During Ukraine's 25 years of independence, its economic development has significantly lagged behind neighbors like Poland, Czech Republic, and Belarus. Ukraine's GDP per capita and HDI ranking have deteriorated, while emigration and depopulation have increased. Domestic savings are much lower in Ukraine compared to neighbors due to high risks. Life expectancy is also lower in Ukraine than in neighboring EU countries. The document analyzes these and other economic trends in Ukraine compared to other post-Soviet states over the past 25 years to argue that Ukraine's lack of a clear development strategy has held it back.
Eesti Pank Economic Statement, 12 June 2013Eesti Pank
The document summarizes the Eesti Pank Economic Statement from June 12, 2013. It discusses the economic outlook for Estonia and the euro area. Confidence in Estonia is higher than the euro area average. Inflation in the euro area has dropped below 2% while economic growth has been negative for six consecutive quarters. Estonia's GDP is forecast to grow at around 3.5% over the coming years, supported by investment activity and export growth as external demand recovers. The unemployment rate is expected to continue falling.
Eesti Pank Economic Statement 10 December 2014Eesti Pank
The document summarizes the Eesti Pank Economic Statement from December 10, 2014. It notes that global and euro area economic growth is slower than expected. Inflation in the euro area has fallen and interest rates remain low. While the Russian rouble has fallen against the euro, trade sanctions against Russia have not significantly harmed the Estonian economy. The forecast predicts that Estonian economic growth will pick up slowly, reaching its long-term sustainable rate by 2016, though the shrinking population means GDP will grow more slowly than GDP per capita. The general government budget is expected to remain in deficit through 2016.
Swedbank economic outlook update, april 2014Swedbank
The document summarizes Swedbank's economic outlook update which notes that risks to the global economic recovery have increased. It identifies key risks as a potential bursting of Chinese bubbles, deflation in the Eurozone, and escalating sanctions against Russia potentially leading to a trade war. The Swedish economy is performing well but growth is expected to slow in 2015 as household spending is dampened by rising interest rates. Unemployment remains Sweden's main structural challenge. The Baltic economies will see positive growth despite being negatively impacted by less trade with Russia.
Presentation by Governor Ardo Hansson at the conference Äriplaan 2014Eesti Pank
The document summarizes an economic forecast for Estonia in 2014. It notes that while the global economic crisis is retreating, recovery has been uneven. Estonia's economic growth has been low due to issues in the transportation sector, but other areas have grown strongly. Future growth will depend on how Estonia handles its current shortage of human resources. Key indicators in the forecast include GDP growth reaching 4% in 2014 and unemployment falling further.
Eesti Pank Economic Statement 12 December 2013Eesti Pank
The document provides an economic statement from Eesti Pank (the central bank of Estonia) summarizing the Estonian economy and forecast for coming years. Key points include:
- The Estonian economy grew more slowly than forecast in 2013 due to weaker external demand, especially from Finland.
- Rapid wage growth and high domestic demand have caused some imbalances as productivity growth was negative.
- Growth is forecast to pick up in 2014 and 2015 as external demand and investments increase, but risks include continued wage pressures and uncertainty in export markets.
- Inflation will remain moderate while unemployment falls and the budget deficit remains small.
Eesti Pank Economic Statement, 12 June 2013Eesti Pank
The document summarizes the Eesti Pank Economic Statement from June 12, 2013. It discusses the economic outlook for Estonia and the euro area. Confidence in Estonia is higher than the euro area average. Inflation in the euro area has dropped below 2% while economic growth has been negative for six consecutive quarters. Estonia's GDP is forecast to grow at around 3.5% over the coming years, supported by investment activity and export growth as external demand recovers. The unemployment rate is expected to continue falling.
Eesti Pank Economic Statement 10 December 2014Eesti Pank
The document summarizes the Eesti Pank Economic Statement from December 10, 2014. It notes that global and euro area economic growth is slower than expected. Inflation in the euro area has fallen and interest rates remain low. While the Russian rouble has fallen against the euro, trade sanctions against Russia have not significantly harmed the Estonian economy. The forecast predicts that Estonian economic growth will pick up slowly, reaching its long-term sustainable rate by 2016, though the shrinking population means GDP will grow more slowly than GDP per capita. The general government budget is expected to remain in deficit through 2016.
Swedbank economic outlook update, april 2014Swedbank
The document summarizes Swedbank's economic outlook update which notes that risks to the global economic recovery have increased. It identifies key risks as a potential bursting of Chinese bubbles, deflation in the Eurozone, and escalating sanctions against Russia potentially leading to a trade war. The Swedish economy is performing well but growth is expected to slow in 2015 as household spending is dampened by rising interest rates. Unemployment remains Sweden's main structural challenge. The Baltic economies will see positive growth despite being negatively impacted by less trade with Russia.
Presentation by Governor Ardo Hansson at the conference Äriplaan 2014Eesti Pank
The document summarizes an economic forecast for Estonia in 2014. It notes that while the global economic crisis is retreating, recovery has been uneven. Estonia's economic growth has been low due to issues in the transportation sector, but other areas have grown strongly. Future growth will depend on how Estonia handles its current shortage of human resources. Key indicators in the forecast include GDP growth reaching 4% in 2014 and unemployment falling further.
Eesti Pank Economic Statement 12 December 2013Eesti Pank
The document provides an economic statement from Eesti Pank (the central bank of Estonia) summarizing the Estonian economy and forecast for coming years. Key points include:
- The Estonian economy grew more slowly than forecast in 2013 due to weaker external demand, especially from Finland.
- Rapid wage growth and high domestic demand have caused some imbalances as productivity growth was negative.
- Growth is forecast to pick up in 2014 and 2015 as external demand and investments increase, but risks include continued wage pressures and uncertainty in export markets.
- Inflation will remain moderate while unemployment falls and the budget deficit remains small.
This document analyzes the Russian economy in a global context and provides an outlook for Russia's economic growth prospects. Some key points:
1) Russia has the 6th largest economy globally but GDP growth has slowed in recent years from over 3% to around 1-2% expected for 2014.
2) Inflation has declined significantly since the 2000s but unemployment has not improved correspondingly.
3) Exports and imports remain dependent on oil/gas and domestic demand respectively. Weakening global growth and Russia's reliance on exports pose risks to economic growth.
4) Private consumption continues to support the economy but investments remain subdued due to uncertain outlook and falling corporate profits linked to oil prices
The document provides an overview of the labor market in Russia, including:
- The largest cities have populations between 1-12 million people and account for most of the labor force. Moscow has the highest salaries at 197% of the national average.
- Unemployment ranges from 0.8-6.9% between regions, with the national average around 6%.
- Salaries in major industries like engineering, sales, marketing, and IT range from €1,000-€9,000 per month in Moscow, depending on the role and experience.
- Employers pay additional taxes and insurance contributions of 30% on the first €11,540 of salary and 10% on amounts above that.
-
- Latvian GDP grew 5.5% in 2011, driven primarily by exports and investments which were up 9.1% and 25.6% respectively.
- In Q4 2011, GDP growth slowed to 1.1% from 1.5% in Q3, with investments and exports continuing to power the economy.
- While risks have declined, eurozone issues remain a challenge, leading economists to forecast slower GDP growth of 2% for Latvia in 2012 as export growth moderates.
The document summarizes labor market trends in Russia, including:
- Urban population is 74% of Russia's total population of over 120 million people. Moscow has over 11.5 million residents.
- Unemployment ranges from 2% to 7.6% depending on the region. Salaries vary significantly between regions as well, with Moscow having the highest average and minimum wages.
- Employer costs for an office employee in Moscow making 5,000 EUR net per month would be around 6,541 EUR including a 13% income tax and mandatory insurance contributions of 30% and 10%.
- Work permits for foreign employees can take 1-4 months depending on the type and include income tax rates of 13
Various aspects of Ukrainian society such as: Level of well-being, Tolerance, Trust, Linguistic-ethnic groups, The attitude of Ukrainians to Russia and Russians to Ukraine, Independence of Ukraine, Attitude to the EU NATO the Customs Union, Euromaidan, Propaganda, Situation in the Donbas, Migration, Volunteering
Eesti Pank Economic Statement 11 June 2014Eesti Pank
The document provides an economic statement from Eesti Pank (the central bank of Estonia) that summarizes the Estonian economy and provides a forecast for coming years. Key points include that growth in Estonia's external demand is accelerating which will boost the Estonian economy in 2014 and 2015. Inflation will rise but remain moderate in coming years. Economic growth over the forecast period will be supported by steady recovery in external demand and low interest rates, though the key issue for sustained growth is improving productivity. Risks include a potential deepening of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine.
This document provides an overview of the impact of international labor migration on Moldova based on previous research. It discusses the main effects of labor migration such as remittances sent home which have increased yearly and had a positive impact on Moldova's banking system and GDP. Labor migration has also impacted Moldova's employment levels, population demographics, and socially vulnerable groups. While the crisis of 2008-2010 did not result in mass returns of Moldovan migrants, their remittances have helped reduce unemployment in Moldova and improve living standards.
Stanford Brown Investor Insight Series November 13mjpdwyer
This document provides an overview of investment markets and the global economic outlook. It discusses factors such as:
- US stock markets have outperformed other markets since 2011 due to strong earnings growth despite a weak recovery. Earnings growth in other regions remains elusive.
- European problems remain unresolved as bank lending standards are tightening and preventing a sustained recovery.
- The Australian economy needs more support as mining investment declines and households cannot fill the growth void due to paying down debt.
- Central banks have done much to support markets but risks remain from overly leveraged balance sheets, unresolved European issues, and the need for governments to rein in debt and boost productivity growth. Ongoing management of risks
The paper covers the analysis of tourist movements between Macedonia and Serbia. The goal is to see the dynamics of the tourist trip and overnight stays through the statistics used by the state institutions of both countries. Through the presented textual and graphic results - tables and graphs, the tourist movement between the two countries, the places of famous tourist destinations is perceived, and recommendations are given for increasing the mutual tourist visit.
This document is a chartbook from the 2014 OECD Economic Survey of Portugal that compares the country's economic statistics to OECD averages. It finds that Portugal has a lower GDP per capita and spends less on R&D and education than OECD averages. However, life expectancy is close to average and it spends more on health care and pensions. Unemployment rates, especially for youth, are higher than average while emissions are lower.
Este documento describe los diferentes tipos y aplicaciones de las compuertas hidráulicas. Las compuertas se utilizan principalmente para regular el flujo de agua en presas, canales y proyectos de irrigación. Se describen varios tipos comunes de compuertas, incluidas las compuertas de techo, basculantes, cilíndricas y de esclusa. También se explican los principios hidráulicos involucrados en el cálculo del flujo a través de las compuertas, incluidos los coeficientes de contra
Este documento describe las características principales de un weblog, incluyendo que dispone de un sitio con enlaces permanentes, comentarios, archivos ordenados cronológicamente o temáticamente, lista de enlaces, buscador interno, dirección de correo electrónico de contacto y seguimiento en redes sociales.
This study examined differences in coping strategies between anxious solitary (AS) and non-AS adolescents in response to peer stress. The following key points were discussed:
1) AS adolescents reported experiencing more peer-related stress than non-AS adolescents. However, they also used less effective coping strategies.
2) Specifically, AS adolescents were more likely to use both engaged and disengaged involuntary coping (uncontrolled responses), and less likely to use voluntary engagement (conscious problem-solving).
3) The heightened peer stress and social anxiety of AS adolescents may lead to increased rumination and physiological arousal in response to peer problems, as well as avoidance of directly addressing issues. Their coping responses have implications for long-term
Comunicación digital evolución de las comunicaciones últimos dos siglos.Patricia jara
El documento resume la evolución de la comunicación desde los siglos 18 y 19 hasta la actualidad. Comenzó con la comunicación unidireccional a través de medios como la radio y la televisión. Luego, los nuevos medios digitales permitieron la comunicación bidireccional e interactiva a través de Internet. Esto llevó al surgimiento de la "sociedad de la información" y paradigmas como la interactividad y la personalización. Las herramientas digitales sincrónicas como el correo electrónico y las redes sociales ahora permiten la comunicación
The document provides information about events in November 2016 from a newsletter. It includes dates for Book Lover's Day, election day, Veterans Day, Thanksgiving, and other notable dates. The main article discusses the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. It notes both candidates have faced scandals but emphasizes the importance of voting in local elections as well. Other sections provide updates about the school's Relay for Life team, spotlight alumni and faculty, and include a recipe for cocoa krispies turkey drumsticks.
Два роки з початку АТО та гібридної війни РФ проти України: провал путінськог...UIFuture
Друга частина аналітики. Перша вийшла у світ у квітні 2016 року.
У доповіді розказується як і хто будував ідеологію сепаратизму, чому ідеї відокремлення знайшли відгук серед населення Донбасу, на які психологічні важелі тиснули агресори, чому «русская вєсна» захлинулась в Одесі, а також які можливості впустили українські лідери і як їх надолужити.
Автори: Тарас Березовець, Андрій Каракуц, Валерій Кравченко, Олександр Доброєр.
Anxious Solitary Adolescents' Coping in Response to Peer StressVictor Scott
This study examined differences in coping strategies between anxious solitary (AS) and non-AS adolescents in response to peer stress. The following key points were discussed:
1) AS adolescents reported experiencing more peer-related stress than non-AS adolescents. However, they also used less effective coping strategies.
2) Specifically, AS adolescents were more likely to use both engaged and disengaged involuntary coping (uncontrolled responses), and they used voluntary engagement (conscious problem-solving) less than non-AS adolescents.
3) The findings suggest that AS adolescents often have uncontrollable responses to heightened peer stress, and these responses may contribute to further peer mistreatment and anxious solitude over time.
Este documento proporciona información sobre Israel. En tres oraciones: Israel es un país ubicado en Medio Oriente, con Jerusalén como su capital. La religión predominante es el judaísmo, aunque también hay una población significativa de musulmanes y cristianos. El documento incluye detalles sobre la bandera, moneda, idiomas, gobierno y atracciones turísticas de Israel.
This presentation introduces Dropbox. It discusses that Dropbox is a file hosting service that allows users to create a special folder that syncs files across all of their devices. The presentation covers what Dropbox is, how to access and log in to Dropbox, how it works by syncing files across devices, data storage space limits for free and paid users, security measures taken by Dropbox, supported operating systems and languages. It concludes by emphasizing the importance and usefulness of Dropbox.
This document analyzes the Russian economy in a global context and provides an outlook for Russia's economic growth prospects. Some key points:
1) Russia has the 6th largest economy globally but GDP growth has slowed in recent years from over 3% to around 1-2% expected for 2014.
2) Inflation has declined significantly since the 2000s but unemployment has not improved correspondingly.
3) Exports and imports remain dependent on oil/gas and domestic demand respectively. Weakening global growth and Russia's reliance on exports pose risks to economic growth.
4) Private consumption continues to support the economy but investments remain subdued due to uncertain outlook and falling corporate profits linked to oil prices
The document provides an overview of the labor market in Russia, including:
- The largest cities have populations between 1-12 million people and account for most of the labor force. Moscow has the highest salaries at 197% of the national average.
- Unemployment ranges from 0.8-6.9% between regions, with the national average around 6%.
- Salaries in major industries like engineering, sales, marketing, and IT range from €1,000-€9,000 per month in Moscow, depending on the role and experience.
- Employers pay additional taxes and insurance contributions of 30% on the first €11,540 of salary and 10% on amounts above that.
-
- Latvian GDP grew 5.5% in 2011, driven primarily by exports and investments which were up 9.1% and 25.6% respectively.
- In Q4 2011, GDP growth slowed to 1.1% from 1.5% in Q3, with investments and exports continuing to power the economy.
- While risks have declined, eurozone issues remain a challenge, leading economists to forecast slower GDP growth of 2% for Latvia in 2012 as export growth moderates.
The document summarizes labor market trends in Russia, including:
- Urban population is 74% of Russia's total population of over 120 million people. Moscow has over 11.5 million residents.
- Unemployment ranges from 2% to 7.6% depending on the region. Salaries vary significantly between regions as well, with Moscow having the highest average and minimum wages.
- Employer costs for an office employee in Moscow making 5,000 EUR net per month would be around 6,541 EUR including a 13% income tax and mandatory insurance contributions of 30% and 10%.
- Work permits for foreign employees can take 1-4 months depending on the type and include income tax rates of 13
Various aspects of Ukrainian society such as: Level of well-being, Tolerance, Trust, Linguistic-ethnic groups, The attitude of Ukrainians to Russia and Russians to Ukraine, Independence of Ukraine, Attitude to the EU NATO the Customs Union, Euromaidan, Propaganda, Situation in the Donbas, Migration, Volunteering
Eesti Pank Economic Statement 11 June 2014Eesti Pank
The document provides an economic statement from Eesti Pank (the central bank of Estonia) that summarizes the Estonian economy and provides a forecast for coming years. Key points include that growth in Estonia's external demand is accelerating which will boost the Estonian economy in 2014 and 2015. Inflation will rise but remain moderate in coming years. Economic growth over the forecast period will be supported by steady recovery in external demand and low interest rates, though the key issue for sustained growth is improving productivity. Risks include a potential deepening of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine.
This document provides an overview of the impact of international labor migration on Moldova based on previous research. It discusses the main effects of labor migration such as remittances sent home which have increased yearly and had a positive impact on Moldova's banking system and GDP. Labor migration has also impacted Moldova's employment levels, population demographics, and socially vulnerable groups. While the crisis of 2008-2010 did not result in mass returns of Moldovan migrants, their remittances have helped reduce unemployment in Moldova and improve living standards.
Stanford Brown Investor Insight Series November 13mjpdwyer
This document provides an overview of investment markets and the global economic outlook. It discusses factors such as:
- US stock markets have outperformed other markets since 2011 due to strong earnings growth despite a weak recovery. Earnings growth in other regions remains elusive.
- European problems remain unresolved as bank lending standards are tightening and preventing a sustained recovery.
- The Australian economy needs more support as mining investment declines and households cannot fill the growth void due to paying down debt.
- Central banks have done much to support markets but risks remain from overly leveraged balance sheets, unresolved European issues, and the need for governments to rein in debt and boost productivity growth. Ongoing management of risks
The paper covers the analysis of tourist movements between Macedonia and Serbia. The goal is to see the dynamics of the tourist trip and overnight stays through the statistics used by the state institutions of both countries. Through the presented textual and graphic results - tables and graphs, the tourist movement between the two countries, the places of famous tourist destinations is perceived, and recommendations are given for increasing the mutual tourist visit.
This document is a chartbook from the 2014 OECD Economic Survey of Portugal that compares the country's economic statistics to OECD averages. It finds that Portugal has a lower GDP per capita and spends less on R&D and education than OECD averages. However, life expectancy is close to average and it spends more on health care and pensions. Unemployment rates, especially for youth, are higher than average while emissions are lower.
Este documento describe los diferentes tipos y aplicaciones de las compuertas hidráulicas. Las compuertas se utilizan principalmente para regular el flujo de agua en presas, canales y proyectos de irrigación. Se describen varios tipos comunes de compuertas, incluidas las compuertas de techo, basculantes, cilíndricas y de esclusa. También se explican los principios hidráulicos involucrados en el cálculo del flujo a través de las compuertas, incluidos los coeficientes de contra
Este documento describe las características principales de un weblog, incluyendo que dispone de un sitio con enlaces permanentes, comentarios, archivos ordenados cronológicamente o temáticamente, lista de enlaces, buscador interno, dirección de correo electrónico de contacto y seguimiento en redes sociales.
This study examined differences in coping strategies between anxious solitary (AS) and non-AS adolescents in response to peer stress. The following key points were discussed:
1) AS adolescents reported experiencing more peer-related stress than non-AS adolescents. However, they also used less effective coping strategies.
2) Specifically, AS adolescents were more likely to use both engaged and disengaged involuntary coping (uncontrolled responses), and less likely to use voluntary engagement (conscious problem-solving).
3) The heightened peer stress and social anxiety of AS adolescents may lead to increased rumination and physiological arousal in response to peer problems, as well as avoidance of directly addressing issues. Their coping responses have implications for long-term
Comunicación digital evolución de las comunicaciones últimos dos siglos.Patricia jara
El documento resume la evolución de la comunicación desde los siglos 18 y 19 hasta la actualidad. Comenzó con la comunicación unidireccional a través de medios como la radio y la televisión. Luego, los nuevos medios digitales permitieron la comunicación bidireccional e interactiva a través de Internet. Esto llevó al surgimiento de la "sociedad de la información" y paradigmas como la interactividad y la personalización. Las herramientas digitales sincrónicas como el correo electrónico y las redes sociales ahora permiten la comunicación
The document provides information about events in November 2016 from a newsletter. It includes dates for Book Lover's Day, election day, Veterans Day, Thanksgiving, and other notable dates. The main article discusses the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. It notes both candidates have faced scandals but emphasizes the importance of voting in local elections as well. Other sections provide updates about the school's Relay for Life team, spotlight alumni and faculty, and include a recipe for cocoa krispies turkey drumsticks.
Два роки з початку АТО та гібридної війни РФ проти України: провал путінськог...UIFuture
Друга частина аналітики. Перша вийшла у світ у квітні 2016 року.
У доповіді розказується як і хто будував ідеологію сепаратизму, чому ідеї відокремлення знайшли відгук серед населення Донбасу, на які психологічні важелі тиснули агресори, чому «русская вєсна» захлинулась в Одесі, а також які можливості впустили українські лідери і як їх надолужити.
Автори: Тарас Березовець, Андрій Каракуц, Валерій Кравченко, Олександр Доброєр.
Anxious Solitary Adolescents' Coping in Response to Peer StressVictor Scott
This study examined differences in coping strategies between anxious solitary (AS) and non-AS adolescents in response to peer stress. The following key points were discussed:
1) AS adolescents reported experiencing more peer-related stress than non-AS adolescents. However, they also used less effective coping strategies.
2) Specifically, AS adolescents were more likely to use both engaged and disengaged involuntary coping (uncontrolled responses), and they used voluntary engagement (conscious problem-solving) less than non-AS adolescents.
3) The findings suggest that AS adolescents often have uncontrollable responses to heightened peer stress, and these responses may contribute to further peer mistreatment and anxious solitude over time.
Este documento proporciona información sobre Israel. En tres oraciones: Israel es un país ubicado en Medio Oriente, con Jerusalén como su capital. La religión predominante es el judaísmo, aunque también hay una población significativa de musulmanes y cristianos. El documento incluye detalles sobre la bandera, moneda, idiomas, gobierno y atracciones turísticas de Israel.
This presentation introduces Dropbox. It discusses that Dropbox is a file hosting service that allows users to create a special folder that syncs files across all of their devices. The presentation covers what Dropbox is, how to access and log in to Dropbox, how it works by syncing files across devices, data storage space limits for free and paid users, security measures taken by Dropbox, supported operating systems and languages. It concludes by emphasizing the importance and usefulness of Dropbox.
Assessment of the situation in the donbas minsk agreementsUIFuture
This document summarizes the results of a socio-political survey regarding the situation in the Donbas region of Ukraine and the Minsk agreements. Key findings include:
- Only 11.4% of respondents were familiar with the content of the Minsk agreements, while 60.3% had superficial knowledge.
- Support for Ukraine adhering to the Minsk agreements decreased from 54.9% to 42.3% compared to a previous survey.
- Respondents were pessimistic about resolving the Donbas conflict, with 37.5% believing it would be frozen for a decade.
- There was no clear consensus on how to solve the problem of occupied Donbas territories.
Мета дослідження: виявити відношення громадян України до соціально-політичної та економічної ситуації в країні, визначити електоральні вподобання та рівень довіри до громадянських і державних інститутів, визначити оцінку ситуації на Донбасі, е-декларування та інших резонансних подій
Objective: to identify the attitude of citizens of Ukraine to the socio-political and economic situation in the country, to determine the electoral preferences and level of confidence towards the civil and public institutions, as well as to form an estimate of judgments of the situation in the Donbas, e-declaration and other high-profile events
The GDP per capita in PPP terms of the former communist economies converged quite rapidly with that of Germany until 2007 but then this trend has been either stopped or even reversed. Perspectives of further convergence remain uncertain and conditional on solving the problem of low saving rate and return to systemic reforms.
Marek Dabrowski is currently CASE Fellow, Non-Resident Fellow a Bruegel, Fellow at the European Comission-Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Professor of the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of CASE Ukraine in Kiev, and Member of Scientific Council of E.T. Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy in Moscow. Between 1989 and 1990 he served as a First Deputy Minister of Finance of the Republic of Poland. See the full profile here http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/51822
This document discusses the uncertain prospects for economic convergence between Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, former Soviet Union (CIS) countries, and Western Europe. It analyzes GDP per capita levels and percentages of Germany's GDP per capita from 2001-2013 for 11 new EU member states (NMS), 5 Western Balkan countries, and 12 CIS countries. Barriers to convergence include slower global and European economic growth as well as declining domestic labor resources in CEE/CIS countries. National reforms around welfare systems, education, fiscal policy, privatization and business climate could help increase productivity and investment needed for continued convergence. International cooperation on trade, financial systems, macroeconomic policies and climate change would also support economic convergence globally.
This paper discusses the global financial crisis of 2008/9 in thirteen countries, the ten new EU members that previously were communist and the three countries of Western former Soviet Union. Their problems were excessive current account deficits and private foreign debt, currency mismatches, and high inflation, while public finances were in good shape. The dominant cause was fixed exchange rates. Many lessons can be drawn from this crisis. A dollar peg makes no sense in this part of the world. The five currency boards in the region have lacked credibility. By contrast, inflation targeting has worked eminently. The euro has proven credible both in the countries that officially adopted it and in the countries that adopted it unilaterally. With the exception of Hungary, all the countries in the region have displayed decent fiscal policies. No government should accept large domestic loans in foreign currency and they can be regulated away. The IMF has successfully returned to the original Washington consensus with relatively few conditions: a reasonable budget balance and a realistic exchange rate policy, while focusing more on bank restructuring. The most controversial issue is the role of the ECB. The ECB should facilitate the accession of willing EU members to the euro by relaxing the ERM II conditions.
Authored by: Anders Aslund
Published in 2009
Draft Resolution of the Rada on Anti-crisis Economic Development PlanViktor Halasiuk, PhD
DRAFT RESOLUTION registered under No. 6346 of April 12, 2017
On the Change of the National Economic Policy to Ensure Protection of National Interests, Economic Growth, Poverty Reduction and Higher Standard of Living in Ukraine
This document provides an overview of investment opportunities in Ukraine and argues that now is a good time to invest. It notes that Ukraine had potential after the fall of the USSR but failed to realize it due to lack of reforms over 20+ years. However, recent events like the 2014 revolution have led to pro-reform leadership and started structural changes like fiscal discipline, deregulation, privatization and transparency. The document highlights opportunities in sectors like IT, manufacturing, agriculture, and concludes that Ukraine now presents a ground-floor investment opportunity.
EasyBusiness expresses gratitude to international organizations for their support in 2015. The annual report discusses Ukraine's poor economic conditions, including high inflation, large foreign debt, and declining GDP. Deregulation is presented as the key to improving business conditions and stimulating economic growth by reducing bureaucracy and excessive regulation. International ratings place Ukraine low on ease of doing business and economic freedom. The report aims to increase transparency around EasyBusiness' deregulation initiatives and reform efforts.
Horizon Capital Ukraine Ground Floor Opportunity pptHorizon Capital
The document presents a bullish case for investing in Ukraine in 2015, arguing it presents a ground-floor investment opportunity. It outlines Ukraine's lost potential over the past decades due to a lack of reforms but notes the situation has changed significantly. A new pro-Western government elected by both East and West aims to implement structural reforms to attract investment. Recent macroeconomic stabilization and fiscal discipline further improve Ukraine's investment prospects despite challenges remaining.
This document provides an overview of why respected investors such as David Rubinstein, George Soros, and Richard Branson are bullish about investing in Ukraine despite the challenges it faces. It argues that Ukraine now represents a ground-floor investment opportunity due to reforms that have stabilized the economy, improved transparency, and opened opportunities in sectors like IT, manufacturing, and agriculture. Key reforms include increasing gas prices to market rates, privatizing over 300 state-owned enterprises, cleaning up the banking system, and implementing a pro-European agenda that has strengthened civil society and the rule of law.
The Ukrainian currency lost another 1% against the dollar last week. A corruption scandal weakened the government but also strengthened its position by allowing it to portray itself as reformist. Ukraine had a rare current account surplus in December of $418 million due to lower natural gas imports, but the surplus is not expected to be sustainable. Total public debt rose to 80.6% of GDP by the end of 2015, double the level from two years ago.
The ruble, crisis and stagnation: The region's "new normal"?UNDP Eurasia
The document discusses the economic challenges facing countries in Europe and Central Asia due to stagnation and crisis. It summarizes that:
1) The region is experiencing a "new normal" of stagnation and vulnerability to crisis due to weak domestic reforms and external factors like low commodity prices and slow growth in Russia and the EU.
2) The ruble crisis has hit other post-Soviet economies severely through falling exports, remittances, and currency depreciation, increasing poverty.
3) UN development programs should focus on monitoring vulnerable groups and identifying solutions like employment programs and social protection reforms.
This document provides a macroeconomic developments report for June 2015. It discusses developments in Latvia's external sector and exports, monetary policy and financial markets, domestic demand, aggregate supply, costs and prices, and the balance of payments. It also provides GDP growth projections for Latvia's major trade partners in 2014-2016 and concludes by revising Latvia's GDP growth forecast for 2015 down slightly to 2.0% while also lowering the inflation forecast.
• Die Plätze, die Österreich im CEE- und im weltweiten Wohlstandsranking einnimmt, zeichnen ein gemischtes Bild eines breiten, aber stagnierenden Wohlstands
• Der Rückgang des Sozialkapitals war für die mangelnde Wohlstandsentwicklung in Österreich entscheidend
• Die Verbesserung des Sozialkapitals kann der Wohlstandsentwicklung in Österreich Auftrieb verleihen
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Few empirical studies have looked specifically at the contribution of financial sector development to transition economies' growth, although developed financial markets have been generally assumed to be crucial to supporting growth performance. An empirical exercise that relates GDP growth to a range of variables finds some support for the proposition that financial sector development—in particular the role of foreign-owned banks—had a significant positive impact on transition economies' growth during the past decade.
The results of elections held in eastern Europe this year do not indicate any clear shifts in regional trends or direction. Bulgaria and Romania are set to join the EU on January 1st 2007 (at most there could have been a one-year delay until January 2008), but this will be under the strictest conditions ever applied to new members. Acrimonious negotiations on the final status of Kosovo appear to be grinding towards an impasse and possible crisis. It is difficult to predict the effects on developments in the wider region—not only in restive and resentful Serbia, but also in Bosnia and Hercegovina (BiH), Macedonia and possibly further afield. This is occurring when the EU's most effective instrument for influencing developments in the region—the offer of EU membership—has been seriously weakened by the anti-enlargement mood sweeping western Europe.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2015Latvijas Banka
Based on data from tLatvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Economic overview of the republic of belarusArtem Chaiko
This document provides an overview of the economy of Belarus, including before and after the 2011 economic crisis. Before the crisis, Belarus had experienced economic growth since 1996 under President Lukashenka, with a variety of industries including metalworking, tractors, earthmovers and others. Comparatively, Belarus had higher GDP per capita than other Eastern Partnership countries except Azerbaijan, full employment, and low debt and non-performing loans. After the crisis, inflation slowed the economy initially but the trade balance improved as Belarusian goods became relatively cheaper. Privatization efforts struggled due to lack of buyers. GDP growth forecasts were lowered to 4-5% or possibly 1-3% and public spending was reduced.
1) The document discusses Ukraine's economic growth over the past 30 years compared to other countries, finding that Ukraine's GDP per capita is now 30% lower than in 1989 and its cumulative economic growth over that period has been negative.
2) It argues that economic growth is necessary to solve Ukraine's problems and increase living standards, and that the three pillars supporting fast and sustainable growth are external security, rule of law, and optimal government size.
3) Across countries, larger government size is associated with lower economic growth, with about a 0.1% decline in average annual GDP growth for every 1 percentage point increase in the share of government spending in GDP.
The document summarizes economic indicators and statistics from Spain, the European Union, and other countries:
- In Spain, the regions of Valencia, Madrid, and Catalonia had the highest GDP growth rates in 2015 at 3.6%, 3.4%, and 3.3% respectively, while over 69% of social benefits in December 2015 were contributory pensions.
- In the EU, public spending on social protection increased from 45.6% to 50% of GDP from 2007-2009 during the economic crisis but decreased to 48.2% from 2009-2014 under restrictive fiscal policies.
- In the US, GDP grew 2.4% in 2015 due mostly to consumer spending, while the Fed kept
Lekcija: Pasaules tautsaimniecības izaicinājumi un perspektīvas Latvijas Banka
Pasaules ekonomikas un lielāko pasaules valstu ekonomiku attīstības prognozes, balstoties uz jaunāko Starptautiskā Valūtas fonda veikto analīzi. Aktuālie jautājumi un būtiskākie riski ekonomikas attīstībai. Ieteikumi politikas veidotājiem. Diskusija ar studentu jautājumiem un lektora atbildēm.
Повномасштабна війна Росії проти України вплинула на всі економічні та суспільні процеси в державі. В тому числі, на реформу децентралізації, яка була однією із найбільш успішних та популярних реформ в Україні. Війна принесла нові виклики для громад та для центральної влади, і подолати ці випробування можна лише шляхом спільної роботи, що показати практикою 2022 року. Водночас, ведення війни та планування післявоєнної розбудови потребують змін у розподілі повноважень між центральною владою та місцевим самоврядуванням.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive functioning. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
-Нинішня економічна політика в Україні є похідною від економічної системи і націлена на обслуговування інтересів окремих груп. Люди, що отримують ресурс у вигляді влади, конвертують його у свої доходи. Економічна політика в цій системі служить інструментом підтримки електоральних переваг через популізм та соціальні гарантії, які люди отримують без відповіді на питання – «як збільшити добробут населення».
Yakoyu maye buty zovnishnya polityka Ukrainy.pdfUIFuture
2022-й рік можна вважати одним з найскладніших в історії нашої держави. Ми пережили перший шок від початку повномасштабної агресії РФ, втратили частину територій, оговталися, повернули частину територій, адаптувалися до потреб війни та увійшли у період війни на виснаження. Щоправда, ще рано говорити про кінець війни, попереду — не менші виклики, адже перемогти у війні — це лише одна задача, яка нині стоїть перед нами. Інша задача — перемогти у боротьбі за післявоєнний мир. Іншими словами, здобути не просто військову, але й гуманітарну перемогу.
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<p>У доповіді ви дізнаєтеся:<br>- Якою може бути післявоєнна енергетика України? <br>- Що визначатиме майбутнє української енергетики?<br>- Яких помилок та проблем із минулого потрібно уникнути створюючи енергетику майбутнього?</p>
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У доповіді ви дізнаєтеся:
- Якою може бути післявоєнна енергетика України?
- Що визначатиме майбутнє української енергетики?
- Яких помилок та проблем із минулого потрібно уникнути створюючи енергетику майбутнього?
Післявоєнне відновлення – головний виклик для нашої нації. У новій доповіді експерти UIF проаналізували, які фактори стали ключовими для успіху інших країн; що завадило ряду країн досягти успіху; як досвід інших країн може допомогти Україні уникнути помилок та як використати кращий досвід країн.
Еще год назад невозможно было представить, как одни незнакомые россияне целенаправленно направляют ракеты на украинские жилые дома, а другие незнакомые россияне захлебываются от счастья в соцсетях, если удалось сильно повредить или кого-то убить. Конечно, за год к этому все привыкли, однако вопрос, который все себе задавали 24 февраля, остался до сих пор актуальным: а почему россияне все это делают?
Еще год назад невозможно было представить, как одни незнакомые россияне целенаправленно направляют ракеты на украинские жилые дома, а другие незнакомые россияне захлебываются от счастья в соцсетях, если удалось сильно повредить или кого-то убить. Конечно, за год к этому все привыкли, однако вопрос, который все себе задавали 24 февраля, остался до сих пор актуальным: а почему россияне все это делают?
Ще рік тому неможливо було уявити, як одні незнайомі росіяни цілеспрямовано скеровують ракети на українські житлові будинки, а інші незнайомі росіяни захлинаються від щастя в соцмережах, якщо вдалось щось сильно пошкодити чи когось вбити. Звичайно, за рік до цього всі звикли, проте питання, яке всі собі задавали 24 лютого, залишилося й досі актуальним: а чому росіяни все це роблять?
Український інститут майбутнього – це незалежний аналітичний центр, який:
• прогнозує зміни та моделює можливі сценарії розвитку подій в Україні;
• надає компетентну оцінку українським подіям;
• формулює конкретні рекомендації до дій;
• пропонує ефективні рішення;
• пропонує майданчик для дискусій на актуальні теми.
Є спільним проектом представників українського бізнесу, політики та громадського сектору.
Заснований влітку 2016 року.
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<p>Світ знаходиться на порозі стагфляції, ключові центробанки підвищують процентні ставки з метою стримування інфляції. Розвинені економіки світу входять в рецесію, зокрема економіка США увійшла в рецесію в І-му півріччі 2022 року, аналітики прогнозують зниження ВВП Єврозони з 4 кварталу 2022 року. </p>
<!-- /wp:paragraph -->
<!-- wp:paragraph -->
<p>На Європу насувається енергетична криза, що разом з високою інфляцією викликає невдоволення населення та протести.</p>
<!-- /wp:paragraph -->
<!-- wp:paragraph -->
<p>Країни Заходу дедалі більше концентруються на власних проблемах, шукаючи порятунок від шторму економічної та енергетичної кризи. </p>
<!-- /wp:paragraph -->
<!-- wp:paragraph -->
<p>До кінця 2022 року в США відбудуться проміжні вибори до Конгресу, а у Італії – парламентські вибори. Штати та Іран планують підписати «ядерну угоду», що розблокує іранську нафту. Все це опосередковано матиме вплив і на Україну.</p>
<!-- /wp:paragraph -->
<!-- wp:paragraph -->
<p>То що ж чекає на українську економіку до кінця року за таких умов? Дізнавайтеся у доповіді Українського інституту майбутнього!</p>
<!-- /wp:paragraph -->
<!-- wp:paragraph -->
<p>Світ знаходиться на порозі стагфляції, ключові центробанки підвищують процентні ставки з метою стримування інфляції. Розвинені економіки світу входять в рецесію, зокрема економіка США увійшла в рецесію в І-му півріччі 2022 року, аналітики прогнозують зниження ВВП Єврозони з 4 кварталу 2022 року. </p>
<!-- /wp:paragraph -->
<!-- wp:paragraph -->
<p>На Європу насувається енергетична криза, що разом з високою інфляцією викликає невдоволення населення та протести.</p>
<!-- /wp:paragraph -->
<!-- wp:paragraph -->
<p>Країни Заходу дедалі більше концентруються на власних проблемах, шукаючи порятунок від шторму економічної та енергетичної кризи. </p>
<!-- /wp:paragraph -->
<!-- wp:paragraph -->
<p>До кінця 2022 року в США відбудуться проміжні вибори до Конгресу, а у Італії – парламентські вибори. Штати та Іран планують підписати «ядерну угоду», що розблокує іранську нафту. Все це опосередковано матиме вплив і на Україну.</p>
<!-- /wp:paragraph -->
<!-- wp:paragraph -->
<p>То що ж чекає на українську економіку до кінця року за таких умов? Дізнавайтеся у доповіді Українського інституту майбутнього!</p>
<!-- /wp:paragraph -->
У цьому документі йдеться про гуманітарну політику як сферу, що забезпечує комплексний розвиток людини і суспільства. Розвиток на противагу виживанню означає вихід на новий рівень спроможності, організаційної складності, можливостей. Виживання – переважно про збереження статусу-кво, розвиток – про формування власних амбітних візій і прагматичних цілей для їх досягнення. Наявність власного бачення розвитку, переконливої історії плюс мобілізація ресурсів на досягнення мети є тим моментом, що відрізняє суб’єктну націю від суспільних утворень, які стають розмінною фігурою у стратегіях інших гравців.
У цьому документі йдеться про гуманітарну політику як сферу, що забезпечує комплексний розвиток людини і суспільства. Розвиток на противагу виживанню означає вихід на новий рівень спроможності, організаційної складності, можливостей. Виживання – переважно про збереження статусу-кво, розвиток – про формування власних амбітних візій і прагматичних цілей для їх досягнення. Наявність власного бачення розвитку, переконливої історії плюс мобілізація ресурсів на досягнення мети є тим моментом, що відрізняє суб’єктну націю від суспільних утворень, які стають розмінною фігурою у стратегіях інших гравців.
Sangyun Lee, 'Why Korea's Merger Control Occasionally Fails: A Public Choice ...Sangyun Lee
Presentation slides for a session held on June 4, 2024, at Kyoto University. This presentation is based on the presenter’s recent paper, coauthored with Hwang Lee, Professor, Korea University, with the same title, published in the Journal of Business Administration & Law, Volume 34, No. 2 (April 2024). The paper, written in Korean, is available at <https://shorturl.at/GCWcI>.
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Receivership and liquidation Accounts
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Business law for the students of undergraduate level. The presentation contains the summary of all the chapters under the syllabus of State University, Contract Act, Sale of Goods Act, Negotiable Instrument Act, Partnership Act, Limited Liability Act, Consumer Protection Act.
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The legal profession, which has historically been male-dominated, has experienced a significant increase in the number of women entering the field over the past few decades. Despite this progress, women lawyers continue to encounter various challenges as they strive for top positions.
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Report 25 years_amelim-en (1)
1. 25 РОКІВ НЕЗАЛЕЖНОСТІ УКРАЇНИ: Економічні підсумки
Report
by Anatoliy Amelin
Kyiv, 2016
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE:
Economic summary
“If you don't have your own strategy —
you are influenced by others tactics”
2. Anatoliy Amelin
Head of Economic Programs at Ukrainian Institute For The Future,
former member of National Securities and Stock Market Commission,
Founder of think-tank “Amelin Strategy”
25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
This paper aims at summarizing and demonstrating those changes (both economic and
social) which took place in Ukraine within last 25 years – in comparison to other post-soviet
countries.
This summary reflects the path we all have covered, the starting point for setting objec-
tives for the future, and the evaluation of the path we yet have to travel through.
Which goals have been put by Ukraine’s authorities in 1991, or in 2001? Does anyone know? Those
were local goals which originated from the need to solve local, current problems of that time:
coping with inflation, setting our own currency circulation, performing privatization, etc. But the
absence of an overarching goal and a strategic plan has resulted in what we are facing now.
3. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
During the years of independence Ukraine’s competitive positions in multiple international
rankings has significantly deteriorated. For example, in 1992 Ukraine ranked 54th in human de-
velopment index. In 2015 Ukraine ranks only 82nd. Similar dynamics can be observed also in
terms of other measurements: index of economic freedom, corruption perceptions index, and
global competitiveness index. Due to absence of a clear development strategy Ukraine lags be-
hind its neighbors which were amongst Eastern bloc as well.
Ukraine
Ukraine's posiƟons in many raƟngs worsened
Index of human potenƟal development
Index of economic independence
54 82
1992 2015
95 162
1995 2016
Poland Czech Republic
51 36 38 28
51 39 23 21
Index of corrupƟon percepƟon
Global compeƟƟveness index
Index of Ease of doing business
(Doing Business)
69
1998
130
2015
69
2001
79
2015
124
2005
83
2015
39 31 37 38
41 3141 37
54 25 41 36
Index of world override
(The World Bank)
151 146
1996 2014
60 3842 28
1992 19922015 2015
1995 2016 1995 2016
1996 2014 1996 2014
1998 19982015 2015
2001 20012015 2015
2005 20052015 2015
3
4. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
In 1991 Ukraine ranked 60th in the world by GDP (PPP) per capita. At that time this indica-
tor reached USD 6.4 thousand, which was average for Central and Eastern Europe. For all the time
till 2015 GDP per capita in Ukraine increased only by 24%, while in Poland, Hungary, Czech Repub-
lic it more than doubled.
During 25 years of independence Ukraine showed one of
the worst dynamics of economic development. Other
emerging market countries had significant progress
Ukraine’s rank on GDP per capita, PPP
$5.740
$6.353
$6.403
$6.757
$6.831
Poland
Mexico
SAR
Uruguay
Brazilia
Average - World
Average – Central Europe
57
58
Ukraine
59
60
61
62
Azerbaijan63
$6.711
$5.585
$6.470
$5.589
$15.359
$21.201
$13.165
$7.916
$17.277
$26.135
$17.740
$15.464
$25.295
+125%
+214%
+96%
+24%
+172%
+355%
+219%
+291%
+177%
1991 year 2015 year
4
5. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
As the graph shows, Ukraine lagged behind not only Poland but also Belarus which had
worse preconditions and resources for development.
Place of Ukraine in world economy: significant decline
during 25 years.
GDP per capita, all countries.
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
101
106
111
116
121
126
131
136
141
146
151
156
161
166
171
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
110 000
120 000
130 000
140 000
150 000
160 000
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
101
106
111
116
121
126
131
136
141
146
151
156
161
166
171
Ukraine
$6.403
1991 year
2015 year
Ukraine
$7.916
Ukraine
Ukraine
Poland
Poland
Belarus
Belarus
5
6. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
If we compare former Soviet republics, by the level of GDP per capita Ukraine is as of
today in the same group with Moldova and countries of Central Asia. Among former Soviet re-
publics, average monthly wage in USD equivalent is lower than in Ukraine only in Tajikistan.
GPD per capita, PPP
Ukraine is behind many countries of former Soviet Union
on GPD per capita
0,0
5 000,0
10 000,0
15 000,0
20 000,0
25 000,0
30 000,0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
USD
Ukraine
Russia
Belarus
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Moldova
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Countries, with
hydrocarbons extracƟon
economies
Belarus was behind Ukraine in 90’s, but
starƟng from 1996 took a place of stable
economic growth
Ukraine is now in the same group
together with Moldova, Tajikistan and
Kyrgystan
6
7. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Dynamic of average wage level, USD
Among former USSR republics, average wage level in
Ukraine outperforms only Tajikistan
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
USD
Ukraine
Russia
Belarus
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Moldova
Estonia
Level of salary in Ukraine is higher only than
those in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan
7
8. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Lack of efficient economic reforms led to a severer decrease of purchasing power of
Ukrainians comparing to other former Soviet republics’ citizens. In 2015 average monthly salary
in Ukraine allows to purchase 2 times less beef compared to that of 1991 – 56 kg instead of 118
kg. In Russia this figure decreased only 1.5 times, and in Belarus, by contrast, it grew by 4 per cent.
Average monthly salary, USD
Purchasing power of Ukrainians decreased more
significantly than that of other former Soviet republic
Weight of beef can be purchased on average
monthly salary, kg
0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 1 000,0 1 200,0 1 400,0
Ukraine
0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0
Ukraine
2 кв. 2015
1990
Belarus
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Moldova
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Russia
Belarus
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Moldova
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Russia
8
9. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Economic difficulties forced Ukrainians to travel abroad in search of a higher income. The
share of workers’ remittances in GDP of Ukraine increased from 0.01 per cent in 1996 to 6.61 per
cent in 2015. Latvia, Poland and Hungary went through the same path. But Poland, having man-
aged to improve the economic situation, broke the negative trend: as according to 2015 results,
contribution of Polish migrant workers to GDP is 1.5 per cent, whereas in 2006 this figure was
2.5 per cent.
Share of remittances from abroad, GPD
The share of workers remiƩances in GPD of Ukraine
increased significantly
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
7,0%
8,0%
9,0%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Belarus
Ukrainians are forced to travel abroad in
search of a higher income..
Latvia, Poland and Hungary went through
the same path.
But Poland having managed to improve the
economic situaƟon broke the negaƟve
trend.
Czech Republic
Russian FederaƟon
9
10. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
The population of Ukraine decreased significantly - by 13.1 per cent compared with 1991.
Ukraine follows same path as Latvia did, where the population decreased by 25.4 per cent. If
Ukraine does not manage to improve the welfare of citizens, further reduction of population due
to migration will take place. Depopulation may become a significant issue.
Population change(1991 year is taken as a basis )
The populaƟon of Ukraine decreased significantly
70,0%
75,0%
80,0%
85,0%
90,0%
95,0%
100,0%
105,0%
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Belarus
Ukraine follows the same path as Latvia.
If Ukraine does not manage to improve the welfare of
ciƟzens, further reducƟon of populaƟon due to migraƟon
will take place.
DepopulaƟon may become a significant issue.
Czech Republic
Russian FederaƟon
10
11. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Domestic savings rate is extremely low in Ukraine compared to its neighbors - only 13.3
per cent of GDP, while in Poland - 23.3 per cent, Czech Republic - 33.1 per cent, in Belarus - 31.0
per cent. Due to high level of risks Ukrainians are unwilling to invest in banking system or busi-
ness development.
Level of savings is very low in Ukraine compared
to its neighbors.
Share of national savings in GPD
Source: World Bank
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
%
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Belarus
Since 2005 level of naƟonal savings has been gradually
decreasing. Increase of this indicator during 2014-2015 is
derived from GPD decrease while the level of savings
remained the same.
Due to a high level of risks Ukrainians are unwilling to
invest money into the banking system or business
development.
Czech Republic
Russian FederaƟon
11
12. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Lifetime of Ukrainians is less than in those countries which have become part of the EU.
In Ukraine, the average life expectancy at birth is 71 years, in Latvia - 74 years, in Estonia -
77 years. One reason for the relatively low life expectancy in Ukraine is a low level of social ac-
tivity of older people due to poverty.
Average lifeƟme expectancy at birth
LifeƟme expectancy of Ukrainians slightly grew but much
slower than in other countries of the former USSR
62,0
64,0
66,0
68,0
70,0
72,0
74,0
76,0
78,0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
років
Ukraine
Russia
Belarus
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
Latvia
Estonia
LifeƟme of Ukrainians is less than in those countries
which have become part of the EU. In Ukraine the
average lifeƟme expectancy at birth is 71 years, in Latvia –
74 years, in Estonia – 77 years. One reason for the
relaƟvely low lifeƟme expectancy in Ukraine is a low level
of social a Ɵ i d h
12
13. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Ukraine is one of the countries with most disappointed and unhappy people. In the index
of happiness it is ranked 123rd in the world, while the Czech Republic is 27th, Poland - 57th,
Latvia – 68th. Main reasons for this situation in Ukraine are limited degree of freedom in mak-
ing important decisions in life, low income, and prevalence of corruption.
World Happiness Report
Ukraine is one of the countries with the most disappointed
and unhappy people.
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
2005-2007 2010-2012 2012-2014 2013-2015
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Russia
Belarus
Happiness index includes such indicators as citizen’s welfare (GPD per capita), level of social support of the society, hea
Czech Republic
13
14. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Information below dwells upon other reasons explaining why Ukraine is lagging on many
indicators comparing to neighboring countries and countries of the former USSR.
Lack of sufficient investment in technological sectors has led to increased connection
between real GDP growth and Commodity Price Index. Those countries which are more suc-
cessful, in particular Poland and Belarus, do not have any substantial dependence on row cycle
time. At the same time Ukraine is susceptible to downturns, which is provoked by the volatility
in the markets of raw materials.
Comparison of GPD growth with Commodity Price Index
-100,0%
-50,0%
0,0%
50,0%
100,0%
150,0%
200,0%
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
RealGDPgrowthrate
-40,0%
-20,0%
0,0%
20,0%
40,0%
60,0%
80,0%
100,0%
120,0%
140,0%
160,0%
CommodityPriceIndex
Poland
Hungary
Ukraine
Russia
Belarus
Commodity
Price Index
2007
2009999
20111
2013
20111015
ConnecƟon between real GPD growth and
Commodity Price index in Ukraine
increased starƟng from 2006.
Those countries which are more
successful, in parƟcular Poland and
Belarus, do not have any substanƟal
dependence on row cycle Ɵme.
At the same Ɵme Ukraine is suscepƟble to
downturns, which is provoked by the
volaƟlity in the markets of the raw
materials.
14
15. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Predominantly commodity-driven production has led to relatively slow growth of Ukrain-
ian export, it tripled compared to 1994, while in the Czech Republic it increased by 8 times, in
Poland - 10 times, in Belarus - 12 times. As a result, Ukraine significantly lagged behind these
countries in terms of economic development.
Export is an important factor through which developing countries are able to increase
their wealth. By exporting goods we import middle class which eventually becomes the driving
force of the internal market development.
Ukraine lost in global competition in goods markets and also in the competition for the
investors in the investment market. The first is a consequence of the second.
Export dynamics (1994 as basis)
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
20,0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
%
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Russia
Belarus
Membership at WTO
Growth of export is considered to be an
important factor of economic growth of
developing countries.
Ukrainian export increased slower than
that of most neighboring countries.
As a result, Ukraine has significantly
lagged behind in terms of level of
economic development.
Global financial
crisis
Початок АТО
Ukrainian export increase rate is lower than in other
countries of the world. Becoming a member of WTO
hasn't brought Ukraine benefits
World average
Czech Republic
15
16. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
The main reason associated with growth of Polish export is attracting of the significant
amount of foreign investment, which allowed upgrading of the industrial production base.
In the early 90`s the Law on Foreign Investment was accepted, which abolished restric-
tions on foreign citizens’ share in companies’ equity, and provided tax allowances for foreign in-
vestors (in areas with high unemployment tax perks were higher). In 1995-2001, 15 free trade
zones were established in Poland, 14 of which still work. As of 2015, USD 34 billion of investments
(by the average rate for the years 1995-2015) was attracted in free economic zones. Over the past
20 years 2700 investment permissions were issued and 300 thousand people found a job.
Joining the EU was another impetus for the development of Polish export. Since the be-
ginning of membership in the EU (2004) Poland received more than EUR 100 billion aid through
various programs aimed at improving living standards and competitiveness of the Polish econ-
omy.
While joining the EU, Polish government has managed to receive subsidies to encourage
agricultural development. Specifically, during the first year of EU membership EUR 1.5 billion sub-
sidy was allocated into the agricultural sector, and in 2013 – EUR 5.2 billion of subsidies. Inside
the EU budget for the years 2012-2020, EUR 31.2 billion (about 4.5 billion annually) is factored for
the support of Polish agriculture. As a result of such support from the EU, foodstuff became
one of the key items of Polish exports.
16
Briefcase.
Polish export.
17. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Due to insufficient investment, Ukrainian goods turned out to be uncompetitive.
Production of gasoline decreased by 41.3 per cent comparing to that of 1991. Currently,
gasoline is imported from Belarus and Lithuania. Production of textiles decreased almost
by 92 per cent. Currently textiles and textile products are imported from China and Turkey.
Production of cars went down by 96 per cent. One of the main countries of cars import
is Slovakia, where almost 4 per cent of population works in automotive and relating
industry.
Decrease of manufacturing of some goods(2015, compared to 1991)
-53.6%
-21.2%
-41.3%
-13.6%
-63.1%
-95.7%
-91.8%
-100.0%
-90.0%
-80.0%
-70.0%
-60.0%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
Crude oil and
gas-condensate
production
Natural gas
production
GasolineChemical
fertilizers
Rolled ferrous
metal products
CarsTextiles
Ukrainian goods turned out to be uncompeƟƟve.
Currently texƟles and texƟle products are imported
from China and Turkey, which is a main item of
export of these countries.
Chemical ferƟlizers are imported from countries of
Customs Unit.
Car industry is a backbone of the economy of
Slovakia.
Ukraine lost in global compeƟƟon for goods markets, and
domesƟc manufacturers were replaced by imported goods
17
18. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Belarus was able to modernize its refineries due to investments. During 2005-2015, 29
nvestment projects worth USD 1.3 billion were implemented in the country’s refineries. Nowadays
Belarusian fuel Euro-4 and Euro-5 is exported to EU countries. Export of light oil products
constitutes 30 per cent of total country’s exports.
Complexity index indicating Belarusian refineries’ capability (known as Nelson complexity
index) exceeds the European average. Despite the achieved position in the market, development
does not stop. JSC “Mozyr Oil Refinery” is investing USD 1.4 bn. in the project aimed at increasing
the depth of oil refining from 78 to 89 per cent.
The Belarusian State Concern for Oil and Chemistry (Belneftekhim Concern) created an
nnovation fund which provides funding for innovative projects, R&D, and production of new or
improved products. Selection of projects is carried out through the open competition process.
During 2015, USD 2.1 million was invested.
The National Bank of Ukraine policy hasn’t contributed to the development of exports
neither, which was aimed at keeping the exchange rate of the hryvnia against foreign curren-
cies fixed (and unreasonably high) by the usage of restrictions on exporters, and usage of
foreign exchange reserves.
18
Briefcase.
Crude oil refining in Belarus.
19. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
National manufacturers are not very active in improving quality management. In Ukraine,
there are 3 ISO 9001 per USD 1 bn. Of GDP, whereas in Moldova - 7, in Poland - 12, Latvia - 20.
As a result, export opportunities for Ukrainian businesses are not as favorable as for those of
the neighboring countries.
Quantity of ISO 9001 certificates per $1billion GPD in 2014
QuanƟty of ISO cerƟficates is ten Ɵmes higher in
those countries which occupy a significant share of
export markets, compared to Ukraine.
Ukraine significantly lags behind even Moldova.
Poland
Latvia
Slovakia
Israel
Czech Republic4
6
Ukraine
8
71
18
38
Hungary10
41,88
32,56
30,05
28,04
20,70
10,01
3,53
Italy1 79,12
Moldova50 6,92
19
20. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Ukraine is getting behind in terms of products competitiveness and is losing foreign mar-
kets. Out of CIS countries only Turkmenistan is ahead of Ukraine in terms of electricity con-
sumption. Energy efficiency of the western neighbors of our country (Poland, Czech Republic, and
Hungary) is twice higher compared to that of Ukraine. Reduction of energy consumption in
Ukraine is observed since 1997, but the extent of this process is not sufficient to reach the level
of the EU countries.
Energy efficiency (use of energy as 1 kg of oil equivalent per USD 1000 of GDP )
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Belarus
Hungary
Kazakhstan
Moldova
Poland
Turkmenistan
Ukraine
Trend is posiƟve, but Ukraine is
significantly behind its
compeƟtors in terms of energy
efficiency
Out of CIS countries only
Turkmenistan is ahead of
Ukraine in terms of electricity
consumpƟon.
1kgofoilequivalentperUSD1000ofGDP
Russian FederaƟon
Czech Republic
20
21. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Since 2005 Ukraine's net export is negative due to substantial import (including energy
resources) and instability in exports. It leads to depreciation of the national currency and
decrease of economic development indicators in dollar equivalent, supported by volatility
in commodity prices. Therefore crisis effects of the global economy are difficult to endure
for Ukraine.
Share of net export of goods and services in GDP
-25,0%
-20,0%
-15,0%
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Belarus
.
Since 2005 Ukraine net export is negaƟve due to
substanƟal import (including energy resources) and
instability in exports. It leads to depreciaƟon of the
naƟonal currency and decrease of economic
development indicators in dollar equivalent,
supported by volaƟlity in commodity prices.
Therefore crisis effects of the global economy are
difficult to endure for Ukraine.
Russian federaƟon
Czech republic
21
22. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Export structure characterizes Ukraine’s role in the global environment as a supplier of
agricultural products. The share of agricultural products in Ukrainian exports increased almost
4 times during last 14 years.
Commodity composition of the Ukrainian export
Structure of export places Ukraine posiƟon in the global
world as a provider of agriculture products
2015 р.
31%
8%
7%25%
13%
14%
2%
Agriculture
Mining industry
Chemical industry
Iron and steel industry
Engineering industry
Consumer goods
manufacturing
Other
2001 р.
8%
11%
11%
42%
14%
4%
10%
The share of agricultural products in
Ukrainian exports increased almost 4
Ɵmes during last 14 years.
22
23. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Ukraine transforms from being industrial country into an agricultural one, while other
countries are aimed at developing other sectors of economy. Thus, the share of agriculture in
gross value added in Ukraine in 2015 amounted to 14 per cent, while in Belarus - 7.8, Poland - 2.8,
Czech Republic - 2.4 per cent.
Share of agriculture in gross value added
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
16,0%
18,0%
20,0%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Poland
Ukraine
Belarus
Ukraine transforms from being
industrial country into an agricultural
one, while other countries are aimed at
developing other sectors of economy.
Russian FederaƟon
Czech Republic
23
24. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
The share of employment in agriculture is higher in Ukraine comparing to the neighbor-
ing countries. At the same time wages in the Ukrainian agricultural sector are at around 30 per
cent below average.
Labor efficiency in the Ukrainian agriculture remains low. Thus, in Ukraine one agricul-
tural sector employee accounts for USD 6.3 thousand in value added, while in Russia – USD 11.6
thousand, in the Czech Republic – USD 12.4 thousand, in Belarus – USD 15.8 thousand. Labor effi-
ciency in the Ukrainian agricultural sector increases slowly, indicating that the development
mainly relies on extensive factors instead of intensification of production. Without investment
in agricultural sector and intensification of agricultural production we are going to lose the com-
petition even here.
Share of employment in agriculture
0
5
10
15
20
25
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
%
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
The share of employment in agriculture is
higher in Ukraine comparing to the
neighboring countries. At the same Ɵme
wages in the Ukrainian agricultural sector are
at around 30 per cent below average.
Russia
Czech Republic
24
25. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Czech Republic is among leaders in labor efficiency in agriculture and is almost twice
ahead of Ukraine.
Main success factor of farmers from the Czech Republic is that of active support meas-
ures towards agricultural sector from the state.
he implementation of government agricultural support policy is conducted by the State
Agricultural Intervention Fund, which performs the following tasks:
iinntteerrvveennttiioonn ppuurrcchhaasseess ooff aaggrriiccuullttuurraall pprroodduuccttss,, aaiimmeedd aatt ccoouunntteerriinngg ppoossssiibbllee ddoowwnnttuurrnnss iinn mmaarrkkeett pprriicceess;;
eexxppoorrtt ssuubbssiiddyy,, ii..ee.. ssuubbssiiddyy ssuuppppoorrtt ttoo pprroodduucceerrss ooff aaggrriiccuullttuurraall pprroodduuccttss ffoorr eexxppoorrtt;;
ssuuppppoorrtt ooff tthhee lleeaasstt ddeevveellooppeedd rreeggiioonnss;;
ssuuppppoorrtt ffoorr tthhee ccuullttiivvaattiioonn ooff eenneerrggyy ccrrooppss,, aanndd eennvviirroonnmmeennttaallllyy ffrriieennddllyy aaggrriiccuullttuurraall pprroodduuccttiioonn..
The Fund’s budget is filled from the following sources: state budget, revenue from sales
of interventional products, subsidies from EU funds, loans, received penalties, and other.
Programs implemented:
““RRuurraall DDeevveellooppmmeenntt PPrrooggrraamm ffoorr 22000077--22001133””,, wwiitthh tthhee aaiimm ttoo iinnccrreeaassee tthhee ccoommppeettiittiivveenneessss ooff ggooooddss aanndd sseerrvv--
iicceess pprroodduucceedd iinn rruurraall aarreeaass,, aanndd iimmpprroovviinngg llaabboorr eeffffiicciieennccyy iinn aaggrriiccuullttuurree;;
iinnvveessttmmeenntt pprrooggrraamm ““FFaarrmmeerr””,, wwiitthh tthhee aaiimm ttoo hheellpp aaggrriibbuussiinneessss iinn ppuurrcchhaassiinngg ooff eennggiinneeeerriinngg eeqquuiippmmeenntt;;
iinnvveessttmmeenntt pprrooggrraamm ““EEaarrtthh”” wwhhiicchh pprroommootteess tthhee aaccqquuiissiittiioonn ooff llaanndd iinn oorrddeerr ttoo ffuurrtthheerr iimmpplleemmeenntt aaggrriiccuullttuurraall
pprroodduuccttiioonn..
“Program for Rural Development 2014-2020” is currently implemented. The program pro-
vides support for innovation in agricultural sector, strengthening competitiveness of agricul-
tural companies, and other.
Subsidy support of the Czech agricultural exporters is held within the EU Agricultural
Policy. Support for the Czech Republic is carried out in only a few areas of livestock: beef, veal,
eggs, and some kinds of pork. Support for exports of cereals, rice, sugar, and milk is canceled.
We must look at things realistically. Negative aspect of government subsidies may be an
increased dependence of producers from the state. On the other hand, government support
in the Czech Republic has led to a gradual increase in labor efficiency in agribusiness, and to the
improved financial performance of local agricultural companies.
Thus, 2015 was the most successful year for the Czech farmers, whose net profit reached
a record level of CZK 22.9 billion (EUR 0.9 bn.). Also, after years of decline, production of meat
finally increased.
25
Briefcase.
Agricultural sector in the Czech Republic.
26. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Labor efficiency in Ukrainian industry is also significantly lower than in neighboring coun-
tries. Ukrainian industry produces mainly raw products with low added value, and this does not
allow building a society with high living standards.
Added value per 1 employee
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Ukrainian industry produces mainly raw
products with low added value
USDthousand,percapitaperannum
Czech Republic
26
27. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
At the same time there is a significant dependence on imported products of mining
industries, including energy. Import of products of mining industry was 32 per cent of total im-
ports in 2015.
Composition of Ukrainian import
2001р.
3%
44%
12%
5%
21%
4%
11%
2015р.
5%
20%
5%
23%
4%
11%
32%
Agricultural industry
Mining industry
Chemical industry
Ironandsteelindustry
Engineeringindustry
Other
Consumer goods manufacturing
27
28. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Dynamics of gas import and consumption in Ukraine
78%
83%
77%
71%
83%
78%
81%
77%
84%
79%
52%
64%
81%
60%
56%
79%
49%
78%
79%
77%
75%
81%
81%
77%
46%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
Ukraine was forced to import about 80 per cent of
its need of natural gas, despite the great potenƟal
of domesƟc producƟon. Dependence on gas supply
was created arƟficially as a tool to influence the
economy of our country by the main supplier.
71%
MAX - myllyard cubic meters (1975)
ConsumpƟon, myllyard
cubic meters
Share of import, %
For a long time, Ukraine was forced to import about 80 per cent of its need of natural gas,
despite the great potential of domestic production. Every year by 2013 Ukraine spent more than
USD 10 bln. on import of gas from Russia. These funds directly supported Russian economy and
reduced Ukrainian investment resources. Dependence on gas supply was created artificially as
a tool to influence the economy of our country by the main supplier.
In particular, artificial barriers for private players in terms of market access were created.
Even multinational giants which are leaders on technology and have unlimited investment
potential had no access on market. Non-transparent procedure for obtaining special permits,
difficulties with the use of infrastructure, lack of mechanisms to protect investors from power
structures still scare away investors from the oil and gas sector.
28
29. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Ukraine is third in Europe in terms of proven reserves of natural gas, and as of today
Ukraine does not use its own energy potential in full.
European countries by the level of proven
natural gas reserves, 2015, trillion cubic meters
Great Britain
Other European
countries
Netherlands
Ukraine
Romania
0,7
0,6
0,2
0,1
0,3
Norway 1,9
European countries by the level of
production of natural gas reserves, 2015,
trillion cubic meters
Great Britain
Other European
countries
Netherlands
Ukraine
Romania
43,0
19,9
39,7
10,3
28,4
Norway 117,2
Ukraine is third in Europe in terms of proven reserves
of natural gas.
Ukraine does not use its own energy potenƟal, as
other European countries do, such as Great Britain
and Romania
Ukraine has every opportunity for energy
independence. To achieve this, it is needed to:
- aƩract investments in the sector;
- introduce modern exploraƟon techniques;
- improve legislaƟon.
29
30. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Romania’s experience of gas production could be useful for Ukraine. Romanians trans-
ferred the development of oil and gas from land to the Black Sea Shelf. In 2004, 51 per cent
of the Romanian state oil company Petrom was sold to Austrian OMV for USD 700 million.
The arrival of large foreign company strengthened exploration activities.
In 2007, ExxonMobil Corporation was involved for the study of a promising Neptun Block.
Reserves amounted to 80 billion cubic meters of gas. But before that, ExxonMobil attempted to
get the right to explore and develop Prykerchensky Block, which was given an unknown Vanco
Prikerchenskaya company instead of a global giant. So instead of Ukraine investments were
given to Romania. We also remember that sensitive issue on the fact that 40 per cent of gas re-
serves of Neptun was situated on the shelf of Zmiyinyi island, which was successfully taken away
in court by Romania. It is quite possible that the interests of giant business of ExxonMobil played
a key role in that.
In 2012, a consortium of ExxonMobil and Petrom discovered a new gas source Domino-1.
Reserves of the source are estimated at 80 billion cubic meters. Potential production volumes
only in this field are equal to 6-7 bn. cubic meters of gas per annum. The beginning of industrial
exploitation is planned for 2020. The need for investment is USD 1 billion.
During 2008-2015 about EUR 1.5 bn. was invested in exploration on the Romanian Black
Sea shelf.
Currently, gas production in Romania since 2008 is at 10-11 bn. cubic meters. Reduction in
gas consumption led to the plan to refuse from Russian gas import since 2016. Although in 2008
the share of imported gas was 25 per cent of the total volume of consumption.
According to the Wood Mackenzie opinion, new discoveries in Romania will radically change
supply of energy situation in Europe. Romania has all prerequisites to become an exporter of gas.
Romania continues to pursue an active policy of attracting investment in the oil and gas sector
to increase the level of inventories. So the question is: who will be able to win the competition
for investors? A EU country with rental rate from 3.5 to 13.5 per cent (there is also a tax on extra
profits in Romania), or Ukraine, with its risks and rental rates for gas production at 14-29 per cent?
30
Briefcase.
Energy independence of Romania.
31. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Insufficient investment leads to lower economic growth in Ukraine. Without investments
Ukraine will not be able to achieve economic success and build a successful country.
Nominal GDP growth rate (1991 as basis)
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Poland
Hungary
Ukraine
Belarus
Investment in fixed assets renewal growth rate (1991 as basis)
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Poland
Hungary
Ukraine
Belarus
Significant connecƟon between nominal GDP
growth and investment increase is observed.
Without aƩracƟng investments Ukraine will
not be able to achieve economic success.
Russian FederaƟon
Russian FederaƟon
Czech Republic
Czech Republic
31
32. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
The deficit of investment resources primarily has a negative impact on R&D. Low invest-
ment in R&D led to low innovative capacity of Ukrainian enterprises, and as a result – to low
value-added production.
R&D investment as per cent of GDP
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
5,00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Belarus
China
Hungary
Israel
Poland
Ukraine
StarƟng from 2006, a downturn of
research acƟvity is observed in Ukraine.
Low level of investment in R&D causes
week innovaƟon acƟvity of Ukrainian
enterprises
Russian FederaƟon
Czech Republic
32
33. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Israel is an example of a successful innovation policy; in 1993 the State Fund “Yozma” was
founded there. USD 80 million of the fund was invested in venture capital funds established
in partnership with business, and USD 20 million was invested directly in start-up projects through
its subsidiary “Yozma 1”.
During first 3 years of operation, the fund “Yozma 1” invested in at least 15 projects, and
since 1997 the fund began to leave the startups’ business capital. In particular, in 1997 “Yozma”
sold its stake in Bioscience to Johnson & Johnson Corporation for an amount 31 times higher
than the initial investment. And thanks to the IPO of e-SIM “Yozma” received income which was
29 times higher than investment.
As a result of state fund “Yozma” operation, business incubators and centers of commer-
cialization of developments at higher education institutions developed rapidly. The volume of
foreign direct investment in Israel increased from USD 345.6 million in 1991 to USD 11.5 billion
in 2015. Share of high-tech exports increased from 11.3 per cent in 1991 to 16.0 per cent in 2014.
33
Briefcase.
State investment fund in Israel.
34. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
In the ranking of innovation, in 2016 Ukraine ranked 56th in the world, while Moldova ranked
46th, Poland – 39th, Latvia – 34th. Only 26.5 per cent of industrial products in Ukraine are high-
tech, while in Slovakia - 57.9 per cent, in Hungary - 56.1, and in the Czech Republic - 43.2 per cent.
Ranking of innovative economies as
according to Global Innovation Index 2016,
score
Moldova
Poland
Czech Republic
Israel
Switzerland1
21
Ukraine
27
56
39
46
Latvia34
66,28
52,28
49,40
44,33
40,22
38,39
35,72
RF43 38,50
Ranking of R&D organizations and business
entities cooperation as according to Global
Innovation Index 2016, score
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Israel
Finland1
7
Ukraine
35
72
61
71
Czech Republic41
82,80
75,08
54,56
50,00
44,55
41,73
41,71
RF65 43,87
34
35. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
According to BBlloooommbbeerrgg IInnnnoovvaattiioonn IInnddeexx, Switzerland ranks first in the world for innova-
tion in industrial production. The largest share of industrial production in Switzerland belongs to
pharmaceutical industry (21 per cent). It is believed that pharmaceutical industry may become
the driver of Ukraine’s economic development. Investment in R&D, promotion of our products
abroad will reduce dependence on import, increase export of high added value products, and cre-
ate jobs that require highly skilled personnel.
Share of high-tech and medium-high-tech
in industrial production, %
Share of employment in high-tech services,
%
Belarus
Poland
Slovenia
Hungary
Slovakia3
6
Ukraine
9
45
34
37
Czech Republic17
57,93%
56,18%
47,97%
43,24%
33,13%
31,35%
26,49%
Belarus
Poland
Latvia
RF
Israel7
14
Ukraine
24
39
30
33
Czech Republic28
47,68%
44,22%
39,59%
37,85%
36,78%
35,88%
33,74%
Singapore1 69,25% Luxemburg1 62,30%
35
Briefcase.
Switzerland – pharmaceuticals.
36. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Expensive credits reduce investment opportunities and business development. In 2015
average credit rate in Ukraine was 21.8 per cent, while in Moldova - 14.1, in Georgia - 12.5,
Belarus - 4.3 per cent. Historically, the lowest lending rates in Ukraine correspond roughly
to highest rates in Russia.
Average credit rates
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
45,0
50,0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
%
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Poland
Latvia
Moldova
Georgia
Armenia
Ukraine
Historically, the lowest lending rates in
Ukraine correspond roughly to highest rates
in Russia.
Russian FederaƟon
Czech Republic
36
37. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Ukraine’s external debt reached record level: in 2015 gross external debt amounted to
131.9 per cent of GDP, and foreign debt – to 38.1 per cent of GDP. Credit funds attracted by state
were mainly used to cover budget deficit. Spending loans for consumption complicates the gen-
eration of funds for their repay. Since 2008 Ukraine is in condition very close to national bank-
ruptcy, and this negatively affects our investment attractiveness.
Since 2008 Ukraine is close to default. There is a lack of foreign currency to pay foreign
debts. Market of borrowing is closed for domestic companies, and a significant devaluation took
place. Basically for about 8 years we have been tolerating the consequences of default, but the
default was not announced and we are left with exorbitant debt and dependence on foreign
donors.
External debt/GDP ratio
0,0%
20,0%
40,0%
60,0%
80,0%
100,0%
120,0%
140,0%
160,0%
180,0%
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Gross external debt
Credit funds aƩracted by state were mainly
used to cover budget deficit. Spending loans
for consumpƟon complicates the generaƟon
of funds for their repay. Since 2008 Ukraine is
in condiƟon very close to naƟonal
bankruptcy, and this negaƟvely affects our
investment aƩracƟveness.
Foreign naƟonal and
state-guaranteed debt
37
38. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Investing in Ukraine is traditionally considered as of high risk. Ukraine is uncompetitive
in terms of attracting investments as compared to other countries. Based on the level of
sovereignty risk, the Czech Republic is 14 times more attractive than Ukraine.
Premium for sovereign risk
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
16,0%
18,0%
20,0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Poland
Latvia
Moldova
Georgia
Armenia
Ukraine
Turkmenistan
Based on the level of
sovereign risk, the Czech
Republic is 14 Ɵmes
more aƩracƟve than
Ukraine.
Ukraine is uncompeƟƟve
in terms of aƩracƟng
investments as compared to
other countries.
Russian FederaƟon
Czech Republic
Investment in Ukraine is tradiƟonally considered
as high-risk.
38
39. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Ukraine failed to build a full-fledged market economy of a Western type. Since 2005,
Ukraine was unable to raise the level of economic freedom, which should increase investment
attractiveness. Change of authorities at the highest state level over the 10 years did not bring
any change.
Economic Freedom Index
35,0
40,0
45,0
50,0
55,0
60,0
65,0
70,0
75,0
80,0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Poland
Hungary
Latvia
Ukraine
Belarus
Presidents of Ukraine:
L. Kuchma V.Yushchenko V.Yanukovych P. Poroshenko
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Since 2005, Ukraine was unable to raise the level of economic freedom,
which should increase investment aƩracƟveness.
Change of authoriƟes at the highest state level over the 10 years did
not bring any change.
Russian Federation
Czech Republic
39
40. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Due to the lack of reform the level of corruption in Ukraine remains unchanged for many
years. According to the Corruption Perception Index, Ukraine significantly lags behind Poland,
the Czech Republic, Latvia, and Hungary. More than half of Ukrainian enterprises face cases
of corruption.
Corruption Perceptions Index
Presidents of Ukraine: L. Kuchma V.Yushchenko V.Yanukovych P.Poroshenko
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Belarus
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
No progress in terms of fighƟng corrupƟon is observed, which
has a negaƟve impact not only over the economy but also on the
feeling of happiness of Ukrainians
Czech Republic
Russian FederaƟon
40
41. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
According to local media, in the Czech Republic those businesses which operate in good
faith are likely to face a tax audit once in 150 years (according to TTeerrrriinnvveesstt).
Share of companies which at least once were demanded to pay a bribe
Poland
Hungary
Czech
republic
Latvia
RF
Ukraine
1,8%
2,1%
3,5%
3,5%
14,2%
Belarus 8,9%
50,4%
41
42. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Constantly changing rules and policies discourage business investment in Ukraine
and make it impossible to develop and implement an economic development strategy.
Quality of regulatory policy is traditionally low.
Regulative Policy Quality Index
-2,50
-2,00
-1,50
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Belarus
-2,50
-2,00
-1,50
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
4
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Ukraine
Belarus
V. Yuschenko V. YanukovychL. Kuchma
L.Kuchma
Presidents of Ukraine:
Presidents of Ukraine:
Index of political stable
V. Yuschenko V. Yanukovych P. Poroshenko
4
P.Poroshenko
Constantly changing regulaƟons and
policies discourage business investment
in Ukraine and make it impossible to
develop and implement an economic
development strategy.
Russian FederaƟon
Russian FederaƟon
Czech Republic
Czech Republic
42
43. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
Average term of prime minister’s work in Ukraine is around 1 year. In such conditions state
officials cannot fully take care of the welfare of citizens and development of the national
economy in the long run.
Amount of prime-ministers during 1991-2016
16
12
15 15
24
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Poland Czech
Republic
Latvia Russian
Federation
Ukraine Belarus
Average term of prime minister's work
in Ukraine is around 1 yea.
43
44. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
At enterprise level, frequent changes of management leads to confusion in management
policy, reduction of operational effectiveness and as consequence – in a decline of capitaliza-
tion and bankruptcy. Same happens at the state level: countries without their own development
strategy lose their capitalization and go bankrupt. We have calculated simulated capitalization
of the imaginary company “State of Ukraine”. According to a graph, today Ukraine with its level
of capitalization stays at the level of years 1999-2000. Inefficient public management and lack
of strategy does not allow the country to move forward and increase its own value in the eyes
of potential investors. In order to make effective changes the country needs to rethink its
future path of development and change approaches to public policy.
Conditional rate of capitalization of imaginary company named“State “Ukraine”*
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
USDbillion
Minimum
level since
1991
44
45. 25 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: Economic summary
HHooww II sseeee UUkkrraaiinnee iinn 1100 yyeeaarrss??
Prosperous, self-sufficient, independent in economic decision-making, attractive to in
vestors, loved by its citizens, a key subject of geopolitical decision-making in the region,
the center of innovation in Eastern Europe, tourist center, a new briefcase to follow in
terms of progress in economic and social policy.
WWhhaatt sshhoouulldd bbee ddoonnee ttoo aacchhiieevvee tthhiiss::
1. Establishment of clear regulations and their enforcement (tax reform, judicial reform,
reform of the prosecution).
2. Development of a comprehensive economic strategy and the establishment
of national management KPI based on this strategy (strategy is a job for sector reforms).
3. Creation of conditions for easy access of investments (‘cheap money’ policy, pension
reform, working financial market, and conditions for the re-activation of savings and
their return in the financial sector).
4. Attraction of foreign investment, including large multinational companies that could
place production facilities in Ukraine. In particular, this applies to Asian companies that
may consider Ukraine as a springboard for access to European markets. Such tools can
be used: state guarantees, tax incentives, public-private partnerships.
5. Support of export (development of international relations)
6. Ensuring energy independence by attracting investments in oil and gas industry.
7. Investment in energy efficiency and in innovation, as well as in venture projects.
8. Stimulation of entrepreneurship.
45
46. Український інститут майбутнього
Вул. Олеся Гончара, 65 (6-й поверх), м. Київ
Ukrainian Institute for the Future
Olesia Honchara str., 65 (6th floor), Kyiv
+38 044 537 17 78
uifuture@gmail.com
www.uifuture.org
www.facebook.com/UkrainianIF/
www.twitter.com/FutureUkr