Retail Consolidation The Continuing Saga!
Cause / Effect - What’s driving retail consolidation? The Retail Landscape ( Next 5 Yrs.) -  Survival Of The Coolest? Life Expectancy Of Labels Vs. Brands - Will the consumer figure this out? Small / Mid Sized Apparel Manufacturers - Where do they fit? “ The Vanishing Middle” - Goodbye Generic! “ Generational Evolution of Apparel” - Youth Meets Boomer! Retail Consolidation
The Taste Level Of America -   “Forever Changed” -  Thank You…Mickey Drexler and the Gap Once Upon A Time… Higher price points equated to better product Lower price points meant poor quality / “no taste” Now Its:   “Good, Better, Best” Vs. “Cheap or Expensive” The Consumer doesn’t want cheap They want “Good, Better, Best” at a discount Added Value Isn’t A Bonus… - It is a requirement! Cause / Effect -   What’s driving retail consolidation?
Apparel is declining in importance to the consumer Lifestyle is driving apparel decisions Apparel must adapt and provide relevance Provide what they want…Not what they need “ Good taste is expected” …”Good deal is desired” What’s Different?
“Live Young, Work Young, Look Old - The Aging Boomer will not go quietly…Dressing Younger is Cool The 40 yr old of 1981 vs.  The 40 yr old of 2006 Single Biggest change… Father / Son and Mother / Daughter all dress alike Price is the ultimate vehicle of change Price / Value equation much more important vs. past The “25-35 Year Old” Consumer Has A Different Perspective Based on exposure to all outside influences of Media Grew up with different “Tools” (Instant Access) The Changing Consumer
Effect of “Younger vs. Older” - Clash of lifestyle apparel choices “ Everyone looks good in a “Suit and Tie” - Casualization of America = Men with no clue “ No one buys an outfit to go out on Saturday Night” - Your Lifestyle dictates what you wear “ Households with children under 18 dramatically alter what parents wear” Inherent awareness of what’s cool / what’s not The “Generational” Shift of Apparel For Consumers
Technology - “Warp Speed” visibility to brand awareness -  Good & Bad Old Adage:   Better Product = Better Taste Level = Better Distribution -  Throw it out the window -  New School:  Cool product at lower price points in broader  distributional channels Apparel Spending Grew In 2005  (+4% [2005] NPD)   Mens Stronger Than Womens Lifestyle Segment Driven Price Factor: Important more than ever New Consumer Profile Emerging Non “Brand / Channel” specific Buy what they want / where they want Changes In The Game Today
The Dept. Store Format Stabilizes And Prospers -  Federated / Macy’s streamlines and further separates from mid/tier and discount to create “Reason To Exist” Brand Direct Retail Over-Expansion   “ Rush To Direct Retail” Survival Of The Fittest = Weeding Out “One Dimensional Brand Retail” Platform  Fails Outlet Store Malls Re-Focus Good, Better, Best Brands = Better Product Offering Less “Outlet Private Label” “ Neighborhood” Niche Specialty Stores Emerge Non Mall Based “Cool” Stores: “Lifestyle Center” Destination Locations - I.E. Abbot Kinney The Retail Landscape -   Next Five Years
“ Uncool” Stores Cease To Exist Mass / Midtier Customer Once Identifiable > Becomes Invisible Everyone Wears Cool Product Big Box Players “Modernize” Assortments Generic Product = Gone Lifestyle Focus Picture Multiple “Target” Formats “ Transformational” Brands Impact Retail Formats Think J.C. Penney / Sephora The Mall Reinvents Itself “ Plastic,” “Food Court,” “Non-Traffic Driven” Retail Space Picture “Farmers Market Of Apparel” (Mixed Category / Real Life Experience )
Cool Stores Costco Home Depot Victoria’s Secret Target Whole Foods American Eagle Best Buy Pac Sun Abercrombie & Fitch Lifestyle Focused Clear Point Of View Category Dominant Modern / Relevant Business Model “ Speed To Market” “ Common Thread”
Federated / Macy’s :  Big Upside - Macy’s West: Prototype Future Better Department Store J.C. Penney:   Big Opportunity -  “Transformational Brands” (Sephora) Drive The Business K-Mart:  Big Question - Create Reason To Exist Walmart:   Big Challenge - Modernize Apparel Assortment And Add Brands “ Retailers In Transition”
“ Versions”:  according to Webster A name given to a product or service A type of product manufactured by a company under a  particular name The name or trademark of a fashion company Definition Of Brand vs. Label
My Version Labels Have Recognition •  Brands Have Loyalty Labels Get Your Attention  •  Brands Get Your Heart Labels Serve A Purpose  •  Brands Serve A Consumer Labels Offer Value  •  Brands Offer Value - Added Labels Trust Consumers •  Brands Consumers Trust Labels Are For Now  •  Brands Are Forever
3 Types of “Labels” Direct Retail Private Label Generic Vendor Label Niche Specific / Category Expert Label Direct Retail Private Label Continued Evolution Of Superior Price Value Equation Future Upside in Better Design And Quality Execution / Investment Specialty Retail Dominates Execution Vs. Department. Store / Midtier Life Expectancy Of Labels Vs. Brands
“ Generic Vendor” Label “ Vulnerable To Extinction” Price Driven “ No Reason To Exist” “ Niche Specific / Category Expert” Label Future Is Bright Creating Expertise In Category Flexible Sourcing / Design Capabilities
3 Types Of Brands Vertical Retailer Traditional Manufacturer Licensing Vertical Retailer 100% in Control Direct Access to consumer Best price / value equation Fastest “Trend to Market Provider” Sales Comps: “True Barometer of Success”
Traditional Manufacturer Reliance on retail distribution “Middleman to Consumer “Limited” control - Pricing, Point of Sale, Positioning  “Wholesale Sales” growth (vs. Retail Sales Success ) Licensing “3rd Party” Control - Licensor to licensee to retailer Management of diverse licensee cultures: “One Voice” “Direct correlation of success - Degree of brand promise kept  “ Brand Extension” - revenue growth “ Difficult” control - Wide variations: “Best to None”
7 Stages Of Development   “Emerging” “ Cool ” “Aspirational” “Accessible” “Mainstream” “ Declining ” “ Gone ” Direct correlation to sales volume & stage of development The hotter the brand gets -  The younger the consumer that embraces it. Define brand strategy before stage 4 ( “Accessible” )  Life Of A Brand
Adults “Dress Younger” - “Less Serious” - Subtract 10 years of age from your dated consumer profile “Being Cool” vs. “Dressing Cool”  2 Different Things - Cool Products exist at all distribution points vs. 5 years ago Remaining “Separation Factor” of cool: “ Brands ” “Tribe Differentiator” “Lifestyle Statement” Price / Value Equation: New Dynamic More choices to spend money on Apparel facing new competition Brands Today
“The Modern History Of Apparel” 3 Parts: Luxury / Premium Generic / Mainstream Mass / Commodity “Educated Consumers Changing The Game” Better Fashion, Better Quality, Cheaper Price “ Polarization” Of Retail Landscape Direct Brand Retail Replacing The Middle Generic Product Rapidly Vacating Middle Tier Mass Getting “More Sophisticated” On A Daily Basis The Vanishing Middle
The Term “Moderate Department Store Is An Oxymoron Squeezed From Both Ends (Luxury / Premium and Big Box / Mass) Growing Trend : Luxury / Premium Fashion   Mass / Commodity Prices Generic Product : Forces Consumer to search for lowest  common denominator price point
“ State Of The Union” Highly Competitive, Price Driven, Lack  Of Predictable Future / Long Term Status Forced To Compete With Large Public Apparel Firms  ( Chargebacks, Allowances, Discounts ) Increasing Margin Pressure 100% Of Existence Held In the “Hands Of Retail Distribution Or Wholesale Brand” The Lifecycle Of The Small / Midsize Apparel Company
Qualifications Strategic Plan Specific goals / objectives Proper due diligence “ Realistic diagnosis of the patient” Time frame - you can live with Financial support to execute Tools Sub-Branding New product launches Multi-channel distribution strategy Category extensions Trade Advertising “ Exclusive” brand extensions “ Requirement For Survival ”

Retailconsolidation

  • 1.
    Retail Consolidation TheContinuing Saga!
  • 2.
    Cause / Effect- What’s driving retail consolidation? The Retail Landscape ( Next 5 Yrs.) - Survival Of The Coolest? Life Expectancy Of Labels Vs. Brands - Will the consumer figure this out? Small / Mid Sized Apparel Manufacturers - Where do they fit? “ The Vanishing Middle” - Goodbye Generic! “ Generational Evolution of Apparel” - Youth Meets Boomer! Retail Consolidation
  • 3.
    The Taste LevelOf America - “Forever Changed” - Thank You…Mickey Drexler and the Gap Once Upon A Time… Higher price points equated to better product Lower price points meant poor quality / “no taste” Now Its: “Good, Better, Best” Vs. “Cheap or Expensive” The Consumer doesn’t want cheap They want “Good, Better, Best” at a discount Added Value Isn’t A Bonus… - It is a requirement! Cause / Effect - What’s driving retail consolidation?
  • 4.
    Apparel is decliningin importance to the consumer Lifestyle is driving apparel decisions Apparel must adapt and provide relevance Provide what they want…Not what they need “ Good taste is expected” …”Good deal is desired” What’s Different?
  • 5.
    “Live Young, WorkYoung, Look Old - The Aging Boomer will not go quietly…Dressing Younger is Cool The 40 yr old of 1981 vs. The 40 yr old of 2006 Single Biggest change… Father / Son and Mother / Daughter all dress alike Price is the ultimate vehicle of change Price / Value equation much more important vs. past The “25-35 Year Old” Consumer Has A Different Perspective Based on exposure to all outside influences of Media Grew up with different “Tools” (Instant Access) The Changing Consumer
  • 6.
    Effect of “Youngervs. Older” - Clash of lifestyle apparel choices “ Everyone looks good in a “Suit and Tie” - Casualization of America = Men with no clue “ No one buys an outfit to go out on Saturday Night” - Your Lifestyle dictates what you wear “ Households with children under 18 dramatically alter what parents wear” Inherent awareness of what’s cool / what’s not The “Generational” Shift of Apparel For Consumers
  • 7.
    Technology - “WarpSpeed” visibility to brand awareness - Good & Bad Old Adage: Better Product = Better Taste Level = Better Distribution - Throw it out the window - New School: Cool product at lower price points in broader distributional channels Apparel Spending Grew In 2005 (+4% [2005] NPD) Mens Stronger Than Womens Lifestyle Segment Driven Price Factor: Important more than ever New Consumer Profile Emerging Non “Brand / Channel” specific Buy what they want / where they want Changes In The Game Today
  • 8.
    The Dept. StoreFormat Stabilizes And Prospers - Federated / Macy’s streamlines and further separates from mid/tier and discount to create “Reason To Exist” Brand Direct Retail Over-Expansion “ Rush To Direct Retail” Survival Of The Fittest = Weeding Out “One Dimensional Brand Retail” Platform Fails Outlet Store Malls Re-Focus Good, Better, Best Brands = Better Product Offering Less “Outlet Private Label” “ Neighborhood” Niche Specialty Stores Emerge Non Mall Based “Cool” Stores: “Lifestyle Center” Destination Locations - I.E. Abbot Kinney The Retail Landscape - Next Five Years
  • 9.
    “ Uncool” StoresCease To Exist Mass / Midtier Customer Once Identifiable > Becomes Invisible Everyone Wears Cool Product Big Box Players “Modernize” Assortments Generic Product = Gone Lifestyle Focus Picture Multiple “Target” Formats “ Transformational” Brands Impact Retail Formats Think J.C. Penney / Sephora The Mall Reinvents Itself “ Plastic,” “Food Court,” “Non-Traffic Driven” Retail Space Picture “Farmers Market Of Apparel” (Mixed Category / Real Life Experience )
  • 10.
    Cool Stores CostcoHome Depot Victoria’s Secret Target Whole Foods American Eagle Best Buy Pac Sun Abercrombie & Fitch Lifestyle Focused Clear Point Of View Category Dominant Modern / Relevant Business Model “ Speed To Market” “ Common Thread”
  • 11.
    Federated / Macy’s: Big Upside - Macy’s West: Prototype Future Better Department Store J.C. Penney: Big Opportunity - “Transformational Brands” (Sephora) Drive The Business K-Mart: Big Question - Create Reason To Exist Walmart: Big Challenge - Modernize Apparel Assortment And Add Brands “ Retailers In Transition”
  • 12.
    “ Versions”: according to Webster A name given to a product or service A type of product manufactured by a company under a particular name The name or trademark of a fashion company Definition Of Brand vs. Label
  • 13.
    My Version LabelsHave Recognition • Brands Have Loyalty Labels Get Your Attention • Brands Get Your Heart Labels Serve A Purpose • Brands Serve A Consumer Labels Offer Value • Brands Offer Value - Added Labels Trust Consumers • Brands Consumers Trust Labels Are For Now • Brands Are Forever
  • 14.
    3 Types of“Labels” Direct Retail Private Label Generic Vendor Label Niche Specific / Category Expert Label Direct Retail Private Label Continued Evolution Of Superior Price Value Equation Future Upside in Better Design And Quality Execution / Investment Specialty Retail Dominates Execution Vs. Department. Store / Midtier Life Expectancy Of Labels Vs. Brands
  • 15.
    “ Generic Vendor”Label “ Vulnerable To Extinction” Price Driven “ No Reason To Exist” “ Niche Specific / Category Expert” Label Future Is Bright Creating Expertise In Category Flexible Sourcing / Design Capabilities
  • 16.
    3 Types OfBrands Vertical Retailer Traditional Manufacturer Licensing Vertical Retailer 100% in Control Direct Access to consumer Best price / value equation Fastest “Trend to Market Provider” Sales Comps: “True Barometer of Success”
  • 17.
    Traditional Manufacturer Relianceon retail distribution “Middleman to Consumer “Limited” control - Pricing, Point of Sale, Positioning “Wholesale Sales” growth (vs. Retail Sales Success ) Licensing “3rd Party” Control - Licensor to licensee to retailer Management of diverse licensee cultures: “One Voice” “Direct correlation of success - Degree of brand promise kept “ Brand Extension” - revenue growth “ Difficult” control - Wide variations: “Best to None”
  • 18.
    7 Stages OfDevelopment “Emerging” “ Cool ” “Aspirational” “Accessible” “Mainstream” “ Declining ” “ Gone ” Direct correlation to sales volume & stage of development The hotter the brand gets - The younger the consumer that embraces it. Define brand strategy before stage 4 ( “Accessible” ) Life Of A Brand
  • 19.
    Adults “Dress Younger”- “Less Serious” - Subtract 10 years of age from your dated consumer profile “Being Cool” vs. “Dressing Cool” 2 Different Things - Cool Products exist at all distribution points vs. 5 years ago Remaining “Separation Factor” of cool: “ Brands ” “Tribe Differentiator” “Lifestyle Statement” Price / Value Equation: New Dynamic More choices to spend money on Apparel facing new competition Brands Today
  • 20.
    “The Modern HistoryOf Apparel” 3 Parts: Luxury / Premium Generic / Mainstream Mass / Commodity “Educated Consumers Changing The Game” Better Fashion, Better Quality, Cheaper Price “ Polarization” Of Retail Landscape Direct Brand Retail Replacing The Middle Generic Product Rapidly Vacating Middle Tier Mass Getting “More Sophisticated” On A Daily Basis The Vanishing Middle
  • 21.
    The Term “ModerateDepartment Store Is An Oxymoron Squeezed From Both Ends (Luxury / Premium and Big Box / Mass) Growing Trend : Luxury / Premium Fashion Mass / Commodity Prices Generic Product : Forces Consumer to search for lowest common denominator price point
  • 22.
    “ State OfThe Union” Highly Competitive, Price Driven, Lack Of Predictable Future / Long Term Status Forced To Compete With Large Public Apparel Firms ( Chargebacks, Allowances, Discounts ) Increasing Margin Pressure 100% Of Existence Held In the “Hands Of Retail Distribution Or Wholesale Brand” The Lifecycle Of The Small / Midsize Apparel Company
  • 23.
    Qualifications Strategic PlanSpecific goals / objectives Proper due diligence “ Realistic diagnosis of the patient” Time frame - you can live with Financial support to execute Tools Sub-Branding New product launches Multi-channel distribution strategy Category extensions Trade Advertising “ Exclusive” brand extensions “ Requirement For Survival ”