Political ads2012


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Presentation to Boulder Rotary 1/22/13

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Political ads2012

  1. 1. Political adsThe 2012 presidential race & beyond
  2. 2. 2012 political ads● FCC required top TV stations in top markets to file ad buys online● Record-setting money raised by presidential campaigns● Outside groups also spent heavily● CU News Corps tracked Denver market ad spending beginning Aug. 2
  3. 3. Data collection & analysis,stories, tumblr
  4. 4. National volume record forpresidential race Wesleyan Media Project
  5. 5. Colorado one of hottestad markets in nationWesleyan Media Project
  6. 6. Most ad money spentin a few states● Colorado● Florida● Nevada● Ohio● Iowa● Denver was No. 2 media market, based on Wesleyan analysis at the end of October
  7. 7. Denver ads (from Aug. 2 on)
  8. 8. Big differences -candidates● Obama campaign outspent Romney campaign $10.3M to $6.1M● Nationwide, Obama spent $266M vs. Romneys $105M● Obama got started in spring 2012● Obama bought ad time early, through Nov. 6● Romney started late because of primaries● Romney bought ad time week-by-week
  9. 9. Big differences - outsidespending● Super PACS supporting Romney outspent those supporting Obama $7.7M to $3.9M● Five super PACS supported Romney - American Crossroads, Restore Our Future, Crossroads GPS, Americans for Prosperity, Americans for Job Security● Three groups supported Obama - Piorities USA, League of Conservation Voters, Planned Parenthood
  10. 10. Super PACS nationally● Those five GOP groups spent $176.7M through the end of October● The three Dem groups spent $36.5M● The GOP Super PACS kept Romney competitive, most analysts would say
  11. 11. Congressional races● Total of $11.8 million at four Denver stations from Aug. 2 on● $6.7M for three Democratic candidates (one won)● $5.1M for three GOP candidates (two won)
  12. 12. Did ads make a difference?● Some academics question the effectiveness● Ads targeted undecided voters - about 10 percent - in fewer than a dozen states● "The effects of the ads are always quite small in a presidential race" one told us● Another wrote that early Obama ads "did little apparent damage" to Romney
  13. 13. What happened here?
  14. 14. Nate Silver & others say Colorado pushed Obama over
  15. 15. What mattered?● Voter registration efforts● Micro-targeting efforts online, via email● Get-out-the-vote campaigns● Romney campaigns digital GOTV efforts faltered on Election Day
  16. 16. "The stars might lie, but the numbers never do."- Mary Chapin Carpenter
  17. 17. In the end...● Advertising was a great financial boost for Colorado television stations● Polls in the state didnt show a lot of variation; Obama always had a narrow lead● Get-out-the-vote probably more effective use of money than ads
  18. 18. But...● The ads go on... ○ Mayors Against Illegal Guns ○ Americans for a Strong Defense ○ American Petroleum Institute● Expect more issue ads in 2013 as OFA becomes a nonprofit● 2014 Senate and House races will be huge in Colorado, with more outside money
  19. 19. Questions?
  20. 20. Contact info@fishnette on Twitterfacebook.com/SandraCFishlinkedin.com/in/sandrafishslideshare.net/sandrafish