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2016 09-29 gci summit v10

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These remarks were presented at the Global Cities Summit on September 29, 2016.

Published in: Economy & Finance
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2016 09-29 gci summit v10

  1. 1. GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVE A J O I N T P R OJ ECT O F B R O O K I N GS A N D J P M O R GA N C H AS E AMY LIU Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program @amy_liuw Global Cities Summit September 29, 2016
  2. 2. GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVE A J O I N T P R OJ ECT O F B R O O K I N GS A N D J P M O R GA N C H AS E AMY LIU Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program Redefining Global Cities @amy_liuw Global Cities Summit September 29, 2016
  3. 3. How global cities can become more competitive 3 The seven types of global cities 2 What makes a global city? 1
  4. 4. What makes a global city? 1
  5. 5. U.S. employment 135 million 140 million 200820042000 7.4 million jobs lost The U.S. economy experienced severe job losses
  6. 6. 2008 7.4 million jobs lost 20122010 BROOKINGS | July 2010 1 Export Nation: How U.S. Metros Lead National Export Growth and Boost Competitiveness Emilia Istrate, Jonathan Rothwell, and Bruce Katz “To reset its eco- nomic trajectory, the United States needs to connect the macroeco- nomic goal of increasing ex- ports with the metropolitan reality of export production.” Findings An analysis of the location of production of U.S. exports, particularly in the nation’s 100 largest metro areas in 2008, and between 2003 and 2008 reveals that: n Increasing the nation’s exports holds out the potential of generating a significant number of good-paying jobs in the United States. All told, U.S. exports supported 11.8 million jobs nationally and 7.7 million jobs in the top 100 metro areas in 2008. These jobs amounted to 8.3 percent of the nation’s employment and 8.1 percent of all employment in the largest 100 metros in 2008. These are direct jobs in companies that sell abroad and, to some extent, indirect jobs in firms that are part of the supply chain of exporting companies. n The largest 100 metropolitan areas produce most of the nation’s exports. Home to 65 percent of the nation’s population, the 100 largest metropolitan areas produced an esti- mated 64 percent of U.S. exports in 2008, including 62 percent of U.S. manufactured goods and 75 percent of services. Export activity is highly concentrated. The 10 metropolitan areas with the highest value of exports produced about 43 percent of all the top 100 metro areas’ exports in 2008, even though they contain just 38 percent of the population. n Strong manufacturing and patent producing metropolitan areas generate the highest shares of exports from their output. Manufacturing industries are the most export oriented, so metropolitan areas that specialize in manufacturing tend to export the largest shares of their GMP. Export-oriented metropolitan areas are also significantly more innovative, as defined by their rate of patent production. This may be explained by existing evidence that more innovative firms are more likely to export internationally and that activity reinforces innovation through competition. n Four metropolitan areas doubled the real value of their exports between 2003 and 2008. Houston doubled exports largely through sales of chemicals, while Wichita, KS doubled exports based on its powerful aviation cluster. Computer and electronics led the doubling of Portland’s exports. New Orleans also doubled the value of its exports over the period, driven largely by oil refining. n Export intensive industries pay higher wages than domestic oriented industries in large metropolitan areas. In an analysis of the 94 of the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for every $1 billion in exports of a metro area industry, workers in that industry earn roughly 1 to 2 per- cent higher wages. Even those exporting industry workers without high school diplomas earn a higher wage. This wage effect can be seen even adjusting for worker characteristics, occupa- tion, or the characteristics of the metropolitan area. n Future export growth will come increasingly from large emerging markets. Though Canada and Mexico are the nation’s two largest trading partners, U.S. exports to Brazil, India, and China (the so-called BIC countries) have been increasing rapidly during the last decade, doubling in size between 2003 and 2008. The BIC countries are expected to account for about a fifth of the global gross domestic product in 2010, surpassing the United States for the first time. The metropolitan areas that produce the largest U.S. exports to the BICs are well-positioned to take advantage of the growth of these countries. To reset its economic trajectory, the United States needs to connect the macroeconomic goal of increasing exports with the metropolitan reality of export production. Public and private sector leaders at the metro level need to collaborate and engage actively to leverage already extant export concentrations to create good paying jobs at home. Export Nation: How U.S. cities can lead national export growth
  7. 7. 2008 7.4 million jobs lost 20122010 T E N S T E P S T O D E L I V E R I N G A S U C C E S S F U L M E T R OE X P O R T P L A N BROOKINGS | July 2010 1 Export Nation: How U.S. Metros Lead National Export Growth and Boost Competitiveness Emilia Istrate, Jonathan Rothwell, and Bruce Katz “To reset its eco- nomic trajectory, the United States needs to connect the macroeco- nomic goal of increasing ex- ports with the metropolitan reality of export production.” Findings An analysis of the location of production of U.S. exports, particularly in the nation’s 100 largest metro areas in 2008, and between 2003 and 2008 reveals that: n Increasing the nation’s exports holds out the potential of generating a significant number of good-paying jobs in the United States. All told, U.S. exports supported 11.8 million jobs nationally and 7.7 million jobs in the top 100 metro areas in 2008. These jobs amounted to 8.3 percent of the nation’s employment and 8.1 percent of all employment in the largest 100 metros in 2008. These are direct jobs in companies that sell abroad and, to some extent, indirect jobs in firms that are part of the supply chain of exporting companies. n The largest 100 metropolitan areas produce most of the nation’s exports. Home to 65 percent of the nation’s population, the 100 largest metropolitan areas produced an esti- mated 64 percent of U.S. exports in 2008, including 62 percent of U.S. manufactured goods and 75 percent of services. Export activity is highly concentrated. The 10 metropolitan areas with the highest value of exports produced about 43 percent of all the top 100 metro areas’ exports in 2008, even though they contain just 38 percent of the population. n Strong manufacturing and patent producing metropolitan areas generate the highest shares of exports from their output. Manufacturing industries are the most export oriented, so metropolitan areas that specialize in manufacturing tend to export the largest shares of their GMP. Export-oriented metropolitan areas are also significantly more innovative, as defined by their rate of patent production. This may be explained by existing evidence that more innovative firms are more likely to export internationally and that activity reinforces innovation through competition. n Four metropolitan areas doubled the real value of their exports between 2003 and 2008. Houston doubled exports largely through sales of chemicals, while Wichita, KS doubled exports based on its powerful aviation cluster. Computer and electronics led the doubling of Portland’s exports. New Orleans also doubled the value of its exports over the period, driven largely by oil refining. n Export intensive industries pay higher wages than domestic oriented industries in large metropolitan areas. In an analysis of the 94 of the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for every $1 billion in exports of a metro area industry, workers in that industry earn roughly 1 to 2 per- cent higher wages. Even those exporting industry workers without high school diplomas earn a higher wage. This wage effect can be seen even adjusting for worker characteristics, occupa- tion, or the characteristics of the metropolitan area. n Future export growth will come increasingly from large emerging markets. Though Canada and Mexico are the nation’s two largest trading partners, U.S. exports to Brazil, India, and China (the so-called BIC countries) have been increasing rapidly during the last decade, doubling in size between 2003 and 2008. The BIC countries are expected to account for about a fifth of the global gross domestic product in 2010, surpassing the United States for the first time. The metropolitan areas that produce the largest U.S. exports to the BICs are well-positioned to take advantage of the growth of these countries. To reset its economic trajectory, the United States needs to connect the macroeconomic goal of increasing exports with the metropolitan reality of export production. Public and private sector leaders at the metro level need to collaborate and engage actively to leverage already extant export concentrations to create good paying jobs at home. Export Nation: How U.S. cities can lead national export growth
  8. 8. 2008 7.4 million jobs lost 20122010 GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVE AJoint Project of Brookings and JPMorgan Chase T E N S T E P S T O D E L I V E R I N G A S U C C E S S F U L M E T R OE X P O R T P L A N BROOKINGS | July 2010 1 Export Nation: How U.S. Metros Lead National Export Growth and Boost Competitiveness Emilia Istrate, Jonathan Rothwell, and Bruce Katz “To reset its eco- nomic trajectory, the United States needs to connect the macroeco- nomic goal of increasing ex- ports with the metropolitan reality of export production.” Findings An analysis of the location of production of U.S. exports, particularly in the nation’s 100 largest metro areas in 2008, and between 2003 and 2008 reveals that: n Increasing the nation’s exports holds out the potential of generating a significant number of good-paying jobs in the United States. All told, U.S. exports supported 11.8 million jobs nationally and 7.7 million jobs in the top 100 metro areas in 2008. These jobs amounted to 8.3 percent of the nation’s employment and 8.1 percent of all employment in the largest 100 metros in 2008. These are direct jobs in companies that sell abroad and, to some extent, indirect jobs in firms that are part of the supply chain of exporting companies. n The largest 100 metropolitan areas produce most of the nation’s exports. Home to 65 percent of the nation’s population, the 100 largest metropolitan areas produced an esti- mated 64 percent of U.S. exports in 2008, including 62 percent of U.S. manufactured goods and 75 percent of services. Export activity is highly concentrated. The 10 metropolitan areas with the highest value of exports produced about 43 percent of all the top 100 metro areas’ exports in 2008, even though they contain just 38 percent of the population. n Strong manufacturing and patent producing metropolitan areas generate the highest shares of exports from their output. Manufacturing industries are the most export oriented, so metropolitan areas that specialize in manufacturing tend to export the largest shares of their GMP. Export-oriented metropolitan areas are also significantly more innovative, as defined by their rate of patent production. This may be explained by existing evidence that more innovative firms are more likely to export internationally and that activity reinforces innovation through competition. n Four metropolitan areas doubled the real value of their exports between 2003 and 2008. Houston doubled exports largely through sales of chemicals, while Wichita, KS doubled exports based on its powerful aviation cluster. Computer and electronics led the doubling of Portland’s exports. New Orleans also doubled the value of its exports over the period, driven largely by oil refining. n Export intensive industries pay higher wages than domestic oriented industries in large metropolitan areas. In an analysis of the 94 of the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for every $1 billion in exports of a metro area industry, workers in that industry earn roughly 1 to 2 per- cent higher wages. Even those exporting industry workers without high school diplomas earn a higher wage. This wage effect can be seen even adjusting for worker characteristics, occupa- tion, or the characteristics of the metropolitan area. n Future export growth will come increasingly from large emerging markets. Though Canada and Mexico are the nation’s two largest trading partners, U.S. exports to Brazil, India, and China (the so-called BIC countries) have been increasing rapidly during the last decade, doubling in size between 2003 and 2008. The BIC countries are expected to account for about a fifth of the global gross domestic product in 2010, surpassing the United States for the first time. The metropolitan areas that produce the largest U.S. exports to the BICs are well-positioned to take advantage of the growth of these countries. To reset its economic trajectory, the United States needs to connect the macroeconomic goal of increasing exports with the metropolitan reality of export production. Public and private sector leaders at the metro level need to collaborate and engage actively to leverage already extant export concentrations to create good paying jobs at home. Export Nation: How U.S. cities can lead national export growth
  9. 9. Over the past five years, the Global Cities network has grown GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVE AJoint Project of Brookings and JPMorgan Chase
  10. 10. During this time, economic growth has been uneven +6.3% Jobs, 2009-2014 +3.6% Productivity 2009-2014 -5.0% Median wage, 2009-2014 Source: Brookings, Metro Monitor, January 2016 JOBS WAGESPRODUCTIVITY
  11. 11. Globalization Technology Global cities will continue to be tested by macro forces Urbanization
  12. 12. 29% 1950Urbanization Global Metro Population Global cities will continue to be tested by macro forces Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 revision
  13. 13. 2050 66% Urbanization Global Metro Population Global cities will continue to be tested by macro forces Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 revision
  14. 14. Urbanization 30% of the developing world’s urban residents 880 million people in the developing world live in slums Source: 2015 Habitat GUO estimates Global cities will continue to be tested by macro forces
  15. 15. Globalization Source: James Manyika and others, “Digital globalization,” McKinsey, 2016 Global cities will continue to be tested by macro forces 1980 $3 trillion $30 trillion 20142000 $12 trillion 39% of global GDP
  16. 16. Globalization Source: James Manyika and others, “Digital globalization,” McKinsey, 2016 Source: David Autor et al., “The China Shock,” 2016 jobs lost in the U.S. due to import competition from China, 1999-2011 2.4 million Global cities will continue to be tested by macro forces 1980 $3 trillion $30 trillion 20142000 $12 trillion 39% of global GDP
  17. 17. Technology Source: James Manyika and others, “Disruptive technologies,” McKinsey & Co., 2013 $33trillion /YEAR Estimated impact of 12 technology platforms on the global economy Global cities will continue to be tested by macro forces
  18. 18. Technology Source: Michael Chui and others, “Four Fundamentals of Workplace Automation,” McKinsey & Co. 2015. of US occupations at risk of partial or complete automation 60% Global cities will continue to be tested by macro forces
  19. 19. Global competitiveness What makes a global city?
  20. 20. Global cities must focus on the keys to competitiveness DRIVERS Talent Traded SectorsInnovation
  21. 21. Global cities must focus on the keys to competitiveness DRIVERS Talent Traded SectorsInnovation ENABLERS Governance Infrastructure
  22. 22. How global cities can become more competitive 3 The seven types of global cities 2 What makes a global city? 1
  23. 23. The seven types of global cities 2
  24. 24. Population GDP 13% 32% 123 global cities Share of global totals
  25. 25. Talent Traded sectors Innovation Infrastructure Industry characteristics Economic characteristics Population GDP 13% 32% 123 global cities Share of global totals
  26. 26. 7 types of global citiesTalent Traded sectors Innovation Infrastructure Industry characteristics Economic characteristics Population GDP 13% 32% 123 global cities Share of global totals
  27. 27. Type 1: Global Giants Global Giants (6)
  28. 28. Type 1: Global Giants Global Giants (6) New York City $1.49 trillion 2nd / 123 global metros Nominal GDP, 2015 192 million aviation passengers, 2015 1st / 123 global metros
  29. 29. Asian Anchors (6) Type 2: Asian Anchors
  30. 30. Asian Anchors (6) Type 2: Asian Anchors $81.7 billion 1st / 123 global metros Foreign Direct Investment, 2015 106 megabits/second Average download speed, 2015 1st / 123 global metros Singapore
  31. 31. Emerging Gateways (28) Type 3: Emerging Gateways
  32. 32. Emerging Gateways (28) Type 3: Emerging Gateways 42.5% 48th / 123 global metros higher traded sector productivity compared with national average, 2015 6.2% 105th / 123 global metros of academic publications in top 10 percent of cited papers, 2010-2013 Mexico City
  33. 33. Type 4: Factory China Factory China (22)
  34. 34. Type 4: Factory China Factory China (22) +14.7% 1st / 123 global cities Annual GDP growth, 2000-2015 12.2% of adult population holds a college degree 100th / 123 global cities Hefei
  35. 35. Type 5: Knowledge Capitals Knowledge Capitals (19)
  36. 36. Type 5: Knowledge Capitals Knowledge Capitals (19) $131,073 11th / 123 global cities GDP per worker, 2015 5.19 patents per thousand persons, 2012 2nd / 123 global cities San Diego
  37. 37. Type 6: American Middleweights American Middleweights (16)
  38. 38. Type 6: American Middleweights American Middleweights (16) 5.4% 109th / 123 global cities lower traded sector productivity compared with national average, 2015 14.1% of academic publications in top 10 percent of cited papers, 2010-2013 42nd / 123 global cities Indianapolis
  39. 39. Type 7: International Middleweights International Middleweights (26)
  40. 40. Type 7: International Middleweights International Middleweights (26) $3,403 8th / 123 global cities FDI investment per capita, 2015 1.2% GDP growth, 2000-2015 106th / 123 global cities Barcelona
  41. 41. All cities are global Cities play distinct roles in the global economy The work to engage globally is ongoing Takeaways from Redefining Global Cities
  42. 42. How global cities can become more competitive 3 The seven types of global cities 2 What makes a global city? 1
  43. 43. How global cities can become more competitive 3
  44. 44. Competitive assets should guide local strategies Economy Growth Trade Innovation Talent Infrastructure TradedSectorProd. FDI FDIper capita Ed. attainment Download speed Aviation passengers GDP GDPper worker GDP GDPper worker Sci.research VCinvest. Patents percapita Average across 123 global cities Above average Below average
  45. 45. Economy Growth Trade Innovation Talent Infrastructure Download speed FDI FDIper capita Sci.research VCinvest. Ed. attainment Aviation passengers GDP GDPper worker GDP GDPper worker Patents percapita Source: Brookings, Redefining Global Cities, 2016; Photos: Wikicommons Strategies for Global Giants TradedSectorProd.
  46. 46. Economy Growth Trade Innovation Talent Infrastructure Download speed FDI FDIper capita Sci.research VCinvest. Ed. attainment Aviation passengers GDP GDPper worker GDP GDPper worker Patents percapita Source: Brookings, Redefining Global Cities, 2016; Photos: Wikicommons Strategies for Global Giants TradedSectorProd. LONDON
  47. 47. Strategies for Emerging Gateways Economy Growth Trade Innovation Talent Infrastructure Download speed FDI FDIper capita Sci.research VCinvest. Ed. attainment Aviation passengers GDP GDPper worker GDP GDPper worker Patents percapita TradedSectorProd. Source: Brookings, Redefining Global Cities, 2016; Photos: Wikicommons
  48. 48. Strategies for Emerging Gateways Economy Growth Trade Innovation Talent Infrastructure Download speed FDI FDIper capita Sci.research VCinvest. Ed. attainment Aviation passengers GDP GDPper worker GDP GDPper worker Patents percapita TradedSectorProd. Source: Brookings, Redefining Global Cities, 2016; Photos: Wikicommons iF IDEAS FACTORY SANTIAGO
  49. 49. Strategies for American Middleweights Economy Growth Trade Innovation Talent Infrastructure Download speed FDI FDIper capita Sci.research VCinvest. Ed. attainment Aviation passengers GDP GDPper worker GDP GDPper worker Patents percapita TradedSectorProd. Source: Brookings, Redefining Global Cities, 2016; Photos: Wikicommons
  50. 50. Strategies for American Middleweights Economy Growth Trade Innovation Talent Infrastructure Download speed FDI FDIper capita Sci.research VCinvest. Ed. attainment Aviation passengers GDP GDPper worker GDP GDPper worker Patents percapita TradedSectorProd. Source: Brookings, Redefining Global Cities, 2016; Photos: Wikicommons COLUMBUS
  51. 51. “The problem [is] not globalization, but how the process [is] being managed.” - Joseph Stiglitz Source: “Globalization and its New Discontents,” Project Syndicate, August 2016
  52. 52. GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVE A J O I N T P R OJ ECT O F B R O O K I N GS A N D J P M O R GA N C H AS E AMY LIU Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program @amy_liuw Global Cities Summit September 29, 2016
  53. 53. OrthoWorx AgriNovus Fairbanks Institute Indiana Seed Fund I Indiana Seed Fund II CICP Initiatives and Programs 1 AgriNovus Indiana BioCrossroads Central Indiana Workforce Development Initiative Energy Systems Network Conexus Indiana TechPoint Animal Health and Nutrition Products Value-Added Human Food and Nutrition Products Plant Science and Crop Protection BioCrossroadsLINX IHIE Datalys Center I-STEM Indy Hub IBRI Exhibit Indiana Monarch (formerly INCAPS) AgTech Aerospace & Defense Council Automotive Council Logistics Council Conexus Icon Hire Tech A+ Partners Dream it. Do it. Indiana Conexus Interns Battery Innovation Center BlueIndy EverCar Moving Forward Mira Awards 16 Tech STEM Talent Xpat Xtern IndyX Tech Fellowship TechPoint.org Scale-Ups Tailwind Community 58Members Wabash Heartland Region Cleantech Systems (For-Profit) SWC Indiana BC Initiative (For-Profit) CIWDI (For-Profit)
  54. 54. www.universite-paris-saclay.fr
  55. 55. SC Technical College System’s Division of Economic Development SC Technical College System Organiza)onal Structure

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