The document discusses predictive versus arbitrary relationships. A predictive relationship is when one variable clearly influences or predicts another variable, like daily temperature predicting sunscreen sales. An arbitrary relationship is when it is unclear which variable causes or predicts the other, like whether wealth impacts education or education impacts wealth. Two examples are then given of problems asking whether relationships between variables are predictive or arbitrary.

1. Is your question?
or
Predictive or Arbitrary Relationships
Predictive Arbitrary

2. Unless your relationship problem specifies a
predictive relationship (with one variable
causing or predicting directly another variable)
then the problem is most likely arbitrary (where
it is unclear the strength or predictive
relationship between two variables).
Predictive or Arbitrary Relationships

3. Unless your relationship problem specifies a
predictive relationship (with one variable
causing or predicting directly another variable)
then the problem is most likely arbitrary (where
it is unclear the strength or predictive
relationship between two variables).
Predictive or Arbitrary Relationships
Predictive
One variable clearly influences or
predicts another variable (e.g., daily
temperature predicts sunscreen sales)

4. Unless your relationship problem specifies a
predictive relationship (with one variable
causing or predicting directly another variable)
then the problem is most likely arbitrary (where
it is unclear the strength or predictive
relationship between two variables).
Predictive or Arbitrary Relationships
Predictive
One variable clearly influences or
predicts another variable (e.g., daily
temperature predicts sunscreen sales)
Arbitrary
It is unclear which variable causes or
predicts which variable (e.g., does
wealth impact the amount of education
you have or does the amount of
education you have impact your
wealth?)

5. Problem #1

6. The director of a health clinic has asked you to determine if
patients’ age predicts their systolic blood pressure.
Students Blood Pressure
Percentile Rankings Age
1 75 33
2 85 47
3 85 31
4 95 32
5 95 43
6 97 25
7 97 48
8 97 52
9 102 65
10 102 54
11 102 59
12 102 70
13 110 62
14 115 46
15 115 65
16 120 77
17 120 52
18 125 79 Advance the slide to see the options

7. Advance the slide to see the answer
The director of a health clinic has asked you to determine if
patients’ age predicts their systolic blood pressure.
Which is it?
Predictive Arbitrary
Students Blood Pressure
Percentile Rankings Age
1 75 33
2 85 47
3 85 31
4 95 32
5 95 43
6 97 25
7 97 48
8 97 52
9 102 65
10 102 54
11 102 59
12 102 70
13 110 62
14 115 46
15 115 65
16 120 77
17 120 52
18 125 79

8. The director of a health clinic has asked you to determine if
patients’ age predicts their systolic blood pressure.
Advance the slide to see the explanation
Which is it?
Predictive Arbitrary
Students Blood Pressure
Percentile Rankings Age
1 75 33
2 85 47
3 85 31
4 95 32
5 95 43
6 97 25
7 97 48
8 97 52
9 102 65
10 102 54
11 102 59
12 102 70
13 110 62
14 115 46
15 115 65
16 120 77
17 120 52
18 125 79

9. Advance the slide to the next problem
Explanation
The director of a health clinic has asked you to determine if
patients’ age predicts their systolic blood pressure.
Which is it?
Predictive Arbitrary
Students Blood Pressure
Percentile Rankings Age
1 75 33
2 85 47
3 85 31
4 95 32
5 95 43
6 97 25
7 97 48
8 97 52
9 102 65
10 102 54
11 102 59
12 102 70
13 110 62
14 115 46
15 115 65
16 120 77
17 120 52
18 125 79
Obviously “predict” would suggest
a predictive relationship.

10. Problem #2

11. The director of a health clinic has asked you see if there is a
relationship between systolic blood pressure and stress.
Advance the slide to see the options
Students Blood Pressure
Reading
Stress
Level (1-5)
1 75 1
2 85 1
3 85 2
4 95 1
5 95 3
6 97 1
7 97 2
8 97 3
9 102 4
10 102 3
11 102 2
12 102 4
13 110 5
14 115 4
15 115 3
16 120 5
17 120 5
18 125 5

12. Advance the slide to see the answer
The director of a health clinic has asked you see if there is a
relationship between systolic blood pressure and stress.
Which is it?
Students Blood Pressure
Reading
Stress
Level (1-5)
1 75 1
2 85 1
3 85 2
4 95 1
5 95 3
6 97 1
7 97 2
8 97 3
9 102 4
10 102 3
11 102 2
12 102 4
13 110 5
14 115 4
15 115 3
16 120 5
17 120 5
18 125 5
Predictive Arbitrary

13. The director of a health clinic has asked you see if there is a
relationship between systolic blood pressure and stress.
Which is it?
Advance the slide to see the explanation
Students Blood Pressure
Reading
Stress
Level (1-5)
1 75 1
2 85 1
3 85 2
4 95 1
5 95 3
6 97 1
7 97 2
8 97 3
9 102 4
10 102 3
11 102 2
12 102 4
13 110 5
14 115 4
15 115 3
16 120 5
17 120 5
18 125 5
Predictive Arbitrary

14. The director of a health clinic has asked you see if there is a
relationship between systolic blood pressure and stress.
The End
Explanation
Students Blood Pressure
Reading
Stress
Level (1-5)
1 75 1
2 85 1
3 85 2
4 95 1
5 95 3
6 97 1
7 97 2
8 97 3
9 102 4
10 102 3
11 102 2
12 102 4
13 110 5
14 115 4
15 115 3
16 120 5
17 120 5
18 125 5
Which is it?
Predictive Arbitrary
Here we are investigating if
there is a relationship not
whether blood pressure
predicts stress or vice a versa.

15. Is your question?
or
Predictive or Arbitrary Relationships
Predictive Arbitrary