SlideShare a Scribd company logo
The year ahead
Public clouds go mainstream
The hybrid chimera
tp://www.flickr.com/photos/dynamosquito/2814125967
“Why do people think this
costs so much to do?”
http://www.flickr.com/photos/divemasterking2000/3946938550/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/27927484@N00/2941917271/
Ultimately, a rebalancing.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rptnorris/3453936781/
Bare
metal
Bare    Virtualization
metal
Bare    Virtualization   Public/private
metal                    hybrid models
Bare    Virtualization   Public/private
                                          IaaS
metal                    hybrid models
<script>
                                                 Hello, world!
                                                 </script>




Bare    Virtualization   Public/private
                                          IaaS       PaaS
metal                    hybrid models
<script>
                                                 Hello, world!
                                                 </script>




                                                                 Mashup,
Bare    Virtualization   Public/private
                                          IaaS       PaaS        RESTful
metal                    hybrid models
                                                                 services
Data centers
                                                   <script>
                                                   Hello, world!
                                                   </script>




                                                                   Mashup,
Bare      Virtualization   Public/private
                                            IaaS       PaaS        RESTful
metal                      hybrid models
                                                                   services
Contracts
                                                 <script>
                                                 Hello, world!
                                                 </script>




                                                                 Mashup,
Bare    Virtualization   Public/private
                                          IaaS       PaaS        RESTful
metal                    hybrid models
                                                                 services
Developers
                                                  <script>
                                                  Hello, world!
                                                  </script>




                                                                  Mashup,
Bare    Virtualization   Public/private
                                          IaaS        PaaS        RESTful
metal                    hybrid models
                                                                  services
http://www.flickr.com/photos/cowcoptim/4104360701/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sharif/2423144088/
Private   Public


SaaS



PaaS



IaaS
Private        Public


SaaS



PaaS             Security fears




IaaS
Private            Public


SaaS
            Lock-in concerns


PaaS



IaaS
Private         Public


SaaS


        Long-term
PaaS        cost
       inefficiencies



IaaS
Private             Public


SaaS



PaaS

        High cost of maintaining &
            scaling machines
IaaS
100



75



50



25



 0

      2008   2009




                    http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461
                    http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
100



75



50
      Taxonomies
        & layers
25



 0

        2008       2009
        What is
      the cloud?


                          http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461
                          http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
100



75



50
                   ROI, TCO,
      Taxonomies
                   business
        & layers
                    cases
25



 0

        2008        2009
        What is      Why
      the cloud?   should I
                    use it?
                               http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461
                               http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
100



75



50
                   ROI, TCO,   Designs &
      Taxonomies
                   business      best
        & layers
                    cases      practices
25



 0

        2008        2009        2010
        What is      Why       How do I
      the cloud?   should I     use it?
                    use it?
                                           http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461
                                           http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
100



75



50
                   ROI, TCO,   Designs &
      Taxonomies                           Business
                   business      best
        & layers                           strategy
                    cases      practices
25



 0

        2008        2009        2010      2011
        What is      Why       How do I What new
      the cloud?   should I     use it? things are
                    use it?             possible?
                                            http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461
                                            http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
100



75



50
                   ROI, TCO,   Designs &
      Taxonomies                           Business                      Policy &
                   business      best
        & layers                           strategy                     standards
                    cases      practices
25



 0

        2008        2009        2010      2011       2012
        What is      Why       How do I What new What must
      the cloud?   should I     use it? things are I still run
                    use it?             possible? in-house?
                                            http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461
                                            http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
Some concluding thoughts
Things I’ve learned in 2 days
Massive disruption on the
horizon


 Clouds are extremely disruptive to the way IT works
Virtualization let the genie
out of the bottle


 Clouds arose from virtualization, which made
 application workloads portable
Clouds start with separation


 Separation is key
 Determines economics, lock-in, responsibility, risk
Business vs. technology

Know the difference
  Clouds-as-tech: Virtualized, automated
  Clouds-as-business: 3rd party, shared
Force others to be clear
Hybrids will be the default

 Too many workloads can’t move
   Technical requirements
   Legal & compliance limitations
 Many services, loosely joined
   SOA and RESTful designed patterns
High

 Technical suitability for migration




Low
                                       Low   Business case for migration   High
High
                                                              Move first. Use
                                                               to showcase
 Technical suitability for migration

                                                              cloud benefits
                                                                 and ROI.




Low
                                       Low   Business case for migration   High
High
                                                                  Move first. Use
                                                                   to showcase
 Technical suitability for migration

                                                                  cloud benefits
                                                                     and ROI.


                                         Don’t move.
                                         Optimize bare
                                             metal,
                                         acceleration,
                                         virtualization.
Low
                                       Low       Business case for migration   High
High
                                              Virtualize,
                                                                     Move first. Use
                                               ensure,
                                                                      to showcase
 Technical suitability for migration

                                              portability.
                                                                     cloud benefits
                                             Monitor cost
                                                                        and ROI.
                                             and pricing.

                                         Don’t move.
                                         Optimize bare
                                             metal,
                                         acceleration,
                                         virtualization.
Low
                                       Low          Business case for migration   High
High
                                              Virtualize,
                                                                     Move first. Use
                                               ensure,
                                                                      to showcase
 Technical suitability for migration

                                              portability.
                                                                     cloud benefits
                                             Monitor cost
                                                                        and ROI.
                                             and pricing.

                                         Don’t move.                Hybridize, make
                                         Optimize bare               portable, seek
                                             metal,                      vertical
                                         acceleration,                “community”
                                         virtualization.                 clouds.
Low
                                       Low          Business case for migration   High
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sparkys/3434382326/
The genie is out of the bottle
Stop looking for a cork; start deciding what to
wish for.
Thanks!
@acroll

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Public clouds go mainstream - october 19 - 10m

  • 1. The year ahead Public clouds go mainstream
  • 3. “Why do people think this costs so much to do?”
  • 8.
  • 10. Bare Virtualization metal
  • 11. Bare Virtualization Public/private metal hybrid models
  • 12. Bare Virtualization Public/private IaaS metal hybrid models
  • 13. <script> Hello, world! </script> Bare Virtualization Public/private IaaS PaaS metal hybrid models
  • 14. <script> Hello, world! </script> Mashup, Bare Virtualization Public/private IaaS PaaS RESTful metal hybrid models services
  • 15. Data centers <script> Hello, world! </script> Mashup, Bare Virtualization Public/private IaaS PaaS RESTful metal hybrid models services
  • 16. Contracts <script> Hello, world! </script> Mashup, Bare Virtualization Public/private IaaS PaaS RESTful metal hybrid models services
  • 17. Developers <script> Hello, world! </script> Mashup, Bare Virtualization Public/private IaaS PaaS RESTful metal hybrid models services
  • 20.
  • 21. Private Public SaaS PaaS IaaS
  • 22. Private Public SaaS PaaS Security fears IaaS
  • 23. Private Public SaaS Lock-in concerns PaaS IaaS
  • 24. Private Public SaaS Long-term PaaS cost inefficiencies IaaS
  • 25. Private Public SaaS PaaS High cost of maintaining & scaling machines IaaS
  • 26. 100 75 50 25 0 2008 2009 http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461 http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
  • 27. 100 75 50 Taxonomies & layers 25 0 2008 2009 What is the cloud? http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461 http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
  • 28. 100 75 50 ROI, TCO, Taxonomies business & layers cases 25 0 2008 2009 What is Why the cloud? should I use it? http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461 http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
  • 29. 100 75 50 ROI, TCO, Designs & Taxonomies business best & layers cases practices 25 0 2008 2009 2010 What is Why How do I the cloud? should I use it? use it? http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461 http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
  • 30. 100 75 50 ROI, TCO, Designs & Taxonomies Business business best & layers strategy cases practices 25 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 What is Why How do I What new the cloud? should I use it? things are use it? possible? http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461 http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
  • 31. 100 75 50 ROI, TCO, Designs & Taxonomies Business Policy & business best & layers strategy standards cases practices 25 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 What is Why How do I What new What must the cloud? should I use it? things are I still run use it? possible? in-house? http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461 http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
  • 32. Some concluding thoughts Things I’ve learned in 2 days
  • 33. Massive disruption on the horizon Clouds are extremely disruptive to the way IT works
  • 34. Virtualization let the genie out of the bottle Clouds arose from virtualization, which made application workloads portable
  • 35. Clouds start with separation Separation is key Determines economics, lock-in, responsibility, risk
  • 36. Business vs. technology Know the difference Clouds-as-tech: Virtualized, automated Clouds-as-business: 3rd party, shared Force others to be clear
  • 37. Hybrids will be the default Too many workloads can’t move Technical requirements Legal & compliance limitations Many services, loosely joined SOA and RESTful designed patterns
  • 38. High Technical suitability for migration Low Low Business case for migration High
  • 39. High Move first. Use to showcase Technical suitability for migration cloud benefits and ROI. Low Low Business case for migration High
  • 40. High Move first. Use to showcase Technical suitability for migration cloud benefits and ROI. Don’t move. Optimize bare metal, acceleration, virtualization. Low Low Business case for migration High
  • 41. High Virtualize, Move first. Use ensure, to showcase Technical suitability for migration portability. cloud benefits Monitor cost and ROI. and pricing. Don’t move. Optimize bare metal, acceleration, virtualization. Low Low Business case for migration High
  • 42. High Virtualize, Move first. Use ensure, to showcase Technical suitability for migration portability. cloud benefits Monitor cost and ROI. and pricing. Don’t move. Hybridize, make Optimize bare portable, seek metal, vertical acceleration, “community” virtualization. clouds. Low Low Business case for migration High
  • 44. The genie is out of the bottle Stop looking for a cork; start deciding what to wish for.

Editor's Notes

  1. Yesterday, I talked about the IT monopoly. IT used to be a barrier to entry -- because it meant you could do something others couldn&amp;#x2019;t: crunch data, assess risk, design a building, sequence a genome
  2. Now, that&amp;#x2019;s a liability; you&amp;#x2019;re paying for things all the time, while your competitors are only paying for them when they need them. It&amp;#x2019;s much cheaper to start a bank today (indeed, I&amp;#x2019;ve talked to some still-stealthy banks that are reconsidering their IT and have completely disruptive economics, while some legacy banks&amp;#x2019; bonds are rated junk.)
  3. But we can&amp;#x2019;t move out of the castle overnight. Ultimately, the move to clouds is a massive rebalancing of IT.
  4. It&amp;#x2019;s a readjustment of what goes where given these new options.
  5. Different applications live in different places in this new world.
  6. Different applications live in different places in this new world.
  7. Different applications live in different places in this new world.
  8. Different applications live in different places in this new world.
  9. Different applications live in different places in this new world.
  10. Different applications live in different places in this new world.
  11. Different applications live in different places in this new world.
  12. Different applications live in different places in this new world.
  13. Different applications live in different places in this new world.
  14. Different applications live in different places in this new world.
  15. Different applications live in different places in this new world.
  16. Some applications, like legacy ERPs or old mainframe tools, won&amp;#x2019;t migrate easily. They&amp;#x2019;re not well suited to a virtualized, on-demand model where users can spin up resources as needed.
  17. Others, like web front-ends or parallel data processing tasks like analytics, that can be split up, work really well in clouds.
  18. Just knowing these two dimensions makes you smarter than nearly everyone in IT right now. And when you&amp;#x2019;re discussing IT, insist that others are specific about what they mean. Discussions around privacy and security are vital to public clouds, but most people don&amp;#x2019;t consider security different in private clouds. Similarly, lock-in is a real concern in PaaS but negligible in IaaS.
  19. Just knowing these two dimensions makes you smarter than nearly everyone in IT right now. And when you&amp;#x2019;re discussing IT, insist that others are specific about what they mean. Discussions around privacy and security are vital to public clouds, but most people don&amp;#x2019;t consider security different in private clouds. Similarly, lock-in is a real concern in PaaS but negligible in IaaS.
  20. Just knowing these two dimensions makes you smarter than nearly everyone in IT right now. And when you&amp;#x2019;re discussing IT, insist that others are specific about what they mean. Discussions around privacy and security are vital to public clouds, but most people don&amp;#x2019;t consider security different in private clouds. Similarly, lock-in is a real concern in PaaS but negligible in IaaS.
  21. Just knowing these two dimensions makes you smarter than nearly everyone in IT right now. And when you&amp;#x2019;re discussing IT, insist that others are specific about what they mean. Discussions around privacy and security are vital to public clouds, but most people don&amp;#x2019;t consider security different in private clouds. Similarly, lock-in is a real concern in PaaS but negligible in IaaS.
  22. Just knowing these two dimensions makes you smarter than nearly everyone in IT right now. And when you&amp;#x2019;re discussing IT, insist that others are specific about what they mean. Discussions around privacy and security are vital to public clouds, but most people don&amp;#x2019;t consider security different in private clouds. Similarly, lock-in is a real concern in PaaS but negligible in IaaS.
  23. Just knowing these two dimensions makes you smarter than nearly everyone in IT right now. And when you&amp;#x2019;re discussing IT, insist that others are specific about what they mean. Discussions around privacy and security are vital to public clouds, but most people don&amp;#x2019;t consider security different in private clouds. Similarly, lock-in is a real concern in PaaS but negligible in IaaS.
  24. Just knowing these two dimensions makes you smarter than nearly everyone in IT right now. And when you&amp;#x2019;re discussing IT, insist that others are specific about what they mean. Discussions around privacy and security are vital to public clouds, but most people don&amp;#x2019;t consider security different in private clouds. Similarly, lock-in is a real concern in PaaS but negligible in IaaS.
  25. One of the fundamentals of a cloud is the separation of the provider from the user at some layer in the stack Where that separation happens determines economics, responsibilities, risk, and lock-in
  26. It will probably wind up looking like airlines.