The document discusses the role of agriculture in development processes based on perspectives from development literature and international experiences over the past 25-30 years. It notes that while agriculture traditionally played a passive role, more recent evidence shows it can play an active role in supporting industrialization and structural transformation if agricultural growth induces urban-industrial growth. However, many countries in Africa failed to successfully transform due to various challenges. The global context today faces three major crises - finance, food, and climate change - which impact the role of agriculture. In Mozambique, agriculture's contribution to GDP decreased from 1997-2001 but has since stabilized.
Characteristics of underdeveloped economiesGeorgi Mathew
discussing the features of under developed or developing countries with special reference to India. helpful for school and college who try to understand the characteristics of Indian economy from the angle of developing economy.
Characteristics of underdeveloped economiesGeorgi Mathew
discussing the features of under developed or developing countries with special reference to India. helpful for school and college who try to understand the characteristics of Indian economy from the angle of developing economy.
NEW AGRICULTURAL POLICY OF INDIA 2000, POWER POINT PRESENTATIONDebanjanMondal10
This slide content new agricultural policies of india that was taken in the year of 2000, in the aim of gaining production of 4% in every year till 2020.The whole information has been given on that slide,helps one to get complete knowledge of new policies,and its applications.
The Role of agriculture in economic development - in TanzaniaElisha Magolanga
Agriculture continues to provide livelihood for about 80% of the labour force despite the trends towards income diversification and urbanization (Bryceson 1999; GoT 2011). The majority of farmers are smallholders who rely on traditional methods in cultivation and livestock-keeping. The average farm size is less than two hectares per household. Since the mid-1980s, the growth in domestic food production has lagged behind the population growth which has been over 2.5% annually. Especially the per capita production of fresh vegetables, roots and tubers has declined while wheat imports have grown manifold (Haapanen, 2011).
Trade policies in developing countries have been central to the analysis of international development economists over the past decades. The desire for rapid economic growth in developing countries has raised many questions about the relationship between trade and growth. This PPT examines the fact that the policies adopted in many developing countries have often been very different from those emanating from rational allocation models and have provided researchers/ students with a wide scope for analyzing their effects.
This reduction in supply along with the support by a number of Government schemes, including MGNREGA has led to an escalation in farm wages which is adversely impacting the profitability of the farmer. Rural wages have been growing by 17% on average since 2006-07 outstripping urban wages. At the same time, the increase in wages, without an increase in productivity, is fueling inflation.
This topic looks at one of the strategies used by farmers and small firms in the agribusiness sector to leverage cost, access markets and become competitive in the market. Emphasis was made on the use of contract farming (vertical linkage) and cooperatives (horizontal linkage).
Agricultural trade has been an important contributor in Bangladesh to improved food security and price stability. For example, private sector imports have assured a price ceiling at import parity levels in the aftermath of major floods in 1998 and 2004. As the global price crisis has shown, however, the positive experiences with private trade might not completely eliminate the role of public food stocks. While Bangladesh is a net agricultural importer, it has also been successful in exporting cereals and high-value products such as shrimp and fish. This success has partly been due to preferential trade agreements. However, further investments are needed to assure that Bangladesh can adhere to increasing quality and safety standards and to prepare for a more liberalized international trade environment, once the Doha trade negotiations are finalized.
Dr. Katundu is a lecturer at the Moshi Co-operative University (MoCU). He works under the Department of Community and Rural Development specializing in the area of rural development. He holds a PhD and Master of Arts in Rural development from the Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA), Morogoro Tanzania and a Bachelor of Arts (Hons) in Geography and Environmental Studies from the University of Dar-Es-Salaam, Tanzania. His research interests include: Agriculture and rural development, rural land reform, rural livelihoods and cooperatives, community driven development, environment and natural resource management, entrepreneurship development, impact evaluation. His PhD thesis is titled: Entrepreneurship Education and Business Start Up: Assessing Entrepreneurial Tendencies among University Graduates in Tanzania whereas; Master dissertation is titled: Evaluation of the Association of Tanzania Tobacco Traders’ Reforestation Programme: The Case of Urambo District.
NEW AGRICULTURAL POLICY OF INDIA 2000, POWER POINT PRESENTATIONDebanjanMondal10
This slide content new agricultural policies of india that was taken in the year of 2000, in the aim of gaining production of 4% in every year till 2020.The whole information has been given on that slide,helps one to get complete knowledge of new policies,and its applications.
The Role of agriculture in economic development - in TanzaniaElisha Magolanga
Agriculture continues to provide livelihood for about 80% of the labour force despite the trends towards income diversification and urbanization (Bryceson 1999; GoT 2011). The majority of farmers are smallholders who rely on traditional methods in cultivation and livestock-keeping. The average farm size is less than two hectares per household. Since the mid-1980s, the growth in domestic food production has lagged behind the population growth which has been over 2.5% annually. Especially the per capita production of fresh vegetables, roots and tubers has declined while wheat imports have grown manifold (Haapanen, 2011).
Trade policies in developing countries have been central to the analysis of international development economists over the past decades. The desire for rapid economic growth in developing countries has raised many questions about the relationship between trade and growth. This PPT examines the fact that the policies adopted in many developing countries have often been very different from those emanating from rational allocation models and have provided researchers/ students with a wide scope for analyzing their effects.
This reduction in supply along with the support by a number of Government schemes, including MGNREGA has led to an escalation in farm wages which is adversely impacting the profitability of the farmer. Rural wages have been growing by 17% on average since 2006-07 outstripping urban wages. At the same time, the increase in wages, without an increase in productivity, is fueling inflation.
This topic looks at one of the strategies used by farmers and small firms in the agribusiness sector to leverage cost, access markets and become competitive in the market. Emphasis was made on the use of contract farming (vertical linkage) and cooperatives (horizontal linkage).
Agricultural trade has been an important contributor in Bangladesh to improved food security and price stability. For example, private sector imports have assured a price ceiling at import parity levels in the aftermath of major floods in 1998 and 2004. As the global price crisis has shown, however, the positive experiences with private trade might not completely eliminate the role of public food stocks. While Bangladesh is a net agricultural importer, it has also been successful in exporting cereals and high-value products such as shrimp and fish. This success has partly been due to preferential trade agreements. However, further investments are needed to assure that Bangladesh can adhere to increasing quality and safety standards and to prepare for a more liberalized international trade environment, once the Doha trade negotiations are finalized.
Dr. Katundu is a lecturer at the Moshi Co-operative University (MoCU). He works under the Department of Community and Rural Development specializing in the area of rural development. He holds a PhD and Master of Arts in Rural development from the Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA), Morogoro Tanzania and a Bachelor of Arts (Hons) in Geography and Environmental Studies from the University of Dar-Es-Salaam, Tanzania. His research interests include: Agriculture and rural development, rural land reform, rural livelihoods and cooperatives, community driven development, environment and natural resource management, entrepreneurship development, impact evaluation. His PhD thesis is titled: Entrepreneurship Education and Business Start Up: Assessing Entrepreneurial Tendencies among University Graduates in Tanzania whereas; Master dissertation is titled: Evaluation of the Association of Tanzania Tobacco Traders’ Reforestation Programme: The Case of Urambo District.
Presentation for the Stakeholders Consultation Workshop on "Cambodia Agriculture in Transition: Opportunities and Risks"; given on September 18, 2013 in Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Keynote: Growth, Structural Transformation and DevelopmentUNU-WIDER
Keynote at The Third Voice of Social Sciences Conference (VSS) on Industrialization and Social Transformation University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, 24-25 November 2016
Launch of Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa BookUNU-WIDER
On 22 April 2016 UNU-WIDER visits the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency to launch the new open access book Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa. Resulting from UNU-WIDER’s project on ’Reconciling Africa’s growth, poverty and inequality trends: growth and poverty’— the book provides a comprehensive re-examination of Africa’s growth, poverty and inequality trends. While the economic growth renaissance in sub-Saharan Africa is widely recognized, much less is known about progress in living conditions. This book comprehensively evaluates trends in living conditions in 16 major sub-Saharan African countries, corresponding to nearly 75% of the total population.
Finn Tarp - Development aid and economic policy: getting the analytics and gu...UNU-WIDER
Presenting at the Ministry for Foreign Affairs event, Development aid and economic policy - Getting the analytics and guiding principles right, UNU-WIDER Director Finn Tarp delivers his farewell speech on 17 December 2018.
After almost ten years as Director, Finn Tarp will step down from his role at the end of 2019. Under his directorship UNU-WIDER has conducted policy relevant-research on a range of issues at the centre of the UN sustainable development agenda, including finance, food and climate change, and transformation, inclusion and sustainability.
In his farewell lecture Finn Tarp reflects on the work of the ReCom project, discussing how five generations of aid research have finally converged towards a meaningful consensus to the question of whether development aid works, and provides a broad set of principles for future development policy.
Immigration and the Labor Market Outcomes of Natives in Developing Countries:...UNU-WIDER
The presentation discusses the effects that immigration has had on labour market outcomes of native-born black South Africans using South African census data from 2001, 2007, and 2011.
Aid and Growth in Perspective - Lecture by Finn TarpUNU-WIDER
A lecture by Professor Finn Tarp, UNU-WIDER Director, on 5 April 2018 at the Paris Sorbonne Sustainable Development Seminar on the topic ’Aid and Growth in Perspective’.
Development and Poverty in the Sub-Saharan and Northern AfricaUNU-WIDER
Through outlining historical and macro-economic background in African development and looking at structural transformation that has taken place on the continent, implications for policymaking and implementation are offered.
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What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
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Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
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Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
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@Pi_vendor_247
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
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3. Traditional views (from theory and empirics)
• Ricardo and colleagues
• The Lewis two‐sector model
• The linkage literature
• Falling relative share of agriculture
• All this tended to suggest a passive and at best a supportive
role
4. The basis for a positive role
• Classical paradigm of positive role of ag in development (1960s)
• Agricultural growth in support of industrialization through the
agricultural transformation (ADLI) (Asian examples)
• How the structural transformation works:
– Agricultural growth induces urban‐industrial growth through
capital, labor, foreign exchange, and market contributions
• Industry (starting with agribusiness) grows faster than agriculture
• As a consequence, the shares of agriculture in aggregate
employment and GDP decline due to success in triggering GDP
growth, not due to failure to grow.
8. But Africa experienced many challenges
• Many implementation failures (1970s)
• Import Substitution Industrialization failed
• Many failures in agriculture‐based projects
• Too complex, insufficient support
• Integrated rural development to meet
broadened development objectives (McNamara
1973) ineffective:
– Underestimate emerging private sector roles
– Overestimate state capacity to coordinate
– Undermine cooperative producer organizations
9. And we also saw
• 20 years of neglect under structural adjustment and Washington
Consensus (1985‐2005)
• Adjust the macro‐fundamentals but no sectoral policy
• Industrialize through open economy not agriculture
• Plus for example:
– Descale the role of the state in agriculture, despite pervasive market
failures
– Reduce rural poverty through transfers instead of autonomous
incomes
– Investment in agriculture discouraged by low international commodity
prices (OECD) & adverse environmental effects
– Sharp decline in public expenditures on agriculture
– Sharp decline in overseas development assistance to agriculture
• So what was the outcome?
10. So failed transformation in Africa in general: Labour displaced
from agriculture without associated growth in GDP per capita
11. Plus another type of failed transformation: Growth
without transformation
12. In effect there are (at least) three types of economies (with associated
roles of agriculture in development)
AZE
BDI
BEN
BFA
BGD
BGR
BLR
BOLBRA
CHL
CHN
CIV
CMR
COL
DOM
ECU
EGY
ETH
GHA
GTM
HND
HUN
IDN
IND
IRN
KEN
KHM
LAO
LKA
MAR
MDG
MEX
MLI
MOZ
MWI
NER
NGA
NPL
PAK
PER
PHL
POL
PRY
ROM
RUS
RWA
SEN
SLV
THA
TJK
TUN
TUR
TZA
UGA
UKRVEN
VNM
YEM
ZAF
ZMB
AGO
ARG
CZE
DZA
GIN
MYS
PNG
SDN
SVK
SYR
TCD
TGO
ZAR
ZWE
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Rural poor/total poor, 2002
Poverty data from Ravallion et al. 2007
Other predicted poverty data
Dynamic analysis
Urbanized countries
Agriculture-based
countries
Transforming
countries
70-75
90-96
Indonesia
(1970-96)
Brazil
(1970-96)
India
(1965-94)
China
(1981-2001)
Source: World Bank, World Development Report 2008.
Y-axis: ag contribution to growth:
1990-2005
13. Role of agriculture fundamental but it differs …
• Agriculture based economies: growth
– Agriculture essential for growth: large
– Importance for food security and poverty
• Transforming countries: equality
– Rapidly growing non‐ag
– Agriculture key to reduce imbabalance + marginalization
• Urbanized economies: inclusion
– Sub‐sectors with comparative advantage
– Include small holdes as suppliers
22. Agricultural productivity: two types of farming
(1) Highly efficient agriculture of developed countries and high output per
worker
(2) Inefficient and low‐productivity agriculture of developing countries
• Between the extremes: developing regions e.g. regions in India, Brazil,
export‐oriented sectors in Latin‐America and Asia : reach higher
agricultural productivity levels and growth!
• Agricultural productivity and productivity growth low especially in Sub‐
Saharan Africa
23. Agriculture value
added
($ per agricultural
worker)
2003-05
Cereal production
Yields
(in kilo per
hectare)
2003-05
Thailand 554 3,044
Vietnam 182 4,641
Indonesia 421 4,278
Ethiopia 64 1,213
Tanzania 167 1,403
Mozambique 83 925
Uganda 101 1,559
Kenya 169 1,682
Denmark 22,260 6,088
Source: World Development Report 2008, selected indicators
Productivity examples
x 348
x 40
labour
productivity
land
productivity
24. The risk averse peasant and technology choice
Not necessarily: uncertainties (e.g.
weather, price), imperfect
information, transactions costs, lack
of access to credit and insurance
The peasant tries to maximise not
income but the chance of the
family’s survival => rational
Min.
desirable
consump.
Minimum
consump.
Production/consum.
Time
Technology A
Technology A: Low yield, little
variation
Technology B
Technology B: High yield, big
variation
Yield
Probability
Technology
A
Technology
B
Is resistance to technological
innovation due to lack of rationality
or incompetence?
25. What else causes low output growth in low-
productivity subsistence farming
1) Large amounts of land sometimes available, only small parts can be
cultivated: traditional tools (e.g. hoe, ax, knife, …). Use of animals
sometimes impossible because of tsetse fly, lack of fodder in dry season =>
agriculture depends on applying human labour only to small plots of land.
2) Due to limited amount of land cultivated and tools used, small areas tend to
be cultivated intensely => rapidly diminishing returns to labour. Best farming
method is shifting cultivation (i.e. once minerals drawn from soil, new land
cleared and cultivated while old land can recover and be used again later). If
fallow time long enough, manure and chemical fertiliser would be
unnecessary.
3) Seasonality: scarcity of labour in busy parts of the season (planting,
weeding) while underemployed at other times.
Net result: constant level of agricultural output and labour productivity…as
long as population size stable …
28. IMFForecast
-4-202468
RealGDPAnnualGrowth(%)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
World Advanced Economies
Emerging and Developing Economies
Source:IMF World Economic Outlook Database October (2009)
Real GDP Growth in World and Major Economic Groupings (1970-2014)
Present economic downturn deepest in 60 years, and no region
untouched + a lot speculation as to recovery28
29. IMFForecast
-11.89
-2.66
-0.93
0.24
First Oil Crisis
Second Oil Crisis
Dot Com Bubble
Financial Crisis
-15-10-5051015
TradeVolume(AnnualPercentageChange)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
World Trade Volume
Source:IMF World Economic Outlook Database October (2009)
World Trade Volume (1970-2014)
World trade has experienced its sharpest decline in decades + uncertain
future
30. 2.98
-0.71
IMFForecast
-10123
NetPrivateCapitalFlows(%ofGDP)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Net Private Capital Flows
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Data Base April (2009)
Net Private Capital Flows to Emerging and Developing Economies (1990-2014)
Net private capital flows to the South have fallen
dramatically
32. 050100150200250
IndicesofMarketPrices(2005=100)
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Rice Wheat
Maize Soybeans
Source : IMF Primary Commodity Price Data Base
Note: Rice:Thailand(Bangkok); Wheat:US Gulf ; Maize:US ; Soybeans: US
Cereal Prices in Indices of Market Prices (1957-2008)
Food prices soared in 2007‐2008 and then fell back: prospects?
33. Underlying factors
• Food price developments reflect:
– Low priority to agriculture/food production
– Shifting demand patterns
– Biofuels (+ lack of research in alternative energy
sources)
• Underlying structural drivers behind 2007‐2008 spike
remain in place – if growth resumes food prices likely
to increase again
• Global food architecture not geared to deal with
supply shortages – governments may intensify
protection to try to satisfy domestic consumers
34. Responses
• National responses to food crisis have varied
• Africa: Macro‐policies main tool to limit impact of world price
shocks
• Elsewhere: Greater focus on social protection
• But too much social protection ad hoc, stop‐go, high cost – needs
to be systematic
• A double bind:
– If recovery stalls: new trade and financial shocks
– If recovery is sustained: food and energy prices will climb and hit
energy and food importers
• Need for public action – but fiscal space limited in the smaller and
poorer economies
36. Climate change (1)
• Present global growth model clearly unsustainable –
the challenges are unprecedented
• To respond, the world must transform existing energy
systems (mitigation) and simultaneously adapt to the
climate change that is already built into global
climate (adaptation)
• Failure in shifting from fossil‐fuel dependence evident
in run‐up in oil price prior to the financial crisis (due
to lack of investment in energy research)
37. 020406080100120140
US$PerBarrel
01jan1998 01jan2000 01jan2002 01jan2004 01jan2006 01jan2008 01jan2010
Daily
Note:Oil prices refer to Brent; US dollars per barrel
Source:US Department of Energy
Oil Prices ( January 1998 to October 2009)
Huge run‐up, then a fall as recession set in – but ...?
38. Climate change (2)
• If growth resumes energy prices will move back up
• Places huge burdens on poor countries – a range of fiscal effects,
which make states more aid‐dependent, not less
• Costs far exceed current level of aid:
– Per annum mitigation in developing countries by 2030: USD
140‐175 billion
– Per annum adaptation costs by 2050: USD 30‐109 billion
– Aid is presently around USD 100 billion in total
• Climate change finance is as fragmented as traditional aid, will
funding be additional, and who takes control of supply (how much
voice for the South?)
• Climate change financing seen as compensation – but aid
processes remain conditional
40. The Role of Agriculture in Mozambique
• The contribution of agriculture to GDP decreased
significantly from 1997 to 2001, before immediately
increasing again. Since recovery from the 2000 floods, the
contribution of all sectors has stayed quite stable.
35 35 35 31 29 24 23 28 28 27 27 28 28 30 31 32 32
15 16 18 22 23 25 26
23 26 27 25 26 26 24 24 23 24
51 48 47 47 49 51 52 49 46 45 48 46 46 46 45 45 44
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sectoral Contributions to GDP
Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) Industry, value added (% of GDP) Services, etc., value added (% of GDP)
Source: World Bank Mozambique Metadata
41. Public expenditure in agriculture
• State support to agriculture has not achieved the 10% Maputo Declaration target
– the average empirical value attained by ‘transforming’ economies over the last
30 years.
• Actual expenditure of budget increases have tended to remain unfulfilled
• The large budgets in 2003 and 2004 can be attributed to the rehabilitation of the
Massingir Dam, and the Chokwe Irrigation Scheme in 2006 and 2007 – accounting
for a large part of the budget
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Share of Agriculture in the Total Budget Share of Actual Agricultural Expenditure in Total
Maputo Declaration Target ‐ 10%
Source: Public expenditure review ‐ MozSAKSS
(2011)
42. Levels of staple crop production
• Maize continues to be most produced staple crop
• Production levels have shown no signs of increase over the last 10 years
• Rainfall and weather patterns continue to heavily influence staple crop production
(2005 and 2006)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012
Kg Per Capita
'000 Tonnes
Millet
Sorghum
Rice
Maize
Staple Production p/c
Staple Production p/c (Rural)
Source: TIA/IAI
43. Staple crop productivity (kg/ha)
• Maize productivity levels still fluctuating and much below potential
• Rice productivity stagnation
• Sorghum and millet productivity levels fluctuate with no trend of
improvement
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2002 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012
Crop Yield (Kg/Ha)
Maize
Rice
Sorghum
Millet
Source: TIA/IAI
44. Input use
• Extremely low utilisation of agricultural inputs
• No evidence of improvement
• Not uniformly distributed throughout the country...
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012
% of Input Use
Improved Seed
Fertilisers
Pesticides
Animal traction
Irrigation
Source: TIA/IAI
46. Land use
• Average farm size falling in the South – labour shortages, rural to urban
migration
• Increasing average farm size in Zambézia and Nampula
• Low levels of land registration nationally. Improved vastly in Maputo
Province (25% in 2012) time, greater competition over land?
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012
Average size of area cultivated (Ha)
Average Cultivated Area per Household
North
Centre
South
National
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
2002 2005 2008 2012
% of Farmers with Registered Land
DUAT Registration
Source: TIA/IAI Source: TIA/IAI
47. Services (%)
• Large fall in farmers receiving extension advice throughout the country
• Farmers receiving price information decreased in the north, but rose in
the centre and south
• Association membership increased slightly nationally, yet fell drastically
in Maputo province
• Emergency seed reception fell in the centre and south, and was already
initially very low in all other areas of the country
EXTENSION ADVICE RECEIVED PRICE INFO ASSOCIATION MEMBER RECEIVED CREDIT EMERGENCY SEEDS
2002‐06 2007‐12 2002‐06 2007‐12 2002‐06 2007‐12 2002‐06 2007‐12 2002‐06 2007‐12
Niassa 14.5 9.4 40.7 34.3 6.7 5.9 7.5 3.3 3.0 3.7
Cabo Delgado 14.9 6.3 43.4 35.8 4.5 4.7 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.0
Nampula 15.2 9.1 62.7 43.5 6.4 7.8 3.6 3.8 2.4 1.2
Zambézia 9.5 7.4 26.1 37.7 3.8 7.6 0.9 1.6 4.1 3.2
Tete 16.3 11.9 37.5 46.3 5.0 4.9 7.7 6.6 4.8 5.5
Manica 12.6 7.2 43.3 46.1 4.7 5.8 1.3 3.4 5.4 2.3
Sofala 20.4 11.2 46.2 50.4 3.2 4.8 4.5 3.1 9.8 6.3
Inhambane 7.2 6.5 23.3 29.9 2.6 6.2 1.1 3.1 3.7 2.4
Gaza 16.7 6.5 24.8 31.3 9.3 8.0 2.5 2.4 12.0 5.7
Maputo 11.6 7.2 21.5 32.8 15.2 8.0 2.9 2.0 18.5 2.7
Total 13.4 8.3 39.6 39.6 5.3 6.6 3.1 3.1 4.8 3.2
Increase > 5 %
Increase 3 ‐ 5%
Decrease 3 ‐ 5 %
Decrease > 5 %
BOLD values show usage
above national average
Source: TIA/IAI
48. Cash crop producers
• Overall fall in farmers cultivating tobacco, whilst soybean is emerging as a
viable cash crop
• No major identifiable trends
• National level statistics disguise important provincial level trends...
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012
% of Farmers Cultivating Crop
Cotton
Tobacco
Sunflower
Sesame
Soybean
Source: TIA/IAI
50. Cash crop production
• Soybean growth enormous between 2002 and 2012 ( >700%); 59% of the total production was in
Tete in 2012, 24% in Zambézia
• Sesame production has more than doubled; 25% of production in Sofala in 2012, 23% in Nampula
• Large fall in tobacco production from 2006 peak; 49% of production in Tete in 2012, 38% in Niassa
• Cotton has remained relatively stable; 27% of production in both Tete and Nampula in 2012
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012
Index = 100
Cotton
Tobacco
Sunflower
Sesame
Soybean
Index = 100
Source: TIA/IAI
51. Characteristics of productive maize
farmers (2002-12)
• The top 20% productive maize farmers are much more productive than other
maize farmers
• Inverse relationship between maize productivity and the area cultivated (maize
area and total area)
• Farmers who use fertiliser and pesticides are more productive
• Hired workers and cash crops are associated with higher maize productivity
Maize
Productivity
Quintiles
Maize Yield
(Kg/Ha)
Maize Area
(Ha)
Total
Cultivated
Area (Ha)
Fertiliser Use
(%)
Pesticide Use
(%)
Hire Worker?
(%)
Cultivate Cash
Crop? (%)
1 – Lowest
Yield
73 0.8 1.8 1.8 3.3 16.1 42.2
2 272 0.8 1.8 3.1 4.6 19.2 45.6
3 514 0.7 1.7 3.9 6.7 20.6 48.8
4 912 0.6 1.6 5.9 7.0 24.5 51.4
5 – Highest
Yield
2981 0.4 1.4 7.5 7.9 30.3 57.9
Source: TIA/IAI
52. Looking closer at the most productive 20%
• The most productive farmers have generally become less concentrated in Niassa and Nampula,
with Tete and Manica possessing a higher proportion. The share in Maputo province has
increased dramatically.
• The most productive farmers in Tete and Manica use more improved seeds and sell increasing
amounts of maize.
• The total area farmed by the most productive farmers decreased significantly nationwide,
except in Nampula, Zambézia and Sofala.
• The percentage of the most productive farmers selling maize has fallen in most parts of the
country – significantly in Manica, yet increased in Nampula and Inhambane. This implies that
those who do sell maize are selling much more of it.
PROVINCIAL DISTRIBUTION
OF TOP 20% MAIZE FARMERS (%)
IMPROVED SEEDS (%) TOTAL AREA (ha)
FARMER SELLS MAIZE
(%)
MAIZE SOLD (KGS)
2002‐06 2007‐12 2002‐06 2007‐12 2002‐06 2007‐12 2002‐06 2007‐12 2002‐06 2007‐12
Niassa 32 24 11 7 1.70 1.61 35 34 175 447
Cabo Delgado 19 17 3 8 1.51 1.26 32 30 158 259
Nampula 25 17 10 10 1.17 1.33 34 40 150 474
Zambézia 20 22 11 11 1.39 1.43 52 49 227 442
Tete 22 27 22 26 2.07 1.64 27 21 471 1050
Manica 25 26 19 26 1.68 1.46 59 36 433 1119
Sofala 20 19 11 11 1.54 1.67 39 33 279 504
Inhambane 5 7 9 9 1.02 0.92 9 18 50 311
Gaza 9 13 12 16 1.17 0.93 13 5 85 169
Maputo 14 25 25 14 0.80 0.42 16 11 116 395
Total 20 20 13 15 1.48 1.39 38 33 239 586
Increase > 5 %
Increase 3 ‐ 5%
Decrease 3 ‐ 5 %
Decrease > 5 %
BOLD values show above
average
Source: TIA/IAI
53. Comparing the top 20% with the rest
• In general, the most productive maize farmers produce and sell significantly more maize,
using less land.
• This is particularly apparent in Tete (where higher levels of fertiliser use is found) and in
Manica.
• The difference in the quantity of maize produced did not change much over time, yet the
quantity of maize sold more than doubled, especially in Tete and Manica.
• More farmers with higher maize yields sell their produce and cash crops than others
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TOP 20% PRODUCTIVE MAIZE FARMERS AND THE BOTTOM 80%, OVER TIME
AVERAGE MAIZE PRODUCTION (KGS) AV. MAIZE SOLD (KGS)
FARMER SOLD MAIZE
(%)
SELLS CASH CROP (%) USE FERTILISER (%)
2002‐06 2007‐12 2002‐06 2007‐12 2002‐06 2007‐12 2002‐06 2007‐12 2002‐06 2007‐12
Niassa + 1233 + 828 + 73 + 238 + 11 + 14 + 6 + 7 + 4 + 3
Cabo Delgado + 489 + 479 + 104 + 124 + 12 + 16 + 1 + 11 0 + 1
Nampula + 327 + 421 + 85 + 316 + 12 + 20 + 6 + 5 + 1 + 4
Zambézia + 511 + 515 + 136 + 278 + 17 + 15 + 9 + 4 + 2 + 1
Tete + 1340 + 1055 + 385 + 730 + 12 + 13 + 14 + 8 + 13 + 11
Manica + 1154 + 1195 + 299 + 851 + 32 + 19 + 7 + 5 + 1 ‐ 1
Sofala + 704 + 813 + 221 + 327 + 21 + 18 + 10 + 12 ‐ 1 + 2
Inhambane + 255 + 404 + 43 + 227 + 6 + 12 + 2 + 1 ‐ 1 + 3
Gaza + 976 + 673 + 73 + 16 + 9 + 2 0 + 1 + 4 + 6
Maputo + 910 + 319 + 97 + 125 + 12 + 8 + 3 + 7 0 + 4
Total + 777 + 744 + 167 + 406 + 18 + 16 + 9 + 7 + 3 + 4
BOLD values
show above
average
differences
Source: TIA/IAI
55. What can we say about jobs?
• Diagnosis and analysis based on existing
quantitative evidence
• Four nationally representative micro-surveys:
1996/97, 2002/03, 2008/09 living standards household
surveys
2004/05 labour force survey
• National accounts: value added by sector
57. Why is the jobs and ag. agendas important?
• Demographic dynamics unavoidable
c. 300,000 new entrants/year to labour market, many unskilled
• Growth of higher productivity firms (e.g., mining) good
for aggregate macro/fiscal indicators
BUT will have minimal direct positive effect on poverty reduction
without employment growth
• Raising productivity in household agriculture a powerful
lever for reducing poverty
BUT not so far transformative in itself on aggregate
58. Strategic policy priorities
• Leverage natural resources to stimulate pro-jobs
structural transformation (an opportunity) -> time to
scale up
• Specifically aim for:
Employment growth in higher value secondary
and tertiary industries
Step-increase in agricultural productivity
BOTH commercial and smallholder
agriculture encouraging links between
them
Export push (outside of natural resources)
• NOT an agenda of neutral or marginal improvements –
decisive transformation required