Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Ensuring further-success-oecd-economic-survey-australia-2018

11,713 views

Published on

Presentation of the 2018 OECD economic survey of Australia

Published in: Economy & Finance
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Ensuring further-success-oecd-economic-survey-australia-2018

  1. 1. OECD OECDEconomics 2018 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF AUSTRALIA Paris, 10 December 2018 Ensuring further success www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-australia.htm
  2. 2. 2 27 years of robust economic growth 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Index 1975 = 100Index 1975 = 100 Annual GDP last dipped in 1991 Source: OECD Analytical Database. Gross Domestic Product (real)
  3. 3. 3 Incomes continue to rise 90 95 100 105 110 115 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 Real GDP per capita AUS EA OECD USA Index 2005 = 100 Source: OECD Analytical Database.
  4. 4. 4 Unemployment is falling 3 4 5 6 7 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Source: Thomson Reuters. Rate of unemployment (unemployed persons as % of labour force)
  5. 5. 5 The quality of life is good 31 23 12 11 11 10 7 7 5 1 1 Work & life balance Personal security Jobs & earnings Education & skills Income Housing Subjective well-being Social connections Environmental quality Civic engagement & governance Health status Country rankings (1 to 35) Indicators of well-being 20% top performers 60% middle performers 20% bottom performers Australia Source: OECD Better Life Index 2017 database.
  6. 6. Monetary policy, housing market and financial regulation 6
  7. 7. Housing markets are beginning to cool 7 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 House prices in major cities Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Index 2005Q1 = 100 Source: Thomson Reuters.
  8. 8. Household debt remains high 8 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 AUS USA ESP CAN Household liabilities as a % of net household disposable income Source: OECD Analytical Database.
  9. 9. Recommendations on monetary policy, housing market and financial regulation • In the absence of a downturn, gradually increase interest rates • Be prepared for a possible significant correction in the housing market, including bail-in plans in the case of bank insolvency • Assure strong accountability, transparency and competition in the financial sector including an appropriate response to the banking Royal Commission 9
  10. 10. Fiscal policy, tax and spending reform 10
  11. 11. The federal budget position has improved 11 Federal budget balance, % of GDP -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19 2020-21 Notes: The balance shown is the “underlying cash balance”, which a main reference balance in federal-government budgeting. It is equal to receipts less payments, less net Future Fund earnings. The dotted line indicates the federal government’s balance projections. Source: Commonwealth (federal) Budget 2018-19.
  12. 12. Australia’s goods and services tax remains low 12 Standard rates of Value Added Tax/Goods and Services Tax, 2018 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 CAN JPN CHE AUS KOR NZL MEX ISR LUX TUR CHL DEU OECD AUT EST FRA SVK GBR BEL CZE LVA NLD ESP ITA SVN IRL POL PRT FIN GRC ISL DNK NOR SWE HUN %% Source: OECD Tax Database.
  13. 13. Recommendations on fiscal policy, tax and spending reform • Ensure fiscal balances remain on track to reach surplus (“budget repair”) • Further shift the tax mix from direct taxes (corporate and personal) and inefficient taxes (including real-estate stamp duty) and towards the Goods and Services Tax and land taxes • Make public services more effective, notably those in health care and long-term care that were flagged by the Productivity Commission 13
  14. 14. Deepening skills to take advantage of globalisation and technological change 14
  15. 15. There are more jobs for the high skilled 15 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Low skill Medium skill High skill Changes in employment share, 2001 to 2016, percentage points Source: HILDA database and OECD calculations (see Sila and Dugain, 2018a).
  16. 16. Many tasks are being automated 16 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 KOR FIN EST ISR BEL JPN FRA SWE CHL IRL TUR AUS DNK CAN NOR ESP USA OECD GBR NZL NLD POL SVN GRC AUT DEU ITA CZE High risk of automation (>70%) Risk of significant change (50-70%) Notes: Jobs are at high risk of automation if the likelihood of their job being automated is at least 70%. Jobs at risk of significant change are those with the likelihood of their job being automated estimated at between 50 and 70%. Source: OECD calculations based on the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) 2012, 2015; and Arntz, M., T. Gregory and U. Zierahn (2016), “The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 189. Share of jobs at risk of automation, %
  17. 17. Student performance needs to be improved 17 (8) (9) (9) (12) (18) 485 500 515 530 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Average mathematics scores from the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) OECD AUS Notes: The number in parentheses indicates Australia’s ranking among OECD countries Source: OECD Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2015.
  18. 18. Recommendations on deepening skills • Continue focus on disadvantaged students in early childhood education and schools • Improve basic-skills provision in VET education and reducing policy bias in favour of university education • Provide better information for education choices including through a single information platform 18
  19. 19. Increasing inclusiveness to avoid groups being left behind 19
  20. 20. Employment among women can be boosted 20 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 GRC ITA ESP IRL AUS USA OECD GBR DEU BEL FRA CAN FIN NLD AUT PRT DNK % Employment rates for women (25-54 years old) with at least one child aged 0-14 years Year 2014 Source: OECD Family Database.
  21. 21. The indigenous population remains significantly disadvantaged 21 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 15-64 year-olds Male Female Employment rate Life expectancy Continuing gaps for the indigenous population Indigenous Non-Indigenous Source: Closing the gap: Prime Minister’s report 2018. (%) (Years)
  22. 22. Recommendations on increasing inclusiveness • Incentivise jobactive providers to achieve longer job retention, provide better quality training and on-the- job support • Focus further on lone-parents in terms of childcare availability and affordability, and career guidance and training • Give indigenous communities a greater role in policy design and implementation 22
  23. 23. Urban environments matter 23
  24. 24. Australia is highly urbanised 24 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Queensland New South Wales Victoria South Australia Western Australia % Share of population in greater capital city areas % of state population Year 2016 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
  25. 25. Metropolitan populations are growing rapidly 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Greater Sydney Greater Melbourne Greater Brisbane Greater Adelaide Greater Perth Australia % growth in population over the period Recent and upcoming population growth 2006-2016 2016-2026
  26. 26. Congestion is lengthening commutes 26 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: VicRoads: traffic monitor. Average travel speed on Melbourne’s freeways during the afternoon peak, km/h
  27. 27. Government investment is being ramped up 27 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 % of GDP Total government investment spending Source: OECD Analytical Database.
  28. 28. Recommendations on urban environments • Improve infrastructure project selection by raising the prominence of cost-benefit analysis and economic returns • Improve road charging, including distance charging and urban congestion charging • Strengthen urban-area governance through greater leadership from federal and state initiatives and the amalgamation of small local authorities 28
  29. 29. Improving environmental policy 29
  30. 30. 30 A sizeable challenge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 1990 1993 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 MtCO2-equivalentMtCO2-equivalent Greenhouse gas emissions 2017 projections Trajectory to minus 28% target Target is for 26 - 28 % reduction in 2005 level by 2030 MtCO2-equivalent: millions of tonnes of carbon-dioxide and equivalent emissions Source: Department of the Environment and Energy.
  31. 31. Recommendations on environmental policy • Stabilise and strengthen climate-change policy. Develop and implement a national, integrated energy and climate policy framework for 2030 • Strengthen priority on biodiversity in project approval and land use 31
  32. 32. 32 For more information….. Disclaimers: The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Visit the OECD Economics department website to download this presentation; an overview of the 2017 Economic Survey of Australia and more www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-australia.htm OECD OECD Economics follow us on Twitter https://oecdecoscope.wordpress.com/ Keep up with the latest ideas with the OECD Economics department Blog

×