MODERN PHARMACEUTICS

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2.  It is the estimatesof future sales of a
company’s product for specific period.
 Sales forecasting provides the assumptions
used in various planning activities.
 It is used for the short-term financial control
systems. The financial budget is dependant
upon the sales forecast .
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3.  Human resource executives - use sales
forecasts to project staffing needs.
 financial executives use it in establishing and
controlling operating and capital budgets, and
 production manager uses it to schedule
purchasing and production to control
inventories.
 It is thus a very vital planning task for any
organization.
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4. • Enables a business organization to work
systematically.
• Enables the production manager to set target
for his workers.
• Helps to determine the production capacity
that is actually required.
• Helps to cut down wasteful expenditure.
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5. (1)Macroforecasting
It is concerned with forecasting markets
in total. This is about determining the
existing level of Market Demand and
considering what will happen to market
demand in the future.
(2)Microforecasting
It is concerned with detailed unit sales
forecasts. This is about determining a
product’s market share in a particular
industry and considering what will happen to
that market share in future.
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7. There are basically 3 steps in sales forecasting
process:
1. Preparing a forecast for general economic
conditions
2. Preparing a forecast of industry sales
3. Preparing a forecast of the product or company
sales
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8. It is measuring the GDP(gross domestic
product), which is the value of goods and
services produced within a country during a
given year.
Some of the others factors are; stock market
fluctuation, personal income, level of
employment, consumer price index etc.
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9. Small firms often rely on industry estimates
available from trade associations and
government sources.
In other cases quantitative techniques are
used to determine. Large organizations have
economist and analysts who provides support
and information for sales forecasts.
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10. Forecasting methods can be classified as either
qualitative or quantitative.
Qualitative methods rely upon subjective
opinions or judgments, where as Quantitative
technique applies statistical methods.
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11. (1) Jury of executive opinion:
It is simple but time taking method.
The group has executives from different
departments like marketing, sales, marketing
research, finance, production, operations etc.
Each member is asked to provide an estimate of
future sales with written justification. The
opinions are then analyzed .
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12.  Group of experts used .
 Issues like future direction of business
conditions, business activities, technology, new
product development, and market conditions.
 These experts are kept apart from each other so
that their opinions are established independently.
 They prepare individual forecasts, which are then
compiled and then given back to them for a
second round of projections.
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13.  Forecasts arrived at by combining salespersons
estimates of expected sales for their respective
territories.
 Field sales people should be motivated to accept
sales quotas when they know that the
information they supplied played a major role in
forecasting.
 A major disadvantage is that sales people might
be a poor judge of future sales level or market
conditions. They can have bias opinions as well.
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14. Forecast survey of a limited and well-defined
group of buyers. This is when the potential
customers are well defined and limited in
number, such as industrial products.
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15.  Time series analysis
A time data series is determined by four basic
elements of sales variations
(a) trends or long run changes
(b) cyclical changes
(c) seasonal variations
(d) unexpected factors.
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16.  Exponential smoothing – a weighted average
time series analysis. Actual sales of recent
periods are weighted more heavily then the
average sales of earlier periods.
 Regression and correlation analysis – aim of
regression analysis is to identify factors that
influence, or are closely associated with changes
in sales. A simple regression is a forecasting
technique using only one independent variable.
While multiple regressions uses two or more
independent variables.
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17.  The Tastes and preferences
 Economic conditions
 Entry of competitors
 Progress in science and technology
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