This document provides an overview of autonomous vehicles from the perspective of a state traffic engineer. It discusses definitions of connected and autonomous vehicles and how they differ. The document outlines the state's legislation on autonomous vehicles and truck platooning. It examines the potential technologies that could enable navigation as well as projections for adoption rates. Barriers to adoption like regulations, cost, and liability issues are identified. The document also notes that self-driving vehicles were conceptualized as early as the 1920s in fiction and discusses the state of North Carolina's pavement markings. In conclusion, it emphasizes that connected and autonomous vehicles will revolutionize transportation and impact funding.

1. Preparing for Autonomous
Vehicles
Kevin Lacy, PE, State Traffic Engineer
January 8, 2018

2. WARNING
2
I have more questions than there are
answers.
I have asked the questions but received no
answers.
And What I say is my opinion and it may
prove to be factual …… one day.

3. Nomenclature - Connected
3
Image from www.networkworld.com
Vehicles Connected to:
Each other
• Speed
• Braking
• Other information
needed to make
decisions
Infrastructure
• Roadway conditions
• Signal condition
• Levels of congestion on
various routes
• Much more

4. 4
Nomenclature – Autonomous
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-
MC635_0114dr_P_20160114143938.jpg
http://www.govtech.com/fs/Autonomous-Cars-Could-Increase-Drivership-11-Percent-
Researchers-Estimate.htmlhttps://www.ll.mit.edu/publications/imagespublications/urbanchallenge
1.jpg
http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2015/04/24/365573
.htm

5. 5
AV Bus
AV Shuttles today
Very low speed
aTaxi/Private
These are available today

6. 6
Self Driving Vehicles is Not a New Idea
Screenshot of Wikipedia with documented 1920’s newspaper article

7. 7
Self Driving Vehicles is Not a New Idea
A portion of a 1930 novel Paradise and Iron by Miles J. Brueer first published in
Amazing Stories Quarterly Summer 1930.
https://scifi.stackexchange.com/questions/122557/when-was-the-first-driverless-car-story-written
… She hurried out of the back door; and "Sappho" turned out to be a greenish-black roadster, with wheels four feet high, an extraordinarily
large radiator appropriate to hot climates, headlights set in the top of the hood—and no steering wheel! The machine fascinated me so that I
stood about it curiously instead of mixing with the group of young people.
In fact, I was a little nettled at the people. They seemed to take no particular nor unusual interest in me. Upon introduction they were very
gracious; but they immediately took me for granted as one of them. No one asked me where I came from, nor what my country was like, nor
how I liked it here. Like a group of frolicking children, they seemed intent on the interests of the moment, and accepted everything as it came.
So, I decided to ride with Kaspar in his Sappho.
I waited some minutes for Kaspar to appear. Then I walked all around the curious vehicle, and I finally decided to get into the car and wait there
for Kaspar. So I climbed in and sat down, with a queer feeling at the complete absence of the steering wheel and gear-shift levers. However,
on the dashboard were a great many dials; and something was ticking quietly somewhere inside the machine.
Then there was a "clickety-click" and a whirr of the motor, and the car moved gently away from the curb. It swerved out into the street,
gathered speed, and then turned to the right around a corner. It slowed down for two women crossing the street, and avoided a truck
coming toward us. It gave me an eerie feeling to sit in the thing and have it carry me around automatically.
Then it suddenly dawned on me, that here I was alone in the thing, on an unknown street, in an unknown city, racing along at too high a speed
to jump out, and rapidly getting farther away from places with which I was familiar. How could the machine be controlled? Already I was
completely lost in the city. How and why had the thing started? I had been exceptionally careful not to touch anything, and was sure that no act
of mine had set it off. But I was rather proud that I did not lose my head; I leaned back to think. This was not my first emergency.
The car was carrying me rapidly through a beautiful residence section of the city. I could not help looking about me. It was a veritable Garden of
Eden, and all the more beautiful for the added touch of human art. The lawns were smooth and soft, with half-disclosed statuary among the
shrubbery, or fountains at the end of vistas. Homes spread over the ground or soared into the air like realized dreams, without regard to
expense or material limitations. But, every few minutes my mind came back with a jerk to my own anomalous position.

8. 8
Self Driving Vehicles is Not a New Idea
1957 Advertisement about electricity and
electronics.
Herbie the Love Bug from the 1968 Disney
Shows.
Knight Rider series in the 80’s

9. 9
Potential Navigation Technology
• High Resolution Mapping
• Machine Vision: LIDAR, cameras,
sensors, etc.
• GPS and other signals
• Road Fingerprinting
• Crowd Sourcing
• Connected AV Infrastructure

10. When ??
10
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-68WQ4LKWiTg/VltzSFdmibI/AAAAAAABEwI/jvUXiYz1dyY/s1600/levelsofautonomy.png
Tesla predicts
fully autonomous
available 2018
Google predicts
fully autonomous
available 2020

11. Rate of Adoption of Technology
11

12. • Primarily ownership or equipped
• Autonomous vehicles may never reach 90% ownership
• Transportation on demand concept (Uber, Lyft, etc.) growing at a rapid pace
– May use 90% utilization as the measure of adoption
12
Technology
Years to 90%
Adoption in US
Percent Adoption
per year Barriers to Adoption Rate Benefited Rate of Adoption
Automobiles 75 1.2 Infrastructure, Manufacturing, cost Tax Dollars/Fees Funded infrastructure expansion
Electricity 42 2.1 Infrastructure, Production Tax Dollars/Fees Funded infrastructure expansion
Telephone 73 1.2 Infrastructure Tax Dollars/Fees Funded infrastructure expansion
Radio 23 3.9 Widespread Distribution from single place
Television 13 6.9 Widespread Distribution from single place
Cable/Pay TV
Introduced in the early 1960's never achieved 90%, grew at a
rate of 1.8 per year
Infrastructure, cost, competition
Cell phone 14 6.4 Infrastructure, cost Widespread Distribution from single place
Internet 20 4.5 Initial Infrastructure in place (Telephone & Cable)
Smartphone 3 30.0 infrastructure in place, cell phones
Clothes Washer 76 1.2 Cost
Air Conditioning 53 1.7 Cost
Stove 58 1.6 Cost
Microwave 27 3.3
Connected Vehicle ? Maybe Never The "connected" part of the infrastructure
Autonomous Vehicle ? likely quicker than we expect
Infrastructure in place, manufacturing in place, computer technologies mature
at a much faster pace
Rate of Adoption of Technology

13. Some Potential Barriers
Government
• Regulations
• Security
Cost
• Currently premium options on high end vehicles
• Maintaining the high cost technology
Legal and Liability Issues
• New issues we have not yet encountered
• Who is responsible?
Public Acceptance
• Driving is a popular past time
• Trust
13

14. Certainties with Autonomous Vehicles
14
The Car – will grow smarter and
more efficient, with high-efficient
engines, lighter materials and
autonomous driving vehicles
The Industry – will evolve with new
competition from tech companies,
and suppliers capable of producing
high-tech parts at low prices
The Passenger – will look at cars
differently; sharing cars and using
them as a space to consume media
and make calls
Roadway - Many and most
characteristics about the
transportation infrastructure will not
change for a long time; pavement
and bridges must be maintained
DOT/DMV - The role will evolve, but
how and when is uncertain

15. Rate of Acceptance - How fast AV
services will be accepted, safe,
useful, and successful
Infrastructure Requirements – may
change in response to CV/AV
Migration to electric vehicles –
may change revenue collection
method
15
Public Transit and Freight – may
shift to smaller vehicles and more
demand responsive
Network Management – may
change
Transportation Funding Model –
may evolve in anticipation of the
change
Vehicle Ownership? – may change
to transportation as a service
Uncertainties with Autonomous Vehicles

16. Projection – AV Ownership
16
Current
Corporate
Ownership
Multiple
Ownership
Single
Ownership

17. House Bill 469
House Bill 469 2017 Session became state law December 1, 2017
• Provided several definitions around this technology
• Allows the operation of fully autonomous vehicle if it meets the five
requirements
• Exempts fully autonomous vehicles from certain laws – requirement to have
a license to operate, requirement to have a registration card in the vehicle
• Establishes a minimum age of 12
• States that the registered owner responsible for moving violations the
vehicle may commit
• Prohibits a local government from passing laws or ordinances restricting the
operations of fully autonomous vehicles
• Establishes the Fully Autonomous Vehicle Committee as an advisory
Committee to NCDOT and the Legislature
17

18. House Bill 716
• Truck Platooning (connected Vehicles)
• Passed during the 2017 Session
• Became state law August 1, 2017
– Explicitly provides the DOT the ability to regulate truck platooning
through traffic ordinances
– Our approach:
• Test vendor technology on the NC test bed
• Allow the technology on specific highways (Interstate and high
mobility corridors).
• Considering 30-40 foot spacing, the narrow space prevents infill
• Considering maximum platoons of 3 truck combinations
18

19. 22
 Governor’s Office
 Legislature
 7 Public Agencies
 Law Enforcement
 Local Government
 Academia
CAV Oversight Structure
Blueprint of the various activities for
NC
• High level review of the state of
industry and current initiatives
(US and Internationally)
• Statute review
• Stakeholder workshop
Activities Roadmap

20. Federal Government
NHTSA has issued guidance
• Adopted the SAE definition of levels of Automation
• Asked States not to pass regulations trying to regulate the autonomous vehicle
• History of regulating these areas:
– States regulated drivers
– Feds have regulated the vehicle.
– Preference is to keep these traditional roles
• Continue working on research in the areas of Human factors
– Electronic control system safety (includes cyber security)
– System Performance requirements.
• Committed to a 6-month expedited review of request for exemptions
• Asking for additional authority to help move items quicker
• Recently updated their Rules to be more favorable to bringing technology forward
USDOT has:
• Designated 10 proving grounds to encourage testing of AV technology (NC Turnpike
Authority facilities is one of the 10)
• Smart Cities grants
• V2V and V2I research 20

21. Information Coming from OEMs
21
Add Cricket Noise Here

22. 22
There is little substance being shared, and understandable so.
The first to market with a real solution stands to gain tremendously.
That is the reality of a market based economy.
They are saying
• Provide good markings for the roadways
• Do not pass laws, rules and regulations that limit opportunity
Information Coming from OEMs

23. Why is all this Good News
23
Things that are normal about this are good, and the abnormal
things about this area are good.
A) Laws and regulations typically lag technology by a decade or more
(normal)

24. How Do you Regulate?
Think about lines of code to make something with computers work:
24
F-22 Raptor ~ 2 million lines of code
Boeing 787 Dreamliner ~ 7 million lines of code
Ford GT ~ 100+ million lines of code
Self Driving Vehicle ~ 300 to 400 million maybe more?

25. Why is all this Good News
25
Things that are normal about this are good, and the abnormal
things about this area are good.
A) Laws and regulations typically lag technology by a decade or more
(normal)
B) Industry is cautious about the introduction the technology
(not so normal)

26. Cautious?
Think about technologies of the past where we may not have
understood all the risks very well:
26
It took decades of steamboats and steam
engines exploding to get national regulations.
Thousands lost their lives.
We were sailing around in metal ships long
before we understood how to prepare the metals
for frigid ocean temperatures. Lets not discuss
waterproof compartments.
Can we imagine unleashing a technology
where 1.3 million people worldwide die each
year using that technology? That is 3,287 per
day on average.

27. Why is all this Good News
27
Things that are normal about this are good, and the abnormal
things about this area are good.
A) Laws and regulations typically lag technology by a decade or more
(normal)
B) Industry is cautious about the introduction the technology
(not so normal)
C) OEMs are working to provide vehicles that works in today’s
environment
(normal) - refer to adoption slide

28. You said How Much?
Imagine if it only cost $1,000 per lane mile to equip every road with
something that will allow Autonomous Vehicles to fully operate.
28
NC has over 225,000 lane miles and that would be
equal to $225 million for the $1000 per lane mile,
and $6 billion for the $100 every 20 feet option.
This does not include maintaining the road or the
technology. This is greater than the NC Annual budget.
The United States has 8,656,070 lane miles, and it
would cost $8.7 billion and $252 billion.
Who are we fooling, nothing can be done for $1,000
a mile - let’s say we put a device every 20 feet that
provides all the information needed and it cost $100
to install.
A hypothetical and
fictitious treatment

29. Why is all this Good News
29
Things that are normal about this are good, and the abnormal
things about this area are good.
A) Laws and regulations typically lag technology by a decade or more
(normal)
B) Industry is cautious about the introduction the technology
(not so normal)
C) OEMs are working to provide vehicles that works in today’s
environment
(normal) - refer to adoption slide
D) Everyone and Everything likes good pavement markings
(normal)

30. 30
9.5% 8.2%
57.6%
39.9%
0.0%
11.3%
15.3%
13.7%
90.5%
80.5%
27.1%
46.3%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
2017 NC MOBILE AUDIT
Minimum Retroflectivty - 100
2017 State Totals Failing 2017 State Totals Marginal 2017 State Totals Passing
Interstate Primary All RoutesSecondary
Status of NC Pavement Marking

31. 31
Status of Retroreflectivity Minimum on
State Maintained Roads, 2017 Audit
Type Total Miles
* % Meet
Standard
* Miles Out of
Tolerance
Interstate 1,257 90.5% 120
Primary 13,805 80.5% 2,686
Secondary 64,546 27.1% **45,000
* Estimates are based on random samples during 2017 audit
** Not all secondary roads require pavement marking (~20% unmarked);
this estimate provides a rough order of magnitude

32. Why is all this Good News
32
Things that are normal about this are good, and the abnormal
things about this area are good.
A) Laws and regulations typically lag technology by a decade or more
(normal)
B) Industry is cautious about the introduction the technology
(not so normal)
C) OEMs are working to provide vehicles that works in today’s
environment
(normal) - refer to adoption slide
D) Everyone and Everything likes good pavement markings
(normal)
E) There are many more but my presentation has to end…

33. What is Certain?
• That Connected and Autonomous are on the
near horizon
• CAV will revolutionize the transportation industry
in multiple ways
• CAV will have substantial impact on our day to
day lives (mostly good)
• The way we fund transportation at the State will
have to change
33

34. 34
DOT State Revenue Sources
Motor Fuel Tax
50%
Highway
Use
Tax 20%
Fees
30%
8.0%
5.6%
4.6%3.5%
2.8%
2.1%
Vehicle
Registration
Truck
Registration
Driver Licenses
Certificate of Title
International Registration Plan
Other Fees
SFY 2017

35. We are Confident
• Legislative bodies will figure out the funding
– Already making headway now
• Fatalities will be greatly reduced on our
roadways; moving towards our goal of zero
• Congestion will be less significant in our lives
• Expand mobility to the underserved
35

36. For More Information Contact:
Kevin Lacy, PE
jklacy1@ncdot.gov
http://www.ncav.org/