Role of Advertising in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Campaigns Evan Tracey – President, TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group The Advertising Research Foundation

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Role of Advertising in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Campaigns
Evan Tracey – President,
TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group
The Advertising Research Foundation

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Part of a world leading market information group
TNS
Located in Arlington, VA
Providing insights on political media research
since 1997
Track and analyze political public affairs and
issue-advocacy advertising
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hundreds of national, statewide and local political
campaigns rely on CMAG data
TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG
The Business of Politics

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Role of Advertising in the 2008 U.S. Presidential
Campaigns
Political Marketplace
Campaign 2008
The landscape
The primary’s
Made for TV
The Players
Obama
McCain
Groups
The Role Of New Media
Final Thoughts

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The Changing “Business” of Politics:
The Political Marketplace
The Uniqueness of the
Marketplace
Four-year business cycle
Event & popularity driven
Upward growth in ad spending
Changes to campaign finance laws
Continuous campaign
More campaigns using TV advertising
TV is dominate media
Replay of past campaigns
Cost
Majority of ad spending in final 60 days before
an election

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Why TV is #1?
“One day of sale” business
Fighting the last campaigns
The most efficient
Partisan Cable News
TV drives, independent, late deciding
and undecided voters
By comparison (2006)
Local Cable TV $200 million
Newspaper $20 million
Radio $60 million
Internet $2-5 million
Outdoor $15-30 million

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Campaign 2008

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2008 Race for the White House
The Landscape
Polls Favored Democrats Nationally
Unpopular president
Over $63 million spent attacking Bush
by name
Flawed GOP nominee
Right track/wrong track
GOP Political scandals and
mismanagement
Financial Collapse & Economic anxiety
War fatigued
Lopsided party ID/registration
Down ballot races leaning
overwhelmingly toward Democrats
Monetary advantage for Democrats

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2008 Race for the White House
The Landscape
The Primary’s
Over $240 million on TV ads in primary
New front loaded process
Historically early start to ad cycle
Record primary ad spending in Iowa, New
Hampshire, South Carolina
Obama & McCain spent heavy on TV in
must win states
Obama shattered Iowa TV record
McCain focused solely on NH TV
Combined spending: Democrats $170
million vs. GOP $58 million
Contest-by-contest focus meant primary
ad spending in 46 states

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Campaign 2008 The Race for the White House
A Made for TV Election
Over $700m total spent on TV ads
CMAG estimates that more than $200 million other
media
Delayed Presidential General Election TV
ad cycle
In 2008: What is Old was New Again
Network TV
Long Form Ads
Radio
68 advertisers in the Primary
Over 55 advertisers in the General Election
Infomercials to Pump Top Ads

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Election By the Numbers
Obama projected TV spending $250m
All spent after June 20th 2008.
Breaks previous candidate record of $188 million
Over 117 unique TV ads over 430,000 airings
McCain projected to spending $128 million on TV ads
$30 million less than John Kerry in 2004
74 unique TV ads over 240,000 airings
Groups
RNC $35 million
Pro-McCain $15 million
Pro-Obama $10 million
Others $40 million

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Big Money = Big Markets
Obama Ad Spend Advantage
Net cable + $6 million
Denver + $1.6 million
Charlotte +2.6 million
Miami + $8.9 million
Tampa + $7 million
Chicago + $1.7 million
Net TV + $10 million
Boston + $2.2 million
Cleveland + $3 million
Philadelphia + $4 million
Wash DC + $11 million

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The Candidates

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The Candidates
Barack Obama
Spending & Fundraising
Forego public financing
Record-setting
Leverage the money
Strategy
Use up as much “oxygen” as possible with ads and
media
September Spending Surge
Force McCain to operate in a message imbalance
Target Red States
Own, don’t rent, the message
Keys to success
Expand the battleground
Run nationally
Attack and rebuttal

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The Candidates
Barack Obama
The Message
Multiple level
Proportional
National themes with local attacks
“Senator John McBush”
The method
Win in September
Multi-generational approach
Prime Time TV
Sports
Targeted media and data acquisition
Video Games/Wireless
Social media
Hispanic TV
Infomercials
National Cable

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11.6%$6,109,43610.4%165369/1/08 - 9/7/08
19.6%$7,599,51916.7%198569/8/08 - 9/14/08
21.6%$9,692,29615.7%235539/15/08 - 9/21/08
30.9%$14,016,7882.1%240699/22/08 - 9/28/08
25.9%$18,925,00429.6%341969/29/08 - 10/5/08
42.1%$32,701,51723.2%4454210/6/08 - 10/12/08
The Obama “Spending Surge”

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The Candidates
John McCain
Spending & Fundraising
Game the system
Primary money
Taking public financing
Strategy
Target & saturate “traditional” battleground
Go and stay negative
Define the race
Keys to success
Keep battleground compact & purple
Use RNC money
Rely on groups for some messages

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The Candidates
John McCain
The Message
Mono-toned & tactical
Attacking
No “range” of message
Disjointed message with party ads
Yes – “Joe the Plumber”
No – “Jerry the Preacher”
The method
Don’t lose in September
Overcome The “Chicago” Problem
Radio & Local Cable

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The McCain Box
44.6%$7,803,07446.3%184089/1/08 - 9/7/08
1.7%$7,941,3824.3%192339/8/08 - 9/14/08
-24.0%$6,402,211-26.9%151599/15/08 - 9/21/08
-26.5%$5,060,297-42.2%106579/22/08 - 9/28/08
44.1%$9,058,24040.1%178069/29/08 - 10/5/08
3.4%$9,380,56819.1%2200210/6/08 - 10/12/08
0.2%$9,401,5613.6%2283210/13/08 - 10/19/08

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The Supporter Groups
A dash here and pinch there
The Party’s
Republican Party was better funded
Support role for McCain
Democratic Party was not as well funded
Focused ads on MI & GOTV
527 Groups
Advantage GOP
Late money
Non-Disruptive
Money shifted to House & Senate
Issue-Driven Agenda Groups
Millions spent on issues focused on the
general election
Background noise

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The Negative Campaign
Candidate Percent Negative (U WIS AD LAB)
McCain (Cand/Coord)77.30%
McCain (inc. Party)80.50%
Obama (Cand/Coord)63.20%
Obama (inc. Party)63.10%
McCain had to be negative
Obama counter balanced

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The Role Of The New Media

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Internet Election
Take Six
This Is “The Internet Election” (maybe)
1998: Read my plan
2000: Look what I can do!
2002: Cool web site, bad candidate
2004: Meet up with Howard Dean
2006: Macaca mania
2008: Tools in the box
Internet: Still More Questions Than Answers
Is it for selling or buying?
Can you reach undecided voters?
If yes, how?
What’s the role for web ads in 2010 and beyond?

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast
The Role of the Internet in the 2008 Election
Top-tier presidential campaigns
Online ads mostly used for fundraising and grassroots
Less than $50 million of total spend on on-line ads
Top sites: local and national news, ideology,
demographic, sports and election
Mistakes and perception

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Winning the Ad Wars
Final month Obama outspent McCain 3-1
on ads
Overall Advantage for Obama was better than 2-1
Obama planed to spend heavy before
inventory constricted in final 30 days
McCain held back dollars for final push
with RNC
Partisan groups waited until it was too late
to deliver attacks, diverted money to
house and senate races
Obama had a message and McCain could
not get one out

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And the Winner Is!
Message
Money
TV & Radio