Session VI Seven serotypes of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) (O, A, C, SAT (1, 2, 3), and Asia 1) occur across seven regional virus pools. In each pool, the specific serotypes that circulate in the susceptible populations varies. Since 2004 there has been a noticeable absence of serotype C from recorded outbreak data. This serotype historically occurred across European countries, however the most recent cases (2004) occurred in pool 4 (Eastern Africa) and pool 7 (South America). Detailed reports from these outbreaks suggest the outbreak in pool 4 resulted from vaccine escape, while in pool 7 the outbreak resulted from natural infection in an isolated cattle population. Following these outbreaks, response measures were taken to address the vaccine quality and coverage in isolated populations. Now, with continued lack of serotype C detection, we are evaluating whether the available data and knowledge about FMD epidemiology can substantiate a claim of serotype C extinction.

1. EuFMD
OS22 Is Foot-and-Mouth Disease
Virus Sertoype C Extinct:
What can the data tell us?
Sarah R. Mielke, MPH, Ph.D., Donald P. King, Ph.D.,
Melissa McLaws, DVM, Ph.D., Marta Remmenga, Ph.D.

2. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22 2
Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus - Regional Pools
Surveillance Data
(OIE/FAO 2022, Pirbright 2022)
1. Historical set 1942- 2021
a. 21,909 total samples
2. Analysis set 2012-2020
a. 18,757 total samples
3. Three data scales
a. Combined by year
and country
b. Combined by year
data
c. Not combined by
year or country
4. Livestock Density
(Gilbert, Nicolas et al. 2018)
Sarah R. Mielke
Is FMDV serotype C extinct?
2
3
4
5
6
2
3
4
5
6
1
Pool 2
Pool 3
Pool 4
Pool 5
Pool 6
Pool 1

3. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
< 95% for most years and
countries at all PT
95% for all regional virus
pools at 1, 2, and 5% PT
95% for most countries at
5% PT
Detection measures if serotype C were present
3
Sarah R. Mielke
Is FMDV serotype C extinct?
Detection probability at specified prevalence thresholds (PT) (1, 2, and 5%) for each scale of the
data
1% 2% 5%
Unstratified Stratified by Country Stratified by Country & Year

4. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Wrap - Up
Sarah R. Mielke
Is FMDV serotype C extinct?
Data
Associated assumptions
Regional/country factors
What assumptions are appropriate
• Does it vary by RVP?
• How do the regional and country factors
influence assumptions?
Interactive Document
• Outlines each RVP results
• Solicit feedback about
assumptions specific to RVP

5. Thank you !..
USDA APHIS | Epidemiology & Animal Health (CEAH)
VS.CEAH.Surveillance@usda.gov
Bibliography
OIE/FAO. (2022). OIE/FAO Foot-and_Mouth Disease Reference Laboratories Network. Retrieved from https://www.foot-and-mouth.org/
Gilbert, M., Nicolas, G., Cinardi, G., Van Boeckel, T. P., Vanwambeke, S., Wint, W. G. R., & Robinson, T. P. (2018). Global cattle distribution in 2010 (5 minutes of arc) [GIS Geotiff file].
Retrieved from: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/GIVQ75
Pirbright. (2022). World reference laboratory for foot-and-mouth disease. Retrieved from https://www.wrlfmd.org/