Our presentation at the 55th annual Candian Economics Association conference by our economist Graham Dobbs on the changing occupational structures and COVID-19's impacts.

1. Occupational Mobility
during COVID-19
G. Dobbs
04.06.21

2. 2
Occupational
Mobility
Outline
1. Motivation and
Definitions
2. Data
3. Methods
4. Findings
5. Discussion and Future
Research

3. 3
Occupation
specific human
capital drives
wage changes
more than
industry and
firm experience

4. 4
Occupational
mobility can
have significant
costs for
productivity
and lifetime
earnings
OECD,
2019

5. 5
How did Canadian occupational mobility
differ from pre-COVID (2019) to COVID-
19 (2020)?

6. 6
National
Occupation
Classification
Definitions

7. 7 The Canadian labour force survey uses a 6-
month rotating panel design, allowing up to 5/6
of the sample to be captured longitudinally
Statistics Canada, 2017

8. 8
Longitudinal Sample of LFS 2019-2020
Demographics and Exclusions
10 Provinces
Ages 20-64
Individuals
matched by
rotation, gender,
age, individual
ID
Removal of
imputed records Checks for
misidentification

9. 9
Methods
Occupational Mobility Indicator
Within Occupation Groups Mobility
=
�
𝑖𝑖
𝑊𝑊𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 𝐼𝐼𝑡𝑡(𝑁𝑁𝑗𝑗,𝑡𝑡−𝑙𝑙 ≠ 𝑁𝑁𝐽𝐽,𝑡𝑡, 𝑂𝑂𝑗𝑗,𝑡𝑡−𝑙𝑙 = 𝑂𝑂𝐽𝐽,𝑡𝑡)
(Weighted count of movements within a broad occupation group, identified by a 4-digit occupation change)
Across Occupation Groups Mobility
=
�
𝑖𝑖
𝑊𝑊𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 𝐼𝐼𝑡𝑡( 𝑂𝑂𝑗𝑗,𝑡𝑡−𝑙𝑙 ≠ 𝑂𝑂𝐽𝐽,𝑡𝑡)
(Weighted count of movements across broad occupation groups, identified by a 1-digit occupation change)
W: Weight
I: indicatorfunction
i: individual
j , J : origin occupation,destinationoccupation
t: presentperiod
O: broad occupationalgroup, 1-digit occupationcode
N: 4-digitoccupationcode

10. 10
Compared to pre-COVID levels, what are
the differences in movement within the
10 broad occupational groupings?

11. 11 Occupation transitions within a broad
occupational group are higher in 2020 relative to
2019

12. 12
Is occupational mobility across broad
groups greater in 2020?

13. 13
The overall mobility across occupations in 2020 has increased relative to
2019 except for occupations with high educational requirements

14. 14
Where did occupation changers go in
2020?

15. 15
Most common across occupation
changes by origin occupation,
2020
Origin Occupation Group 1st Destination 2nd Destination 3rd Destination
Management Sales and service Business, finance, Trades, transport, equip
Business, finance, admin. Sales and service Management Education, law, social, go
Natural and applied sciences Business, finance, admin. Management *Sales and service
Health Education, law, social, govSales and service Business, finance, admin
Education, law, social, gov't services Business, finance, admin. Health Sales and service
Arts, culture, rec, sport Sales and service Business, finance, Education, law, social, go
Sales and service Business, finance, admin. Management Trades, transport, equip
Trades, transport, equipment Sales and service Management Manufacturing and utilit
Natural resources and agriculture Trades, transport, equipmManagement *Natural and applied scie
Manufacturing and utilities Trades, transport, equipmSales and service *Business, finance, admi
Top 3 Occupations Transitions(Descending)
*New Occupation Group ranked in 2020

16. 16
Compared to pre-COVID levels, what are
the net movements in and out of broad
occupational groups?

17. 17
Methods
Occupational Mobility Indicators
Net Mobility Flows (Between Occupation Groups)
=
Occupational inflow - Occupation outflow
=
Weighted count of movements into a destination occupation - Weighted count of movements
from an origin occupation
=
∑𝑖𝑖 𝑊𝑊𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡−𝑙𝑙 𝐼𝐼𝑡𝑡−1(𝑂𝑂𝑗𝑗,𝑡𝑡−𝑙𝑙 ≠ 𝑂𝑂𝐽𝐽,𝑡𝑡) - ∑𝑖𝑖 𝑊𝑊𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 𝐼𝐼𝑡𝑡(𝑂𝑂𝑗𝑗,𝑡𝑡−𝑙𝑙 ≠ 𝑂𝑂𝐽𝐽,𝑡𝑡)
W: Weight
I: indicator function
i: individual
j , J : origin occupation, destination occupation
t: present period
O: broad occupational group, 1-digit occupation code
N: 4-digit occupation code

18. 18 Net movements between occupational groups in
2019 and 2020 are mixed

19. 19 Net movements between occupational groups in
2019 and 2020 are mixed

20. 20 Net movements between occupational groups in
2019 and 2020 are mixed

21. 21
1 2 3
Conclusion & Discussion
Occupational Mobility
Mobility within and
across occupation
groups was greater
in 2020
Sales & Service,
Business, Finance &
Admin. and
Management
occupations saw the
most inbound
occupational changes
Occupations
directly impacted
by COVID-19 saw a
higher rate of net
flows relative to
2019

22. 22
Future Research
Exploring Occupational Mobility
Seeing both within and across mobility
increase, what are the wage effects of
large occupational redistributions in 2021?
Does occupational mobility occur more at
certain wage or tenure levels?
Is occupational mobility more prevalent in
recent decades?

23. 23
CONTACT
Thank you!
Graham Dobbs
graham.dobbs@lmic-cimt.ca
Economist @ Labour Market Information Council

24. 24
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