Pedestrians, Scooters and MaaS oh my
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was presented at MOVE 2019 at London
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Pedestrians, Scooters and MaaS oh my
- 1. Pedestrians, Scooters and MaaS… oh my YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 2. The Revolution Has Begun The city itself is going to change With the blink of an eye YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 3. Yuval, Karmi Yuval Ex Architect, City planner Spatial Economics & Urban Mathematics YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 4. Urban Mathematics Using models to understand the behavior of the city ...intended to serve the researcher's prior opinion and use mathematical models to affront other researchers YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 5. The City IS Transportation The city’s transportation system works just like the vascular model YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 6. What Caused The Biggest Urban Revolution? A new mean of transportation The most popular, public, electric, safe, free and fully autonomous vehicle in the world You have used it today YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 7. The City IS Transportation ...the height of buildings in the city was limited to four floors till Elisha Otis introduced in 1852 the safety Elevator YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 8. The Urban Revolution of Micro-Mobility The Segway story YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 9. With no need for a license, insurance, zero fuel costs and a low price point, bikes and electric scooters are becoming the vehicle that really can replace the car for short urban traffic. Unlike with regular bikes, the electric bike rider sees no obstacle in steep climbs, hot days or long distances. Those bikes are a very convenient means of transportation if you are commuting to work at a distance of 5 to 15 kilometers. The Urban Revolution of Micro-Mobility E-bikes and Scooters YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 10. Why is Micro-Mobility so Impactful? YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 11. ...and how will it co-exist with AVs? YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 12. The AVs and Us AVs are Robots Robots you can trust … but Never trust humans YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 13. Asimov’s car “A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.” YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 14. Negotiating the Right of Way Today, pedestrians make eye contact with drivers before crossing because they… Don’t trust humans YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 15. Aggressive Negotiations Mimic human behavior Human behavior will change YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 16. Very Aggressive Negotiations We must license AVs to kill pedestrians ...at least in designated lanes YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 17. Separate them! Build a fence or something YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 18. Build a fence or something Designated drop points for AVs Divide the City YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 19. Bridges! Tunnels! Destruction of urban fabric Leads to poor neighborhoods ...and yet, some cities will be tempted by such promises YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 20. Educate them! Connect them! Give travelers a kind of an electronic thumb that can stop cars, to hitchhike or to cross the road YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 21. but what about those Crazy Bikers? They do not obey the law that is meant to protect them They are not afraid of Humans Will they wait for Robots? YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 22. The story of the Ejection Seat Fatal accidents in fighter jets Never trust Humans! YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 23. So… will there be no AVs in the city? YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 24. Micro-Mobility is taking over the City YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 25. Pedestrians vs. Bikes vs. Cars - Round 2 Rapid change in mobility options Insufficient regulation People are injured and killed Rage against the newcomers YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 26. Pedestrians vs. Bikes vs. Cars - Round 1 Rapid change in mobility options Insufficient regulation People are injured and killed Rage against the newcomers ... It took the city 50 years to adjust and give in completely YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 27. Who is this Cyclist? We know the pace of the Pedestrian, the cone of vision of the Driver … Cyclist? YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 28. Who is this Cyclist? What is the size of city block that suits Micro-Mobility users? What size of parking should we supply? How far from the destination? YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 29. Is the Revolution that dramatic? YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 30. Was the Elevator Revolution that dramatic? When Elisha Otis introduced the safety elevator at 1852, he Never imagined skyscrapers YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 31. We can’t imagine the real impact We are messing with blood viscosity, clots, oxygen levels YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 32. The change is coming some People will be killed many Businesses will perish few Cities will decay YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 33. Urban Mathematics Using models to understand the behavior of the city ...to try to predict behavior YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 34. Urban Mathematics ...intended to serve the researcher's prior opinion Researcher is a Human Never trust Humans! I may be wrong YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 35. But, I may be right - A Revolution is coming Cooperate B-2-City B-4-City Trust Humans! YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019
- 36. Pedestrians, Scooters and MaaS… oh Ya! YuvalKarmiwww.BoLepo.xyzMOVE2019 BoLepo.XYZ
Editor's Notes
- יובל כרמי לא מוכר לכם כלום. value proposition מתכנן ערים, עוסק בכלכלה עירונית ובמתמטיקה עירונית
- התחבורה היא מערכת הדם של העיר. העיר קיימת רק במקומות אליהם אנשים יכולים להגיע ולסחור. בדיוק כפי שאין לנו איבר בגוף שיכול לחיות ולתפקד בלי דם, אין עיר שיכולה לתפקד בלי שאנשים ינועו בה
- in 1994, Dean Kamen invented the Segway. He thought that by using this vehicle, which is licensed for sidewalks, the way people are experiencing the city will change. It didn’t happen
- בלי רשיון אישי, או לרכב, בלי ביטוח, בלי דלק, קל לקיפול, קל בעליות(!), שקט ומאפשר דיבור תוך כדי נסיעה, נכנס לכל מקום, גם בניגוד לכיוון התנועה, עולה מדרגות, בעל תדמית צעירה, זול לרכישה או השכרה, בלי דמי חנייה,
- Have you ever thought about how the urban streets are going to look like in the age of autonomous cars? How will they fit pedestrians and cyclists? Well, there are several options of addressing this issue and most of which have inherent problems. The kind of problems that could kill people and the kind of problems that will simply turn the city into a terrible place. Robots and humans do not get along well. Robots are too predictable and autonomous cars are… essentially robots.
- We hear many bold claims coming from tech companies these days, boasting about how safe their autonomous cars will be and how much they will save us from those dreadful traffic jams. So many PR statements and so little common sense. It’s not that I do not trust autonomous cars, computer manufacturers or robots, those will work just fine. It’s us humans that will screw the whole thing up.
- The leading model for autonomous car behavior, the one that manufacturers build today is based on the first of Asimov’s 10 laws of robotics (they took it binary so it’s only 3): “A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm”. That’s nice, but there’s a problem with those laws – it’s not written anywhere that we humans have to treat robots the same way.
- Think about it, how do you cross the road today? You make sure the driver sees you and slows down the vehicle before you start crossing. If so, what will happen when you’ll know that the driver is a robot, that always notices you and always avoids hurting you? Well, obviously – you will cross the road almost without checking if there are any cars around. Who cares about the robot or it’s passengers? They’ll stop,and I’ll pass through. Asimov’s model is simple and humane, but its outcome is clear: Pedestrians will take the right of way to cross, making it so the robots traveling in the city will not be able to go any faster than a bike. Causing one huge traffic jam.
- Just a moment, you say, the autonomous car will mimic human behavior, it’s not that it will actually give the right of way to others. “Aggressive negotiations,” calls it Professor Amnon Shashua from Mobilai. Behavior that follows human behavior in that same environment. The problem is again, human behavior will change when those pedestrians will acknowledge that they are facing a robot. It can never work when the pedestrian is sure the car will stop. How long can he wait before jumping into the road? And to go all the way to the crosswalk for that?!? come on.
- So let’s look at that suggestion. First, once you establish the separation you also determined that autonomous cars can not collect and unload passengers at any point, it will have to be done only in predetermined spots. Second and much worse – you propose to divide the city with walls that can not be crossed.
- Bridges! tunnels! Yeah, sure. Ask city planners what happens in such places, the city ceases to function. Good cities are cities where pedestrians have a pleasant and safe feeling of a “street”. The C Clarke cars model will have a real impact on this feature and the city segmentation needed to make them run is even more damaging. I suppose there will be cities that will be tempted by such promises. As there were cities that agreed to let railway lines or highways to cross right through them. The result is always a destruction of the urban fabric and leads to poor neighborhoods in the city.
- So we need to educate the pedestrians and give them reasonable solutions. On the one hand, the robots should be able to travel quickly and on the other hand, pedestrians should avoid jumping to the street because they just can’t wait. We’re running out of options, we need to create some kind of communication between robots and humans, a kind of electronic thumb that can stop cars, to hitchhike or to cross the road. If only we had a device connected to the network at all times … Click on the app and you get a countdown to the moment the cars stop and let you pass, a mobile street light that you hold in your pocket…
- Ok, it might work, maybe, but it’s not just pedestrians crossing the road that are the problem. What about the scooters and bicycle riders on the road? Do you think they can fit in at all? After all, they do not obey any law even today when cars actually kill them. Will they ever give someone a right of way? To extremely prudent robots of all things?!?
- When the ejection seat was invented, the expectation was that the percentage of fatal accidents in fighter jets will drop dramatically. It did not. The pilots learned to rely on the ejection seats and allowed themselves to fly some more with a major malfunction, to eject at lower altitude and at a much higher risk. We are not robots. That’s how we’re built, you’ll come up with “good” technology and we’ll find a way to abuse it. Rage against the machine
- There would certainly be autonomous cars. They will simply not be the solution for traffic congestion and will not be good for the city. Autonomous cars will not resolve traffic jams, quite the opposite in fact. They will not transform the city to a more pleasant place, it will only worsen it. This is not only applicable to large cities. Even small and medium-sized cities will suffer when we’ll start using autonomous cars. Cars will have to go slower than today.
- The change begins with main intersections where cyclists fly through in all directions while cars hesitate to move in fear for the cyclists’ lives. As usual, with no other choice available, some cities are barring cars from entering their city centers. A Slow but persistent change. Any closure of a car lane makes it less attractive to drive. Already in most large cities, cycling is faster than a taxi ride (study in New York). It is a mechanism that accelerates itself the moment you begin to comply with it. The more you accommodate for the cyclists, the less choice there is but to limit cars further. All of that is happening even before cyclists reached “security in large numbers” – the status where there are so many of them that the entire transportation system adapts to them and the rides become significantly safer.
- The statistics reported in the Israeli parliament (2018) were: 210 thousand electric bicycles on roads and sidewalks, 76 deaths in 3 years, and zero legislation. Well, I’ve got some bad news, no effective legislation will be possible in the near future. It is a process that will take years, during which both the law and city planners will follow the current state of affairs and inevitably fall behind trying to balance interests. Any attempt made today to allocate driving or parking lanes for those small vehicles will encounter great opposition as well as come at a great risk to politicians and mayors.
- We are only on the first steps of the urban revolution. It seems as if nothing has changed with the increased usage of said bikes but their related accidents. That was also the case when the car was introduced to the cities. People demanded that every car will be led by a man walking in front of it with a warning flag in hand. The car frightened both horses and pedestrians and claimed road rights. The public was furious, articles were written and demands were made to prevent cars from entering the city… sounds familiar?
- In all cities of the world, for the next twenty years, city centers will be facing a major shift. 20 years is the time it took the car to change the urban perception. It took the city 50 years to adjust to them and give in completely. I would suggest my fellow architects and city planners to rethink their urban perception. Moreover – a cyclist is a creature that we architects and planners hardly know. The pedestrian is familiar to us. For example, he walks at a pace that is slow enough to stop and enter a store spontaneously. The driver in his car is also known to us. We know that he is limited to a narrow cone of vision and does not even see the display window. We know how to plan for either, but the cyclist lives in the middle range. He can stop anywhere as a pedestrian but moves at a relatively high speed, he turns using a small radius like a pedestrian yet is in need of a parking space.
- We live too little to remember a city other than the one that exists now, a city polluted with car smoke and segmented with fences between road lanes. These small electric transportation means are going to drag us all to new type of city. Whether we like it or not, whether we understand it or not. When Elisha Otis introduced the safety elevator at 1852, he never imagined skyscrapers.
- המעלית הייתה הוספה של נימים למערכת הדם. מה שקורה עכשיו זה התעסקות עם העורק הראשי והלב של העיר. אם פה יהיה קריש דם, סתימה או אפילו ירידה בכמות החמצן שיכול לעבור העיר יכולה לסבול מנמק די מהר. במקרה קיצוני היא אפילו יכולה להפוך לזומבי. עיר שלא חיה ולא מתה ומתגלגלת פשוט מכח האינרציה של אוכלוסיה שהולכת ומזדקנת ומתדלדלת אנחנו משנים את דרך בה אנשים נעים בעיר, כלומר אנחנו משנים את העיר עצמה. את הדרך בה אנשים תופסים אותה, מתנהגים בה, ואת הכלכלה שלה. אבל למה זה קריטי? התחבורה היא עורק הדם של העיר. אנחנו משחקים עם מערכת כלי הדם ובקלות יכולים לגרום לנמק במרכז העיר!
- מהפיכה! חייבים לשתף פעולה - העיר והמתכננים יחד עם החברות. אי אפשר פשוט להדחף ולקוות לטוב ערים ועסקים תתחילו לחשוב B2C Business to City or better - B4C Business for Cities