Presentation on population ageing and implications for UK workforce plus employer and employee awareness of issues involved in multi-generation workforce

1. What will the future
workforce look like?
Mark Beatson
Chief Economist, CIPD

2. Fertility rates have been falling
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0 1920
1922
1924
1926
1928
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
Year of birth of woman
Cohort-specific final fertility rate
Source: Office for National Statistics

3. Life expectancy is rising
60
65
70
75
80
85 1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Average years life expectancy at birth
Men
Data are three year centred moving averages
Source: Office for National Statistics
Women

4. Employment rates by age
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mar-May1992
Oct-Dec1992
May-Jul1993
Dec-Feb1994
Jul-Sep1994
Feb-Apr1995
Sep-Nov1995
Apr-Jun1996
Nov-Jan1997
Jun-Aug1997
Jan-Mar1998
Aug-Oct1998
Mar-May1999
Oct-Dec1999
May-Jul2000
Dec-Feb2001
Jul-Sep2001
Feb-Apr2002
Sep-Nov2002
Apr-Jun2003
Nov-Jan2004
Jun-Aug2004
Jan-Mar2005
Aug-Oct2005
Mar-May2006
Oct-Dec2006
May-Jul2007
Dec-Feb2008
Jul-Sep2008
Feb-Apr2009
Sep-Nov2009
Apr-Jun2010
Nov-Jan2011
Jun-Aug2011
Jan-Mar2012
Aug-Oct2012
Mar-May2013
Oct-Dec2013
May-Jul2014
Dec-Feb2015
16-17
18-24
Source: Office for National Statistics
25-34
35-49
50-64
65+

5. -677
-94
1,387
770
-305
186
1,235
1,956
15-24 25-49 50-64 65+
Illustrative projections of change in employment by age
group from 2012 baseline (‘000s)
2022 2032
Sources: CIPD calculations based on ONS 2012 Principal population projections and revised mid-year estimates for 2002
and 2007 , employment rates for May-Jul 2002 and 2012 based on the Labour Force Survey and CIPD assumptions for
employment rates for 2017 onwards.
The workforce will be bigger … but older

6. With more migrants?
0~
50
100
150
200
250
YE
Jun
05
YE
Dec
05
YE
Jun
06
YE
Dec
06
YE
Jun
07
YE
Dec
07
YE
Jun
08
YE
Dec
08
YE
Jun
09
YE
Dec
09
YE
Jun
10
YE
Dec
10
YE
Jun
11
YE
Dec
11
YE
Jun
12
YE
Dec
12
YE
Jun
13
YE
Dec
13
YE
Jun
14
YE
Dec
14
In-migration to the UK for work reasons (‘000s)
EU15 EU8 EU2 Non-EU
Rolling twelve month cumulative total, excludes British citizens
Source: Office for National Statistics

7. And more highly qualified …
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2002 2012 2022
UK economically active population by qualification level (‘000s)
Postgraduate
HE qualified
A Level/NVQ3
GCSE /NVQ2
Basic (<GCSE)/NVQ1
No/entry level
Source: UKCES Working futures

8. Our research
Based on questions placed in our
regular surveys of employers
(CIPD Labour Market Outlook
2013/14, n = 935) and employees
(CIPD Employee Outlook
2013/14, n = 2,691)

9. Expected retirement ages of employees by
current age
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Under 60 61-65 66-70 71-75 75+
%
Expected retirement age
18-24 years old 25-34 years old 35-44 years old
45-54 years old 55+ years old
Source: CIPD Employee Outlook survey, winter 2013/14

10. Employer response to population ageing
13%
15%
6%
15%
31%
6%
14%
Don't know
Don't think we have considered the issue
We are not aware of any challenges which
might emerge
We have considered possible implications but
not found a need to modify the way we do…
We deal with issues as they arise
A business case for a strategy is being
developed
We have a strategy agreed at Board level
which informs what we do
Source: CIPD Labour Market Outlook, winter 2013/14

11. Employer views of benefits and challenges of
working with colleagues of different ages
55%
14%
9% 7% 6% 4% 3% 1% 1%
17%16%16%15%13%11%
5% 3% 2% 1% 1%
CHALLENGES
Source: CIPD Labour Market Outlook, winter 2013/14
BENEFITS

12. Employee views of benefits and challenges of
working with colleagues of different ages
72%
66%
41%
32%
20%
7% 6%
32%31%29%28%
22%
9% 9% 8%
CHALLENGES
Source: CIPD Employee Outlook, winter 2013/14. Respondents could select more than one
benefit/challenge
BENEFITS

13. Employer support for employees with caring
responsibilities
39%
30%
14% 13%
10%
32%
4%
36%
61%
53%
28%
23% 23%
55%
11% 11%
61%
43%
14%
20% 19%
47%
1%
20%
Flexible
working to
help with
childcare
Flexible
working to
help with
elder care
Access to
childcare
information
Access to
elder care
information
Access to
information
about
caring for
someone
with
disability
Flexible
working
available
to all
employees
Employee
carer
networks
None - no
provisions
in place
Private sector Public sector Voluntary sector
Source: CIPD Labour Market Outlook, winter 2013/14