The document defines a recession as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. It then summarizes several historical US recessions from the 1930s to the Great Recession of 2007-2009, including their duration, GDP decline, unemployment rates, and primary causes such as financial crises, wars, and changes in government policy. Common effects of recessions are listed as bankruptcies, unemployment, and deflation. While India was less impacted than other countries, its growth declined and key sectors like IT, banking, and automobiles were affected.

1. RESESSION

2. RECESSION- MEANING
A RECESSION is a decline in a country's
gross domestic product (GDP) growth for two
or more consecutive quarters of a year.
National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER)
• National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
is the official agency in charge of declaring
that the economy is in a state of recession.
• They define recession as : “significant decline
in economic activity lasting more than a few
months, which is normally visible in real GDP,
real income, employment, industrial
production, and wholesale-retail sales

3. Historical Recessions:
The Roosevelt Recession: (May 1937–June 1938)
Duration: 13 months
GDP decline: 10%
Peak unemployment rate: 20%
Reasons and causes: The stock market
crashed in late 1937.
Businesses blamed the
"New Deal," a series of government-
financed infrastructure work projects through
the Works Projects Administration (WPA)
and Civilian Conservation Corps
(CCC).These projects provided work for
more than 250,000 men . The government
blamed a "capital strike" (lack of investment)
on the part of businesses, while "New
Dealers" blamed cuts in WPA funding.
The first four years of Social Security
insurance deductions pulled $2 billion out of
circulation at this time
The Union Recession: (February 1945–October 1945)
•Duration: Eight months
•GDP decline: 10.9%
•Peak unemployment rate: 5.2%
•Reasons and causes: The tail-end of World War II, the
beginning of demobilization of military forces, and the slow
transition to civilian production marked this period. War
production had virtually ceased and veterans were just
beginning to re-enter the workforce.
It was also known as the
"Union Recession," as unions were beginning to reassert
themselves. Minimum wages were on the rise and credit was
tight.

4. The Post-Korean War Recession: (July 1953–May 1954)
Duration: 10 months
GDP decline: 2.7%
Peak unemployment rate: 5.9%
Reasons and causes: After an inflationary period that followed
the Korean War, more dollars were directed at national
security.
The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy to curb
inflation in 1952. The dramatic change in interest rates caused
increased pessimism about the economy and decreased
aggregate demand.
The Eisenhower Recession: (August 1957–April 1958)
Duration: Eight months
GDP decline: 3.7%
Peak unemployment rate: 7.4%
Reasons and causes: The government tightened monetary
policy compared to years prior to the recession to curb
inflation, but prices continued to rise in the U.S. through
1959. The sharp worldwide recession and the strong U.S.
dollar contributed to a foreign trade deficit.
The "Rolling Adjustment" Recession: (April 1960–February
1961)
Duration: 10 months
GDP DECLINE: 1.6%
Peak unemployment rate: 6.9%
Reasons and causes: This recession was also known as the
"rolling adjustment" for many major U.S. industries, including the
automotive industry. Americans began shifting to buying compact
and often foreign-made cars and industry drew down inventories.
Gross national product (GNP) and product demand declined
The Nixon Recession: (December 1969–November 1970)
Duration: 11 months13
GDP decline: 0.6%18
Peak unemployment rate: 5.9%29
Reasons and causes: Increasing inflation caused the
government to employ a very restrictive monetary policy.
The structure of government expenditures added to the
contraction in economic activity

5. The Oil Crisis Recession: (November 1973–March 1975)
Duration: 16 months
GDP decline: 3%
Peak unemployment rate: 8.6%
Reasons and causes: This long, deep recession was brought on
by the quadrupling of oil prices and high government spending
on the Vietnam War. This led to stagflation and high
unemployment . Unemployment finally reached 9% in May of
1975, after the declared end of the recession
The Energy Crisis Recession: (January 1980–July
1980)
Duration: Six months
GDP decline: 2.2%
Peak unemployment rate: 7.8%
Reasons and causes : Inflation had reached 11.1% and the
Federal Reserve raised interest rates and slowed money supply
growth, which slowed the economy and caused unemployment
to rise. Energy prices and supply were put at risk causing a
confidence crisis as well as inflation.
The Iran/Energy Crisis Recession: (July 1981–November
1982)
Duration: 16 months
GDP decline: 2.9%
Peak unemployment rate: 10.8%
Reasons and causes: This long and deep recession was
caused by the regime change in Iran. The world's fourth-
largest producer of oil at the time, the country overthrew its
U.S.-backed government. The "New" Iran exported oil at
inconsistent intervals and at lower volumes, forcing prices
higher . The U.S. government enforced a tighter monetary
policy to control rampant inflation, which had been carried
over from the previous two oil and energy crises. The prime
rate reached 20.5% in 1981.
The Gulf War Recession: (July 1990–March 1991)
Duration: Eight months
GDP decline: 1.5%
Peak unemployment rate: 6.8%
Reasons and causes: Iraq invaded Kuwait. This resulted in a
spike in the price of oil in 1990, which caused manufacturing
trade sales to decline. This was combined with the impact of
manufacturing moving offshore as the provisions of the North
American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) kicked in. In
addition, the leveraged buyout of United Airlines triggered a
stock market crash

6. The 9/11 Recession: (March 2001–November 2001)
Duration: Eight months
GDP decline: 0.3%
Peak unemployment rate: 5.5%
Reasons and causes: The collapse of the dotcom bubble, the
9/11 attacks, and a series of accounting scandals at major U.S.
corporations contributed to this relatively mild contraction of
the U.S. economy. In the next few months, GDP recovered to its
former level.
The Great Recession: (December 2007–June 2009)
Duration: Eighteen months
GDP decline: 4.3%
Peak unemployment rate: 10.0%
Reasons and causes: The collapse of the housing bubble of the
2000s and resulting record foreclosures and a financial crisis
that threw markets worldwide into a tailspin. Oil prices spiked
to record highs by mid-2008 and then crashed, devastating the
U.S. oil industry.

7. CAUSES OF RECESSION
• Currency crisis
• Energy crisis
• War
• Under consumption
• Overproduction
• Financial crisis
• Price of Fuels

8. EFFECTS OF RECESSION
• Bankruptcies
• Credit crunches
• Deflation (or disinflation)
• Foreclosures
• Unemployment

9. GLOBAL RECESSION
• It is rightly said that, “when US sneezes the world
catches the cold”
• Economists at the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) state that a global recession would take a
slowdown in global growth to three percent or
less.
• The IMF estimates that global recessions seem to
occur over a cycle lasting between 8 and 10
years.

10. Recession in India:
• The sectors least affected (directly) by the slowdown are
Pharmaceuticals, Oil &Gas,FMCG, Media & Entertainment
• Those which will feel a moderate impact of the global crises are Power,
Automobiles,Retail, Hospitality and Tourism
• The sectors most severely affected are Banks,Financial Services, Real
Estate, Infrastructure and Information Technology
Affects of recession on Indian business :

11. Global Recession impact on Indian Economy:
India's economy benefited from recent high economic growth which declined greatly due to the global economic crisis. Economic
growth in India during FY2008-09 stood at 6.7%.The global crisis had less impact of India because exports account for only 15%
of India's GDP, less than half the levels of major Asian economic powers such as China and Japan. However, unlike other major
Asian economies, India's government finances were in poor shape and as a consequence, it was not able to enact large-scale
economic stimulus packages. Despite this, from June 2008 to June 2009, industrial production in India grew by 7.1%
Though he ended up being wrong, the former Indian Finance Minister P. Chidambaram once boasted that he expected India's economy to
"bounce back" to 9% during FY2009.India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that the government will take measures to ensure that
the economic growth bounces back to 9%.The Asian Development Bank predicted India to recover from weakening momentum in 4-6
quarters. At the G20 Summit, India called for coordinated global fiscal stimulus to mitigate the severity of the global credit crunch. India
said that it would inject US$4.5 billion into the financial system to help exporters
Some analysts pointed that India's growing trade with other Asian countries, especially China, will help reduce the negative impact
of the crisis. Analysts also said that India's high domestic demand and large infrastructure projects will act as a buffer reducing the
impact of the global downturn on its economy.Economists argued that India's financial system is relatively insulated and its banks
do not have significant exposure to subprime mortgage. In an editorial, the New York Times praised the strong regulations placed on
the Indian banking system by the Reserve Bank of India
In May 2009, India reported an economic growth rate of 5.8%, beating most forecasts.In second quarter of 2009 the Indian economy grew
by 7.9% and gave indications that the Indian economy would scale a growth rate of 7% or above in 2009 and 8-9% in 2010. In the 3rd
Quarter of 2010, the economy had bounced back with a growth rate of 8.8%

12. Major sectors affected by Recession in India:
• Indian Stock Market
• IT and BPO
• Banking
• Real State
• Aviation
• Textile
• Automobile
• Hospitality

13. • https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/past-
recessions.asp
Reference:
• https://www.slideshare.net

14. THANK YOU