1) The document analyzes Japan's economic growth under an export-oriented economy using data from 1996-2015.
2) It finds a long-term cointegrating relationship between GDP and exports, imports, FDI through unit root and cointegration tests. GDP has a positive long-term relationship with exports and negative relationships with imports and FDI.
3) The results indicate exports have played a significant role in Japan's economic growth, more so than imports or FDI, confirming the success of Japan's export-oriented development strategy since the 1860s.
The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of inflation in West Africa, mainly in the WAEMU zone, in order to contribute to improving the conduct of monetary policy. The equation of the exchange of the Quantitative Theory of the Currency and the generalized method of moments (MMG) in dynamic panel is used. Annual data concerning six countries in West Africa and range from 1991 to 2015. The results of the estimation show that in addition to the economic growth rate and the money supply, the devaluation has a significant effect on inflation. As we can see, inflation is not systematically a monetary phenomenon in West Africa. The authorities must therefore seek to determine the optimal threshold for the rate of increase of the money supply.
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Humanities and Social Science. IJHSSI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Humanities and Social Science, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
1) The document examines the impact of inflation on economic growth in Tanzania from 1990-2011. It analyzes the relationship between inflation and GDP growth through correlation coefficients and cointegration techniques.
2) The results suggest that inflation has a negative impact on economic growth in Tanzania. There is no long-run cointegrating relationship between inflation and GDP growth over the period studied.
3) The study aims to measure the responsiveness of changes in GDP to changes in the general price level, in order to provide useful information to policymakers on managing inflation to stimulate economic growth.
The document provides an analysis of the macroeconomic environment and food processing industry in India as it relates to the company Heritage Foods. It analyzes factors such as GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, industrial production, government spending, and their impact on sectors relevant to Heritage Foods like food processing, automotive, IT, and pharmaceuticals. Brexit is also discussed, noting potential impacts such as currency volatility, trade restrictions, and changes to the mobility of professionals that could affect Indian businesses operating in the UK and European Union. The food processing industry in India is poised for major growth and is valued at $39.71 billion currently.
Impact of political stability on the reserves of pakistanKamran Arshad
This document analyzes the impact of political stability on Pakistan's reserves from 1960-2010. It collects data on reserves from the World Bank and analyzes how political and historical events affected reserves. The research finds a strong correlation between political instability and lower reserves through statistical analysis of reserves data and major events in Pakistan's history. Control charts are used to identify relationships between reserves and environmental factors.
Extant literature revealed that international trade plays a key role to address the economic phenomena and can help to earn foreign exchange. Despite the accruable benefits from international trade and the countrys huge oil export that account for about 90 of its foreign exchange earnings, Nigerias trade balance and exchange rate remain unfavourable. The persistent rise in Nigerias exchange rate and unfavourable trade balance in recent time warrants an empirical probe. This study therefore examines the effect of exchange rate, domestic income, foreign income, consumption expenditure, money supply and interest rate on trade balance using a secondary time series data covering a period of thirty years from 1991 2020. The study employed a regression technique of the Ordinary Least Square OLS . All data used were secondary data obtained from the statistical bulletin of Central Bank of Nigeria CBN and National Bureau of Statistics NBS annual publications. After determining stationarity of the study variables using the ADF Statistic, it was discovered that the variables were all integrated at level, first and second difference, and found out to be stationary at their first difference. The study also using Johansen Cointegration Test, found that there is a long run relationship between the variables. Hence, the implication of this result is that there is a long run relationship between trade balance and other variables used in the model. From the result of the OLS, it is observed that exchange rate, domestic income, foreign income and money supply have a positive and significant impact on trade balance in Nigeria. The study recommends that the government should fixed or peg on the exchange rate through the central bank. This will enable the government to buy and sell its own currency against the currency to which it is pegged. The government should strive to reduce inflation to make exports more competitive. The government should also enhance supply side policies to increase long term competitiveness. Edokobi, Tonna David | Okpala, Ngozi Eugenia | Okoye, Nonso John "Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Nexus" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-5 , August 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd45079.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/public-sector-management/45079/exchange-rate-and-trade-balance-nexus/edokobi-tonna-david
DT2 - Indian Inflation - Populism, Politics and Procurement PricesNikhil Mohan
- Aggregate demand in India is weak and weakening, contrary to claims by the RBI.
- India's excess inflation is mostly due to high minimum support prices set by the government for agricultural products.
- Inflation in India has peaked and interest rates set by the RBI have also peaked, so there is no justification for the RBI's recent interest rate hikes.
1. Indonesia has faced economic challenges since gaining independence due to weak management and external factors. The economy grew slowly under President Sukarno but improved significantly under President Suharto, reaching high GDP growth rates. However, Indonesia was hit hard by the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, causing a recession. The economy has since recovered, with GDP growth, lower inflation, and reduced unemployment.
2. Key macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment are analyzed. GDP growth was highest in the 1970s and 1980s but declined during the Asian financial crisis. Inflation spiked in the 1960s but has generally stabilized. Unemployment rose in the 1990s and 2000
The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of inflation in West Africa, mainly in the WAEMU zone, in order to contribute to improving the conduct of monetary policy. The equation of the exchange of the Quantitative Theory of the Currency and the generalized method of moments (MMG) in dynamic panel is used. Annual data concerning six countries in West Africa and range from 1991 to 2015. The results of the estimation show that in addition to the economic growth rate and the money supply, the devaluation has a significant effect on inflation. As we can see, inflation is not systematically a monetary phenomenon in West Africa. The authorities must therefore seek to determine the optimal threshold for the rate of increase of the money supply.
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Humanities and Social Science. IJHSSI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Humanities and Social Science, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
1) The document examines the impact of inflation on economic growth in Tanzania from 1990-2011. It analyzes the relationship between inflation and GDP growth through correlation coefficients and cointegration techniques.
2) The results suggest that inflation has a negative impact on economic growth in Tanzania. There is no long-run cointegrating relationship between inflation and GDP growth over the period studied.
3) The study aims to measure the responsiveness of changes in GDP to changes in the general price level, in order to provide useful information to policymakers on managing inflation to stimulate economic growth.
The document provides an analysis of the macroeconomic environment and food processing industry in India as it relates to the company Heritage Foods. It analyzes factors such as GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, industrial production, government spending, and their impact on sectors relevant to Heritage Foods like food processing, automotive, IT, and pharmaceuticals. Brexit is also discussed, noting potential impacts such as currency volatility, trade restrictions, and changes to the mobility of professionals that could affect Indian businesses operating in the UK and European Union. The food processing industry in India is poised for major growth and is valued at $39.71 billion currently.
Impact of political stability on the reserves of pakistanKamran Arshad
This document analyzes the impact of political stability on Pakistan's reserves from 1960-2010. It collects data on reserves from the World Bank and analyzes how political and historical events affected reserves. The research finds a strong correlation between political instability and lower reserves through statistical analysis of reserves data and major events in Pakistan's history. Control charts are used to identify relationships between reserves and environmental factors.
Extant literature revealed that international trade plays a key role to address the economic phenomena and can help to earn foreign exchange. Despite the accruable benefits from international trade and the countrys huge oil export that account for about 90 of its foreign exchange earnings, Nigerias trade balance and exchange rate remain unfavourable. The persistent rise in Nigerias exchange rate and unfavourable trade balance in recent time warrants an empirical probe. This study therefore examines the effect of exchange rate, domestic income, foreign income, consumption expenditure, money supply and interest rate on trade balance using a secondary time series data covering a period of thirty years from 1991 2020. The study employed a regression technique of the Ordinary Least Square OLS . All data used were secondary data obtained from the statistical bulletin of Central Bank of Nigeria CBN and National Bureau of Statistics NBS annual publications. After determining stationarity of the study variables using the ADF Statistic, it was discovered that the variables were all integrated at level, first and second difference, and found out to be stationary at their first difference. The study also using Johansen Cointegration Test, found that there is a long run relationship between the variables. Hence, the implication of this result is that there is a long run relationship between trade balance and other variables used in the model. From the result of the OLS, it is observed that exchange rate, domestic income, foreign income and money supply have a positive and significant impact on trade balance in Nigeria. The study recommends that the government should fixed or peg on the exchange rate through the central bank. This will enable the government to buy and sell its own currency against the currency to which it is pegged. The government should strive to reduce inflation to make exports more competitive. The government should also enhance supply side policies to increase long term competitiveness. Edokobi, Tonna David | Okpala, Ngozi Eugenia | Okoye, Nonso John "Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Nexus" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-5 , August 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd45079.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/public-sector-management/45079/exchange-rate-and-trade-balance-nexus/edokobi-tonna-david
DT2 - Indian Inflation - Populism, Politics and Procurement PricesNikhil Mohan
- Aggregate demand in India is weak and weakening, contrary to claims by the RBI.
- India's excess inflation is mostly due to high minimum support prices set by the government for agricultural products.
- Inflation in India has peaked and interest rates set by the RBI have also peaked, so there is no justification for the RBI's recent interest rate hikes.
1. Indonesia has faced economic challenges since gaining independence due to weak management and external factors. The economy grew slowly under President Sukarno but improved significantly under President Suharto, reaching high GDP growth rates. However, Indonesia was hit hard by the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, causing a recession. The economy has since recovered, with GDP growth, lower inflation, and reduced unemployment.
2. Key macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment are analyzed. GDP growth was highest in the 1970s and 1980s but declined during the Asian financial crisis. Inflation spiked in the 1960s but has generally stabilized. Unemployment rose in the 1990s and 2000
11.[27 40]the impact of macroeconomic variables on non-oil exports performanc...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that investigated the impact of macroeconomic variables (exchange rate, interest rate, government capital expenditure, government recurrent expenditure) on non-oil exports, the agricultural sector, manufacturing sector, and GDP in Nigeria from 1986-2010. The study used ordinary least squares regression and cointegration analysis. The results showed that exchange rate, government capital expenditure, and government recurrent expenditure were positively related to non-oil exports, agriculture, manufacturing, and GDP, while interest rate was negatively related. Based on these findings, the study recommends increasing investment in non-oil exports, agriculture, and manufacturing, as well as decreasing interest rates and increasing government expenditures.
International Trade and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for UgandaPremier Publishers
International Trade and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for Uganda analyzes the long-run relationship between trade and economic growth in Uganda from 1982 to 2018 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The results show that in the short-run, imports reduced economic growth while exports increased it. However, in the long-run, inflation reduced economic growth. Unit root tests confirmed the variables were integrated of order one (I(1)), allowing for cointegration tests which found a long-run relationship between the variables.
Import, Export and Economic Growth: the Case of Lower Income CountryIOSRJBM
Bangladesh is now considered as a lower middle-incomecountry by the blessing of international trade.Therefore, Bangladesh needs to take an effective policymaking decision in terms of international trade fortheirfurther development. Hence it is important to check whether Bangladesh needs more import or export for its further development. As a result, current research tries to see the relationship between import and GDP growth of Bangladesh by taking 32 years (1981-1992) of time series data.Relevant data were collected from the Bangladesh Bank website and World Bank Database. From the analysis, theresearcherconcludes that import is negatively related with GPD growth as well as GDP growth rate is also negatively related with Import.
THE CHALLENGE OF INFLATION AND ITS CONSUMPTION RELATIONpaperpublications3
Abstract: Indian economy is a developing economy and it faces many challenges from all directions. It also faces some extra challenges not only economic but also from other sectors of society. In this paper the challenge of inflation and its consumption relation is explained. Many economic experts and political world leaders accused Indian consumers for the world inflation rise. Indian particularly middle and lower income families feet the heat of the inflation more intensively than higher income group peoples. Inflation is basically problem of demand and supply equation, but many other factors also involved in it. Some dilemma of the inflation is presented in this paper. Not only people of India but also the central and states governments are also afraid of inflation. Many economists we well as politicians assumed that inflation is affecting the consumption or the consumer is the cause of inflation.
This document discusses inflation and its impact on the Indian stock market. It begins with an abstract that outlines how the relationship between stock prices and inflation has been extensively researched. The document then discusses the objectives of studying the impact of inflation on various Indian stock indexes like BSE SENSEX, NSE NIFTY, NIFTY Bank, and BSE FMCG based on yearly data. It acknowledges those who helped with the research. The contents section provides an outline covering topics like the different types of inflation, its causes and effects, a comparison of inflation and GDP, the stock market, and analyses of various stock indexes in relation to inflation.
This document discusses inflation in India. It provides definitions of inflation and how it is calculated in India using the Wholesale Price Index. Several factors that cause inflation in India are discussed, including excess money supply, high demand for goods and services, increased production and labor costs, high interest rates, taxes, and supply shocks. The inflation rate in India was last reported at 9.72% in September 2011. Future inflation in India is expected to remain high due to strong economic growth, rising commodity prices, and ongoing food inflation issues.
Economic indicators provide information about economic performance and allow analysis of business cycles. Some key economic indicators mentioned in the document include GDP, fiscal deficit, Sensex stock index, CPI inflation index, HDI human development index, and balance of payments. GDP measures total economic output, fiscal deficit is the gap between government spending and revenues, Sensex tracks the Bombay stock exchange, CPI measures inflation, HDI assesses health, education and income, and balance of payments tracks international monetary transactions.
impact of monetary policy on economic growth: a case study of south Africa
ini hasil diskusi bersama untuk menyelesaikan studi kasus makroekonomi, khususnya kebijakan moneter
Impact of Visual Merchandising on Impulsive Buying Behavior of Sri Lankan Mod...YogeshIJTSRD
This document discusses a study on the impact of visual merchandising on impulsive buying behavior among Sri Lankan modern trade customers. It finds that product displays and promotional signs have a strong positive impact on impulsive purchases. The document provides background on visual merchandising and impulsive buying behavior. It also reviews theories and factors related to impulsive buying, such as consumer emotions and retail environment characteristics. Visual merchandising techniques aim to attract customers and elicit desires to influence spontaneous purchasing.
The agricultural sector in Eswatini is viewed as an engine to foster economic growth, reduce poverty and eradicate inequality. The purpose of the study was to investigate the effects of monetary policy on the agriculture Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Eswatini using annual data for the period starting from 1980 to 2016. Using the Vector Error Correction model (VEC), the empirical results indicated that in the long run, agriculture GDP, exchange rate, interest rate, inflation, broad money supply, and agriculture credit have a negative effect on agriculture GDP in Eswatini. In the short run the study indicated that the variation in agriculture GDP is largely significant caused by the lagged agricultural GDP, interest rate, exchange rate as well as inflation. Money supply and agriculture credit contribute 0.46% and 0.55%, respectively to the variation in agricultural GDP. The study recommends that programs aimed at availing affordable credit to farmers should be prioritized to cushion the agriculture sector against adverse monetary policy shocks in the short to medium term, specifically interest rates, to ensure continuous production.
This paper looks in detail at the sharp slowdown in the Brazilian economy for the years 2011-2014,in which economic growth averaged only 2.1 percent annually,as compared with 4.4 percent in the 2004-2010 period. The latter level of growth was also more than double Brazil’s average annual growth rate over the prior 23 years (although it was much lower than the pre-1980 period). It is important to understand why the higher rate of growth experienced from 2004 to 2010 was not
sustained over the past few years.
The authors argue that the slowdown is overwhelmingly the result of a sharp decline in domestic
demand, rather than a fall in exports and even less any change in external financial conditions. The sharp fall in domestic demand, in turn, is shown to be a result of deliberate policy decisions made by the government. This decision to slow the economy was not necessary, i.e., it was not made in response to some external constraint such as a balance-of-payments problem.
This document analyzes the impact of China opening its tourism policy to allow Chinese tourists to travel to Taiwan in July 2008. It finds:
1) Using time series analysis, it finds Chinese tourists significantly reduced the number of international tourists to Taiwan from Japan and the US, showing evidence of crowding out, but not tourists from Hong Kong.
2) Even as Taiwan increased its tourism capacity, this crowding out effect occurred, indicating further opening the policy could enlarge the negative impact.
3) The results suggest Taiwan should either further boost its tourism capacity or slow its opening policy to Chinese tourists to avoid severe crowding out harming its overall tourism industry.
This study analyzed the relationship between asset prices and economic growth in India. The researchers used data from India's major stock markets (BSE and NSE) to represent asset prices, and the Index of Industrial Production to represent economic growth. A rolling correlation analysis found the relationship between asset prices and growth varied over time and occasionally showed negative correlation. Regression analysis indicated a generally positive relationship, though shocks can cause variation. Periods of high volatility in the stock markets coincided with higher positive correlation between asset prices and economic growth.
The document discusses key economic indicators used to measure a nation's performance in achieving economic goals of full employment, stable prices, and economic growth. It defines GDP as the total value of final goods and services produced, and real GDP as GDP adjusted for inflation. Unemployment is measured by the unemployment rate, and price levels changes by the Consumer Price Index. However, these measures are imperfect as CPI baskets may not reflect all spending, and unemployment excludes discouraged workers.
Monetary Policy and Trade Balance in NigeriaYogeshIJTSRD
Nigeria apex bank Central Bank of Nigeria CBN has continued to battle with the job of reviving the ailing economy and putting it on the path of growth. The economy has witnessed unprecedented job loss, rising poverty level, accelerating inflation, sluggish economic growth and disequilibrium in the balance of trade. The study therefore examine the effect of monetary policy on trade balance in Nigeria. Specifically the study ascertained the extent to which inflation, demand deposit, liquidity ratio, exchange rate and interest rate have influenced trade balance in Nigeria using an econometric regression model of the Ordinary Least Square OLS . From the result of the OLS, it is observed that monetary policy rate, demand deposit, liquidity ratio and exchange rate have a significant positive impact on foreign trade in Nigeria. This means that increases in monetary policy rate, demand deposit, liquidity ratio and exchange rate, will lead to increase in foreign trade in Nigeria. On the other, inflation rate and interest rate has a significant negative impact on foreign trade in Nigeria, meaning that as inflation rate and interest rate increases, will be bring about a decline in foreign trade in Nigeria. Based on the findings of this study, the study recommends that the government should employ a contractionary monetary policy to fight inflation by reducing the money supply in the country through decreased bond price. inflation, demand deposit, liquidity ratio, exchange rate and interest rate have influenced trade balance in Nigeria. The government should intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to build reserves for themselves or provide them to the bank to help stabilize the exchange rate. The government should strive to improve trade performance in the short and long run. They should also reduce government spending and tax capital inflow. Edokobi, Tonna David | Okpala, Ngozi Eugenia | Okoye, Nonso John "Monetary Policy and Trade Balance in Nigeria" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-5 , August 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd45080.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/public-sector-management/45080/monetary-policy-and-trade-balance-in-nigeria/edokobi-tonna-david
Impact of exports on economic growth of ecowas countries a comparative analys...Jean Michel Kodjané
This document is a project report submitted in partial fulfillment of a Master of Business Administration degree. It examines the impact of exports on economic growth in ECOWAS countries through a comparative analysis. The report includes a declaration by the author, a certificate from the project supervisor, acknowledgements, table of contents, list of abbreviations and an abstract. It provides an overview of ECOWAS and profiles key member countries including Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde and Cote d'Ivoire. The report analyzes the composition and contribution of exports in these countries' economies.
Assignment on Current Economic ConditionsAnurag Verma
This document is an assignment submitted by students for their MBA program. It contains summaries of key economic concepts related to growth and inflation in India. The assignment discusses issues like stagflation, nominal vs real GDP, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), and how inflation is measured using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI). The students analyze factors influencing India's current economic environment of high inflation and low growth.
This document discusses key economic concepts including the circular flow of income, GDP, the economic cycle, recession, and economic indicators. It defines the circular flow of income as showing flows of goods and services between households and firms. GDP is defined as the total market value of goods and services produced within a country in a year. The economic cycle and recession refer to periods of decline and growth in economic activity. Economic indicators such as inflation, interest rates, and Euribor are also defined.
Trends in the main macroeconomics indicators of BangladeshFahad Aziz
The document analyzes trends in major macroeconomic indicators in Bangladesh since the 1970s. It finds that GDP growth has increased since the 1990s and averaged around 6% in the last 5 years. There has been a structural shift from an agriculture-led economy to an industry-led economy. Revenue as a percentage of GDP has gradually increased but remains one of the lowest in the world. Financial deepening, as measured by the money to GDP ratio, has increased steadily. The government has reformed debt management and developed the domestic bond market.
An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Economic Openness and Economic...Editor IJCATR
Economic openness is the measure of economic activity in the country comprehensive index. How is economic openness indicator measured? Chinese economy has experienced rapid growth for more many years, what is on earth the effect of economic opening on Chinese economic growth? The answer to this question will provide instructive revelation about the selection of Chinese reasonable opening policy. Economic openness is measured by trade openness, foreign investment openness and financial openness in this paper. Based on Solow economic growth model and beginning with foreign trade, foreign investment and financial development, this paper made regression analysis using Chinese data from 1985 to 2004. The empirical analysis indicates that the domestic capital input is still the primary element that promotes Chinese economic growth, by contrast, the effect of foreign trade and foreign investment on Chinese economic growth is faint. Again, financial development on the impetus of economic growth in China has a room to rise.
Based on the data of Japanese Prime metropolitan area from 1955 to 2013, this paper studies the effect of industry agglomeration and population aggregation on economic growth in Tokyo metropolitan area. Through the processing of the panel data, we find that the industry agglomeration in Japanese Prime metropolitan region has apparently positive impacts on its economic growth, and also, population aggregation can positively effects its economic growth. Following this paper is try to carry out research on Tokyo —the core city of Japanese Prime metropolitan area, to study the influence of industry agglomeration on its economic growth. This paper thinks that in the process of the development of the city group, due to resource constraints, the manufacturing output unit of land demand big industry will gradually from the degree of economic development is relatively high in the whole city and the city to evacuate, inside, labor resources are gradually to the regional flow of high GDP per capita output.
11.[27 40]the impact of macroeconomic variables on non-oil exports performanc...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that investigated the impact of macroeconomic variables (exchange rate, interest rate, government capital expenditure, government recurrent expenditure) on non-oil exports, the agricultural sector, manufacturing sector, and GDP in Nigeria from 1986-2010. The study used ordinary least squares regression and cointegration analysis. The results showed that exchange rate, government capital expenditure, and government recurrent expenditure were positively related to non-oil exports, agriculture, manufacturing, and GDP, while interest rate was negatively related. Based on these findings, the study recommends increasing investment in non-oil exports, agriculture, and manufacturing, as well as decreasing interest rates and increasing government expenditures.
International Trade and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for UgandaPremier Publishers
International Trade and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for Uganda analyzes the long-run relationship between trade and economic growth in Uganda from 1982 to 2018 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The results show that in the short-run, imports reduced economic growth while exports increased it. However, in the long-run, inflation reduced economic growth. Unit root tests confirmed the variables were integrated of order one (I(1)), allowing for cointegration tests which found a long-run relationship between the variables.
Import, Export and Economic Growth: the Case of Lower Income CountryIOSRJBM
Bangladesh is now considered as a lower middle-incomecountry by the blessing of international trade.Therefore, Bangladesh needs to take an effective policymaking decision in terms of international trade fortheirfurther development. Hence it is important to check whether Bangladesh needs more import or export for its further development. As a result, current research tries to see the relationship between import and GDP growth of Bangladesh by taking 32 years (1981-1992) of time series data.Relevant data were collected from the Bangladesh Bank website and World Bank Database. From the analysis, theresearcherconcludes that import is negatively related with GPD growth as well as GDP growth rate is also negatively related with Import.
THE CHALLENGE OF INFLATION AND ITS CONSUMPTION RELATIONpaperpublications3
Abstract: Indian economy is a developing economy and it faces many challenges from all directions. It also faces some extra challenges not only economic but also from other sectors of society. In this paper the challenge of inflation and its consumption relation is explained. Many economic experts and political world leaders accused Indian consumers for the world inflation rise. Indian particularly middle and lower income families feet the heat of the inflation more intensively than higher income group peoples. Inflation is basically problem of demand and supply equation, but many other factors also involved in it. Some dilemma of the inflation is presented in this paper. Not only people of India but also the central and states governments are also afraid of inflation. Many economists we well as politicians assumed that inflation is affecting the consumption or the consumer is the cause of inflation.
This document discusses inflation and its impact on the Indian stock market. It begins with an abstract that outlines how the relationship between stock prices and inflation has been extensively researched. The document then discusses the objectives of studying the impact of inflation on various Indian stock indexes like BSE SENSEX, NSE NIFTY, NIFTY Bank, and BSE FMCG based on yearly data. It acknowledges those who helped with the research. The contents section provides an outline covering topics like the different types of inflation, its causes and effects, a comparison of inflation and GDP, the stock market, and analyses of various stock indexes in relation to inflation.
This document discusses inflation in India. It provides definitions of inflation and how it is calculated in India using the Wholesale Price Index. Several factors that cause inflation in India are discussed, including excess money supply, high demand for goods and services, increased production and labor costs, high interest rates, taxes, and supply shocks. The inflation rate in India was last reported at 9.72% in September 2011. Future inflation in India is expected to remain high due to strong economic growth, rising commodity prices, and ongoing food inflation issues.
Economic indicators provide information about economic performance and allow analysis of business cycles. Some key economic indicators mentioned in the document include GDP, fiscal deficit, Sensex stock index, CPI inflation index, HDI human development index, and balance of payments. GDP measures total economic output, fiscal deficit is the gap between government spending and revenues, Sensex tracks the Bombay stock exchange, CPI measures inflation, HDI assesses health, education and income, and balance of payments tracks international monetary transactions.
impact of monetary policy on economic growth: a case study of south Africa
ini hasil diskusi bersama untuk menyelesaikan studi kasus makroekonomi, khususnya kebijakan moneter
Impact of Visual Merchandising on Impulsive Buying Behavior of Sri Lankan Mod...YogeshIJTSRD
This document discusses a study on the impact of visual merchandising on impulsive buying behavior among Sri Lankan modern trade customers. It finds that product displays and promotional signs have a strong positive impact on impulsive purchases. The document provides background on visual merchandising and impulsive buying behavior. It also reviews theories and factors related to impulsive buying, such as consumer emotions and retail environment characteristics. Visual merchandising techniques aim to attract customers and elicit desires to influence spontaneous purchasing.
The agricultural sector in Eswatini is viewed as an engine to foster economic growth, reduce poverty and eradicate inequality. The purpose of the study was to investigate the effects of monetary policy on the agriculture Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Eswatini using annual data for the period starting from 1980 to 2016. Using the Vector Error Correction model (VEC), the empirical results indicated that in the long run, agriculture GDP, exchange rate, interest rate, inflation, broad money supply, and agriculture credit have a negative effect on agriculture GDP in Eswatini. In the short run the study indicated that the variation in agriculture GDP is largely significant caused by the lagged agricultural GDP, interest rate, exchange rate as well as inflation. Money supply and agriculture credit contribute 0.46% and 0.55%, respectively to the variation in agricultural GDP. The study recommends that programs aimed at availing affordable credit to farmers should be prioritized to cushion the agriculture sector against adverse monetary policy shocks in the short to medium term, specifically interest rates, to ensure continuous production.
This paper looks in detail at the sharp slowdown in the Brazilian economy for the years 2011-2014,in which economic growth averaged only 2.1 percent annually,as compared with 4.4 percent in the 2004-2010 period. The latter level of growth was also more than double Brazil’s average annual growth rate over the prior 23 years (although it was much lower than the pre-1980 period). It is important to understand why the higher rate of growth experienced from 2004 to 2010 was not
sustained over the past few years.
The authors argue that the slowdown is overwhelmingly the result of a sharp decline in domestic
demand, rather than a fall in exports and even less any change in external financial conditions. The sharp fall in domestic demand, in turn, is shown to be a result of deliberate policy decisions made by the government. This decision to slow the economy was not necessary, i.e., it was not made in response to some external constraint such as a balance-of-payments problem.
This document analyzes the impact of China opening its tourism policy to allow Chinese tourists to travel to Taiwan in July 2008. It finds:
1) Using time series analysis, it finds Chinese tourists significantly reduced the number of international tourists to Taiwan from Japan and the US, showing evidence of crowding out, but not tourists from Hong Kong.
2) Even as Taiwan increased its tourism capacity, this crowding out effect occurred, indicating further opening the policy could enlarge the negative impact.
3) The results suggest Taiwan should either further boost its tourism capacity or slow its opening policy to Chinese tourists to avoid severe crowding out harming its overall tourism industry.
This study analyzed the relationship between asset prices and economic growth in India. The researchers used data from India's major stock markets (BSE and NSE) to represent asset prices, and the Index of Industrial Production to represent economic growth. A rolling correlation analysis found the relationship between asset prices and growth varied over time and occasionally showed negative correlation. Regression analysis indicated a generally positive relationship, though shocks can cause variation. Periods of high volatility in the stock markets coincided with higher positive correlation between asset prices and economic growth.
The document discusses key economic indicators used to measure a nation's performance in achieving economic goals of full employment, stable prices, and economic growth. It defines GDP as the total value of final goods and services produced, and real GDP as GDP adjusted for inflation. Unemployment is measured by the unemployment rate, and price levels changes by the Consumer Price Index. However, these measures are imperfect as CPI baskets may not reflect all spending, and unemployment excludes discouraged workers.
Monetary Policy and Trade Balance in NigeriaYogeshIJTSRD
Nigeria apex bank Central Bank of Nigeria CBN has continued to battle with the job of reviving the ailing economy and putting it on the path of growth. The economy has witnessed unprecedented job loss, rising poverty level, accelerating inflation, sluggish economic growth and disequilibrium in the balance of trade. The study therefore examine the effect of monetary policy on trade balance in Nigeria. Specifically the study ascertained the extent to which inflation, demand deposit, liquidity ratio, exchange rate and interest rate have influenced trade balance in Nigeria using an econometric regression model of the Ordinary Least Square OLS . From the result of the OLS, it is observed that monetary policy rate, demand deposit, liquidity ratio and exchange rate have a significant positive impact on foreign trade in Nigeria. This means that increases in monetary policy rate, demand deposit, liquidity ratio and exchange rate, will lead to increase in foreign trade in Nigeria. On the other, inflation rate and interest rate has a significant negative impact on foreign trade in Nigeria, meaning that as inflation rate and interest rate increases, will be bring about a decline in foreign trade in Nigeria. Based on the findings of this study, the study recommends that the government should employ a contractionary monetary policy to fight inflation by reducing the money supply in the country through decreased bond price. inflation, demand deposit, liquidity ratio, exchange rate and interest rate have influenced trade balance in Nigeria. The government should intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to build reserves for themselves or provide them to the bank to help stabilize the exchange rate. The government should strive to improve trade performance in the short and long run. They should also reduce government spending and tax capital inflow. Edokobi, Tonna David | Okpala, Ngozi Eugenia | Okoye, Nonso John "Monetary Policy and Trade Balance in Nigeria" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-5 , August 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd45080.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/public-sector-management/45080/monetary-policy-and-trade-balance-in-nigeria/edokobi-tonna-david
Impact of exports on economic growth of ecowas countries a comparative analys...Jean Michel Kodjané
This document is a project report submitted in partial fulfillment of a Master of Business Administration degree. It examines the impact of exports on economic growth in ECOWAS countries through a comparative analysis. The report includes a declaration by the author, a certificate from the project supervisor, acknowledgements, table of contents, list of abbreviations and an abstract. It provides an overview of ECOWAS and profiles key member countries including Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde and Cote d'Ivoire. The report analyzes the composition and contribution of exports in these countries' economies.
Assignment on Current Economic ConditionsAnurag Verma
This document is an assignment submitted by students for their MBA program. It contains summaries of key economic concepts related to growth and inflation in India. The assignment discusses issues like stagflation, nominal vs real GDP, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), and how inflation is measured using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI). The students analyze factors influencing India's current economic environment of high inflation and low growth.
This document discusses key economic concepts including the circular flow of income, GDP, the economic cycle, recession, and economic indicators. It defines the circular flow of income as showing flows of goods and services between households and firms. GDP is defined as the total market value of goods and services produced within a country in a year. The economic cycle and recession refer to periods of decline and growth in economic activity. Economic indicators such as inflation, interest rates, and Euribor are also defined.
Trends in the main macroeconomics indicators of BangladeshFahad Aziz
The document analyzes trends in major macroeconomic indicators in Bangladesh since the 1970s. It finds that GDP growth has increased since the 1990s and averaged around 6% in the last 5 years. There has been a structural shift from an agriculture-led economy to an industry-led economy. Revenue as a percentage of GDP has gradually increased but remains one of the lowest in the world. Financial deepening, as measured by the money to GDP ratio, has increased steadily. The government has reformed debt management and developed the domestic bond market.
An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Economic Openness and Economic...Editor IJCATR
Economic openness is the measure of economic activity in the country comprehensive index. How is economic openness indicator measured? Chinese economy has experienced rapid growth for more many years, what is on earth the effect of economic opening on Chinese economic growth? The answer to this question will provide instructive revelation about the selection of Chinese reasonable opening policy. Economic openness is measured by trade openness, foreign investment openness and financial openness in this paper. Based on Solow economic growth model and beginning with foreign trade, foreign investment and financial development, this paper made regression analysis using Chinese data from 1985 to 2004. The empirical analysis indicates that the domestic capital input is still the primary element that promotes Chinese economic growth, by contrast, the effect of foreign trade and foreign investment on Chinese economic growth is faint. Again, financial development on the impetus of economic growth in China has a room to rise.
Based on the data of Japanese Prime metropolitan area from 1955 to 2013, this paper studies the effect of industry agglomeration and population aggregation on economic growth in Tokyo metropolitan area. Through the processing of the panel data, we find that the industry agglomeration in Japanese Prime metropolitan region has apparently positive impacts on its economic growth, and also, population aggregation can positively effects its economic growth. Following this paper is try to carry out research on Tokyo —the core city of Japanese Prime metropolitan area, to study the influence of industry agglomeration on its economic growth. This paper thinks that in the process of the development of the city group, due to resource constraints, the manufacturing output unit of land demand big industry will gradually from the degree of economic development is relatively high in the whole city and the city to evacuate, inside, labor resources are gradually to the regional flow of high GDP per capita output.
This document provides an overview of China's economic development from 1979 to the present. It discusses how China implemented economic reforms beginning in 1979, including establishing special economic zones, decentralizing economic policymaking, encouraging private businesses and foreign investment. As a result of these reforms, China's economy has grown substantially faster than during the pre-reform period, with an average annual growth rate of around 10% between 1979-2010. China has become the world's second largest economy and largest exporter, achieving unprecedented economic growth and dramatically improving living standards.
This study is about the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on economic growth of Bangladesh. Economic growth of Bangladesh is measured in terms of annual nominal GDP growth rate. Least squared regression model has been employed considering exchange rate, export, import and inflation rate as independent variables and gross domestic product as the dependent variable in this study. The results reveal that export and import have significant positive impact on GDP growth rate. The other variables (exchange rate and inflation) are not significant, indicating that there exists no significant relationship among the variables. The findings will help the policy makers to make policies concerning the country’s economic growth to remain robust in the near future.
People’s Republic of China which was founded in 1949 was in the position of a self-enclosed economy. Together with the economic reforms carried out in 1980s, China has entered into a transition period from socialist system to free market economy. Together with these reforms, China became a member of IMF in 1989 and World Trade Organization in 2001. As a result of these international expansion policies, the country takes the attention with its high growing rates and becomes the focus of the international capital. Especially after the country became a member in World Trade Organization in 2001, foreign trade volume has expanded and foreign direct investment flow is increased. Foreign trade reforms in China are analyzed in this study because of the outstanding growth in Chinese trade in recent years.
Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth in China Since 1980iosrjce
The aim of this study is to explore the causality relationship between the foreign trade and economic
growth of Chinese economy using time series data running from 1980 to 2013.Co integration, Granger
Causality analysis and Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) has been used in order to test the
hypotheses about the presence of causality and co integration between the two variables. The co integration test
confirmed that foreign trade and GDP are co integrated, indicating an existence of long run equilibrium
relationship between the two as confirmed by the Johansen co integration test results. The Granger causality
test finally confirmed the presence of bi-directional causality.
The Relation Between Exports of Main Products And Economic Growth of Key Econ...inventionjournals
This paper clarifies the literature of key product export growth and regional economic growth. The paper analyses impacts of key product export on regional economic growth and vice versa. The paper provides recent empirical evidence of the relation. Besides an evaluation of the recent relation between export growth and economic growth in Viet Nam, the paper assesses the relation between key product export and economic growth during 1996-2012 period based on quantitative and qualitative approaches. With constructed models, the paper examines the relation between key product export and economic growth and concludes that it is positive. The research findings show that key product export in every economic region contributes positively to regional economic growth although it varies in different regions. Based on existing literature and empirical analysis, the paper provides a number of strategies to improve key product export contribution to key economic regions in the most effective manner and vice versa. The paper creates a fundament for researchers and policy makers both regionally and nationally in order for developing effective orientations, policies and measures for promoting export and sustainable eoconomic development.
The Impact of High Government Debt on the Country’s Economic Growth: An Empir...Dr. Kelly YiYu Lin
Japan has been in a recession for more than two decades. During the recessionary period, the country has faced significant structural challenges, such as the demographic problem, the decline in its labor force and a deflationary trend, along with low nominal interest rates. The Japanese government implemented multiple fiscal stimulus packages; however, the effectiveness of these packages on economic recovery is limited. This paper applies ordinary least squares (OLS) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methodologies to investigate what type of exogenous driving forces would assist decision-makers in implementing proactive policies to efficiently restore Japan’s economy to a steady state and whether and to what extent Japan’s government debt affects its GDP.
Agricultural Export, Oil Export and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Multivariate ...Agriculture Journal IJOEAR
Abstract—Sustaining of nation’s economic growth for better footing and outlook is very crucial for the globe of recent, most especially for developing countries like Nigeria. The country as a vivid example of a developing nation is oil based economy, which adopts export promotion policy as the essentialtactic for growth. Yet the nation has not maximized her abundance of resources to aids growth, despite notable economic growth being experienced. In this view, there is an attempt to examine the relationship among agricultural export, oil export and output growth in Nigeria. The causal relationship among the variables was investigated by using times series data for the period between 1981 and 2014. All the macroeconomic variables were found to be stationary. The study revealed that there is significant relationship between economic growth and the agricultural export and oil export. Based on the findings, government of the country is being advised to initiate new and re-defined old policies that will diversify the export base. Likewise, policies that will improveand aid the nation’s domestic production is being encouraged, since long run relationship has been established among the macroeconomic variables.
This document summarizes a research paper that analyzes the effects of international trade on economic growth in China. It begins with an overview of China's rapid economic growth and integration into the global economy. It then reviews literature showing that international trade can positively impact productivity and growth. The paper aims to examine these effects in China through econometric and non-parametric analysis of panel data from 2002-2007. It finds that increasing trade volume and high-tech exports led to productivity gains across Chinese regions, with eastern regions developing most due to greater trade participation.
The document discusses the rise of emerging economies and shifting global economic realities. It notes that emerging economies like China, India, Brazil and others have contributed significantly to stabilizing global growth during recessions, while their share of global GDP, trade and investment is increasing. It argues that partnerships between advanced and emerging economies are needed to support shared and balanced global growth going forward. India is positioned to leverage new opportunities from these changes through economic reforms and improved competitiveness.
The impact of inflation, policy rate and government consumption expenditure o...Alexander Decker
This document analyzes the impact of inflation, policy rate, and government consumption expenditure on GDP growth in Ghana from 1980-2010 using time series econometric analysis. The results show:
1) There is a positive long-run relationship between inflation and GDP growth as well as between the policy rate and GDP growth. However, government consumption expenditure has a negative long-run impact on GDP growth.
2) In the short-run, inflation and government consumption expenditure positively impact GDP growth, while the policy rate has an inverse relationship with GDP growth.
3) Of the three variables, only inflation has a statistically significant impact on real GDP growth in Ghana. The study recommends prudent monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabil
This document analyzes the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Qatar from 1980 to 2016. It finds that inflation and economic growth are cointegrated, indicating a long-run relationship. A Granger causality test shows causality runs from inflation to economic growth. The study uses time series analysis methods including unit root tests, Johansen cointegration, and Granger causality tests. Unit root tests show inflation and economic growth are non-stationary in levels but stationary in first differences. Johansen cointegration finds the variables are cointegrated, implying a long-run equilibrium relationship. The Granger causality test then finds causality runs from inflation to economic growth in the long-run.
The document presents an empirical study investigating the nexus between Nigeria's agricultural sector export base and economic growth from 1980 to 2017. It finds that:
1) A cointegrating relationship exists between economic growth, agricultural raw material exports, and food exports in the long run.
2) In the long run, agricultural raw material exports have an inverse effect on economic growth, while food exports have a positive effect.
3) In the short run, positive dynamic influences run from both agricultural raw material and food exports to economic growth.
Government expenditure is a very instrumental demand tool in achieving economic stability and policy makers frequently use it to influence certain economic outcomes. Government expenditure majorly consists of two components: investment and consumption components. Many researchers concede that higher level of government consumption expenditure is growth retarding and therefore undesirable. The aim of this paper was to establish the economic determinants of government consumption expenditure in Kenya. The results showed that in the long-run, while 1USD increase in GDP causes USD1.3 increase in government consumption expenditure, a unit increase in inflation rate would cause USD1.8 increase in consumption expenditure. However, 1USD increase in foreign direct investment and external debt stock causes, respectively, USD 0.07 and USD 2.6 drop in government consumption expenditure. Corruption, democracy and political instability have positive effects on government consumption expenditure in Kenya. Urbanization and population dynamics jointly affect the variable in the short-run. This paper recommends that the government should strengthen its institutions that are mandated to deal with graft cases, create peaceful political setting at all times and ensure a friendly environment to foreign investors.
- The document analyzes the relationship between export, import, and economic growth in Sri Lanka from 1970 to 2010.
- It finds that export and import have a significant positive relationship with each other and both have a significant impact on economic growth. Export and import are associated at 98%, indicating a strong positive association.
- The study uses time series analysis and regression analysis on data from 1970 to 2010. The results show export and import significantly influence economic growth in Sri Lanka.
An analysis of determinants of balance of trade in indiaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a research journal article that analyzes the determinants of India's balance of trade from 1972-2011. It uses econometric techniques like cointegration testing and error correction modeling to examine the long-run and short-run relationships between balance of trade and factors like real exchange rates, domestic consumption, foreign direct investment, and foreign income. The results suggest that in the long-run and short-run, foreign income and FDI have a positive impact on balance of trade, while domestic consumption and real exchange rates negatively impact balance of trade in India. The article provides background on India's trade patterns and deficits over time and describes the data and methodology used in the analysis.
Effect of international trade on economic growth in kenyaAlexander Decker
This document analyzes the effect of international trade on economic growth in Kenya from 1960 to 2010. It uses a multiple linear regression model to examine the relationship between GDP growth rate and several independent variables including exchange rate, inflation, and final government consumption. The findings show that exchange rate had no significant effect on GDP growth, while inflation had a negative and significant effect. Final government consumption had a positive effect on GDP growth in Kenya. The study recommends policies to promote exports, maintain low inflation, and encourage government expenditure on development projects.
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the empirical relationship between exports and economic growth in India from 1972-1973 to 2010-2011 using time series econometric techniques. The study tests for causality and cointegration between GDP and exports. The results found GDP and exports are cointegrated, indicating a long-run equilibrium relationship. Granger causality testing confirmed bidirectional causality between GDP and exports. Error correction estimates also provided evidence of a short-run mutual causal relationship. In conclusion, the study finds support for export-led growth in India.
Trade Liberalization and Trade Flows in Nigeria An Aggregated Analysisijtsrd
This study examines the impact of trade liberalization and trade flows in Nigeria using an econometric regression model of the Ordinary Least Square OLS . From the result of the OLS, it is observed that trade flows and export subsidies have a positive relationship with economic growth. This means that when trade flows and export subsidies are increasing, it will bring about more growth in Nigerian economy. On the other hand, import tariffs, import quotas and export taxes have a negative impact on economic growth in Nigeria. This means that if import tariffs, import quotas and export taxes are falling, there will be increase in economic growth. From the empirical work reviewed, some authors argued that trade liberalization and trade flows is positively related to economic growth while some authors argued that it is negatively related. The findings of the study also show that trade flows, import tariffs, import quotas and export taxes are statistically significant in explaining the Nigerian economy while export subsidy is statistically insignificant. The study therefore recommends that government should encourage import liberalization through reduction in tariff rates, gradual removal of Non-Tariff Barriers NTB , outright banning of certain goods which will ensure that our imports, following trade liberalization, is directed mainly on intermediate and capital goods. Imports of consumables would be brought to nil and therefore there would be a corresponding increase in the production of competitive import. Finally, the government should vigorously seek to improve the international stand of the economy with other economies of the world so as to enlarge the market for Nigerian exports. It should also re-orient its policy towards the external sector and ensure that the sector contribute optimally to output growth. Anionwu, Carol "Trade Liberalization and Trade Flows in Nigeria: An Aggregated Analysis" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-2 | Issue-6 , October 2018, URL: http://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd18911.pdf
Similar to Analysis of Japan s Economic Growth Under the Condition of Extroversion Economy (20)
This study examined the influence of the characteristics of the audit committee on Palestinian firms’ value. The research explores precisely the effect on the Audit Committee characteristics’ efficiency, namely, independence, expertise, evaluating the relationship among dependent and independent variables. Secondary data collected from a list of companies were registered in the Palestine Stock Exchange from 2011 to 2018. Individual variables considered are the independence & expertise of the audit committee, whereas the ROA is employed as the dependent variable as an indicator of a firm’s value. The results showed that the Audit Committee’s independence & expertise substantially positive with ROA. The study concluded that the audit committee’s characteristics are enhancing firm performance. The implications of this study’s findings can be used by decisions and policymakers, the firm’s management, and other stockholders’ interests to create reliable ties between agents and the principals.
There is increasing acceptability of emotional intelligence as a major factor in personality assessment and effective human resource management. Emotional intelligence as the ability to build capacity, empathize, co-operate, motivate and develop others cannot be divorced from both effective performance and human resource management systems. The human person is crucial in defining organizational leadership and fortunes in terms of challenges and opportunities and walking across both multinational and bilateral relationships. The growing complexity of the business world requires a great deal of self-confidence, integrity, communication, conflict, and diversity management to keep the global enterprise within the paths of productivity and sustainability. Using the exploratory research design and 255 participants the result of this original study indicates a strong positive correlation between emotional intelligence and effective human resource management. The paper offers suggestions on further studies between emotional intelligence and human capital development and recommends conflict management as an integral part of effective human resource management.
This paper examines the role of loan characteristics in mortgage default probability for different mortgage lenders in the UK. The accuracy of default prediction is tested with two statistical methods, a probit model and linear discriminant analysis, using a unique dataset of defaulted commercial loan portfolios provided by sixty-six financial institutions. Both models establish that the attributes of the underlying real estate asset and the lender are significant factors in determining default probability for commercial mortgages. In addition to traditional risk factors such as loan-to-value and debt servicing coverage ratio lenders and regulators should consider loan characteristics to assess more accurately probabilities of default.
This study examined the impact of financial innovation on money demand in Nigeria, using quarterly time series for the period 2009-2019. The dependent variable was money demand, represented by broad money, while the independent variable was financial innovation represented by modern payment channels such as volume of Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) transactions, volume of Point of Sales (POS) transactions, volume of Internet banking transactions, and volume of Mobile banking transactions. The study employed the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression technique as the estimation method within the cointegration, granger causality, and error correction modeling. The result obtained showed that financial innovation has mixed impact on money demand in Nigeria during the period of analysis. For instance, financial innovation has positive impact on money demand through volume of ATM transactions in the current period, two periods lagged of volume of mobile banking transactions, current period and one period lagged of volume of internet banking transactions, and current period’s volume of Point of Sales (POS) transactions in Nigeria. On the other hand, financial innovation has negative impact on money demand through one period lagged of volume of point of sales in Nigeria. On the stability of the demand for money function, the result of the stability tests based on the CUSUM test and CUSUM of squares test showed that the demand for money function was stable during the evaluation period. The study recommended that monetary policy strategy of the central bank of Nigeria (CBN) should be fine-tuned to ensure it is well suited to deal with the challenges posed by financial innovation by way of proliferation of sophisticated payment channels.
Equity financing is one of the sources of funding available to non-bank financial institutions which is quite prevalent in developed financial markets for small or start-up firms. This study empirically determined the effect of the Equity Financing Scheme on a sustainable increase in productivity of agro-allied small businesses in Nigeria. Data for this study were elicited through the use of a questionnaire structured in a five-point likert scale. The evaluation of the relationship between the dependent and independent variables was performed using the Ordinary Least Square regression technique. The study revealed that the equity financing scheme had a positive and significant effect on the sustainable productivity of agro-allied small businesses in South-South Nigeria. The study recommended that efforts should be made to educate the small business entrepreneurs on the benefits of equity financing as a viable option towards business growth and expansion and that the government through the various intervention agencies should restructure the long-term loan policies to give access to more growth-oriented agro-allied businesses, to increase their presently low capacity to procure heavy-duty technology to increase productivity and achieve food security in Nigeria. Small business owners should take advantage of the membership of cooperative societies and as well maintain good business relationships with suppliers; this will guarantee a continuous supply of needed materials and uninterrupted operations of the business.
This study seeks to evaluate the impact of public borrowing on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data from 1980 to 2018. Specifically, the study seeks to analyze the effect of domestic debt (proxy by Federal Government Bonds-FGB) and external debt (proxy by International Monetary Fund Loan-IMFL) on Nigerian’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). To achieve this objective, secondary data was collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical bulleting and the Debt Management Office of Nigeria. A multiple regression model involving the dependent variable (GDP) and the independent variables (FGB and IMFL) was formulated and subjected to econometric analysis. These variables were adjusted with the Jarque-bera test of normality while the correlation result was used to check the possibility of multi-collinearity among the variables. The t-test was used to answer the research questions and test the formulated hypotheses at the 5percent statistical level. Results from the analysis show that a positive relationship exists between IMF Loan and Nigeria’s gross domestic product, while a negative relationship exists between FG Bonds and Nigeria’s gross domestic product, which violates the Keynesian theory of public debt. The study concludes that both domestic and external debt significantly affect economic growth in Nigeria. Therefore, it was recommended that public borrowing should be efficiently used and contracted solely for economic reasons and not for social or political reasons as this will help to avoid accumulation of debt stock over time.
Equity investment financing is an innovative way of financing the real sector which has considerable developmental potential. The study empirically determined the effect of Equity investment financing on sustainable increase in productivity among agro-allied small businesses in South-South Nigeria. The instrument of data collection is the research questions structured in a five-point likert scale. The evaluation of the relationship between the dependent and independent variables was performed using the Ordinary Least Square regression technique. The study revealed that equity investment financing has a positive and significant effect on the sustainable productivity of businesses in Nigeria. The study recommended educating small business entrepreneurs on the benefits of equity financing as a viable option towards business growth and expansion and that the government through the various intervention agencies should restructure the long-term loan policies to give access to more growth-oriented agro-allied businesses, to increase their presently low capacity to procure heavy-duty technology to increase productivity and achieve food security in Nigeria. Small business owners should take advantage of the membership of cooperative societies and as well maintain good business relationships with suppliers; this will guarantee a continuous supply of needed materials and uninterrupted operations of the business.
This document summarizes research on extended producer responsibility (EPR) programs for waste oil, e-waste, and end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) in Spain from 2007-2019. The main findings are:
1) Waste oil (SIG) production and e-waste (EEE) were found to be cointegrated variables, with a positive elasticity of 2.4166 for SIG with respect to EEE.
2) SIG and vehicle production (VP) were not found to be cointegrated, indicating an unstable relationship between these variables.
3) Differences in results may be due to EPR for e-waste including deposit refund systems, while EPR for ELVs
In the process of R&D globalization, due to market demand and preferential policies, many multinational companies choose to invest in R&D in China. With the increase of labor costs in coastal areas and the rapid economic development of the central and western regions, multinational companies have already shifted from coastal areas to central and western regions when choosing R&D regions in China, especially in Shaanxi Province. Therefore, studying the character of R&D investment and operating performance of Multinational Corporation in Shaanxi Province has important practical significance. This article uses the data of the R&D investment of multinational corporation in the joint annual inspection of Shaanxi Province in 2018 as the sample and uses EXCEL software to conduct data analysis to gain an in-depth understanding of the character of R&D and investment of multinational corporation in Shaanxi Province, business characteristics and business performance. And it is concluded that the R&D investment of multinational corporation in Shaanxi Province has a series of characteristics such as concentration of distribution, concentration of enterprise scale, and overall good performance of operating performance.
In Bangladesh, migrant worker’s remittances constitute one of the most significant sources of external finance. This paper investigates the existence of relation between remittance inflow and GDP and the causal link between them in Bangladesh by employing the Granger causality test under a VECM framework. Using time series data over a 38 year period, we found that growth in remittances does lead to economic growth in Bangladesh. In addition to the relationship, this paper also points out some issues that are working as impediments in getting remittance and give some recommendations to overcome those impediments.
In the context of the 4.0 revolution, technology applications, especially cloud computing will have strong impacts on all areas, including accounting systems of enterprises. Cloud computing contributes to helping the enterprise accounting apparatus become compact, help automate the input process, improve the accuracy of the input data. Besides, the issur of accounting, reporting, risk control and information security also became better, contributing to improving the effectiveness of accounting. However, besides the positive impacts, businesses also face many difficulties in deploying and applying cloud computing. However, this application requirement will become an inevitable trend contributing to improving the operational efficiency of enterprises. To promote this process requires from the State as well as businesses themselves must have awareness and appropriate decisions. Breakthroughs in information technology have dramatically changed the accounting industry and the creation of financial statements. The Internet and the technologies that use the power of the Internet are playing an important role in the management and accounting activities of businesses - who always tend to be ready to receive and use public innovations technology in collecting, storing, processing and reporting information.
In recent years, Vietnam has joined international intergration by strong export agreements of bilateral and multilateral; Vietnam’s merchandise export in 1995 was only US $5.4 billion, in 2018 Vietnam’s merchandise export increased by 45 times compared to 1995 with US $244 billion. Vietnam’s imports increased by 29 times in 2018 compared to 1995. This study is an attempt to test a method of estimating the influence of exports on several Supply-sidefactors such as production value, value added and imports through the expansion of the standard system W. Leontief I.O and Miyazawa-style economic-demographic relations. This study also tries to make an experiment in the “Leontief Paradox”.The result is that Vietnam’s export value spread to production and imports but spread low to added value, especially in the processing industry group’s fabrication. The study is based on the non-competitive I.O table in 2012 and 2018 with 16 sectors.
The profitability of commercial banks is influenced by a number of internal and external factors. This paper attempts to identify the internal factors which significantly influence the profitability of commercial banks in Bangladesh. In this study, profitability is measured by ROA and ROE which may be significantly influenced by the internal factors such as IRS, NIM, CAR, CR, DG, LD, CTI and SIZE of the bank. Data are collected from published annual reports during 2014--2018 of 23 commercial banks. Using simple regression model, it is found that CR has significant effect on the profitability and CAR has significant influence on ROA only. In addition to this, DG has significant effects on PCBs’ profitability (ROE only) where as IRS and CTI have significant influence on profitability (ROA only) of ICBs. Further, none of these variables have significant effects on the profitability of SCBs but CAR and CR are correlated with profitability (ROA only) and the causes may be the nature of services provided by SCBs to its clients. The internal policy makers should manage the influential internal factors of the banks in order to increase their profitability so that they can meet stakeholders’ expectations.
Using a series of econometric techniques, the study analysed interaction between monetary policy and private sector credit in Ghana. This study made use of monthly dataset spanning January 1999 to December 2019 of credit to the private sector (PSC) and broad money supply (M2). The results reveal that there exists cointegration, a long run stationary relation between monetary policy and private sector credit. This implies, increases in credit should prompt long-term increases in monetary policy. It is not surprising that growth in the private sector might have a stronger effect on monetary policy. The Error Correction Test is statistically significant and that all the variables demonstrate similar adjustment speeds. This implies that in the short run, both money supply and credit are somewhat equally responsive to their last period’s equilibrium error. There is unidirectional causation from private sector credit to monetary policy. It can be said that, there is an interaction between money supply and private sector credit. Thus, credit to private sector holds great potential in promoting economic growth. It can be recommended to the government to increase the credit flow to the private sector because of its strategic importance in creating and generating growth of the economy.
This paper investigates if forecasting models based on Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms are capable to predict intraday prices in the small, frontier stock market of Romania. The results show that this is indeed the case. Moreover, the prediction accuracy of the various models improves as the forecasting horizon increases. Overall, ML forecasting models are superior to the passive buy and hold strategy, as well as to a naïve strategy that always predicts the last known price action will continue. However, we also show that this superior predictive ability cannot be converted into “abnormal”, economically significant profits after considering transaction costs. This implies that intraday stock prices incorporate information within the accepted bounds of weak-form market efficiency, and cannot be “timed” even by sophisticated investors equipped with state of the art ML prediction models.
Applying the Arrow-Debreu-Mundell-Fleming model as an economic standard model, with combining axiological framework and epistemological model, it is proposed to analyze economic policies with using a synthetic model, where interest, exchange and tax rates are integrated together. Except normal monetary and fiscal policies mainly via interest and tax rates, there are feasible ways to utilize modified strategies via exchange and tax rates. When ones need to simulate national local market, ones can raise the exchange rate. Otherwise, when ones need to promote international global trade, ones may lower the exchange rate. It is found that tax reduction is good policy when tax rate is higher than normal and that tax increase is good social policy when tax rate is lower than normal, during economic depression. Also it is revealed that tax reduction is good social policy when tax rate is lower than normal, and that tax increase is good policy when tax rate is higher than normal, during economic overheat. While economic system seeks efficiency and social system pursues equality, common interest modifications with elastic exchange and tax rates could be applied for balancing efficiency and equality.
In recent times, agricultural sector has returned to the forefront of development issues in Nigeria given its contribution to employment creation, sustainable food supply and provision of raw materials to other sectors of the economy. In lieu of that, this study examines the impact of agriculture on the economic growth in Nigeria using annual time series data covering the sample period of 1981 to 2018. To analyse the data collected, Autoregression Distributed Lag (ARDL) model through the bounds testing framework is employed to measure the presence of cointegrating relations between real GDP, agricultural productivity, labour force, and agricultural export. Results show the presence of both short-run and long-run relationship among the variables, and that agriculture has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. These findings inform the Nigerian government on the need to expedite labour force (human capital) and agricultural export (non-oil) development with the view to achieving sustainable growth and development. In addition, developing skills and competencies of labour force through capacity building in the agricultural sector will encourage research and development thereby increase the export size, hence essential for long-term growth.
The article illustrates the results of the economic development of the first fifteen years of the XXI century under the conditions of unprecedented economic freedom, globalization and the appearance of new informational sectors up to and including the first attempts at revising liberalism. The analysis of statistical data demonstrates an obvious increase in the percentage of well-off people in many countries as well as the increased economic capabilities of small, medium and large businesses, whose assets are distributed among an ever-increasing number of owners. This provides the impetus to review our collective approach to liberalization and globalization, as well as to view its unexpected strong sides that make human progress possible.
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Analysis of Japan s Economic Growth Under the Condition of Extroversion Economy
1. International Journal of Economics
and Financial Research
ISSN(e): 2411-9407, ISSN(p): 2413-8533
Vol. 3, No. 8, pp: 114-118, 2017
URL: http://arpgweb.com/?ic=journal&journal=5&info=aims
*Corresponding Author
114
Academic Research Publishing Group
Analysis of Japan's Economic Growth Under the Condition of
Extroversion Economy
Wang Tao School of Economics and Management, Xidian University, China
Ding Zhuqing*
School of Economics and Management, Xidian University, China
1. Introduction
Export-oriented economic activity is an important manifestation of the integration of economies with global
production activities, and it is an important factor affecting the economic development of the economy. With the
deepening of economic globalization, the influence of economic extroversion on economic development is
expanding. In the analysis of existing literature, scholars were more interested in econometric analysis in the analysis
of the impact of economic extroversion.
From the point of view of modeling methodology, co-integration test and Grainger causality test were the most
common modeling method. Gao (2009) did a empirical analysis through the use of co-integration test and Grainger
causality test method with Shandong Province Import and export trade and GDP growth data, the results confirmed
the existence of a number of notable one-way Granger causal relationship between Shandong export , import and
economic growth , and there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship and short-term dynamic equilibrium
relationship between Shandong export , import and economic growth. Wang (2012) analyzed the causal relationship
between economic growth and the export-oriented economy of Zhengzhou city by using co-integration test and
Grainger test , based on the perspective of foreign trade, It was found that there is a two-way causal relationship
between export trade and economic growth, and a individual causal relationship exists between FDI and economic
growth. Using China’s import , export andGDP data from 1982-2012, Huo (2015), performed empirical tests
between them in the short term dynamic relationship through VAR model, co-integration test, impulse response,
Granger test and other methods . Results showed that, in the long run, there is a positive equilibrium relationship
between export trade and economic growth , but in the short term; the influence degree and contribution degree of
export trade on economic growth are more significant, which is the main export-oriented engine influencing China's
economic growth.
From the point of view of choice of variables, most literatures choose Import, export and foreign direct
investment as the main factors that influence economic growth. Han Jiabin and Ma Zhangliang (2012) empirically
analyzed the relationship between China's export and economic growth, and the results showed that there is a
significant positive correlation between China's economic growth and exports. Chen (2016) established the model
between export trade and economic growth, using the statistical data of major cities in Central China from 2000 to
2013, he empirically analyzed the impact of export trade on the regional economy. The results showed that export
trade is one of the main driving forces for the overall economic development in the central region.
Abstract: Japan moved towards the road of economic export-oriented development, foreign trade and foreign
investment increased rapidly after World War II, and the economy recovered rapidly and came to the forefront of
the world. Then, what role did foreign capital and foreign trade play in the process of economic growth? Based on
the import, export FDI and GDP data of Japan from 1996 to 2015, this paper uses eviews 7.2 and co-integration
test to confirm the long-term co-integration relationship between GDP and import, export, FDI. The results show
that the long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and export is positive correlation, and GDP and import,
FDI are negatively related long-term equilibrium relations. The influence of Japan's export-oriented economy on
economic growth is mainly through the form of export trade.
Keywords: Extroversion economy; Economic growth; Unit root test; Co-integration test.
2. International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, 2017, 3(8): 114-118
115
2. Economic Development in Japan
2.1. The Process of Economic Extroversion in Japan
Japan is a country with a small territory and a shortage of natural resources. After the end of the Second World
War, Japan, which was defeated and surrendered, was not only on the edge of the domestic economy, but also under
the management of the American occupying forces, losing the autonomy of tariffs and almost completely severing
its foreign economic relations. As a result of historical and geographical reasons, Japan's economic operation can
only follow the road of a unification of economic development and economic extroversion. In order to achieve
economic development, Japan resolutely chose the strategy of economic export-oriented development. The choice of
the strategy is the key to the rapid development of modern Japan's economy, which has directly led to Japan's
economic development walking in the forefront of the world.
Japan's economic export-oriented development strategy is based on heavy chemical industry, while the heavy
chemical industry is based on the new industrial sectors with modern technology system. At the end of the Second
World War, Japan was a backward capitalist country, and the heavy chemical industry must be developed. However,
the infant industry, which had no international competitiveness, should be put under the active interference of the
state. Therefore, Japan's economic export-oriented development strategy is composed of three different levels ,that is
protection, support and opening up.
At the beginning of 1860s, the Japanese government began to implement the economic liberalization system,
selectively carrying out trade liberalization and implementing capital freedom by stages. In June 1960, the Japanese
government announced the outline of the liberalization of trade and foreign exchange.Thanks to the government's
vigorous implementation, trade liberalization progressed rapidly, and free import goods increased from 40% in 1960
to 62% in 1961, and 83% in 1962 , and then up to 89% at the end of April in 1963 . In July 1967 the Japanese
government implemented the first capital liberalization, then, after second time of liberalization of capital in 1969,
third time of the liberalization of capital in 1970 and fourth time in 1971, the liberalization industry, with a foreign
capital ratio of 100%, has accumulated to 443, and the cumulative liberalization industry with the foreign capital
ratio of 50% or less has reached 1085. By the fifth capital liberalization in 1973, 100% of the capital liberalization
was realized in principle.
2.2. Current Situation of Economic Development in Japan
The world economy has developed at a high speed since 1870s. As shown in Appendix 1, 1971 to 2015, the
world GDP (as without special description, mentioned in the text of GDP are nominal GDP) grew rapidly, from
36,911 US dollars to 74,1769 us dollars. Over the past 45 years, world GDP has grown at an average annual rate of
more than 7%, while its growth rate has remained positive, but its growth rate has decreased.
While the world economy is developing, the Japanese economy is developing at full speed. All along, Japan's
economy plays an important role in the world economic system. As shown in the Appendix 1, 1971 to 1994, the ratio
of Japan’s GDP in world GDP gradually increased, the proportion reached 17.57% in 1994. With the continuous
development of emerging economies, the Japanese economy in the world economic system gradually decline, but in
2015, the ratio of Japan’s GDP in world GDP is still as high as 5.91%, its contribution to the world economy is self-
evident.
As shown in Appendix 2, 1971 to 1980, Japan's GDP grew at a high rate of over 10%, compared with 8.39% in
1979 alone. From 1981 to 1991, Japan's economic growth rate was mostly no less than 5%, and then the growth rate
hovered around 0%, The value of GDP reached a peak of 5,341,425 yen in 1997. Since 2011, the growth rate has
been continuously raised, and GDP has increased from 4,914,085 yen to 5,304,657 yen. Thus, the explosive power
and potential of Japan's economic growth can be seen.
With the growth of GDP, the proportion of imports, exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) in GDP has
also been changing. From 1971 to 2015, the ratio of Japan’s imports and exports in GDP basic synchronous changed,
fluctuation in 10%, showing the trend of first decrease and then increase. the ratio of Japan’s foreign direct
investment (FDI) in GDP has increased year by year, from 0.62% in 1996 to 4.62% in 2015. Since 1996, the ratio of
foreign direct investment in GDP has been significantly lower than that of foreign trade, and the impact of foreign
trade on GDP might be much higher than that of foreign investment.
3. Empirical Test and Analyses of Results
3.1. Export-oriented Economic Indicators and Variable Selection
In the broad sense of the export-oriented economic development strategy, to measure the degree of export-
oriented economic development, we can choose three "outside", namely, foreign trade, foreign investment and
foreign economic cooperation. Keynes believes that consumption, investment and net exports are "three carriages" of
driving the economy, so this paper chose two "outside", that is, foreign capital and foreign trade, as a measure of
indicators. Considering the availability of data, as well as Japan's economic situation, the final selections are export,
import and FDI as the main influencing factors of export-oriented economic growth.
3.2. Sample Description and Data Sources
The paper selects Japan’s gross domestic product(GDP), export value(EX), import value(IM) and foreign direct
investment(FDI) from 1996 to 2015 as the research sample data, using the Japanese consumer price index to
3. International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, 2017, 3(8): 114-118
116
eliminate the effects of inflation. The data are taken from wind database. To eliminate heteroscedasticity, taking the
natural logarithms of GDP, EX, IM, and FDI to study, and thinking of the LN GDP, LN EX, LN IM, and LN FDI as
primitive sequences.
3.3. Stationarity Test and Analyses of Results
The data used in this paper are time series, so the stationarity test is necessary. The stationarity of time series
means that the statistical laws of time series do not change with time. In order to guarantee the validity of the
analysis, unbiasedness and consistency, and avoid the phenomenon of pseudo regression, the stationarity of the time
series must be tested.
In this paper, the ADF method is used to perform the unit root test for the difference sequence of the original
sequence and the original sequence. Before the unit root test, we determine whether it contains the sequence of
constants and the trend through the line and symbol chart ,and then the regression model is selected according to the
result of the line and symbol chart. The result of unit root test of the original sequence and the first difference
sequence is shown in table 3-1.
The results show that the ADF values of the original sequences are larger than the critical values of 5%, and the
adjoint probabilities are greater than 0.05, the hypothesis that there is a unit root cannot be rejected. So the original
sequences of LN GDP, LN EX, LN IM, and LN FDI all have unit root and are non stationary sequences. The ADF
values of the first order difference sequences of the original sequence are less than the critical value of 5%, and the
adjoint probabilities are less than 0.05. So the first order difference sequences of original sequence do not have unit
root, and show better stability. Therefore, all three variables are first-order single integer sequences, which
consistents with the premise of co-integration between variables, and meet the conditions of further co-integration
analysis.
Table-3-1. Results of Unit Root Test
Test
variable
Augmented Dickey-Fuller
test statistic
Test type
(c,t,k)
5%
critical value
Prob.* Conclusion
LN GDP -2.146442 (1,0,0) -3.02997 0.2303 Non-stationary
LN EX -1.726374 (1,0,0) -3.02997 0.4029 Non-stationary
LN IM -1.012634 (1,0,0) -3.02997 0.7266 Noe-stationary
LN FDI -0.94053 (1,0,8) -3.175352 0.7338 Non-stationary
D(LN GDP) -4.316968 (0,0,0) -1.961409 0.0002 stationary
D(LN EX) -5.007345 (0,0,0) -1.961409 0.0000 stationary
D(LN IM) -4.126447 (0,0,0) -1.961409 0.0003 stationary
D(LN FDI) -3.855935 (1,0,0) -3.040391 0.0100 stationary
Note: the c, t and k in brackets in the table denote constant, trend, and lag orders, respectively. c or t equal to 1 means existence. When
the ADF test value is greater than the 5% critical value, the sequence is not stationary.
3.4. Co-integration Test and Analyses of Results
In the analysis of co-integration of many variables, Johansen test is the most commonly used method. Johansen
co-integration test determines the co-integration relationship by calculating the trace statistics and the maximum
eigenvalue statistic. When the trace statistics and the maximum eigenvalue statistics are inconsistent, we usually
choose the test results of trace statistics for analysis, because the trace statistics are more effective in general.
When the Johansen test is used to determine the co integration relationship of vectors, first of all, the
deterministic trend hypothesis and the optimal lag period need to be chosen. The line and symbol chart shows that
variables contain trend items, so choose the third item in the deterministic trend hypothesis “Intercept(no trend)in
CE and test VAR”. The best lag stage of the vector is defined as the 3 stage.
In this paper, the trace statistic and the maximum eigenvalue statistic are consistent. We choose the test result of
trace statistics to analyze. If the trace statistic value is greater than the critical value, and the adjoint probability is
less than 0.05, the original hypothesis can be rejected. While the trace statistic value is less than the critical value,
and the adjoint probability is greater than 0.05, then the original hypothesis is not rejected.
As shown in table 3-2, we rejected the first three hypotheses and accepted the fourth hypothesis, which holds
that there are at most three co-integration relations. This is the end of the test. Therefore, through the trace statistics,
we can judge there are three co-integration relationship between LN GDP, LN EX, LN IM and LN FDI.
Table-3-2. Results of Co-integration test
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)
Eigen Value Trace Statistic 5% Critical Value Prob.**
none 0.986364 119.2949 47.85613 0.0000
At most 1 0.778576 46.27881 29.79707 0.0003
At most 2 0.630669 20.64834 15.49471 0.0076
At most 3 0.196313 3.71527 3.841466 0.0539
4. International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, 2017, 3(8): 114-118
117
In addition, formula (3-1) is the co-integration formula with the largest log likelihood, and the relation is also
the co-integration relation of regression in VEC. As can be seen from the formula, GDP and EX had a positive
relationship with long-term equilibrium, while GDP was negatively related to IM and FDI. For every 1% increase in
EX, GDP increased by 0.314%. While IM increased by 1% and GDP decreased by 0.141%. And an increase of 1%
in FDI had less impact on GDP and had only reduced GDP by 0.037%.
LN GDP = 0.313878 * LN EX - 0.141328 * LN IM - 0.037463 * LN FDI formula(3-1)
4. Discussion and Implications of Results
From results estimated above, based on the data of Japan from 1996 to 2015, this paper uses eviews 7.2 and co-
integration test to confirm the long-term co-integration relationship between GDP and import, export, FDI. The
results show that the long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and export is positive correlation, and GDP
and import , FDI are negatively related long-term equilibrium relations .Through the above analysis and
demonstration, we get the following three conclusions:
First, open export-oriented strategy in Japan since 1860s achieved great success, not only the successful
completion of the liberalization of foreign trade and foreign investment, and domestic economic growth achieved
rapid development. Japan successfully achieved the post-war economic recovery and economic modernization goals.
Second, the influence of Japan's export-oriented economy on Japan's economic growth was mainly through the
form of export trade. An increase in total exports would boost the growth of GDP, an increase of 1% in exports
brought an increase of 0.314% in total GDP. The import trade undoubtedly inhibited economic growth, for every 1%
increase in IM, GDP decreased by 0.141%.
Finally, Japan's foreign direct investment was not a major factor in economic growth, but slightly inhibited
economic growth. When Japan's FDI increased by 1%, resulting in a 0.037% reduction in GDP, which might be due
to the crowding out effect of FDI on domestic enterprises, and the policy advantage of FDI led to a greater crowding
out effect on domestic direct investment.
5. Summary and Recommendations
Open export-oriented strategy in Japan achieved great success, and the influence of Japan's export-oriented
economy on its economic growth was mainly through the form of export trade, Japan's foreign direct investment
slightly inhibited economic growth. Based on the above research results, we puts forward the following suggestions:
First, continue to complete the process of economic export-oriented, strengthen the government's guiding role in
export-oriented economy. Government departments should increase efforts to support enterprises, strengthen guide
work of export-oriented economic development, and provide enterprises with an excellent environment for
development.
Second, vigorously cultivate new export growth point. Relevant departments should actively support and
promote enterprises to consolidate the traditional market and open up new markets. At the same time, regard
strengthening the main body of foreign trade as an important means to change the mode of regional economic
growth, implement a more proactive opening strategy, encourage enterprises to enter the emerging market, strive to
foster new growth points, and support for steady growth of foreign trade exports.
Last, change the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth, and pay attention to the introduction of
FDI. Strictly formulate preferential policies for foreign investment to prevent the foreign capital from running on
local capital. The effect of capital appreciation on foreign investment should be strictly checked, so as to prevent the
low effect foreign capital from expelling the high effect domestic capital.
References
Chen, S. (2016). Model construction and empirical analysis of the relationship between export trade and economic
growth. Shopping mall modernization, 8: 6-7.
Gao, L. (2009). Mathematical analysis of export-oriented economic development in Shandong Province -- Based on
co-integration test between import and export trade and economic growth in Shandong Province. Journal of
Shandong University of Technology (Social Science Edition), 1: 15-19.
Huo, X. (2015). Long and short term dynamic relationship between China's foreign trade and economic growth
based on co integration test and VAR model. Commercial economic research, 1: 30-32.
Ma Zhangliang (2012). Analysis of the impact of China 's import and export trade on the transformation of economic
growth mode. International Trade Issue, (4).
Wang, K. (2012). Quantitative analysis of export-oriented economy impact on economic growth in Zhengzhou city.
Productivity research, 7: 102-04.
5. International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, 2017, 3(8): 114-118
118
Appendix 1
The Total GDP in the World and the Ratio of Japan’s GDP in World GDP
Appendix 2
Japan’s GDP and GDP Growth Rate from 1971 to 2015