Redefining Service Models through Probabilistic Demand Management Forecasts are not a number. Instead, they represent the probability of demand. In current techniques, the probability of demand is lost; but, what if it could be captured and used to define new business models. This is what happened at Spairliners. Join this session to gain insights on building a new business model. Antony Nardozza, Material Planning Manager at Spairliners From the 2017 Supply Chain Insights Global Summit

1. Antony Nardozza
Spairliners
Material Planning Manager
Redefining Service Models Through
Probabilistic Demand Management

2. AVIATION SUPPLY CHAIN IN BRIEF
SUPPLY CHAIN INSIGHTS GLOBAL SUMMIT 2017
REPAIR STATION AIRCRAFT
POOL STOCK ADVANCED STOCK
SERVICEABLE FLOW
UNSERVICEABLE FLOW

3. SPAIRLINERS
SUPPLY CHAIN INSIGHTS GLOBAL SUMMIT 2017
[ WE PIONEERED PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING AT SCALE ]
Over 200 millions USD of inventory
95% to 99% target On Time Delivery
1 billion yearly components flying hours
JOINT VENTURE
B E T W E E N :
+

4. OUR JOURNEY
SUPPLY CHAIN INSIGHTS GLOBAL SUMMIT 2017
MARKET
LEADING
SOLUTION
IN-HOUSE
SOLUTION
PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTING

5. SPAIRLINERS PATH TO EFFICIENCY
SUPPLY CHAIN INSIGHTS GLOBAL SUMMIT 2017
50.00%
55.00%
60.00%
65.00%
70.00%
75.00%
80.00%
85.00%
90.00%
95.00%
100.00%
$- $20,000,000.00 $40,000,000.00 $60,000,000.00 $80,000,000.00 $100,000,000.00
AVAILABILITYONSHELF
S T O C K V A L U E
STRATEGIC
COMPETITOR
AVAILABILITY
Market leader
In-house
Probabilisti
c
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

6. PROBABILISTIC LEAD TIME FORECASTS
SUPPLY CHAIN INSIGHTS GLOBAL SUMMIT 2017
FA NTA SY REA L IT Y

7. PROBABILISTIC DEMAND FORECASTING
SUPPLY CHAIN INSIGHTS GLOBAL SUMMIT 2017
FROM A DAILY / WEEKLY / MONTHLY FORECAST… …TO A PROBABILISTIC HORIZON
FA NTA SY REA L IT Y

8. PROBABILISTIC VIEW ON STOCK VS AVAILABILITY
SUPPLY CHAIN INSIGHTS GLOBAL SUMMIT 2017
SA FE T Y STO CK U NIT -BY - UNIT JO U RNE Y

9. RETHINK SUPPLY CHAIN DECISION MAKING
SUPPLY CHAIN INSIGHTS GLOBAL SUMMIT 2017
RE P L E NISH ME NT & A L E RTS H O L IST IC V ISIO N
Prioritized investments
Prioritized
divestments
Prioritized issues

10. THE ACCURACY
SUPPLY CHAIN INSIGHTS GLOBAL SUMMIT 2017
CL A SSIC STAT IST ICS
 Pick your parameters.
 Keep tuning.
 Don’t backtest (or just a little).
MACH INE L EA RNING
 Focus on the problem.
 Autotuned parameters.
 “Brute force”
backtesting

11. COMPUTING RESOURCES
SUPPLY CHAIN INSIGHTS GLOBAL SUMMIT 2017
CLO U D CO MP U T INGSTAT IC CO MP U T ING
5% OF MACHINE UTILIZATION
IT OVERHEAD
SOFTWARE HOSTED ON PC
INTERNAL SECURITY SOLUTION
AUTO SCALING
NO MAINTENANCE FOR END-USER
INTERNET BASED SOLUTION
ROBUST MULTI-LAYERED SECURITY

12. FROM CLASSIC TO PROBABILISTIC
SUPPLY CHAIN INSIGHTS GLOBAL SUMMIT 2017
CLASSIC
DAY/WEEK/MONTH SAFETY -STOCK
REPLENISHMENT
AND ALERTS
PARAMETRIC
MODELS
CONFIGURABLE
SOFTWARE
STATIC
COMPUTING
PROBABILISTIC
PROBABILISTIC
HORIZON
UNIT-BY-UNIT
JOURNEY
HOLISTIC
VISION
MACHINE
LEARNING
PROGRAMMABLE
SOFTWARE
CLOUD
COMPUTING

13. A LIGHT IN A DARK ROOM
SUPPLY CHAIN INSIGHTS GLOBAL SUMMIT 2017

14. RECAP SUPPLY CHAIN FOUNDATIONS
SUPPLY CHAIN INSIGHTS GLOBAL SUMMIT 2017
FROM… TO…