This is my talk from the PyDataLondon conference in May 2016. I outline some time management techniques and useful learning resources for those interested in transitioning into data science.
Shaping Tomorrow - Guide - Introduction - May 2019Kerry Richardson
The updated world's challenges below show the top threats and opportunities as they are forecasted to be seven years from now. You can check out what you don't know about these, and specific topics of interest to you, using the search box above, or the links below to begin planning and actioning your response.
GRA - Scenario Planning: Addressing a Capability Gap Affecting Industry Compe...Rebecca Manjra
Exponential population and technology growth is occurring at a rate never before seen in history. Together, these forces have created the data driven world we live in. The business landscape has become more competitive and complex given the increased level of capability required to scale, evolve and rapidly gain market share; shortening the business maturity lifecycle.
A critical success factor to survival and succeed in both nature and business is the ability to learn and implement quickly – to adapt and evolve. By reducing the time it takes for your business to know what’s happening, learn what is needed for success and implement, you can outpace your competitors and capture new opportunities.
Today, there is an imperative to turn the vast seas of data into information, something useable which drives insights and enables us to make decisions which optimally utilise assets and resources. In operational speak, this entire process is enabled by excellence in Scenario Planning.
This presentation covers the relevancy of Scenario Planning today including an analysis of the stages of S&OP maturity as well as a case study with Simplot, a leading Australian food manufacturer and a leader in S&OP maturity and Scenario Planning.
Risk Management and Reliable Forecasting using Un-reliable Data (magennis) - ...Troy Magennis
To meet expectations and optimize flow, managing risk is an important part of Kanban. Anticipating and adapting to things that "go wrong" and the uncertainty they cause is topic of this session. We look at techniques for quantifying what risks should be considered important to deal with.
Although discouraging, forecasting size, effort, staff and cost is sometimes necessary. Of course we have to do as little of this as possible, but when we do, we have to do it well with the data we have available. Forecasting is made difficult by un-reliable information as inputs to our process – the amount of work is uncertain, the historical data we are basing our forecasts on is biased and tainted, the situation seems hopeless. But it isn't. Good decisions can be made on imperfect data, and this session discusses how. This session shows immediately usable and simple techniques to capture, analyze, cleanse and assess data, and then use that data for reliable forecasting.
Second and hopefully draft of LKCE 2014 talk.
This is my talk from the PyDataLondon conference in May 2016. I outline some time management techniques and useful learning resources for those interested in transitioning into data science.
Shaping Tomorrow - Guide - Introduction - May 2019Kerry Richardson
The updated world's challenges below show the top threats and opportunities as they are forecasted to be seven years from now. You can check out what you don't know about these, and specific topics of interest to you, using the search box above, or the links below to begin planning and actioning your response.
GRA - Scenario Planning: Addressing a Capability Gap Affecting Industry Compe...Rebecca Manjra
Exponential population and technology growth is occurring at a rate never before seen in history. Together, these forces have created the data driven world we live in. The business landscape has become more competitive and complex given the increased level of capability required to scale, evolve and rapidly gain market share; shortening the business maturity lifecycle.
A critical success factor to survival and succeed in both nature and business is the ability to learn and implement quickly – to adapt and evolve. By reducing the time it takes for your business to know what’s happening, learn what is needed for success and implement, you can outpace your competitors and capture new opportunities.
Today, there is an imperative to turn the vast seas of data into information, something useable which drives insights and enables us to make decisions which optimally utilise assets and resources. In operational speak, this entire process is enabled by excellence in Scenario Planning.
This presentation covers the relevancy of Scenario Planning today including an analysis of the stages of S&OP maturity as well as a case study with Simplot, a leading Australian food manufacturer and a leader in S&OP maturity and Scenario Planning.
Risk Management and Reliable Forecasting using Un-reliable Data (magennis) - ...Troy Magennis
To meet expectations and optimize flow, managing risk is an important part of Kanban. Anticipating and adapting to things that "go wrong" and the uncertainty they cause is topic of this session. We look at techniques for quantifying what risks should be considered important to deal with.
Although discouraging, forecasting size, effort, staff and cost is sometimes necessary. Of course we have to do as little of this as possible, but when we do, we have to do it well with the data we have available. Forecasting is made difficult by un-reliable information as inputs to our process – the amount of work is uncertain, the historical data we are basing our forecasts on is biased and tainted, the situation seems hopeless. But it isn't. Good decisions can be made on imperfect data, and this session discusses how. This session shows immediately usable and simple techniques to capture, analyze, cleanse and assess data, and then use that data for reliable forecasting.
Second and hopefully draft of LKCE 2014 talk.
The Artful Application of Collaborative Negotiations with ProvidersThomas Tanel
Fortune favors the prepared mind—”luck” in negotiations is actually the result of hard work and good planning. This presentation is for those who seek some collaborative negotiation skills that can be applied for success.
One of your major functions is to negotiate the best terms and price for the materials and services your organization needs to operate. This complex task requires knowledge, tact, superior communication skills, and a solid game
plan!
But few people understand that 90% of all negotiations
take place before the involved parties even get to the bargaining table. Collaboration is “in” and compromise is “out” for successful negotiators.
Learn how to make collaboration one of your best negotiating assets and reduce your anxiety as you assume a negotiation comfort level.
Three Steps for Reducing Total Cost of Ownership in Pumping SystemsSchneider Electric
Electricity usage costs have become an increasing fraction of the total cost of ownership (TCO) for industrial pumping systems. In fact, energy cost represents 40% of the TCO of a typical pump. It is possible to reduce the electrical consumption by at least 30% through appropriate energy management practices while reducing the maintenance cost. This paper explains how to reduce TCO with a limited investment.
Out with the old, in with the new intra-logistics--mmg news letter 2013Thomas Tanel
I would like to introduce the concept of Intra-logistics as the new mantra for Materials Management. Intra-logistics is a recent European term that describes the internal flow of materials between different logistics nodes within a company. Conceptually, Intra-logistics includes the set of logistical activities necessary to find, purchase, receive, store, process, issue, and deliver materials.
Count the ways distribution centers add value 1st--supply chain digital augus...Thomas Tanel
IN RESPONSE TO THE “NEW Normal”, the business
landscape has changed fundamentally; tomorrow’s
distribution environment will be different, but no less
rich in possibilities for those who are looking for ways
to add value. With new trends and an “e-volution” in
moving and storing materials comes the inevitable need
to reconceive how we operate our distribution centers
to stay competitive. Outdated philosophies not based
on the “New Normal” may prevent us from recognizing
and integrating some of the new ways the distribution
facility or DC can add real value to our operations.
The 4 s how do you bring purchasing skills to the process of 3pl selection--m...Thomas Tanel
The 3PL contract cycle can be managed just like any other outsourced services
procurement, and has four distinct segments that we will call the four S: Source,
Solicit, Select, and Secure. Proper execution of each segment is essential to developing and maintaining successful 3PL relationships.
Where's my stuff -logistic insight asia october 2012Thomas Tanel
Trading partners need the capabilities to track, trace, and control the progress of the entire logistics transaction. All partners need access to real-time information for collaboration to work. Supply chain celerity is necessity as today's supply chains move at a higher velocity than in the past.
Help employees meet great expectations -mh&l august 2012Thomas Tanel
Warehouse workers don’t do the same task the same way each and every time. Observing what really happens on the floor is key to developing good performance standards. Every warehouse manager has likely heard “What
gets measured gets done.” Measuring and
monitoring operations are key to managing an
efficient, productive facility. Therefore, developing and
implementing an employee performance expectations
program shouldn't be taken lightly.
A shift in sourcing strategies by mary seigfried -inside supply management ma...Thomas Tanel
Low-cost-country sourcing became popular decades
ago, but many supply managers found it to be a shortterm
strategy, says Thomas L. Tanel, C.P.M., president
and CEO of CATTAN Services Group, Inc. in College
Station, Texas. Now supply management professionals
are turning to best sourcing, which Tanel says also is
referred to as best-country sourcing or value-country
sourcing.
The 4 S's: For-hire Logistics and Transportation ServicesThomas Tanel
The 3PL contract cycle can be managed just like any other outsourced services procurement, and has four distinct
segments that we will call the four S: Source, Solicit, Select, and Secure. Proper execution of each segment is essential to developing and maintaining successful 3PL relationships.
The Art of Planning and Writing Specifications and Requirements Thomas Tanel
One of the most difficult tasks that purchasers face is converting user or internal customer needs to new specifications and requirements. For most, it’s easier said than done, while others simply dread the thought of constructing a Statement of Work. Failure to develop a properly defined scope of work, specification, or requirement may mean the solicitation will need to be abandoned and repeated with corrections. Purchasers who are involved in putting together specifications, requirements, or SOWs need to be aware that it is worth the investment, time, and effort to create a high quality outcome. Thus, it is important that purchasers understand the importance of good specifications and requirements, as well as their contractual and practical significance.
This presentation will offer you practical techniques, tools, and process methods for constructing effective specifications, requirements, and SOWs.
Key areas of focus that will be discussed in this workshop are:
Internal customer or user needs
The importance of a scope of work
SOWs and work requirements
The Statement of Work
Writing specifications and requirements
The Art of Planning and Writing Specs and Requirements--ISM 2010 TanelThomas Tanel
One of the most difficult tasks that purchasers face is converting user or internal
customer needs to new specifications and requirements. For most, it’s easier said than done,
while others simply dread the thought of constructing a Statement of Work. Failure to develop
a properly defined scope of work, specification, or requirement may mean the solicitation will
need to be abandoned and repeated with corrections. Purchasers who are involved in putting
together specifications, requirements, or SOWs need to be aware that it is worth the
investment, time, and effort to create a high quality outcome. Thus, it is important that
purchasers understand the importance of good specifications and requirements, as well as
their contractual and practical significance. This proceeding will offer you practical techniques,
tools, and process methods for constructing effective specifications, requirements, and SOWs.
Buying Transportation and 3rd Party Logistics Services-Part IIThomas Tanel
This executive briefing will help purchasing and supply professionals better understand their transportation and 3rd party logistics needs and develop sourcing strategies to fulfill those needs. Part II of two parts.
The session will focus on three topics. First, the terminology and economic basics of transportation and 3rd party logistics will be discussed. Next, alternate transportation/3rd party logistics strategies will be discussed. This topic will include a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of private and for-hire alternatives. The final topic will identify and discuss alternative sourcing strategies when using for-hire transportation and 3rd party logistics services.
Count the ways distribution centers add value 2nd--supply chain digital septe...Thomas Tanel
N RESPONSE TO THE “NEW Normal”, the business
landscape has changed fundamentally; tomorrow’s
distribution environment will be different, but no less
rich in possibilities for those who are looking for ways
to add value. With new trends and an “e-volution” in
moving and storing materials comes the inevitable need
to reconceive how we operate our distribution centers
to stay competitive. Outdated philosophies not based
on the “New Normal” may prevent us from recognizing
and integrating some of the new ways the distribution
facility or DC can add real value to our operations.
Assurance in uncertainty -logistics insight asia september 2012Thomas Tanel
For purchasers and suppliers who increasingly share vital information and resources, their relationship has evolved from mere transactions into a working business relationship.
Strategic Sourcing: Walking the Tightrope in Developing Sourcing StrategyThomas Tanel
This presentation will focus on developing the sourcing strategy as a fundamental and logical process involving the application of tools by skilled, competent, and knowledgeable purchasers. Simply put, our focus will be on the “how to” in developing a sourcing strategy. Are you experienced?
Topics that will be addressed include spend analysis, categorizing the best opportunities for sourcing group profiles, Porter’s Five Force Model and Sourcing Grids, establishing sourcing group portfolios and supplier portfolios, using the proper RFX format for sourcing, and making strategic sourcing the focal point for supplier negotiations. Participants will view “good practice” examples of the above.
If you find yourself “walking the tightrope” with a strategic sourcing initiative or an ongoing effort, you’ll get valuable information in developing your sourcing strategy. With our five phase approach, we will discuss the following “how to”:
1. Develop sourcing strategies differentiated by expenditure category and based on market dynamics.
2. Deeply involve end-users in sourcing for knowledge and buy-in.
3. Apply a rigorous sourcing approach that examines internal needs against supply market options to find the lowest total cost.
4. Challenge specifications and usage patterns to ensure that each expenditure is providing the best value for the company.
5. Identify, analyze, select, and negotiate with strategically advantaged suppliers, not just the ones with the lowest price today.
This presentation will conclude with a presentation review that can refine your understanding of the factors, tools, and guidelines you need to make your sourcing process more effective and more profitable for your organization.
Preventing and Managing Supply Chain DisruptionsThomas Tanel
Supply chains worldwide have been battling various risks and challenges for some time. Each challenge not only threatens to disrupt operations, but also may have a negative financial impact on business performance and prevent an organization from meeting the demands from stakeholders, customers, shareholders, and regulators.
Supply Chain Council members have reported that less than half of enterprises have established metrics and procedures for assessing and managing supply risks and organizations lack sufficient market intelligence, process, and information systems to effectively predict and mitigate supply chain risks. Does this sound like your organization?
f so, supply chain disruptions can be extremely costly. A disruption in your supply chain can cost millions of dollars in lost time, energy and resources. Their effects are both direct (e.g. halting production altogether) and indirect (e.g. on stock values). Taking steps to help reduce supply chain disruption is the only way to avoid these costs.
Proactive discovery and visibility of risks is the key to the prevention and management of supply chain disruptions.
Top 10 Logistics Risks in the Spirit of David LettermanThomas Tanel
The simple fact is that in today’s longer, more global supply chains, product moves over greater distances and across more multinational borders than in the more localized supply chains of the past. The coordination and execution required for international shipments has always been a challenge. But now we find that market conditions, security considerations, transportation versus inventory costs of ownership, increasing regulatory and political pressures, and even natural events (such as storms and earthquakes) with increasing frequency and havoc are converging in such a way that it makes the task even more daunting.
Proactive discovery and visibility of logistics risks is the key to the prevention and management of supply chain disruptions. And a key ingredient in managing supply chain disruptions is risk identification; so attend this valuable presentation to find out what the Top 10 Logistics Risks are (in the spirit of David Letterman) that you will be facing in the coming years. Donald Rumsfeld, former US Secretary of Defense quipped in 2002, “Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because, as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns-—-the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
General Gus Pagonis, in charge of logistics during the First Gulf War in 1991 describes it best in his own words, “Logisticians deal with unknowns. They attempt to eliminate unknowns, one by one, until they are confident that they have done away with the possibility of paralyzing surprises.” Are you equipped to succeed in a supply chain world of increasing difficulty and insecurity and multiple interconnected supply chains? Do you have the correct response to a supply disruption in the supply chain and the attendant Top 10 Logistics Risks?
Why is logistics risk management in the supply chain so important now? You’ve spent years streamlining operations, reengineering processes, integrating with partners, implementing purchasing, contract management and supply chain systems, and moving production to low-cost, offshore locations. You’ve done all of this in order to get a global supply chain that really works. Finally, you can take a deserved rest, right? Unfortunately, the answer is no-—-you must learn to continuously adapt to a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous logistics environment!
As noted by Charles Darwin, “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, or the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.”
Risk management is about having a systematic way of dealing with thin
Tips on Negotiating better in Cross-Cultural RelationshipsThomas Tanel
Nowadays, organizations of all sizes search for suppliers on a global level. International competition, foreign suppliers, and global sourcing may become a danger, but they may also create huge opportunities to develop your business. The increasingly global business environment requires purchasers to approach the negotiation process from the global business person’s point of view.
When you understand the personal, national, or organizational culture of your negotiation counterpart, then you can seek to align with them and hence gain greater influence. In this presentation, we attempt to bring these patterns of awareness to your attention:
Cross Cultural Communications and Negotiations
Hall’s Context, Chronomics, and Proxemics
Hofstede’s Five Key Elements of Culture
Paralanguage and Tips on Negotiation Better
So what?...you say. Given that cultural differences exist, the issue becomes how do they influence negotiations. Even though language molds thinking, other cultural classifications have a pervasive effect on how the world is perceived, how the self is experienced, and how life is organized.
Learning to communicate and negotiate business across cultural boundaries is paramount as today’s workplace rapidly changes because:
The business environment expands to include various geographic locations and span numerous cultures and,
The United States becomes more multi-culturally and ethnically diverse.
This presentation is designed to give purchasing, materials, supply management, sourcing, contracting, logistics, acquisition and procurement personnel a process of value measurement to quantify the value of purchased goods or services. Learn how to use Value Analysis to target goods and services where cost can be reduced, performance improved, quality enhanced, non-essentials eliminated, downsized, or consolidated through a step-by-step process of value identification and measurement.
The genesis of value analysis and value engineering can be traced to similar, parallel developments in the late 1940’s taking place at General Electric Company and Ford Motor Company. As a concept definition: it is the organized and systematic effort and study directed at analyzing the functional requirements of the system, product, equipment, facility, service or project for the purpose of achieving the lowest overall total cost at the best value. This means consistent with the needed performance, reliability, quality, and maintainability.
Join the trend of many purchasing, sourcing, contracting, and supply management organizations who are reaping the rewards of Value Analysis (VA) and Value Engineering (VE) as a practical tool to improve performance and reduce the cost of goods and services. Their experience with cost reduction projects reveals that by merely determining what things cost and documenting cost breakdowns, one can reduce costs 5%. Improving the choice of material, conceptual design, and methods can further reduce cost by another 10%. Finally, developing a better way to perform what a project or a service was originally intended to do, one can save even more—20-30% and beyond!
Not convinced of the critical importance of value analysis/value engineering VA/VE--- then you must not be interested in product enhancement, service concept augmentation, cost reduction, and profit improvement. Those kinds of payoffs don’t come easily, however. Success depends on three things: understanding of the concept by those who will be involved, strong top management support, and enthusiastic team or project oriented direction to get and keep the program rolling.
No wonder that Purchasing magazine for years dedicated an annual issue to its “Value Analysis of the Year” Awards. Why? According to experts, VA/VE can make a difference: simple projects can take anywhere from one day to six weeks to implement with savings up to $2,000; intermediate projects can range from six weeks to six months with savings of $2,000 to $10,000; and complex projects can take six months to six years with savings ranging from $10,000 to $1 million.
Practically Applying Sourcing Grids for Risk Management Thomas Tanel
Purchasing and supply management have never been easy. The past several years have caused many executives and professionals to lose more sleep and gain more gray hair (or lose more hair) than usual; therefore, the next decade requires upgraded skill sets to survive.
Portfolio analysis is one of the most powerful techniques
used by the purchaser, despite its simplicity. It is a simple “grid” tool that charts the amount we spend on products or services and the complexity of its acquisition.
Portfolio analysis helps us define our sourcing strategy and the best sourcing techniques to use dependent upon the position on the sourcing grid. It also defines the relationships (supplier positioning) we need to have with our key suppliers and gives us an insight in how the key suppliers may see us in perception model. It allows you to organize your time and
resources for maximum benefit and it encourages strategic thinking and analysis to reduce cost, add value, and minimize risk.
3rd alex marketing club (pharmaceutical forecasting) dr. ahmed sham'aMahmoud Bahgat
#Mahmoud_Bahgat
#Marketing_Club
Join us by WhatsApp to me 00966568654916
*اشترك في صفحة ال Marketing Club* عالفيسبوك
https://www.facebook.com/MarketingTipsPAGE/
*اشترك في جروب ال Marketing Club* عالفيسبوك
https://www.facebook.com/groups/837318003074869/
*Marketing Club Middle East*
25 Meetings in 6 Cities in 1 year & 2 months
Since October 2015
*We have 6 groups whatsapp*
*for almost 600 marketers*
From all middle east
*since 5 years*
& now 10 more groups
For Marketing Club Lovers as future Marketers
أهم حاجة الشروط
*Only marketers*
From all Industries
No students
*No sales*
*No hotels Reps*
*No restaurants Reps*
*No Travel Agents*
*No Advertising Agencies*
*Many have asked to Attend the Club*
((We Wish All can Attend,But Cant..))
*Criteria of Marketing Club Members*
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
For Better Harmony & Mind set.
*Must be only Marketer*
*Also Previous Marketing experience*
●Business Managers
●Country Manager,GM
●Directors, CEO
Are most welcomed to add Value to us.
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
《 *Unmatched Criteria*》
Not Med Rep,
Not Key Account,
Not Product Specialist,
Not Sales Supervisor,
Not Sales Manager,
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
But till you become a marketer
you can join other What'sApp group
*Marketing Lover Future Club Group*
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
《 *Unmatched Criteria*》
For Conflict of Intrest
*Also Can't attend*
If Working in
*Marketing Services Provider*
=not *Hotel* Marketers
=not *Restaurant* Marketers
=not *Advertising* Marketer
=not *Event Manager*
=not *Market Researcher*.
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
*this Club for Only Marketers*
Very Soon we will have
*Business Leaders Club*
For Sales Managers & Directors
Will be Not for Markters
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
■ *Only Marketers* ■
*& EPS Marketing Diploma*
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
Confirm coming by Pvt WhatsApp
*To know the new Location*
*#Mahmoud_Bahgat*
00966568654916
*#Marketing_Club*
http://goo.gl/forms/RfskGzDslP
*اشترك بصفحة جمعية الصيادلة المصريين* عالفيسبوك
https://lnkd.in/fucnv_5
■ *Bahgat Facbook Page*
https://lnkd.in/fVAdubA
■ *Bahgat Linkedin*
https://lnkd.in/fvDQXuG
■ *Bahgat Twitter*
https://lnkd.in/fmNC72T
■ *Bahgat YouTube Channel*
https://www.Youtube.com /mahmoud bahgat
■ *Bahgat Instagram*
https://lnkd.in/fmWPXrY
■ *Bahgat SnapChat*
https://lnkd.in/f6GR-mR
*#Mahmoud_Bahgat*
*#Legendary_ADLAND*
www.TheLegendary.info
The Artful Application of Collaborative Negotiations with ProvidersThomas Tanel
Fortune favors the prepared mind—”luck” in negotiations is actually the result of hard work and good planning. This presentation is for those who seek some collaborative negotiation skills that can be applied for success.
One of your major functions is to negotiate the best terms and price for the materials and services your organization needs to operate. This complex task requires knowledge, tact, superior communication skills, and a solid game
plan!
But few people understand that 90% of all negotiations
take place before the involved parties even get to the bargaining table. Collaboration is “in” and compromise is “out” for successful negotiators.
Learn how to make collaboration one of your best negotiating assets and reduce your anxiety as you assume a negotiation comfort level.
Three Steps for Reducing Total Cost of Ownership in Pumping SystemsSchneider Electric
Electricity usage costs have become an increasing fraction of the total cost of ownership (TCO) for industrial pumping systems. In fact, energy cost represents 40% of the TCO of a typical pump. It is possible to reduce the electrical consumption by at least 30% through appropriate energy management practices while reducing the maintenance cost. This paper explains how to reduce TCO with a limited investment.
Out with the old, in with the new intra-logistics--mmg news letter 2013Thomas Tanel
I would like to introduce the concept of Intra-logistics as the new mantra for Materials Management. Intra-logistics is a recent European term that describes the internal flow of materials between different logistics nodes within a company. Conceptually, Intra-logistics includes the set of logistical activities necessary to find, purchase, receive, store, process, issue, and deliver materials.
Count the ways distribution centers add value 1st--supply chain digital augus...Thomas Tanel
IN RESPONSE TO THE “NEW Normal”, the business
landscape has changed fundamentally; tomorrow’s
distribution environment will be different, but no less
rich in possibilities for those who are looking for ways
to add value. With new trends and an “e-volution” in
moving and storing materials comes the inevitable need
to reconceive how we operate our distribution centers
to stay competitive. Outdated philosophies not based
on the “New Normal” may prevent us from recognizing
and integrating some of the new ways the distribution
facility or DC can add real value to our operations.
The 4 s how do you bring purchasing skills to the process of 3pl selection--m...Thomas Tanel
The 3PL contract cycle can be managed just like any other outsourced services
procurement, and has four distinct segments that we will call the four S: Source,
Solicit, Select, and Secure. Proper execution of each segment is essential to developing and maintaining successful 3PL relationships.
Where's my stuff -logistic insight asia october 2012Thomas Tanel
Trading partners need the capabilities to track, trace, and control the progress of the entire logistics transaction. All partners need access to real-time information for collaboration to work. Supply chain celerity is necessity as today's supply chains move at a higher velocity than in the past.
Help employees meet great expectations -mh&l august 2012Thomas Tanel
Warehouse workers don’t do the same task the same way each and every time. Observing what really happens on the floor is key to developing good performance standards. Every warehouse manager has likely heard “What
gets measured gets done.” Measuring and
monitoring operations are key to managing an
efficient, productive facility. Therefore, developing and
implementing an employee performance expectations
program shouldn't be taken lightly.
A shift in sourcing strategies by mary seigfried -inside supply management ma...Thomas Tanel
Low-cost-country sourcing became popular decades
ago, but many supply managers found it to be a shortterm
strategy, says Thomas L. Tanel, C.P.M., president
and CEO of CATTAN Services Group, Inc. in College
Station, Texas. Now supply management professionals
are turning to best sourcing, which Tanel says also is
referred to as best-country sourcing or value-country
sourcing.
The 4 S's: For-hire Logistics and Transportation ServicesThomas Tanel
The 3PL contract cycle can be managed just like any other outsourced services procurement, and has four distinct
segments that we will call the four S: Source, Solicit, Select, and Secure. Proper execution of each segment is essential to developing and maintaining successful 3PL relationships.
The Art of Planning and Writing Specifications and Requirements Thomas Tanel
One of the most difficult tasks that purchasers face is converting user or internal customer needs to new specifications and requirements. For most, it’s easier said than done, while others simply dread the thought of constructing a Statement of Work. Failure to develop a properly defined scope of work, specification, or requirement may mean the solicitation will need to be abandoned and repeated with corrections. Purchasers who are involved in putting together specifications, requirements, or SOWs need to be aware that it is worth the investment, time, and effort to create a high quality outcome. Thus, it is important that purchasers understand the importance of good specifications and requirements, as well as their contractual and practical significance.
This presentation will offer you practical techniques, tools, and process methods for constructing effective specifications, requirements, and SOWs.
Key areas of focus that will be discussed in this workshop are:
Internal customer or user needs
The importance of a scope of work
SOWs and work requirements
The Statement of Work
Writing specifications and requirements
The Art of Planning and Writing Specs and Requirements--ISM 2010 TanelThomas Tanel
One of the most difficult tasks that purchasers face is converting user or internal
customer needs to new specifications and requirements. For most, it’s easier said than done,
while others simply dread the thought of constructing a Statement of Work. Failure to develop
a properly defined scope of work, specification, or requirement may mean the solicitation will
need to be abandoned and repeated with corrections. Purchasers who are involved in putting
together specifications, requirements, or SOWs need to be aware that it is worth the
investment, time, and effort to create a high quality outcome. Thus, it is important that
purchasers understand the importance of good specifications and requirements, as well as
their contractual and practical significance. This proceeding will offer you practical techniques,
tools, and process methods for constructing effective specifications, requirements, and SOWs.
Buying Transportation and 3rd Party Logistics Services-Part IIThomas Tanel
This executive briefing will help purchasing and supply professionals better understand their transportation and 3rd party logistics needs and develop sourcing strategies to fulfill those needs. Part II of two parts.
The session will focus on three topics. First, the terminology and economic basics of transportation and 3rd party logistics will be discussed. Next, alternate transportation/3rd party logistics strategies will be discussed. This topic will include a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of private and for-hire alternatives. The final topic will identify and discuss alternative sourcing strategies when using for-hire transportation and 3rd party logistics services.
Count the ways distribution centers add value 2nd--supply chain digital septe...Thomas Tanel
N RESPONSE TO THE “NEW Normal”, the business
landscape has changed fundamentally; tomorrow’s
distribution environment will be different, but no less
rich in possibilities for those who are looking for ways
to add value. With new trends and an “e-volution” in
moving and storing materials comes the inevitable need
to reconceive how we operate our distribution centers
to stay competitive. Outdated philosophies not based
on the “New Normal” may prevent us from recognizing
and integrating some of the new ways the distribution
facility or DC can add real value to our operations.
Assurance in uncertainty -logistics insight asia september 2012Thomas Tanel
For purchasers and suppliers who increasingly share vital information and resources, their relationship has evolved from mere transactions into a working business relationship.
Strategic Sourcing: Walking the Tightrope in Developing Sourcing StrategyThomas Tanel
This presentation will focus on developing the sourcing strategy as a fundamental and logical process involving the application of tools by skilled, competent, and knowledgeable purchasers. Simply put, our focus will be on the “how to” in developing a sourcing strategy. Are you experienced?
Topics that will be addressed include spend analysis, categorizing the best opportunities for sourcing group profiles, Porter’s Five Force Model and Sourcing Grids, establishing sourcing group portfolios and supplier portfolios, using the proper RFX format for sourcing, and making strategic sourcing the focal point for supplier negotiations. Participants will view “good practice” examples of the above.
If you find yourself “walking the tightrope” with a strategic sourcing initiative or an ongoing effort, you’ll get valuable information in developing your sourcing strategy. With our five phase approach, we will discuss the following “how to”:
1. Develop sourcing strategies differentiated by expenditure category and based on market dynamics.
2. Deeply involve end-users in sourcing for knowledge and buy-in.
3. Apply a rigorous sourcing approach that examines internal needs against supply market options to find the lowest total cost.
4. Challenge specifications and usage patterns to ensure that each expenditure is providing the best value for the company.
5. Identify, analyze, select, and negotiate with strategically advantaged suppliers, not just the ones with the lowest price today.
This presentation will conclude with a presentation review that can refine your understanding of the factors, tools, and guidelines you need to make your sourcing process more effective and more profitable for your organization.
Preventing and Managing Supply Chain DisruptionsThomas Tanel
Supply chains worldwide have been battling various risks and challenges for some time. Each challenge not only threatens to disrupt operations, but also may have a negative financial impact on business performance and prevent an organization from meeting the demands from stakeholders, customers, shareholders, and regulators.
Supply Chain Council members have reported that less than half of enterprises have established metrics and procedures for assessing and managing supply risks and organizations lack sufficient market intelligence, process, and information systems to effectively predict and mitigate supply chain risks. Does this sound like your organization?
f so, supply chain disruptions can be extremely costly. A disruption in your supply chain can cost millions of dollars in lost time, energy and resources. Their effects are both direct (e.g. halting production altogether) and indirect (e.g. on stock values). Taking steps to help reduce supply chain disruption is the only way to avoid these costs.
Proactive discovery and visibility of risks is the key to the prevention and management of supply chain disruptions.
Top 10 Logistics Risks in the Spirit of David LettermanThomas Tanel
The simple fact is that in today’s longer, more global supply chains, product moves over greater distances and across more multinational borders than in the more localized supply chains of the past. The coordination and execution required for international shipments has always been a challenge. But now we find that market conditions, security considerations, transportation versus inventory costs of ownership, increasing regulatory and political pressures, and even natural events (such as storms and earthquakes) with increasing frequency and havoc are converging in such a way that it makes the task even more daunting.
Proactive discovery and visibility of logistics risks is the key to the prevention and management of supply chain disruptions. And a key ingredient in managing supply chain disruptions is risk identification; so attend this valuable presentation to find out what the Top 10 Logistics Risks are (in the spirit of David Letterman) that you will be facing in the coming years. Donald Rumsfeld, former US Secretary of Defense quipped in 2002, “Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because, as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns-—-the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
General Gus Pagonis, in charge of logistics during the First Gulf War in 1991 describes it best in his own words, “Logisticians deal with unknowns. They attempt to eliminate unknowns, one by one, until they are confident that they have done away with the possibility of paralyzing surprises.” Are you equipped to succeed in a supply chain world of increasing difficulty and insecurity and multiple interconnected supply chains? Do you have the correct response to a supply disruption in the supply chain and the attendant Top 10 Logistics Risks?
Why is logistics risk management in the supply chain so important now? You’ve spent years streamlining operations, reengineering processes, integrating with partners, implementing purchasing, contract management and supply chain systems, and moving production to low-cost, offshore locations. You’ve done all of this in order to get a global supply chain that really works. Finally, you can take a deserved rest, right? Unfortunately, the answer is no-—-you must learn to continuously adapt to a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous logistics environment!
As noted by Charles Darwin, “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, or the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.”
Risk management is about having a systematic way of dealing with thin
Tips on Negotiating better in Cross-Cultural RelationshipsThomas Tanel
Nowadays, organizations of all sizes search for suppliers on a global level. International competition, foreign suppliers, and global sourcing may become a danger, but they may also create huge opportunities to develop your business. The increasingly global business environment requires purchasers to approach the negotiation process from the global business person’s point of view.
When you understand the personal, national, or organizational culture of your negotiation counterpart, then you can seek to align with them and hence gain greater influence. In this presentation, we attempt to bring these patterns of awareness to your attention:
Cross Cultural Communications and Negotiations
Hall’s Context, Chronomics, and Proxemics
Hofstede’s Five Key Elements of Culture
Paralanguage and Tips on Negotiation Better
So what?...you say. Given that cultural differences exist, the issue becomes how do they influence negotiations. Even though language molds thinking, other cultural classifications have a pervasive effect on how the world is perceived, how the self is experienced, and how life is organized.
Learning to communicate and negotiate business across cultural boundaries is paramount as today’s workplace rapidly changes because:
The business environment expands to include various geographic locations and span numerous cultures and,
The United States becomes more multi-culturally and ethnically diverse.
This presentation is designed to give purchasing, materials, supply management, sourcing, contracting, logistics, acquisition and procurement personnel a process of value measurement to quantify the value of purchased goods or services. Learn how to use Value Analysis to target goods and services where cost can be reduced, performance improved, quality enhanced, non-essentials eliminated, downsized, or consolidated through a step-by-step process of value identification and measurement.
The genesis of value analysis and value engineering can be traced to similar, parallel developments in the late 1940’s taking place at General Electric Company and Ford Motor Company. As a concept definition: it is the organized and systematic effort and study directed at analyzing the functional requirements of the system, product, equipment, facility, service or project for the purpose of achieving the lowest overall total cost at the best value. This means consistent with the needed performance, reliability, quality, and maintainability.
Join the trend of many purchasing, sourcing, contracting, and supply management organizations who are reaping the rewards of Value Analysis (VA) and Value Engineering (VE) as a practical tool to improve performance and reduce the cost of goods and services. Their experience with cost reduction projects reveals that by merely determining what things cost and documenting cost breakdowns, one can reduce costs 5%. Improving the choice of material, conceptual design, and methods can further reduce cost by another 10%. Finally, developing a better way to perform what a project or a service was originally intended to do, one can save even more—20-30% and beyond!
Not convinced of the critical importance of value analysis/value engineering VA/VE--- then you must not be interested in product enhancement, service concept augmentation, cost reduction, and profit improvement. Those kinds of payoffs don’t come easily, however. Success depends on three things: understanding of the concept by those who will be involved, strong top management support, and enthusiastic team or project oriented direction to get and keep the program rolling.
No wonder that Purchasing magazine for years dedicated an annual issue to its “Value Analysis of the Year” Awards. Why? According to experts, VA/VE can make a difference: simple projects can take anywhere from one day to six weeks to implement with savings up to $2,000; intermediate projects can range from six weeks to six months with savings of $2,000 to $10,000; and complex projects can take six months to six years with savings ranging from $10,000 to $1 million.
Practically Applying Sourcing Grids for Risk Management Thomas Tanel
Purchasing and supply management have never been easy. The past several years have caused many executives and professionals to lose more sleep and gain more gray hair (or lose more hair) than usual; therefore, the next decade requires upgraded skill sets to survive.
Portfolio analysis is one of the most powerful techniques
used by the purchaser, despite its simplicity. It is a simple “grid” tool that charts the amount we spend on products or services and the complexity of its acquisition.
Portfolio analysis helps us define our sourcing strategy and the best sourcing techniques to use dependent upon the position on the sourcing grid. It also defines the relationships (supplier positioning) we need to have with our key suppliers and gives us an insight in how the key suppliers may see us in perception model. It allows you to organize your time and
resources for maximum benefit and it encourages strategic thinking and analysis to reduce cost, add value, and minimize risk.
3rd alex marketing club (pharmaceutical forecasting) dr. ahmed sham'aMahmoud Bahgat
#Mahmoud_Bahgat
#Marketing_Club
Join us by WhatsApp to me 00966568654916
*اشترك في صفحة ال Marketing Club* عالفيسبوك
https://www.facebook.com/MarketingTipsPAGE/
*اشترك في جروب ال Marketing Club* عالفيسبوك
https://www.facebook.com/groups/837318003074869/
*Marketing Club Middle East*
25 Meetings in 6 Cities in 1 year & 2 months
Since October 2015
*We have 6 groups whatsapp*
*for almost 600 marketers*
From all middle east
*since 5 years*
& now 10 more groups
For Marketing Club Lovers as future Marketers
أهم حاجة الشروط
*Only marketers*
From all Industries
No students
*No sales*
*No hotels Reps*
*No restaurants Reps*
*No Travel Agents*
*No Advertising Agencies*
*Many have asked to Attend the Club*
((We Wish All can Attend,But Cant..))
*Criteria of Marketing Club Members*
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
For Better Harmony & Mind set.
*Must be only Marketer*
*Also Previous Marketing experience*
●Business Managers
●Country Manager,GM
●Directors, CEO
Are most welcomed to add Value to us.
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
《 *Unmatched Criteria*》
Not Med Rep,
Not Key Account,
Not Product Specialist,
Not Sales Supervisor,
Not Sales Manager,
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
But till you become a marketer
you can join other What'sApp group
*Marketing Lover Future Club Group*
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
《 *Unmatched Criteria*》
For Conflict of Intrest
*Also Can't attend*
If Working in
*Marketing Services Provider*
=not *Hotel* Marketers
=not *Restaurant* Marketers
=not *Advertising* Marketer
=not *Event Manager*
=not *Market Researcher*.
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
*this Club for Only Marketers*
Very Soon we will have
*Business Leaders Club*
For Sales Managers & Directors
Will be Not for Markters
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
■ *Only Marketers* ■
*& EPS Marketing Diploma*
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
Confirm coming by Pvt WhatsApp
*To know the new Location*
*#Mahmoud_Bahgat*
00966568654916
*#Marketing_Club*
http://goo.gl/forms/RfskGzDslP
*اشترك بصفحة جمعية الصيادلة المصريين* عالفيسبوك
https://lnkd.in/fucnv_5
■ *Bahgat Facbook Page*
https://lnkd.in/fVAdubA
■ *Bahgat Linkedin*
https://lnkd.in/fvDQXuG
■ *Bahgat Twitter*
https://lnkd.in/fmNC72T
■ *Bahgat YouTube Channel*
https://www.Youtube.com /mahmoud bahgat
■ *Bahgat Instagram*
https://lnkd.in/fmWPXrY
■ *Bahgat SnapChat*
https://lnkd.in/f6GR-mR
*#Mahmoud_Bahgat*
*#Legendary_ADLAND*
www.TheLegendary.info
Better Living Through Analytics - Strategies for Data DecisionsProduct School
Data is king! Get ready to understand how a successful analytics team can empower managers from product, marketing, and other areas to make effective, data-driven decisions.
Louis Cialdella, a data scientist at ZipRecruiter, shared some case studies and successful strategies that he has used at ZipRecruiter as well as previous experiences. The purpose of this data talk was to enlighten people on how to make sure that analysts can successfully partner with other departments and get them the information they need to do great things.
Effective demand planning - our vision at SolventureSolventure
As Solventure we proud ourselves of being experts in designing and implementing Sales, Inventory and Operations Planning.
Companies that have a good SiOP process can’t imagine how to live without it. It is the key instrument for the CEO to navigate the business along the budget towards its strategic targets. Demand Planning plays an important role in every SiOP process and is key to to make it successful.
This white paper, Effective Demand Planning, summarizes the vision we have distilled from the many projects we have done over the last 10 years.
http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/business-stat/opre/partIX.htm
Tools for Decision Analysis: Analysis of Risky Decisions
If you will begin with certainties, you shall end in doubts, but if you will content to begin with doubts, you shall end in almost certainties. -- Francis Bacon
Making decisions is certainly the most important task of a manager and it is often a very difficult one. This site offers a decision making procedure for solving complex problems step by step.It presents the decision-analysis process for both public and private decision-making, using different decision criteria, different types of information, and information of varying quality. It describes the elements in the analysis of decision alternatives and choices, as well as the goals and objectives that guide decision-making. The key issues related to a decision-maker's preferences regarding alternatives, criteria for choice, and choice modes, together with the risk assessment tools are also presented.
Professor Hossein Arsham
MENU
1. Introduction & Summary
2. Probabilistic Modeling: From Data to a Decisive Knowledge
3. Decision Analysis: Making Justifiable, Defensible Decisions
4. Elements of Decision Analysis Models
5. Decision Making Under Pure Uncertainty: Materials are presented in the context of Financial Portfolio Selections.
6. Limitations of Decision Making under Pure Uncertainty
7. Coping with Uncertainties
8. Decision Making Under Risk: Presentation is in the context of Financial Portfolio Selections under risk.
9. Making a Better Decision by Buying Reliable Information: Applications are drawn from Marketing a New Product.
10. Decision Tree and Influence Diagram
11. Why Managers Seek the Advice From Consulting Firms
12. Revising Your Expectation and its Risk
13. Determination of the Decision-Maker's Utility
14. Utility Function Representations with Applications
15. A Classification of Decision Maker's Relative Attitudes Toward Risk and Its Impact
16. The Discovery and Management of Losses
17. Risk: The Four Letters Word
18. Decision's Factors-Prioritization & Stability Analysis
19. Optimal Decision Making Process
20. JavaScript E-labs Learning Objects
21. A Critical Panoramic View of Classical Decision Analysis
22. Exercise Your Knowledge to Enhance What You Have Learned (PDF)
23. Appendex: A Collection of Keywords and Phrases
Companion Sites:
· Business Statistics
· Success Science
· Leadership Decision Making
· Linear Programming (LP) and Goal-Seeking Strategy
· Linear Optimization Software to Download
· Artificial-variable Free LP
Solution
Algorithms
· Integer Optimization and the Network Models
· Tools for LP Modeling Validation
· The Classical Simplex Method
· Zero-Sum Games with Applications
· Computer-assisted Learning Concepts and Techniques
· Linear Algebra and LP Connections
· From Linear to Nonlinear Optimization with Business Applications
· Construction of the Sensitivity Region for LP Models
· Zero Sagas in Four Dimensions
· Systems Simulation
· B.
In the fast-changing world of corporate recruiting, it’s important to be aware of and prepared for the problems and opportunities that you will soon face. In short, because it’s “better to be prepared than surprised”, both recruiting and hiring managers must find a way to be “proactive” in planning for these upcoming events, rather than being “reactive”. The most effective way to identify trends and to predict upcoming recruiting issues is through the use of analytics and predictive metrics This advanced webinar will be led by long time ERE.net author and global metrics expert Dr. John Sullivan. He will guide you through the goals, the action steps and the best emerging corporate practices in predictive recruiting metrics.
STAT4610 Project 5So You Want to be an Entrepreneur”INTROD.docxmckellarhastings
STAT4610 Project 5
“So You Want to be an Entrepreneur?”
INTRODUCTION
Starting a new business can be an exciting adventure! Who doesn’t want to find themselves at the top of the next Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Myspace, Instagram, Beanie Babies, Pet Rocks, Roto-Rooter, Enron, WorldCom, (OK, you get the point!)?
The problem with starting a new business is it carries an inherent amount of risk. (OK, a considerable amount of risk!) One-third of businesses fail within the first two years, and over half are gone in five years. That’s a waste of a significant amount of toil, sweat, intellectual effort, creativity, and—oh yes—capital! Failed businesses have stripped entrepreneurs of their life savings (and the savings of others) for millennia, but the successes have also lined the pockets of a lot of savvy investors.
Since most people can’t afford to fund their own startups, a popular strategy involves convincing others to get behind your great idea. Venture capital funds are always willing to chase the next big thing, but unfortunately there is a limit to the patience of the world’s check-writers, and most of them didn’t get rich without recognizing when it is time to cut losses.
There is hope, however! Analytics can help every new business set realistic expectations for their investors, and in fact are essential in the formulation of a business plan. Because of the uncertainties involved with startups (in terms of costs, timelines, returns, rates of success, etc.) it is often difficult to forecast the progression of a new venture, but with a sufficient knowledge of the field and the tasks required, a simulation can frequently get an entrepreneur into the right ballpark. Sometimes this is enough to start the money flowing!
PROJECT OVERVIEW
In this project you will develop a business plan for an Angel Investor in order to secure funding for your new startup. You will require funding until the point that your company generates a profit and is actually able to return capital (or positive equity) to its investors. Expenses may include payroll for developers or designers, facilities and infrastructure, marketing and sales, purchasing or collecting data, research, and a variety of other costs that you may want to identify. Obviously, you will have to identify a viable product around which to build your company, and if you’re stuck without an idea, feel free to go back to your Gateway Course and build a business around app development. Finally, you will need to determine the cost of executing your business plan across this timeline in order to secure sufficient funding.
[As an aside, the particular product or service is not essential to this project—you may use something developed in another course, some cool idea that you might have in mind, or something entirely fictional.]
You may make any assumptions you want concerning the availability of personnel (whether you will be required to hire them or if they are already onboard as part .
I am very happy to present you my very first thesis! :)
Within this thesis, I aim to consolidate scenario planning process accross various discipline.
This proposed approach will allow to explore "How can scenario planning can be leveraged to enhance long-term Strategic & Financial Planning." The aim is to bring a fresh perspective to Scenario Planning as a cross-functional practice.
Please feel free to contact me at ybmetalo@gmail.com for any discussion around this subject or any other related ones.
Thanks and regards :)
FOUR TYPES OF BUSINESS ANALYTICS TO KNOWBUSINESS ANALYTICSby AJeanmarieColbert3
FOUR TYPES OF BUSINESS ANALYTICS TO KNOW
BUSINESS ANALYTICS
by Anushka Mehta October 13, 2017
For different stages of business analytics huge amount of data is processed at various steps. Depending on the stage of the workflow and the requirement of data analysis, there are four main kinds of analytics – descriptive, diagnostic, predictive and prescriptive. These four types together answer everything a company needs to know- from what’s going on in the company to what solutions to be adopted for optimizing the functions.
The four types of analytics are usually implemented in stages and no one type of analytics is said to be better than the other. They are interrelated and each of these offers a different insight. With data being important to so many diverse sectors- from manufacturing to energy grids, most of the companies rely on one or all of these types of analytics. With the right choice of analytical techniques, big data can deliver richer insights for the companies
Before diving deeper into each of these, let’s define the four types of analytics:
1) Descriptive Analytics:Describing or summarizing the existing data using existing business intelligence tools to better understand what is going on or what has happened.
2) Diagnostic Analytics: Focus on past performance to determine what happened and why. The result of the analysis is often an analytic dashboard.
3) Predictive Analytics:Emphasizes on predicting the possible outcome using statistical models and machine learning techniques.
4) Prescriptive Analytics:It is a type of predictive analytics that is used to recommend one or more course of action on analyzing the data.
Let’s understand these in a bit more depth.
1. Descriptive Analytics
This can be termed as the simplest form of analytics. The mighty size of big data is beyond human comprehension and the first stage hence involves crunching the data into understandable chunks. The purpose of this analytics type is just to summarize the findings and understand what is going on.
Among some frequently used terms, what people call as advanced analytics or business intelligence is basically usage of descriptive statistics (arithmetic operations, mean, median, max, percentage, etc.) on existing data. It is said that 80% of business analytics mainly involves descriptions based on aggregations of past performance. It is an important step to make raw data understandable to investors, shareholders and managers. This way it gets easy to identify and address the areas of strengths and weaknesses such that it can help in strategizing.
The two main techniques involved are data aggregation and data mining stating that this method is purely used for understanding the underlying behavior and not to make any estimations. By mining historical data, companies can analyze the consumer behaviors and engagements with their businesses that could be helpful in targeted marketing, service improvement, etc. The tools used in this phase are MS Excel, MATLAB ...
Not sure how to do this case analysis please help me do it!1.Are t.pdfamitbagga0808
Not sure how to do this case analysis please help me do it!
1.Are the regions similar?
2.What would be a good forecasting method to use?
3.Are there more advanced methods that might be considered?
Here is the data
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LYZHLx9f0Av9FJ6NLfULMU61cZPV3voqrVzbJNfV
jKk/edit?usp=sharing
Solution
Most people view the world as consisting of a large number of alternatives. Futures research
evolved as a way of examining the alternative futures and identifying the most probable.
Forecasting is designed to help decision making and planning in the present.
Forecasts empower people because their use implies that we can modify variables now to alter
(or be prepared for) the future. A prediction is an invitation to introduce change into a system.
There are several assumptions about forecasting:
1. There is no way to state what the future will be with complete certainty. Regardless of the
methods that we use there will always be an element of uncertainty until the forecast horizon has
come to pass.
2. There will always be blind spots in forecasts. We cannot, for example, forecast completely
new technologies for which there are no existing paradigms.
3. Providing forecasts to policy-makers will help them formulate social policy. The new social
policy, in turn, will affect the future, thus changing the accuracy of the forecast.
Many scholars have proposed a variety of ways to categorize forecasting methodologies. The
following classification is a modification of the schema developed by Gordon over two decades
ago:
Genius forecasting - This method is based on a combination of intuition, insight, and luck.
Psychics and crystal ball readers are the most extreme case of genius forecasting. Their forecasts
are based exclusively on intuition. Science fiction writers have sometimes described new
technologies with uncanny accuracy.
There are many examples where men and women have been remarkable successful at predicting
the future. There are also many examples of wrong forecasts. The weakness in genius forecasting
is that its impossible to recognize a good forecast until the forecast has come to pass.
Some psychic individuals are capable of producing consistently accurate forecasts. Mainstream
science generally ignores this fact because the implications are simply to difficult to accept. Our
current understanding of reality is not adequate to explain this phenomena.
Trend extrapolation - These methods examine trends and cycles in historical data, and then use
mathematical techniques to extrapolate to the future. The assumption of all these techniques is
that the forces responsible for creating the past, will continue to operate in the future. This is
often a valid assumption when forecasting short term horizons, but it falls short when creating
medium and long term forecasts. The further out we attempt to forecast, the less certain we
become of the forecast.
The stability of the environment is the key factor in determining whether tren.
Proper forecasting is a key factor that decides a company's survival in the market. Companies that are good at forecasting can win over the market quickly because they are ready for every uncertain situation. Companies now have started relying on digital methods of forecasting for better and genuine results.
Methods of Forecasting for Capacity ManagementPrecisely
Forecasting is the process of making statements about events in the future. Events related to capacity management are typically things like the state of resource consumption, service levels, and computing environment changes at future points in time. Making statements or predictions about these future events requires analysis of information to determine a future state. Knowing what information is needed to make accurate forecasts is a critical step for any analysis.
Forecasts are made to answer questions. Understanding the questions, and things that affect answers to those questions, is the first step to creating an accurate forecast. Required accuracy of a forecast should determine which methods are used to create it. Assumptions can be made to limit the amount of data and time required for creating forecasts. Validating forecast accuracy, after events happen, is an important part of continually improving future forecasts, and building credibility. This webinar describes the important task of forecasting as it relates to capacity management.
This presentation covers the following topics:
• Why do we forecast?
• Forecasting scenarios
• Forecasting Techniques
• Forecasting and Virtualization
• Summary
Adapt, overcome, and improvise words to live by for the supply chain--e parce...Thomas Tanel
In the movie Heartbreak Ridge, Clint Eastwood as Gunny Highway says, “You're Marines now. You adapt. You overcome. You improvise.”
With more than 40 plus years of seasoned and practical supply chain experience, I would like to share with you a military perspective on what Gunny Sergeant Thomas Highway meant and its application to the supply chain.
Supply chain performance reporting and metrics -logistics digest 091112Thomas Tanel
Many managers see supply chain performance reporting and metrics as a huge time drain that results in a series of uncomfortable conversations and confrontations they would rather not endure. You cannot manage what you cannot measure, and your supply chain is one of the most important functions to manage. The good news is that you’re Logistics and Supply Chain Management people
are probably already doing a lot of measuring. The bad news is that they might not be measuring the right things. To measure your supply chain effectively, you must identify metrics that are appropriate for your organization and that will improve business performance.
Supplier financial stability and risk differentiation in turbulent times -sup...Thomas Tanel
There is a Darwinian effect occurring in the supply chain as Fortune 1000 companies cut weaker suppliers. The simple fact is that in today’s longer global supply chains, product
moves over greater distances and across more multinational borders than in the more localized supply chains of the past. In an era of wildly fluctuating commodity prices and security regulations, the coordination and execution required for international shipments has become
more of a challenge than in the past.
Spaced out are you making the most of your shrinking space--werc sheet (may-j...Thomas Tanel
Are you making the most of your (shrinking) space? Tanel says that most companies do consider adding space. “However,” he says, “it is sometimes necessary to review the presently occupied facilities to determine if one can increase productivity by changing the physical and spatial relationships between operations,” he explains. According to Thomas Tanel, president of CATTAN Services, before you can consider making any changes in your current mode of operation, you have to thoroughly understand how your warehouse runs.
Recriminations the need to reevaluate manufacturing offshoring and outsourcin...Thomas Tanel
It is increasingly popular now for companies to reevaluate offshoring and the outsourcing of manufacturing and other services. Now we hear about onshoring, near shoring and right shoring. Are you dazed and confused? Who’s right and who’s wrong? More importantly, organizations need to do the necessary due diligence as part of their sourcing decision. It has been my contention that in addition to the basic item’s purchase price; we need to seriously
consider the ultimate cost of delivering the goods to the buyer's facility.
Nine ways warehousing adds value -logistic insight asia november-december 2012Thomas Tanel
With new trends and an 'e-volution' in moving and storing materials comes the inevitable need to reconceive how we operate our warehouses and distribution centers to stay competitive.
Mitigating supply chain risk in uncertain times murphy's law--mworld volume 1...Thomas Tanel
The simple fact is that in today’s longer global supply chains, product moves over greater distances and across
more multinational borders than in the more localized
supply chains of the past. This distance-based supply chain, whose links are forged by many supplier tiers in various countries, carries a risk dependent on its length and
diversity. The longer and more diverse it becomes, the
more it is susceptible to unforeseen circumstances.
Management by walking around is a good start here’s what to do while walking-...Thomas Tanel
‘Management by walking around’ is a good start; here’s what to do while walking. Getting out on the floor of the
DC is a crucial management tactic. But if you walk around only once in a while, you run the risk of what Tom Tanel calls the “lip-service presentation and eyewash tour.”
Identifying vulnerability is step one to mitigating supply chain risk -my pur...Thomas Tanel
Supply chains are becoming increasingly complex. Yet many procurement teams are not working to prevent and manage disruptions that could prove costly. In a recent webcast, “Preventing and Managing Supply Chain Disruptions,” Tanel describes costs of disruption to the supply chain and explains why it’s important for procurement to learn to identify vulnerabilities and develop a plan to mitigate risk.
How to make eoq relevant again -logistics & supply chain world july 2012Thomas Tanel
The concepts of Just-in-Time (JIT) and Lean have led many to question the continued relevance of Economic Order Quantity (EOQ), whose function is to identify the optimum order with the lowest cost parameter. In response, yes, it is still valid as a basic analytic tool, however, many supply chain industry executives perceive it as “old school” or don’t even know about it. My experience has shown that
many individuals and some companies cannot apply it—even if they wanted to—because they do not know their acquisition costs to place an order or their yearly inventory carrying cost rate.
Cost Reduction Strategies:Focus and TechniquesThomas Tanel
This is a highly concentrated presentation that addresses the differences among price, cost, and TCO; what cost reduction strategies to focus on; and an overview of various techniques, as well as when and where to use them. Faced with excruciating competitive pressures, many senior C-Level executives require maximum effort from every part of their organization to survive. Today, purchasing, acquisition, procurement, contracting, and supply management professionals must be the most progressive cost reduction oriented group in the company.
For many organizations, senior C-Level executives set forth annual purchasing, acquisition, procurement, contracting, and supply management goals that mandate cost reductions. Regardless of the cost savings, avoidances, or containments achieved previously, you are faced with new cost reduction initiatives and objectives.
To make the goal of cost reduction a reality, we cannot focus solely on the price. We must examine the total cost of ownership to your organization, which means moving beyond the organizational environs to include suppliers, internal customers, other allied business functional entities, and external customers. By working both internally and externally with these stakeholders, cost reduction opportunities will become visible.
A typical purchasing, acquisition, procurement, contracting, or supply management professional will help reduce supplier prices and avoid incremental costs. A good purchasing, acquisition, procurement, contracting, or supply management professional will reduce costs by lowering both costs of acquisition and risks of supply. A great purchasing, acquisition, procurement, contracting, or supply management professional will reduce total costs across the board, increase service levels to the internal customer, make a significant contribution to the bottom line, seek value-added opportunities, and help to delight the organization’s customer. This type of professional also balances supply related costs and cycle time for the lowest overall cost, at the best value, while seeking risk optimization rather than risk minimization strategies.
International Logistics & Warehouse Management Thomas Tanel
This presentation is designed to take an astute quick look at international logistics and warehouse management, both in terms of today's global supply chain and in the demand flow management process, so you can know how to make the most of this strategically. You've probably heard something about these topics. You may even be somewhat familiar with them. But how much do you really know about their strategic importance?
In an international logistics and warehouse management system, cost-to-cost "trade-offs" available through systems analysis are easy to identify. One example is using premium transportation for small, time-phased purchased lots to reduce inventory investment and lower safety stock. Another might be using a distribution center for freight consolidation or Crossdocking to improve customer service levels and avoid material handling inefficiencies. Yet another might be the use of a blanket agreement (with a rolling forecast) with your supplier. By aligning supplier capacity to your customer schedules and your inventory goals, you gain pipeline visibility through automated order tracking and alerts in addition to lowering costs and raising customer service levels. The overall goal, to achieve a fully integrated logistics approach, is to realize maximum trade-offs among basic functional activities such as warehousing.
Traditional Logistics and Warehousing channels are indeed changing. As organizations move from mass production and mass distribution to lean manufacturing, postponement, and mass customization, creative approaches are needed in the management of logistics and warehousing. The challenge is always present, because different customers may demand different levels of service. Demand often cannot be forecasted, especially if one must deliver customized products or services exactly where the customer needs them on a global scale at multiple locations.
Businesses today must understand that they are competing on the basis of time more than on any other factor. The rigors of international logistics require that you take action to meet your customers’ demand for faster, more frequent, and more reliable deliveries. Your suppliers need to meet increasingly precise inbound schedules. Tomorrow’s customers are more likely to be in another country or continent than they are likely to be from across town, in another state, or in another province. In addition, diverse countries use different formats for weights and other units of measures, as well as many countries and localities have different licensing requirements and charge different duties, value-added taxes (VAT), and fees, which altogether amount to a major content-management challenge for your Global Trade and Logistics IT systems.
Logistics and Supply Chain Management-OverviewThomas Tanel
This presentation is designed to take an overview of global supply chain logistics, both in terms of today's supply chain and in the demand flow management process, so you can know how to make the most of this powerful tool. You've probably heard something about these topics. You may even be vaguely familiar with them. But how much do you really know about their strategic importance and the specific benefits you can gain from having a solid understanding of them?
Here's the best way to investigate global supply chain logistics and the impact it can have on your organization. You will have the opportunity to explore a variety of logistics areas , extrapolate their meanings in ways that are appropriate for strategic planning, and apply the techniques needed to make it all work for your organization.
Your business needs and technology are in a constant state of rapid-fire change, but you can count on one thing remaining constant: the need to align logistics strategically with your market needs in order to gain a competitive advantage. This alignment requires building a supply and demand system that truly helps you respond to worldwide changes in sourcing and ever-shifting customer demand. What is the potential effect that global trade management will have on your supply chain? How do you convert digital value inputs into logistics value-added outputs? How can you harness the power of global supply chain logistics as a significant force in the execution of your corporate strategy? How can you gain the information you need to translate abstractions into concrete benefits through supply chain management and continuous flow distribution?
Warehouse Operations and Inventory Management Thomas Tanel
Companies that make the best use of the basic principles of planning and managing warehouse operations and inventory management have a competitive advantage. Organizations that lack warehouse strategic planning and inventory operational excellence lose profits, market share, cost advantages, and market leadership.
Traditional Supply Chain and Logistics channels are indeed changing. As organizations move from mass production and mass distribution to mass customization, creative approaches are needed in the management of warehousing and inventory. The challenge is always present, because different customers may demand different levels of service. Demand often cannot be forecasted, especially if one must deliver customized products or services exactly where the customer needs them.
Businesses today must understand that they are competing on the basis of time more than on any other factor. The rigors of supply chain management require that you take action to meet your customers’ demand for faster, more frequent, and more reliable deliveries. Your suppliers need to meet increasingly precise inbound schedules. Tomorrow’s customers are more likely to be in another country or continent than they are likely to be from across town, in another state, or in another province.
With a proven inventory management system and an A-B-C Analysis, you can transform your inventory into a proactive force that lowers your inventory investment, reduces carrying costs, boosts confidence in physical supply and distribution service levels, and increases customer and user satisfaction. From a storage and distribution perspective, you, as overseer of the supply management process, should also know how the warehousing layout design criteria and the space and storage schemes affect your material flow, service levels, computerization, and technology options.
3.0 Project 2_ Developing My Brand Identity Kit.pptxtanyjahb
A personal brand exploration presentation summarizes an individual's unique qualities and goals, covering strengths, values, passions, and target audience. It helps individuals understand what makes them stand out, their desired image, and how they aim to achieve it.
B2B payments are rapidly changing. Find out the 5 key questions you need to be asking yourself to be sure you are mastering B2B payments today. Learn more at www.BlueSnap.com.
The world of search engine optimization (SEO) is buzzing with discussions after Google confirmed that around 2,500 leaked internal documents related to its Search feature are indeed authentic. The revelation has sparked significant concerns within the SEO community. The leaked documents were initially reported by SEO experts Rand Fishkin and Mike King, igniting widespread analysis and discourse. For More Info:- https://news.arihantwebtech.com/search-disrupted-googles-leaked-documents-rock-the-seo-world/
Cracking the Workplace Discipline Code Main.pptxWorkforce Group
Cultivating and maintaining discipline within teams is a critical differentiator for successful organisations.
Forward-thinking leaders and business managers understand the impact that discipline has on organisational success. A disciplined workforce operates with clarity, focus, and a shared understanding of expectations, ultimately driving better results, optimising productivity, and facilitating seamless collaboration.
Although discipline is not a one-size-fits-all approach, it can help create a work environment that encourages personal growth and accountability rather than solely relying on punitive measures.
In this deck, you will learn the significance of workplace discipline for organisational success. You’ll also learn
• Four (4) workplace discipline methods you should consider
• The best and most practical approach to implementing workplace discipline.
• Three (3) key tips to maintain a disciplined workplace.
Company Valuation webinar series - Tuesday, 4 June 2024FelixPerez547899
This session provided an update as to the latest valuation data in the UK and then delved into a discussion on the upcoming election and the impacts on valuation. We finished, as always with a Q&A
Personal Brand Statement:
As an Army veteran dedicated to lifelong learning, I bring a disciplined, strategic mindset to my pursuits. I am constantly expanding my knowledge to innovate and lead effectively. My journey is driven by a commitment to excellence, and to make a meaningful impact in the world.
Business Valuation Principles for EntrepreneursBen Wann
This insightful presentation is designed to equip entrepreneurs with the essential knowledge and tools needed to accurately value their businesses. Understanding business valuation is crucial for making informed decisions, whether you're seeking investment, planning to sell, or simply want to gauge your company's worth.
Implicitly or explicitly all competing businesses employ a strategy to select a mix
of marketing resources. Formulating such competitive strategies fundamentally
involves recognizing relationships between elements of the marketing mix (e.g.,
price and product quality), as well as assessing competitive and market conditions
(i.e., industry structure in the language of economics).
In the Adani-Hindenburg case, what is SEBI investigating.pptxAdani case
Adani SEBI investigation revealed that the latter had sought information from five foreign jurisdictions concerning the holdings of the firm’s foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in relation to the alleged violations of the MPS Regulations. Nevertheless, the economic interest of the twelve FPIs based in tax haven jurisdictions still needs to be determined. The Adani Group firms classed these FPIs as public shareholders. According to Hindenburg, FPIs were used to get around regulatory standards.
An introduction to the cryptocurrency investment platform Binance Savings.Any kyc Account
Learn how to use Binance Savings to expand your bitcoin holdings. Discover how to maximize your earnings on one of the most reliable cryptocurrency exchange platforms, as well as how to earn interest on your cryptocurrency holdings and the various savings choices available.
Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to ma...Lviv Startup Club
Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to make small projects with small budgets profitable for the company (UA)
Kyiv PMDay 2024 Summer
Website – www.pmday.org
Youtube – https://www.youtube.com/startuplviv
FB – https://www.facebook.com/pmdayconference
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey throu...dylandmeas
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey through Full Sail University. Below, you’ll find a collection of my work showcasing my skills and expertise in digital marketing, event planning, and media production.
Event Report - SAP Sapphire 2024 Orlando - lots of innovation and old challengesHolger Mueller
Holger Mueller of Constellation Research shares his key takeaways from SAP's Sapphire confernece, held in Orlando, June 3rd till 5th 2024, in the Orange Convention Center.
Recruiting in the Digital Age: A Social Media MasterclassLuanWise
In this masterclass, presented at the Global HR Summit on 5th June 2024, Luan Wise explored the essential features of social media platforms that support talent acquisition, including LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok.
Recruiting in the Digital Age: A Social Media Masterclass
Applying the powers of observation to supplier visits -mmg news letter october 2013
1. October 2013
A Message From the MMG Chair
Terry R. Volpel, CPSM, C.P.M., SCMP
Inside this issue:
Napoleon and Alexander —
Modern Supply Chain Lessons
From Military History
3
Applying the Powers of Observation to Supplier Visits
3
Upcoming Events . . .
Seminar:
4
Services Contracting, Principles
of Price & Cost Analysis
Board of Directors
Chair
Terry R. Volpel, CPSM, C.P.M.,
SCMP, LSSBB
The next few years are going to be very
interesting for those of us who manage materials travelling through our supply
chains. Internal threats and external
threats are constantly rising and falling,
Risk assessments are often outdated
and lagging. The Speed of Business is
ever increasing and we need to develop faster methods of identifying risks
and fast tracking mitigation strategies.
Make or buy? Off shoring or in shoring or
near shoring? Supplier Management? Contract
Management?
All of these decisions can have long term
consequences for those who just follow the
trends. In order to be successful we need to be
pro-active, not re-active. We need to get in
front of the curve; to spot trouble; to develop
leading indicators that give us time to act.
Materials Management is more than “just in
time” or even “just in case” planning. What
sets us apart is the mindset that what was val-
id yesterday may not be appropriate today.
The more agile we can make our business, the
faster we can respond to changes in
the business environment.
The ISM Materials Management
Group brings thought leadership to the
table. At ISM’s 98th Annual International Supply Management Conference in
Dallas, May 2013, no less than six
workshops were sponsored by the Materials Management Group. We are active in
research conducted through institutions such as
Michigan State University.
The Board is made up of Practitioners, Consultants and Academics, each bringing some
special outlook or viewpoint but most importantly, the flexibility to understand that
there are many paths one can take to success.
It is only when we get trapped in a paradigm
that we lose sight of this basic truth. Paradigms lock us into a box where we can ignore
the reality of what is going on around us.
Vice Chair
Mary Walker, CPSM, CPSD,
C.P.M., A.P.P.
Secretary/Treasurer
Sheila D. Petcavage, C.P.M.
Chair Emeritus
Karl Harward, MBA
Director/Coordinator
Sponsoring Programs
(ISM Conference)
Fred Lutz, C.P.M., CIRM
Membership Chair
Raymond F. Hopkins, C.P.M.
Director
Cheryl Phillips-Thill, MBA
Technology Advisor
Robert A. Bonnell, C.P.M.
Advisor
M. Bixby Cooper. Ph.D.
Advisor
Steven Melnyk, Ph.D., MBA
We’re on the web!
www.ismmmg.org
The Basics of Forecasting ― The Art and Science of Planning for the Future
Kathleen D. Allen, CPSM
The world of business today is characterized by its fast pace, driven forward at an
ever-increasing rate by technology and the
constantly changing landscape of our global
economy. It seems to be almost impossible to
predict what's going to happen next. The
motto of our business world today could
be...expect the unexpected. Or perhaps...anything is possible.
This poses an interesting dilemma for today's supply chain professionals, especially
those involved in production management.
Future planning is essential to the effective
management of resources. Essential in planning for raw materials and components purchases. Essential in planning for lead-times.
Essential to estimate demand, plan for labor
needs and production capacity. Essential in
the effective management of inventory. In
other words, essential to the success of your
business.
So the challenge is how to best plan for
the future. How to predict the unpredictable.
How to make financially
sound decisions based on the
unknown. The answer to this
challenge lies in the creation
of forecasting models tailored to meet your business'
production management
needs.
The selection of a forecasting model to
best meet your production management
needs may seem like an overwhelming topic.
There are many models available for forecasting, ranging from the simple moving average model to models so complex they
need to be handled by specialized software
programs. The first step, however, is to gain
a good overall understanding of the principles of forecasting.
2. Page 2
The Basics of Forecasting ― The Art and Science of Planning for the Future (continued)
Let's start by defining forecasting.
Forecasting is the art and the science of
predicting future events. The art, why?
Because no one can really predict the
future and realistically, a lot of forecasting is intuition or "following your gut.”
The science, why? Fortunately there are
mathematical modeling methods commonly used in forecasting for a variety
of situations. Because it is an art, you
should never rely 100 percent on forecasting. Because it is a science, you
should know and accurately apply as
many relevant forecasting techniques as
possible.
In the world of forecasting, this juxtaposition between the art and the science
of attempting to predict the future is
defined by the terms, qualitative forecasting versus quantitative forecasting.
Qualitative forecasting refers to an approach dictated by human judgment.
Quantitative forecasting refers to a statistical approach. The art and the science. Or perhaps we may like to think of
it as man versus machine. The human
brain versus the computer.
Another important juxtaposition in
forecasting models is whether to look at
things from the top down or from the
bottom up. Tops-down forecasting takes
the big picture and breaks it down into
pieces. Bottoms-up forecasting takes the
pieces (for example data on a SKU level
or data by region) and puts it together
to form the big picture. In forecasting
terms, these tops-down or bottoms-up
approaches are also referred to as aggregate forecasting versus disaggregate
forecasting. Aggregate is the pieces
together as a whole, disaggregate is the
whole broken down into all the pieces.
Or we could frame this same concept
from another angle by using the ideas of
macro (big picture) versus micro (down to
the details).
These two concepts, simplified as man
versus machine and macro versus micro,
are high level juxtapositions that will
apply to all forecasting models. Now,
let's review some basic concepts involved
in creating a forecasting model. There
are lots of factors involved in forecasting, but I like to think that these can all
be boiled down to four essential concepts. Combination, smoothing, time and
trend.
COMBINATION. The key to refining
the accuracy of forecasts is to use a combination of forecasting methods. This is
an essential concept in building a forecasting model. Of course, the term
"accurate forecasting" is actually an
oxymoron since no one can 100% predict the future, but building an effective
forecasting model will certainly help to
produce more accurate forecasting results.
SMOOTHING. The second essential
concept to remember that goes hand-inhand with combination is smoothing. Yes,
smoothing! Picture a line graph with a
jagged line. Or since we are using a
combination of forecasting methods, let's
picture three jagged lines representing
three forecasting methods. Now let's
picture a line that is combining those
three lines, with the jagged edges
smoothed out. That's the key to refining
the accuracy of forecasting.
Accuracy in forecasting is improved by
using a combination of methods and
smoothing the results. Simple, but true.
This is the very basis of building a forecasting model that will be effective to
manage your business' production needs.
Next, we need to take a look at timelines and horizons through the concepts
of time and trend.
TIME. The next important concept to
remember in forecasting is time. The past
is often our best indication of the future.
As a general rule, the longer time period
you can reference, the better. If you
observed your company's production
needs based on demand for just a couple of months, you probably wouldn't be
able to get a very good picture of the
long term demand needs. However, if
you were to observe your company's
production needs based on demand for
a year, ten years or even longer, you'd
probably have a much better idea of
the production cycle over time. Generally speaking the longer period of time
you are observing, the better your picture of the situation will be.
When forecasting, it's necessary to
break time into chunks so it's easier to
manage and in forecasting terms these
segments of time are referred to as periods. These periods can be segmented
by days, quarterly, annually or whatever works best for your business and forecasting model. The term observation in
forecasting refers to the number of periods being used in a forecasting model.
So now we've broken up our concept of
time into periods (or segments of time)
and observations (or number of periods
in our forecasting model).
TREND. As mentioned before, the ability to increase the accuracy of forecasting by observing a longer period of time
is only true generally speaking. There is
another hugely important factor that we
need to introduce now to balance out the
time concept and that is TREND. In today's fast-paced, high-tech world, information becomes obsolete almost as
quickly as we can take it in. Would we
want to use information from a period of
ten years backwards to determine how
many paperback books or magazines to
produce for the upcoming year? Heck
no! Because now a huge portion of the
population will download the material
they are interested in reading directly
on to an electronic device.
Forecasting needs to balance time with
trend. The converse of this situation also
holds true. Would we want to continue to
produce the same amount of some fashion fad item in the future? No, that would
be silly too, since trends peak and fall
quickly in our fast-paced world. A good
forecasting model should balance time
with trend and use a combination of
methods to achieve a smoothing effect.
So now that we have a good understanding of the basic framework of forecasting, let's run through the steps needed to determine the best forecasting
model to manage your business' production. Since your company's production
needs will be constantly changing to
adapt to the direction and pace of the
market, reanalyzing your forecasting
models will be an on-going process.
Therefore, as a supply chain professional, it is essential that you understand
these steps and can recognize when it's
time for your business to adapt.
STEP 1: Select and build the mathematical models best suited for your company's production needs. Forecasting
models can, and often do, utilize lots of
complex formulas and heavy duty number crunching. Depending on the size
and complexity of your business' production needs, the formulas to best suit your
company's situation could be determined
by an internal planning and forecasting
staff or an outside consultant specializing
in forecasting services. Regardless of
whether your company uses inside or
outside consultants to build forecasting
models, it is important for supply chain
professionals to understand the principles of how models are selected and
built. The concepts of COMBINATION
and SMOOTHING are essential here.
STEP 2: Determine the periods and
observations best suited to build your
forecasting model. Or, in other words,
how to best break up the chunks of TIME
3. Page 3
The Basics of Forecasting ― The Art and Science of Planning for the Future (continued)
your model will work with. Start by gathering as much historical data as possible
on your company's production output. Do
this from both a tops-down perspective
and a bottoms-up approach. This is also
a great time and place to gather data
on the competition and benchmark this
against your company's history.
STEP 3: Apply relevant TREND concepts to your forecasting model. These
would include both seasonal trends, if
they pertain to your business, and market trends. Seasonal trends will show as
peaks and valleys over time. A longer
period of time is required to see the
patterns of seasonal trends. Seasonal
trends are a good example of data that
is generally best approached from a
quantitative standpoint. Market trends
may be observed by looking into the
past but are most effective when considered from the standpoint of the present
to the future. Market trends are a good
example of data that is generally best
approached from a qualitative standpoint.
In today's business world, supply chain
professionals must take on roles of increasing complexity in order to effec-
Napoleon and Alexander Modern Supply Chain Lessons From Military History
Kathleen D. Allen, CPSM
A favorite topic of mine is the lessons
our modern culture can learn from history.
In the field of supply management and
logistics, these lessons often come from
the military. In looking to the future of
supply management, we can benefit from
the knowledge and strategic skills of
great historical military commanders. I’ll
mention two military figures from history
that are my personal favorites as inspirations in strategic applications of supply
management principles.
The first inspiration comes from the
small, rocky and infertile land of Macedonia, a land of people who had few
natural resources at their disposal. It’s a
story that happened over 2000 years
ago of two men who, within just two generations, built one of the greatest military
forces known in history. Alexander the
Great and his predecessor/father, Philip
of Macedonia, created a Macedonian
military force that was able to take down
the army of Darius, King of the Persian
Empire, who had at his control one of the
largest and most sophisticated militaries
of the time. Macedonian troops focused
their skills, employed structural teamwork
in combat and reduced the supplies they
required down to the bare minimum. Each
soldier carried only the supplies needed
to support his role in combat and cover
his basic personal needs. The soldiers
carried their own weaponry, a helmet
that doubled a soup bowl, a block of salt
and a bar of soap. Unlike other great
military models of the time, there were no
separate supply transports that could be
cut off from the troops by enemy forces.
For this reason, Alexander and his troops
were able to move quickly and travel far
from their home base. They eventually
came to stand against the army of the
Persian Empire, at that time one of the
most well equipped militaries in the
world, with chariots, sophisticated weaponry and many troops at their disposal. At the decisive Battle of Gaugamela,
the Macedonians delivered their final
defeat to the Persian Empire with an
army estimated to be half the size of
the Persian forces.
My other favorite military figure, an
inspiration in the field of supply management, is Napoleon Bonaparte. Napoleon rose to power to fill a void left
by the aftermath of the bloody social
uprising, the French Revolution. Napoleon’s supply chain strategy was quite
different than Alexander’s in that it revolved around the intelligent management of supplies and supply chain
routes. The streets of the city of Paris to
this day reflect the concept of supply
management routes planned out from a
centralized core. Roads were paved to
allow for vehicles to maximize efficiency
of moving troops and supplies. Steps
were also taken to preserve food supplies so they could be transported longer distances. Napoleon offered a cash
reward for someone to create a reliable
method of preserving food that could be
transported to his troops without degradation. A French cook rose to the challenge by preserving nutritious foods like
soup in a process similar to the process
for bottling wine. Thus Napoleon was
able to extend his supply lines further
from a centralized base without his supplies losing integrity.
There are many things the modern
field of supply chain and logistics can
learn by looking at military strategies
throughout history. Even though our
world today is becoming more fastpaced and complex every day, there
are basic principles that never change.
A look back is a look forward and a
lesson learned for the future.
tively control the flow of information and
materials needed to accurately manage
production. Forecasting is an essential
tool for the management of resources,
from labor and raw materials to the
finished goods, delivered on-time and
within margin goals. Your company's
ability to gauge the most probable upcoming production needs, both short and
long term, through forecasting and stake
out a strategic position based on this
information are crucial to determining
both the present and future success of
your business.
Applying the Powers
of Observation to
Supplier Visits
Thomas L. Tanel, C.P.M., CTL, CCA, CISCM
President, CATTAN Services Group, Inc.
At the recent ISM’s 98th Annual International Supply Management Conference in Grapevine, Texas, I conducted a
presentation entitled, Power of Observation: What Purchasers Can Learn
from Darwin. This
presentation focused
on the benefits of
enhanced observation
skills. That is to use the
“power of observation.” Charles Darwin,
a British scientist, who
laid the foundations
of the theory of evolution and transformed the way we think about the natural world, spent much of his career
observing.
So what I will do is apply some of the
lessons made in that presentation, from
Darwin, to an activity that many purchasers engage in; namely, a Supplier
Site Visit. As many of you already
know, site visit itineraries should be
planned in advance to include a tour
and formal/informal discussions. The site
visit activities will vary based on your
objectives and the specific challenges
faced by the supplier organization that
you are visiting.
To make a site visit an effective and
valuable exercise, it is imperative that
you have a clear agenda about what
you want to accomplish: time for observation, formal and informal interviews,
and an after-action report. Otherwise,
you risk being treated to the standard
promotional ”lip service presentation
and eyewash tour.”
(continued on page 4)
4. Page 4
Applying the Powers of Observation to Supplier Visits (continued)
Direct Observation
During your tour, observe facility layout, material and process flow, systems
and procedures. At the same time, try to
get a sense of the big picture about how
the plant, warehouse or service center
operates. Seeing is not observing, University of Pittsburgh researchers point
out. As practiced by scientists, observation is a rigorous activity that integrates
what the scientists are seeing with what
they already know and what they think
might be true. Therefore, maybe we
should learn what to observe:
by various observers. Use these checklists
to guide your observation and document
information for follow-up and for sharing
in discussions and reports. Additionally,
check for compliance with accepted industry standards, ISO guidelines and
good practice guidelines.
Take notes as inconspicuously as possible. The best time for recording notes is
during observation. However, since this is
not always feasible, recording observations should take place as soon as possible after observation. Plan time for this
in your site visit schedule.
Asking Questions
Regard anything out of ordinary
patterns as possibly a risk or intentional distraction. Did you notice any
recurring patterns or routines? How
often did they occur? Who was involved?
Focus on incongruent people, equipment, processes, methods, material
flow, etc. What do they look like or
how do they appear? How are they
acting? How many of them are there?
Look beyond what you are shown or
told. Everything you see that is out of
place, ask yourself why it is there
and how it got there, and what it tells
you about the bigger picture.
The main advantage of direct observation is that an organization, event,
facility, or process can be studied in its
natural setting, thereby providing a richer understanding of the situation. Another advantage is that it may reveal conditions, problems, or patterns the supplier may be unaware of or unable to describe adequately. On the negative side,
direct observation is susceptible to observer bias: people may behave differently when they know they are being
observed. The Heisenberg Uncertainty
Principle or Observer Effect are interchangeable terms referring to changes
that the act of observation will make on
the phenomenon being observed. A simple example: a forklift operator will
lower his speed of movement when he
knows that an outside visitor is in his
work area.
I recommend the use of observation
checklists which help standardize the
observation process and ensure that all
important items are covered. Checklists
also facilitate better aggregation of
data gathered from various functions or
Use your powers of observation as a
means of strengthening another important ability: the art of asking questions. Observations are ‘raw materials’
for questions. In some situations, observing what does not happen may be as
important as observing what happens.
Tony Robbins, the American life coach
and self-help author states, “Successful
people ask better questions, and as a
result, they get better answers.”
Meet with management executives,
supervisors, workers, and other staff to
get their perspective on how the site
operates. Do not use rigid questionnaires, which inhibit free discussion.
However, you must have an idea of what
questions to ask in advance of your visit.
Always try to establish rapport and
start with factual questions. Questions
requiring opinions and judgments should
then follow. In general, begin with the
present and then move to questions
about the past or future. Try to phrase
questions carefully to elicit detailed information and avoid questions that can
be answered by a simple yes or no. For
example, questions such as “Please tell
me about the Customer Number One
Satisfaction program?” are better than
“Do you know about the Customer Number One Satisfaction program?”
Use open-ended questions which are
designed to encourage a full, meaningful
answer utilizing the person's own
knowledge and/or feelings. It is the opposite of a closed-ended question, which
encourages a short or single-word answer. Open-ended questions typically
begin with words such as "Why" and
"How," or phrases such as "Tell me
about...." Close ended questions that call
for yes/no or multiple choice answers
are the mark of an amateur.
Also encourage interviewees to detail
the basis for their conclusions and recommendations through the use of probing.
For example, an informant’s comment,
such as “The inbound logistics program
has really changed things around here,”
can be probed for more details, such as
“What changes have you noticed?” Who
seems to have benefited most?” “Can
you give me some specific examples?”
After the Site Visit
Before leaving, discuss the visit with
the supplier/potential supplier. Have
yourself (or your team) draft and send a
formal supplier site visit analysis after
the visit that includes all positives and
negatives.
You should prepare a report after
conducting a supplier site visit. The report should include the purpose of the
visit, what you did, with whom you met,
issues or challenges to be addressed,
items for follow-up, and recommend
appropriate changes needed to support
your organization’s objectives.
This report will serve as a reference
and should be reviewed before the next
subsequent visit to enable tracking of
progress made towards addressing issues identified as problematic.
In conclusion, observation is by no
means restricted to a supplier site visit; it
has practical application in business. A
sharp businessperson can size up a situation accurately and quickly. A trained
engineer can scan a factory floor and
notice key aspects of the workflow. An
alert sales representative can enter
someone's office and tell how best to
approach the person after a quick
glance at the desk. The American industrialist, Eugene C. Grace wrote: "If I
were to prescribe one process in the
training of people which is fundamental
to success in any direction, it would be
thoroughgoing training in the habit of
accurate observation." An effective businessperson sees what others overlook,
whether in a production line, an administrative routine, or a product specification.
5. Upcoming Event
Principles of Price & Cost Analysis and
Services Contracting
Sponsored by
ISM―Utah and the ISM Materials Management Group
Friday, November 8, 2013
7:30 a.m. - 4:30 p.m.
Speaker: Mike Taylor, C.P.M.
Learn from a knowledgeable procurement expert on price & cost analysis, and services contracting.
A great way to earn 7 continuing education hours and learn from one of the industry’s best!
Location:
Radisson Hotel SLC Downtown
215 W. South Temple Street
Salt Lake City, UT 84101
801/531-7500
www.radisson.com/salt-lake-city-hotel-ut-84101/utsaltlk
Fee:
US$329 for ISM members / US$429 for non-members (a great value for an all day seminar)
Early Bird
Discount:
Members and Non-members — Receive a US$30 discount if registration and payment are
received by October 8, 2013.
Added Value!
Registrants who are not members of ISM will receive six (6) months of membership
with ISM―Utah as part of their registration fee.
Credit:
Receive a certificate and 7 credit hours towards C.P.M./CPSM®/CPSD™ certification/recertification.
Registration:
Register online now or complete the registration form on the next page.
Parking:
Parking is free. However, attendees are encouraged to take public transportation if possible.
Meals:
Continental Breakfast and plated lunch is included with registration. For special dietary
needs, contact Jerilyn Midthun (Jerilyn.Midthun@slcgov.com) or Karl Harward
(Karl.Harward@slcgov.com) prior to October 8, 2013.
Can’t Attend?
Manual Package US$295 for ISM Members/US$395 for Non-ISM members
(Please note: Attendance at the event is required for continuing education credit.)
Who Should Attend?
All Public and Private Sector Purchasing Managers, Directors, Buyers, Procurement Specialists, Services and Commodity Buyers
This workshop is designed for buyers and procurement staff in both private and public sectors who want to improve their skills at
determining if a proposed price is fair and reasonable. You’ll learn the role that cost and price analysis plays in proposal evaluation, and how to perform that analysis. Cost elements will be discussed, along with the differences between direct and indirect costs
AND how those differences may affect a seller’s proposed purchase price. You also will look at some examples that use these principles to develop competitive pricing ranges and negotiation objectives.
Note: This workshop is not intended to be a “by-the-reg” reading of FARs or DARs. It will touch on many of the general principles and requirements of
FAR parts 31 and 32. This is not a government procurement class; however, knowing, in general, what the regulations say about cost principles, allowable costs and cost accounting can benefit buyers in any organization.
6. Registration Form
Principles of Price & Cost Analysis and
Services Contracting
Sponsored by
ISM―Utah and the ISM Materials Management Group
Radisson Hotel SLC Downtown
Friday, November 8, 2013
7:30 a.m. - 4:30 p.m.
_____ I am registering for the seminar
_____ I would like to purchase the manual package
__________________ □ CPSM □ CPSD □ C.P.M. □ A.P.P.
Name:
Job Title:
______________________
Company/Organization:
________________________________________________
Mailing Address:
City:
_________________________________________
_____________________________
Phone: ____________
___
State: __________
Zip/Postal Code: ____________
Email: __________________________________________
Fee:
US$329 for ISM members
US$429 for non-members (market code: MBSH14— apply to non-member registrations only)
Added Value!
Registrants who are not members of ISM will receive six (6) months of membership with ISM―Utah
as part of their registration fee.
Early Bird
Discount:
Members and Non-members — Receive a US$50 discount if registration and payment are
received by October 8, 2013.
Can’t Attend?
Manual Package US$295 for ISM Members/US$395 for ISM Non-members
(Please note: Attendance at the event is required for continuing education credit.)
Method of Payment: (U.S. Funds Only)
Check enclosed for US$___________________
Check Number: ___________(Make check payable to: ISM-MMG)
Credit Card Type: □ Visa □ Amex □ MasterCard □ Discover □ Diners Club
Credit Card Number:
______________________Amount to be charged: US$___________
CVN #: _______ Expiration Date: ______/______ (month/year)
Name of Cardholder: ____________________________ Cardholder Signature: ______________________________
Mail to: ISM MMG Event, 2055 E. Centennial Circle, Tempe, AZ 85284 — Attn: Cere Netters
Fax to: 480/752-7890, Attn: Cere Netters
ISM Contact: Cere Netters at cnetters@ism.ws or phone at 800/888-6276 or 480/752-6276, ext. 3069.