The document discusses the S-curve, which represents natural growth and market penetration over time. The S-curve formula is presented, along with examples of how global internet hosts, Facebook users, tweets per second, and Kickstarter projects have all followed S-curve growth patterns to reach 50% market penetration within different time periods. It is noted that predictive values based on the S-curve are only indicative, as a single new data point can change predictions dramatically and that greater data is needed for more accurate forecasts.

1. Magic S-curve
Ir.
Hendrik
C.
de
Lange
Patent
A2orney
and
Founder
of
Octrooifabriek
16-­‐03-­‐2012

2. The S-curve
• Represents
natural
growth
• Represents
market
penetraHon

3. The S-curve formula
!!"#
!! = !!(!!!! ) !
!!!
t0
=
Hme
of
the
Hpping
point,
when
a
market
penetraHon
of
50%
is
reached
α
=
accelerator
Nmax
=
Saturated
marked
volume

4. Global internet hosts
Within
40
years,
the
global
1.4
Billion
number
of
internet
hosts
reached
50%
of
its
market
potenHal
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040

5. Facebook users
1
billion
Within
6.4
years,
Facebook
reached
50%
of
its
global
market
potenHal
2004
2012
2020

6. Tweets per second
Within
6
years
from
Twi2ers
introducHon,
the
total
number
of
tweets
9000
per
second
will
reach
50%
of
its
market
PotenHal
01-­‐01-­‐05
01-­‐01-­‐07
01-­‐01-­‐09
01-­‐01-­‐11
01-­‐01-­‐13
01-­‐01-­‐15
01-­‐01-­‐17
01-­‐01-­‐19
01-­‐01-­‐21

7. Kickstarter projects
Within
4.4
years
from
Kickstarters
introducHon,
the
annual
number
of
projects
9000
will
reach
50%
of
its
market
potenHal*
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
*Because
of
only
three
datapoints,
the
esHmated
market
potenHal
is
of
indicaHve
value
only

8. Some remarks
• Only
one
new
datapoint
can
dramaHcally
change
the
predicted
market
potenHal
and
the
Hme
to
reach
the
point
of
50%
market
potenHal.
• Although
the
data
sets
all
perfectly
fit
on
the
S-­‐curve,
the
predicHve
value
is
of
indicaHve
nature
only

9. Thank you
Thank
you
for
your
a2enHon!
Hendrik
C.
de
Lange
Octrooifabriek
www.octrooifabriek.nl