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25 РОКІВ НЕЗАЛЕЖНОСТІ УКРАЇНИ: Економічні підсумки
Report
by Anatoliy Amelin
Kyiv, 2016
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE:
Economic summary
“If you don't have your own strategy —
you are influenced by others tactics”
Anatoliy Amelin
Head of Economic Programs at Ukrainian Institute For The Future,
former member of National Securities and Stock Market Commission,
Founder of think-tank “Amelin Strategy”
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
This paper aims at summarizing and demonstrating those changes (both economic and
social) which took place in Ukraine within last 25 years – in comparison to other post-soviet
countries.
This summary reflects the path we all have covered, the starting point for setting objec-
tives for the future, and the evaluation of the path we yet have to travel through.
Which goals have been put by Ukraine’s authorities in 1991, or in 2001? Does anyone know? Those
were local goals which originated from the need to solve local, current problems of that time:
coping with inflation, setting our own currency circulation, performing privatization, etc. But the
absence of an overarching goal and a strategic plan has resulted in what we are facing now.
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
During the years of independence Ukraine’s competitive positions in multiple international
rankings has significantly deteriorated. For example, in 1992 Ukraine ranked 54th in human de-
velopment index. In 2015 Ukraine ranks only 82nd. Similar dynamics can be observed also in
terms of other measurements: index of economic freedom, corruption perceptions index, and
global competitiveness index. Due to absence of a clear development strategy Ukraine lags be-
hind its neighbors which were amongst Eastern bloc as well.
Ukraine
Ukraine's posiƟons in many raƟngs worsened
Index of human potenƟal development
Index of economic independence
54 82
1992 2015
95 162
1995 2016
Poland Czech Republic
51 36 38 28
51 39 23 21
Index of corrupƟon percepƟon
Global compeƟƟveness index
Index of Ease of doing business
(Doing Business)
69
1998
130
2015
69
2001
79
2015
124
2005
83
2015
39 31 37 38
41 3141 37
54 25 41 36
Index of world override
(The World Bank)
151 146
1996 2014
60 3842 28
1992 19922015 2015
1995 2016 1995 2016
1996 2014 1996 2014
1998 19982015 2015
2001 20012015 2015
2005 20052015 2015
3
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
In 1991 Ukraine ranked 60th in the world by GDP (PPP) per capita. At that time this indica-
tor reached USD 6.4 thousand, which was average for Central and Eastern Europe. For all the time
till 2015 GDP per capita in Ukraine increased only by 24%, while in Poland, Hungary, Czech Repub-
lic it more than doubled.
During 25 years of independence Ukraine showed one of
the worst dynamics of economic development. Other
emerging market countries had significant progress
Ukraine’s rank on GDP per capita, PPP
$5.740
$6.353
$6.403
$6.757
$6.831
Poland
Mexico
SAR
Uruguay
Brazilia
Average - World
Average – Central Europe
57
58
Ukraine
59
60
61
62
Azerbaijan63
$6.711
$5.585
$6.470
$5.589
$15.359
$21.201
$13.165
$7.916
$17.277
$26.135
$17.740
$15.464
$25.295
+125%
+214%
+96%
+24%
+172%
+355%
+219%
+291%
+177%
1991 year 2015 year
4
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
As the graph shows, Ukraine lagged behind not only Poland but also Belarus which had
worse preconditions and resources for development.
Place of Ukraine in world economy: significant decline
during 25 years.
GDP per capita, all countries.
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
101
106
111
116
121
126
131
136
141
146
151
156
161
166
171
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
110 000
120 000
130 000
140 000
150 000
160 000
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
101
106
111
116
121
126
131
136
141
146
151
156
161
166
171
Ukraine
$6.403
1991 year
2015 year
Ukraine
$7.916
Ukraine
Ukraine
Poland
Poland
Belarus
Belarus
5
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
If we compare former Soviet republics, by the level of GDP per capita Ukraine is as of
today in the same group with Moldova and countries of Central Asia. Among former Soviet re-
publics, average monthly wage in USD equivalent is lower than in Ukraine only in Tajikistan.
GPD per capita, PPP
Ukraine is behind many countries of former Soviet Union
on GPD per capita
0,0
5 000,0
10 000,0
15 000,0
20 000,0
25 000,0
30 000,0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
USD
Ukraine
Russia
Belarus
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Moldova
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Countries, with
hydrocarbons extracƟon
economies
Belarus was behind Ukraine in 90’s, but
starƟng from 1996 took a place of stable
economic growth
Ukraine is now in the same group
together with Moldova, Tajikistan and
Kyrgystan
6
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Dynamic of average wage level, USD
Among former USSR republics, average wage level in
Ukraine outperforms only Tajikistan
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
USD
Ukraine
Russia
Belarus
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Moldova
Estonia
Level of salary in Ukraine is higher only than
those in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan
7
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Lack of efficient economic reforms led to a severer decrease of purchasing power of
Ukrainians comparing to other former Soviet republics’ citizens. In 2015 average monthly salary
in Ukraine allows to purchase 2 times less beef compared to that of 1991 – 56 kg instead of 118
kg. In Russia this figure decreased only 1.5 times, and in Belarus, by contrast, it grew by 4 per cent.
Average monthly salary, USD
Purchasing power of Ukrainians decreased more
significantly than that of other former Soviet republic
Weight of beef can be purchased on average
monthly salary, kg
0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 1 000,0 1 200,0 1 400,0
Ukraine
0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0
Ukraine
2 кв. 2015
1990
Belarus
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Moldova
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Russia
Belarus
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Moldova
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Russia
8
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Economic difficulties forced Ukrainians to travel abroad in search of a higher income. The
share of workers’ remittances in GDP of Ukraine increased from 0.01 per cent in 1996 to 6.61 per
cent in 2015. Latvia, Poland and Hungary went through the same path. But Poland, having man-
aged to improve the economic situation, broke the negative trend: as according to 2015 results,
contribution of Polish migrant workers to GDP is 1.5 per cent, whereas in 2006 this figure was
2.5 per cent.
Share of remittances from abroad, GPD
The share of workers remiƩances in GPD of Ukraine
increased significantly
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
7,0%
8,0%
9,0%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Belarus
Ukrainians are forced to travel abroad in
search of a higher income..
Latvia, Poland and Hungary went through
the same path.
But Poland having managed to improve the
economic situaƟon broke the negaƟve
trend.
Czech Republic
Russian FederaƟon
9
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
The population of Ukraine decreased significantly - by 13.1 per cent compared with 1991.
Ukraine follows same path as Latvia did, where the population decreased by 25.4 per cent. If
Ukraine does not manage to improve the welfare of citizens, further reduction of population due
to migration will take place. Depopulation may become a significant issue.
Population change(1991 year is taken as a basis )
The populaƟon of Ukraine decreased significantly
70,0%
75,0%
80,0%
85,0%
90,0%
95,0%
100,0%
105,0%
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Belarus
Ukraine follows the same path as Latvia.
If Ukraine does not manage to improve the welfare of
ciƟzens, further reducƟon of populaƟon due to migraƟon
will take place.
DepopulaƟon may become a significant issue.
Czech Republic
Russian FederaƟon
10
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Domestic savings rate is extremely low in Ukraine compared to its neighbors - only 13.3
per cent of GDP, while in Poland - 23.3 per cent, Czech Republic - 33.1 per cent, in Belarus - 31.0
per cent. Due to high level of risks Ukrainians are unwilling to invest in banking system or busi-
ness development.
Level of savings is very low in Ukraine compared
to its neighbors.
Share of national savings in GPD
Source: World Bank
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
%
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Belarus
Since 2005 level of naƟonal savings has been gradually
decreasing. Increase of this indicator during 2014-2015 is
derived from GPD decrease while the level of savings
remained the same.
Due to a high level of risks Ukrainians are unwilling to
invest money into the banking system or business
development.
Czech Republic
Russian FederaƟon
11
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Lifetime of Ukrainians is less than in those countries which have become part of the EU.
In Ukraine, the average life expectancy at birth is 71 years, in Latvia - 74 years, in Estonia -
77 years. One reason for the relatively low life expectancy in Ukraine is a low level of social ac-
tivity of older people due to poverty.
Average lifeƟme expectancy at birth
LifeƟme expectancy of Ukrainians slightly grew but much
slower than in other countries of the former USSR
62,0
64,0
66,0
68,0
70,0
72,0
74,0
76,0
78,0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
років
Ukraine
Russia
Belarus
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
Latvia
Estonia
LifeƟme of Ukrainians is less than in those countries
which have become part of the EU. In Ukraine the
average lifeƟme expectancy at birth is 71 years, in Latvia –
74 years, in Estonia – 77 years. One reason for the
relaƟvely low lifeƟme expectancy in Ukraine is a low level
of social a Ɵ i d h
12
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Ukraine is one of the countries with most disappointed and unhappy people. In the index
of happiness it is ranked 123rd in the world, while the Czech Republic is 27th, Poland - 57th,
Latvia – 68th. Main reasons for this situation in Ukraine are limited degree of freedom in mak-
ing important decisions in life, low income, and prevalence of corruption.
World Happiness Report
Ukraine is one of the countries with the most disappointed
and unhappy people.
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
2005-2007 2010-2012 2012-2014 2013-2015
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Russia
Belarus
Happiness index includes such indicators as citizen’s welfare (GPD per capita), level of social support of the society, hea
Czech Republic
13
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Information below dwells upon other reasons explaining why Ukraine is lagging on many
indicators comparing to neighboring countries and countries of the former USSR.
Lack of sufficient investment in technological sectors has led to increased connection
between real GDP growth and Commodity Price Index. Those countries which are more suc-
cessful, in particular Poland and Belarus, do not have any substantial dependence on row cycle
time. At the same time Ukraine is susceptible to downturns, which is provoked by the volatility
in the markets of raw materials.
Comparison of GPD growth with Commodity Price Index
-100,0%
-50,0%
0,0%
50,0%
100,0%
150,0%
200,0%
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
RealGDPgrowthrate
-40,0%
-20,0%
0,0%
20,0%
40,0%
60,0%
80,0%
100,0%
120,0%
140,0%
160,0%
CommodityPriceIndex
Poland
Hungary
Ukraine
Russia
Belarus
Commodity
Price Index
2007
2009999
20111
2013
20111015
ConnecƟon between real GPD growth and
Commodity Price index in Ukraine
increased starƟng from 2006.
Those countries which are more
successful, in parƟcular Poland and
Belarus, do not have any substanƟal
dependence on row cycle Ɵme.
At the same Ɵme Ukraine is suscepƟble to
downturns, which is provoked by the
volaƟlity in the markets of the raw
materials.
14
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Predominantly commodity-driven production has led to relatively slow growth of Ukrain-
ian export, it tripled compared to 1994, while in the Czech Republic it increased by 8 times, in
Poland - 10 times, in Belarus - 12 times. As a result, Ukraine significantly lagged behind these
countries in terms of economic development.
Export is an important factor through which developing countries are able to increase
their wealth. By exporting goods we import middle class which eventually becomes the driving
force of the internal market development.
Ukraine lost in global competition in goods markets and also in the competition for the
investors in the investment market. The first is a consequence of the second.
Export dynamics (1994 as basis)
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
20,0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
%
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Russia
Belarus
Membership at WTO
Growth of export is considered to be an
important factor of economic growth of
developing countries.
Ukrainian export increased slower than
that of most neighboring countries.
As a result, Ukraine has significantly
lagged behind in terms of level of
economic development.
Global financial
crisis
Початок АТО
Ukrainian export increase rate is lower than in other
countries of the world. Becoming a member of WTO
hasn't brought Ukraine benefits
World average
Czech Republic
15
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
The main reason associated with growth of Polish export is attracting of the significant
amount of foreign investment, which allowed upgrading of the industrial production base.
In the early 90`s the Law on Foreign Investment was accepted, which abolished restric-
tions on foreign citizens’ share in companies’ equity, and provided tax allowances for foreign in-
vestors (in areas with high unemployment tax perks were higher). In 1995-2001, 15 free trade
zones were established in Poland, 14 of which still work. As of 2015, USD 34 billion of investments
(by the average rate for the years 1995-2015) was attracted in free economic zones. Over the past
20 years 2700 investment permissions were issued and 300 thousand people found a job.
Joining the EU was another impetus for the development of Polish export. Since the be-
ginning of membership in the EU (2004) Poland received more than EUR 100 billion aid through
various programs aimed at improving living standards and competitiveness of the Polish econ-
omy.
While joining the EU, Polish government has managed to receive subsidies to encourage
agricultural development. Specifically, during the first year of EU membership EUR 1.5 billion sub-
sidy was allocated into the agricultural sector, and in 2013 – EUR 5.2 billion of subsidies. Inside
the EU budget for the years 2012-2020, EUR 31.2 billion (about 4.5 billion annually) is factored for
the support of Polish agriculture. As a result of such support from the EU, foodstuff became
one of the key items of Polish exports.
16
Briefcase.
Polish export.
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Due to insufficient investment, Ukrainian goods turned out to be uncompetitive.
Production of gasoline decreased by 41.3 per cent comparing to that of 1991. Currently,
gasoline is imported from Belarus and Lithuania. Production of textiles decreased almost
by 92 per cent. Currently textiles and textile products are imported from China and Turkey.
Production of cars went down by 96 per cent. One of the main countries of cars import
is Slovakia, where almost 4 per cent of population works in automotive and relating
industry.
Decrease of manufacturing of some goods(2015, compared to 1991)
-53.6%
-21.2%
-41.3%
-13.6%
-63.1%
-95.7%
-91.8%
-100.0%
-90.0%
-80.0%
-70.0%
-60.0%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
Crude oil and
gas-condensate
production
Natural gas
production
GasolineChemical
fertilizers
Rolled ferrous
metal products
CarsTextiles
Ukrainian goods turned out to be uncompeƟƟve.
Currently texƟles and texƟle products are imported
from China and Turkey, which is a main item of
export of these countries.
Chemical ferƟlizers are imported from countries of
Customs Unit.
Car industry is a backbone of the economy of
Slovakia.
Ukraine lost in global compeƟƟon for goods markets, and
domesƟc manufacturers were replaced by imported goods
17
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Belarus was able to modernize its refineries due to investments. During 2005-2015, 29
nvestment projects worth USD 1.3 billion were implemented in the country’s refineries. Nowadays
Belarusian fuel Euro-4 and Euro-5 is exported to EU countries. Export of light oil products
constitutes 30 per cent of total country’s exports.
Complexity index indicating Belarusian refineries’ capability (known as Nelson complexity
index) exceeds the European average. Despite the achieved position in the market, development
does not stop. JSC “Mozyr Oil Refinery” is investing USD 1.4 bn. in the project aimed at increasing
the depth of oil refining from 78 to 89 per cent.
The Belarusian State Concern for Oil and Chemistry (Belneftekhim Concern) created an
nnovation fund which provides funding for innovative projects, R&D, and production of new or
improved products. Selection of projects is carried out through the open competition process.
During 2015, USD 2.1 million was invested.
The National Bank of Ukraine policy hasn’t contributed to the development of exports
neither, which was aimed at keeping the exchange rate of the hryvnia against foreign curren-
cies fixed (and unreasonably high) by the usage of restrictions on exporters, and usage of
foreign exchange reserves.
18
Briefcase.
Crude oil refining in Belarus.
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
National manufacturers are not very active in improving quality management. In Ukraine,
there are 3 ISO 9001 per USD 1 bn. Of GDP, whereas in Moldova - 7, in Poland - 12, Latvia - 20.
As a result, export opportunities for Ukrainian businesses are not as favorable as for those of
the neighboring countries.
Quantity of ISO 9001 certificates per $1billion GPD in 2014
QuanƟty of ISO cerƟficates is ten Ɵmes higher in
those countries which occupy a significant share of
export markets, compared to Ukraine.
Ukraine significantly lags behind even Moldova.
Poland
Latvia
Slovakia
Israel
Czech Republic4
6
Ukraine
8
71
18
38
Hungary10
41,88
32,56
30,05
28,04
20,70
10,01
3,53
Italy1 79,12
Moldova50 6,92
19
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Ukraine is getting behind in terms of products competitiveness and is losing foreign mar-
kets. Out of CIS countries only Turkmenistan is ahead of Ukraine in terms of electricity con-
sumption. Energy efficiency of the western neighbors of our country (Poland, Czech Republic, and
Hungary) is twice higher compared to that of Ukraine. Reduction of energy consumption in
Ukraine is observed since 1997, but the extent of this process is not sufficient to reach the level
of the EU countries.
Energy efficiency (use of energy as 1 kg of oil equivalent per USD 1000 of GDP )
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Belarus
Hungary
Kazakhstan
Moldova
Poland
Turkmenistan
Ukraine
Trend is posiƟve, but Ukraine is
significantly behind its
compeƟtors in terms of energy
efficiency
Out of CIS countries only
Turkmenistan is ahead of
Ukraine in terms of electricity
consumpƟon.
1kgofoilequivalentperUSD1000ofGDP
Russian FederaƟon
Czech Republic
20
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Since 2005 Ukraine's net export is negative due to substantial import (including energy
resources) and instability in exports. It leads to depreciation of the national currency and
decrease of economic development indicators in dollar equivalent, supported by volatility
in commodity prices. Therefore crisis effects of the global economy are difficult to endure
for Ukraine.
Share of net export of goods and services in GDP
-25,0%
-20,0%
-15,0%
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Belarus
.
Since 2005 Ukraine net export is negaƟve due to
substanƟal import (including energy resources) and
instability in exports. It leads to depreciaƟon of the
naƟonal currency and decrease of economic
development indicators in dollar equivalent,
supported by volaƟlity in commodity prices.
Therefore crisis effects of the global economy are
difficult to endure for Ukraine.
Russian federaƟon
Czech republic
21
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Export structure characterizes Ukraine’s role in the global environment as a supplier of
agricultural products. The share of agricultural products in Ukrainian exports increased almost
4 times during last 14 years.
Commodity composition of the Ukrainian export
Structure of export places Ukraine posiƟon in the global
world as a provider of agriculture products
2015 р.
31%
8%
7%25%
13%
14%
2%
Agriculture
Mining industry
Chemical industry
Iron and steel industry
Engineering industry
Consumer goods
manufacturing
Other
2001 р.
8%
11%
11%
42%
14%
4%
10%
The share of agricultural products in
Ukrainian exports increased almost 4
Ɵmes during last 14 years.
22
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Ukraine transforms from being industrial country into an agricultural one, while other
countries are aimed at developing other sectors of economy. Thus, the share of agriculture in
gross value added in Ukraine in 2015 amounted to 14 per cent, while in Belarus - 7.8, Poland - 2.8,
Czech Republic - 2.4 per cent.
Share of agriculture in gross value added
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
16,0%
18,0%
20,0%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Poland
Ukraine
Belarus
Ukraine transforms from being
industrial country into an agricultural
one, while other countries are aimed at
developing other sectors of economy.
Russian FederaƟon
Czech Republic
23
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
The share of employment in agriculture is higher in Ukraine comparing to the neighbor-
ing countries. At the same time wages in the Ukrainian agricultural sector are at around 30 per
cent below average.
Labor efficiency in the Ukrainian agriculture remains low. Thus, in Ukraine one agricul-
tural sector employee accounts for USD 6.3 thousand in value added, while in Russia – USD 11.6
thousand, in the Czech Republic – USD 12.4 thousand, in Belarus – USD 15.8 thousand. Labor effi-
ciency in the Ukrainian agricultural sector increases slowly, indicating that the development
mainly relies on extensive factors instead of intensification of production. Without investment
in agricultural sector and intensification of agricultural production we are going to lose the com-
petition even here.
Share of employment in agriculture
0
5
10
15
20
25
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
%
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
The share of employment in agriculture is
higher in Ukraine comparing to the
neighboring countries. At the same Ɵme
wages in the Ukrainian agricultural sector are
at around 30 per cent below average.
Russia
Czech Republic
24
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Czech Republic is among leaders in labor efficiency in agriculture and is almost twice
ahead of Ukraine.
Main success factor of farmers from the Czech Republic is that of active support meas-
ures towards agricultural sector from the state.
he implementation of government agricultural support policy is conducted by the State
Agricultural Intervention Fund, which performs the following tasks:
iinntteerrvveennttiioonn ppuurrcchhaasseess ooff aaggrriiccuullttuurraall pprroodduuccttss,, aaiimmeedd aatt ccoouunntteerriinngg ppoossssiibbllee ddoowwnnttuurrnnss iinn mmaarrkkeett pprriicceess;;
eexxppoorrtt ssuubbssiiddyy,, ii..ee.. ssuubbssiiddyy ssuuppppoorrtt ttoo pprroodduucceerrss ooff aaggrriiccuullttuurraall pprroodduuccttss ffoorr eexxppoorrtt;;
ssuuppppoorrtt ooff tthhee lleeaasstt ddeevveellooppeedd rreeggiioonnss;;
ssuuppppoorrtt ffoorr tthhee ccuullttiivvaattiioonn ooff eenneerrggyy ccrrooppss,, aanndd eennvviirroonnmmeennttaallllyy ffrriieennddllyy aaggrriiccuullttuurraall pprroodduuccttiioonn..
The Fund’s budget is filled from the following sources: state budget, revenue from sales
of interventional products, subsidies from EU funds, loans, received penalties, and other.
Programs implemented:
““RRuurraall DDeevveellooppmmeenntt PPrrooggrraamm ffoorr 22000077--22001133””,, wwiitthh tthhee aaiimm ttoo iinnccrreeaassee tthhee ccoommppeettiittiivveenneessss ooff ggooooddss aanndd sseerrvv--
iicceess pprroodduucceedd iinn rruurraall aarreeaass,, aanndd iimmpprroovviinngg llaabboorr eeffffiicciieennccyy iinn aaggrriiccuullttuurree;;
iinnvveessttmmeenntt pprrooggrraamm ““FFaarrmmeerr””,, wwiitthh tthhee aaiimm ttoo hheellpp aaggrriibbuussiinneessss iinn ppuurrcchhaassiinngg ooff eennggiinneeeerriinngg eeqquuiippmmeenntt;;
iinnvveessttmmeenntt pprrooggrraamm ““EEaarrtthh”” wwhhiicchh pprroommootteess tthhee aaccqquuiissiittiioonn ooff llaanndd iinn oorrddeerr ttoo ffuurrtthheerr iimmpplleemmeenntt aaggrriiccuullttuurraall
pprroodduuccttiioonn..
“Program for Rural Development 2014-2020” is currently implemented. The program pro-
vides support for innovation in agricultural sector, strengthening competitiveness of agricul-
tural companies, and other.
Subsidy support of the Czech agricultural exporters is held within the EU Agricultural
Policy. Support for the Czech Republic is carried out in only a few areas of livestock: beef, veal,
eggs, and some kinds of pork. Support for exports of cereals, rice, sugar, and milk is canceled.
We must look at things realistically. Negative aspect of government subsidies may be an
increased dependence of producers from the state. On the other hand, government support
in the Czech Republic has led to a gradual increase in labor efficiency in agribusiness, and to the
improved financial performance of local agricultural companies.
Thus, 2015 was the most successful year for the Czech farmers, whose net profit reached
a record level of CZK 22.9 billion (EUR 0.9 bn.). Also, after years of decline, production of meat
finally increased.
25
Briefcase.
Agricultural sector in the Czech Republic.
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Labor efficiency in Ukrainian industry is also significantly lower than in neighboring coun-
tries. Ukrainian industry produces mainly raw products with low added value, and this does not
allow building a society with high living standards.
Added value per 1 employee
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Ukrainian industry produces mainly raw
products with low added value
USDthousand,percapitaperannum
Czech Republic
26
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
At the same time there is a significant dependence on imported products of mining
industries, including energy. Import of products of mining industry was 32 per cent of total im-
ports in 2015.
Composition of Ukrainian import
2001р.
3%
44%
12%
5%
21%
4%
11%
2015р.
5%
20%
5%
23%
4%
11%
32%
Agricultural industry
Mining industry
Chemical industry
Ironandsteelindustry
Engineeringindustry
Other
Consumer goods manufacturing
27
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Dynamics of gas import and consumption in Ukraine
78%
83%
77%
71%
83%
78%
81%
77%
84%
79%
52%
64%
81%
60%
56%
79%
49%
78%
79%
77%
75%
81%
81%
77%
46%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
Ukraine was forced to import about 80 per cent of
its need of natural gas, despite the great potenƟal
of domesƟc producƟon. Dependence on gas supply
was created arƟficially as a tool to influence the
economy of our country by the main supplier.
71%
MAX - myllyard cubic meters (1975)
ConsumpƟon, myllyard
cubic meters
Share of import, %
For a long time, Ukraine was forced to import about 80 per cent of its need of natural gas,
despite the great potential of domestic production. Every year by 2013 Ukraine spent more than
USD 10 bln. on import of gas from Russia. These funds directly supported Russian economy and
reduced Ukrainian investment resources. Dependence on gas supply was created artificially as
a tool to influence the economy of our country by the main supplier.
In particular, artificial barriers for private players in terms of market access were created.
Even multinational giants which are leaders on technology and have unlimited investment
potential had no access on market. Non-transparent procedure for obtaining special permits,
difficulties with the use of infrastructure, lack of mechanisms to protect investors from power
structures still scare away investors from the oil and gas sector.
28
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Ukraine is third in Europe in terms of proven reserves of natural gas, and as of today
Ukraine does not use its own energy potential in full.
European countries by the level of proven
natural gas reserves, 2015, trillion cubic meters
Great Britain
Other European
countries
Netherlands
Ukraine
Romania
0,7
0,6
0,2
0,1
0,3
Norway 1,9
European countries by the level of
production of natural gas reserves, 2015,
trillion cubic meters
Great Britain
Other European
countries
Netherlands
Ukraine
Romania
43,0
19,9
39,7
10,3
28,4
Norway 117,2
Ukraine is third in Europe in terms of proven reserves
of natural gas.
Ukraine does not use its own energy potenƟal, as
other European countries do, such as Great Britain
and Romania
Ukraine has every opportunity for energy
independence. To achieve this, it is needed to:
- aƩract investments in the sector;
- introduce modern exploraƟon techniques;
- improve legislaƟon.
29
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Romania’s experience of gas production could be useful for Ukraine. Romanians trans-
ferred the development of oil and gas from land to the Black Sea Shelf. In 2004, 51 per cent
of the Romanian state oil company Petrom was sold to Austrian OMV for USD 700 million.
The arrival of large foreign company strengthened exploration activities.
In 2007, ExxonMobil Corporation was involved for the study of a promising Neptun Block.
Reserves amounted to 80 billion cubic meters of gas. But before that, ExxonMobil attempted to
get the right to explore and develop Prykerchensky Block, which was given an unknown Vanco
Prikerchenskaya company instead of a global giant. So instead of Ukraine investments were
given to Romania. We also remember that sensitive issue on the fact that 40 per cent of gas re-
serves of Neptun was situated on the shelf of Zmiyinyi island, which was successfully taken away
in court by Romania. It is quite possible that the interests of giant business of ExxonMobil played
a key role in that.
In 2012, a consortium of ExxonMobil and Petrom discovered a new gas source Domino-1.
Reserves of the source are estimated at 80 billion cubic meters. Potential production volumes
only in this field are equal to 6-7 bn. cubic meters of gas per annum. The beginning of industrial
exploitation is planned for 2020. The need for investment is USD 1 billion.
During 2008-2015 about EUR 1.5 bn. was invested in exploration on the Romanian Black
Sea shelf.
Currently, gas production in Romania since 2008 is at 10-11 bn. cubic meters. Reduction in
gas consumption led to the plan to refuse from Russian gas import since 2016. Although in 2008
the share of imported gas was 25 per cent of the total volume of consumption.
According to the Wood Mackenzie opinion, new discoveries in Romania will radically change
supply of energy situation in Europe. Romania has all prerequisites to become an exporter of gas.
Romania continues to pursue an active policy of attracting investment in the oil and gas sector
to increase the level of inventories. So the question is: who will be able to win the competition
for investors? A EU country with rental rate from 3.5 to 13.5 per cent (there is also a tax on extra
profits in Romania), or Ukraine, with its risks and rental rates for gas production at 14-29 per cent?
30
Briefcase.
Energy independence of Romania.
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Insufficient investment leads to lower economic growth in Ukraine. Without investments
Ukraine will not be able to achieve economic success and build a successful country.
Nominal GDP growth rate (1991 as basis)
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Poland
Hungary
Ukraine
Belarus
Investment in fixed assets renewal growth rate (1991 as basis)
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Poland
Hungary
Ukraine
Belarus
Significant connecƟon between nominal GDP
growth and investment increase is observed.
Without aƩracƟng investments Ukraine will
not be able to achieve economic success.
Russian FederaƟon
Russian FederaƟon
Czech Republic
Czech Republic
31
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
The deficit of investment resources primarily has a negative impact on R&D. Low invest-
ment in R&D led to low innovative capacity of Ukrainian enterprises, and as a result – to low
value-added production.
R&D investment as per cent of GDP
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
5,00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Belarus
China
Hungary
Israel
Poland
Ukraine
StarƟng from 2006, a downturn of
research acƟvity is observed in Ukraine.
Low level of investment in R&D causes
week innovaƟon acƟvity of Ukrainian
enterprises
Russian FederaƟon
Czech Republic
32
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Israel is an example of a successful innovation policy; in 1993 the State Fund “Yozma” was
founded there. USD 80 million of the fund was invested in venture capital funds established
in partnership with business, and USD 20 million was invested directly in start-up projects through
its subsidiary “Yozma 1”.
During first 3 years of operation, the fund “Yozma 1” invested in at least 15 projects, and
since 1997 the fund began to leave the startups’ business capital. In particular, in 1997 “Yozma”
sold its stake in Bioscience to Johnson & Johnson Corporation for an amount 31 times higher
than the initial investment. And thanks to the IPO of e-SIM “Yozma” received income which was
29 times higher than investment.
As a result of state fund “Yozma” operation, business incubators and centers of commer-
cialization of developments at higher education institutions developed rapidly. The volume of
foreign direct investment in Israel increased from USD 345.6 million in 1991 to USD 11.5 billion
in 2015. Share of high-tech exports increased from 11.3 per cent in 1991 to 16.0 per cent in 2014.
33
Briefcase.
State investment fund in Israel.
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
In the ranking of innovation, in 2016 Ukraine ranked 56th in the world, while Moldova ranked
46th, Poland – 39th, Latvia – 34th. Only 26.5 per cent of industrial products in Ukraine are high-
tech, while in Slovakia - 57.9 per cent, in Hungary - 56.1, and in the Czech Republic - 43.2 per cent.
Ranking of innovative economies as
according to Global Innovation Index 2016,
score
Moldova
Poland
Czech Republic
Israel
Switzerland1
21
Ukraine
27
56
39
46
Latvia34
66,28
52,28
49,40
44,33
40,22
38,39
35,72
RF43 38,50
Ranking of R&D organizations and business
entities cooperation as according to Global
Innovation Index 2016, score
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Israel
Finland1
7
Ukraine
35
72
61
71
Czech Republic41
82,80
75,08
54,56
50,00
44,55
41,73
41,71
RF65 43,87
34
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
According to BBlloooommbbeerrgg IInnnnoovvaattiioonn IInnddeexx, Switzerland ranks first in the world for innova-
tion in industrial production. The largest share of industrial production in Switzerland belongs to
pharmaceutical industry (21 per cent). It is believed that pharmaceutical industry may become
the driver of Ukraine’s economic development. Investment in R&D, promotion of our products
abroad will reduce dependence on import, increase export of high added value products, and cre-
ate jobs that require highly skilled personnel.
Share of high-tech and medium-high-tech
in industrial production, %
Share of employment in high-tech services,
%
Belarus
Poland
Slovenia
Hungary
Slovakia3
6
Ukraine
9
45
34
37
Czech Republic17
57,93%
56,18%
47,97%
43,24%
33,13%
31,35%
26,49%
Belarus
Poland
Latvia
RF
Israel7
14
Ukraine
24
39
30
33
Czech Republic28
47,68%
44,22%
39,59%
37,85%
36,78%
35,88%
33,74%
Singapore1 69,25% Luxemburg1 62,30%
35
Briefcase.
Switzerland – pharmaceuticals.
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Expensive credits reduce investment opportunities and business development. In 2015
average credit rate in Ukraine was 21.8 per cent, while in Moldova - 14.1, in Georgia - 12.5,
Belarus - 4.3 per cent. Historically, the lowest lending rates in Ukraine correspond roughly
to highest rates in Russia.
Average credit rates
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
45,0
50,0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
%
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Poland
Latvia
Moldova
Georgia
Armenia
Ukraine
Historically, the lowest lending rates in
Ukraine correspond roughly to highest rates
in Russia.
Russian FederaƟon
Czech Republic
36
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Ukraine’s external debt reached record level: in 2015 gross external debt amounted to
131.9 per cent of GDP, and foreign debt – to 38.1 per cent of GDP. Credit funds attracted by state
were mainly used to cover budget deficit. Spending loans for consumption complicates the gen-
eration of funds for their repay. Since 2008 Ukraine is in condition very close to national bank-
ruptcy, and this negatively affects our investment attractiveness.
Since 2008 Ukraine is close to default. There is a lack of foreign currency to pay foreign
debts. Market of borrowing is closed for domestic companies, and a significant devaluation took
place. Basically for about 8 years we have been tolerating the consequences of default, but the
default was not announced and we are left with exorbitant debt and dependence on foreign
donors.
External debt/GDP ratio
0,0%
20,0%
40,0%
60,0%
80,0%
100,0%
120,0%
140,0%
160,0%
180,0%
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Gross external debt
Credit funds aƩracted by state were mainly
used to cover budget deficit. Spending loans
for consumpƟon complicates the generaƟon
of funds for their repay. Since 2008 Ukraine is
in condiƟon very close to naƟonal
bankruptcy, and this negaƟvely affects our
investment aƩracƟveness.
Foreign naƟonal and
state-guaranteed debt
37
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Investing in Ukraine is traditionally considered as of high risk. Ukraine is uncompetitive
in terms of attracting investments as compared to other countries. Based on the level of
sovereignty risk, the Czech Republic is 14 times more attractive than Ukraine.
Premium for sovereign risk
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
16,0%
18,0%
20,0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Poland
Latvia
Moldova
Georgia
Armenia
Ukraine
Turkmenistan
Based on the level of
sovereign risk, the Czech
Republic is 14 Ɵmes
more aƩracƟve than
Ukraine.
Ukraine is uncompeƟƟve
in terms of aƩracƟng
investments as compared to
other countries.
Russian FederaƟon
Czech Republic
Investment in Ukraine is tradiƟonally considered
as high-risk.
38
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Ukraine failed to build a full-fledged market economy of a Western type. Since 2005,
Ukraine was unable to raise the level of economic freedom, which should increase investment
attractiveness. Change of authorities at the highest state level over the 10 years did not bring
any change.
Economic Freedom Index
35,0
40,0
45,0
50,0
55,0
60,0
65,0
70,0
75,0
80,0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Poland
Hungary
Latvia
Ukraine
Belarus
Presidents of Ukraine:
L. Kuchma V.Yushchenko V.Yanukovych P. Poroshenko
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Since 2005, Ukraine was unable to raise the level of economic freedom,
which should increase investment aƩracƟveness.
Change of authoriƟes at the highest state level over the 10 years did
not bring any change.
Russian Federation
Czech Republic
39
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Due to the lack of reform the level of corruption in Ukraine remains unchanged for many
years. According to the Corruption Perception Index, Ukraine significantly lags behind Poland,
the Czech Republic, Latvia, and Hungary. More than half of Ukrainian enterprises face cases
of corruption.
Corruption Perceptions Index
Presidents of Ukraine: L. Kuchma V.Yushchenko V.Yanukovych P.Poroshenko
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Belarus
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
No progress in terms of fighƟng corrupƟon is observed, which
has a negaƟve impact not only over the economy but also on the
feeling of happiness of Ukrainians
Czech Republic
Russian FederaƟon
40
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
According to local media, in the Czech Republic those businesses which operate in good
faith are likely to face a tax audit once in 150 years (according to TTeerrrriinnvveesstt).
Share of companies which at least once were demanded to pay a bribe
Poland
Hungary
Czech
republic
Latvia
RF
Ukraine
1,8%
2,1%
3,5%
3,5%
14,2%
Belarus 8,9%
50,4%
41
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Constantly changing rules and policies discourage business investment in Ukraine
and make it impossible to develop and implement an economic development strategy.
Quality of regulatory policy is traditionally low.
Regulative Policy Quality Index
-2,50
-2,00
-1,50
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Belarus
-2,50
-2,00
-1,50
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
4
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Belarus
V. Yuschenko V. YanukovychL. Kuchma
L.Kuchma
Presidents of Ukraine:
Presidents of Ukraine:
Index of political stable
V. Yuschenko V. Yanukovych P. Poroshenko
4
P.Poroshenko
Constantly changing regulaƟons and
policies discourage business investment
in Ukraine and make it impossible to
develop and implement an economic
development strategy.
Russian FederaƟon
Russian FederaƟon
Czech Republic
Czech Republic
42
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Average term of prime minister’s work in Ukraine is around 1 year. In such conditions state
officials cannot fully take care of the welfare of citizens and development of the national
economy in the long run.
Amount of prime-ministers during 1991-2016
16
12
15 15
24
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Poland Czech
Republic
Latvia Russian
Federation
Ukraine Belarus
Average term of prime minister's work
in Ukraine is around 1 yea.
43
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
At enterprise level, frequent changes of management leads to confusion in management
policy, reduction of operational effectiveness and as consequence – in a decline of capitaliza-
tion and bankruptcy. Same happens at the state level: countries without their own development
strategy lose their capitalization and go bankrupt. We have calculated simulated capitalization
of the imaginary company “State of Ukraine”. According to a graph, today Ukraine with its level
of capitalization stays at the level of years 1999-2000. Inefficient public management and lack
of strategy does not allow the country to move forward and increase its own value in the eyes
of potential investors. In order to make effective changes the country needs to rethink its
future path of development and change approaches to public policy.
Conditional rate of capitalization of imaginary company named“State “Ukraine”*
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
USDbillion
Minimum
level since
1991
44
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
HHooww II sseeee UUkkrraaiinnee iinn 1100 yyeeaarrss??
Prosperous, self-sufficient, independent in economic decision-making, attractive to in
vestors, loved by its citizens, a key subject of geopolitical decision-making in the region,
the center of innovation in Eastern Europe, tourist center, a new briefcase to follow in
terms of progress in economic and social policy.
WWhhaatt sshhoouulldd bbee ddoonnee ttoo aacchhiieevvee tthhiiss::
1. Establishment of clear regulations and their enforcement (tax reform, judicial reform,
reform of the prosecution).
2. Development of a comprehensive economic strategy and the establishment
of national management KPI based on this strategy (strategy is a job for sector reforms).
3. Creation of conditions for easy access of investments (‘cheap money’ policy, pension
reform, working financial market, and conditions for the re-activation of savings and
their return in the financial sector).
4. Attraction of foreign investment, including large multinational companies that could
place production facilities in Ukraine. In particular, this applies to Asian companies that
may consider Ukraine as a springboard for access to European markets. Such tools can
be used: state guarantees, tax incentives, public-private partnerships.
5. Support of export (development of international relations)
6. Ensuring energy independence by attracting investments in oil and gas industry.
7. Investment in energy efficiency and in innovation, as well as in venture projects.
8. Stimulation of entrepreneurship.
45
Український інститут майбутнього
Вул. Олеся Гончара, 65 (6-й поверх), м. Київ
Ukrainian Institute for the Future
Olesia Honchara str., 65 (6th floor), Kyiv
+38 044 537 17 78
uifuture@gmail.com
www.uifuture.org
www.facebook.com/UkrainianIF/
www.twitter.com/FutureUkr

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Report 25 years_amelim-en (1)

  • 1. 25 РОКІВ НЕЗАЛЕЖНОСТІ УКРАЇНИ: Економічні підсумки Report by Anatoliy Amelin Kyiv, 2016 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary “If you don't have your own strategy — you are influenced by others tactics”
  • 2. Anatoliy Amelin Head of Economic Programs at Ukrainian Institute For The Future, former member of National Securities and Stock Market Commission, Founder of think-tank “Amelin Strategy” 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary This paper aims at summarizing and demonstrating those changes (both economic and social) which took place in Ukraine within last 25 years – in comparison to other post-soviet countries. This summary reflects the path we all have covered, the starting point for setting objec- tives for the future, and the evaluation of the path we yet have to travel through. Which goals have been put by Ukraine’s authorities in 1991, or in 2001? Does anyone know? Those were local goals which originated from the need to solve local, current problems of that time: coping with inflation, setting our own currency circulation, performing privatization, etc. But the absence of an overarching goal and a strategic plan has resulted in what we are facing now.
  • 3. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary During the years of independence Ukraine’s competitive positions in multiple international rankings has significantly deteriorated. For example, in 1992 Ukraine ranked 54th in human de- velopment index. In 2015 Ukraine ranks only 82nd. Similar dynamics can be observed also in terms of other measurements: index of economic freedom, corruption perceptions index, and global competitiveness index. Due to absence of a clear development strategy Ukraine lags be- hind its neighbors which were amongst Eastern bloc as well. Ukraine Ukraine's posiƟons in many raƟngs worsened Index of human potenƟal development Index of economic independence 54 82 1992 2015 95 162 1995 2016 Poland Czech Republic 51 36 38 28 51 39 23 21 Index of corrupƟon percepƟon Global compeƟƟveness index Index of Ease of doing business (Doing Business) 69 1998 130 2015 69 2001 79 2015 124 2005 83 2015 39 31 37 38 41 3141 37 54 25 41 36 Index of world override (The World Bank) 151 146 1996 2014 60 3842 28 1992 19922015 2015 1995 2016 1995 2016 1996 2014 1996 2014 1998 19982015 2015 2001 20012015 2015 2005 20052015 2015 3
  • 4. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary In 1991 Ukraine ranked 60th in the world by GDP (PPP) per capita. At that time this indica- tor reached USD 6.4 thousand, which was average for Central and Eastern Europe. For all the time till 2015 GDP per capita in Ukraine increased only by 24%, while in Poland, Hungary, Czech Repub- lic it more than doubled. During 25 years of independence Ukraine showed one of the worst dynamics of economic development. Other emerging market countries had significant progress Ukraine’s rank on GDP per capita, PPP $5.740 $6.353 $6.403 $6.757 $6.831 Poland Mexico SAR Uruguay Brazilia Average - World Average – Central Europe 57 58 Ukraine 59 60 61 62 Azerbaijan63 $6.711 $5.585 $6.470 $5.589 $15.359 $21.201 $13.165 $7.916 $17.277 $26.135 $17.740 $15.464 $25.295 +125% +214% +96% +24% +172% +355% +219% +291% +177% 1991 year 2015 year 4
  • 5. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary As the graph shows, Ukraine lagged behind not only Poland but also Belarus which had worse preconditions and resources for development. Place of Ukraine in world economy: significant decline during 25 years. GDP per capita, all countries. 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101 106 111 116 121 126 131 136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 90 000 100 000 110 000 120 000 130 000 140 000 150 000 160 000 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101 106 111 116 121 126 131 136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 Ukraine $6.403 1991 year 2015 year Ukraine $7.916 Ukraine Ukraine Poland Poland Belarus Belarus 5
  • 6. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary If we compare former Soviet republics, by the level of GDP per capita Ukraine is as of today in the same group with Moldova and countries of Central Asia. Among former Soviet re- publics, average monthly wage in USD equivalent is lower than in Ukraine only in Tajikistan. GPD per capita, PPP Ukraine is behind many countries of former Soviet Union on GPD per capita 0,0 5 000,0 10 000,0 15 000,0 20 000,0 25 000,0 30 000,0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 USD Ukraine Russia Belarus Armenia Georgia Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Moldova Lithuania Latvia Estonia Countries, with hydrocarbons extracƟon economies Belarus was behind Ukraine in 90’s, but starƟng from 1996 took a place of stable economic growth Ukraine is now in the same group together with Moldova, Tajikistan and Kyrgystan 6
  • 7. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Dynamic of average wage level, USD Among former USSR republics, average wage level in Ukraine outperforms only Tajikistan 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 USD Ukraine Russia Belarus Armenia Georgia Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Moldova Estonia Level of salary in Ukraine is higher only than those in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan 7
  • 8. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Lack of efficient economic reforms led to a severer decrease of purchasing power of Ukrainians comparing to other former Soviet republics’ citizens. In 2015 average monthly salary in Ukraine allows to purchase 2 times less beef compared to that of 1991 – 56 kg instead of 118 kg. In Russia this figure decreased only 1.5 times, and in Belarus, by contrast, it grew by 4 per cent. Average monthly salary, USD Purchasing power of Ukrainians decreased more significantly than that of other former Soviet republic Weight of beef can be purchased on average monthly salary, kg 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 1 000,0 1 200,0 1 400,0 Ukraine 0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 Ukraine 2 кв. 2015 1990 Belarus Armenia Georgia Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Moldova Lithuania Latvia Estonia Russia Belarus Armenia Georgia Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Moldova Lithuania Latvia Estonia Russia 8
  • 9. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Economic difficulties forced Ukrainians to travel abroad in search of a higher income. The share of workers’ remittances in GDP of Ukraine increased from 0.01 per cent in 1996 to 6.61 per cent in 2015. Latvia, Poland and Hungary went through the same path. But Poland, having man- aged to improve the economic situation, broke the negative trend: as according to 2015 results, contribution of Polish migrant workers to GDP is 1.5 per cent, whereas in 2006 this figure was 2.5 per cent. Share of remittances from abroad, GPD The share of workers remiƩances in GPD of Ukraine increased significantly 0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 5,0% 6,0% 7,0% 8,0% 9,0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Poland Latvia Hungary Ukraine Belarus Ukrainians are forced to travel abroad in search of a higher income.. Latvia, Poland and Hungary went through the same path. But Poland having managed to improve the economic situaƟon broke the negaƟve trend. Czech Republic Russian FederaƟon 9
  • 10. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary The population of Ukraine decreased significantly - by 13.1 per cent compared with 1991. Ukraine follows same path as Latvia did, where the population decreased by 25.4 per cent. If Ukraine does not manage to improve the welfare of citizens, further reduction of population due to migration will take place. Depopulation may become a significant issue. Population change(1991 year is taken as a basis ) The populaƟon of Ukraine decreased significantly 70,0% 75,0% 80,0% 85,0% 90,0% 95,0% 100,0% 105,0% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Poland Latvia Hungary Ukraine Belarus Ukraine follows the same path as Latvia. If Ukraine does not manage to improve the welfare of ciƟzens, further reducƟon of populaƟon due to migraƟon will take place. DepopulaƟon may become a significant issue. Czech Republic Russian FederaƟon 10
  • 11. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Domestic savings rate is extremely low in Ukraine compared to its neighbors - only 13.3 per cent of GDP, while in Poland - 23.3 per cent, Czech Republic - 33.1 per cent, in Belarus - 31.0 per cent. Due to high level of risks Ukrainians are unwilling to invest in banking system or busi- ness development. Level of savings is very low in Ukraine compared to its neighbors. Share of national savings in GPD Source: World Bank 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % Poland Latvia Hungary Ukraine Belarus Since 2005 level of naƟonal savings has been gradually decreasing. Increase of this indicator during 2014-2015 is derived from GPD decrease while the level of savings remained the same. Due to a high level of risks Ukrainians are unwilling to invest money into the banking system or business development. Czech Republic Russian FederaƟon 11
  • 12. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Lifetime of Ukrainians is less than in those countries which have become part of the EU. In Ukraine, the average life expectancy at birth is 71 years, in Latvia - 74 years, in Estonia - 77 years. One reason for the relatively low life expectancy in Ukraine is a low level of social ac- tivity of older people due to poverty. Average lifeƟme expectancy at birth LifeƟme expectancy of Ukrainians slightly grew but much slower than in other countries of the former USSR 62,0 64,0 66,0 68,0 70,0 72,0 74,0 76,0 78,0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 років Ukraine Russia Belarus Armenia Georgia Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Latvia Estonia LifeƟme of Ukrainians is less than in those countries which have become part of the EU. In Ukraine the average lifeƟme expectancy at birth is 71 years, in Latvia – 74 years, in Estonia – 77 years. One reason for the relaƟvely low lifeƟme expectancy in Ukraine is a low level of social a Ɵ i d h 12
  • 13. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Ukraine is one of the countries with most disappointed and unhappy people. In the index of happiness it is ranked 123rd in the world, while the Czech Republic is 27th, Poland - 57th, Latvia – 68th. Main reasons for this situation in Ukraine are limited degree of freedom in mak- ing important decisions in life, low income, and prevalence of corruption. World Happiness Report Ukraine is one of the countries with the most disappointed and unhappy people. 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 6,5 7,0 2005-2007 2010-2012 2012-2014 2013-2015 Poland Latvia Hungary Ukraine Russia Belarus Happiness index includes such indicators as citizen’s welfare (GPD per capita), level of social support of the society, hea Czech Republic 13
  • 14. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Information below dwells upon other reasons explaining why Ukraine is lagging on many indicators comparing to neighboring countries and countries of the former USSR. Lack of sufficient investment in technological sectors has led to increased connection between real GDP growth and Commodity Price Index. Those countries which are more suc- cessful, in particular Poland and Belarus, do not have any substantial dependence on row cycle time. At the same time Ukraine is susceptible to downturns, which is provoked by the volatility in the markets of raw materials. Comparison of GPD growth with Commodity Price Index -100,0% -50,0% 0,0% 50,0% 100,0% 150,0% 200,0% 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 RealGDPgrowthrate -40,0% -20,0% 0,0% 20,0% 40,0% 60,0% 80,0% 100,0% 120,0% 140,0% 160,0% CommodityPriceIndex Poland Hungary Ukraine Russia Belarus Commodity Price Index 2007 2009999 20111 2013 20111015 ConnecƟon between real GPD growth and Commodity Price index in Ukraine increased starƟng from 2006. Those countries which are more successful, in parƟcular Poland and Belarus, do not have any substanƟal dependence on row cycle Ɵme. At the same Ɵme Ukraine is suscepƟble to downturns, which is provoked by the volaƟlity in the markets of the raw materials. 14
  • 15. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Predominantly commodity-driven production has led to relatively slow growth of Ukrain- ian export, it tripled compared to 1994, while in the Czech Republic it increased by 8 times, in Poland - 10 times, in Belarus - 12 times. As a result, Ukraine significantly lagged behind these countries in terms of economic development. Export is an important factor through which developing countries are able to increase their wealth. By exporting goods we import middle class which eventually becomes the driving force of the internal market development. Ukraine lost in global competition in goods markets and also in the competition for the investors in the investment market. The first is a consequence of the second. Export dynamics (1994 as basis) 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0 20,0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % Poland Latvia Hungary Ukraine Russia Belarus Membership at WTO Growth of export is considered to be an important factor of economic growth of developing countries. Ukrainian export increased slower than that of most neighboring countries. As a result, Ukraine has significantly lagged behind in terms of level of economic development. Global financial crisis Початок АТО Ukrainian export increase rate is lower than in other countries of the world. Becoming a member of WTO hasn't brought Ukraine benefits World average Czech Republic 15
  • 16. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary The main reason associated with growth of Polish export is attracting of the significant amount of foreign investment, which allowed upgrading of the industrial production base. In the early 90`s the Law on Foreign Investment was accepted, which abolished restric- tions on foreign citizens’ share in companies’ equity, and provided tax allowances for foreign in- vestors (in areas with high unemployment tax perks were higher). In 1995-2001, 15 free trade zones were established in Poland, 14 of which still work. As of 2015, USD 34 billion of investments (by the average rate for the years 1995-2015) was attracted in free economic zones. Over the past 20 years 2700 investment permissions were issued and 300 thousand people found a job. Joining the EU was another impetus for the development of Polish export. Since the be- ginning of membership in the EU (2004) Poland received more than EUR 100 billion aid through various programs aimed at improving living standards and competitiveness of the Polish econ- omy. While joining the EU, Polish government has managed to receive subsidies to encourage agricultural development. Specifically, during the first year of EU membership EUR 1.5 billion sub- sidy was allocated into the agricultural sector, and in 2013 – EUR 5.2 billion of subsidies. Inside the EU budget for the years 2012-2020, EUR 31.2 billion (about 4.5 billion annually) is factored for the support of Polish agriculture. As a result of such support from the EU, foodstuff became one of the key items of Polish exports. 16 Briefcase. Polish export.
  • 17. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Due to insufficient investment, Ukrainian goods turned out to be uncompetitive. Production of gasoline decreased by 41.3 per cent comparing to that of 1991. Currently, gasoline is imported from Belarus and Lithuania. Production of textiles decreased almost by 92 per cent. Currently textiles and textile products are imported from China and Turkey. Production of cars went down by 96 per cent. One of the main countries of cars import is Slovakia, where almost 4 per cent of population works in automotive and relating industry. Decrease of manufacturing of some goods(2015, compared to 1991) -53.6% -21.2% -41.3% -13.6% -63.1% -95.7% -91.8% -100.0% -90.0% -80.0% -70.0% -60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% Crude oil and gas-condensate production Natural gas production GasolineChemical fertilizers Rolled ferrous metal products CarsTextiles Ukrainian goods turned out to be uncompeƟƟve. Currently texƟles and texƟle products are imported from China and Turkey, which is a main item of export of these countries. Chemical ferƟlizers are imported from countries of Customs Unit. Car industry is a backbone of the economy of Slovakia. Ukraine lost in global compeƟƟon for goods markets, and domesƟc manufacturers were replaced by imported goods 17
  • 18. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Belarus was able to modernize its refineries due to investments. During 2005-2015, 29 nvestment projects worth USD 1.3 billion were implemented in the country’s refineries. Nowadays Belarusian fuel Euro-4 and Euro-5 is exported to EU countries. Export of light oil products constitutes 30 per cent of total country’s exports. Complexity index indicating Belarusian refineries’ capability (known as Nelson complexity index) exceeds the European average. Despite the achieved position in the market, development does not stop. JSC “Mozyr Oil Refinery” is investing USD 1.4 bn. in the project aimed at increasing the depth of oil refining from 78 to 89 per cent. The Belarusian State Concern for Oil and Chemistry (Belneftekhim Concern) created an nnovation fund which provides funding for innovative projects, R&D, and production of new or improved products. Selection of projects is carried out through the open competition process. During 2015, USD 2.1 million was invested. The National Bank of Ukraine policy hasn’t contributed to the development of exports neither, which was aimed at keeping the exchange rate of the hryvnia against foreign curren- cies fixed (and unreasonably high) by the usage of restrictions on exporters, and usage of foreign exchange reserves. 18 Briefcase. Crude oil refining in Belarus.
  • 19. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary National manufacturers are not very active in improving quality management. In Ukraine, there are 3 ISO 9001 per USD 1 bn. Of GDP, whereas in Moldova - 7, in Poland - 12, Latvia - 20. As a result, export opportunities for Ukrainian businesses are not as favorable as for those of the neighboring countries. Quantity of ISO 9001 certificates per $1billion GPD in 2014 QuanƟty of ISO cerƟficates is ten Ɵmes higher in those countries which occupy a significant share of export markets, compared to Ukraine. Ukraine significantly lags behind even Moldova. Poland Latvia Slovakia Israel Czech Republic4 6 Ukraine 8 71 18 38 Hungary10 41,88 32,56 30,05 28,04 20,70 10,01 3,53 Italy1 79,12 Moldova50 6,92 19
  • 20. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Ukraine is getting behind in terms of products competitiveness and is losing foreign mar- kets. Out of CIS countries only Turkmenistan is ahead of Ukraine in terms of electricity con- sumption. Energy efficiency of the western neighbors of our country (Poland, Czech Republic, and Hungary) is twice higher compared to that of Ukraine. Reduction of energy consumption in Ukraine is observed since 1997, but the extent of this process is not sufficient to reach the level of the EU countries. Energy efficiency (use of energy as 1 kg of oil equivalent per USD 1000 of GDP ) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Belarus Hungary Kazakhstan Moldova Poland Turkmenistan Ukraine Trend is posiƟve, but Ukraine is significantly behind its compeƟtors in terms of energy efficiency Out of CIS countries only Turkmenistan is ahead of Ukraine in terms of electricity consumpƟon. 1kgofoilequivalentperUSD1000ofGDP Russian FederaƟon Czech Republic 20
  • 21. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Since 2005 Ukraine's net export is negative due to substantial import (including energy resources) and instability in exports. It leads to depreciation of the national currency and decrease of economic development indicators in dollar equivalent, supported by volatility in commodity prices. Therefore crisis effects of the global economy are difficult to endure for Ukraine. Share of net export of goods and services in GDP -25,0% -20,0% -15,0% -10,0% -5,0% 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Poland Latvia Hungary Ukraine Belarus . Since 2005 Ukraine net export is negaƟve due to substanƟal import (including energy resources) and instability in exports. It leads to depreciaƟon of the naƟonal currency and decrease of economic development indicators in dollar equivalent, supported by volaƟlity in commodity prices. Therefore crisis effects of the global economy are difficult to endure for Ukraine. Russian federaƟon Czech republic 21
  • 22. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Export structure characterizes Ukraine’s role in the global environment as a supplier of agricultural products. The share of agricultural products in Ukrainian exports increased almost 4 times during last 14 years. Commodity composition of the Ukrainian export Structure of export places Ukraine posiƟon in the global world as a provider of agriculture products 2015 р. 31% 8% 7%25% 13% 14% 2% Agriculture Mining industry Chemical industry Iron and steel industry Engineering industry Consumer goods manufacturing Other 2001 р. 8% 11% 11% 42% 14% 4% 10% The share of agricultural products in Ukrainian exports increased almost 4 Ɵmes during last 14 years. 22
  • 23. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Ukraine transforms from being industrial country into an agricultural one, while other countries are aimed at developing other sectors of economy. Thus, the share of agriculture in gross value added in Ukraine in 2015 amounted to 14 per cent, while in Belarus - 7.8, Poland - 2.8, Czech Republic - 2.4 per cent. Share of agriculture in gross value added 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% 12,0% 14,0% 16,0% 18,0% 20,0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Poland Ukraine Belarus Ukraine transforms from being industrial country into an agricultural one, while other countries are aimed at developing other sectors of economy. Russian FederaƟon Czech Republic 23
  • 24. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary The share of employment in agriculture is higher in Ukraine comparing to the neighbor- ing countries. At the same time wages in the Ukrainian agricultural sector are at around 30 per cent below average. Labor efficiency in the Ukrainian agriculture remains low. Thus, in Ukraine one agricul- tural sector employee accounts for USD 6.3 thousand in value added, while in Russia – USD 11.6 thousand, in the Czech Republic – USD 12.4 thousand, in Belarus – USD 15.8 thousand. Labor effi- ciency in the Ukrainian agricultural sector increases slowly, indicating that the development mainly relies on extensive factors instead of intensification of production. Without investment in agricultural sector and intensification of agricultural production we are going to lose the com- petition even here. Share of employment in agriculture 0 5 10 15 20 25 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % Poland Latvia Hungary Ukraine The share of employment in agriculture is higher in Ukraine comparing to the neighboring countries. At the same Ɵme wages in the Ukrainian agricultural sector are at around 30 per cent below average. Russia Czech Republic 24
  • 25. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Czech Republic is among leaders in labor efficiency in agriculture and is almost twice ahead of Ukraine. Main success factor of farmers from the Czech Republic is that of active support meas- ures towards agricultural sector from the state. he implementation of government agricultural support policy is conducted by the State Agricultural Intervention Fund, which performs the following tasks: iinntteerrvveennttiioonn ppuurrcchhaasseess ooff aaggrriiccuullttuurraall pprroodduuccttss,, aaiimmeedd aatt ccoouunntteerriinngg ppoossssiibbllee ddoowwnnttuurrnnss iinn mmaarrkkeett pprriicceess;; eexxppoorrtt ssuubbssiiddyy,, ii..ee.. ssuubbssiiddyy ssuuppppoorrtt ttoo pprroodduucceerrss ooff aaggrriiccuullttuurraall pprroodduuccttss ffoorr eexxppoorrtt;; ssuuppppoorrtt ooff tthhee lleeaasstt ddeevveellooppeedd rreeggiioonnss;; ssuuppppoorrtt ffoorr tthhee ccuullttiivvaattiioonn ooff eenneerrggyy ccrrooppss,, aanndd eennvviirroonnmmeennttaallllyy ffrriieennddllyy aaggrriiccuullttuurraall pprroodduuccttiioonn.. The Fund’s budget is filled from the following sources: state budget, revenue from sales of interventional products, subsidies from EU funds, loans, received penalties, and other. Programs implemented: ““RRuurraall DDeevveellooppmmeenntt PPrrooggrraamm ffoorr 22000077--22001133””,, wwiitthh tthhee aaiimm ttoo iinnccrreeaassee tthhee ccoommppeettiittiivveenneessss ooff ggooooddss aanndd sseerrvv-- iicceess pprroodduucceedd iinn rruurraall aarreeaass,, aanndd iimmpprroovviinngg llaabboorr eeffffiicciieennccyy iinn aaggrriiccuullttuurree;; iinnvveessttmmeenntt pprrooggrraamm ““FFaarrmmeerr””,, wwiitthh tthhee aaiimm ttoo hheellpp aaggrriibbuussiinneessss iinn ppuurrcchhaassiinngg ooff eennggiinneeeerriinngg eeqquuiippmmeenntt;; iinnvveessttmmeenntt pprrooggrraamm ““EEaarrtthh”” wwhhiicchh pprroommootteess tthhee aaccqquuiissiittiioonn ooff llaanndd iinn oorrddeerr ttoo ffuurrtthheerr iimmpplleemmeenntt aaggrriiccuullttuurraall pprroodduuccttiioonn.. “Program for Rural Development 2014-2020” is currently implemented. The program pro- vides support for innovation in agricultural sector, strengthening competitiveness of agricul- tural companies, and other. Subsidy support of the Czech agricultural exporters is held within the EU Agricultural Policy. Support for the Czech Republic is carried out in only a few areas of livestock: beef, veal, eggs, and some kinds of pork. Support for exports of cereals, rice, sugar, and milk is canceled. We must look at things realistically. Negative aspect of government subsidies may be an increased dependence of producers from the state. On the other hand, government support in the Czech Republic has led to a gradual increase in labor efficiency in agribusiness, and to the improved financial performance of local agricultural companies. Thus, 2015 was the most successful year for the Czech farmers, whose net profit reached a record level of CZK 22.9 billion (EUR 0.9 bn.). Also, after years of decline, production of meat finally increased. 25 Briefcase. Agricultural sector in the Czech Republic.
  • 26. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Labor efficiency in Ukrainian industry is also significantly lower than in neighboring coun- tries. Ukrainian industry produces mainly raw products with low added value, and this does not allow building a society with high living standards. Added value per 1 employee 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Poland Latvia Hungary Ukraine Ukrainian industry produces mainly raw products with low added value USDthousand,percapitaperannum Czech Republic 26
  • 27. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary At the same time there is a significant dependence on imported products of mining industries, including energy. Import of products of mining industry was 32 per cent of total im- ports in 2015. Composition of Ukrainian import 2001р. 3% 44% 12% 5% 21% 4% 11% 2015р. 5% 20% 5% 23% 4% 11% 32% Agricultural industry Mining industry Chemical industry Ironandsteelindustry Engineeringindustry Other Consumer goods manufacturing 27
  • 28. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Dynamics of gas import and consumption in Ukraine 78% 83% 77% 71% 83% 78% 81% 77% 84% 79% 52% 64% 81% 60% 56% 79% 49% 78% 79% 77% 75% 81% 81% 77% 46% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% Ukraine was forced to import about 80 per cent of its need of natural gas, despite the great potenƟal of domesƟc producƟon. Dependence on gas supply was created arƟficially as a tool to influence the economy of our country by the main supplier. 71% MAX - myllyard cubic meters (1975) ConsumpƟon, myllyard cubic meters Share of import, % For a long time, Ukraine was forced to import about 80 per cent of its need of natural gas, despite the great potential of domestic production. Every year by 2013 Ukraine spent more than USD 10 bln. on import of gas from Russia. These funds directly supported Russian economy and reduced Ukrainian investment resources. Dependence on gas supply was created artificially as a tool to influence the economy of our country by the main supplier. In particular, artificial barriers for private players in terms of market access were created. Even multinational giants which are leaders on technology and have unlimited investment potential had no access on market. Non-transparent procedure for obtaining special permits, difficulties with the use of infrastructure, lack of mechanisms to protect investors from power structures still scare away investors from the oil and gas sector. 28
  • 29. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Ukraine is third in Europe in terms of proven reserves of natural gas, and as of today Ukraine does not use its own energy potential in full. European countries by the level of proven natural gas reserves, 2015, trillion cubic meters Great Britain Other European countries Netherlands Ukraine Romania 0,7 0,6 0,2 0,1 0,3 Norway 1,9 European countries by the level of production of natural gas reserves, 2015, trillion cubic meters Great Britain Other European countries Netherlands Ukraine Romania 43,0 19,9 39,7 10,3 28,4 Norway 117,2 Ukraine is third in Europe in terms of proven reserves of natural gas. Ukraine does not use its own energy potenƟal, as other European countries do, such as Great Britain and Romania Ukraine has every opportunity for energy independence. To achieve this, it is needed to: - aƩract investments in the sector; - introduce modern exploraƟon techniques; - improve legislaƟon. 29
  • 30. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Romania’s experience of gas production could be useful for Ukraine. Romanians trans- ferred the development of oil and gas from land to the Black Sea Shelf. In 2004, 51 per cent of the Romanian state oil company Petrom was sold to Austrian OMV for USD 700 million. The arrival of large foreign company strengthened exploration activities. In 2007, ExxonMobil Corporation was involved for the study of a promising Neptun Block. Reserves amounted to 80 billion cubic meters of gas. But before that, ExxonMobil attempted to get the right to explore and develop Prykerchensky Block, which was given an unknown Vanco Prikerchenskaya company instead of a global giant. So instead of Ukraine investments were given to Romania. We also remember that sensitive issue on the fact that 40 per cent of gas re- serves of Neptun was situated on the shelf of Zmiyinyi island, which was successfully taken away in court by Romania. It is quite possible that the interests of giant business of ExxonMobil played a key role in that. In 2012, a consortium of ExxonMobil and Petrom discovered a new gas source Domino-1. Reserves of the source are estimated at 80 billion cubic meters. Potential production volumes only in this field are equal to 6-7 bn. cubic meters of gas per annum. The beginning of industrial exploitation is planned for 2020. The need for investment is USD 1 billion. During 2008-2015 about EUR 1.5 bn. was invested in exploration on the Romanian Black Sea shelf. Currently, gas production in Romania since 2008 is at 10-11 bn. cubic meters. Reduction in gas consumption led to the plan to refuse from Russian gas import since 2016. Although in 2008 the share of imported gas was 25 per cent of the total volume of consumption. According to the Wood Mackenzie opinion, new discoveries in Romania will radically change supply of energy situation in Europe. Romania has all prerequisites to become an exporter of gas. Romania continues to pursue an active policy of attracting investment in the oil and gas sector to increase the level of inventories. So the question is: who will be able to win the competition for investors? A EU country with rental rate from 3.5 to 13.5 per cent (there is also a tax on extra profits in Romania), or Ukraine, with its risks and rental rates for gas production at 14-29 per cent? 30 Briefcase. Energy independence of Romania.
  • 31. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Insufficient investment leads to lower economic growth in Ukraine. Without investments Ukraine will not be able to achieve economic success and build a successful country. Nominal GDP growth rate (1991 as basis) 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0 9,0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Poland Hungary Ukraine Belarus Investment in fixed assets renewal growth rate (1991 as basis) 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Poland Hungary Ukraine Belarus Significant connecƟon between nominal GDP growth and investment increase is observed. Without aƩracƟng investments Ukraine will not be able to achieve economic success. Russian FederaƟon Russian FederaƟon Czech Republic Czech Republic 31
  • 32. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary The deficit of investment resources primarily has a negative impact on R&D. Low invest- ment in R&D led to low innovative capacity of Ukrainian enterprises, and as a result – to low value-added production. R&D investment as per cent of GDP 0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00 3,50 4,00 4,50 5,00 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Belarus China Hungary Israel Poland Ukraine StarƟng from 2006, a downturn of research acƟvity is observed in Ukraine. Low level of investment in R&D causes week innovaƟon acƟvity of Ukrainian enterprises Russian FederaƟon Czech Republic 32
  • 33. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Israel is an example of a successful innovation policy; in 1993 the State Fund “Yozma” was founded there. USD 80 million of the fund was invested in venture capital funds established in partnership with business, and USD 20 million was invested directly in start-up projects through its subsidiary “Yozma 1”. During first 3 years of operation, the fund “Yozma 1” invested in at least 15 projects, and since 1997 the fund began to leave the startups’ business capital. In particular, in 1997 “Yozma” sold its stake in Bioscience to Johnson & Johnson Corporation for an amount 31 times higher than the initial investment. And thanks to the IPO of e-SIM “Yozma” received income which was 29 times higher than investment. As a result of state fund “Yozma” operation, business incubators and centers of commer- cialization of developments at higher education institutions developed rapidly. The volume of foreign direct investment in Israel increased from USD 345.6 million in 1991 to USD 11.5 billion in 2015. Share of high-tech exports increased from 11.3 per cent in 1991 to 16.0 per cent in 2014. 33 Briefcase. State investment fund in Israel.
  • 34. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary In the ranking of innovation, in 2016 Ukraine ranked 56th in the world, while Moldova ranked 46th, Poland – 39th, Latvia – 34th. Only 26.5 per cent of industrial products in Ukraine are high- tech, while in Slovakia - 57.9 per cent, in Hungary - 56.1, and in the Czech Republic - 43.2 per cent. Ranking of innovative economies as according to Global Innovation Index 2016, score Moldova Poland Czech Republic Israel Switzerland1 21 Ukraine 27 56 39 46 Latvia34 66,28 52,28 49,40 44,33 40,22 38,39 35,72 RF43 38,50 Ranking of R&D organizations and business entities cooperation as according to Global Innovation Index 2016, score Poland Latvia Hungary Israel Finland1 7 Ukraine 35 72 61 71 Czech Republic41 82,80 75,08 54,56 50,00 44,55 41,73 41,71 RF65 43,87 34
  • 35. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary According to BBlloooommbbeerrgg IInnnnoovvaattiioonn IInnddeexx, Switzerland ranks first in the world for innova- tion in industrial production. The largest share of industrial production in Switzerland belongs to pharmaceutical industry (21 per cent). It is believed that pharmaceutical industry may become the driver of Ukraine’s economic development. Investment in R&D, promotion of our products abroad will reduce dependence on import, increase export of high added value products, and cre- ate jobs that require highly skilled personnel. Share of high-tech and medium-high-tech in industrial production, % Share of employment in high-tech services, % Belarus Poland Slovenia Hungary Slovakia3 6 Ukraine 9 45 34 37 Czech Republic17 57,93% 56,18% 47,97% 43,24% 33,13% 31,35% 26,49% Belarus Poland Latvia RF Israel7 14 Ukraine 24 39 30 33 Czech Republic28 47,68% 44,22% 39,59% 37,85% 36,78% 35,88% 33,74% Singapore1 69,25% Luxemburg1 62,30% 35 Briefcase. Switzerland – pharmaceuticals.
  • 36. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Expensive credits reduce investment opportunities and business development. In 2015 average credit rate in Ukraine was 21.8 per cent, while in Moldova - 14.1, in Georgia - 12.5, Belarus - 4.3 per cent. Historically, the lowest lending rates in Ukraine correspond roughly to highest rates in Russia. Average credit rates 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 50,0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % Azerbaijan Belarus Poland Latvia Moldova Georgia Armenia Ukraine Historically, the lowest lending rates in Ukraine correspond roughly to highest rates in Russia. Russian FederaƟon Czech Republic 36
  • 37. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Ukraine’s external debt reached record level: in 2015 gross external debt amounted to 131.9 per cent of GDP, and foreign debt – to 38.1 per cent of GDP. Credit funds attracted by state were mainly used to cover budget deficit. Spending loans for consumption complicates the gen- eration of funds for their repay. Since 2008 Ukraine is in condition very close to national bank- ruptcy, and this negatively affects our investment attractiveness. Since 2008 Ukraine is close to default. There is a lack of foreign currency to pay foreign debts. Market of borrowing is closed for domestic companies, and a significant devaluation took place. Basically for about 8 years we have been tolerating the consequences of default, but the default was not announced and we are left with exorbitant debt and dependence on foreign donors. External debt/GDP ratio 0,0% 20,0% 40,0% 60,0% 80,0% 100,0% 120,0% 140,0% 160,0% 180,0% 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Gross external debt Credit funds aƩracted by state were mainly used to cover budget deficit. Spending loans for consumpƟon complicates the generaƟon of funds for their repay. Since 2008 Ukraine is in condiƟon very close to naƟonal bankruptcy, and this negaƟvely affects our investment aƩracƟveness. Foreign naƟonal and state-guaranteed debt 37
  • 38. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Investing in Ukraine is traditionally considered as of high risk. Ukraine is uncompetitive in terms of attracting investments as compared to other countries. Based on the level of sovereignty risk, the Czech Republic is 14 times more attractive than Ukraine. Premium for sovereign risk 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% 12,0% 14,0% 16,0% 18,0% 20,0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Azerbaijan Belarus Kazakhstan Poland Latvia Moldova Georgia Armenia Ukraine Turkmenistan Based on the level of sovereign risk, the Czech Republic is 14 Ɵmes more aƩracƟve than Ukraine. Ukraine is uncompeƟƟve in terms of aƩracƟng investments as compared to other countries. Russian FederaƟon Czech Republic Investment in Ukraine is tradiƟonally considered as high-risk. 38
  • 39. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Ukraine failed to build a full-fledged market economy of a Western type. Since 2005, Ukraine was unable to raise the level of economic freedom, which should increase investment attractiveness. Change of authorities at the highest state level over the 10 years did not bring any change. Economic Freedom Index 35,0 40,0 45,0 50,0 55,0 60,0 65,0 70,0 75,0 80,0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Poland Hungary Latvia Ukraine Belarus Presidents of Ukraine: L. Kuchma V.Yushchenko V.Yanukovych P. Poroshenko 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Since 2005, Ukraine was unable to raise the level of economic freedom, which should increase investment aƩracƟveness. Change of authoriƟes at the highest state level over the 10 years did not bring any change. Russian Federation Czech Republic 39
  • 40. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Due to the lack of reform the level of corruption in Ukraine remains unchanged for many years. According to the Corruption Perception Index, Ukraine significantly lags behind Poland, the Czech Republic, Latvia, and Hungary. More than half of Ukrainian enterprises face cases of corruption. Corruption Perceptions Index Presidents of Ukraine: L. Kuchma V.Yushchenko V.Yanukovych P.Poroshenko 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Poland Latvia Hungary Ukraine Belarus 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 No progress in terms of fighƟng corrupƟon is observed, which has a negaƟve impact not only over the economy but also on the feeling of happiness of Ukrainians Czech Republic Russian FederaƟon 40
  • 41. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary According to local media, in the Czech Republic those businesses which operate in good faith are likely to face a tax audit once in 150 years (according to TTeerrrriinnvveesstt). Share of companies which at least once were demanded to pay a bribe Poland Hungary Czech republic Latvia RF Ukraine 1,8% 2,1% 3,5% 3,5% 14,2% Belarus 8,9% 50,4% 41
  • 42. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Constantly changing rules and policies discourage business investment in Ukraine and make it impossible to develop and implement an economic development strategy. Quality of regulatory policy is traditionally low. Regulative Policy Quality Index -2,50 -2,00 -1,50 -1,00 -0,50 0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 Poland Latvia Hungary Ukraine Belarus -2,50 -2,00 -1,50 -1,00 -0,50 0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 4 Poland Latvia Hungary Ukraine Belarus V. Yuschenko V. YanukovychL. Kuchma L.Kuchma Presidents of Ukraine: Presidents of Ukraine: Index of political stable V. Yuschenko V. Yanukovych P. Poroshenko 4 P.Poroshenko Constantly changing regulaƟons and policies discourage business investment in Ukraine and make it impossible to develop and implement an economic development strategy. Russian FederaƟon Russian FederaƟon Czech Republic Czech Republic 42
  • 43. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary Average term of prime minister’s work in Ukraine is around 1 year. In such conditions state officials cannot fully take care of the welfare of citizens and development of the national economy in the long run. Amount of prime-ministers during 1991-2016 16 12 15 15 24 8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Poland Czech Republic Latvia Russian Federation Ukraine Belarus Average term of prime minister's work in Ukraine is around 1 yea. 43
  • 44. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary At enterprise level, frequent changes of management leads to confusion in management policy, reduction of operational effectiveness and as consequence – in a decline of capitaliza- tion and bankruptcy. Same happens at the state level: countries without their own development strategy lose their capitalization and go bankrupt. We have calculated simulated capitalization of the imaginary company “State of Ukraine”. According to a graph, today Ukraine with its level of capitalization stays at the level of years 1999-2000. Inefficient public management and lack of strategy does not allow the country to move forward and increase its own value in the eyes of potential investors. In order to make effective changes the country needs to rethink its future path of development and change approaches to public policy. Conditional rate of capitalization of imaginary company named“State “Ukraine”* 0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0 300,0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 USDbillion Minimum level since 1991 44
  • 45. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary HHooww II sseeee UUkkrraaiinnee iinn 1100 yyeeaarrss?? Prosperous, self-sufficient, independent in economic decision-making, attractive to in vestors, loved by its citizens, a key subject of geopolitical decision-making in the region, the center of innovation in Eastern Europe, tourist center, a new briefcase to follow in terms of progress in economic and social policy. WWhhaatt sshhoouulldd bbee ddoonnee ttoo aacchhiieevvee tthhiiss:: 1. Establishment of clear regulations and their enforcement (tax reform, judicial reform, reform of the prosecution). 2. Development of a comprehensive economic strategy and the establishment of national management KPI based on this strategy (strategy is a job for sector reforms). 3. Creation of conditions for easy access of investments (‘cheap money’ policy, pension reform, working financial market, and conditions for the re-activation of savings and their return in the financial sector). 4. Attraction of foreign investment, including large multinational companies that could place production facilities in Ukraine. In particular, this applies to Asian companies that may consider Ukraine as a springboard for access to European markets. Such tools can be used: state guarantees, tax incentives, public-private partnerships. 5. Support of export (development of international relations) 6. Ensuring energy independence by attracting investments in oil and gas industry. 7. Investment in energy efficiency and in innovation, as well as in venture projects. 8. Stimulation of entrepreneurship. 45
  • 46. Український інститут майбутнього Вул. Олеся Гончара, 65 (6-й поверх), м. Київ Ukrainian Institute for the Future Olesia Honchara str., 65 (6th floor), Kyiv +38 044 537 17 78 uifuture@gmail.com www.uifuture.org www.facebook.com/UkrainianIF/ www.twitter.com/FutureUkr