1) The document examines the impact of inflation on economic growth in Tanzania from 1990-2011. It analyzes the relationship between inflation and GDP growth through correlation coefficients and cointegration techniques.
2) The results suggest that inflation has a negative impact on economic growth in Tanzania. There is no long-run cointegrating relationship between inflation and GDP growth over the period studied.
3) The study aims to measure the responsiveness of changes in GDP to changes in the general price level, in order to provide useful information to policymakers on managing inflation to stimulate economic growth.
This document analyzes the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Qatar from 1980 to 2016. It finds that inflation and economic growth are cointegrated, indicating a long-run relationship. A Granger causality test shows causality runs from inflation to economic growth. The study uses time series analysis methods including unit root tests, Johansen cointegration, and Granger causality tests. Unit root tests show inflation and economic growth are non-stationary in levels but stationary in first differences. Johansen cointegration finds the variables are cointegrated, implying a long-run equilibrium relationship. The Granger causality test then finds causality runs from inflation to economic growth in the long-run.
Single digit inflation targeting does it promote economic growthAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a journal article that investigates the relationship between single-digit inflation and economic growth in South Africa using annual time series data from 1965-2010. The results of the analysis suggest that targeting single-digit inflation undermines economic growth in South Africa in the long run. While some studies have found that inflation below 11% promotes growth in developing countries, the mixed findings in the literature highlight the need to specifically examine the impact of single-digit inflation. The analysis in this document finds that periods of single-digit inflation are negatively correlated with economic growth in South Africa, questioning the benefits of targeting low single-digit inflation rates in developing countries.
1) The document analyzes macroeconomic variables like interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, GDP, and inflation in China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia from 2000 to 2017 to determine leading indicators of economic stability.
2) The ARDL panel analysis shows that leading indicators of controlling economic stability differ across countries. For India it is interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, and GDP. For Vietnam it is interest rates, money supply, and GDP. For Indonesia it is interest rates and money supply, and for China it is money supply.
3) The analysis finds that money supply has a significant effect on inflation in the panel as a whole, but results vary by country
THE CHALLENGE OF INFLATION AND ITS CONSUMPTION RELATIONpaperpublications3
Abstract: Indian economy is a developing economy and it faces many challenges from all directions. It also faces some extra challenges not only economic but also from other sectors of society. In this paper the challenge of inflation and its consumption relation is explained. Many economic experts and political world leaders accused Indian consumers for the world inflation rise. Indian particularly middle and lower income families feet the heat of the inflation more intensively than higher income group peoples. Inflation is basically problem of demand and supply equation, but many other factors also involved in it. Some dilemma of the inflation is presented in this paper. Not only people of India but also the central and states governments are also afraid of inflation. Many economists we well as politicians assumed that inflation is affecting the consumption or the consumer is the cause of inflation.
Monetary Policy Shocks and Agricultural Output Growth in Nigeriaiosrjce
This document summarizes a research paper that investigated the transmission of monetary policy shocks to agricultural output growth in Nigeria from 1970 to 2012. The study used a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyze the data. The results showed that:
1) Both monetary policy shocks transmitted through interest rates and increases in production costs from inflation have significant impacts on agricultural output growth in Nigeria.
2) Monetary policy shocks transmitted through interest rate channels were found to be more effective at influencing agricultural output than other transmission mechanisms.
3) The study recommends Nigerian monetary policy focus more on using differential interest rates and other tools to revitalize the agricultural sector.
This document discusses inflation and its impact on the Indian stock market. It begins with an abstract that outlines how the relationship between stock prices and inflation has been extensively researched. The document then discusses the objectives of studying the impact of inflation on various Indian stock indexes like BSE SENSEX, NSE NIFTY, NIFTY Bank, and BSE FMCG based on yearly data. It acknowledges those who helped with the research. The contents section provides an outline covering topics like the different types of inflation, its causes and effects, a comparison of inflation and GDP, the stock market, and analyses of various stock indexes in relation to inflation.
The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of inflation in West Africa, mainly in the WAEMU zone, in order to contribute to improving the conduct of monetary policy. The equation of the exchange of the Quantitative Theory of the Currency and the generalized method of moments (MMG) in dynamic panel is used. Annual data concerning six countries in West Africa and range from 1991 to 2015. The results of the estimation show that in addition to the economic growth rate and the money supply, the devaluation has a significant effect on inflation. As we can see, inflation is not systematically a monetary phenomenon in West Africa. The authorities must therefore seek to determine the optimal threshold for the rate of increase of the money supply.
This document reviews the literature on the relationship between monetary policy and economic growth. It begins with an overview of the evolution of theories from classical quantity theory to modern New Keynesian and New Consensus models. While theories differ in their assumptions around price flexibility and market clearing, most support some short-run effect of monetary policy on output. Empirically, studies find mixed results, with some supporting and others finding no relationship, depending on factors like country development and institutional quality. Overall, the literature suggests monetary policy can impact growth in developed markets with independent central banks, while the relationship is weaker in developing economies.
This document analyzes the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Qatar from 1980 to 2016. It finds that inflation and economic growth are cointegrated, indicating a long-run relationship. A Granger causality test shows causality runs from inflation to economic growth. The study uses time series analysis methods including unit root tests, Johansen cointegration, and Granger causality tests. Unit root tests show inflation and economic growth are non-stationary in levels but stationary in first differences. Johansen cointegration finds the variables are cointegrated, implying a long-run equilibrium relationship. The Granger causality test then finds causality runs from inflation to economic growth in the long-run.
Single digit inflation targeting does it promote economic growthAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a journal article that investigates the relationship between single-digit inflation and economic growth in South Africa using annual time series data from 1965-2010. The results of the analysis suggest that targeting single-digit inflation undermines economic growth in South Africa in the long run. While some studies have found that inflation below 11% promotes growth in developing countries, the mixed findings in the literature highlight the need to specifically examine the impact of single-digit inflation. The analysis in this document finds that periods of single-digit inflation are negatively correlated with economic growth in South Africa, questioning the benefits of targeting low single-digit inflation rates in developing countries.
1) The document analyzes macroeconomic variables like interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, GDP, and inflation in China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia from 2000 to 2017 to determine leading indicators of economic stability.
2) The ARDL panel analysis shows that leading indicators of controlling economic stability differ across countries. For India it is interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, and GDP. For Vietnam it is interest rates, money supply, and GDP. For Indonesia it is interest rates and money supply, and for China it is money supply.
3) The analysis finds that money supply has a significant effect on inflation in the panel as a whole, but results vary by country
THE CHALLENGE OF INFLATION AND ITS CONSUMPTION RELATIONpaperpublications3
Abstract: Indian economy is a developing economy and it faces many challenges from all directions. It also faces some extra challenges not only economic but also from other sectors of society. In this paper the challenge of inflation and its consumption relation is explained. Many economic experts and political world leaders accused Indian consumers for the world inflation rise. Indian particularly middle and lower income families feet the heat of the inflation more intensively than higher income group peoples. Inflation is basically problem of demand and supply equation, but many other factors also involved in it. Some dilemma of the inflation is presented in this paper. Not only people of India but also the central and states governments are also afraid of inflation. Many economists we well as politicians assumed that inflation is affecting the consumption or the consumer is the cause of inflation.
Monetary Policy Shocks and Agricultural Output Growth in Nigeriaiosrjce
This document summarizes a research paper that investigated the transmission of monetary policy shocks to agricultural output growth in Nigeria from 1970 to 2012. The study used a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyze the data. The results showed that:
1) Both monetary policy shocks transmitted through interest rates and increases in production costs from inflation have significant impacts on agricultural output growth in Nigeria.
2) Monetary policy shocks transmitted through interest rate channels were found to be more effective at influencing agricultural output than other transmission mechanisms.
3) The study recommends Nigerian monetary policy focus more on using differential interest rates and other tools to revitalize the agricultural sector.
This document discusses inflation and its impact on the Indian stock market. It begins with an abstract that outlines how the relationship between stock prices and inflation has been extensively researched. The document then discusses the objectives of studying the impact of inflation on various Indian stock indexes like BSE SENSEX, NSE NIFTY, NIFTY Bank, and BSE FMCG based on yearly data. It acknowledges those who helped with the research. The contents section provides an outline covering topics like the different types of inflation, its causes and effects, a comparison of inflation and GDP, the stock market, and analyses of various stock indexes in relation to inflation.
The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of inflation in West Africa, mainly in the WAEMU zone, in order to contribute to improving the conduct of monetary policy. The equation of the exchange of the Quantitative Theory of the Currency and the generalized method of moments (MMG) in dynamic panel is used. Annual data concerning six countries in West Africa and range from 1991 to 2015. The results of the estimation show that in addition to the economic growth rate and the money supply, the devaluation has a significant effect on inflation. As we can see, inflation is not systematically a monetary phenomenon in West Africa. The authorities must therefore seek to determine the optimal threshold for the rate of increase of the money supply.
This document reviews the literature on the relationship between monetary policy and economic growth. It begins with an overview of the evolution of theories from classical quantity theory to modern New Keynesian and New Consensus models. While theories differ in their assumptions around price flexibility and market clearing, most support some short-run effect of monetary policy on output. Empirically, studies find mixed results, with some supporting and others finding no relationship, depending on factors like country development and institutional quality. Overall, the literature suggests monetary policy can impact growth in developed markets with independent central banks, while the relationship is weaker in developing economies.
EFFECTIVE MONETARY POLICY AS A RECIPE FOR MACROECONOMIC STABILITY IN NIGERIApaperpublications3
Abstract: The basic objective of this paper was to investigate effective monetary policy as a recipe for macroeconomic stability in Nigeria, using annual time series data from 1981 to 2014. The paper employs OLS methodology with all the BLUE assumption. The results show that considering the magnitude, 1% increase in RGDP (proxy for economic growth) is brought about by 0.86% increase in narrow money supply (M1), 0.63% increase in broad money supply (M2), 258% decrease in inflation rate (INFLARATE), 1276.3% increase in lending rate (LEDRATE), and 143.9% increase in gross fixed capital formation. This implies that an increase in lending rate and other related variables will lead to a significant increase in real GDP, proxy for economic growth in Nigeria. The estimated value of R2 (goodness of fit) of 0.67 or 67% shows that 67% systematic variation in Real GDP is caused by variation in narrow money supply, broad money supply, inflation rate, lending rate, and gross fixed capital formation. This indicates that indeed, monetary policy has an effect on macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. The study seems to suggest that concerted efforts should be made by the government to focus on increment in narrow and broad money supplies which will aid in the financing of the country’s monetary growth, balancing the price increase, stimulating increased spending, and further enhancing the country’s macroeconomic variables.
Impact of political stability on the reserves of pakistanKamran Arshad
This document analyzes the impact of political stability on Pakistan's reserves from 1960-2010. It collects data on reserves from the World Bank and analyzes how political and historical events affected reserves. The research finds a strong correlation between political instability and lower reserves through statistical analysis of reserves data and major events in Pakistan's history. Control charts are used to identify relationships between reserves and environmental factors.
This document reviews the literature on the impact of monetary policy on growth and employment in developing countries. It finds that monetary policy has limited impact on growth as money plays a small role in developing economies and much of inflation is imported. While monetary policy aims to control inflation, there is little evidence it directly impacts investment, technological change, or employment. The document argues growth does not guarantee development and examines whether growth improves living standards, creates formal jobs, or moves workers from low- to high-productivity sectors.
This study examines the relationship between inflation, monetary policy, and economic growth in Pakistan from 1989-2020. It uses inflation as the dependent variable and GDP, interest rate, money supply, and exchange rate as independent variables. Auto Regressive Distributive Lag techniques are employed. The findings show an inverse relationship between inflation and GDP, meaning inflation decreases as GDP increases. There is also a negative relationship between inflation and interest rate, but positive relationships between inflation and both money supply and exchange rate. Overall, the study aims to analyze how monetary policy tools like interest rates and money supply impact inflation and economic growth in Pakistan.
1) The document analyzes Japan's economic growth under an export-oriented economy using data from 1996-2015.
2) It finds a long-term cointegrating relationship between GDP and exports, imports, FDI through unit root and cointegration tests. GDP has a positive long-term relationship with exports and negative relationships with imports and FDI.
3) The results indicate exports have played a significant role in Japan's economic growth, more so than imports or FDI, confirming the success of Japan's export-oriented development strategy since the 1860s.
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Humanities and Social Science. IJHSSI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Humanities and Social Science, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
This document analyzes the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on economic growth in Vietnam from 2004 to 2013 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results show there is cointegration between macroeconomic policies and economic growth. Variance decomposition and impulse response functions from the VECM model indicate fiscal and monetary policies have a limited impact on economic growth, with monetary policy having a slightly greater effect than fiscal policy. The document recommends improving the effectiveness of implementing these policies in Vietnam.
DT2 - Indian Inflation - Populism, Politics and Procurement PricesNikhil Mohan
- Aggregate demand in India is weak and weakening, contrary to claims by the RBI.
- India's excess inflation is mostly due to high minimum support prices set by the government for agricultural products.
- Inflation in India has peaked and interest rates set by the RBI have also peaked, so there is no justification for the RBI's recent interest rate hikes.
Statistical Analysis of Interrelationship between Money Supply Exchange Rates...Atif Ahmed
Several researches have been conducted to study the impact of different macro-economic variables and their influence on government expenditure. By using different statistical tools researchers have examined that how money supply and exchange rate influence the government expenditure. Few other studies also conducted work on the quarterly time series data to examine the long run equilibrium association between the macroeconomic variables.
The agricultural sector in Eswatini is viewed as an engine to foster economic growth, reduce poverty and eradicate inequality. The purpose of the study was to investigate the effects of monetary policy on the agriculture Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Eswatini using annual data for the period starting from 1980 to 2016. Using the Vector Error Correction model (VEC), the empirical results indicated that in the long run, agriculture GDP, exchange rate, interest rate, inflation, broad money supply, and agriculture credit have a negative effect on agriculture GDP in Eswatini. In the short run the study indicated that the variation in agriculture GDP is largely significant caused by the lagged agricultural GDP, interest rate, exchange rate as well as inflation. Money supply and agriculture credit contribute 0.46% and 0.55%, respectively to the variation in agricultural GDP. The study recommends that programs aimed at availing affordable credit to farmers should be prioritized to cushion the agriculture sector against adverse monetary policy shocks in the short to medium term, specifically interest rates, to ensure continuous production.
This document summarizes a working paper on monetary policy effectiveness in Pakistan. The paper estimates various VAR models and compares results to DSGE models. Key findings are:
1) VAR models using a conventional identification scheme find insignificant effects of monetary policy shocks on output and inflation in Pakistan.
2) A DSGE model that incorporates financial market frictions still shows significant monetary policy effects, contradicting the VAR results.
3) Simulating data from the DSGE model and estimating a VAR reveals that the recursive identification scheme may misidentify monetary policy shocks and underestimate their true effects on output and inflation.
The impact of inflation, policy rate and government consumption expenditure o...Alexander Decker
This document analyzes the impact of inflation, policy rate, and government consumption expenditure on GDP growth in Ghana from 1980-2010 using time series econometric analysis. The results show:
1) There is a positive long-run relationship between inflation and GDP growth as well as between the policy rate and GDP growth. However, government consumption expenditure has a negative long-run impact on GDP growth.
2) In the short-run, inflation and government consumption expenditure positively impact GDP growth, while the policy rate has an inverse relationship with GDP growth.
3) Of the three variables, only inflation has a statistically significant impact on real GDP growth in Ghana. The study recommends prudent monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabil
11.monetary policy, exchange rate and inflation rate in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes research on the relationship between monetary policy, exchange rates, and inflation rates in Nigeria from 1986 to 2010. It finds that there is a cointegrating relationship between the variables using a vector error correction model. Specifically, it finds unidirectional causation from exchange rates and inflation to interest rates (the monetary policy measure), and bidirectional causation between inflation and exchange rates. No causation was found from interest rates to exchange rates or inflation. This provides evidence that changes in exchange rates and inflation cause changes in monetary policy rather than the other way around. The study recommends appropriate management and control of exchange rates and inflation.
Savings-Growth-Inflation nexus in Asia: Panel Data Approachiosrjce
The present study examines the savings-growth-inflation nexus in Asia through panel data approach
for the period 1981 to 2011. The inter-relationship between saving and economic growth is found to be
significant and unidirectional running from saving to economic growth. Economic growth negatively and
significantly affects inflation but inflation positively and significantly affects saving which supports Deaton’s
hypothesis. The variables such as saving, trade openness and population growth are found to be significant
determinants economic growth. Except GDP, variables such as real interest rate, inflation, dependency ratio
and literacy rate are found to be significant determinants of saving rate. Similarly, variables such as money
supply, growth rate and real interest rate are found to be the major determinants of inflation. No country
specific effects has been found for explaining growth rate of per capita real GDP but in case of saving rate and
inflation rate, many countries exhibit individual effects which are modeled as fixed effects in the panel data
framework. As contrary to the time invariant country fixed effects, there is no consistent country invariant year
fixed effect on real GDP per capita growth rate and saving rate, while there is highly significant negative effect
on inflation. As saving affects GDP per capita growth positively and significantly, policies should be framed in
such a way that encourage savings in Asian economies which in turn may lead sustained higher GDP per capita
growth.
The document provides an analysis of the macroeconomic environment and food processing industry in India as it relates to the company Heritage Foods. It analyzes factors such as GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, industrial production, government spending, and their impact on sectors relevant to Heritage Foods like food processing, automotive, IT, and pharmaceuticals. Brexit is also discussed, noting potential impacts such as currency volatility, trade restrictions, and changes to the mobility of professionals that could affect Indian businesses operating in the UK and European Union. The food processing industry in India is poised for major growth and is valued at $39.71 billion currently.
impact of monetary policy on economic growth: a case study of south Africa
ini hasil diskusi bersama untuk menyelesaikan studi kasus makroekonomi, khususnya kebijakan moneter
This study analyzed the relationship between asset prices and economic growth in India. The researchers used data from India's major stock markets (BSE and NSE) to represent asset prices, and the Index of Industrial Production to represent economic growth. A rolling correlation analysis found the relationship between asset prices and growth varied over time and occasionally showed negative correlation. Regression analysis indicated a generally positive relationship, though shocks can cause variation. Periods of high volatility in the stock markets coincided with higher positive correlation between asset prices and economic growth.
Macroeconomics analyzes factors that influence aggregate economic measures like income, output, employment, inflation, and economic growth. The document outlines key macroeconomic concepts including the study of economic growth, productivity, unemployment, inflation, business cycles, and aggregate demand and supply. It also discusses macroeconomic policies and objectives, comparing classical and Keynesian views on the role of the government in managing the economy.
This document examines the relationship between stock market indices and macroeconomic variables in India during the post-globalization period. It provides background on studies that have explored this relationship in other countries and contexts. The study uses secondary data on macroeconomic indicators and the BSE Sensex index from 1992-2011. Growth trends are analyzed using linear, exponential, and quadratic functions to understand how variables have moved over time. Preliminary results suggest several macro variables like GDP, capital formation, savings, and money supply have grown significantly and accelerated over the period, while others like industrial output and gold prices have had slower or decelerating growth. The analysis aims to better understand the direction and nature of the relationship between the Sensex and macroeconomic factors
Macroeconomic stability in the DRC: highlighting the role of exchange rate an...IJRTEMJOURNAL
This study is part of a macroeconomic approach and seeks to identify the role of the rate of
economic growth and the exchange rate in controlling the macroeconomic framework. The approaches adopted
in this paper are part of Keynesian thinking on macroeconomic stability using the macroeconomic stability
index proposed by Burnside and Dollars (2004) and A. Amine (2005). Our results argue that economic growth
is causing macroeconomic stability and that the exchange rate is negatively and significantly accounting for
macroeconomic stability in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Rethinking The Current Inflation Target Range In South Afric.docxzmark3
Rethinking The Current Inflation Target Range In South
Africa
Lumengo Bonga-Bonga, Ntsakeseni Letitia Lebese
The Journal of Developing Areas, Volume 53, Number 2, Spring 2019, pp.
13-27 (Article)
Published by Tennessee State University College of Business
DOI:
For additional information about this article
Access provided by Ebsco Publishing (11 Sep 2018 13:19 GMT)
https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2019.0018
https://muse.jhu.edu/article/702993
https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2019.0018
https://muse.jhu.edu/article/702993
T h e J o u r n a l o f D e v e l o p i n g A r e a s
Volume 53 No. 2 Spring 2019
RETHINKING THE CURRENT INFLATION
TARGET RANGE IN SOUTH AFRICA
Lumengo Bonga-Bonga
Ntsakeseni Letitia Lebese
University of Johannesburg, South Africa
ABSTRACT
Critics argue that inflation targeting is not an appropriate monetary policy framework for
developing countries. They maintain that developing countries are more susceptible to the negative
effects of external shocks due to the uncertainty perceived by investors with respect to their
political and economic stability. It is in this line that this paper assesses whether the 3%-6%
inflation target is the optimal inflation target band in South Africa. To determine the optimal level
of inflation target in South Africa, this paper follows the methodology developed by Ball and
Mankiw (2002), which rests on the premise that there is a short run trade-off between inflation and
unemployment. Ball and Mankiw (2002) show that there exists a level of unemployment that is
consistent with stable inflation. The unemployment level that corresponds with a stable inflation is
known as the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). Thus, this paper uses an
expectations-augmented Phillips curve to estimate a time-varying NAIRU for South Africa from
1980 to 2015. We use the headline inflation rate and the official unemployment rate based on the
narrow definition to evaluate the appropriateness of the current inflation target range. Quarterly
data from 1980 to 2015 sourced from Quantec is used to this end. The results of the empirical
analysis indicate that, if South Africa were to put in place an inflation target range based on the
NAIRU, it would have to target an inflation rate that ranges from 1.4 to 11.5 percent. This range is
different to the official inflation target of 3% to 6% adopted by the South African Reserve Bank
(SARB). Furthermore, this paper finds that the Phillips curve is not vertical in South Africa, as
actual inflation does not depend solely on inflation expectations. The policy implication of the
findings of this paper is that the South African Reserve Bank should think about revising its current
inflation target, as it is too narrow for an emerging economy. The current low range of inflation
target could have a negative effect on output and unemployment.
EFFECTIVE MONETARY POLICY AS A RECIPE FOR MACROECONOMIC STABILITY IN NIGERIApaperpublications3
Abstract: The basic objective of this paper was to investigate effective monetary policy as a recipe for macroeconomic stability in Nigeria, using annual time series data from 1981 to 2014. The paper employs OLS methodology with all the BLUE assumption. The results show that considering the magnitude, 1% increase in RGDP (proxy for economic growth) is brought about by 0.86% increase in narrow money supply (M1), 0.63% increase in broad money supply (M2), 258% decrease in inflation rate (INFLARATE), 1276.3% increase in lending rate (LEDRATE), and 143.9% increase in gross fixed capital formation. This implies that an increase in lending rate and other related variables will lead to a significant increase in real GDP, proxy for economic growth in Nigeria. The estimated value of R2 (goodness of fit) of 0.67 or 67% shows that 67% systematic variation in Real GDP is caused by variation in narrow money supply, broad money supply, inflation rate, lending rate, and gross fixed capital formation. This indicates that indeed, monetary policy has an effect on macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. The study seems to suggest that concerted efforts should be made by the government to focus on increment in narrow and broad money supplies which will aid in the financing of the country’s monetary growth, balancing the price increase, stimulating increased spending, and further enhancing the country’s macroeconomic variables.
Impact of political stability on the reserves of pakistanKamran Arshad
This document analyzes the impact of political stability on Pakistan's reserves from 1960-2010. It collects data on reserves from the World Bank and analyzes how political and historical events affected reserves. The research finds a strong correlation between political instability and lower reserves through statistical analysis of reserves data and major events in Pakistan's history. Control charts are used to identify relationships between reserves and environmental factors.
This document reviews the literature on the impact of monetary policy on growth and employment in developing countries. It finds that monetary policy has limited impact on growth as money plays a small role in developing economies and much of inflation is imported. While monetary policy aims to control inflation, there is little evidence it directly impacts investment, technological change, or employment. The document argues growth does not guarantee development and examines whether growth improves living standards, creates formal jobs, or moves workers from low- to high-productivity sectors.
This study examines the relationship between inflation, monetary policy, and economic growth in Pakistan from 1989-2020. It uses inflation as the dependent variable and GDP, interest rate, money supply, and exchange rate as independent variables. Auto Regressive Distributive Lag techniques are employed. The findings show an inverse relationship between inflation and GDP, meaning inflation decreases as GDP increases. There is also a negative relationship between inflation and interest rate, but positive relationships between inflation and both money supply and exchange rate. Overall, the study aims to analyze how monetary policy tools like interest rates and money supply impact inflation and economic growth in Pakistan.
1) The document analyzes Japan's economic growth under an export-oriented economy using data from 1996-2015.
2) It finds a long-term cointegrating relationship between GDP and exports, imports, FDI through unit root and cointegration tests. GDP has a positive long-term relationship with exports and negative relationships with imports and FDI.
3) The results indicate exports have played a significant role in Japan's economic growth, more so than imports or FDI, confirming the success of Japan's export-oriented development strategy since the 1860s.
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Humanities and Social Science. IJHSSI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Humanities and Social Science, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
This document analyzes the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on economic growth in Vietnam from 2004 to 2013 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results show there is cointegration between macroeconomic policies and economic growth. Variance decomposition and impulse response functions from the VECM model indicate fiscal and monetary policies have a limited impact on economic growth, with monetary policy having a slightly greater effect than fiscal policy. The document recommends improving the effectiveness of implementing these policies in Vietnam.
DT2 - Indian Inflation - Populism, Politics and Procurement PricesNikhil Mohan
- Aggregate demand in India is weak and weakening, contrary to claims by the RBI.
- India's excess inflation is mostly due to high minimum support prices set by the government for agricultural products.
- Inflation in India has peaked and interest rates set by the RBI have also peaked, so there is no justification for the RBI's recent interest rate hikes.
Statistical Analysis of Interrelationship between Money Supply Exchange Rates...Atif Ahmed
Several researches have been conducted to study the impact of different macro-economic variables and their influence on government expenditure. By using different statistical tools researchers have examined that how money supply and exchange rate influence the government expenditure. Few other studies also conducted work on the quarterly time series data to examine the long run equilibrium association between the macroeconomic variables.
The agricultural sector in Eswatini is viewed as an engine to foster economic growth, reduce poverty and eradicate inequality. The purpose of the study was to investigate the effects of monetary policy on the agriculture Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Eswatini using annual data for the period starting from 1980 to 2016. Using the Vector Error Correction model (VEC), the empirical results indicated that in the long run, agriculture GDP, exchange rate, interest rate, inflation, broad money supply, and agriculture credit have a negative effect on agriculture GDP in Eswatini. In the short run the study indicated that the variation in agriculture GDP is largely significant caused by the lagged agricultural GDP, interest rate, exchange rate as well as inflation. Money supply and agriculture credit contribute 0.46% and 0.55%, respectively to the variation in agricultural GDP. The study recommends that programs aimed at availing affordable credit to farmers should be prioritized to cushion the agriculture sector against adverse monetary policy shocks in the short to medium term, specifically interest rates, to ensure continuous production.
This document summarizes a working paper on monetary policy effectiveness in Pakistan. The paper estimates various VAR models and compares results to DSGE models. Key findings are:
1) VAR models using a conventional identification scheme find insignificant effects of monetary policy shocks on output and inflation in Pakistan.
2) A DSGE model that incorporates financial market frictions still shows significant monetary policy effects, contradicting the VAR results.
3) Simulating data from the DSGE model and estimating a VAR reveals that the recursive identification scheme may misidentify monetary policy shocks and underestimate their true effects on output and inflation.
The impact of inflation, policy rate and government consumption expenditure o...Alexander Decker
This document analyzes the impact of inflation, policy rate, and government consumption expenditure on GDP growth in Ghana from 1980-2010 using time series econometric analysis. The results show:
1) There is a positive long-run relationship between inflation and GDP growth as well as between the policy rate and GDP growth. However, government consumption expenditure has a negative long-run impact on GDP growth.
2) In the short-run, inflation and government consumption expenditure positively impact GDP growth, while the policy rate has an inverse relationship with GDP growth.
3) Of the three variables, only inflation has a statistically significant impact on real GDP growth in Ghana. The study recommends prudent monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabil
11.monetary policy, exchange rate and inflation rate in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes research on the relationship between monetary policy, exchange rates, and inflation rates in Nigeria from 1986 to 2010. It finds that there is a cointegrating relationship between the variables using a vector error correction model. Specifically, it finds unidirectional causation from exchange rates and inflation to interest rates (the monetary policy measure), and bidirectional causation between inflation and exchange rates. No causation was found from interest rates to exchange rates or inflation. This provides evidence that changes in exchange rates and inflation cause changes in monetary policy rather than the other way around. The study recommends appropriate management and control of exchange rates and inflation.
Savings-Growth-Inflation nexus in Asia: Panel Data Approachiosrjce
The present study examines the savings-growth-inflation nexus in Asia through panel data approach
for the period 1981 to 2011. The inter-relationship between saving and economic growth is found to be
significant and unidirectional running from saving to economic growth. Economic growth negatively and
significantly affects inflation but inflation positively and significantly affects saving which supports Deaton’s
hypothesis. The variables such as saving, trade openness and population growth are found to be significant
determinants economic growth. Except GDP, variables such as real interest rate, inflation, dependency ratio
and literacy rate are found to be significant determinants of saving rate. Similarly, variables such as money
supply, growth rate and real interest rate are found to be the major determinants of inflation. No country
specific effects has been found for explaining growth rate of per capita real GDP but in case of saving rate and
inflation rate, many countries exhibit individual effects which are modeled as fixed effects in the panel data
framework. As contrary to the time invariant country fixed effects, there is no consistent country invariant year
fixed effect on real GDP per capita growth rate and saving rate, while there is highly significant negative effect
on inflation. As saving affects GDP per capita growth positively and significantly, policies should be framed in
such a way that encourage savings in Asian economies which in turn may lead sustained higher GDP per capita
growth.
The document provides an analysis of the macroeconomic environment and food processing industry in India as it relates to the company Heritage Foods. It analyzes factors such as GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, industrial production, government spending, and their impact on sectors relevant to Heritage Foods like food processing, automotive, IT, and pharmaceuticals. Brexit is also discussed, noting potential impacts such as currency volatility, trade restrictions, and changes to the mobility of professionals that could affect Indian businesses operating in the UK and European Union. The food processing industry in India is poised for major growth and is valued at $39.71 billion currently.
impact of monetary policy on economic growth: a case study of south Africa
ini hasil diskusi bersama untuk menyelesaikan studi kasus makroekonomi, khususnya kebijakan moneter
This study analyzed the relationship between asset prices and economic growth in India. The researchers used data from India's major stock markets (BSE and NSE) to represent asset prices, and the Index of Industrial Production to represent economic growth. A rolling correlation analysis found the relationship between asset prices and growth varied over time and occasionally showed negative correlation. Regression analysis indicated a generally positive relationship, though shocks can cause variation. Periods of high volatility in the stock markets coincided with higher positive correlation between asset prices and economic growth.
Macroeconomics analyzes factors that influence aggregate economic measures like income, output, employment, inflation, and economic growth. The document outlines key macroeconomic concepts including the study of economic growth, productivity, unemployment, inflation, business cycles, and aggregate demand and supply. It also discusses macroeconomic policies and objectives, comparing classical and Keynesian views on the role of the government in managing the economy.
This document examines the relationship between stock market indices and macroeconomic variables in India during the post-globalization period. It provides background on studies that have explored this relationship in other countries and contexts. The study uses secondary data on macroeconomic indicators and the BSE Sensex index from 1992-2011. Growth trends are analyzed using linear, exponential, and quadratic functions to understand how variables have moved over time. Preliminary results suggest several macro variables like GDP, capital formation, savings, and money supply have grown significantly and accelerated over the period, while others like industrial output and gold prices have had slower or decelerating growth. The analysis aims to better understand the direction and nature of the relationship between the Sensex and macroeconomic factors
Macroeconomic stability in the DRC: highlighting the role of exchange rate an...IJRTEMJOURNAL
This study is part of a macroeconomic approach and seeks to identify the role of the rate of
economic growth and the exchange rate in controlling the macroeconomic framework. The approaches adopted
in this paper are part of Keynesian thinking on macroeconomic stability using the macroeconomic stability
index proposed by Burnside and Dollars (2004) and A. Amine (2005). Our results argue that economic growth
is causing macroeconomic stability and that the exchange rate is negatively and significantly accounting for
macroeconomic stability in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Rethinking The Current Inflation Target Range In South Afric.docxzmark3
Rethinking The Current Inflation Target Range In South
Africa
Lumengo Bonga-Bonga, Ntsakeseni Letitia Lebese
The Journal of Developing Areas, Volume 53, Number 2, Spring 2019, pp.
13-27 (Article)
Published by Tennessee State University College of Business
DOI:
For additional information about this article
Access provided by Ebsco Publishing (11 Sep 2018 13:19 GMT)
https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2019.0018
https://muse.jhu.edu/article/702993
https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2019.0018
https://muse.jhu.edu/article/702993
T h e J o u r n a l o f D e v e l o p i n g A r e a s
Volume 53 No. 2 Spring 2019
RETHINKING THE CURRENT INFLATION
TARGET RANGE IN SOUTH AFRICA
Lumengo Bonga-Bonga
Ntsakeseni Letitia Lebese
University of Johannesburg, South Africa
ABSTRACT
Critics argue that inflation targeting is not an appropriate monetary policy framework for
developing countries. They maintain that developing countries are more susceptible to the negative
effects of external shocks due to the uncertainty perceived by investors with respect to their
political and economic stability. It is in this line that this paper assesses whether the 3%-6%
inflation target is the optimal inflation target band in South Africa. To determine the optimal level
of inflation target in South Africa, this paper follows the methodology developed by Ball and
Mankiw (2002), which rests on the premise that there is a short run trade-off between inflation and
unemployment. Ball and Mankiw (2002) show that there exists a level of unemployment that is
consistent with stable inflation. The unemployment level that corresponds with a stable inflation is
known as the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). Thus, this paper uses an
expectations-augmented Phillips curve to estimate a time-varying NAIRU for South Africa from
1980 to 2015. We use the headline inflation rate and the official unemployment rate based on the
narrow definition to evaluate the appropriateness of the current inflation target range. Quarterly
data from 1980 to 2015 sourced from Quantec is used to this end. The results of the empirical
analysis indicate that, if South Africa were to put in place an inflation target range based on the
NAIRU, it would have to target an inflation rate that ranges from 1.4 to 11.5 percent. This range is
different to the official inflation target of 3% to 6% adopted by the South African Reserve Bank
(SARB). Furthermore, this paper finds that the Phillips curve is not vertical in South Africa, as
actual inflation does not depend solely on inflation expectations. The policy implication of the
findings of this paper is that the South African Reserve Bank should think about revising its current
inflation target, as it is too narrow for an emerging economy. The current low range of inflation
target could have a negative effect on output and unemployment.
Rethinking The Current Inflation Target Range In South Afric.docxaudeleypearl
Rethinking The Current Inflation Target Range In South
Africa
Lumengo Bonga-Bonga, Ntsakeseni Letitia Lebese
The Journal of Developing Areas, Volume 53, Number 2, Spring 2019, pp.
13-27 (Article)
Published by Tennessee State University College of Business
DOI:
For additional information about this article
Access provided by Ebsco Publishing (11 Sep 2018 13:19 GMT)
https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2019.0018
https://muse.jhu.edu/article/702993
https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2019.0018
https://muse.jhu.edu/article/702993
T h e J o u r n a l o f D e v e l o p i n g A r e a s
Volume 53 No. 2 Spring 2019
RETHINKING THE CURRENT INFLATION
TARGET RANGE IN SOUTH AFRICA
Lumengo Bonga-Bonga
Ntsakeseni Letitia Lebese
University of Johannesburg, South Africa
ABSTRACT
Critics argue that inflation targeting is not an appropriate monetary policy framework for
developing countries. They maintain that developing countries are more susceptible to the negative
effects of external shocks due to the uncertainty perceived by investors with respect to their
political and economic stability. It is in this line that this paper assesses whether the 3%-6%
inflation target is the optimal inflation target band in South Africa. To determine the optimal level
of inflation target in South Africa, this paper follows the methodology developed by Ball and
Mankiw (2002), which rests on the premise that there is a short run trade-off between inflation and
unemployment. Ball and Mankiw (2002) show that there exists a level of unemployment that is
consistent with stable inflation. The unemployment level that corresponds with a stable inflation is
known as the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). Thus, this paper uses an
expectations-augmented Phillips curve to estimate a time-varying NAIRU for South Africa from
1980 to 2015. We use the headline inflation rate and the official unemployment rate based on the
narrow definition to evaluate the appropriateness of the current inflation target range. Quarterly
data from 1980 to 2015 sourced from Quantec is used to this end. The results of the empirical
analysis indicate that, if South Africa were to put in place an inflation target range based on the
NAIRU, it would have to target an inflation rate that ranges from 1.4 to 11.5 percent. This range is
different to the official inflation target of 3% to 6% adopted by the South African Reserve Bank
(SARB). Furthermore, this paper finds that the Phillips curve is not vertical in South Africa, as
actual inflation does not depend solely on inflation expectations. The policy implication of the
findings of this paper is that the South African Reserve Bank should think about revising its current
inflation target, as it is too narrow for an emerging economy. The current low range of inflation
target could have a negative effect on output and unemployment ...
The Causal Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Output Gap in T...inventionjournals
The purpose of the paper is to study dynamic relationships between the inflation and output gap by using Granger causality, Impulse response and variance decompositions analysis within VECM framework for the quarterly data over the first period of 2003 and second period of 2016. The results of the study indicate that the output gap Granger cause the inflation in Turkey both in short-and long-runs. Also, sign of the causality is negative and same causal relationships between two variables hold beyond the sample period. The results should be taken as an evidence of the conclusion that the output gap has important implications for the CBRT's monetary policy.
THE CHALLENGE OF INFLATION AND ITS CONSUMPTION RELATIONpaperpublications3
Abstract: Indian economy is a developing economy and it faces many challenges from all directions. It also faces some extra challenges not only economic but also from other sectors of society. In this paper the challenge of inflation and its consumption relation is explained. Many economic experts and political world leaders accused Indian consumers for the world inflation rise. Indian particularly middle and lower income families feet the heat of the inflation more intensively than higher income group peoples. Inflation is basically problem of demand and supply equation, but many other factors also involved in it. Some dilemma of the inflation is presented in this paper. Not only people of India but also the central and states governments are also afraid of inflation. Many economists we well as politicians assumed that inflation is affecting the consumption or the consumer is the cause of inflation.
This document provides an abstract for a research paper that analyzes the relationship between economic growth and economic development in the Vaal Triangle region of South Africa. The research uses an economic development index that includes unemployment, poverty, and the human development index to measure economic development. A Vector Auto Regression model indicates that economic development leads to economic growth in the short run. Therefore, policies aimed at increasing human development and reducing unemployment and poverty can achieve sustainable economic growth in the short run. The full paper will include literature on economic growth and development theories, methodology using data from reliable sources, results, discussion, recommendations, and a conclusion.
11.exchange rate and macroeconomic aggregates in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the impact of exchange rates on macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria from 1970 to 2009. It uses simultaneous equation models and vector-autoregressive models to examine the relationship between real exchange rates and GDP growth. The results show no strong direct relationship between exchange rate changes and GDP growth. Rather, Nigeria's economic growth has been directly affected by fiscal and monetary policies and exports. Exchange rate overvaluation has been unfavorable for growth. The conclusion is that exchange rate management improvements are necessary but not sufficient to revive the Nigerian economy and broader economic reforms are required.
Exchange rate and macroeconomic aggregates in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the impact of exchange rates on macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria from 1970 to 2009. Using simultaneous equation models and vector-autoregressive models, the study finds no strong direct relationship between exchange rate changes and GDP growth in Nigeria. Rather, economic growth has been directly affected by fiscal and monetary policies and exports, which have sustained an overvalued exchange rate that has been unfavorable for growth. The conclusion is that improving exchange rate management is necessary but not sufficient to revive the Nigerian economy, and a broader program of economic reforms is required, including complementary restrictive monetary policy.
Critical Evaluation Of The Success Of Monetary PoliciesArzu ALVAN
The document discusses monetary policy and inflation in Turkey after 1980. It analyzes the relationship between inflation and monetary policy tools like money supply, required reserve ratio, and discount rate using Granger causality analysis. The results show bilateral causality between money supply and inflation, with money supply and required reserve ratio affecting inflation within 1 year and discount rate affecting inflation after around 4 years. It also finds that increases in inflation lead to increased money demand and money supply, fueling further price increases in Turkey.
This study examined the effect interest rate on economic growth in Nigeria. Augmented Dickey – Fuller (ADF), Bound Test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) were employed to examine the effect of impact of interest rate on economic growth in Nigeria. The unit root test showed gross domestic product was 1(0) while interest rate, investment and gross capital formation were 1(1). The result of the Bound Test indicated long run relationship among the macroeconomic variables employed in the study. The result of the ARDL indicated that interest rate had negative effect on economic growth both in short run and long run. However, in the long run investment and gross capital formation were established to have positive effect on economic growth with gross capital formation being insignificant. It was concluded that interest rate has a macroeconomic tool is not effective in stimulating economic growth in Nigeria. It was recommended that the level of interest rate should be adequately controlled for the purpose of stimulating economic growth without inflationary pressure. Finally, robust macroeconomic policies aimed at ensuring economic stability should be formulated in order to increase capital formation and attract investment in order to promote economic growth.
Can Changes in Age Structure have an impact on the Inflation Rate?The Case o...WilliamTWang1
Demographics in different parts of the world are facing an aging population and a diminishing growth in population, particularly high-income countries. This paper estimates the relationship between the growth of age composition and the inflation rate while including other macroeconomic variables as explanatory variables to ensure the model has a good fit to the true model. This paper estimates the case in the United States of America from 1960 to 2016, studying the relationship between the inflation rate and the growth rate of the proportion in different age cohorts. The results show a consistent and significant relationship between the growth in the proportion of different age cohort and inflation rate,
in which the increase in the proportion of net savers (age between 30 – 64 years old) and retirees
(age between 65 and above) in the economy encourages higher inflation rate. This can be explained by the Life Cycle Hypothesis combined with other economic theories. In any case, the results suggest that demographic has an association with the inflation rate in which the projection of age composition in the future can be used as a tool to better forecast the inflation rate. This could open the possibility for monetary authorities to better implement monetary policy to sustain their mandate.
This document summarizes a study examining the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Ethiopia from 2000 to 2019. The study used time series data and various econometric tests including unit root tests, cointegration tests, and Granger causality tests. The results found that inflation and economic growth were cointegrated, indicating a long-run relationship. However, the Granger causality tests found no evidence that either inflation or economic growth Granger causes the other, suggesting their influence is contemporaneous. The document provides context on debates around the relationship between inflation and growth and reviews related literature, finding mixed results on the nature and direction of the relationship in different countries and time periods.
International Trade and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for UgandaPremier Publishers
International Trade and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for Uganda analyzes the long-run relationship between trade and economic growth in Uganda from 1982 to 2018 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The results show that in the short-run, imports reduced economic growth while exports increased it. However, in the long-run, inflation reduced economic growth. Unit root tests confirmed the variables were integrated of order one (I(1)), allowing for cointegration tests which found a long-run relationship between the variables.
CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND INFLATION IN NIGERIAAJHSSR Journal
ABSTRACT :This study examined the impact of inflation and capital market development in Nigeria. The
ultimate objective of the study is centered on an empirical investigation of inflation and its impact on the growth
of the Nigerian capital market, and also the trend of inflation and capital market development in Nigeria. In
order to achieve these objectives, the study used tables and graphs to examine the trend of inflation and capital
market development in Nigeria. Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test was used to check the behavior of data,
and the ARDL bound test was used to check if variables are cointegrated. Post estimation test which includes
the serial correlation, heteroskedasticity and the histogram normality test was also conducted. Data were
collected from secondary sources, such as central bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin and the world development
indicator. The unit root test revealed that the financial sector, financial intermediaries and interest rate were
stationary at levels but exchange rate, inflation, government spending and trade openness became stationary
after the first difference. Empirical findings confirmed that there is a statistically significant long- and short-run
negative effect of inflation on capital market development. On the contrary, economic growth has a statistically
significant long- and short-run positive impact on capital market performance. In addition, results confirmed
that there is positive support of the previous financial sector policies on capital market performance in the
current period.
Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Dominance and the Conduct of Monetary Policy in ...AJHSSR Journal
The study empirically investigates fiscal dominance and the conduct of monetary policy in
Nigeria, using quarterly data from 1986Q1 to 2016Q4. It adopts the vector error correction mechanism (VECM)
and cointegration technique to analyze the data and make inference. The findings reveal that there is no
evidence of fiscal dominance in Nigeria. The empirical results show that budget deficit, domestic debt and
money supply have no significant influence on the average price level. However, budget deficit and domestic
debt are shown to have significant influence on money supply, but only in the short-run. The policy implication
is that the government should enforce fiscal discipline through the appropriate institution and the Central Bank
should be given autonomy to perform the primary function of long-term price stability, among other functions.
INFLATION, INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE RATE IN NIGERIA: AN EXAMINATION OF THE ...AJHSSR Journal
ABSTRACT: This study examined the linkages among inflation, interest rate and exchange rate along with
money supply and GDP with the aim of showing how the interactions among variables should influence
monetary policy decisions in Nigeria using quarterly data from 2010 to 2018. The relationship among variables
was captured in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Co integration test was used to examine the long run
relationship among variables and consequently the estimates of a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model was
used to examine the short run relationship among variables. In our findingsexchange rate is indicated as the
most important monetary policy variable because it has a significant link with all variables in the model. The
findings show that price stability and economic growth could be achieve through effective exchange rate and
interest rate policies. It is recommended that the monetary authority should continue to intervene in the foreign
exchange market to stabilize exchange rate because as shown in this study, exchange rate in Nigeria has
significant links with inflation, interest rate, money supply and GDP; and increase in money supply to boost
domestic production by givinglow cost credit to firms that make use of more domestic inputs in production to
ensure that the increase in money supply does not lead to increase in import.
Stock market volatility and macroeconomic variables volatility in nigeria an ...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examines the relationship between stock market volatility and macroeconomic variable volatility in Nigeria from 1986 to 2010. The study uses an EGARCH model to estimate volatility and a LA-VAR Granger causality test to analyze the nexus between stock market volatility and macroeconomic variables. The results found evidence of a bi-causal relationship between stock market volatility and real GDP volatility, and no causal relationship between stock market volatility and interest rate or inflation rate volatility.
Assessment on economic growth of development indicators in aseanAlexander Decker
1) The document analyzes the relationship between economic growth and development indicators like mortality rate, life expectancy, and unemployment rate in 5 ASEAN countries from 1980 to 2010 using panel data analysis.
2) It reviews literature showing economic growth is linked to lower unemployment through Okun's Law and increased income is associated with lower mortality rates.
3) The study aims to determine if there is a long-term relationship between economic growth and the selected development indicators in ASEAN countries, as predicted by economic theory.
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining.pdfNeal Brewster
After this first you should: Understand the nature of mining; have an awareness of the industry’s boundaries, corporate structure and size; appreciation the complex motivations and objectives of the industries’ various participants; know how mineral reserves are defined and estimated, and how they evolve over time.
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...sameer shah
Delve into the world of STREETONOMICS, where a team of 7 enthusiasts embarks on a journey to understand unorganized markets. By engaging with a coffee street vendor and crafting questionnaires, this project uncovers valuable insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics in informal settings."
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
How Non-Banking Financial Companies Empower Startups With Venture Debt Financing
Inflation
1. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4)2013: 363-380
363
IMPACT OF INFLATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE STUDY OF
TANZANIA
Faraji KASIDI1
Kenani MWAKANEMELA2
ABSTRACT
Like several other countries both industrialised and non-industrialised, one of the central
objectives of macroeconomic policies in Tanzania is to promote economic growth and to keep
inflation at a low level. However, there has been substantial debate on whether inflation promotes
or harms economic growth. Motivated by this controversial, this study examined the impact of
inflation on economic growth and established the existence of inflation growth relationship. Time-
series data for the period 1990 -2011 were used to examine the impact of inflation on economic
growth. Correlation coefficient and co-integration technique established the relationship between
inflation and GDP and Coefficient of elasticity were applied to measure the degree of
responsiveness of change in GDP to changes in general price levels. Results suggest that inflation
has a negative impact on economic growth. The study also revealed that there was no co-
integration between inflation and economic growth during the period of study. No long-run
relationship between inflation and economic growth in Tanzania.
Keywords: Inflation, Economic growth, Co-integration, Dickey-Fuller, Phillip-Prron
INTRODUCTION
To attain sustainable economic growth coupled with price stability continues to be the central
objective of macroeconomic policies for most countries in the world today. Among others the
emphasis given to price stability in conduct of monetary policy is with a view to promoting
sustainable economic growth as well as strengthening the purchasing power of the domestic
currency (Umaru and Zubairu, 2012). The question on whether or not inflation is harmful to
economic growth has recently been a subject of intense debate to policy makers and macro
economists. Several studies have estimated a negative relationship between inflation and economic
1
Institute of Accountancy Arusha. Faraji Kasidi, Institute of Accountancy Arusha, P. O. Box 2798, Tanzania
Email: fkasidi@gmail.com
Asian Journal of Empirical Research
journal homepage: http://aessweb.com/journal-detail.php?id=5004
2. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4)2013: 363-380
364
growth. Specifically the bone of contention is that whether inflation is necessary for economic
growth or it is detrimental to growth. Basically the rate of economic growth depends primarily on
the rate of capital formation and the rate of capital formation depends on the rate of savings and
investment (Datta and Kumar, 2011). World economic growth and inflation rates have been
fluctuating. Likewise, inflation rates have been dominating to compare with growth rates in
virtually many years (Madhukar and Nagarjuna, 2011) and relationship between inflation and the
economic growth continued to be one of the most macroeconomic problems. Similarly, Ahmed
(2010) maintains that this relationship has been argued in various economic literatures and these
arguments shown differences in relation with the condition of world economy order. In accordance
with these policies, increases in the total demand caused increases in production and inflation too.
However, inflation was not regarded as a problem in that period rather considered as a positive
impact on the economic growth which was widely accepted. Amid these views, Phillips first
introduced hypothesizes that high inflation positively affects the economic growth by lowering
unemployment rates.
In 1970s, countries with high inflation especially the Latin American countries begun to experience
a decrease in growth rates and thus caused the emergence of the views stating that inflation has
negative effects on the economic growth instead of the positive effects. Evidence showing
relationship between inflation and economic growth from some of the Asian countries such as India
showed that the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in India increased from 3.5% in the
1970s to 5.5% in the 1980s while the inflation rate accelerated steadily from an annual average of
1.7% during the 1950s to 6.4% in the 1960s and further to 9.0% in the 1970s before easing
marginally to 8.0% in the 1980s (Prasanna and Gopakumar, 2010). Likely, for the case of China,
Xiao (2009) revealed that from 1961 to 1977, China’s real GDP growth and real GDP per capita
growth averaged at 4.84% and 2.68% respectively. Since 1978, China’s economy grew steadily
although growth rate fluctuated among the years. From 1978 to 2007, the growth rate of China’s
real GDP and real GDP per capita were recorded at 9.992% and 8.69% respectively. The
experiences from East African countries, for example showed that Kenya had 5 years of very
positive economic development with four consecutive years of growth above 4%. But average
annual inflation of Kenya increased from 18.5% in June 2008 to 27.2% in March 2009, before
falling marginally to 24.3% in July 2009. Uganda was one of the faster growing economies in
Africa with sustained growth averaging 7.8 % since 2000 with the annual inflation rate decreasing
from5.1% in 2006 to 3.5% in 2009. The average annual real GDP growth rate for Rwanda from
1990-1999 was -0.1 but from 2006 to 2009, Rwanda had an annual average growth rate of 7.3%
(Stein, 2010). Since late 1970s, Tanzanian economy experienced many internal and external
shocks. All sectors of the economy were affected by shocks, whose manifestations were, among
others, large budget deficits and an imbalance between productive and non-productive activities.
The signs closely associated with these were high rates of inflation, large balance of payments
(BOP) deficits, declining domestic savings, growing government expenditure, falling agricultural
3. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4)2013: 363-380
365
produce and decreased utilization of industrial capacity which in turn hindered economic growth
(Kilindo, 1997). With regard to Tanzanian economy, Ndyeshobola (1983) indicated that between
1964 and 1969 there was very low inflation (0.3% and 3.2%) on the average for the National
Consumer Price Index (NCPI) and National Food Price Index (NFPI) respectively. After 1972, the
NCPI rose by an average of 16% until 1975, (with peaks of 19% in 1974 and 25.9% in 1975). The
NCPI in 1974 and 1975 seems to have been caused by the severe food problems prevailing during
the second half of 1973. The NFPI reached as high as 35.0% in 1974 and 30.6% in 1975.
Tanzania’s economic growth has shown an erratic trend as it recorded an average GDP growth rate
of about 3% between 1991 and 2000, the GDP growth rate in 1992 was only 0.584%, while the
rates in 1996 and 2000 were 4.6% and 5.1% respectively (Odhiambo, 2011).
Between 1952 to 1970 economic growth rate of 5.2 percent was coupled with single digit rates of
official inflation, with the exclusion of the period of 1966-70 when the rate of inflation was 11.7
percent. From 1965 to 1985 the rate of economic growth constantly declined as the rate of inflation
continuously increased. Tanzania showed steady price stability in the 1950s and 1960s. Annual
average rates of inflation were low, in a single digit, at about 4.5% and 9.3 % during 1950s and
1960s respectively. But the rates rose to 10.5% in 1973, before it reached 26.5% in 1975. During
1980-1985 the average highest rate of inflation, 27.3% was coupled with the lowest rate of
economic growth of 0.9%. Moreover, studies revealed that, as the economy recovered during 1986-
1990, the average rate of inflation decreased to 23.9% in turn average growth rate rose to 3.7 %
(Shitundu and Luvanda, 2000). A central objective of Tanzania’s macroeconomic policies is to
promote economic growth and to keep inflation on a low level. However, in recent years there has
been substantial debate on the relationship between inflation and economic growth. Some scholars,
mainly those in favour of the Structural and Keynesian perspectives tend to believe that inflation is
not harmful to economic growth whereas other scholars particularly those in favour of monetarist
views, argue that inflation is harmful to economic growth. Some findings say that there is
significant short-run relationship but not in the long-run (Datta and Kumar, 2011). Motivated by
this economic controversial, this study investigated the impact of inflation on economic growth in
Tanzania.
Objectives of the study
Specifically the study aimed at achieving the following objectives:
i. To examine the impact of inflation on economic growth in Tanzania over the period 1990-
2011
ii. To measure the degree of responsiveness of Tanzanian economic growth (GDP) to
changes in the general price levels (Inflation rate).
iii. To establish the relationship between inflation and GDP growth rate in Tanzania.
4. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4)2013: 363-380
366
Justification of the study
This study is very important to macroeconomists, financial analyst, academicians, policy makers
and central bankers officials in understanding the responsiveness of GDP to the change in general
price level and thus come up with the relevant policies so as to keep prices at the reasonable rate
that stimulate production. It is necessary to policy makers to clear doubt as many studies on the
relationship between inflation and economic growth remains inconclusive, several empirical studies
confirm the existence of either a positive or negative relationship between these two
macroeconomic variables. For example, Mubarik (2005) found that low and stable inflation
promotes economic growth and vice versa. Also the study carried by Shitundu and Luvanda, (2000)
on the effect of inflation on economic growth in Tanzania concluded that inflation has been
harmful to economic growth in Tanzania but they did not show the degree of responsiveness of
GDP growth rate to changes in the general price levels. This study examined the impact of inflation
on economic growth in Tanzania by showing the degree of responsiveness of change in GDP due to
change in general price levels in Tanzania and thus filling the existing knowledge gap.
LITERATURE REVIEW
There is a huge survey of literature, which investigated theoretical and empirical aspects of
relationship between inflation and economic growth. This section presents literature on the impact
of inflation on economic growth.
Selected empirical literature review
A way back, Fischer (1993) used both cross-section and panel data that included both industrialised
and developing economies to present a seminal contribution to the literature in exploring the
possibility of a non-linear relationship between inflation and economic growth in the long-run. In
his study, he found that the existence of significant negative association between inflation and
economic growth. He also observed that inverse relationship dampens inflation rates after 40% in
addition to establishing the existence of non-linearities in the inflation-growth nexus. Ghosh and
Phillips, (1998) maintain that while there is no doubt about the fact that high inflation is bad for
growth, there is less agreement about the effect of moderate inflation. Using panel regressions
which allowed for nonlinearity specification, they found a statistically and economically significant
inverse relationship between inflation and economic growth which holds robustly at all but the least
inflation rates. They concluded that short-run growth costs of disinflation are only relevant for the
most severe disinflations or when the initial inflation rate is well within the single-digit range.
Quartey, (2010) using the Johansen co-integration methodology, investigated whether the revenue
maximising rate of inflation is growth maximising in Ghana. He found that there is a negative
impact of inflation on growth. Furthermore, the study found a revenue maximising rate of inflation
at 9.14 percent over the period 1970-2006 using the Laffer curve. He further established that the
rate of inflation that is growth maximising is not a single digit one. Barro, (1995) made an
assessment on the effects of inflation on economic performance using data for around 100 countries
5. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4)2013: 363-380
367
over the period 1960-1990. His study reached to a conclusion that if a number of country
characteristics are held constant, then the regression results suggested that an increase in average
inflation of 10 percent per annum reduces the growth rate of real GDP by 0.2 to 0.3 percent per
annum and lowers the ratio of investment to GDP by 0.4 to 0.6 percent. In addition, Barro (1996)
conducted another empirical study using panel data of around 100 countries from 1960 to 1990. He
revealed that for a given starting level of real per capita GDP, the growth rate is enhanced by lower
inflation, higher initial schooling and life expectancy, lower fertility, lower government
consumption, better maintenance of rule of law, and improvements in the terms of trade. Marbuah,
(2010) investigated the relationship between inflation and economic growth to ascertain whether a
significant threshold effect existed in the case of Ghana over the period 1955-2009. The study
found evidence of significant threshold effect of inflation on economic growth with and without
structural break. Specifically, the evidence showed both a minimum and maximum inflation
threshold levels of 6% and 10% respectively. Moreover, the study found that adjusting for
structural break in the model increases the effect of inflation on growth at a robust threshold level
of 10% by a factor of 1.8 or approximately 81%.He concluded by recommending to continue
pursuing the inflation targeting framework by keeping inflation targets below 10% for beyond 10%
threshold, inflation can be detrimental to Ghana’s growth prospects.
Hasanov, (2010) employed annual data set on growth rate of real GDP, Consumer Price Index
Inflation and growth rate of real Gross Fixed Capital Formation to investigate whether there was
any threshold effect of inflation on economic growth over the period of 2001-2009. Estimated
threshold model indicated that there was non-linear relationship between inflation and economic
growth in the Azerbaijani economy and threshold level of inflation for GDP growth was 13
percent. Inflation rate lower than 13 percent reflected statistically significant positive effect on
GDP growth but this positive relationship became negative when inflation exceeded 13 percent. He
added that, economic growth was expected to decline by about 3 percent when inflation increased
above the 13 percent threshold. Umaru and Zubairu, (2012) suggested that all the variables in the
unit root model were stationary and the results of causality revealed that GDP caused inflation and
not inflation causing GDP. The results also revealed that inflation possessed a positive impact on
economic growth through encouraging productivity and output level and on evolution of total
factor productivity. Mallik and Chowdhury, (2001) found two results: First, the relationship
between inflation and economic growth is positive and statistically significant for Bangladesh,
Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka. Second, the sensitivity of growth to changes in inflation rates was
smaller than that of inflation to changes in growth rates. The policy implication of these results was
the fact that although moderate inflation promotes economic growth, faster economic growth
absorbs into inflation by overheating the economy.
Frimpong and Oteng-Abayie, (2010) found a threshold effect of inflation on economic growth of
11 percent for Ghana over the period 1960-2008 though failing the test of significance at that level.
6. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4)2013: 363-380
368
They also estimated a robust 11 percent threshold inflation level with close coefficients after
dropping growth rate of aggregate labour force and money supply growth which were found to be
insignificant in the OLS models. They further revealed that even at relatively lower threshold
levels, inflation is still significant. But their study however, failed to check for sensitivity of the
estimated coefficients across sub-samples of the full sample period to establish a new evidence of
the threshold effect. The study thus concluded by highlighting the need to extend the context of
analysis to deal with lower threshold levels in search of that evidence. On the other hand, Bick et
al. (2009) empirically expanded the scope of Khan and Senhadji, (2001) by modelling a large
panel-dataset of 124 industrialized and developing countries over the period from 1950 to 2004.
Using a dynamic panel threshold model to shed light on the impact of inflation on economic
growth, they found an inflation target of about 2 percent for industrialized countries and 17 percent
for developing economies. Below the 17 percent threshold, the impact of inflation on economic
growth remained insignificant, thus failing to support the growth-enhancing effects of inflation on
economic growth in non-industrialized economies. Nell, (2000) examined the issue if inflation was
detrimental to economic growth or not by using Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) technique. Data for
the period from 1960-1999 was used and his empirical results suggested that inflation within the
single-digit zone may be beneficial to economic growth, while inflation in the double digit zone
tends to limit economic growth.
Sergii, (2009) found that growth - inflation interaction was strictly concave with some threshold
level of inflation. Inflation threshold level is estimated using a non-linear least squares technique,
and inference made by applying a bootstrap approach. The main findings were that inflation rate
above 8 percent tend to slow down economic growth while below 8 percent promotes economic
growth. Espinoza et al. (2010) examined threshold effect of inflation on GDP Growth by using a
panel data of 165 countries including Oil Exporting Countries and Azerbaijan over the period of
1960-2007. Their study found that for all country groups’ threshold level of inflation for GDP
growth was about 10 percent (with the exclusion of industrialized countries where threshold level
was much lower). Estimated results suggested that inflation from higher than 13 percent decreases
real non-oil GDP by 207 percent per year. Lastly, review of literature on money supply and
exchange rate influence on economic growth and inflation. Mehari and Wondafrash, (2008)
revealed that money supply had a direct impact on inflation. Mwase, (2006) indicated that currency
appreciation is associated with a decrease in inflation rate, with one quarter lag.
METHODS OF DATA ANALYSIS
To achieve objectives of this study, the researchers used three methods of analysis, each for one
objective. The study used reduced form regression equation (ILS) to investigate the impact of
inflation on economic growth. Coefficient of elasticity was used to measure the degree of
responsiveness of change in GDP growth rate due to change in general price levels. Co-integration
7. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4)2013: 363-380
369
technique was applied to measure whether the two variables (inflation and economic growth)
moved together in the long-run.
Reduced form regression equation
In order to investigate the impact of inflation on economic growth in Tanzania, the researchers
modified the following model adopted from Khan and Senhadji, (2001) for the analysis of
threshold level of inflation for Bangladesh.
tttt UKINFLDINFLGDP )(210 (1)
Where GDP stands for Gross domestic product, INFL= Inflation, tU = error term, D= Dummy
variable, and K is the threshold level of inflation (the rate of inflation at which structural break
occurs). The model by Khan and Senhadji, (2001) was modified by the researchers so as to
examine the impact of inflation on economic growth in Tanzania as follows:
ttt UINFLGDP 10 (2)
Where, GDP= Growth rate of real Gross Domestic Product, INFL= Inflation, tU = error term and
10 and are parameters. After getting reduced form regression equation, the study established
coefficient of elasticity by differentiating the equations with respect to Inflation (INFL).
Coefficient of elasticity as the measure of degree of responsiveness
This study employed the logarithmic techniques to measure the responsiveness of GDP to changes
in general price level. Moreover, Ramanathan (2002) underlined elasticity with non-linear
regression equation by using )ln()ln( XY as an example. He interpreted as
elasticity. Kasidi, (2010) added that in the basic regression without logs, Y tends to change by
units for a one unit change in X . However, in the regression containing both logged dependent and
explanatory variables Y tends to change by percent for one percent change in X . That is,
instead of having to worry about units of measurements, regression results using logged variables
are always interpreted as elasticity. Therefore, for the purpose of getting elasticity in the linear
reduced form regression equation, the formula adopted a model in Ramanathan, (2002):
;10 XY Where its elasticity becomes
Y
X1 (3)
Where Y= GDP Growth rate and X=Inflation rate (INFL). When equation (2) is transformed into
logarithm it becomes as:
;10 tt LogINFLLogGDP where its elasticity becomes 1 (4)
Equation (4) measured the degree of responsiveness of change in Tanzanian GDP growth rate to
changes in the general price levels.
8. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4)2013: 363-380
370
Unit root test for stationary of data
The major purpose for conducting unit root test is that if we use the data without checking their
stationarity properties, the results derived from the regression models would produce the so called
spurious results (Datta and Kumar, 2011). Before estimating our modified model in the equation
(2) it was very important to test out stochastic properties of the variables to be estimated.
Habitually this task is realised by conducting unit root test. However, one of the weaknesses of unit
root test is related to small number of observations and that a minimum number of 20 observations
are required so as to get reliable results which can be made inference (Gujarati and Porter, 2009;
Gujarati, 2004). The analysis was done using the Dickey-Fuller (DF) or more convenient ADF that
is Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root test. The study proceeded with the
estimation of the model in equation (2). The null hypothesis for the two tests was unit root or the
time series was non-stationary (i.e. δ = 0) while the alternative hypothesis states that there is no unit
root or the time series was stationary (i.e. 0 ).The general form of DF and ADF is estimated by
using the following models:
ttt YY 1 (5a)
If =1, equation (5a) becomes a random walk, that is, a non stationary process. As a result of this
there tends to be the so called unit root problem which means there is a situation of non stationarity
in the series. However, if <1, this means that the series tY is stationary. However, the unit root
problem can be eliminated or stationarity can be achieved by differencing the data set (Wei 2006).
The basic idea behind the ADF unit root test for non stationarity is to simply regress tY on its (one
period) lagged value 1tY and find out if the estimated is statistically equal to one or not. In this
case, equation (5a) can be further manipulated by subtracting 1tY from both sides and obtain:
tttt YYY 11 )1( (5b)
If equation (5b) is re-written as following:
ttt YY 1 (5c)
Where ),1( and is the difference operator. Practically, instead of estimating equation
(5a), the study estimated equation (5c) and tested for the null hypothesis of 0 against the
alternative hypothesis of 0 . If 0 , then =1 which means that there is a unit root problem
and the series under consideration is non-stationary. The decision to accept or not to accept the null
hypothesis of 0 was based on the Dickey-Fuller critical values of the || tau statistic. The
ADF test tends to include the lags of the first difference in the regression equation so as to make
9. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4)2013: 363-380
371
the error term t white noise and thus, the testing procedure for the ADF unit root test is applied to
the following model:
t
p
j
jtjtt yyty
1
110 (5d)
From equation (5d), 0 is a constant, 1 the coefficient on a time trend series, the coefficient of
1ty which measures the unit root, is the lag order of the autoregressive process, j is a measure
of lag length, 1 ttt yyy are first differences of ty , 1ty are lagged values of order one of ty ,
jty are changes in lagged values, and it is the white noise (Ssekuma, 2011).
In testing the unit root, the researcher employed ADF instead of DF test because the ADF took care
of possible serial correlation in the error terms by including the lagged difference of the de pendent
variable. Moreover, Phillips-Perron was used to test for the presence of unit root because it also
take care of serial correlation in the error terms by using the non-parametric statistical method
without addition of lagged difference terms (Hussain 2011). The Phillip-Perron test is based on the
following model:
tttt yyTty 11)1()2/( (6)
Co-integration test
Two variables are said to be co-integrated if they have a long-term, or long run equilibrium,
relationship between them. If two variables, dependent and an independent, are individually non-
stationary but their residual (combination) is stationary, those variables are co-integrated on the
long run (Gujarati, 2004; Yang, 2000). In this case the researchers used the Johansen co-integration
test to test co-integration since it is the only test which can estimate more than one co-integration
relationship if the data set contains two or more time series as well as gives the maximum rank of
co-integration (Ssekuma, 2011).
According to Hjalmarsson and Osterholm, (2007), the Johansen’s methodology takes its starting
point in the vector autoregression (VAR) of order given by:
tttt yyy .........11 (7a)
10. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4)2013: 363-380
372
Where ty is an 1n vector of variables that are integrated of order one, commonly denoted by I
(1), and t is an 1n vector of innovations. This VAR can be re-written as:
tit
i
itt yyy
1
1
1 (7b)
1i
i and
1ij
ji (7c)
If the coefficient matrix has reduced rank, nr then there exist rn matrices and each
with rank r such that
and ty
is stationary. r is a number of co-integrating
relationships, the elements of are known as the adjustment parameters in the vector error
correction model and each column of is a co-integrating vector.
It can be shown that for a given r , the maximum likelihood estimator of defines the combination
of 1ty that yields the r largest canonical correlations of ty with 1ty after correcting for lagged
differences and deterministic variables when present. Johansen proposes two different likelihood
ratio tests of the significance of these canonical correlations and thereby the reduced rank of
matrix: the Trace Test (TT) and maximum eigenvalue test are shown in equations (7d) and (7e)
respectively.
)ˆ1(ln
1
i
n
ri
trace TJ
(7d)
)ˆ1(1 1max rnTJ (7e)
Where T is the sample size, and iˆ is the
th
i largest canonical correlation. The TT tests the null
hypothesis of r co-integrating vectors against the alternative hypothesis of n co-integrating vectors.
The maximum eigenvalue test, on the other side, tests the null hypothesis of r co-integrating
vectors against the alternative hypothesis of r+1 co-integrating vectors.
DATA ANALYSIS, INTERPRETATION AND DISCUSSION
The study analyzed Unit root tests, co-integration test, and empirical impact of inflation on
economic growth by using reduced form regression equation. Analysis of sensitivity of economic
growth (GDP) on inflation as well as relationship between inflation and economic growth were put
11. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4)2013: 363-380
373
forward quantitatively. Data analysis followed chorological order of the objectives stated above
starting stationarity test by applying Unit root test results.
UNIT ROOT TEST RESULTS
Before testing for co-integration, researchers conducted unit root test on the variables under study
to establish the stationarity properties of the data. Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests and Phillips
Perron tests were employed on each of the two time series variables. The results for the two tests
are presented in Table 1 and 2.
Table 1: Results: unit root test (level variables)
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Phillips-Perron
Variable Test Statistics Critical value
at 5%
Test Statistics Critical value
at 5%
GDP -1.572 -3.000 -1.645 -3.000
INFL -1.607 -3.000 -1.629 -3.000
Table 2: Results: unit root test (First Difference)
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Phillips-Perron
Variable Test Statistics Critical value
at 5%
Test Statistics Critical value
at 5%
GDP -4.126 -3.000 -4.130 -3.000
INFL -4.161 -3.000 -3.912 -3.000
Table-1 and 2, results of the unit root tests revealed that GDP and inflation were non-stationary
without lag. The computed absolute values of the tau statistics (| |) do not exceed the ADF (or
MacKinnon) critical tau values, implying that we cannot to reject the null hypothesis (δ = 0) that
there was unit root or the time series was non-stationary. The same applied to Phillips-Perron test
whereby the computed absolute values of the tau statistics (| |) do not exceed the ADF (or
MacKinnon) critical tau values. On the other hand, Table-2 showed that both variables became
stationary after first difference as the computed absolute values of the tau statistics (| |) exceeded
the ADF (or MacKinnon critical tau values, which led the researchers to accept the null hypothesis
(δ = 0). However, the test at first difference was performed with no constant (no intercept) meaning
that the process under null hypothesis is a random walk without drift, meaning that the time series
data observed a difference stationary process (DSP).
Co-integration test
Two variables are said to be co-integrated if they have a long-term, or long run equilibrium,
relationship between them. If two variables, dependent and an independent, are individually non-
stationary but their residual (combination) is stationary, those variables are co-integrated (Gujarati,
12. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4)2013: 363-380
374
2004). If two time series variables are integrated of order one, I (1), there could be a linear
combination between them which may be integrated of order zero, I (0) (Green 2002). To establish
co-integration, the test was conducted by using Johansen co-integration test. Table 4.3 presented
the results of the test.
Table 3: Results: Johansen tests for co-integration
Trend : constant Number of observations = 20
Sample: 1992-2011 Lags = 2
Maximum rank Parms LL Eigenvalue Trace statistic 5% critical value
0 6 -110.81099 - 10.0768* 15.41
1 9 -106.89296 0.32416 2.2408 3.76
2 10 -105.77256 0.10599
Results in Table-3 revealed that the researchers cannot reject the null of having no rank (that is, the
first significant values where trace statistics is less than critical value at 5 percent was found at
maximum rank of zero. The results suggested that there is no co-integration. This is because the
Johansen’s test for co-integration is based on maximum likelihood estimation and two statistics:
maximum eigenvalues and a trace statistics, and that if the rank is zero means there are no co-
integration relationship. The rank is one there is one, if it is two there are two (Parlow, 2010).
These results are in line with the results found by Chimobi, (2010) in the study of the relationship
between inflation and economic growth in Nigeria. The inclusion of lags is often necessary in order
for the regression model to be able to predict the future, that is, to predict what will happen in the
period (t) based on knowledge of what happened up to (t-1) (see Ernst et al., 2005). Due to the
absence of co-integration researcher did not run an Error Correction Model.
The impact of inflation on economic growth
To estimate the impact of inflation on economic growth the study applied regression techniques as
explained above. To quantify the extent of the impact, the researchers measured impact of inflation
on economic growth using linear regression equation as illustrated below. Results for regression
equation with and without lags are presented in equation 1(a) and 1(b) respectively. Lags were
included in order for the regression model to be able to predict the future, that is, to predict what
will happen in the period (t) based on knowledge of what happened up to (t-1) (see Ernst, Nau and
Bar-Joseph, 2005).
148105141.024506.18 tt INFLGDP (1a)
(10.55) (-4.72)
R2
= 0.5400
tt INFLGDP 5358219.084073.18 (1b)
13. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4)2013: 363-380
375
(12.26) (-5.95)
R2
= 0.6394
The estimated equation (1a) uncovered that the impact of inflation on Tanzania GDP can be
interpreted that as the general price level (inflation) goes up by one percent (1%), economic growth
(GDP) goes down by 48.105%. The coefficient of determination (R2
) = 0.54 implied that 54% of
the variations in economic growth (GDP) have been explained by inflation and about 46% was
captured by other factors which have substantial influence on GDP but were excluded from the
model. This is because the economic growth does not only get influenced by inflation but also by
other factors such as higher initial schooling and life expectancy, lower fertility, lower government
consumption, better maintenance of rule of law, and improvements in the terms of trade (see Barro,
1996). Since the large percentage of variations in GDP was explained by inflation, this means that
inflation has strong contribution to economic growth (GDP) of Tanzanian economy. Moreover, the
summary of the results showed that the impact of inflation on economic growth is statistically
significant at 5 percent level for its absolute t-values was greater than two (Gujarati, 2004). The
regressor inflation has the sign that accord with prior expectations, that is, inflation has a negative
impact on economic growth. The estimated equation (1b), on the other hand, indicated that the
impact of inflation on Tanzania GDP can be interpreted that a decrease in GDP by 53.582% was a
result of an increase in the general price by 1%. The Coefficient of Determination (R2
) = 0.6394
implied that about 64% of changes in economic growth (GDP) have been explained by inflation
and only 36% was captured by other factors which were not included in the model.
A slight difference in results from the estimated equation (1a) and (1b) precipitated the researchers
to make conclusion based on equation (1b) results. This is because the Coefficient of
Determination (R2
) in estimated equation (1b) is relatively higher compared to that of equation
(1a). The implication of this is that, the impact to GDP in equation (1b) has been explained by
inflation by large percentage than that of equation (1a). Moreover, the absolute values of t statistics
are relatively larger in equation (1b) than that of estimated equation (1a) implying that the impact
of inflation on economic growth is statistically significant at 5 percent level. These results agreed
with various theories of inflation and economic growth (Monetarists) as well as other previous
researchers such as (Barro, 1995; Ghosh and Phillips, 1998; Quartey, 2010). These statistically
significant results indicated that persistent increase in the general price has a negative impact on
economic growth in Tanzania.
The degree of responsiveness of GDP to inflation
The study applied regression equation to determine the degree of responsiveness of GDP to
changes in the general level of prices as illustrated below. Results for regression equation is
presented in equation (2) below:
14. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4)2013: 363-380
376
tt INFLGDP ln8047261.0848391.1ln (2)
(18.31) (-8.90)
R2
= 0.7983
Prognostication of the log-log results produced very interesting results to the question about
responsiveness of GDP to general price changes. The elasticity coefficient of GDP to inflation rate
is inelastic due to the fact that inflation rate is a very important macroeconomic variable to the
changes of GDP. The result showed that Tanzanian GDP is inelastic on inflation because the value
of estimated coefficient 1
ˆ (-0.8047261) is less than one. The result was also statistically
significant at 5 percent level. From these results the study concluded that the degree of
responsiveness of change in GDP due to changes in the general price levels in Tanzania is inelastic
to the tune of -0.8. Also R2
= 0.7983 is very strong indicating that about 79.83% responsiveness of
GDP has been explained by changes in the general price levels.
The relationship between economic growth and inflation
To quantify the extent to which Inflation is related to GDP, the study estimated variables (GDP and
inflation) and correlation coefficient. The results for estimated variables and correlation
coefficients are provided in equation (3) and (4) below:
tt INFLGDP 5358219.084073.18 (3)
(12.26) (-5.95)
R2 =
0.6394
The results showed that there was negative relationship between inflation and economic growth in
Tanzanian economy in the period of study. The results implied that as the general level of prices
increases, the GDP decreases. This means that an increase in the general price level (inflation rate)
by 1% results in a decrease of GDP by 18.305%. This could imply that an increase in the general
price level was harmful to economic growth. In addition, the study decided to regress Inflation
against GDP in order to know the nature of relationship when Inflation was dependent variable and
GDP was independent variable. The results for the estimation of Inflation are provided in equation
(4) below:
tt GDPINFL 193227.175812.27 (4)
(11.09) (-5.95)
R2
= 0.6394
The results of the estimated equations indicated that there was a negative relationship between
GDP and inflation in Tanzania. The estimated coefficients are highly statistically significant at 5
percent and negative for both regressions implying that both GDP and Inflation affected each other
negatively. Moreover, equation (4) implied that an increase in GDP by 1 percent resulted in a
decrease of the general price levels by about 1.19. The relationship between the two variables only
15. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4)2013: 363-380
377
existed in the short-run because the Johansen co-integration test revealed that the first significant
values where trace statistics is less than critical value at 5 percent was found at maximum rank of
zero. This could mean that inflation is harmful to economic growth and economic growth helps to
reduce inflation in the country.
CONCLUSION OF THE FINDINGS
The main objective of this study was to examine the impact of inflation on economic growth in
Tanzania. Annual time-series data for the period of 1990-2011 were employed. The diagnostic tests
carried out for all variables were all satisfied, that is, no serial correlation and heteroskedasticity
were observed, implying that the estimates are reliable and therefore can be relied upon.
The methodology employed in this study included the regression analysis to examine the impact,
stationary test was carried out using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller technique and Phillips-Perron
(PP) test. The results of unit root suggested that both variables in the model were stationary after
first difference. The results from regression analysis revealed that inflation has the negative impact
on economic growth of Tanzania. This indicated that inflation is harmful to economic growth of
Tanzania. The same results were found by (Quartey, 2010) in Ghana. Correlation coefficient and
co-integration technique were employed to establish the relationship between inflation and GDP.
The results of co-integration test using Johansen co-integration test showed that over the period of
1990-2011 there was no co-integrating relationship between inflation and economic growth. That
is, no any statistically significant long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth in
Tanzania. Only a negative and statistically significant short term relationship was found. These
results are consistent with other previous studies such as (Ahmed, 2010; Chimobi, 2010; Carneiro
and Faria, 2001). Moreover, the study found that the degree of responsiveness of GDP to changes
in the general price levels is large. The study concluded that the degree of responsiveness of change
in GDP as a result of change in the general price levels is inelastic to the tune of -0.8.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
This study found out that an increase in the general price level (inflation) has been detrimental to
sustainable economic growth in Tanzania. These results have important policy implications for
both domestic policy makers and development partners, implying that controlling inflation is a
necessary condition for promoting economic growth. Thus, policy makers should focus on
maintaining inflation at a low rate (single digit). Stability in inflation rate is an important factor as
the results from the findings indicated that about 64 percent of the variations in GDP have been
explained by inflation. This could imply any fluctuation in country’s general price level has a
significant impact on economic growth. In this regard the study concluded that all factors which
cause an increase in the general price levels such as energy crisis, exchange rates volatility, and
16. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4)2013: 363-380
378
increase in money supply, poor agricultural production and so forth should be addressed with the
appropriate policies so as to foster economic growth.
Since the double-digit inflation rate in Tanzania was mainly due to energy crisis and poor
agricultural produce, the government should use other sources of power such as gas as an
alternative to hydro-electricity. Constant availability of power is of great important for production
since the more the country produces the less the prices of goods and services hence higher
economic growth. Similarly agricultural produce may be increased by improving infrastructure,
provision of labour force, training to farmers as well as strategies like loan provision schemes with
affordable interest rates and establishment of permanent markets for their products should be
undertaken. The elasticity coefficient of GDP to inflation rate is inelastic due to the fact that
inflation rate is a very important macroeconomic variable to the changes of GDP. To policy makers
this could implies that even if there are other factors which influence economic growth such as
inflows and outflow of FDI, human capital, investment, technological progress, financial systems,
geographical position of the country as well as government policies like better maintenance of rule
of law, less non-productive government consumption and better public investment in high-return
avenues (see Hussain, 2011; Kasidi, 2010). Thus to attain and sustain high economic growth (GDP)
policy makers in Tanzania should strive to keep inflation rate at a possible minimum rate.
REFERENCES
Ahmed, S. (2010). An Empirical Study on Inflation and Economic Growth in Bangladesh. OIDA
International Journal of Sustainable Development, Vol. 2, No. 3, pp. 41-48.
Barro, R. (1995). Inflation and economic growth: NBER Working Paper Vol. 53, No. 26, pp. 166-
176.
Barro, R. (1996). Determinants of economic growth: A cross-country empirical study. NBER
Working Paper Vol. 56, No. 98, pp. 22-29.
Bick, A. Kremer, S. and Nautz, D. (2009). Inflation and Growth: New Evidence from a Dynamic
Panel Threshold Analysis. SFB 649 Discussion Paper 036. pp. 33-47.
Carneiro, G. and Faria, R. (2001). Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short-run?
Journal of Applied Economics. Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 89-105.
Chimobi, O. (2010). Inflation and Economic Growth in Nigeria. Journal of Sustainable
Development, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 44-51.
Datta, K. and Kumar, C. (2011). Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth in
Malaysia. International Conference on Economics and Finance Research IPEDR, Vol. 4,
No. 2, pp. 415-16.
Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation,
Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, Vol. 55, No. 2, pp. 251-276.
Ernst, J. Nau, G. J. and Bar-Joseph, Z. (2005). Clustering Short Time Series Gene Expression Data,
Bioinformatics, pp. 1-9.
17. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4)2013: 363-380
379
Espinoza, R., Leon, H. and Prasad, A. (2010). Estimating the Inflation-Growth Nexus-A Smooth
Transition Model, IMF Working Paper. Vol. 10, No. 76, pp. 2-9.
Fischer, S. (1993). The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth. Journal of Monetary
Economics, Vol. 47, No. 5, pp. 485-512.
Frimpong, M. and Oteng-Abayie, F. (2010). When is Inflation harmful? Estimating the Threshold
Effect for Ghana, American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Vol. 2, No.
3, pp. 232-239.
Ghosh, A. and Phillips, S. (1998). Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth, IMF Staff
Papers, Vol. 45, No. 4, pp. 672-710.
Green, H. (2002). 5th
edn. Econometric Analysis. New Jersey: Prentice Hall- Upper Saddle River.
Gujarati, N. and Porter, D. (2009). 3rd
edn. Basic Econometrics. US: The McGraw-Hill.
Gujarati, N. (2004). 4th
edn. Basic Econometrics. New York: The McGraw-Hill.
Hammermann, F. and Flangan, M. (2007). What Explains Persistence Inflation Differentials across
Transition Economies? IMF Working Paper, Vol. 07, No. 189, pp. 4-13.
Hasanov, F. (2010). Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth in Azerbaijani
Economy. Is there any Threshold Effect? Asian Journal of Business and Management
Sciences, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 6-7.
Hjalmarsson, E. and Osterholm, P. (2007). Testing for Co-integration Using the Johansen
Methodology when Variables are Near-Integrated, IMF Working Paper, Vol. 07, No. 141.
pp. 22-27.
Hussain, S. (2011). Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan, International Journal
of Economic and Finance, Vol. 3, No. 5, pp. 262-276.
Kasidi, F. (2010). Estimation of Impact and Elasticity of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic
Growth: A Case of Indian Economy. South Asian Business Review, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 37-38.
Khan, M. and Senhadji, S. (2001). Threshold Effects in the Relationship between Inflation and
Growth, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 48, No. 1, pp. 1-21.
Kilindo, A. (1997). Fiscal operations, Money supply and Inflation in Tanzania. African Economic
Research Consortium, Vol. 65, No. 3, pp. 1-7.
Madhukar, S. and Nagarjuna, B. (2011). Inflation and Growth Rates in India and China: A
Perspective of Transition Economies, International Conference on Economics and Finance
Research, Vol. 4, No. 97 pp. 489-490.
Mallik, G. and Chowdhury, A. (2001). Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Four South
Asian Countries, Asian Pacific Development Journal, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 123-135.
Marbuah, G. (2010). The Inflation-Growth Nexus: Testing for Optimal Inflation for Ghana,
Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 71-72.
Mehari, M. and Wondafrash, A. (2008). The Impact of Money Supply on Inflation in Ethiopia. A
paper presented at 7th
Multidisciplinary Conference in Unity University College, Ethiopia.
Mubarik, A. (2005). Inflation and Growth. An Estimate of the Threshold Level of Inflation in
Pakistan. SBP- Research Bulletin, Vol. 1, No. 1 pp. 35-43.
18. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4)2013: 363-380
380
Mwase, N. (2006). An Empirical Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in
Tanzania, IMF Working Paper /06/150, 4-7.
Ndyeshobola, A. (1983). Inflation and Underdevelopment in a Peripheral Economy: The 1960-80
Tanzanian experience. ISS, The Hague.
Nell, K. (2000). Is Low Inflation a Precondition for Faster Growth, The Case of South Africa,
Department of Economics, University of Kent, United Kingdom.
Odhiambo, N. (2011). Inflation Dynamics and Economic Growth in Tanzania. A Multivariate Time
Series Model, Journal of Applied Business research, Vol. 28, No. 3, pp. 746-47.
Parlow, A. (2010). Introduction to VEC-Models in Stata, UWM Economics Department.
Prasanna, S. and Gopakumar, K. (2010). An Empirical Analysis of Inflation and Economic Growth
in India, International Journal of Sustainable Development, Vol. 15, No. 2 pp. 4-5.
Quartey, P. (2010). Price Stability and the Growth Maximizing rate of inflation for Ghana,
Business and Economic Journal, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 180-194.
Ramanathan, R. (2002). 5th
edn. Introductory Econometrics with Applications. Fort Worth:
Harcourt College Publishers.
Sergii, P. (2009). Inflation and Economic Growth: The Non-Linear relationship. Evidence from
CIS Countries, Kyiv School of Economics, Ukraine.
Shitundu, L. and Luvanda, G. (2000). The Effect of Inflation on Economic Growth in Tanzania,
African Journal of Finance and Management, Vol. 9 No. 1, pp. 70-77.
Ssekuma, R. (2011). A study of Co-integration Models with Applications, University of South
Africa, South Africa.
Stein, P. (2010). The Economics of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, Report
prepared for Swed Fund International AB. 12-32.
Umaru, A. and Zubairu, J. (2012). The Effect of Inflation on the Growth and Development of the
Nigerian Economy: An Empirical Analysis, International Journal of Business and Social
Science, Vol. 3, No. 10, pp. 187-188.
Wei, S. (2006). 2nd
edn. Time Series Analysis: Univariate and Multivariate methods. Boston:
Pearson.
Xiao, J. (2009). The Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth of China: Empirical
Study from 1978-2007, Lund University, Sweden.
Yang, H. (2000). A Note on Causal Relationship between Energy and GDP in Taiwan, Energy
Economics. Vol. 22, No. 3, pp. 309-317.