizen
science and funding platforms.
2019 | Sebastien | Spain
Sebastien’s fabrication business is failing because regulation to protect
intellectual property and data privacy aren’t keeping up with the pace of
technological change. As traditional lobbying is pointless, he has
teamed up with other businesses around the world, to develop a digital
‘self-surveillance’ system that can detect, track and reclaim lost income.
In 2026, this gives rise to
‘Commons Policing’ in
which carbon emissions
are openly tracked and
regulated around the
world, in real-time.

23. Role of users in changing and developing systems
• With digital data, platforms and
services everyone will have the tools
to communicate their ideas, build
prototypes, collaborate and use
them to innovate new ways of
organising, living and working - even
new philosophies & beliefs.
• The potential for what can be
innovated by whom is diversifying
• At speed and scale.
• Radical influence because they
operate across traditional
boundaries; driven by different
motivations.
• On all pathways, they (co) create
change by cultivating new cultural
aspirations and goals; and new
forms of governance.
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24. How we can use the scenarios
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Theories of change | Outcomes | Strategies | Programme Design
challenge your assumptions | collaborative tool | generate radical ideas | identify impact measures

25. Raises questions for creating change and impact
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What change are we seeking?
Change is complex and uncertain and
interventions have indirect impacts.
Are we ignoring or embracing this in
our approach to creating long-term
social and environmental change?
To what extent are we acting
systemically to influence lifestyles?
Are we considering the wider context
needed for us to realise our goals?

26. Raises questions for creating change and impact
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Engaging ‘User Innovators’...
Users have the potential to play
both enabling and resisting roles in
societal change.
How might we unlock the potential
of users to contribute to change?
What attention are we giving to the
‘innovator’ vs. the ‘innovation’ in our
quest for impact?
Is ‘User Innovation’ always a good
thing?

27. Glimpse into the findings
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28. 29
Summary & Forthcoming Events
Friday 25th afternoon - London
Get hands on with the scenarios,
explore what they can do for you

29. This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme
for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 613194
Questions & Feedback from Participants

30. 31
Summary & Forthcoming Events
FINAL CONFERENCE
✓ TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 22
✓ HOSTED BY ABIS @ ATELIER
DES TANNEURS IN BRUSSELS
✓ EXPLORATION OF PATHWAYS
TO ACCELERATE
SUSTAINABILITY
ENTREPRENEURSHIP
✓ NO CONFERENCE FEES!

31. 32
For More Information
www.euinnovate.com

32. This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme
for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 613194
Thank you for your time!

33. Citizens innovating everything
Innovation is needed at different
‘levels’ of systems, with an
emphasis on cultural changes to
the social structures, goals and
paradigm of sub-systems (e.g.
food and energy) and of society
at large
1. Product and service
innovations
2. Place and network-related
innovation
3. Innovation of governance
and social structures
4. Paradigm innovation