This document discusses navigating uncertainty during times of change using a "product mindset". It outlines issues companies may face like decreased customer demand, supply chain issues, and reduced productivity. It acknowledges the "valley of doubt" companies now find themselves in due to lack of confidence and knowledge. It promotes adopting a mindset focused on curiosity, clarity, creativity, and customers. Specific approaches discussed include assessing product market fit, understanding the current environment, portfolio analysis, embracing new opportunities, transparency, and learning early and often. The goal is to pivot and experiment rather than maintain the status quo during turbulent times.
4. Issues & Impact
Issue Impact Likelihood
Customer
demand
Revenue / profit down Who knows?!
Supply chain Not meeting customer demand Who knows?!
Productivity Overall output down Who knows?!
Funding
Businesses falling over left right
and center
Who knows?!
20. What are you thinking?!
“I’m good! I’ve got a Product Manager!”
“I’m good! I AM a Product Manager!”
“Sh*t! I don’t have a Product Manager!”
“Sh*t! My Product Manager isn’t that good (yet)!”
“Don’t have a product person but have a Project Manager”
23. What are you afraid of?!
Commercial - Demand going down
Financial - Bottom line will be screwed
Morale - Uncertainty, anxiety through the roof
Collaboration - We will become disjointed
Operational - Our supply chain will come to a halt
All of the above and more!
33. What IS STOPPING
YOU?!
Speed - Unable to move fast and iterate
Process - Need to jump through hoops
Customer - No direct access to learn how we can help
Data - Lack of data or ‘analysis paralysis’
34. “Bad companies are destroyed by crises;
Good companies survive them;
Great companies are improved by them.”
Andy Grove
36. Curios
ity
Look critically at your product and business model:
* Is your product still relevant in the current environment?
* For the same customers? Do they still care (and pay as much)
* Do we need to reassess the balance of our portfolio?
* Are they are still willing to pay (as much) for your product?
* Do our original priorities still hold true? Why (not)?
* Is our playing field still the same?
Custo
mer+
43. Creativ
ity
Embrace new constraints and opportunities:
* What changes in market trends and people behaviour do you
* How will these affect your business? Risk vs Revenue?
* Can we learn fast from a new situation, and mitigate risk?
* How can best adapt our ways of working?
Clarity+
47. 5. TRANSPARENCY
1. Reach agreement with each other about transparency:
“Should I tell you what I really think?”
“Do you feel free to tell me what you really think?”
2. Identify + communicate transparency boundaries:
Legal (e.g. listed company, privacy laws) or matters of a
personal nature.
3. Communicate goals + progress - early and often:
For instance through product retrospectives, dashboards,
decision logs, etc.
49. We have a choice
Business As Usual Break The Rulebook
Survival
Keeping The Lights On
Big Projects & Programmes
Cover Your Ass
Play It Safe
Ignore Hierarchy
Pivot
Iterate
F**k Convention
Experiment 24/7
50. NEXT STEPS
Customer - Are you fulfilling customer needs?
Curiosity - What is the first thing you need to learn?
Clarity - Are you taking people on the (same) journey?
Creativity - What are the risk(s) you will take? Why?
53. FURTHER LEARNING
De Beers “Innovation in Turbulent Times”
Product / Market Fit Survey
BCG Growth Share Matrix
Jeff Patton - Dual Track Development
Jeff Gothelf - Hypothesis Prioritization
Refer to the leadership panel where I asked product leaders about their 1 word to describe the past few weeks …
Not to mention …. Morale -> individual and team
Dunning - Kruger Effect -> (Over) confident when we start something new, which confidence could well be inverted in the current scenario:
https://twitter.com/adammgrant/status/939493949374390272
Opposite or inverted Dunning - Kruger Effect -> (Over) confident when we start something new, which confidence could well be inverted in the current scenario -> start widening up, adjusting to fresh challenges
https://twitter.com/adammgrant/status/939493949374390272
Shift from old paradigm to new (or not)
Accepting or rejecting change -> Andy Grove “Only The Paranoid Survive”
New ways of serving customers?
Competing in new ways or new fronts?
Reject change, maintain status quo
As product managers we always look for (hidden) assumptions, things to go wrong, unknowns …
Stress that this uncertainty is the not that different for non-crisis time when we develop and manage products …
Stress that this uncertainty is the not that different for non-crisis time when we develop and manage products …
Stress that this uncertainty is the not that different for non-crisis time when we develop and manage products …
My point is that product managers, good ones anyway, will bring this mindset and its 4 components, especially in the face of uncertainty. They will be comfortable flying in the face of uncertainty, and iterating on the product and its underlying business model over the coming weeks, months and learning about / from (target) customers. And I think that’s what’s needed, now more than ever:
‘Whose problem is it anyway?!’
Definitely worth pushing them on this one. No one 'owns' the customer. Anyone involved in building a product should meet the people they are building for and understand their problems or needs.
Customer - Be ruthless about customer needs; what will deliver value to the customer and value to our business - short and long term.
Is it problem looking for a customer -> Think “Juicero” or Krawler knee pads for babies (Adam Neumann, ex WeWork)
Curious - About your customer, wider market, your business, your product, data, and the ‘why’ behind these things. What problem are you looking to solve, why, for whom?
Especially now, clarity of direction about the product is critical, e.g. communicating what we’re doing and not doing (and why).
Empathise and collaborate with a wide range of people in and outside the business, knowing that people will be looking at you for product direction and decisions about the product or the customer experience.
You don’t have to become a strategy consultant to think ahead, assess / take risks and prioritise the challenges or opportunities on the way to achieving the vision for the product or business. Can we build any sustainable moats or differentiators?
Includes clarity of COMMUNICATION:
People generally find it hard to challenge their own and others assumptions, people like to be nice and make people happy. When you have the product mindset, things become less about being liked but being respect for your opinions, suggestions and challenges.
The key thing then, is to create an environment where people feel comfortable challenging each other on ideas, pushing for evidence / data to support, and kick things around a bit before committing to them.
Explain that you don’t need to be an artist to be creative. Creativity is about creating things that weren’t there before, ‘building the unprecedented’ or solving problems. Unusual ideas!
Creativity is an intangible phenomenon and can’t be captured in checklists or fixed processes. Especially when working on problems that haven’t yet been solved (successfully) you will need to think in novel and unexpected ways.
My point is that product managers, good ones anyway, will bring this mindset and its 4 components. They will be comfortable flying in the face of uncertainty, and iterating on the product and its underlying business model over the coming weeks, months and learning about / from (target) customers. And I think that’s what’s needed, now more than ever:
I’m not a clairvoyant but I think that at this point in the presentation you might be thinking one of three things (and we’ll do a quick poll or temperature check online):
Que: “I’m good! I’ve got a product manager” or “I’m good! I am a product manager” (picture of a smug face)
Que: “Fuck, I don’t have a product manager or my product manager isn’t that good (yet)” (picure of sad face -> raise funds to hire an expensive product person)
Que: “I don’t have a product manager but I have a project manager, will that do?!” or “I am a project manager, I can deliver successful projects” (picture of table comparing product vs project management + me to explain)
Even if you are feeling smug because you are a product manager or have a product manager in your business - perhaps a whole team of them - this is by no means a guarantee for success:
You or your product manager might not have fully developed the product mindset
And anyway, product management is a team sport! -> the value and impact of the product mindset gets exponentially stronger the more people have and apply it!
Take a moment to reflect and assess. Put it in the chat if possible.
I stopped sleeping altogether!
Examples: Glofox, Cuvee and Spiffy and their response to the current challenges, constraints and uncertainties.
Que: Glofox -> Normal state -> explain challenge and constraint
Que: new state
Que: Cuvee -> Normal state -> explain challenge and constraint
Que: new state -> Shop Cuvee
Que: Spiffy -> Normal state -> explain challenge and constraint
Que: new state
Cuvee diversified
Examples: Glofox, Cuvee and Spiffy and their response to the current challenges, constraints and uncertainties.
Que: Glofox -> Normal state -> explain challenge and constraint
Que: new state
Que: Cuvee -> Normal state -> explain challenge and constraint
Que: new state -> Shop Cuvee
Que: Spiffy -> Normal state -> explain challenge and constraint
Que: new state
Glofox provides infrastructure for gyms and fitness franchises to manage bookings. Around 10 million classes were booked were booked using the programme last year.
Glofox provides infrastructure for gyms and fitness franchises to manage bookings. Around 10 million classes were booked were booked using the programme last year.
https://support.glofox.com/hc/en-us/articles/360007414338-How-to-Market-Your-Online-Workouts-During-the-COVID-19-Outbreak
https://dealers.tovfurniture.com/showroom
https://www.forbes.com/sites/oracle/2020/07/23/how-three-companies-adapted-as-covid-19-changed-their-sectors/
“Consumers who have never thought of purchasing furniture online suddenly had no choice. This may have accelerated the shift toward ecommerce for furniture by four or five years, but we don’t know how everything will settle once we get past this time.”
That shift bodes well for TOV, whose furniture has been sold mostly through ecommerce partners such as Wayfair.com under private labels. TOV has one showroom, in High Point, North Carolina, and operates some pop-up stores within brick-and-mortar furniture retailer locations. Selling directly to consumers hasn’t been a big part of its business—until the pandemic.
Doubling down on online sales, but also dealing directly with customers -> impact on customer support
What can we learn from these examples? How did these businesses apply the product mindset:
Creativity - Glofox example -> finding a creative solution to a new, unprecedented constraint (i.e. all if us having to stay at home).
Curiosity - Early on in the COVID19 crisis, Top Cuvee learned from its customers that they no longer cared as much about fine dining meals and all the wanted was things like hand sanitisers etc.
Curious - About your customer, wider market, your business, your product, data, and the ‘why’ behind these things.
Customer - Be ruthless about customer needs; what will deliver value to the customer and value to our business - short and long term. Spiffy -> What is the most important thing to be disinfected at the moment?! Storefronts and warehouses.
Strategic (Clarity) - You don’t have to become a strategy consultant to think ahead, assess / take risks and prioritize the challenges or opportunities on the way to achieving the vision for the product or business. Can we build any sustainable moats or differentiators?
Clarity - Communicate, Empathise and collaborate with a wide range of people in and outside the business, knowing that people will be looking at you for product direction and decisions about the product or the customer experience. You don’t need to be a product manager for that!
Take a moment to reflect and assess what is stopping you from moving quickly and adapting quickly in the face of unforeseen circumstances or uncertainty.
Opportunity to improve existing pain-points and seize on new opportunities
What would a Product Manager do?! How would you apply the product management mindset?
Challenge your Assumptions: Be Honest! (moment of reckoning)
- Look critically your current business model, does it still solve the same problems in the current environment, and is it what your customers STILL care about, given what might be going on?
Based on you challenging your assumptions:
Are there changes to the product, or new services you could offer to solve newly discovered problems?
Assumptions
And work backwards … The vision of your business might well remain unchanged but you might need to change your product or ways of working to adjust to the changed environment or changed customer needs.
Survey to existing customers, mention current ASOS surveys
Is our playing field still the same? Is our product still relevant?
Andy Grove, Six Forces Diagram -> "exposing ourselves to the winds of change”
Is our playing field still the same? What are our competitors (not) doing? Our suppliers?
Low Growth, High Share. Companies should milk these “cash cows” for cash to reinvest.
High Growth, High Share. Companies should significantly invest in these “stars” as they have high future potential.
High Growth, Low Share. Companies should invest in or discard these “question marks,” depending on their chances of becoming stars.
Low Share, Low Growth. Companies should liquidate, divest, or reposition these “pets.”
Market / external environment
- What changes in people behaviour / habits, wants and needs, might impact your business, what opportunities are there as companies look to limit risk for the future and learn from the events of this year?
- Enabling Remote working
- Focus on automation
Data!
- Find data to support your own ideas, and challenge others to do the same. Businesses may have less room to get away with expensive failures now more than ever.
Ignore competency or previous success
Accept any constraints or the current situation as is and use as a breeding ground for creative ideas and solutions, unusual ideas
Embrace constraints
Going straight from ‘business as usual’ to ‘break the rulebook’ might be too much of a stretch
Realistically:
> aim for the middle to begin with
In reality, I expect / hope that most companies and their products will at least up in the middle, meaning that they will try new things, iterate and learn whilst keeping a close eye on overall business health and sustainability.
Ask yourself: what are you going to do (more of) when you go back to work tomorrow?
Are you genuinely delivering value to the customer?
Take a moment to reflect and assess what is stopping you from moving quickly and adapting quickly in the face of unforeseen circumstances or uncertainty.
Clarity - Are you taking people - internally and externally - on the same journey?
Don’t be a kamikaze!
Business don’t have to act like kamikazes, taking blind and irresponsible risks - financially, with the customer, reputation, etc. By contrast, if we all apply the product mindset, it means we will learn early and often, and constantly identify and mitigate risk whist supporting each other through difficult or uncertain times.