This report explains and strategizes on ways to control the spread of the virus during its initial period (first and second half of 2020) and outlines several strategies as to how to mitigate the risk of the disease while ensuring industries stay afloat

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Problem Statement-
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic presents the most significant challenge post-World War II, the
world has been facing. Across countries, disruptions have become the norm, rather than an exception, in all
aspects of life. It is estimated that over 2.6 billion people (nearly a third of the global population) across
100 countries have been facing government-enforced lockdowns, implemented to arrest the spread of the
highly contagious virus.
Challenges, especially for India, in the form of supply-chain disruptions, suspension of economic activity,
mass-migration of seasonal labour, availability of essential goods/services, and contact-tracing and testing
in a highly populated country spread across vast demographics, all the while ensuring the norms of social
distancing and limited health resources, are perhaps any government's worst nightmare. As WHO has
repeatedly stated, the Coronavirus is here to stay.
Until a cure or a potential vaccine is developed, it will continue to have an impact on how we function as a
society, or how a government runs its economy. This pandemic is thus, not just a one-time thing, but it is
our entire future, and all that we could do currently is to prevent its spread and deploy strategies across
sectors, which minimize the impact of this deadly virus.
Assuming that you are the chief economic advisor to the government of India, answer the following
questions:
Answer-
As of 6:45 pm, June 8, 2020; the situation of Coronavirus throughout the world was as follows-

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In India, the scene is as follows-
Inferences
From the above, it can be stated that India accounts for only 3.6% of the world's cases and 1.77% of the
world's deaths. While the world's recovery rate is almost 49%, India's is 48% suggesting that with India's
population and crumbling health system, it is not doing too badly.
1. Suggest strategies to revive the economy post lockdown
While people are comparing the effect of COVID-19 with the recession of 2008-09, there are major
differences between the two. For one, people did not have any restrictions in terms of going out to work in
order to recover from the losses they faced. The entire global economy is facing a tremendous hit to the face
because of COVID-19, and it is unlikely that countries can recover soon as experts have been saying that
we will have to live with the virus (18-24 months) unless a suitable vaccine is developed. Albeit India and
China seem to be the handful of countries in which despite huge losses, the Real GDP growth seems to be
in the positive while it is negative for all major economies all around the world.
The global impact of the pandemic is more than $5 Tn, which is more than Japan's entire GDP. Hence it is
prudent in accepting the fact that there have been widespread losses and then applying the brain to figure
out a best-case scenario way out of this.

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Source
1. The first and foremost thing to do would be to ramp up testing and treating the infected. Given the
country's crumbling public healthcare system, the onus falls upon the private healthcare providers to
test and treat the infected. On May19th, India first crossed the landmark of more than 100k tests
per day. This, has to be ramped up. 100k, in contrast to its population, is less than 0.00074%. Medical
staff, public servants and the army would be required to contribute to their fullest in the operation of
the country.
Daily cumulative testing in India (in '000s)
Source

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Testing would reveal the current hotspots of the country, and more action would be directed towards these
hotspots in order to prevent the spreading of the virus. The following map shows the COVID hotspots in
the country-
Source
2. Secondly, the major aspect that is still lacking among the general populace is awareness, as can be
seen from viral videos that show people not giving much thought to the disease and not following
social distancing rules. This is worse because it is these misinformed population that takes upon
their shoulders the spreading of the virus.
3. Agriculture, which accounts for 14% of our GDP, can effectively bounce back on track provided
that storage, warehousing, and logistics align together along with agriculture along with the fact
that monsoon will help the overall momentum keep its pace.
4. The service industry will have its moment to shine, but it is unlikely that the time is now. Unless
new rules are developed and work from home practices set in within employees, the service
industry will have to drag itself to the finish line
5. The MSME (Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises), which accounts for 30% of the country's
GDP, is one of the key areas that can outperform even with the pandemic on its shoulders. The
government's decision to inject money into the system will help the country cushion the fall, but
strategic measures need to be taken in order to ensure that the country is well on its way to
recovery

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6. Some of the sectors that desperately need revival (sectors which are the worst hit) are- tourism,
the aviation, the automobile, and real estate industries, and last but not least, the hospitality
industry. These sectors employ huge numbers of people who have irrevocably lost their jobs. The
government needs to support these sectors immediately so that the combined negative of these
sectors does not cause strain on the economy.
2. What type of exit strategies can governments apply?
With the situation worsening every single day, it is important to follow a balanced approach to ending the
lockdown. This is because the country is caught between two immovable objects- the increasing cases every
day and the issue of economic ruin the country will continue to go into if the lockdown does not end.
Source
India needs to ensure that the poor, as well as the non-salaried (lower middle class), survive as they are
the segment that are devoid on income to base their sustenance off. With daily cases rising and crossing 10k
for a couple of days now, it is all the more essential for the above classes to get food properly.

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Source
June 1 was Unlock 1, India's formal freedom from the lockdown, however many institutions of education,
places of worship, and companies still remain locked till at least June 30. It goes without saying that
tomorrow or the day after, the lockdown needs to end. The entire country cannot go on with the lockdown
indefinitely as it would further devastate the already bleak economy. People cannot live with no jobs
forever, and it will be a matter of time when we will be living alongside the virus. The supply of
electronics and other associated goods have started to flow freely along with the essentials. The supply
chain needs to be freed and given special attention to as the entire country depends on the same.
Source

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Transportation of crude oil, pharmaceutical units, detergent companies are working in semi-capacity.
Everyone needs to realize that lockdown is never the solution to the problem. The only way out is to get the
vaccine, which is months or maybe years from development. Moreover, any analyst would say that the
country has already reaped the benefits of the lockdown, and furthering the same would be pointless now.
There is a need to do a cost-benefit analysis for everyone as it is not as incentivizing for all age groups to
go outside, particularly, the children and the elderly. With the help of traffic cops and the normal police the
government needs to control the rogue elements who loiter about aimlessly without having a real reason to
come outside. In hotspots, the lockdown should be limited to the building or societies/gated communities
where the victim belongs to. Public spaces like malls, movie theatres, places of worship, parks should not
be opened till the near future. Manufacturing, Agriculture and MSMEs should be opened while following
social distancing and 50% capacity working on alternate days norms.
Source
3. When will it be safe to move out of our houses?
The question is not of when but how. For many, it is a mandatory activity for going to a job, or even for the
simple act of going shopping for essentials. Hence, it is not a question of when. With adequate protection
like gloves, masks, and face shields and sanitizers, going out should not pose a significant risk. However,
there are certain points to be kept in mind-
 Not going close to persons not wearing protective equipments
 Going outside only when absolutely necessary
 Keeping a small bottle of hand sanitizer handy always
 Properly disinfecting with soap after returning from outside
 Wearing full sleeve clothes and trousers

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4. How will economic activity restart amidst a shortage of labour and norms of social-distancing?
Crises highlight the pitfalls present in our society today. It is now common news the effect COVID-19 had
on India's migrant labour. They were left to fend for themselves. Many died in accidents and thousands had
to literally fight with sweltering heat and hunger as they walked towards their home turf, not to mention the
virus itself causing them immense harm. It is therefore no wonder that India is going to face an acute labour
shortage in the coming months. In a year, it is possible to lose as many as 40 million jobs to labour shortages.
There are two aspects to the question- how can the economic activity restart and shortage of labour and
social distancing norms. Let us tackle the question one by one.
The shortage of labour needs to be dealt with in a formal way. This situation has given the government to
formalize the entire labour sector of the country as a whole. One of the ways it can be done is to present the
labourers with digital cards that they can use to formally get work in the sector of their choice. This will
ensure organization of the entire industry and monitoring their payments and wage nets if and when required.
The current system put into place is a crippling one at best.
According to the Periodic Labour Survey, the following sectors and their jobs (in millions) are mentioned
below-
Sector Number of jobs
Manufacturing 56.4
Construction 54.3
Retail Trade 37.3
Hotels and Restaurants 8.7
Agriculture 2.05
Firstly, it is essential that the government understands the impetus of the problem. Such a problem on such
a scale needs to be dealt with extremely carefully. The government has to loosen its grip on the fiscal
restraint so that people can breathe a sigh of relief
Secondly, there has to be a moratorium on loans so that people and especially businesses get a chance to
pool their resources and back on a sufficient level. In addition, as discussed above, the MSME sector has a
good chance of fighting back the effects of the economic downturn, and to encourage that, the government
has to provide working capital at low rates to encourage money circulation in the economy.
Thirdly, this scenario can be a boon for the infrastructure sector as it gives a chance for rapid job generation.
All projects that are planned or shelved for the future need to be implemented now in order to ensure that
labourers who left for their home return to their place of work with the jobs already waiting for them.
Fourth, the tax burden has to be reduced for the salaried individuals who, with the burden of EMIs and
interests, are already pressurized to the extreme. Small businesses will immensely benefit, as well.
Fostering the gig economy (freelancing economy) is also one of the ways the government can ensure that
lots of work is generated and people can work from the comfort of their own homes. Lastly, it is high time

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that the entire labour sector is simplified in terms of labour laws and rules and regulations so that it actually
becomes easier to apply and look for jobs.
Finally, all workers need to be monitored periodically, and they must be educated about the virus and the
use of sanitizers and masks to their benefit. While social distancing has to be maintained, in many jobs, it
is not possible. In such cases, protective wears like face shields have to be made compulsory.
5. Can we minimize the impact that this pandemic will have on every aspect of our life?
Most of the steps have already been discussed in answer to "When will it be safe to move outside our houses."
There are certain elements that I believe we can easily control and certain aspects that we cannot about this
global pandemic ravaging country after country. We are largely in control of our personal safety, and by
following the below four tenets we can ensure that the probability of germs infecting us be close to zero.
Source
We need to make peace with the fact that until an elective vaccine is developed, the world will never be the
same as we knew. Thus, the key is to control the elements that are in our favour and to keep aside from those
that aren't in our control.