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Public Lands Dependence
Developing Statewide Indicators for BLM User Group Dependence
GIS Colorado Summer Meeting Presentation
7 August 2015
John Gioia
WSCU Master in Environmental Management
Phase 1 of BLM Colorado Social
Vulnerability Assessment
Overview
Project
Overview
What is Social
Vulnerability?
Research
Questions
ArcGIS
Analysis
Next Steps
Project Overview
Colorado BLM Social Vulnerability Assessment
• What is the current state of knowledge about
the vulnerability to climate change of public
land-dependent livelihoods in this region?
• What are BLM field offices doing currently in
order to consider the vulnerability of public
land-dependent livelihoods?
Literature Review for Publication, Document
Review for “Grey Literature” Publication
How will land-based livelihoods be
affected by climate change in the context
of BLM management decisions?
Social Science Research: Case Studies at
BLM Field Offices (Gunnison, Little Snake)
What are the characteristics of
dependence on public lands across the
state?
Spatial Analysis
Project Overview
Colorado BLM Social Vulnerability Assessment
Ecology
Society
Hydrology Range health Wildlife
Grazing Recreation Tribal / Cultural
Climate
change
Climate
change
Climate
change
Climate
change
What is Social Vulnerability?
Exposure- The
degree to which a
system is exposed to
climate changes
Sensitivity - The
degree to which a
system is affected by
climate
+
Adaptive Capacity - The
ability of a system to adjust to
climate change
Vulnerability – The degree to
which a system is susceptible or
unable to cope with adverse
effects of climate change.
=
Livestock Ranching
Outdoor Recreation
and Tourism
• Drought
• Change in timing of
spring runoff
• Increasing temperature
• Reduced snowpack
• Extreme precipitation
and soil degradation
• Impacts to fisheries
• Wildfire and other natural
disasters
• Habitat changes that
result in changing species
compositions
• Forest loss due to insect
infestation
• Decreasing soil
moisture
• Increased prevalence
of insects and
disease
• Temperature
extremes
• Increasing pressure
from global markets
• Increasing pressure
to transfer water
rights
• Perceptions of visitors
due to extreme weather
events
• Water restrictions
• Increased visitation
• Shifting land use
policies
• Environmental
policies (e.g.,
Endangered Species
Act)
Socio-economic and
political impacts
Climate-related
impacts
Research Questions
What is Public Lands
Dependence?
Where are grazers
most dependent on
BLM land?
Where are recreation
users most dependent
on BLM land?
How can we compare
dependence on a
statewide basis?
How do we quantify
it?
How do we show it?
Data Sources
User Groups
Recreation Grazing
Rangeland Administration System, BLM Website, BLM State Office
Grazing Dependence
Comparing grazing intensity across Field Offices
• 10 BLM Field Offices in CO
• AUM = Animal Unit Months
• Livestock #, % Public Land
Grazed, # days
Tukey’s HSD Results
Red = P < 0.05
Land Ownership and Forage Dependence
Special Recreation and Event Permits
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Kremmling CO River Valley Tres Rios Gunnison White River Uncompahgre Little Snake Royal Gorge Grand Junction San Luis Valley
SpecialRecreationPermitsandEventPermits
Field Office
Rec. Permits Event Permits
Special Recreation and Event Permit Dependence
Implications and Next Steps
Conduct Case
Studies
Refine GIS
Analysis
Circulate for
Feedback
Setting the
Stage
Quantitative 
Qualitative
Questions, Comments?
Thank
you!!

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Public Lands Dependence (John Gioia)

  • 1. Public Lands Dependence Developing Statewide Indicators for BLM User Group Dependence GIS Colorado Summer Meeting Presentation 7 August 2015 John Gioia WSCU Master in Environmental Management Phase 1 of BLM Colorado Social Vulnerability Assessment
  • 3. Project Overview Colorado BLM Social Vulnerability Assessment • What is the current state of knowledge about the vulnerability to climate change of public land-dependent livelihoods in this region? • What are BLM field offices doing currently in order to consider the vulnerability of public land-dependent livelihoods? Literature Review for Publication, Document Review for “Grey Literature” Publication How will land-based livelihoods be affected by climate change in the context of BLM management decisions? Social Science Research: Case Studies at BLM Field Offices (Gunnison, Little Snake) What are the characteristics of dependence on public lands across the state? Spatial Analysis
  • 4. Project Overview Colorado BLM Social Vulnerability Assessment Ecology Society Hydrology Range health Wildlife Grazing Recreation Tribal / Cultural Climate change Climate change Climate change Climate change
  • 5. What is Social Vulnerability? Exposure- The degree to which a system is exposed to climate changes Sensitivity - The degree to which a system is affected by climate + Adaptive Capacity - The ability of a system to adjust to climate change Vulnerability – The degree to which a system is susceptible or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change. =
  • 6. Livestock Ranching Outdoor Recreation and Tourism • Drought • Change in timing of spring runoff • Increasing temperature • Reduced snowpack • Extreme precipitation and soil degradation • Impacts to fisheries • Wildfire and other natural disasters • Habitat changes that result in changing species compositions • Forest loss due to insect infestation • Decreasing soil moisture • Increased prevalence of insects and disease • Temperature extremes • Increasing pressure from global markets • Increasing pressure to transfer water rights • Perceptions of visitors due to extreme weather events • Water restrictions • Increased visitation • Shifting land use policies • Environmental policies (e.g., Endangered Species Act) Socio-economic and political impacts Climate-related impacts
  • 7. Research Questions What is Public Lands Dependence? Where are grazers most dependent on BLM land? Where are recreation users most dependent on BLM land? How can we compare dependence on a statewide basis? How do we quantify it? How do we show it?
  • 8. Data Sources User Groups Recreation Grazing Rangeland Administration System, BLM Website, BLM State Office
  • 9. Grazing Dependence Comparing grazing intensity across Field Offices • 10 BLM Field Offices in CO • AUM = Animal Unit Months • Livestock #, % Public Land Grazed, # days
  • 11. Land Ownership and Forage Dependence
  • 12. Special Recreation and Event Permits 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Kremmling CO River Valley Tres Rios Gunnison White River Uncompahgre Little Snake Royal Gorge Grand Junction San Luis Valley SpecialRecreationPermitsandEventPermits Field Office Rec. Permits Event Permits
  • 13. Special Recreation and Event Permit Dependence
  • 14. Implications and Next Steps Conduct Case Studies Refine GIS Analysis Circulate for Feedback Setting the Stage Quantitative  Qualitative