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Proactive Management of Operational Risk
                                April 19th, 2012
Evolution of Risk




Market   Credit     Operational
 Risk     Risk         Risk




           Page 2
Operational Risk

                           Internal fraud
  Safety
 violation
                                      External fraud


                                                       Execution
                                  System
                                  failure
 Failed
products

             Physical
              asset
             damage



                        Page 3
Operational Risk


“The risk of loss resulting from
      inadequate or failed
     internal processes,
     people and systems
  or from external events.”



       Source: Basel Committee
                 Page 4
Areas of Loss
  Basel Committee’s
                              People                    Processes                   Systems             External Events
Potential Areas of Loss


Internal Fraud                  Insider trading, employee theft



External Fraud                                                                           Robbery, computer hacking


Employment Practices          Discrimination, violation of organized
and Workplace Safety             labor activities, safety violations


Clients, Products, and             Negligent failure to meet a
Business Practices                   professional obligation


Damage to                                                                                                      Natural
Physical Assets                                                                                          disaster, terrorism


Business Disruption
                           Hardware/software failures, utility outages
and System Failures


Execution, Delivery, and       Data entry errors, incomplete legal documentation, incorrect
Process Management             valuation, exceeding limits or controls , compliance violations




                                                         Page 5
Cost of Losses


        Direct Costs                              Indirect Costs
 Cost to fix: Internal                      Enhancement of controls
  investment or payments to                  Preventative action
  third-parties
                                             System upgrades or
 Write-downs: Loss or                        enhancement
  impairment of assets
                                             Process improvement
 Resolutions: Correcting the
                                             Lost or forgone revenue
  consequences
                                             Brand value loss
 Public relations: Cost to
  address loss with stakeholders




                                   Page 6
Potential Loss – FERC Penalties

      FERC Civil Penalties ($MM)
300

250

200

150

100

50

 0
         2007




                  2008




                           2009




                                           2010




                                                  2011




                                                           2012
                                  Page 7
Potential Loss – Dodd Frank Impact


 The Edison Electric Institute recently
       estimated that Dodd-Frank
mandates, which may require electric
  utilities to post margin on over-the-
  counter transactions, would have a
negative average annual cash flow
 impact of $250-$400 million per
                   utility

                  Page 8
Potential Loss / Expense – Cyber Threats


In January 2012, US FBI director Robert
 Mueller testified before the US Senate
 Select Committee on Intelligence that
  cyber threats, both espionage and
disruption, by both rogue hackers and
foreign governments, would surpass
terrorism as the country’s top concern


                    Page 9
Planning for Risk


                                     Operational
                                    Risk Capability


             Requirements &
“Snapshot”                          Gap Analysis         Roadmap
                Impact




                          Page 10
Take a “Snapshot”
              Requirements     Gap
 “Snapshot”                             Roadmap
                & Impact     Analysis




 Accountability and oversight model

 Supporting processes

 Technology architecture

 In-flight efforts




                                                  Page 11
Qualify the Impact
              Requirements     Gap
 “Snapshot”                             Roadmap
                & Impact     Analysis




 Business requirements
   − Strategy
   − Process
   − Technology
   − Capabilities


 Pending regulation or market change

 Risks to organization, process, and technology




                                                  Page 12
Map the Gaps
                               Gap
 “Snapshot”   Requirements              Roadmap
                             Analysis




 Approximate costs and potential benefits

 Identify big opportunities and low hanging fruit

 Prioritize gaps




                                                  Page 13
Plan Ahead
                               Gap
 “Snapshot”   Requirements              Roadmap
                             Analysis




 Develop enhancement strategy

 Estimate budget

 Develop business case

 Develop implementation plan




                                                  Page 14
What Will Your Future Look Like?


                                Regulatory changes


                    Industry dynamics
                                          Competitive pressures
Market volatility




                            Page 15
Thank You!




Questions?
   Page 16
Appendix - Case Study Example
                             Communication Risk Assessment
Situation
The power merchant group within a global energy company
needed an executive-level view of operational
processes, with a focus on key nodes of communication
and potential risks due to outages of those nodes


Outcome
 Detailed risk assessment
 Risk heat map
 Path forward

                             Page 17

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Proactive Management of Operational Risk

  • 1. Proactive Management of Operational Risk April 19th, 2012
  • 2. Evolution of Risk Market Credit Operational Risk Risk Risk Page 2
  • 3. Operational Risk Internal fraud Safety violation External fraud Execution System failure Failed products Physical asset damage Page 3
  • 4. Operational Risk “The risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events.” Source: Basel Committee Page 4
  • 5. Areas of Loss Basel Committee’s People Processes Systems External Events Potential Areas of Loss Internal Fraud Insider trading, employee theft External Fraud Robbery, computer hacking Employment Practices Discrimination, violation of organized and Workplace Safety labor activities, safety violations Clients, Products, and Negligent failure to meet a Business Practices professional obligation Damage to Natural Physical Assets disaster, terrorism Business Disruption Hardware/software failures, utility outages and System Failures Execution, Delivery, and Data entry errors, incomplete legal documentation, incorrect Process Management valuation, exceeding limits or controls , compliance violations Page 5
  • 6. Cost of Losses Direct Costs Indirect Costs  Cost to fix: Internal  Enhancement of controls investment or payments to  Preventative action third-parties  System upgrades or  Write-downs: Loss or enhancement impairment of assets  Process improvement  Resolutions: Correcting the  Lost or forgone revenue consequences  Brand value loss  Public relations: Cost to address loss with stakeholders Page 6
  • 7. Potential Loss – FERC Penalties FERC Civil Penalties ($MM) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Page 7
  • 8. Potential Loss – Dodd Frank Impact The Edison Electric Institute recently estimated that Dodd-Frank mandates, which may require electric utilities to post margin on over-the- counter transactions, would have a negative average annual cash flow impact of $250-$400 million per utility Page 8
  • 9. Potential Loss / Expense – Cyber Threats In January 2012, US FBI director Robert Mueller testified before the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that cyber threats, both espionage and disruption, by both rogue hackers and foreign governments, would surpass terrorism as the country’s top concern Page 9
  • 10. Planning for Risk Operational Risk Capability Requirements & “Snapshot” Gap Analysis Roadmap Impact Page 10
  • 11. Take a “Snapshot” Requirements Gap “Snapshot” Roadmap & Impact Analysis  Accountability and oversight model  Supporting processes  Technology architecture  In-flight efforts Page 11
  • 12. Qualify the Impact Requirements Gap “Snapshot” Roadmap & Impact Analysis  Business requirements − Strategy − Process − Technology − Capabilities  Pending regulation or market change  Risks to organization, process, and technology Page 12
  • 13. Map the Gaps Gap “Snapshot” Requirements Roadmap Analysis  Approximate costs and potential benefits  Identify big opportunities and low hanging fruit  Prioritize gaps Page 13
  • 14. Plan Ahead Gap “Snapshot” Requirements Roadmap Analysis  Develop enhancement strategy  Estimate budget  Develop business case  Develop implementation plan Page 14
  • 15. What Will Your Future Look Like? Regulatory changes Industry dynamics Competitive pressures Market volatility Page 15
  • 17. Appendix - Case Study Example Communication Risk Assessment Situation The power merchant group within a global energy company needed an executive-level view of operational processes, with a focus on key nodes of communication and potential risks due to outages of those nodes Outcome  Detailed risk assessment  Risk heat map  Path forward Page 17