The document discusses food inflation and macroeconomic policies in Bangladesh. It notes that inflation rates have crossed 10% annually, with food prices increasing even faster at 12.72%. Many economists estimate the real inflation rate to be close to 20%. The document examines factors driving inflation, including restrictive business practices, supply shortages, global food and fuel prices, and irrational consumer behavior driven by panic over rumors. It outlines steps taken by Bangladesh's Caretaker Government to ease inflation through various fiscal and market interventions, but notes ongoing challenges from fuel price hikes and market disruptions.
Exchange rate and macroeconomic aggregates in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the impact of exchange rates on macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria from 1970 to 2009. Using simultaneous equation models and vector-autoregressive models, the study finds no strong direct relationship between exchange rate changes and GDP growth in Nigeria. Rather, economic growth has been directly affected by fiscal and monetary policies and exports, which have sustained an overvalued exchange rate that has been unfavorable for growth. The conclusion is that improving exchange rate management is necessary but not sufficient to revive the Nigerian economy, and a broader program of economic reforms is required, including complementary restrictive monetary policy.
11.exchange rate and macroeconomic aggregates in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the impact of exchange rates on macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria from 1970 to 2009. It uses simultaneous equation models and vector-autoregressive models to examine the relationship between real exchange rates and GDP growth. The results show no strong direct relationship between exchange rate changes and GDP growth. Rather, Nigeria's economic growth has been directly affected by fiscal and monetary policies and exports. Exchange rate overvaluation has been unfavorable for growth. The conclusion is that exchange rate management improvements are necessary but not sufficient to revive the Nigerian economy and broader economic reforms are required.
This document reviews the literature on the impact of monetary policy on growth and employment in developing countries. It finds that monetary policy has limited impact on growth as money plays a small role in developing economies and much of inflation is imported. While monetary policy aims to control inflation, there is little evidence it directly impacts investment, technological change, or employment. The document argues growth does not guarantee development and examines whether growth improves living standards, creates formal jobs, or moves workers from low- to high-productivity sectors.
This study examines the relationship between inflation, monetary policy, and economic growth in Pakistan from 1989-2020. It uses inflation as the dependent variable and GDP, interest rate, money supply, and exchange rate as independent variables. Auto Regressive Distributive Lag techniques are employed. The findings show an inverse relationship between inflation and GDP, meaning inflation decreases as GDP increases. There is also a negative relationship between inflation and interest rate, but positive relationships between inflation and both money supply and exchange rate. Overall, the study aims to analyze how monetary policy tools like interest rates and money supply impact inflation and economic growth in Pakistan.
This document analyzes the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on economic growth in Vietnam from 2004 to 2013 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results show there is cointegration between macroeconomic policies and economic growth. Variance decomposition and impulse response functions from the VECM model indicate fiscal and monetary policies have a limited impact on economic growth, with monetary policy having a slightly greater effect than fiscal policy. The document recommends improving the effectiveness of implementing these policies in Vietnam.
This paper looks in detail at the sharp slowdown in the Brazilian economy for the years 2011-2014,in which economic growth averaged only 2.1 percent annually,as compared with 4.4 percent in the 2004-2010 period. The latter level of growth was also more than double Brazil’s average annual growth rate over the prior 23 years (although it was much lower than the pre-1980 period). It is important to understand why the higher rate of growth experienced from 2004 to 2010 was not
sustained over the past few years.
The authors argue that the slowdown is overwhelmingly the result of a sharp decline in domestic
demand, rather than a fall in exports and even less any change in external financial conditions. The sharp fall in domestic demand, in turn, is shown to be a result of deliberate policy decisions made by the government. This decision to slow the economy was not necessary, i.e., it was not made in response to some external constraint such as a balance-of-payments problem.
This document summarizes a working paper on monetary policy effectiveness in Pakistan. The paper estimates various VAR models and compares results to DSGE models. Key findings are:
1) VAR models using a conventional identification scheme find insignificant effects of monetary policy shocks on output and inflation in Pakistan.
2) A DSGE model that incorporates financial market frictions still shows significant monetary policy effects, contradicting the VAR results.
3) Simulating data from the DSGE model and estimating a VAR reveals that the recursive identification scheme may misidentify monetary policy shocks and underestimate their true effects on output and inflation.
This document reviews the literature on the relationship between monetary policy and economic growth. It begins with an overview of the evolution of theories from classical quantity theory to modern New Keynesian and New Consensus models. While theories differ in their assumptions around price flexibility and market clearing, most support some short-run effect of monetary policy on output. Empirically, studies find mixed results, with some supporting and others finding no relationship, depending on factors like country development and institutional quality. Overall, the literature suggests monetary policy can impact growth in developed markets with independent central banks, while the relationship is weaker in developing economies.
Exchange rate and macroeconomic aggregates in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the impact of exchange rates on macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria from 1970 to 2009. Using simultaneous equation models and vector-autoregressive models, the study finds no strong direct relationship between exchange rate changes and GDP growth in Nigeria. Rather, economic growth has been directly affected by fiscal and monetary policies and exports, which have sustained an overvalued exchange rate that has been unfavorable for growth. The conclusion is that improving exchange rate management is necessary but not sufficient to revive the Nigerian economy, and a broader program of economic reforms is required, including complementary restrictive monetary policy.
11.exchange rate and macroeconomic aggregates in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the impact of exchange rates on macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria from 1970 to 2009. It uses simultaneous equation models and vector-autoregressive models to examine the relationship between real exchange rates and GDP growth. The results show no strong direct relationship between exchange rate changes and GDP growth. Rather, Nigeria's economic growth has been directly affected by fiscal and monetary policies and exports. Exchange rate overvaluation has been unfavorable for growth. The conclusion is that exchange rate management improvements are necessary but not sufficient to revive the Nigerian economy and broader economic reforms are required.
This document reviews the literature on the impact of monetary policy on growth and employment in developing countries. It finds that monetary policy has limited impact on growth as money plays a small role in developing economies and much of inflation is imported. While monetary policy aims to control inflation, there is little evidence it directly impacts investment, technological change, or employment. The document argues growth does not guarantee development and examines whether growth improves living standards, creates formal jobs, or moves workers from low- to high-productivity sectors.
This study examines the relationship between inflation, monetary policy, and economic growth in Pakistan from 1989-2020. It uses inflation as the dependent variable and GDP, interest rate, money supply, and exchange rate as independent variables. Auto Regressive Distributive Lag techniques are employed. The findings show an inverse relationship between inflation and GDP, meaning inflation decreases as GDP increases. There is also a negative relationship between inflation and interest rate, but positive relationships between inflation and both money supply and exchange rate. Overall, the study aims to analyze how monetary policy tools like interest rates and money supply impact inflation and economic growth in Pakistan.
This document analyzes the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on economic growth in Vietnam from 2004 to 2013 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results show there is cointegration between macroeconomic policies and economic growth. Variance decomposition and impulse response functions from the VECM model indicate fiscal and monetary policies have a limited impact on economic growth, with monetary policy having a slightly greater effect than fiscal policy. The document recommends improving the effectiveness of implementing these policies in Vietnam.
This paper looks in detail at the sharp slowdown in the Brazilian economy for the years 2011-2014,in which economic growth averaged only 2.1 percent annually,as compared with 4.4 percent in the 2004-2010 period. The latter level of growth was also more than double Brazil’s average annual growth rate over the prior 23 years (although it was much lower than the pre-1980 period). It is important to understand why the higher rate of growth experienced from 2004 to 2010 was not
sustained over the past few years.
The authors argue that the slowdown is overwhelmingly the result of a sharp decline in domestic
demand, rather than a fall in exports and even less any change in external financial conditions. The sharp fall in domestic demand, in turn, is shown to be a result of deliberate policy decisions made by the government. This decision to slow the economy was not necessary, i.e., it was not made in response to some external constraint such as a balance-of-payments problem.
This document summarizes a working paper on monetary policy effectiveness in Pakistan. The paper estimates various VAR models and compares results to DSGE models. Key findings are:
1) VAR models using a conventional identification scheme find insignificant effects of monetary policy shocks on output and inflation in Pakistan.
2) A DSGE model that incorporates financial market frictions still shows significant monetary policy effects, contradicting the VAR results.
3) Simulating data from the DSGE model and estimating a VAR reveals that the recursive identification scheme may misidentify monetary policy shocks and underestimate their true effects on output and inflation.
This document reviews the literature on the relationship between monetary policy and economic growth. It begins with an overview of the evolution of theories from classical quantity theory to modern New Keynesian and New Consensus models. While theories differ in their assumptions around price flexibility and market clearing, most support some short-run effect of monetary policy on output. Empirically, studies find mixed results, with some supporting and others finding no relationship, depending on factors like country development and institutional quality. Overall, the literature suggests monetary policy can impact growth in developed markets with independent central banks, while the relationship is weaker in developing economies.
The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of inflation in West Africa, mainly in the WAEMU zone, in order to contribute to improving the conduct of monetary policy. The equation of the exchange of the Quantitative Theory of the Currency and the generalized method of moments (MMG) in dynamic panel is used. Annual data concerning six countries in West Africa and range from 1991 to 2015. The results of the estimation show that in addition to the economic growth rate and the money supply, the devaluation has a significant effect on inflation. As we can see, inflation is not systematically a monetary phenomenon in West Africa. The authorities must therefore seek to determine the optimal threshold for the rate of increase of the money supply.
The document discusses monetary policy and its goals of price stability and using a nominal anchor. Monetary policy involves central banks controlling the money supply to impact the economy. The goals are to promote economic growth, price stability, and other factors. A nominal anchor is a nominal variable like inflation that is used to achieve price stability and maintain money value. It also helps limit time-inconsistency problems where short-term gains undermine long-term plans. The document examines expansionary and contractionary monetary policy and how a nominal anchor can help central banks pursue true policies despite political pressures.
1) The document analyzes macroeconomic variables like interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, GDP, and inflation in China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia from 2000 to 2017 to determine leading indicators of economic stability.
2) The ARDL panel analysis shows that leading indicators of controlling economic stability differ across countries. For India it is interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, and GDP. For Vietnam it is interest rates, money supply, and GDP. For Indonesia it is interest rates and money supply, and for China it is money supply.
3) The analysis finds that money supply has a significant effect on inflation in the panel as a whole, but results vary by country
The document discusses key economic goals of governments including full employment, steady annual growth, and stable prices. It then covers concepts of absolute and comparative advantage in determining what goods countries will produce. It provides an overview of common economic indicators used to measure economic performance such as GDP, CPI, unemployment, and money supply. It also discusses important considerations for analyzing and reporting on economic data.
Market growth has come despite trade wars between the United States and other trade partners, particularly China. Stocks propelled forward in July due to favorable economic indicators and encouraging corporate earnings reports.
Demand for money in hungary an ardl approach by nikolaos dritsakisBalaji Bathmanaban
This study examines the demand for money in Hungary using quarterly data from 1995 to 2010 within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework. The results of the bounds test confirm a stable, long-run relationship between M1 real monetary aggregate, real income, inflation rate, and nominal exchange rate. Specifically, real income has a positive impact on money demand while inflation and exchange rates have negative impacts. Stability tests also reveal a stable money demand function over the period examined, indicating M1 is a suitable intermediate target for monetary policy in Hungary.
Inflation expectations in South Africa were closely monitored by the South African Reserve Bank to check for potential second-round effects of inflation. Surveys showed inflation expectations rising in the 2000s, worrying the Reserve Bank Governor that this could feed through to higher actual inflation if not contained. However, an analysis of inflation data found little evidence that rising inflation expectations directly impacted realized inflation in South Africa over the period examined.
11.crude oil price, stock price and some selected macroeconomic indicatorsAlexander Decker
This document analyzes the impact of crude oil prices, stock prices, and macroeconomic indicators like interest rates and exchange rates on Nigeria's economic growth from 1980-2010. Using techniques like Johansen cointegration, unit root tests, and error correction modeling, the study finds that crude oil prices, stock prices, and exchange rates have a significant influence on economic growth in Nigeria. Specifically, GDP growth is positively associated with stock prices and exchange rates, but negatively associated with crude oil prices and interest rates. The study recommends that Nigeria diversify its economy away from oil reliance and ensure transparency in financial markets to boost growth.
Nigeria’s potential growth and output gap application of different econometri...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that estimates Nigeria's potential output and output gap using different econometric filtering methods, including the Hodrick-Prescott filter, Baxter-King filter, and Christiano-Fitzgerald filters. The methods yielded different but similar results over time. According to the analyses, Nigeria's economy was overheated from 2004 to 2005 but operated below capacity from 2008 to 2009. The paper also found a relationship between inflation and estimated output gaps in Nigeria. Estimating potential output and the output gap can help inform monetary policy decisions by providing insights into future price levels and economic projections.
Crude oil price, stock price and some selected macroeconomic indicatorsAlexander Decker
This document analyzes the impact of crude oil prices, stock prices, and macroeconomic indicators like interest rates and exchange rates on Nigeria's economic growth from 1980-2010. Using techniques like Johansen cointegration, unit root tests, and error correction modeling, the study finds that crude oil prices, stock prices, and exchange rates have a significant influence on economic growth in Nigeria. Specifically, GDP growth is positively associated with stock prices and exchange rates, but negatively associated with crude oil prices and interest rates. The study recommends that Nigeria diversify its economy away from oil reliance and ensure transparency in financial markets to boost growth.
- Consumer price inflation in Latvia continued to decline in January 2012, reaching 3.6% year-over-year from 4.7% in August 2011. The largest price increases were in housing and transportation.
- Food price inflation also slowed, with food prices only 3.7% higher than a year ago. Several goods experienced deflation, including clothing, healthcare, communications, and education.
- Looking ahead, heating tariffs and fuel prices are expected to increase inflation in coming months, though to a lesser degree than in January, with inflation stabilizing in the summer unless geopolitical conflicts disrupt oil markets. Overall, consumer price growth in Latvia is forecast to continue decelerating in 2012.
Developing economies are different than developed economies in many aspects, i.e., in terms of institutional framework and political situation etc. Thus, the monetary policy needed in developing countries is also different than developed countries. The goal of this study is to investigate exchange rate channel of monetary transmission mechanism in a developing country’s setup. The variables included in our analysis are interest rate, exchange rate, exports, consumer price index and gross domestic product. Johansen cointegration technique is applied to analyze the long run relationship among variables while multivariate VECM granger causality test is used to explore the direction of causality among the set of our variables. We use annual data ranging from 1980 to 2015 while taking account of the limitations of time series data. Our findings suggest that output has a negative long run relationship with exchange rate and interest rate, positive relationship with exports and no statistically significant relationship with inflation. Interest rate granger causes all four of our variables thus showing the power of this policy tool. Exchange rate causes exports, consumer price index and output which means exchange rate is the second most powerful variable in our analysis. Output is granger caused by interest rate, exports and exchange rate which confirms the sensitivity of output to these variables. Consumer price index is granger caused by all four of our variables and came out to be the most sensitive variable in our analysis.
Wage growth in the third quarter of 2014 was 7.4% year-over-year, leading to higher private consumption. However, consumption growth of 2.1% was lower than expected given wage increases, possibly due to increased household savings. Inflation in November was 0.9% with falling fuel prices offsetting stable other prices. Manufacturing output grew in October despite external market challenges. Non-financial investment in manufacturing increased 34.1% in the first three quarters, indicating capacity for future production growth.
This document provides an overview of government economic policy tools used by central banks and finance ministries. It discusses fiscal policy tools like taxation and government spending and how they can be used to stimulate or contract the economy. It also explains monetary policy tools controlled by central banks, including interest rates, required reserve ratios, and open market operations to influence money supply and achieve goals of steady growth and low inflation. Specific policy examples from the US, UK, Japan, and Europe are also mentioned.
This document examines the effect of macroeconomic variables (exchange rate, treasury bill rate, and inflation rate) on sectoral share price indices in Sri Lanka from 2008 to 2012. Multiple regression analysis found that the macroeconomic variables explained over 50% of the variation in share prices for all sectors except telecom. Exchange rate and inflation rate generally had a significant negative and positive effect respectively on share prices, while treasury bill rate had a mostly negative but weaker effect. Inflation rate tended to be the most influential macroeconomic variable for most sectors.
Devanayagam_Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Global Stock MarketsDevanayagam N
The document presents a study analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables on global stock market performance. It tests the hypothesis that GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment significantly impact stock market indices. Regression models show GDP growth and inflation have a significant, direct relationship with stock market changes. The study concludes macroeconomic factors robustly explain parts of stock market performance, allowing better understanding and guidance for investors.
1) The document analyzes Japan's economic growth under an export-oriented economy using data from 1996-2015.
2) It finds a long-term cointegrating relationship between GDP and exports, imports, FDI through unit root and cointegration tests. GDP has a positive long-term relationship with exports and negative relationships with imports and FDI.
3) The results indicate exports have played a significant role in Japan's economic growth, more so than imports or FDI, confirming the success of Japan's export-oriented development strategy since the 1860s.
11.monetary policy, exchange rate and inflation rate in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes research on the relationship between monetary policy, exchange rates, and inflation rates in Nigeria from 1986 to 2010. It finds that there is a cointegrating relationship between the variables using a vector error correction model. Specifically, it finds unidirectional causation from exchange rates and inflation to interest rates (the monetary policy measure), and bidirectional causation between inflation and exchange rates. No causation was found from interest rates to exchange rates or inflation. This provides evidence that changes in exchange rates and inflation cause changes in monetary policy rather than the other way around. The study recommends appropriate management and control of exchange rates and inflation.
1) The document examines the impact of inflation on economic growth in Tanzania from 1990-2011. It analyzes the relationship between inflation and GDP growth through correlation coefficients and cointegration techniques.
2) The results suggest that inflation has a negative impact on economic growth in Tanzania. There is no long-run cointegrating relationship between inflation and GDP growth over the period studied.
3) The study aims to measure the responsiveness of changes in GDP to changes in the general price level, in order to provide useful information to policymakers on managing inflation to stimulate economic growth.
Presentation from September, 2010 about the RTI proposal to improve the C++ API for the OMG's Data Distribution Service specification (DDS). See also http://code.google.com/p/dds-psm-cxx/.
The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of inflation in West Africa, mainly in the WAEMU zone, in order to contribute to improving the conduct of monetary policy. The equation of the exchange of the Quantitative Theory of the Currency and the generalized method of moments (MMG) in dynamic panel is used. Annual data concerning six countries in West Africa and range from 1991 to 2015. The results of the estimation show that in addition to the economic growth rate and the money supply, the devaluation has a significant effect on inflation. As we can see, inflation is not systematically a monetary phenomenon in West Africa. The authorities must therefore seek to determine the optimal threshold for the rate of increase of the money supply.
The document discusses monetary policy and its goals of price stability and using a nominal anchor. Monetary policy involves central banks controlling the money supply to impact the economy. The goals are to promote economic growth, price stability, and other factors. A nominal anchor is a nominal variable like inflation that is used to achieve price stability and maintain money value. It also helps limit time-inconsistency problems where short-term gains undermine long-term plans. The document examines expansionary and contractionary monetary policy and how a nominal anchor can help central banks pursue true policies despite political pressures.
1) The document analyzes macroeconomic variables like interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, GDP, and inflation in China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia from 2000 to 2017 to determine leading indicators of economic stability.
2) The ARDL panel analysis shows that leading indicators of controlling economic stability differ across countries. For India it is interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, and GDP. For Vietnam it is interest rates, money supply, and GDP. For Indonesia it is interest rates and money supply, and for China it is money supply.
3) The analysis finds that money supply has a significant effect on inflation in the panel as a whole, but results vary by country
The document discusses key economic goals of governments including full employment, steady annual growth, and stable prices. It then covers concepts of absolute and comparative advantage in determining what goods countries will produce. It provides an overview of common economic indicators used to measure economic performance such as GDP, CPI, unemployment, and money supply. It also discusses important considerations for analyzing and reporting on economic data.
Market growth has come despite trade wars between the United States and other trade partners, particularly China. Stocks propelled forward in July due to favorable economic indicators and encouraging corporate earnings reports.
Demand for money in hungary an ardl approach by nikolaos dritsakisBalaji Bathmanaban
This study examines the demand for money in Hungary using quarterly data from 1995 to 2010 within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework. The results of the bounds test confirm a stable, long-run relationship between M1 real monetary aggregate, real income, inflation rate, and nominal exchange rate. Specifically, real income has a positive impact on money demand while inflation and exchange rates have negative impacts. Stability tests also reveal a stable money demand function over the period examined, indicating M1 is a suitable intermediate target for monetary policy in Hungary.
Inflation expectations in South Africa were closely monitored by the South African Reserve Bank to check for potential second-round effects of inflation. Surveys showed inflation expectations rising in the 2000s, worrying the Reserve Bank Governor that this could feed through to higher actual inflation if not contained. However, an analysis of inflation data found little evidence that rising inflation expectations directly impacted realized inflation in South Africa over the period examined.
11.crude oil price, stock price and some selected macroeconomic indicatorsAlexander Decker
This document analyzes the impact of crude oil prices, stock prices, and macroeconomic indicators like interest rates and exchange rates on Nigeria's economic growth from 1980-2010. Using techniques like Johansen cointegration, unit root tests, and error correction modeling, the study finds that crude oil prices, stock prices, and exchange rates have a significant influence on economic growth in Nigeria. Specifically, GDP growth is positively associated with stock prices and exchange rates, but negatively associated with crude oil prices and interest rates. The study recommends that Nigeria diversify its economy away from oil reliance and ensure transparency in financial markets to boost growth.
Nigeria’s potential growth and output gap application of different econometri...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that estimates Nigeria's potential output and output gap using different econometric filtering methods, including the Hodrick-Prescott filter, Baxter-King filter, and Christiano-Fitzgerald filters. The methods yielded different but similar results over time. According to the analyses, Nigeria's economy was overheated from 2004 to 2005 but operated below capacity from 2008 to 2009. The paper also found a relationship between inflation and estimated output gaps in Nigeria. Estimating potential output and the output gap can help inform monetary policy decisions by providing insights into future price levels and economic projections.
Crude oil price, stock price and some selected macroeconomic indicatorsAlexander Decker
This document analyzes the impact of crude oil prices, stock prices, and macroeconomic indicators like interest rates and exchange rates on Nigeria's economic growth from 1980-2010. Using techniques like Johansen cointegration, unit root tests, and error correction modeling, the study finds that crude oil prices, stock prices, and exchange rates have a significant influence on economic growth in Nigeria. Specifically, GDP growth is positively associated with stock prices and exchange rates, but negatively associated with crude oil prices and interest rates. The study recommends that Nigeria diversify its economy away from oil reliance and ensure transparency in financial markets to boost growth.
- Consumer price inflation in Latvia continued to decline in January 2012, reaching 3.6% year-over-year from 4.7% in August 2011. The largest price increases were in housing and transportation.
- Food price inflation also slowed, with food prices only 3.7% higher than a year ago. Several goods experienced deflation, including clothing, healthcare, communications, and education.
- Looking ahead, heating tariffs and fuel prices are expected to increase inflation in coming months, though to a lesser degree than in January, with inflation stabilizing in the summer unless geopolitical conflicts disrupt oil markets. Overall, consumer price growth in Latvia is forecast to continue decelerating in 2012.
Developing economies are different than developed economies in many aspects, i.e., in terms of institutional framework and political situation etc. Thus, the monetary policy needed in developing countries is also different than developed countries. The goal of this study is to investigate exchange rate channel of monetary transmission mechanism in a developing country’s setup. The variables included in our analysis are interest rate, exchange rate, exports, consumer price index and gross domestic product. Johansen cointegration technique is applied to analyze the long run relationship among variables while multivariate VECM granger causality test is used to explore the direction of causality among the set of our variables. We use annual data ranging from 1980 to 2015 while taking account of the limitations of time series data. Our findings suggest that output has a negative long run relationship with exchange rate and interest rate, positive relationship with exports and no statistically significant relationship with inflation. Interest rate granger causes all four of our variables thus showing the power of this policy tool. Exchange rate causes exports, consumer price index and output which means exchange rate is the second most powerful variable in our analysis. Output is granger caused by interest rate, exports and exchange rate which confirms the sensitivity of output to these variables. Consumer price index is granger caused by all four of our variables and came out to be the most sensitive variable in our analysis.
Wage growth in the third quarter of 2014 was 7.4% year-over-year, leading to higher private consumption. However, consumption growth of 2.1% was lower than expected given wage increases, possibly due to increased household savings. Inflation in November was 0.9% with falling fuel prices offsetting stable other prices. Manufacturing output grew in October despite external market challenges. Non-financial investment in manufacturing increased 34.1% in the first three quarters, indicating capacity for future production growth.
This document provides an overview of government economic policy tools used by central banks and finance ministries. It discusses fiscal policy tools like taxation and government spending and how they can be used to stimulate or contract the economy. It also explains monetary policy tools controlled by central banks, including interest rates, required reserve ratios, and open market operations to influence money supply and achieve goals of steady growth and low inflation. Specific policy examples from the US, UK, Japan, and Europe are also mentioned.
This document examines the effect of macroeconomic variables (exchange rate, treasury bill rate, and inflation rate) on sectoral share price indices in Sri Lanka from 2008 to 2012. Multiple regression analysis found that the macroeconomic variables explained over 50% of the variation in share prices for all sectors except telecom. Exchange rate and inflation rate generally had a significant negative and positive effect respectively on share prices, while treasury bill rate had a mostly negative but weaker effect. Inflation rate tended to be the most influential macroeconomic variable for most sectors.
Devanayagam_Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Global Stock MarketsDevanayagam N
The document presents a study analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables on global stock market performance. It tests the hypothesis that GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment significantly impact stock market indices. Regression models show GDP growth and inflation have a significant, direct relationship with stock market changes. The study concludes macroeconomic factors robustly explain parts of stock market performance, allowing better understanding and guidance for investors.
1) The document analyzes Japan's economic growth under an export-oriented economy using data from 1996-2015.
2) It finds a long-term cointegrating relationship between GDP and exports, imports, FDI through unit root and cointegration tests. GDP has a positive long-term relationship with exports and negative relationships with imports and FDI.
3) The results indicate exports have played a significant role in Japan's economic growth, more so than imports or FDI, confirming the success of Japan's export-oriented development strategy since the 1860s.
11.monetary policy, exchange rate and inflation rate in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes research on the relationship between monetary policy, exchange rates, and inflation rates in Nigeria from 1986 to 2010. It finds that there is a cointegrating relationship between the variables using a vector error correction model. Specifically, it finds unidirectional causation from exchange rates and inflation to interest rates (the monetary policy measure), and bidirectional causation between inflation and exchange rates. No causation was found from interest rates to exchange rates or inflation. This provides evidence that changes in exchange rates and inflation cause changes in monetary policy rather than the other way around. The study recommends appropriate management and control of exchange rates and inflation.
1) The document examines the impact of inflation on economic growth in Tanzania from 1990-2011. It analyzes the relationship between inflation and GDP growth through correlation coefficients and cointegration techniques.
2) The results suggest that inflation has a negative impact on economic growth in Tanzania. There is no long-run cointegrating relationship between inflation and GDP growth over the period studied.
3) The study aims to measure the responsiveness of changes in GDP to changes in the general price level, in order to provide useful information to policymakers on managing inflation to stimulate economic growth.
Presentation from September, 2010 about the RTI proposal to improve the C++ API for the OMG's Data Distribution Service specification (DDS). See also http://code.google.com/p/dds-psm-cxx/.
Large-Scale System Integration with DDS for SCADA, C2, and FinanceRick Warren
Presentation to the OMG Real-Time Workshop in May 2010 on system integration patterns, especially (but not exclusively) with respect to OMG Data Distribution Service (DDS) technology.
Social Media Revolutions: How to communicate in the web 2.0 worldAlastair Smith
The document discusses strategies for effective communication on social media platforms. It emphasizes the importance of understanding the audience and their interests, sharing engaging content that takes advantage of each platform's capabilities, and being prepared to respond to both positive and negative feedback. The key is listening to the audience and providing value to them rather than just promoting oneself or one's company.
Extensible and Dynamic Topic Types for DDSRick Warren
Presentation to a Technical Meeting of the Object Management Group (OMG) describing a revised response to an RFP for improvements to the DDS type system in December 2009.
This presentation "replaces" my earlier presentation http://www.slideshare.net/rickbwarren/extensible-and-dynamic-topic-types-for-dds.
A brief presented by LT Lesley Lykins, Deputy for Emerging Media integration for the Department of Navy Office of Information, to the American Legion National Conference.
Java 5 PSM for DDS: Initial Submission (out of date)Rick Warren
Presentation to the OMG's MARS Task Force in June, 2010 on proposed improvements to the Java API to the OMG's Data Distribution Service specification (DDS).
Inflation refers to a general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. In Pakistan, the most important categories contributing to inflation are food, housing, clothing, and transportation. When demand for goods outpaces supply, or costs of production rise, businesses generally raise prices, leading to inflation. High inflation hurts consumers and the economy. To control inflation, the government can implement monetary policies like controlling the money supply and credit, increasing production, and encouraging savings. Under the PPP government from 2007-2011, Pakistan's inflation rate ranged from 10.1% to 19.27%, while GDP growth declined, demonstrating the negative economic impacts of high inflation.
Investigating the Long Run Relationship Between Crude Oil and Food Commodity ...Veripath Partners
"Crude oil price is believed to be one of the factors that affect food commodity prices. It is an
agricultural production input, therefore the prices of fertilizer, fuel and transportation are affected by the crude oil prices directly, and subsequently they influence the production of grain commodities. There is another dimension to how oil prices can affect food commodity prices, and it is from the derived demand for biofuels. With rising oil prices, demand for biofuels increase and the production
of these fuel is highly dependent on the availability of agricultural feed stocks. So it is primarily because of the above two dynamics that I want to investigate if there is a long term relationship between crude oil prices and food commodity prices. This is an important issue in present times because of the rising prices and volatility in the oil and food commodity markets. I will try to examine if there exist a cointegrating relationship between crude oil price and food commodity price for the period between 1980 to 2011. The food commodities selected are maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Time Series econometric techniques were applied to find our results. The Engle-Granger Co-integration test revealed that there is long run relationship between crude oil prices and maize, soybean, wheat. But, rice prices were not found to be cointegrated. I also carried out the traditional Granger Causality test to check whether causality exist between the two prices. We find that there is unidirectional causality, with only crude oil prices ‘Granger causing’ each of the four food commodity prices. The reverse was not true, as crude oil prices were not found to be influenced by price of food commodities. So from our results we can confirm the significance of oil prices and the impact it has on the food commodity prices."
The document provides an overview of Tanzania's macroeconomic performance over the past three years (2006-2008). Some key points:
- GDP growth averaged 7% per year, driven by structural reforms and prudent fiscal/monetary policies. Inflation rose to over 10% in 2008 due to high global food and oil prices.
- Government revenues increased through broadening the tax base and improved collection. However, expenditures outpaced revenues, widening the budget deficit.
- External debt increased to over USD 6 billion by 2008 but remains sustainable at around 32% of GDP. Exports grew over imports, though the trade balance worsened.
This article aims to present the strategies that would make it possible to eliminate inflation in Brazil. Inflation is defined as the continuous, persistent and widespread increase in prices in general. Inflation mainly affects the less favored sections of the population, as they have less access to financial instruments to defend themselves from rising prices. Inflation is presented as one of the scourges that affect the Brazilian population at the present time because it erodes the income of all Brazilians, but it is crueler to those who have less income. The control of inflation by the Brazilian government has been extremely ineffective. Controlling the inflation of demand for goods and services would be effective if the Brazilian government planned the economy together with the productive sector so that national production meets domestic demand for goods and services. Controlling the cost inflation would be effective if the Brazilian government monitor the evolution of wages, raw materials and input prices to adopt measures to avoid their increase, encourage increased productivity in agricultural, industrial, trade and services production and promote cost reduction in inefficient electric energy and oil production systems with their planning and nationalization and in cargo transport with their planning oriented towards waterway and rail modes. The current strategy to combat demand inflation is ineffective because the government increases the basic interest rate (Selic rate) and reduces the amount of currency in circulation in the economy through the sale of government bonds that contribute to worsening the recession in the country and increase public debt. The current strategy to fight cost inflation is ineffective because the government does not work with the productive sectors to promote productivity increases in agricultural, industrial, commercial and service production. To put an end to the scourge of inflation in Brazil, it is necessary to ensure that the neoliberal economic model that has presided over the actions of the Brazilian government in the economy since 1990 is immediately abandoned and replaced by the Keynesian-based national developmentalist model that would make the government play an active role in the planning of the national economy which, with feedback and control mechanisms, would successfully combat demand and cost inflation, avoid hyperinflation and promote national development.
The Effect of Changing Population and Inflation on the Indian GDPijtsrd
This research relates the two very crucial aspect of the economy i.e., the rate of inflation and the population growth with the change in GDP. As we know that inflation is quite unstable therefore studying its implication on the GDP helps us better understand it and therefore deal with it. The increase of population boosts the GDP while the increase of inflation decreases the GDP as thought in terms of the laymen, but their intricate relations need more understanding. To be able to deal with such volatile influences over the GDP and being able to control their effects with a better understanding is what is aimed in this research. Naman Mishra "The Effect of Changing Population and Inflation on the Indian GDP" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-6 | Issue-5 , August 2022, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd50683.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/humanities-and-the-arts/economics/50683/the-effect-of-changing-population-and-inflation-on-the-indian-gdp/naman-mishra
This document analyzes food inflation in Bangladesh over the past 12 years. It finds that both short-term factors like natural disasters and high oil prices, as well as long-term factors like poor agricultural policies, trade liberalization, and currency depreciation have contributed to rising food inflation. Food inflation has increased income inequality and pushed millions into poverty. While farmers see higher food prices, middlemen ensure farmers do not benefit from the price increases.
This document discusses how governments can overcome inflation through monetary and fiscal policies. It explains that monetary policy uses interest rates and open market operations to control the money supply. Through open market operations, the central bank sells securities to lower bank reserves and restrict lending. Reserve requirements can also tighten the money supply by requiring banks to hold more reserves. Fiscal policy involves increasing taxes or reducing government spending to decrease spending in the economy. These contractionary policies aim to slow economic growth and reduce inflation.
Evaluation of the Impact of Biofuels on Food PricesFGV Brazil
Evaluation of the Impact of Biofuels on Food Prices - November 2011
At the end of 2008, FGV Projects sponsored a survey to analyze the determining factors behind food prices. Among the main conclusions of the study, it was established that the expansion in the production of biofuels – more precisely ethanol from sugar cane – was not a relevant factor for the rise in food prices observed over the course of the year 2008. What really contributed decisively to the rise in food prices was speculation in the futures markets and an increase in demand at a time when world stockpiles were low.
This publication - specially developed for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and FGV Foundation’s seminar ‘Agribusiness in Brazil: Policies, Experiences and Perspectives” (Paris, November 2011) - updates the earlier work by investigating the causes of price increases.
See more at: http://fgvprojetos.fgv.br/en/publicacao/evaluation-impact-biofuels-food-prices
To request a proposal from FGV Projetos, please visit: http://fgvprojetos.fgv.br/en/contact-us
This document discusses inflation in India, including defining different types of inflation rates and causes of inflation. It outlines how inflation is measured in India using the Wholesale Price Index and Consumer Price Index. The document then analyzes current factors contributing to low inflation rates in India, such as falling international crude oil prices and lower food price increases. It also discusses potential consequences and sustainability issues regarding India's recent achievement of near-zero inflation rates.
The document discusses inflation in India, including its types, causes, measurement, and current trends. It provides details on key inflation indices like the wholesale price index and consumer price index. Recent inflation in India has fallen towards zero inflation due to several factors: a large drop in international crude oil prices, stagnant food prices, compressed demand from lower rural wages and spending, and tight monetary policy from the RBI. However, the document notes this decline may not be sustainable as the key drivers of falling prices are volatile and outside monetary policy control.
This document discusses the impact of rising food prices on consumers. It provides data showing increases in the consumer price index (CPI) for various food categories in Malaysia from May 2012 to May 2013. Rising food prices can negatively impact healthy eating habits and increase the cost of living. They reduce consumer loyalty and prompt more savvy shopping. The causes of high food prices include poor weather conditions, low stock levels, high petroleum prices, and increased biofuels demand. The government responses include maintaining ceiling retail prices for rice and increasing subsidies and production of basic foodstuffs.
This document discusses the impacts of rising global food prices in Asia. It finds that while domestic food price inflation in Asia is not as severe as global inflation, rising prices still threaten growth and poverty reduction. Food price increases are driven by factors like increased demand from China and India, biofuel mandates, commodity speculation, and high oil prices. Countries responded with both export restrictions and increased imports, exacerbating the crisis. Higher prices negatively impact the poorest consumers, though rural agricultural producers may benefit. Overall, food inflation poses challenges but responses can help mitigate threats to the poor.
Inflation in Pakistan has been high in recent years, peaking at over 13% in 2010 due to factors like declining economic growth, higher global commodity prices, and domestic instability. The government's inflation target is 5% and it aims to reduce inflation through monetary and fiscal policies. Measures taken from 2000-2008 successfully reduced inflation below 5%, but recent floods and global factors have increased inflation. Current challenges include stabilizing prices while addressing Pakistan's economic development needs over the long term.
Monetary Policy Variables and Agricultural Development in NigeriaAJHSSR Journal
ABSTRACT : The goal of any country's monetary policy is to maximize economic production ; thus, the
monetary authorities of that country use monetary policy variables to regulate the money supply, interest rates,
and other aspects of the money market. From 1999-2017, when the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) employed a
wide range of monetary policy variables to stimulate the economy, this study employs the multiple regression
technique to examine the relationship between agricultural output, government spending, money supply, and
inflation rate in Nigeria. This research found that financial policy measures can be used to affect agriculture,
which would have a positive knock-on effect on agricultural development and, ultimately, Nigeria's economic
growth and development. Both tools of monetary policy have the potential to promote agricultural growth with
the right policies in place.
KEYWORDS : Agricultural Output, Government Spending, Inflation Rateand Money Supply.
The document provides an overview of the consumer health market in Vietnam. It discusses key trends such as rising consumer purchasing power fueling growth in the market. Vitamins and dietary supplements saw rising demand as incomes increased. Self-medication remained common practice. The market saw intensifying competition between international and domestic brands. The outlook is positive with market growth projected to continue over the forecast period driven by higher incomes and health awareness.
Presentation Topic is : Inflation Situation in The Economy of Bangladesh.
Topic Covered:
• INFLATION
• REASON OF INFLATION
• TYPES OF INFLATION
• CAUSES OF INFLATION
• IMPACT OF INFLATION IN
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY
• GLOBAL REVIEW OF INFLATION
• INFLATION OUTLOOK IN BANGLADESH
• MEASURES TO CONTROL INFLATION
• PEOPLE & LOCAL MARKET REVIEW IN
BANGLADESH
This document discusses inflation in Bangladesh over several chapters:
1. It provides background on inflation, defining it as a sustained increase in general price levels. The main causes are seen as demand-pull (too much money chasing too few goods) and cost-push (increased costs passed on to consumers).
2. Inflation in Bangladesh has recently increased, prompting the central bank to tighten monetary policy. However, inflation is also driven by non-economic factors like profiteering and lack of price monitoring.
3. Charts show Bangladesh's inflation rate averaged 6.65% from 1994-2016, reaching a high of 16% in 2011 and low of -0.03% in 1996,
With Investments being the integral part of the economic development, this edition also highlights the investment scenario in the CII western region for the June quarter ending. Apart from the aforementioned articles it also carries the regular feature of Economy Snapshot and activities in the region.
PASCHEEM -CII Western Region (WR) Monthly Newsletter
rticle on inflation
1. The anatomy of food inflation and macroeconomic
policies
At the very beginning, I want to give an apology by saying that I am not an economist
and the study that I completed here is not an expert one. In spite of that I, being a student
of finance, have got an adequate amount of valor and firmness to make analysis and
remark on current price hike situation, monetary and fiscal policies to face this situation.
Let me also admit that I worked based on my modest intellectual capacity, information
from a range of renowned newspapers and used a small number of reports as well.
Today market has become a horrible place for people. The price of daily necessaries have
skyrocketed .The real income of people is decreasing due to inflation as well as people
are loosing job. As a result standard of living declining day by day .It has been a combat
for people from middle class to cope up with pressurizing inflation situation. The tale of
tragedy of lower class people is known by all of us more or less.
Price of different commodities has become matter of anxiety for people from both middle
class and lower class .No one wants to go to market despite having money. For the sake
of survival everyone has to go to market twice or thrice in a week. They are buying rice,
edible oil, wheat flour, pulses, onion, full cream milk powder,vegetables (potato, green
chilli and brinjal), and egg,salt,sugar,chicken,fish and meat. Having gone to market they
are being embarrassed by the price hike. Over the last two years, prices of rice, ata,
lentil, soyabean oil, powdered milk, sugar and many other essential commodities have
been increasing.
The point-to-point inflation has crossed double digit level for the first time in this fiscal
year which was rare in past decade. According to Bangladesh bureau of statistics inflation
rate for February was 10.16percent.This rate in case of food was 12.72 percent. But most
economists overruled that statistics. They said that the real inflation is close to 20percent
at this moment. Any good which could be purchased at 100 in past, that can be purchased
at 111 now. In other sense real income of 100 has reduced to 90 within a year.
To what extent this inflation is increasing? There is a government firm to monitor market
price called Trading Corporation of Bangladesh. But few agree with the report presented
by that firm. But there is no other way. Price of commodities is being monitored by the
information provided by that firm. Following Figure demonstrate that the economy has
been experiencing a creeping inflation over the recent past. Most unique feature of this
inflationary style had been increase in food Prices had been more than that of all-purpose
item prices. These trends had adverse implications particularly for the poorest segments
of the society, given that there has not been any tangible increase in their real income.
2. Inflation (point to point)2007-2008
16
14
12
10 general
Rate
8
6 food
4
2
0
r
ly
ay
ch
r
y
y
be
be
ar
ar
ju
m
ar
em
nu
nu
m
m
ve
ja
ja
pt
no
se
Period
Source: Bangladesh bureau of statistics.
Presence of restrictive business practices (e.g. syndication and hoarding) and other
disruptive actions (e.g. deliberate supply shortages) have also been matter of concerns.
While the market structures of essential goods – both domestically produced and
imported ones – follow a complex structure, these are often characterized by oligopolistic
trends. It also needs to be pointed out that a large part of the domestic price rise is
underwritten by high global prices of food grains and inflationary trends in neighboring
countries.
The earlier exchange rate regime in Bangladesh was adjustable basket peg using a real
effective exchange rate target. Given a nominal exchange rate, the corresponding real
effective rate is estimated. Then it adopted floating exchange rate regime in which the
nominal exchange rate is determined by the market forces of demand and supply of
foreign exchange. Devaluation or fixing a rate lower than it would be in a free exchange
market has been a key feature to stimulate export and discourage imports in a depressed
economy like ours. Unfortunately, Bangladesh is an import based economy and
depreciation of taka will make costs of imports shoot up, and as a penalty cost of our
exports would also go up, making Bangladesh uncompetitive in the global market.
The discussion of inflation in the context of exchange rate regime becomes relevant
because of two major considerations. First a change in the exchange rate causes a change
in the domestic prices of tradable .The prices of non tradable also likely to be effected. As
a result, devaluation places an upward pressure in the inflation rate.
An increased energy price is also likely to contribute to the spiral of food inflation in
Bangladesh in the coming months. The government has recently increased the energy
3. prices in response to the soaring global prices. Prices of diesel and kerosene have been
increased by 21 per cent from the April of this year only 10 months following previous
adjustments. Higher fuel prices, especially the price of diesel which is commonly used in
irrigation pumps have caused the production cost to rise significantly. Strict law
enforcements by the joint forces and the eviction of many roadside markets are also likely
to adversely affect the food inflation situation in Bangladesh. Demolition of local hat and
bazars has not helped either.
The phantom of price rises is in good spirits to strike people with horror. For this people
are accountable by a large degree. People are expecting more than they should expect.
They are forecasting inflation having a slight information and understanding.
Recently inflation in price of stove and kerosene has been seen due to a declaration of gas
supply will be stopped for three days. Hearing that people hurried to market to buy oil-
burning stove, cook able food and kerosene. Suppliers took the chance and inflate the
price of these commodities.
Items Prior to declaration After declaration
stove 100-150 300-350
kerosene 50/ kg 80/kg
There is a famous theory in economics is that adaptive expectation theory. It holds that
people tend to anticipate the rate of inflation based on their previous and current
experience. According to theory: - Anticipation is less true and rate of inflation is more
true. But the thing which is happening is that Anticipation is more true and rate of
inflation is less true. It is being recommended that people should anticipate as rationally
as possible.
Price hike of essential commodities has been one of the prime challenges facing the
Present Caretaker Government (CTG) of Bangladesh. Both the government and the
central bank are now jointly working to ease inflationary pressure on economy. These
joint effort include working against both economic and non-economic factors like failure
to contain high inflationary pressure, electricity, gas, transport and other infrastructure
constraints adversely affecting the country's productive performance; persistence of high
and rising petroleum and food prices in the global market. The food price inflation came
down to 12.92 per cent in March from 14.20 per cent in January on point-to-point basis,
according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) date. Fight against inflation will
continue to minimize its pressure on the economy. The economy has bounced back and it
will get better in the future
In recent months, the present CTG has taken a number of market-based and non-market
measures to stabilize the rising prices. These measures ranged from fiscal measures (e.g.
reduction of import tariff on certain commodities) to direct market interventions (e.g.
opening sales outlets of daily essentials). The care taker government has decided to form
4. a core committee to monitor food prices; stock, supply .Government is also wants to wide
OMS of rice. It is being apprehended that these proactive steps might get partly
neutralized by the recent upward adjustment of fuel prices, and also market dislocation
arising from removal of traders from unauthorized market places. Whatsoever, the
markets of daily essentials have continued to rise revealing a significant gap between the
farmgate price and the consumer price for similar products.
Bangladesh bank advises government to build up emergency food stock. BB is releasing
the US dollar to the commercial banks to settle import payment bills for essential items
particularly food grains. A concerned remained about outlook for inflation underpinned
by supply side constraints, political and strong aggregate demand.
The Bangladesh bank has steadily intensified its intervention in the inter-bank foreign
exchange market to help the banks settle their import bills for food grains, scrap vessels
and gasoline. The central bank has started intervening in the inter-bank foreign exchange
through selling us dollar since October 29 last year aiming to keep the market stable. The
BB has since sold a total $472 million to the commercial banks as part of its intervention
in the market according to the central bank statistics. The central bank is selling the
greenback to the commercial banks. The central bank will continue to move on the basis
of the market demand to help stability of the greenback.
Recent Initiatives of the Government
A. OMS initiatives at the GoB level.
B. OMS initiatives at the private level.
C. Withdrawal of Tariff.
D. Draft Anti-hoarding Act.
Our caretaker government is now considering a pay allowance for the government
servants to help mitigate their financial difficulties due to the price spiral. Undoubtedly,
the government servants would get some relief if their salaries were increased. But what
about millions of underprivileged people of the country who are not government
servants? They are working in various private establishments, mills, factories and
engaging themselves in different types of works fetching a meager income.
And again, it is observed and knowledgeable that whenever our government increased the
pay of the government servants it had an unfavorable shock on the market and the prices
of essential commodities further blast up.
As the rate of inflation is the upshot of a multifaceted relationship of economic factors,
hardly any elite answer exists to deal with the situation. However, the government may
be well advised to focus in the short term on a set of price stabilization policies targeting
a basket of essential products. In the medium term, the government may focus on
increasing domestic production of daily essentials, mitigating their enhanced production
costs and improving their productivity.
5. We trust our government will think about and take the following steps with a view to
reducing the sufferings of the bulk who are vulnerably groaning under the weight of price
hike of essential commodities: -
1. The government may officially identify certain food products as “Essential
Commodities” and declare its intention to maintain stability of prices of such
Commodities through policy and institutional interventions in greater public interest.
2. If possible, government should introduce zero tariffs for selected essential
Commodities (currently zero import tariff has been provided for rice and wheat)
particularly for the ones for which import price is high (e.g. Lentil).
3. Rates of duties and taxes on import of rice, ata, soybean oil, lentil, powered milk, sugar
and other essential commodities may be reduced drastically and if possible totally
withdrawn.
4. Rates of tariff on natural gas, electricity, water supply, railway tickets, municipal
holding tax, government service charges, non-judicial stamps, postage stamps etc may be
cut by 25 to 50 percent.
There is a strong forecast about no chance of decline in price of commodities in near
future. Moreover further increment is most possible. The government is expecting to
increase the price of oil one step further after the passing Boro season. In addition to that
price of gas will also increase. No exception will happen in case of electricity or fertilizer
either. As a result the price of other product and service will also increase. But the light
of hope is bumper harvest of boro. But possibilities of hazards can not be overruled.
Nevertheless people are living in the state of optimism. Let us not charge flood or sidr.
Floods are our regular attendant. Cyclones also revisiting us at an expected basis. The
situation will get deteriorated with the changing world climate.
We have got to create an available food supply with good storage. In that case well-
organized allocation is also needed .We should rely and concentrate on our agricultural
system more being an agricultural country. All authorities and forces should come
forward to win that battle against food crisis and inflation. Let me conclude by quoting
from Bernard Shaw” If all economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a
conclusion”.