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Sales and Opera,ons Planning
Worst Prac,ces
Interna'onal	Ins'tute	of	Forecasters	
“Worst	Prac'ces”	Conference	
	
Chris	Gray	
Gray	Research
Good judgment comes from experience,
and a lot of that comes from bad judgment.
Will	Rogers,	20th	Century	American	Humorist	
Similarly, good prac,ces come from experience, and a
lot of that comes from bad prac,ces.
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
Or …
It’s Inventory and Operations without involving Sales,
Or …
It’s Financial Planning without involving Sales, Inventory or the Operations,
Or …
It’s S, I, and OP without even considering the New Products!
In our Company, Sales and Operations Planning is Sales (and Inventory)
without involving Operations,
"It’s	easy	to	get	the	players.		Ge2ng	‘em	
to	play	together,	that’s	the	hard	part."	
Casey Stengel
Putting the S and O in S&OP
•  To	work	–	must	include	silo	and	cross-silo	communica'on	for	all	demand	and	supply	
groups	
•  Brings	together	planning	processes	to	create	one	integrated	set	of	plans	
•  Done	monthly,	reviewed	in	aggregate	by	senior	management	
•  Must	reconcile	supply,	demand,	new	products	at	detail	and	aggregate,	Be	to	Business	Plan	
•  Company	plan	for	new	and	intermediate	term,	covering	horizon	sufficient	for	resource	planning	
and	the	annual	business	plan	process	
•  5	Steps	
•  Mix	of	processes	(gather	data,	demand	planning,	supply	planning)	and	mee'ngs	
(partnership	mee'ng/pre-mee'ng	and	execu've	mee'ng)	
All	mee'ngs	are	equal	…	except	perhaps	the	Partnership/Reconcilia'on/Pre-Mee'ng	
	
As	Dogbert	said,	to	the	CEO	and	pointy	haired	boss,	in	a	recent	Dilbert	strip:			
	
“Maybe Next Time You Won’t Skip The Pre-meeting.”
Five Step S&OP Process
Step #1
Data
Gathering
End of Month
• Statistical Forecasts
• Sales & Marketing Inputs
Step #5
Executive
S&OP Meeting
• Decisions
• Authorized
Game Plan
Step #4
Partnership
Meeting
• Recommendations &
Agenda for Exec Meeting
• 3rd-pass time phased plan
(consensus, alternatives, what-ifs)
Step #2
Demand
Planning
• Management Forecast
• 1st-pass time phased plan
(with new forecast)
Step #3
Supply
Planning • Capacity constraints
• 2nd-pass time phased plan
(with new production plan)
1	
2	
3	
4	 5
q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software
q For Our Company, S&OP is S (and I) without the O!
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software
Classic	Approach	to	System	Improvement	
	
Get	Computer	
Get	SoZware	
Get	Disappointed	
Get	New	SoZware	
Get	Larger	Computer	
Get	Discouraged	
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software
Classic	Approach	to	System	Improvement	
	
Get	Smaller	Computers	
Get	New	SoZware	
Get	Frustrated	
Get	New	User	Interface	
Get	More	and	Bigger	Smaller	Computers	
Get	Upset	
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software
Classic	Approach	to	System	Improvement	
	
Get	BIG	DATA	
Get	Enraged	
	
Get	Rid	of	Computers	…	Go	to	the	Cloud	
Get	Exasperated	
Get	a	Life	
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software
But	the	Truth	is	…	
	
the	most	widely	used	soZware	for	S&OP	is	s'll	MS-Excel.				
	
	
	
Thoughts	and	recommenda'ons	on	S&OP	SoZware.	
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
q Cogito ergo sum
q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software
q For Our Company, S&OP is S (and I) without the O!
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
q Cogito ergo sum
•  S&OP	Mee'ngs	Trump	S&OP	Numbers				
•  We	Can	Have	An	Effec've	Strategy	Even	Without	Effec've	Supply-
Demand	Balance				
•  Make	to	Stock,	Make	to	Order:	Makes	No	Difference				
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
We think we are doing S&OP, therefore we are!
q What Do You Mean, Time Fences?
q Cogito ergo sum – I think we are doing S&OP, therefore we are!
q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software
q For Our Company, S&OP is S (and I) without the O!
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
YTD Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May Dec
Demand Plan 550 550 550 550 550 600 600 600 600
Actual 500 600 600 550 550 600 600 600 600
Deviation -50 50 50
Supply Plan 600 550 550 550 550 600 600 600 600
Actual 600 500 550 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Deviation 0 -50 0
Inventory Plan 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550
Actual 500 600 500 450 550 550 550 550 550 550
Deviation 50 -50 -100
Product	Family:	D2	
Make	to	Stock	
Average	Cumula've	Lead'me	:	12	
weeks	
Customer	Delivery	Lead'me	:	3	Days	Demand	Plan	Performance	50/1650	=	+3%	
Supply	Plan	Performance	-50/1700	=	-3%	
Inventory	Plan	Performance	450/550	=	80%	
Last	
New	
Last	
Prop	
Last	
New	
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
Time Fence? What Time Fence?
EMERGENCY	
ONLY	
STABLE	 FLEXIBLE	
Changes	
Costly	
Material	and	Capacity	
Limited	
ONLY	Capacity	
Limited	
Cri'cal	Time	Fence	
P	+	M	+	F	
TIME	
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
Fence? What Fence?
q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need to Freeze the Forecast
q What Do You Mean, Time Fences?
q Cogito ergo sum – we think we are doing S&OP, therefore we are!
q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software
q For Our Company, S&OP is S (and/or I) without the O!
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
q We'll Need to Freeze the Forecast
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
Because we can get better performance with out-of-
date data!
q We'll Need to Freeze the Forecast
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
•  OZen	promoted	by	Materials	and	Opera'ons		
•  Connected	to	Time	Fence	mismanagement	
•  Some'mes	hand	in	hand	with	metrics	based	on	cum	lead	'me	not	last	forecast	
•  Creates	disincen'ves	for	forecast	upda'ng	and	cross-silo	communica'on	
•  Almost	always	because	of	bad	assump'ons	(forecast	will	be	going	up	on	all	families)	
and	lack	of	flexibility	or	ability	to	respond	to	change	
Freeze	the	forecast	at	the	CTF?	
	
Or	alterna'vely:	
	
Measure	forecast	performance	based	on	the	forecast	at	the	CTF?
q We'll Need to Freeze the Forecast
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
Putting lies into the planning data is like putting a
little horse puckey into ice cream!
q More S&OP Families Are Better Than Fewer Families
q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need to Freeze the Forecast
q What Do You Mean, Time Fences?
q Cogito ergo sum – I think we are doing S&OP, therefore we are!
q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software
q For Our Company, S&OP is S (and I) without the O!
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
q More Families Are Better Than Fewer Families
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
Often this is a misunderstanding about what S&OP is actually about.
Sometimes it is a reflection of an argument over Product versus Process families
q Laziness is a Virtue?
q More S&OP Families Are Better Than Fewer Families
q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need to Freeze the Forecast
q What Do You Mean, Time Fences?
q Cogito ergo sum – I think we are doing S&OP, therefore we are!
q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software
q For Our Company, S&OP is S (and I) without the O!
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
q Laziness is a Virtue?
• What	Do	You	Mean	“Document	Assump'ons”?	
• What	is	an	S&OP	Policy?			
• S&OP	=	Sum	of	MPS	Detail		
• When	It	Comes	to	Metrics	for	S&OP	-	One	Size	Fits	All				
S&OP Worst Prac/ces
An Effec/ve S&OP Process:
Aggregate	NOT	Detail	
Volume	NOT	Schedule	
Long	Term	NOT	Short	Term	
Hard	Numbers	
Everyone	Prepared	
Trialing/NPD	Integrated	
Decisions	NOT	Discussions
Thank you
Ques'ons?
Differen/ated S&OP Metrics for Different Strategies
Product	Leadership/DifferenFaFon	
New	products	as	%	of	profit/revenue	
New	product	'me	to	profit	
Profit	by	brand/category	
Brand	health	
Market	share	
Customer	InFmacy/RelaFonships	
Customer	reten'on/life'me	value	
Revenue	by	customer/channel	
Customer	profitability	
Low	Cost	Producer	
Customer	service	
Asset	u'liza'on	
Forecast	stability	
Cost	
Common	to	All	
Inventory	produc'vity	(turns)	
OTIF	(DIFOT)	
Sales	Plan	Achievement	
Shipping	Plan	Achievement	
Supply	Plan	Achievement	
Inventory	and/or	Backlog	Achievement	
Class	A	“Vital	Signs”

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Sales and Operations Planning Worst Practices

  • 1. Sales and Opera,ons Planning Worst Prac,ces Interna'onal Ins'tute of Forecasters “Worst Prac'ces” Conference Chris Gray Gray Research
  • 2. Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment. Will Rogers, 20th Century American Humorist Similarly, good prac,ces come from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad prac,ces.
  • 3. S&OP Worst Prac/ces Or … It’s Inventory and Operations without involving Sales, Or … It’s Financial Planning without involving Sales, Inventory or the Operations, Or … It’s S, I, and OP without even considering the New Products! In our Company, Sales and Operations Planning is Sales (and Inventory) without involving Operations,
  • 5. Putting the S and O in S&OP •  To work – must include silo and cross-silo communica'on for all demand and supply groups •  Brings together planning processes to create one integrated set of plans •  Done monthly, reviewed in aggregate by senior management •  Must reconcile supply, demand, new products at detail and aggregate, Be to Business Plan •  Company plan for new and intermediate term, covering horizon sufficient for resource planning and the annual business plan process •  5 Steps •  Mix of processes (gather data, demand planning, supply planning) and mee'ngs (partnership mee'ng/pre-mee'ng and execu've mee'ng) All mee'ngs are equal … except perhaps the Partnership/Reconcilia'on/Pre-Mee'ng As Dogbert said, to the CEO and pointy haired boss, in a recent Dilbert strip: “Maybe Next Time You Won’t Skip The Pre-meeting.”
  • 6. Five Step S&OP Process Step #1 Data Gathering End of Month • Statistical Forecasts • Sales & Marketing Inputs Step #5 Executive S&OP Meeting • Decisions • Authorized Game Plan Step #4 Partnership Meeting • Recommendations & Agenda for Exec Meeting • 3rd-pass time phased plan (consensus, alternatives, what-ifs) Step #2 Demand Planning • Management Forecast • 1st-pass time phased plan (with new forecast) Step #3 Supply Planning • Capacity constraints • 2nd-pass time phased plan (with new production plan) 1 2 3 4 5
  • 7. q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software q For Our Company, S&OP is S (and I) without the O! S&OP Worst Prac/ces
  • 8. q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software Classic Approach to System Improvement Get Computer Get SoZware Get Disappointed Get New SoZware Get Larger Computer Get Discouraged S&OP Worst Prac/ces
  • 9. q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software Classic Approach to System Improvement Get Smaller Computers Get New SoZware Get Frustrated Get New User Interface Get More and Bigger Smaller Computers Get Upset S&OP Worst Prac/ces
  • 10. q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software Classic Approach to System Improvement Get BIG DATA Get Enraged Get Rid of Computers … Go to the Cloud Get Exasperated Get a Life S&OP Worst Prac/ces
  • 11. q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software But the Truth is … the most widely used soZware for S&OP is s'll MS-Excel. Thoughts and recommenda'ons on S&OP SoZware. S&OP Worst Prac/ces
  • 12. q Cogito ergo sum q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software q For Our Company, S&OP is S (and I) without the O! S&OP Worst Prac/ces
  • 13. q Cogito ergo sum •  S&OP Mee'ngs Trump S&OP Numbers •  We Can Have An Effec've Strategy Even Without Effec've Supply- Demand Balance •  Make to Stock, Make to Order: Makes No Difference S&OP Worst Prac/ces We think we are doing S&OP, therefore we are!
  • 14. q What Do You Mean, Time Fences? q Cogito ergo sum – I think we are doing S&OP, therefore we are! q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software q For Our Company, S&OP is S (and I) without the O! S&OP Worst Prac/ces
  • 15. YTD Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May Dec Demand Plan 550 550 550 550 550 600 600 600 600 Actual 500 600 600 550 550 600 600 600 600 Deviation -50 50 50 Supply Plan 600 550 550 550 550 600 600 600 600 Actual 600 500 550 ? ? ? ? ? ? Deviation 0 -50 0 Inventory Plan 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 Actual 500 600 500 450 550 550 550 550 550 550 Deviation 50 -50 -100 Product Family: D2 Make to Stock Average Cumula've Lead'me : 12 weeks Customer Delivery Lead'me : 3 Days Demand Plan Performance 50/1650 = +3% Supply Plan Performance -50/1700 = -3% Inventory Plan Performance 450/550 = 80% Last New Last Prop Last New S&OP Worst Prac/ces
  • 16. Time Fence? What Time Fence? EMERGENCY ONLY STABLE FLEXIBLE Changes Costly Material and Capacity Limited ONLY Capacity Limited Cri'cal Time Fence P + M + F TIME S&OP Worst Prac/ces
  • 18. q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need to Freeze the Forecast q What Do You Mean, Time Fences? q Cogito ergo sum – we think we are doing S&OP, therefore we are! q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software q For Our Company, S&OP is S (and/or I) without the O! S&OP Worst Prac/ces
  • 19. q We'll Need to Freeze the Forecast S&OP Worst Prac/ces Because we can get better performance with out-of- date data!
  • 20. q We'll Need to Freeze the Forecast S&OP Worst Prac/ces •  OZen promoted by Materials and Opera'ons •  Connected to Time Fence mismanagement •  Some'mes hand in hand with metrics based on cum lead 'me not last forecast •  Creates disincen'ves for forecast upda'ng and cross-silo communica'on •  Almost always because of bad assump'ons (forecast will be going up on all families) and lack of flexibility or ability to respond to change Freeze the forecast at the CTF? Or alterna'vely: Measure forecast performance based on the forecast at the CTF?
  • 21. q We'll Need to Freeze the Forecast S&OP Worst Prac/ces Putting lies into the planning data is like putting a little horse puckey into ice cream!
  • 22. q More S&OP Families Are Better Than Fewer Families q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need to Freeze the Forecast q What Do You Mean, Time Fences? q Cogito ergo sum – I think we are doing S&OP, therefore we are! q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software q For Our Company, S&OP is S (and I) without the O! S&OP Worst Prac/ces
  • 23. q More Families Are Better Than Fewer Families S&OP Worst Prac/ces Often this is a misunderstanding about what S&OP is actually about. Sometimes it is a reflection of an argument over Product versus Process families
  • 24. q Laziness is a Virtue? q More S&OP Families Are Better Than Fewer Families q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need to Freeze the Forecast q What Do You Mean, Time Fences? q Cogito ergo sum – I think we are doing S&OP, therefore we are! q To Make S&OP Work, We'll Need New Software q For Our Company, S&OP is S (and I) without the O! S&OP Worst Prac/ces
  • 25. q Laziness is a Virtue? • What Do You Mean “Document Assump'ons”? • What is an S&OP Policy? • S&OP = Sum of MPS Detail • When It Comes to Metrics for S&OP - One Size Fits All S&OP Worst Prac/ces
  • 26. An Effec/ve S&OP Process: Aggregate NOT Detail Volume NOT Schedule Long Term NOT Short Term Hard Numbers Everyone Prepared Trialing/NPD Integrated Decisions NOT Discussions
  • 28. Differen/ated S&OP Metrics for Different Strategies Product Leadership/DifferenFaFon New products as % of profit/revenue New product 'me to profit Profit by brand/category Brand health Market share Customer InFmacy/RelaFonships Customer reten'on/life'me value Revenue by customer/channel Customer profitability Low Cost Producer Customer service Asset u'liza'on Forecast stability Cost Common to All Inventory produc'vity (turns) OTIF (DIFOT) Sales Plan Achievement Shipping Plan Achievement Supply Plan Achievement Inventory and/or Backlog Achievement Class A “Vital Signs”