Presentation to west of england policy group on megatrends turnover report 30 january [236920]
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Presentation of megatrends report showing job turnover in UK has slowed down
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Presentation to west of england policy group on megatrends turnover report 30 january [236920]
- 1. Has job turnover slowed down? Mark Beatson Chief Economist, CIPD
- 2. • What does the evidence say? • What are the potential explanations? • What are the implications?
- 3. Job separations, 1996-2012 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Jobseparations(%ofemployees) Voluntary Involuntary Source: Office for National Statistics
- 4. Average job tenure, 2001-2011 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Averagetenure(years) Men Women Labour Force Survey, UK, not seasonally adjusted, October-December quarter Source: Office for National Statistics
- 5. Organisation-based labour turnover, 2001-2012 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Medianlabourturnover(%of employees) Source: CIPD Recruitment and Talent Planning surveys.
- 6. Employees looking to change jobs in the next 12 months, 2009-2013 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 %ofemployees Source: CIPD Employee Outlook surveys.
- 7. Characteristics of employees looking to change their job within the next 12 months, Spring 2013 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 All employees Men Women Full-time Part-time 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ <6 months service 6-12 months service 1-2 years service 2-5 years service 5-10 years service 10-15 years service 15-20 years service 20+ years service Private sector Public sector Voluntary sector % of employees Source: CIPD Employee Outlook surveys.
- 8. Average job tenure in selected OECD countries, 2006-2011 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Averagejobtenure(years) 2006 2011 Source: OECD
- 9. Median job tenure in the USA, 2002-2012 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Medianjobtenure(years) Men Women Employed salary workers aged 25 and over Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- 10. What are the potential explanations? • The recession? • Changes in workforce structure? • Impact of employment regulation? • Change within the workplace? • More effective recruitment? • Occupational pensions? • Less dissatisfied employees?
- 11. Voluntary job separations and unemployment, 1996-2012 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 % Voluntary turnover Unemployment Labour Force Survey, UK, not seasonally adjusted, October-December quarter. Source: Office for National Statistics
- 12. Employment protection and average job tenure, 2011 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Averagejobtenure(years) OECD employment protection indicator UK Greece Ireland Denmark Portugal Employment protection indicator covers individual and collective dismissals. Source: OECD
- 13. Employee discontent and likelihood of looking to change job within the next 12 months, Spring 2013 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 All employees Satisfied with job Neutral Dissatisfied with job Engaged Neutral Disengaged Likely to lose job in next 6 months Neutral Unlikely to lose job in next 6 months Easy to get another job Neutral Difficult to get another job % of employees Source: CIPD Employee Outlook survey.
- 14. What are the implications? • Will turnover pick up again? • A more stable workforce? • How to promote fresh thinking? • Internal as substitute for external mobility?
- 15. Employees looking to change jobs in the next 12 months and unfilled vacancies, 2009-2013 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Vacancies(‘000s) lookingtochangejobinnext12 months Looking to change jobs Vacancies Source: CIPD Employee Outlook surveys, ONS. ?
- 16. Thank you!
Editor's Notes
- Follow up previous session on 17 October on Megatrends. Following up publication on reduction in job turnover. Have a few copies of job turnover report with me – plus other report on trust published just before Xmas. Questions – now or at end
- Job tenure is flipside of job turnover
- Intentions – actual turnover rates lower so looks like this does not always lead to action
- Age and length of service differences
- Suggestion turnover goes down when labour market weak – but going down before
- EPL increased post 98 – not greatly but some increase NMW and job hopping?
- Expected correlation because vacancies in part depends on turnover – does this mean turnover expectations are set to increase? But age structure goes other way.